Money, Banking, and Financial MarketsChapter 17Moneta.docx

Money, Banking,
and Financial Markets
Chapter 17:
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
Power Point Slides by Jim Butkiewicz
CHAPTER 17 Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
Learning Objectives
This chapter introduces you to issues involving:
Exchange rates and stabilization policy
The costs of exchange-rate volatility
Exchange-rate policies
Fixed exchange rates
Currency unions
Monetary Policy & Exchange Rates
1
1
This chapter examines exchange-rate policy.
Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy
Monetary policy actions change exchange rates:
An increase in interest rates reduces net capital outflows and
appreciates the currency.
This is part of the transmission of monetary policy.

Many non-monetary factors can change exchange rates:
A loss of confidence by asset holders or a shift in commodity
prices will change exchange rates.
If such events destabilize the economy, a central bank will react
attempting to restore stability.
2
2
Shifts in monetary policy can be causes of exchange-rate
movements or reactions to exchange-rate movements.
Exchange Rates and Aggregate Expenditure
Assume that confidence in the country of Boversia improves,
reducing net capital outflows (NCO) in terms of the local
currency (the bover).
The NCO curve shifts left, appreciating the real exchange rate
(ε) and reducing net exports (NX).
The fall in NX shifts the AE curve to the left.
If the real interest rate is held constant, the shift of AE causes a
recession.
3
3
A loss of confidence shifts NCO to the right, increasing NX,
shifting AE to the right, and creating an economic boom and
increased inflation.

Figure 17.1 Rising Confidence in Boversia
When Boversia’s assets become more attractive to foreign
savers, its net capital outflows fall and its real exchange rate
rises. The higher exchange rate reduces net exports (A), shifting
the aggregate expenditure curve to the left (B). If the central
bank holds the real interest rate constant, output falls.
Real exchange rate, ε
Bovers
(A)
NCO1
NCO2
NX
Real interest rate, r
Output, Y
(B)
AE1
AE2
Y*
Real interest rate chosen by central bank
Offsetting Exchange-Rate Shocks
To keep real output at potential after the improvement in
confidence, the central bank lowers the real interest rate.
The lower real interest rate increases net capital outflows and
depreciates the real exchange rate part of the way back to its

original value, so net exports remain lower than their original
value.
The lower real interest rate increases investment and
consumption, offsetting the fall in net exports and keeping real
output at potential.
5
5
The central bank could lower rates further to keep net exports at
their original value, but this is not necessary to maintain output
stability.
Figure 17.2 Rising Confidence and Output Stabilization
As in Figure 17.1, higher confidence in Boversia shifts both the
NCO curve and the AE curve to the left. But now the central
bank reduces the real interest rate to keep output at potential
(B). This action shifts the NCO curve to the right but does not
fully offset the shift caused by higher confidence. The real
exchange rate rises above its initial level (A).
ε
Bovers
(A)
NCO1
NCO2
NX
NCO3
Effect of r
Effect of higher confidence
r

Y
(B)
AE1
AE2
Y*
Confidence and Stability
A decrease in confidence shifts NCO right, reducing the real
exchange rate and shifting AE right, increasing output.
The change in output changes inflation along the Phillips curve.
Shifts in confidence and exchange rate changes destabilize
output and inflation.
A decrease in confidence has the opposite effects of an increase.
7
Rising Confidence in Boversia
The Phillips curve captures the positive short-run relationship
between output and inflation.
π
Y
Phillips curve

Figure 17.3 Effects on Components of Spending
When confidence in Boversia rises and the central bank
stabilizes output, the exchange rate rises and the interest rate
falls. These changes have offsetting effects on aggregate
expenditure.
Overall, output is constant.
Real exchange rate (from in confidence of foreign savers;
only partly offset by real interest rate)
Real interest rate by central bank
Net exports
Consumption
Investment
Offsetting Exchange-Rate Shocks
Due to time lags and uncertainty about policy effects, central
banks dampen the effects of exchange-rate shifts, but exchange-
rate shocks still result in some output instability.
In small countries exports are a large percentage of GDP, so
central banks react strongly.
In the U.S. exports are about 15% of GDP, so the Fed focuses
more on domestic factors and usually pays little attention to
exchange rates.

