The document summarizes economic coverage from April-May 2017 for Australia. It discusses declining consumer sentiment and expectations of weak economic and employment growth. The IMF projects stronger GDP and employment growth for Australia than Treasury forecasts. The budget includes new taxes on banks and businesses using foreign workers, measures around housing affordability, and infrastructure spending. Retailers face challenges from Amazon's imminent arrival and discretionary spending is expected to decline.
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman IndiaAklanta Kalita
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman IndiaAklanta Kalita
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
Discussion of 2017 china economic survey by Vincent Koen (OECD)HKUST IEMS
This seminar discussed the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of China, which assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. The event was co-organized and discussed by The French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC), The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS).
For more information please visit: iems.ust.hk/cefc
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The minimum wage helps support family incomes, reducing inequality and poverty, but as a slide deck from the Council of Economic Advisers shows, as the real value of the minimum wage has been allowed to erode, it has stopped serving this important purpose.
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Global insurance premium volumes passed a new benchmark high of USD 5 trillion in 2018. Global life premium growth was weak, but there was solid performance in non-life in 2018.
The central narrative of this year's annual world insurance sigma is the continued rise of the emerging markets, mostly emerging Asia and China in particular, as the main drivers of industry growth. From 11% in 2018, China's share of global premiums will rise to 20% by 2029. China remains on course to become the world's biggest insurance market by mid-2030s. The whole of Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of the global premiums by 2029.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts close to 3% global premium growth in real terms per annum in 2019/20, against a slowing but still positive economic backdrop. Advanced market premiums will grow by 1.5%, and emerging markets by 7.9%. China will be the largest contributor, in both life and non-life. Overall, however, the advanced markets will still provide almost half of additional premiums in absolute terms in the next two years.
SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
HealthView Services’ 2016 Retirement Health Care Costs Data Report explores emerging trends and provides
detailed projections of health care expenses in retirement.
The paper will address the impact of rising in-retirement health care inflation, the elimination of Social Security
filing strategies, and adjustments to Medicare-surcharge brackets on future health care costs.
The Report also outlines costs related to state of residence, years to retirement, extent of coverage, gender, health
status, and income: all of which must be considered by financial advisors when planning for future medical
expenses at the individual level.
Finally, some time will be spent analyzing investment strategies, including personal time horizons (both before
and during retirement) and the adjustment of income replacement ratios, to minimize the effect of rising health
care on retirement budgets.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we discuss China’s GDP release for Q2:2016, policy stance of Bank of England and IMF’s latest global growth forecast in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we present analysis of the trends emanating out of the recent releases on Monsoon progress, IIP, Inflation, Trade and CII’s Business Outlook Survey Results for Q1FY17. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policy documents released during June-July 2016. In Focus of the Month,the topic ‘Transforming Healthcare in India' has been covered.
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the economic prospects of US economy and the India-Mauritius tax pact in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Trade and Currency. Sector in Focus section discusses the prospects of e-commerce industry in India. In Focus of the Month, we discuss the impact of monsoons on the Indian economy. Special Feature carries an article on growth and job creation by Ms. A. Srija, Director, NITI Aayog.
US GDP growth slowed down once again in first quarter of 2016 amid signs of a global economic slowdown. Both consumers and businesses cut back on spending and US exports were hurt by economic weakness in overseas markets. Continued economic weakness, subpar inflation and global pressures are likely to cause the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hikes this year from what had been expected. Closer home, in a significant move, India and Mauritius signed a landmark tax pact, aimed at tackling black money. The government expects the Protocol to tackle treaty abuse and round tripping of funds, curb revenue loss, prevent double non-taxation, streamline the flow of investment and stimulate the flow of exchange of information between India and Mauritius.
Discussion of 2017 china economic survey by Vincent Koen (OECD)HKUST IEMS
This seminar discussed the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of China, which assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. The event was co-organized and discussed by The French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC), The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS).
For more information please visit: iems.ust.hk/cefc
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The minimum wage helps support family incomes, reducing inequality and poverty, but as a slide deck from the Council of Economic Advisers shows, as the real value of the minimum wage has been allowed to erode, it has stopped serving this important purpose.
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Global insurance premium volumes passed a new benchmark high of USD 5 trillion in 2018. Global life premium growth was weak, but there was solid performance in non-life in 2018.
