The ShakeOut is the largest earthquake drill in the world based on a scenario of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas fault. A survey of over 1,900 ShakeOut registrants found that organizations, schools, and households reported taking preparedness actions specifically because of participating in the drill, such as improving emergency plans, educating staff on preparedness, and securing equipment. The majority of respondents indicated the ShakeOut helped them learn how to drop, cover, and hold on during shaking and that their organization or household increased preparedness because of the drill. The 2012 ShakeOut appears to have had a positive impact on motivating preparedness actions.

1. The ShakeOut is the largest earthquake drill in the world, and it is based on the
scenario of a M7.8 earthquake caused by a rupture in the San Andreas fault. An
internet survey of California ShakeOut registrants (N=1,923) was conducted to
evaluate the 2012 drill. Organizations (N=906), K-12 schools (N=271), and school
districts (N=76) reported having taken a variety of actions to prepare for earthquakes
specifically because of the ShakeOut drill, including encouraging staff to prepare for
disasters at home (organizations, 60%; schools, 37%; districts, 49%), providing staff
training in earthquake preparedness (organization, 60%; schools, 62%; districts,
71%), and, securing tall or heavy furnishings and equipment (organization,18%;
schools, 13%; districts, 20%). Individual households (N=625) also reported having
engaged in preparedness actions specifically because of the ShakeOut, including
completing a family/household disaster plan (27%), completing first aid training (16%),
securing heavy furnishings to the wall (13%), storing three or more days of food
(22%), storing three or more days of water (22%), retrofitting homes/buildings to meet
the most current building safety codes (8%), purchasing earthquake insurance (5%),
and more. As a whole, the majority of respondents reported that the ShakeOut taught
them how to “drop, cover, and hold on” and helped them learn how to get ready for
earthquakes. Registrants also reported that their organization or household did more
to prepare for earthquakes because of the ShakeOut, and they would recommend the
ShakeOut drill to family and friends. The 2012 California ShakeOut drill was well
received by participants and appears to have had positive effects. Future research
should study the effect of the ShakeOut on participants over time.
Objectives
Discussion
The Great California ShakeOut
Findings from the 2012 California Earthquake Drill
Georgia Halkia, MPH and Michele M. Wood, PhD
California State University, Fullerton
References
The objectives of this study were to:
• Conduct a process and impact evaluation of the 2012 CA
ShakeOut earthquake drill.
• Make policy recommendations to improve future drills.
Gerstenberger, M. C., Wiemer, S., Jones, L. M., & Reasenberg, P. A. (2005). Real-time
forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California. Nature, 435(7040), 328-331. doi:
10.1038/nature03622
Jones, L. M. B., Bernknopf, R., Cox, D., … Wein, A. (2008). The ShakeOut Scenario: U.S.
geological survey open-file report 2008-1150 and California geological survey
premilinary report 25. Retrieved from http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/
Hosseini, M., & Izadkhah, Y. (2006). Earthquake disaster risk management planning in
schools. Disaster Prevention and Management, 15(4), 649-661.
Petal, M., & Green, R. (2009). School disaster readiness: Lessons from the first Great
California ShakeOut. U.S.: Risk RED and Coalition for Global School Safety &
Disaster Prevention Education.
Simpson, D. (2002). Earthquake drills and simulations in community-based training and
preparedness programmes. Disasters, 26(1), 55-69.
Southern California Earthquake Center. (2012). Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills.
Retrieved from http://www.shakeout.org
Wood, M. M., Mileti, D. S., Kano, M., Kelley, M. M., Regan, R., & Bourque, L. B. (2012).
Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards. Risk Analysis,
32(4), 601-615. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01645.x
INDIVIDUALS/HOUSEHOLDS (N=625):
Respondents reported having received information from the ShakeOut
• 66%, about the ShakeOut itself (“some to a lot” of information) Ÿ 47%, how to prepare for earthquakes
• 44%, how to stay safe during an earthquake Ÿ 7%, how to respond and recover after an earthquake
Respondents utilized a variety of resources to prepare for the 2012 ShakeOut Drill
• 68% reviewed earthquake preparedness plans Ÿ 62% encouraged other to participate in the drill
• 49% reviewed drill manuals from the ShakeOut website Ÿ 21% participated in the ShakeOut at work or school
FINDINGS
• The majority 2012 ShakeOut Drill participants have made
improvements in their disaster preparedness plans and
taken steps to prepare for a large earthquake, including:
Ø Reviewing and implementing preparedness plans;
Ø Reducing physical exposure risks; and
Ø Increasing funding for emergency planning.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
• Collaborate and share data with other ECA committees.
• Develop protocol for sharing data with other researchers.