10
10
In some small countries exports can be half or more of GDP.
This is comparable to states within the United States. For most
states, trade with other states is a very large percentage of a
state’s GSP (Gross State Product).
Risk and Global Economic Integration
Exchange-rate risk discourages international trade and capital
flows, favoring domestic markets and assets.
Reducing international trade reduces economic growth.
International trade promotes comparative advantage.
Competition from trade makes domestic producers more
efficient.
Trade helps spread technologies.
Capital flows, an important source of finance in developing
countries, are reduced by volatile exchange rates.
11
11
Exchange-rate risk hurts the global economy.
Exchange Rate Policies
Central banks use several methods to control exchange rates.
Interest-rate adjustments
Foreign-exchange interventions
Capital controls
Policy coordination

Each method of stabilizing exchange rates has drawbacks.
12
Exchange-Rate Policies and Their Pitfalls
13
13
Insert table 17.1 here.
Interest Rate Adjustments
Interest rate adjustments offset shocks to exchange rates.
Increased real interest rates increase the real exchange rate, and
vice versa.
Interest rate adjustments to stabilize exchange rates can conflict
with the rates needed to stabilize output and inflation.
The real interest rate adjustment needed to keep exchange rates
constant after a shock to NCO results in a change in output.
A shock to AE that requires an interest rate change will change
the exchange rate, which may be undesirable.
Policymakers look for alternative ways to stabilize exchange
rates that don’t affect output or inflation.

14
14
The goals of internal and external balance may conflict.
Figure 17.4 Stabilizing the Exchange Rate
Here, increased confidence shifts the NCO curve to the left, but
the central bank lowers the interest rate enough to reverse the
shifts completely. The real exchange rate doesn’t change (A).
The lower interest rate pushes output above potential despite the
inward shift of the AE curve (B).
ε
Bovers
(A)
NCO2
NX
NCO3 = NCO1
Effect of r
Effect of
higher confidence
Real exchange rate days constant
r
Y
(B)
AE1
AE2
Y*

Figure 17.5 A Domestic Shock and Output Stabilization
Here, Boversia’s AE curve shifts due to a domestic shock. The
central bank reduces the real interest rate to keep output
constant (B). The lower interest rate shifts the NCO curve to the
right, reducing the real exchange rate (A).
ε
Bovers
(A)
NCO 1
NX
NCO 2
Effect of r
Central bank reduces r to keep Y constant
r
Y
(B)
AE1
AE2
Y*
Foreign-Exchange Interventions
Foreign-exchange interventions are purchases and sales of
foreign currencies by central banks.
Interventions requires international reserves, which are liquid

assets held by central banks that are denominated in foreign
currencies.
Reserves are typically held in bonds of the foreign government.
Trading domestic currency for a foreign currency increases
international reserves, and vice versa.
When a central banks sells foreign currency, it first sells its
foreign bonds to obtain the foreign currency.
17
17
In 2007 the Fed owned about $70 billion of international
reserves.
Figure 17.6 Foreign Exchange Interventions
and International Reserves
Central bank trades its currency for foreign currency…
…uses foreign currency to buy foreign assets
International reserves increase
Central bank sells foreign assets for foreign currency…
…trades foreign currency for own currency
International reserves decrease
OR

Effects of Interventions
Interventions affect exchange rates by changing the supply and
demand for currencies.
If the Fed sells dollars for euros, the supply of dollars increases
and the dollar depreciates.
If Boversia’s central bank uses domestic currency to buy
foreign currency that it uses to buy foreign assets, NCO shifts
to the right, reducing the real exchange rate, and vice versa.
19
19
Interventions are an alternative way of stabilizing the exchange
rate.
Figure 17.7 Interventions and the Exchange Rate
Purchases of foreign currency by the central bank raise net
capital outflows and reduce the real exchange rate (A). Sales of
foreign currency have the opposite effects (B).
ε
Bovers
(A) Central bank buys foreign currency
NCO 1
NCO 2
ε
Bovers
(B) Central bank sells foreign currency
NCO 1
NCO 2

NX
NX
Why Interventions?
Exchange-rate stabilization using interest rates has the
undesirable side effect of changing output and inflation.
Intervention stabilizes the exchange rate without changing
interest rates.
If the exchange rate remains constant, net exports are constant
and the AE curve doesn’t shift, so output and inflation remain
constant.
21
21
Intervention stabilizes the exchange rate without creating an
inflationary boom.
Figure 17.8 Interventions and the Exchange Rate Stabilization
Here, increased confidence shifts the NCO curve to the left, but
the central bank reverse the shift by purchasing foreign
currency. The exchange rate does not change (A). The AE curve
does not move and the central bank holds the interest rate
constant, so output does not change (B).

