Business Cycles are well-known to Economists. Periods of boom and bust exist regardless of the health of an Economy.
In this presentation, Money and Infinity, we will consider far longer cycles. In fact, not Economic Cycles but Civilisation Cycles. How it started and how it will end.
Our Ariadne thread will remain a proper mathematical modelling of Monetary Flows.
We will begin by explaining what we mean by Accounting Circuit (Part 1), then move on to the mathematical structure of these circuits (Part 2). And finally by taking time to +∞ or -∞, this will allow us to answer the questions (Part 3):
How did it all start?
Where will it all end?
We will close the discussion by showing that it is the Revolutionary Act which in fact keeps Civilisation alive by taking it out of the Eternal Return of the Same which Money, like Power, cannot escape !!
Life Cycles and Carbon Footprints | Wiedmann icarb
The document discusses carbon accounting methods for measuring greenhouse gas emissions. It describes two main approaches: process life cycle assessment (LCA) which is process specific but can be truncated, and environmental input-output analysis (EIOA) which is more complete but aggregates data. It proposes a hybrid approach using both methods to leverage their strengths while mitigating weaknesses. Case studies are presented demonstrating carbon footprinting for a food company supply chain and conducting structural path analysis on a sector. Key recommendations include prioritizing a top-down analysis to identify hotspots, focusing on significant insights, managing uncertainty, and avoiding underestimating services.
Mathematical concepts applied to monetary systems in 20 slidesRakesh Kariholoo
Name 4 key concepts in Physics: Time; Space; Matter; Energy.
Name 4 key concepts in Business Management: Money; Business Organisations; Time; Resources.
The 2 Flagship concepts of each are Energy (Physics) and Money (Business).
What we will show in this presentation is how these concepts belonging to 2 different spheres of knowledge interpenetrate each other. In particular, we will illustrate in these 20 slides how the core concepts of Physics can be interpreted within Business Organisations. And how Money is the Equivalent concept of Energy inside Business Management!!!
The notion of Accounting Circuit transcends the strictly Financial domain and belongs to the realm of Philosophy too.
In this presentation we will build a mathematical model of Accounting and Bookkeeping using Measure theory. Please don't be too afraid as we will remain very practical and answer some fascinating questions:
Where does Money come from?
Is it possible that Money in some form existed before Man?
So, fasten your seat belts, and enjoy the ride...
We will in this presentation introduce a new Accounting concept: Hard Cash.
Hard Cash is to Cash what Cash is to other types of Assets. The Ultimate form of Wealth.
To define these notions properly we will spend some time with modern mathematical ideas such as non-commutativity coming from Group theory and show how they apply in the Financial realm.
This will naturally lead us to our key concepts.
1) The document discusses using correlation matrices to model the connections between companies and identify trading opportunities that arise from delays in how credit events spread through connected companies.
2) It proposes treating the network of companies like a mechanical system and using techniques from structural dynamics to model credit cascades and predict how impacts will propagate.
3) Drawing on analogies with electrical circuits, it argues this approach will provide insights into resonant responses and allow anticipating movements in stock prices, credit default swaps, and bonds to enable arbitrage trades amidst temporary dislocations.
Markov analysis examines dependent random events where the likelihood of future events depends on past events. It models this using a transition matrix showing the probabilities of moving between states. The document discusses Markov analysis of accounts receivable to predict future payment categories. It defines states like paid, overdue 1-3 months, etc. and a transition matrix showing the probabilities of moving between states. Markov analysis can then predict future distributions of accounts among the states by multiplying the current distribution by the transition matrix repeatedly.
The Roads Not Taken: Graph Theory and Macroeconomic Regimes in Stock-Flow Con...pkconference
This document discusses representing stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models using graph theory. It summarizes:
1) Stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models track cash flows between economic sectors. These models can be represented as graphs with nodes as sectors and directed edges as cash flows.
2) Choosing a "spanning tree" divides cash flows into independent variables not in the tree and dependent variables in the tree. Dependent variables are determined by accounting relations given independent variables.
3) Different spanning trees produce different classifications of variables and institutional structures like demand-driven, supply-driven, or financialized economies. This provides insight into macroeconomic regimes and the effects of policy changes.
4) Future work includes
The document discusses three cost curves: management cost curve, shortage cost curve, and total cost curve. It explains that total cost is equal to management cost plus shortage cost. The management cost curve increases as inventory levels increase, while the shortage cost curve decreases as inventory levels increase. The total cost curve follows a U-shape, as management costs rise with more inventory while shortage costs fall.