The central narrative of this year's annual world insurance sigma is the continued rise of the emerging markets, mostly emerging Asia and China in particular, as the main drivers of industry growth. From 11% in 2018, China's share of global premiums will rise to 20% by 2029. China remains on course to become the world's biggest insurance market by mid-2030s. The whole of Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of the global premiums by 2029.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts close to 3% global premium growth in real terms per annum in 2019/20, against a slowing but still positive economic backdrop. Advanced market premiums will grow by 1.5%, and emerging markets by 7.9%. China will be the largest contributor, in both life and non-life. Overall, however, the advanced markets will still provide almost half of additional premiums in absolute terms in the next two years.
SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
HealthView Services’ 2016 Retirement Health Care Costs Data Report explores emerging trends and provides
detailed projections of health care expenses in retirement.
The paper will address the impact of rising in-retirement health care inflation, the elimination of Social Security
filing strategies, and adjustments to Medicare-surcharge brackets on future health care costs.
The Report also outlines costs related to state of residence, years to retirement, extent of coverage, gender, health
status, and income: all of which must be considered by financial advisors when planning for future medical
expenses at the individual level.
Finally, some time will be spent analyzing investment strategies, including personal time horizons (both before
and during retirement) and the adjustment of income replacement ratios, to minimize the effect of rising health
care on retirement budgets.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we discuss China’s GDP release for Q2:2016, policy stance of Bank of England and IMF’s latest global growth forecast in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we present analysis of the trends emanating out of the recent releases on Monsoon progress, IIP, Inflation, Trade and CII’s Business Outlook Survey Results for Q1FY17. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policy documents released during June-July 2016. In Focus of the Month,the topic ‘Transforming Healthcare in India' has been covered.
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the economic prospects of US economy and the India-Mauritius tax pact in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Trade and Currency. Sector in Focus section discusses the prospects of e-commerce industry in India. In Focus of the Month, we discuss the impact of monsoons on the Indian economy. Special Feature carries an article on growth and job creation by Ms. A. Srija, Director, NITI Aayog.
US GDP growth slowed down once again in first quarter of 2016 amid signs of a global economic slowdown. Both consumers and businesses cut back on spending and US exports were hurt by economic weakness in overseas markets. Continued economic weakness, subpar inflation and global pressures are likely to cause the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hikes this year from what had been expected. Closer home, in a significant move, India and Mauritius signed a landmark tax pact, aimed at tackling black money. The government expects the Protocol to tackle treaty abuse and round tripping of funds, curb revenue loss, prevent double non-taxation, streamline the flow of investment and stimulate the flow of exchange of information between India and Mauritius.
This is presentation discusses job quality in Canada as well as comparing Canada job quality with other countries like Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Spain and Greece.
The purpose of this monthly report is to provide you with an opportunity to better understand recent news at both a macro & micro level, to understand topical trends covered in the media around the economy and the contingent workforce - both locally & globally, and to discuss how these may impact business in Australia and New Zealand.
Highlights
• As last newsletter predicted, manufacturing recovery has begun.
• Yet, exports will continue to stay depressed, SMEs will take a while to feel the positive swing.
• Prospects for emerging economies brighten, capital flows in.
• Inflows are notoriously fickle, so watch out for any turnaround if political factors disappoint.
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers are coming in clearer every month as Indian manufacturing recovers, thanks to strong domestic demand, due in large part to money from the pay commission, NREGS, high support prices for agri products last year etc. The fiscal stimulus began much before the global crisis hit India. We are not in anyway close to double digit growth, but the slump does seem to be over. Meanwhile, the stock market believes that all is well with the world, which isn’t true, of course, and if the election outcome disappoints in a fractured mandate, expect a rude shock once again.
Explore the latest economic trends in our region
Get the latest on economic trends at the local, state and national level from Professor of Banking and Economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association, Harry Davis, PhD.
What is your assessment of our local economy?
Speaker: Harry Davis, PhD
Dr. Harry M. Davis is the Professor of Banking (1980) and Economist (1981) for the North Carolina Bankers Association. He is professor of Finance and past Chair of the Department of Finance, Banking, and Insurance at Appalachian State University (1981-1998).
As the North Carolina Bankers Association Economist, Dr. Davis puts together quarterly economic forecasts that are carried by various news outlets. Dr. Davis is frequently interviewed throughout the year by newspapers, television, and radio stations for stories on the economy and banking. Dr. Davis is a frequent speaker at state, regional and national banking conventions on economic and banking issues.