ε
Bovers
(A)
NX
NCO3 = NCO 1
Effect of intervention
Effect of
higher confidence
NCO 2
r
Y
(B)
AE
Y*
Real exchange rate days constant
r chosen by central bank
Who Intervenes?
The Bank of Japan sold yen repeatedly in 2003 and 2004,
attempting to hold down the yen’s value to stimulate exports
and increase output.
Mexico and South Korea bought their own currencies in 2008-
2009 in response to falling confidence in their economies.
The Fed traded currencies frequently in the 1970s and 1980s,
but recently the Fed and ECB don’t intervene, as they doubt the
effectiveness of intervention.

23
23
Japan sold yen worth 10% of GDP in 2003 and 2004 in an effort
to stop appreciation and stimulate exports.
Capital Controls
Capital controls are regulations that restrict capital inflows or
outflows.
Both governments and central banks impose capital controls.
Controls take different forms: requiring approval to purchase
assets and taxes or forbidding entry into a country.
Capital outflows may be restricted to direct savings toward
domestic investment; inflow controls may prohibit foreign
ownership of domestic assets.
24
24
Mexico restricts foreign ownership of real estate and natural
resources.
Effects on Exchange Rates
A restriction on capital outflows shifts NCO to the left, and vice
versa.
Capital controls ease the trade-off between output and
exchange-rate stability.
Capital controls can offset other shocks affecting exchange
rates, such as a loss of confidence.
In the 1997-1998 East Asian crisis, most central banks

increased interest rates in response to increased capital
outflows, causing recessions in their countries.
Alternatively, Malaysia restricted capital outflows and lowered
its interest rates, recovering faster than the other affected
countries.
25
25
Other Asian countries affected by the crisis raised interest rates
and suffered longer recessions.
Figure 17.9 Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate
If Boversia’s government or central bank imposes restrictions
on capital outflows, the NCO curve shifts to the left and the
exchange rate rises (A). Restrictions on capital inflows have the
opposite effects (B).
ε
Bovers
(A) Restrictions on Capital Outflows
NCO 1
NCO 2
ε
Bovers
(B) Restrictions on Capital Inflows
NCO 1
NCO 2

NX
NX
The Critique of Capital Controls
Economists argue that controls impede the flow of saving to its
most productive uses.
Even in cases such as Malaysia, where controls appear to have
provided short-run assistance, controls will reduce foreign
investment in a country.
The U.S. abolished a tax on foreign asset purchases in 1974, but
many developing countries still have controls.
Thailand imposed controls in 2006 to stop its currency from
appreciation, but the result was a stock market crash and
controls ended.
The Thai case shows a problem with controls.
27
27
Many countries have abolished capital controls.
Policy Coordination
Appreciation of one currency is also a depreciation of other
currencies, so officials of different countries discuss exchange
rates because many countries are affected by any change.
In 1985 a strong dollar led to calls for trade restrictions in the
U.S., so the U.S., Europe, and Japan signed the “Plaza

Agreement” to work to depreciate the dollar.
In 2000, the U.S., Europe, and Japan agreed to try to boost the
value of the euro, but intervention didn’t have much effect on
exchange rates, explaining why the Fed and ECB don’t
intervene.
Since the effects of intervention are questionable and interest
rate adjustments may be necessary, central banks prefer freedom
to set interest rates and thus don’t make exchange-rate
commitments.
28
28
In 2003-2004 U.S. officials criticized Japan which intervened to
weaken the yen, because U.S. officials wanted a stronger yen to
increase demand for U.S. exports.
Fixed Exchange Rates
A floating exchange rate is a policy that allows the exchange
rate to fluctuate in response to economic shocks.
A fixed exchange rate is a policy that holds the exchange rate at
a constant level.
Fixed exchange rates better promote international trade and
capital flows since this policy eliminates exchange-rate risk.
29
29