Life Cycles and Carbon Footprints | Wiedmann icarb
The document discusses carbon accounting methods for measuring greenhouse gas emissions. It describes two main approaches: process life cycle assessment (LCA) which is process specific but can be truncated, and environmental input-output analysis (EIOA) which is more complete but aggregates data. It proposes a hybrid approach using both methods to leverage their strengths while mitigating weaknesses. Case studies are presented demonstrating carbon footprinting for a food company supply chain and conducting structural path analysis on a sector. Key recommendations include prioritizing a top-down analysis to identify hotspots, focusing on significant insights, managing uncertainty, and avoiding underestimating services.
Mathematical concepts applied to monetary systems in 20 slidesRakesh Kariholoo
Name 4 key concepts in Physics: Time; Space; Matter; Energy.
Name 4 key concepts in Business Management: Money; Business Organisations; Time; Resources.
The 2 Flagship concepts of each are Energy (Physics) and Money (Business).
What we will show in this presentation is how these concepts belonging to 2 different spheres of knowledge interpenetrate each other. In particular, we will illustrate in these 20 slides how the core concepts of Physics can be interpreted within Business Organisations. And how Money is the Equivalent concept of Energy inside Business Management!!!
The notion of Accounting Circuit transcends the strictly Financial domain and belongs to the realm of Philosophy too.
In this presentation we will build a mathematical model of Accounting and Bookkeeping using Measure theory. Please don't be too afraid as we will remain very practical and answer some fascinating questions:
Where does Money come from?
Is it possible that Money in some form existed before Man?
So, fasten your seat belts, and enjoy the ride...
We will in this presentation introduce a new Accounting concept: Hard Cash.
Hard Cash is to Cash what Cash is to other types of Assets. The Ultimate form of Wealth.
To define these notions properly we will spend some time with modern mathematical ideas such as non-commutativity coming from Group theory and show how they apply in the Financial realm.
This will naturally lead us to our key concepts.
1) The document discusses using correlation matrices to model the connections between companies and identify trading opportunities that arise from delays in how credit events spread through connected companies.
2) It proposes treating the network of companies like a mechanical system and using techniques from structural dynamics to model credit cascades and predict how impacts will propagate.
3) Drawing on analogies with electrical circuits, it argues this approach will provide insights into resonant responses and allow anticipating movements in stock prices, credit default swaps, and bonds to enable arbitrage trades amidst temporary dislocations.
Markov analysis examines dependent random events where the likelihood of future events depends on past events. It models this using a transition matrix showing the probabilities of moving between states. The document discusses Markov analysis of accounts receivable to predict future payment categories. It defines states like paid, overdue 1-3 months, etc. and a transition matrix showing the probabilities of moving between states. Markov analysis can then predict future distributions of accounts among the states by multiplying the current distribution by the transition matrix repeatedly.
The Roads Not Taken: Graph Theory and Macroeconomic Regimes in Stock-Flow Con...pkconference
This document discusses representing stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models using graph theory. It summarizes:
1) Stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models track cash flows between economic sectors. These models can be represented as graphs with nodes as sectors and directed edges as cash flows.
2) Choosing a "spanning tree" divides cash flows into independent variables not in the tree and dependent variables in the tree. Dependent variables are determined by accounting relations given independent variables.
3) Different spanning trees produce different classifications of variables and institutional structures like demand-driven, supply-driven, or financialized economies. This provides insight into macroeconomic regimes and the effects of policy changes.
4) Future work includes
The document discusses three cost curves: management cost curve, shortage cost curve, and total cost curve. It explains that total cost is equal to management cost plus shortage cost. The management cost curve increases as inventory levels increase, while the shortage cost curve decreases as inventory levels increase. The total cost curve follows a U-shape, as management costs rise with more inventory while shortage costs fall.
Dear students get fully solved assignments
Send your semester & Specialization name to our mail id :
help.mbaassignments@gmail.com
or
call us at : 08263069601
COMPLEMENTARY CURRENCY AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMYIFLab
This document analyzes the potential impact of complementary currencies on a national economy. It begins by discussing how money is created in traditional capitalist economies through a two-stage process of central banks issuing debt and commercial banks providing loans. It then presents a system dynamics model to describe money issuance in economies with and without "inside money". As an example, it analyzes outcomes of a barter network in El Salvador and calculates spending multipliers. The main finding is that digital community currencies have greater spending multipliers than regular money markets. While the analyzed network is currently small, it could help cushion macroeconomic shocks by stabilizing aggregate demand.