• Recognize ShakeOut “champions” throughout the state.
CHALLENGES
• There is potential bias due to the fact that:
Ø Data are self-reported;
Ø Drill registrants represent the most engaged; however,
research has shown that such persons can have great
impact on those around them by modeling
preparedness actions;
Ø Evaluation participants represent individuals with
internet access and basic computer knowledge.
OPPORTUNITIES
• Mitigation following the drill is an effective tool for motivating
others to take action and prepare for a large earthquake.
• Schools and organizations are underutilized resources that
can help communicate messages to the general public.
• High consistency of message content can increase the
effectiveness of local combined preparedness efforts.
• Drills can serve as a primary mechanism for motivating
earthquake preparedness by delivering and modeling
preparedness actions to multiple engaged publics.
Abstract Results
Methods
Background and Significance
Acknowledgements
• The M7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake led to 3,000
deaths; more than 225,000 were left homeless.
• The last major rupture of the San Andreas fault was in
1857; future ruptures may be catastrophic because of
population and structural density.
• Predictions suggest a 99.7% chance of having an
earthquake that is M6.7 or greater, and a 46% chance of
one M7.5 or greater, within the next 30 years.
• Drills increase safety through practice of actions that
increase survivability during disasters.
• The ShakeOut drill was based on a scenario involving a
M7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas fault, likely
resulting in more than 1,800 deaths and $213 billion in
economic losses.
• Evaluation of the drill is important for future planning.
• ShakeOut Registrants were invited to participate in an
online survey.
• Total sample: N = 4,775.
• California sample: N = 1923.
• 47% represented Organizations;
• 32%, Individuals and Households;
• 19%, K-12 education; and
• 2%, Higher Education Institutions.
• Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS ver. 21.0.
• Comparisons were made by geographic area, racial/ethnic
group, and prior ShakeOut participation.
30%
33% 33%
30%
36%
47% 44%
37%
25%
16%
19%
23%
9%
4% 4%
11%
The ShakeOut How to Prepare for an Earthquake How to Stay Safe During an
Earthquake
How to Respond & Recover After
an Earthquake
A Lot Some A Little None
ORGANIZATIONS (N=906), HIGHER EDUCATION (N=45), K-12 EDUCATION (N=271), AND SCHOOL DISTRICTS (N=76)
The majority of respondents improved their preparedness plans because of the ShakeOut
• 63%, Organizations Ÿ 72%, K-12 Schools
• 58%, Higher Education Ÿ 75%, K-12 Districts
The majority of respondents spent more time educating staff about disaster planning because of the ShakeOut
• 60%, Organizations Ÿ 62%, K-12 Schools
• 67%, Higher Education Ÿ 71%, K-12 Districts
Many had encouraged disaster planning at home because of the ShakeOut
• 60%, Organization Ÿ 37%, K-12 Education
• 51%, Higher Education Ÿ 49%, K-12 Districts
This project was conducted in collaboration with the Southern CA Earthquake Center
Research and Evaluation Committee with support from the Sally Casanova Pre-Doctoral
Scholarship Program. Special thanks to Mark Benthien, SCEC Director for
Communication, Education, and Outreach, and Global ShakeOut Coordinator, and to my
mentor Dr. Michele Wood.
63%
58%
72%
75%
60%
67%
62%
71%
60%
51%
37%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Organizations
(N=913)
Higher Education
(N=140)
K-12 Schools
(N=271)
K-12 Districts
(N=76)
Disaster
Preparedness Plans
Educate Staff in
Disaster Planning
Encourage Disaster
Planning at home
Figure 3.
Has the ShakeOut Participation Led to Improvements?
10%
14%
76%
Somewhat Disagree
Neither Agree Nor Disagree
Strognly Agree
Figure 4.
Has the ShakeOut Helped You Get
Ready For an Earthquake?
(N=1,298)
28%
24%
48% Strongly Disagree
Neither Agree Nor Disagree
Strognly Agree
Figure 5.
Has the ShakeOut Helped You Learn
How to Drop, Cover and Hold On?
(N=1,298)
Figure 6.
Would You Recommend the
ShakeOut to Friends and Family?
(N=1,298)
Figure 2.
What Did You or Your Household Do to Prepare
for the Drill?
(N=625)
Figure 1.
How Much Earthquake Preparedness Information Did
Your Household Receive?
(N=625)
25%
34% 31%
10%
Reviewed Drill Manuals
from ShakeOut Website
Reviewed Preparedness
Plans
Encouraged Others to
Participate in the Drill
Participated in ShakeOut
Meetings at Work/School
4%
5%
91%
Strongly Disagree
Neither Agree Nor Disagree
Strognly Agree