Most central banks allow exchange rates to float due to the
drawbacks of the policies used to control exchange rates.
Mechanics of Fixed Exchange Rates
Assume Boversia fixes the value of its currency to the dollar at
2 bovers per dollar.
To keep the price fixed it buys and sells dollars which is
foreign-exchange intervention.
If capital flight occurred, the central bank would sell dollars to
support its exchange rate, but it would eventually run out of
dollar reserves.
To maintain the exchange rate the central bank must increase
interest rates, restrict capital outflows, or both, or else the
exchange rate will fall.
30
30
A country’s ability to support its currency is limited by its
international reserves.
Devaluation and Revaluation
A fixed exchange rate is a nominal rate, e.
Real exchange rates, ε, matter for the economy:
ε = eP/P*
where P is the domestic price level and P* is the foreign
price level.
A fixed nominal rate does not fix the real rate, since price
levels can change.
An increase in the domestic price level, with a fixed nominal
rate, increases the real exchange rate, reducing net exports and

output.
An increase in the foreign price level reduces the real exchange
rate and makes imports more expensive, hurting consumers.
31
31
Net exports are determined by real, not nominal, exchange
rates.
Devaluation and Revaluation
Countries change fixed exchange rates to offset the effects of
price level changes.
Devaluation is resetting of a fixed exchange rate at a lower
level.
Revaluation is resetting of a fixed exchange rate at a higher
level.
A devaluation or revaluation fixes the exchange rate at a new
level.
32
32
Devaluation lowers the real exchange rate.
A Fixed Exchange Rate: Pros and Cons

Insert table 17.2 here.
33
Loss of Independent Monetary Policy
A benefit of fixed exchange rates is the encouragement of
international trade and capital flows.
The costs of fixed exchange rates are the policies that must be
used to control the exchange rate: capital controls or interest
rate adjustments.
If interest rates are used to stabilize exchange rates, they cannot
be used to stabilize the economy.
The central bank cannot change the interest rate to offset
expenditure shocks because doing so would change the
exchange rate.
34
34
With fixed exchange rates, monetary policy cannot be used to
stabilize the economy.
Loss of Independent Monetary Policy
If interest rates increase in the U.S., NCOs will increase in
Boversia unless the interest rate is increased in Boversia.
Thus, the Fed sets the interest rate in Boversia.
The economic conditions in the U.S. may differ from those in
Boversia, making U.S. policy inappropriate for Boversia.

The U.S. may raise rates to stop a boom, while higher rates
worsen Boversia’s recession.
35
35
With fixed exchange rates, small countries relinquish their
monetary policies to a large country.
Controlling Inflation
Loss of monetary independence is a cost of fixed exchange
rates.
A fixed exchange rate is a monetary rule that can prevent high
inflation.
Inflation in Boversia will move close to the U.S. inflation rate.
Higher initial inflation in Boversia increases its real exchange
rate, reducing net exports, real output, and lowering inflation to
the U.S. level.
Fixed exchange rates can be used to stabilize inflation.
36
36
In the 1980s Israel fixed its exchange rate to the dollar in
conjunction with other policies to reduce inflation.
Figure 17.10 Fixed Exchange Rates and Inflation
Boversia fixes its exchange rate against U.S. dollar
If inflation in Boversia > inflation in the United States…

Boversia’s real exchange rate
Boversia’s net exports
Boversia’s inflation rate
AE
Y falls below Y*
The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rates
Eventually policymakers change the value of fixed exchange
rates or switch to floating rates.
The process of reducing inflation through fixed exchange rates
requires a recession, which is painful.
People may expect the central bank will devalue the exchange
rate rather than continue the recession.
Since devaluation hurts foreign owners of domestic assets,
capital flight occurs in the high-inflation country.
38
38
Expectations of devaluation are a one-way bet against a fixed
exchange rate.
Figure 17.11 The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rates