Criteria for business longevity: Does a pure darwinian approach work?Rakesh Kariholoo
Long-Term business survival is the final aim of any new venture.
This is why Business people and Business Theorists were among the first to apply Darwin Theory outside its original framework to try to understand Economic superiority.
We will show in this short presentation why this approach is not enough as it misses a key fact: Money, originally, doesn't come from the Outside Environment.
This thesis develops a discrete-time mathematical model to analyze how bank defaults spread through an inter-banking network. It begins by modeling a system with two banks, where one bank has liabilities to the other. It represents the liability as a random walk and defines a stopping time for when either bank defaults. It then derives equations for the expected time until default, and the probabilities of each bank defaulting. The thesis generalizes this model to an arbitrary number of banks and connections between them. It implements the generalized model in MATLAB and analyzes simulation results to study how default spreads under different parameter values.
This document describes a study examining the "smart money effect" by including a new cash flow factor in the Fama-French three-factor model. The authors include a cash flow factor called PMN, representing the difference between positive and negative cash flow portfolios. They use regression to select funds with positive alpha values to form two portfolios based on the original three-factor model and new four-factor model including PMN. They then use Markowitz optimization to analyze the portfolios and compare results. The goal is to test if cash flow influences returns and if successful fund managers rely on the influence of cash flow.
7_Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve.pptMurat Öztürkmen
The document discusses analysing and interpreting the yield curve. It covers the importance of the yield curve, constructing the curve from discount functions, theories like the expectations hypothesis and liquidity preference theory, the formal relationship between spot and forward rates, interpreting the shape of the curve, and fitting the curve from market data. Specifically, it notes the challenges of fitting the curve given a lack of liquid market data inputs and impact of bid-offer spreads, and recommends using a non-parametric interpolation method like the Svensson model to produce a smoother forward curve.
This document introduces a new approach to measuring systemic risk through quantifying the complexity and resilience of interconnected systems. It defines a method to construct "business structure maps" from financial data to model a system's structure and interdependencies. A system's complexity is calculated from its structure and entropy, and resilience is defined as its current complexity relative to minimum and maximum bounds. Case studies apply this method to systems of major European and US banks, identifying which banks most impact the overall system complexity and resilience. The approach aims to measure resilience without building explicit system models, reducing risk from model uncertainties.
model of a protected currency area for developing countriesSehrGlobal
It is the description of a complementary currency with the attribute of a never changing value, settled by a never changing quantity of this complementary currency. It leads to the possibility of monetary scaling based on this absolute value and allows the introduction of mathematically determined exchange rates. Also Trading imbalances can be considered in the mathematically determination of exchange rates.
It is the model of a global reference complementary currency, abbreviating named ANNA, with the task to be a currency and exchange rate system for central banks.
It should be seen as a system of voluntary participation and leads to a currency area, if more than one country will participate to the system. The architecture of the monetary system implies minimum a second complementary currency as an intermediary foreign exchange currency. This monetary design will lead to a protection of the currency area, because:
1) It is a global system and independent from national interests. The monetary policy in ANNA will be less complex due to the absence of additional money supply and interest rates.
2) The intermediary foreign exchange currency leads to balancing effects between the systems of ANNA and FOREX
3) Monetary policy of single national inside currencies remains completely in self determination of the countries.
4) The exchange rates of inside currencies are always conclusive to each other, due to the mathematically determination. It prevents from speculative trading of currencies.
5) The never changing value of ANNA is a long term consideration of debts. It allows also the introduction of independent interest free national currencies. Both aspects together can be seen as a tool to interrupt the helix of debts.
The system succeeds if mutual benefits can be obtained for the FOREX and the participating countries. Heavily indebted poor countries could fulfill these requirements.
This document discusses systemic risk in interconnected financial systems. It presents a model for determining a "clearing payment vector" that clears the obligations of members in a financial system given their liabilities, limited liabilities, and operating cash flows. The paper shows there always exists a unique clearing vector and develops an algorithm to efficiently compute it. Comparative statics imply increased volatility lowers the total value of firms in the system even without direct costs of insolvency.
This document provides an overview of elementary ruin theory, which models the probability of ruin for an insurance company. It begins with definitions of key concepts like the surplus process and probability of ruin. It then describes modeling the aggregate claims process as a compound Poisson process. It derives expressions for the expected value and variance of the aggregate claims process. The document also introduces the adjustment coefficient R and relative security loading θ, which are important variables for analyzing the probability of ruin. The overall document lays out basic notation, terminology, and modeling approaches for ruin theory.
