Barry Rawn, Brunel University Presentation given at “Unlocking Investment in Africa’s Renewables: What are the Binding Constraints?” event, organised by the Institute of Development Studies and held on 19 January 2017 at the Wellcome Collection, London. For more information, please visit http://www.ids.ac.uk/events/unlocking-investment-in-africa-s-renewables-what-are-the-binding-constraints.

1. Unlocking investment in Africa’s renewables: what are the
binding constraints?
First Panel: Planning
On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria
Presented by Dr Barry Rawn
Thursday 19th January 2017

2. ~180 million
people:
• 50% no
access;
• 30% DG
• 20% on-grid
~1GW per million
people in
industrialised
country, but..
2

3. Peak load about
4.8 GW:
• Banks, hotels,
small industry
left grid due to
intermittency,
power quality
~180 million
people:
• 50% no
access;
• 30% DG
• 20% on-grid
~1GW per million
people in
industrialised
country, but..
12 % Hydro, rest
is gas power
plants in South
1.2 GW of
Northern solar?3

4. Lack of experience in the integration of large
shares of intermittent renewables: how is it a
binding constraint?
Invited to comment :
On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria
Also corroborate:
• human resources,
institutional capacity
• project pipeline issues
(unsolicited proposals)
• partial power sector reform
Current capacity could allow 1.2 GW, dozens
of 100 MW plants: 25%-40% of demand
Source:
Moeller&Poeller
4

5. Investment in training and skills development
is a least regret investment that improves
planning (A Tale of Two Doctors)
Additional Offering:
On-Grid Perspective: Observations from Nigeria
Investor confidence in utility commercial transactions,
operations increases when 3rd party ensures data
transparency and auditability. (EPSRC GCRF Proposal)
(1)
(2)
A working power
system is much
more about people
and processes than
equipment and
calculation.
Key observation:
5

6. Large scale solar: Nigeria not
accustomed to utility-scale PV?
• PRO: Helps reduce congestion
from South to North
• PRO: Stabilises line energisation,
even at night
• CON: Makes frequency control
more difficult.
Acceptance from transmission company
staff (in operations, planning)?
Capacity of transmission company
staff to integrate?
• Grid interconnection studies:
no access to standard
software, no training
• Transmission studies: data are
questionable, no access to
standard software
Particular conditions of Nigeria need particular grid
code, internal learning process.
Worst case for developers, sector:
• Overly stringent requirements
set based on other
jurisdictions
• Potential technical problems
completely missed
• Unhealthy reliance on
consultants and academics
6

7. Large scale solar: PV not accustomed
to Nigeria?
NIGERIA
SOUTH AFRICA
EUROPE
NIGERIA
SOUTH AFRICA
EUROPE
Mutual disruption
and revenue loss:
• If not at high
voltage, grid
availability is low
• Accidental self
discussion,
unless settings
correct
Equipment :
• Some design
considerations to
avoid damage;
some unknowns
Half day measurements of voltage and frequency: nominally
constant within a few percent of specification.
Voltage
Frequency
7

8. Nigerian Context
Status:
• Distribution companies are under-invested, struggle with payment
collection; receive most of their revenue from a few customers.
• Equipment problems, government interferes with transmission
company
• Maintenance problems with generators
Power sector in privatisation process since 2005; energy sold to and from a
bulk energy trader, and transmission company splitting into service provider
and system operator.
Continual load
shedding
occurs;
blackouts
frequent:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Partial
Total
Many industry standard expectations are not met 8

9. Transmission Planning
Normal setting:
• Data flawed, analysis capacity
limited and experience limited;
struggle with pipeline of projects
• Budget moved within government
as corruption safeguard,
constrained
• Significant Forex risk
• Land Use Act leads to right of way
problems
• privatisation layers short term
pain on potential transformation
Nigerian context:
• System assets well characterised
• Cost recovery over decades,
from balance sheet
• Assume predictable and stable
regulated revenue
• Assume stable currency
• Transmission projects
experience delay, failure to
obtain permits
• Unbundling and privatisation
increases uncertainty, requires
stronger regulation, long term
energy policy.
Criteria: invest to increase
reliability, decrease cost of energy,
minimise regret:
Criteria: can be political, donor
driven; increase load allocated,
reliability
Planning task is relatively crucial: large changes in
reliability and viability of sector at stake. 9

10. RIP 1985-1995: Defunct Solar Well: Sagbo Kogi Island, Lagos, Nigeria10

11. • Limited consultation with
community on location,
business model, demand for
electricity
• Revolving fund concept
• Payback period would have
been met this year after 6
years.. But projection from
records was 1%, not 100%
RIP 2011-2021: Battery Charging Station: Mfaminyen, Akampka LGA, Nigeria 11

12. 2011- future: Arnergy Solar Home System: Sagbo Kogi Island, Lagos, Nigeria
• The new
utility?No
subsidy.
• Scratch card
payment
• Started with
solar home
systems (1KW)
• Now commercial
systems
(100kW)
12

13. • Solar parity with diesel
means 30% of
electrified customers
never coming back,
and rural electrification
will happen with solar
• Changing role for the
grid: serving more
resilient regions;
temporary service for
flexible tariff.
• Commercial
installations are in a
valley that needs
support and attention..
but not too much.
Grid serves industrial customers and provides
reliability, trade. 13

14. 70 year old Dr
Abraham Olatoke
35 year old
Dr Tochi
Nwachukwu
Grid infrastructure is run by people: talent discovery and training.14

15. Need engineers building skills
more than PhDs and consultants
• Summer school with
project-driven learning
• Meritocratic selection of
participants
• Embedded observers and
trainers to enhance
NAPTIN courses
• Well.. maybe a
just a few PhDs
15

16. Harnessing Energy, Information
and Communications
Technology for Affordable
Electrification of Africa
June 26-30, 2017
Accra,
Ghana
16