If Boversia’s real exchange rate is high, reducing output…
people expect devaluation of the bover, which will cause losses
to foreign owners of Boversian assets
capital flight from Boversia
r needed to prevent Boversia’s exchange rate… but this would
Y
Boversia’s central bank devalues
The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rates
Capital flight depletes a central bank’s international reserves,
forcing an increase in interest rates or a devaluation.
Expectations of devaluation are self-fulfilling.
Currency speculation helps cause devaluations.
A speculative attack is the strategy of selling a currency with a
fixed exchange rate, to force and profit from a devaluation.
The goal of fixed exchange rates is to stabilize the exchange
rate, but speculative attacks cause large, sudden changes in
exchange rates.
40
40
A speculative attack is an attempt to force a policy change on a
central bank.

A Brief History of Fixed Exchange Rates
The gold standard was a system of fixed exchange rates in
which each country fixed the value of its currency in terms of
gold; the gold standard broke down during the Great
Depression.
Forty-four countries established the Bretton Woods system of
fixed exchange rates in 1944.
Fixed rates were believed to be essential for trade.
Interest-rate adjustments, capital controls, and interventions
would maintain fixed rates.
U.S. inflation caused a real appreciation, causing people to
expect a U.S. devaluation.
In 1971 a speculative attack forced an 8% devaluation of the
dollar and another attacked on the U.S. dollar resulted in a 10%
devaluation in 1973.
41
41
In the 1950s Milton Friedman began advocating floating
exchange rates.
A Brief History of Fixed Exchange Rates
Rates “temporarily” floated after the 1973 attack, but fixed
rates were never restored, since floating rates allow for
independent monetary policies and avoid speculative attacks.
Since 1973 most advanced countries have had floating rates as
they prefer independent monetary policies.
Europe’s ERM was an exception but that was a temporary step
toward the euro.

In the 1970s through the 1990s, many developing countries
fixed their exchange rates to the U.S. dollar, but speculative
attacks forced many of these countries to float their exchange
rates.
Today small countries with links to larger economies have fixed
exchange rates as do oil exporters who fix exchange rates to the
U.S. dollar.
42
42
The world price of oil is set in terms of dollars, so the fixed
exchange rate stabilizes the flow of revenues to the oil
producers.
Currency Unions
A currency union is a group of countries that has adopted a
single money, an extreme version of fixed exchange rates.
The euro is a currency union created by 11 countries in 1999
and used by 17 countries in 2011.
43
43
The euro area is the world’s largest currency union.
The Euro Area
The Exchange Rate Mechanism was created in 1992 to reduce

fluctuations and ultimately fix exchange rates, leading to the
euro in 1999.
To adopt the euro, countries must be members of the European
Union and have good economic policies.
The policy requirements include a budget deficit less than 3%
of GDP and low inflation.
44
44
The Maastricht Treaty was the agreement creating the euro.
The Birth of the Euro
In 1999 15 countries belonged to the European Union, but only
11 adopted the euro.
Two countries, Sweden and Greece, did not meet the economic
criteria to join the euro, and England and Denmark chose not to
join.
A goal of the European Union is economic integration,
including removal of trade barriers and capital controls.
The single currency facilitates price comparisons between
countries.
45
The Euro Area Grows
Greece met the economic criteria in 2001 and joined the euro.

Between 2004 and 2007 the EU admitted 12 new countries; as
of 2011 five have joined the euro: Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia,
Cyprus, and Malta.
Other new members are eager to join, but some do not yet meet
the economic criteria.
The U.K., Denmark, and Sweden remain outside the union.
The public in Denmark and Sweden recently voted to retain
their national currencies.
46
46
All of the new EU members must eventually join the euro.
European Monetary Policy
The Eurosystem runs monetary policy for the euro area.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has a six-member Executive
Board.
The president of the ECB chairs the Board and serves a single
eight-year term.
Monetary policy sets interest-rate targets at monthly meetings
of the Governing Council, comprised of the Executive Board
and 15 governors from countries’ national central banks
(NCBs).
As the euro area includes more than 15 countries and will
expand further, governors of NCBs will take turns on the
Council.