This year, we are excited to welcome members of the Carolinas Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives (CACCE) to the Briefing as our special guests.
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce was chosen to host the CACCE 2016 Annual Management Conference. Over 100 Chamber executives will be in attendance at the breakfast briefing to get the latest on economic forecasts.
Economic Outlook Briefing with Dr. Harry DavisChela Tu
Explore the latest economic trends in our region
Get the latest on economic trends at the local, state and national level from Professor of Banking and Economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association, Harry Davis, PhD.
What is your assessment of our local economy? Click here to take the Economic Conditions Survey. Results will be shared at the Briefing.
Speaker: Harry Davis, PhD
Dr. Harry M. Davis is the Professor of Banking (1980) and Economist (1981) for the North Carolina Bankers Association. He is professor of Finance and past Chair of the Department of Finance, Banking, and Insurance at Appalachian State University (1981-1998).
As the North Carolina Bankers Association Economist, Dr. Davis puts together quarterly economic forecasts that are carried by various news outlets. Dr. Davis is frequently interviewed throughout the year by newspapers, television, and radio stations for stories on the economy and banking. Dr. Davis is a frequent speaker at state, regional and national banking conventions on economic and banking issues.
This year, we are excited to welcome members of the Carolinas Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives (CACCE) to the Briefing as our special guests.
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce was chosen to host the CACCE 2016 Annual Management Conference. Over 100 Chamber executives will be in attendance at the breakfast briefing to get the latest on economic forecasts.
November 2018 Economic Minute with Dennis HoffmanShay Moser
The Director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute and Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman shares the arithmetic on whether 3 percent gross domestic product and above is sustainable and why it matters. Listen to his presentation here: https://news.wpcarey.asu.edu/20181115-question-du-jour-about-gdp-growth
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 320,000 in the week ending February 28, 2015. The four-week moving average was 304,750. The February employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% to 5.5%.
Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
Similar to Monthly media brief - April/May 2017 (20)
The purpose of this monthly report is to provide you with an opportunity to better understand recent news at both a macro & micro level, to understand topical trends covered in the media around the economy and the contingent workforce - both locally & globally, and to discuss how these may impact business in Australia and New Zealand.
The purpose of this monthly report is to provide you with an opportunity to better understand recent news at both a macro & micro level, to understand topical trends covered in the media around the economy and the contingent workforce - both locally & globally, and to discuss how these may impact business in Australia and New Zealand.
The purpose of this monthly report is to provide you with an opportunity to better understand recent news at both a macro & micro level, to understand topical trends covered in the media around the economy and the contingent workforce - both locally & globally, and to discuss how these may impact business in Australia and New Zealand.
The purpose of this monthly report is to provide you with an opportunity to better understand recent news at both a macro & micro level, to understand topical trends covered in the media around the economy and the contingent workforce - both locally & globally, and to discuss how these may impact business in Australia and New Zealand.
Contingent Workforce Management Benchmark ReportCXC Global A/NZ
The Contingent Workforce Management Benchmark Report was originally presented by Jenni Nelson, Principal Consultant at HCMS for the ATC's Flexible Workforce Conference in Sydney, Australia.
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If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
3. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
Consumer sentiment continues to slide, amidst
what is starting to be called a ‘retail recession’.
In April, sentiment inched lower, as consumers
worried about the economic outlook, which
overshadowed what was growing optimism about
the state of family finances. A survey by the
Melbourne Institute and Westpac found sentiment
dropped 0.7% in April after a rise of 0.1% in March
The index is still up on the same time last year.
However, the latest data marks the fifth
consecutive month when the index has been
below 100 - indicating that pessimists are
slightly outnumbering optimists
Expectations for the economic outlook over
the next 12 months fell 6.5 per cent, and the
assessment of economic conditions for the
next five years dropped 2.7 per cent.
Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, felt
confidence had held up well in the face of
media attention over housing affordability and
growing geopolitical tensions globally.
The IMF remains upbeat about Australia’s
economy, forecasting far better economic
growth than the latest Treasury forecasts,
despite the political uncertainties created by
Brexit and US President Donald Trump.
4. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
From Business Insider:
• In an update to the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF puts GDP
in Australia at 3.1% for 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016, and at 3% for
next year
• The IMF expects inflation to hit 2% this year, from 1.3% last year, and
for unemployment to drop to 5.2% from 5.7%
• The IMF forecasts the world economy to grow at 3.5% in 2017, up
from 3.1% last year, and 3.6% in 2018
• The new projection for 2017 is marginally higher than what was
expected in the last update to the World Economic Outlook
• “This improvement comes primarily from good economic news
for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for
higher growth this year in the United States,” says the IMF.