This document discusses different types of simulation models. It begins by introducing deterministic simulation models, where events and variable relationships are governed by known rules. It then discusses stochastic simulation models which incorporate random variables. The document also distinguishes between static models, which do not involve time, and dynamic models which simulate a system over time. It provides examples of deterministic simulations, such as simulating a loan repayment, and stochastic simulations, such as estimating pi using Monte Carlo methods.
This document proposes improvements to existing customer lifetime value models. It discusses deriving current models A and B, which discount average revenues over a subscriber's expected duration. The improvements consider estimating future cash flows and growth rates through regression analysis, accounting for other revenue streams, and incorporating the value of a subscriber's social network. The proposed model uses discounted cash flow analysis and least squares regression to forecast revenues and growth rates for each subscriber, considering revenues from mobile, TV, broadband and the revenues of subscribers within their social network. It requires subscriber revenue and call data to implement the analysis.
IRJET- Stock Market Prediction using Candlestick ChartIRJET Journal
This document discusses using candlestick chart patterns and the Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) algorithm to predict stock market prices. It begins with an introduction to candlestick charts and some common patterns like the morning star and three white soldiers patterns. It then discusses criticisms of candlestick patterns for being qualitatively described. The document proposes applying the LCS algorithm and extending it to handle multiple numerical attributes (nLCSm) to more objectively define candlestick patterns and retrieve similar patterns from historical data. This would allow for automated pattern recognition and stock price prediction.
Polonius, Claudius, and Horatio demonstrate different ways of being true to oneself in Hamlet. Polonius is true to his nosy nature by spying on everyone, making him false with others. Claudius is true to himself as a liar and murderer, though false to those around him. In contrast, Horatio remains loyal to Hamlet and true to his trustworthy character. While being true to oneself, one can still act falsely towards others as Polonius and Claudius do.
True Value Accounting for Multi Dimension Management is an initiative to make it possible to use better metrics so that we have better outcomes for both people and the environment. The initiative is built on top of the methods traditionally associated with conventional double entry accountancy, but applied to everything that makes up the complex ubiquitous socio-enviro-economic system. We have amazing possibilities, but as long as money and greed are the dominant incentive with nothing else of importance being measured, it should be no surprise that the world is suffering from an accelerating race to the bottom. This can be changed, and one of the tools for this should be better metrics along the lines being described by TrueValueMetrics.org. Peter Drucker famously said: 'You manage what you measure', but it is also important to measure the things that matter.
The document discusses the AD/AS model, focusing on long run aggregate supply (LRAS).
1) LRAS is a vertical line, representing the theoretical idea that in the long run, changes in the price level do not affect real output. This comes from classical theories about the separation of nominal and real variables.
2) LRAS can shift due to changes in factors of production like labor, capital, and natural resources. A rightward shift increases potential output while a leftward shift decreases it.
3) Factors that can cause LRAS to shift right include increased investment, population growth, and technological advances, while shifts left can occur due to depleted resources or lower investment.
This document discusses key concepts in the simple Keynesian theory of income determination, including:
1. Endogenous and exogenous variables - endogenous variables are explained by the theory, while exogenous variables are taken as given. Real output and consumption are initially treated as endogenous.
2. The consumption function - consumption is explained as autonomous consumption plus the marginal propensity to consume times disposable income. This can be shown graphically.
3. Induced saving and the marginal propensity to save - as disposable income increases, the remaining portion after consumption is induced saving. Actual U.S. data from 1929-2001 is presented to illustrate these concepts.
The document discusses money supply and money demand. It explains that money supply is determined by the behavior of households, banks, and the Federal Reserve. Banks can create money through fractional-reserve banking by keeping only a fraction of deposits as reserves and lending out the rest. This allows the initial deposit to create additional money in the economy. The money supply and monetary base are also influenced by the reserve-deposit ratio, currency-deposit ratio, and money multiplier. The Federal Reserve can conduct open market operations and adjust reserve requirements and interest rates to influence the money supply. Money demand theories, including portfolio and transactions theories like the Baumol-Tobin model, are also covered.