47
47
The NCBs perform functions similar to the Federal Reserve
Banks in the United States.
Figure 17.12 The Euro Area, 2011
The countries shaded in orange used the euro as their currency
in 2011.
SWEDEN
NORWAY
DENMARK
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
BELGIUM
GERMANY
POLAND
BELARUS
UKRAINE
CZECH REPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
AUSTRIA
SLOVENIA
ITALY
SWITZERLAND
FRANCE
SPAIN
PORTUGAL
MOROCCO
ALGERIA
TUNISIA
MALTA
CYPRUS
GREECE

BULGARIA
SERBIA
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
ROMANIA
HUNGARY
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
FINLAND
UK
IRELAND
The Economics of Currency Unions
A currency union increases economic integration that promotes
trade and capital flows.
A currency union has several advantages:
Exchange rates are absolutely fixed at 1:1, and speculative
attacks are impossible.
The costs of exchanging currencies is eliminated.
Price comparisons in different countries are facilitated,
increasing competition.
Research has found that integration has increased, as have
capital flows.
49
49
The euro’s creators hoped the euro would increase integration

and speed economic growth.
One-Size-Fits-All Policy
The drawback of currency unions is the loss of independent
monetary policy.
Critics argue that different areas in Europe require different
interest rates:
The 2010 Greek debt crisis required increased interest rates,
resulting in a recession with 12% unemployment.
If Greece had its own currency, it could loosen monetary policy,
depreciating the currency, increasing net exports and helping
the recovery, but being a euro member prevents this.
50
50
The United States is a currency union for its 50 states, and
different states at times would benefit from independent
monetary policies.
The Politics of Currency Unions
The creation of the euro is part of a political movement toward
European unity that began after World War II.
A goal of unity is to avoid future conflicts.
Eastern European countries view the euro as breaking with their
Communist past and a tie with Western Europe.
Nationalists who prefer to maintain national identity oppose the
euro as a threat to countries’ identity.

51
51
One reason the UK has opted out of the euro is due to a desire
to remain independent.
More Currency Unions?
There are two currency unions in Africa and one in the Eastern
Caribbean.
Other unions have been proposed; however, opposition remains
strong.
The winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in Economics, Robert
Mundell, has proposed a world currency.
52
52
A world currency would require a world central bank.
Chapter Summary
Shocks such as shifts in asset holders’ confidence cause
fluctuations in exchange rates, destabilizing output and
inflation.
Central banks adjust interest rates to offset the effects of
exchange rates on output and inflation.
In countries with high levels of foreign trade, such as Canada,
adjustments to exchange-rate movements are a major part of
monetary policy.

Chapter Summary
Exchange rate fluctuations create risk for importers and
exporters of goods and owners of foreign capital.
Exchange rate risk decreases international trade and capital
flows, reducing economic efficiency and international trade.
Chapter Summary
Central banks have several tools to stabilize exchange rates, but
each has drawbacks.
Adjusting interest rates stabilizes exchange rates, but may
destabilize output.
Central banks try to influence exchange rates with foreign-
exchange interventions, but the effectiveness of this policy is
questionable.
Capital controls help control exchange rates, but impede the
flow of savings to the most productive uses.
Exchange-rate policies can be coordinated, but this may cause
frictions.
Chapter Summary
A central bank fixes its nominal exchange rate by buying and
selling its currency at a fixed rate and supports the exchange

rate with interest-rate adjustments and/or capital controls.
Policymakers devalue or revalue fixed exchange rates.
Changing the exchange rate offsets drift due to different
inflation rates.
Chapter Summary
Countries with fixed exchange rates sacrifice independent
monetary policies and cannot adjust interest rates to stabilize
output.
Fixed exchange rates prevent high inflation by tying a country’s
inflation rate to that of another country.
Speculative attacks cause a collapse of fixed exchange rates.
From 1944 to 1973 most countries had fixed exchange rates as
members of the Bretton Woods system and have adopted
floating exchange rates since then.
Chapter Summary
A currency union is a group of countries with a common
currency.
The euro area is the world’s largest currency union.
The primary advantage of currency unions is promotion of
economic integration; the primary drawback is a single
monetary policy that might not be appropriate for all countries,
as illustrated by Greece’s 2010 debt crisis.
The impetus for the euro was political: a common currency
symbolizes European unity.

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