• The IMF points to improved commodity prices.
• Natural gas prices have increased in Europe on account of supply
tightening and higher oil prices.
• “Coal prices have rallied, by 21%, following government-led
reductions in coal production in China and outages in Australia
that affected production and shipment,” says the IMF.
5. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
Capital Economics chief Australian
economist, Paul Dales, said consumer
confidence has been trending down for
the last six months or so.
"That's consistent with the idea that the
outlook for employment isn't particularly
strong, the outlook for wage growth isn't
particularly strong, so households aren't
about to go out and start spending a lot
more," he told ABC News.
Consumer
Sentiment
From the ABC:
6. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
There’s mild hysteria about the imminent arrival of Amazon in
Australia (largely from Australian bricks & mortar retailers with
less-than-savvy online business models). Economists are warning
the discretionary retail sector is heading for a recession. And with
little in the Federal budget to make retailers more optimistic –
whether that’s in the rising cost of living or the zero wages growth
expectation – it’s expected Australians will be shopping, mostly,
for the essentials.
The Retail Sector: Here’s an example of what’s happening: a
bearish Credit Suisse note triggered a sell-
down of Myer shares on Monday of this week.
The stock lost 10%. It rose again by 3% on
Wednesday, but those gains were wiped on
Thursday when it lost ANOTHER 3.2%. Ouch.
Myer is getting a lot of heat in the media at
the moment, due to recent performance
numbers. But analysts also have also
downgraded Harvey Norman & JB Hi-Fi this
week, after reviewing the likely hit Amazon
will have on our retail sector.
It’s surprising, this recent ‘shock’ about
Amazon, as the sector has known about
their arrival for some time. Speculation is
rife, that the only thing that will save our
local retail sector against the global online
shopping giant, is political lobbying with
the goal of levelling the playing field with
respect to taxation of international
competitors, operating in Australia.
7. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The banks are feeling hard done by. They’ve all come out whining
about the bank levy announced by the Treasurer on Tuesday night.
The message across each of the four big banks, was very consistent.
Firstly the banks…
Westpac’s CEO, Brian Hartzer:
• Described the bank levy as a ‘stealth tax’
• It will likely increase interest of borrowers, and also described it
as a hit on the retirement savings of millions of Australia
• There’s no ‘magic pudding’, he believes the “cost of any new
tax is ultimately borne by shareholders, borrowers, depositor
and employees”
ANZ Banking Group chief, Shayne Elliott:
• described the tax as "regrettable policy"
• said it failed to recognise the banking sector is already the largest
taxpayer in corporate Australia contributing $11.5 billion each year
to government revenue
• "We believe the initial public support for the tax will prove to be
misplaced and the speed which it is likely to pass into law highlights
how divisive the banking industry's relationship with many in
parliament and the broader community has become," he said
8. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The banks…
NAB chief, Andrew Thorburn:
• Said the tax will “impact millions of everyday Australians who
are employees, customers or shareholders of banks”
• “It’s not just a tax on a bank. It’s a tax on every Australian who
benefits from, and is part of, our industry”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief executive, Ian Narev:
• The cost of the bank levy would be borne by "customers or
shareholders, or a combination of both"
• To CBA staff he described the tax as "bad policy"
• "There was no consultation with the banking system about a tax
that will impact on economic growth and the strength of our
banks," he said
The banks are being called the ‘biggest losers’ from this budget, who
will face increased taxes from 1 July worth $6.2bn over four years.
9. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
Business…
• Business will need to pay new levies for foreign workers, raising $1.2b
over 4 years
• Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of more than $10m
– $5k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work
visa
– $1.8k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa
(which will replace the 457 visa)
• Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of less than $10m
– $3k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work
visa
– $1.2k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa
(which will replace the 457 visa)
• The levy on businesses using foreign workers will fund up to 300,000
apprenticeships and traineeships over four years
• The budget confirms the government’s intention to legislate the rest
of its $48bn 10-year company tax cut plan, and continues the $20,000
instant asset write-off facility for small businesses below $10m
turnover for another year
• Propose to raise $318m in revenue by extending a black economy
crackdown to contractors in the courier and cleaning industries
• The most bullish forecast might be the 3% growth in wages the
Treasurer is counting on in two years' time coinciding with a drop in
the unemployment rate to 5.5% by June 2019
10. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
Housing…
• The government will increase the capital gains tax discount
from 50% to 60% for residents who choose to invest in
affordable housing
• Harsher laws for foreign property owners as a means of
addressing housing affordability
• Foreign owners of property in Australia who leave it unoccupied
or not genuinely available for rent at least six months of the
year will be taxed
• Voluntary contributions to superannuation will be available for
withdrawal for a first home deposit. Up to $30,000 can be
contributed and withdrawals allowed from July 2018 onwards.