The document discusses concepts related to measuring money supply and determining money supply. It defines several monetary aggregates (M1-M4, NM0-NM3, L1-L3) used in India to measure money supply. It then presents a general model of money creation where money supply is determined by the monetary base, currency to deposit ratio, required reserve ratio, and excess reserve ratio. Changes in these determinants by the central bank, commercial banks, or public can impact money supply. The document also discusses exogenous and endogenous views of how the money supply curve may be shaped.
Momentum and Energy are fundamental concepts in Classical Mechanics. In this presentation, we give to both concepts a much wider scope of applications (Economics, Stock Markets ...)
Thoroughness vs. Speed!!
Why are we opposing both? In modern businesses, the two are necessary simultaneously!! You need to be fast and you need to be thorough!!
Nevertheless, in practical situations, most businesses are not thorough at all despite their claims to be armies of professionals.
The problem here is not due to speed of execution but in fact speed of thinking. By being too fast in their logic or thinking they miss critical ideas that make organisations live or die in the mid term.
In this presentation, we propose a radical change of culture in the operational management of any business. In fact, we want to import the Zen plenitude of Mathematics inside business organisations for the sake of thoroughness and “mathematise” the management of business processes the same way Taylor in his time made an effort to render business management more “scientific”.
This approach already has a name and is implemented in many organisations: It is the Six-Sigma Methodology. We will therefore justify to undertake this methodology within your organisation for any of our leaders-readers
Dear students get fully solved assignments
Send your semester & Specialization name to our mail id :
help.mbaassignments@gmail.com
or
call us at : 08263069601
COMPLEMENTARY CURRENCY AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMYIFLab
This document analyzes the potential impact of complementary currencies on a national economy. It begins by discussing how money is created in traditional capitalist economies through a two-stage process of central banks issuing debt and commercial banks providing loans. It then presents a system dynamics model to describe money issuance in economies with and without "inside money". As an example, it analyzes outcomes of a barter network in El Salvador and calculates spending multipliers. The main finding is that digital community currencies have greater spending multipliers than regular money markets. While the analyzed network is currently small, it could help cushion macroeconomic shocks by stabilizing aggregate demand.
Criteria for business longevity: Does a pure darwinian approach work?Rakesh Kariholoo
Long-Term business survival is the final aim of any new venture.
This is why Business people and Business Theorists were among the first to apply Darwin Theory outside its original framework to try to understand Economic superiority.
We will show in this short presentation why this approach is not enough as it misses a key fact: Money, originally, doesn't come from the Outside Environment.
This thesis develops a discrete-time mathematical model to analyze how bank defaults spread through an inter-banking network. It begins by modeling a system with two banks, where one bank has liabilities to the other. It represents the liability as a random walk and defines a stopping time for when either bank defaults. It then derives equations for the expected time until default, and the probabilities of each bank defaulting. The thesis generalizes this model to an arbitrary number of banks and connections between them. It implements the generalized model in MATLAB and analyzes simulation results to study how default spreads under different parameter values.
This document describes a study examining the "smart money effect" by including a new cash flow factor in the Fama-French three-factor model. The authors include a cash flow factor called PMN, representing the difference between positive and negative cash flow portfolios. They use regression to select funds with positive alpha values to form two portfolios based on the original three-factor model and new four-factor model including PMN. They then use Markowitz optimization to analyze the portfolios and compare results. The goal is to test if cash flow influences returns and if successful fund managers rely on the influence of cash flow.
7_Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve.pptMurat Öztürkmen
The document discusses analysing and interpreting the yield curve. It covers the importance of the yield curve, constructing the curve from discount functions, theories like the expectations hypothesis and liquidity preference theory, the formal relationship between spot and forward rates, interpreting the shape of the curve, and fitting the curve from market data. Specifically, it notes the challenges of fitting the curve given a lack of liquid market data inputs and impact of bid-offer spreads, and recommends using a non-parametric interpolation method like the Svensson model to produce a smoother forward curve.
This document introduces a new approach to measuring systemic risk through quantifying the complexity and resilience of interconnected systems. It defines a method to construct "business structure maps" from financial data to model a system's structure and interdependencies. A system's complexity is calculated from its structure and entropy, and resilience is defined as its current complexity relative to minimum and maximum bounds. Case studies apply this method to systems of major European and US banks, identifying which banks most impact the overall system complexity and resilience. The approach aims to measure resilience without building explicit system models, reducing risk from model uncertainties.
model of a protected currency area for developing countriesSehrGlobal
It is the description of a complementary currency with the attribute of a never changing value, settled by a never changing quantity of this complementary currency. It leads to the possibility of monetary scaling based on this absolute value and allows the introduction of mathematically determined exchange rates. Also Trading imbalances can be considered in the mathematically determination of exchange rates.