A person aged 65 or over will be allowed to make a non-
concessional contribution of up to $300,000 from the proceeds
of selling their home
• Negative gearing perks are being tightened with deductions of
travel expenses for residential rental property being eliminated.
They expect savings to the budget of $540m over four years
• Managed investment trusts will be enabled to invest in
affordable housing
11. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
FinTech…
• As a means of encouraging growth in the FinTech sector in
Australia, Bitcoin users will no longer be taxed twice, with bitcoin
being increasingly considered ‘money’. Currently, Bitcoin is as
‘intangible property’ for GST purposes so people can effectively
pay GST twice – once on the purchase of the currency and again on
its use. The purchase of digital currency will no longer be subject
to GST. It’s estimated to have a small but unquantifiable decrease
in GST collections
Infrastructure…
• The government claims it will invest $75bn into a 10 year
infrastructure program. This includes a $10bn National Rail
Program to improve connections between cities and regions
• Other eligible projects include Adelink, Brisbane Metro,
Tullamarine Rail link, the Brisbane Cross River Rail and the Western
Sydney Airport Rail link
Education…
• Higher education reforms announced before the budget, including
an efficiency dividend and increases in fees, will rase $3.756bn
over four years
12. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Economic Outlook
The Budget:
Welfare
Health
Tax
Business
Education
Housing
$A
The rest..
• The replacement of the 457 visa will cost $65.3m over four years.
Changes to visa application charges across the board is forecast to
raise $410m
• The Coalition is bringing forward the timetable to increase
spending on defence to 2% of GDP, three years earlier than
originally planned. The 2020-21 allocation of $42bn is up from
$34.6bn next financial year
• A personal tax hike, in the form of a 0.5% Medicare levy, from
2019 for people earning over $21, 655 to fund the NDIS
• Welfare recipients will face drug testing
14. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Rise in job ads in
April 2017,
compared to the
March, according
to SEEK
+1.4%
Jobs Outlook
• The data in March was smashing it. According to the ABS,
employment increased by a massive 60,900 in seasonally
adjusted terms, easily surpassing the 20,000 increase
expected by economists.
• The lift in employment was the largest since September
2015, and the sixth consecutive month with an increase.
Over that period, full-time employment increased by 67,800,
or 0.8%, marking the first time since August 2016 that it rose
from a year earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100,
or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015.
Jobs Outlook:
Over that period, full-time employment
increased by 67,800, or 0.8%, marking the first
time since August 2016 that it rose from a year
earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100,
or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015.
15. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Jobs Outlook
• Roy Morgan’s data takes a different perspective. What they
call Australia’s ‘real’ unemployment was, for April, unchanged
at 9.3% (1.217 million Australians looking for work).
• In addition for the eighth straight month more than 1 million
Australians were under-employed in April – now 1.090 million
(8.3% of the workforce)
• This is a total of 2.307 million Australians (17.6% of the
workforce) looking for work or looking for more work
• In April the total Australian workforce was 13,133,000 (up
323,000 in a year) and employment grew strongly to
11,916,000 (up 440,000)
• However the increase in employment was entirely driven by a
large increase in part-time employment which rose 471,000
to 4,300,000 while full-time employment fell 31,000 to
7,616,000
• So while real unemployment at 9.3% is down 1.1% from a
year ago, under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.3% over the
same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct
consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time
employment at the expense of full-time jobs
• The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially
higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2017 (5.9%)
Jobs Outlook:
16. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
• About 800 workers have been stood down
from work at a construction site in Darwin that
is part of the $50 billion Ichthys LNG project
headed by Japanese energy giant Inpex
• The workers were “demobilised” by contractor
Laing O’Rourke this morning following a
dispute with Japanese firm Kawasaki Heavy
Industries over the construction of four
cryogenic tanks. Laing O’Rourke reportedly
believes Kawasaki owes it over $200 million
• About 640 of those stood down are direct
employees and the rest subcontractors
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Jobs Outlook
Other news in jobs…
17. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Jobs Outlook
And on a lighter note in jobs, you couldn’t have
missed the delightfully (not) white Labor Party
ad, about ‘Australians first’ for Australian jobs.
The ad was a shocker. Now taken off-air, it
features Labor leader Bill Shorten discussing
jobs for Australians in front of a group of people
in workwear, almost all of whom appear to be
white. The ad had the famous hashtag,
#OscarsSoWhite, attributed to it.
Other news in jobs…
19. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Contingent Workforce
The NSW Government:
• The NSW Government is spending up big on
contingent labour
• The largest category of workers are in the ICT
category with roles such as software developers,
network engineers and IT managers. Last year, the
biggest category of contingent labour with the NSW
government, was administration roles
• They’re defining ‘contingent labour’ as people
employed by a recruitment agency and hired by
agencies in order to fill a skills gap
• In 2015/26 the state government spend $1.1b on
contingent labour, up from $503m in 2011/2
• In 2016, 2.3% of public sector workforce in NSW
was contingent (which, they’re saying is around
7,571 FTE)
Contingent Workforce..
20. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
General News:
Ongoing coverage of the increasing use of contingent
labour both in Australia & across the globe
• There’s not a lot of research, which is of a high
standard. A recent survey by the Brandon Hall Group
(a US based HCM group) on contingent labour. Here
are some of the findings:
Contingent Workforce..
1. The research also shows that nearly ¾ of
organisations say their contingent workforce is
effective or very effective, and more than 70% believe
the use of contingent labour is strategic to specific
business functions or to the business as a whole
2. Overall, about half of organisations plan to increase
spending on contingent labour over the next year
including 60% of small organisations (under 1,000
employees), 38% of mid-size companies (1,000-9,999
employees), and 44% of large employers (10,000+)
3. But the division of labour depends quite a bit on the
demographic. At large organisations, paid interns and
staffing firm referrals are utilised most often, while
independent contractors are most prevalent at mid-
size and small organisations. Interestingly, high-
performing organisations use retirees almost three
times as frequently than other organisations
Contingent Workforce
21. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
According to Bullhorn, the
partnership will develop a
seamless, closed-loop
integration between the
SEEK job portal and Bullhorn
Applicant Tracking
System/Customer
Relationship Management,
available as part of
Bullhorn’s marketplace
effective immediately
Bullhorn, a global
provider of customer
relationship management
software for the staffing
and recruiting industries,
has announced that it has
partnered with Australian
job board SEEK
From HR Dive and the
recent ‘WorkdatWork
Total Rewards
Conference’ in the US
HR people are under the
pump, and increasingly
being called upon to do
more with less.
Tightening resources,
changing technologies
and frustrated employees
calling for more flexibility
have forced HR
professionals to find
adaptable workforce
solutions that fit a
shifting model
Contingent Workforce..
Contingent Workforce
22. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
Six categories of contingent workers, have been
identified:
1. Freelancers & independent contractors
2. Temporary & seasonal workers
3. Professional service providers
4. Outsourced service providers
5. Agency temp workers
6. Special cases
(WorldatWork’s Total Rewards Conference)
The three top reasons stated for utilising contingent
workers were:
1. Staffing flexibility
2. A need to bring hard-to-find skillsets in-house
3. Cost savings
Contingent Workforce..
A
B
C
Contingent Workforce
23. Fusion
PowerPoint Presentation
• Worker classification is hard to achieve, especially in light of
the litigation at play with Uber in the US (and increasingly
around the world)
• Key issues include length of engagement, employee
integration and even healthcare
• the increase in self-employment, has doubled over the last
four decades in the UK to reach 16% of the UK labour market
and continues to rise
• It has been predicted that the UK could reach 50 per cent by
the end of the next decade.
• A recent Deloitte study of multinationals found that around
a third of their workforces are contingent, and 51% of
business leaders believe that figure will increase within the
next five years
• Upwork says that, in the US, one in three workers is now
freelance – a figure it claims could hit 50 per cent by 2020
• The sole trader freelancer is becoming more common than
the small business owner, and more people are now in the
‘grey area’ between employment and self-employment
Contingent Workforce..
Contingent Workforce