It is the model of a global reference complementary currency, abbreviating named ANNA, with the task to be a currency and exchange rate system for central banks.
It should be seen as a system of voluntary participation and leads to a currency area, if more than one country will participate to the system. The architecture of the monetary system implies minimum a second complementary currency as an intermediary foreign exchange currency. This monetary design will lead to a protection of the currency area, because:
1) It is a global system and independent from national interests. The monetary policy in ANNA will be less complex due to the absence of additional money supply and interest rates.
2) The intermediary foreign exchange currency leads to balancing effects between the systems of ANNA and FOREX
3) Monetary policy of single national inside currencies remains completely in self determination of the countries.
4) The exchange rates of inside currencies are always conclusive to each other, due to the mathematically determination. It prevents from speculative trading of currencies.
5) The never changing value of ANNA is a long term consideration of debts. It allows also the introduction of independent interest free national currencies. Both aspects together can be seen as a tool to interrupt the helix of debts.
The system succeeds if mutual benefits can be obtained for the FOREX and the participating countries. Heavily indebted poor countries could fulfill these requirements.
This document discusses systemic risk in interconnected financial systems. It presents a model for determining a "clearing payment vector" that clears the obligations of members in a financial system given their liabilities, limited liabilities, and operating cash flows. The paper shows there always exists a unique clearing vector and develops an algorithm to efficiently compute it. Comparative statics imply increased volatility lowers the total value of firms in the system even without direct costs of insolvency.
This document provides an overview of elementary ruin theory, which models the probability of ruin for an insurance company. It begins with definitions of key concepts like the surplus process and probability of ruin. It then describes modeling the aggregate claims process as a compound Poisson process. It derives expressions for the expected value and variance of the aggregate claims process. The document also introduces the adjustment coefficient R and relative security loading θ, which are important variables for analyzing the probability of ruin. The overall document lays out basic notation, terminology, and modeling approaches for ruin theory.
This document discusses different types of simulation models. It begins by introducing deterministic simulation models, where events and variable relationships are governed by known rules. It then discusses stochastic simulation models which incorporate random variables. The document also distinguishes between static models, which do not involve time, and dynamic models which simulate a system over time. It provides examples of deterministic simulations, such as simulating a loan repayment, and stochastic simulations, such as estimating pi using Monte Carlo methods.
This document proposes improvements to existing customer lifetime value models. It discusses deriving current models A and B, which discount average revenues over a subscriber's expected duration. The improvements consider estimating future cash flows and growth rates through regression analysis, accounting for other revenue streams, and incorporating the value of a subscriber's social network. The proposed model uses discounted cash flow analysis and least squares regression to forecast revenues and growth rates for each subscriber, considering revenues from mobile, TV, broadband and the revenues of subscribers within their social network. It requires subscriber revenue and call data to implement the analysis.
IRJET- Stock Market Prediction using Candlestick ChartIRJET Journal
This document discusses using candlestick chart patterns and the Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) algorithm to predict stock market prices. It begins with an introduction to candlestick charts and some common patterns like the morning star and three white soldiers patterns. It then discusses criticisms of candlestick patterns for being qualitatively described. The document proposes applying the LCS algorithm and extending it to handle multiple numerical attributes (nLCSm) to more objectively define candlestick patterns and retrieve similar patterns from historical data. This would allow for automated pattern recognition and stock price prediction.
Polonius, Claudius, and Horatio demonstrate different ways of being true to oneself in Hamlet. Polonius is true to his nosy nature by spying on everyone, making him false with others. Claudius is true to himself as a liar and murderer, though false to those around him. In contrast, Horatio remains loyal to Hamlet and true to his trustworthy character. While being true to oneself, one can still act falsely towards others as Polonius and Claudius do.
True Value Accounting for Multi Dimension Management is an initiative to make it possible to use better metrics so that we have better outcomes for both people and the environment. The initiative is built on top of the methods traditionally associated with conventional double entry accountancy, but applied to everything that makes up the complex ubiquitous socio-enviro-economic system. We have amazing possibilities, but as long as money and greed are the dominant incentive with nothing else of importance being measured, it should be no surprise that the world is suffering from an accelerating race to the bottom. This can be changed, and one of the tools for this should be better metrics along the lines being described by TrueValueMetrics.org. Peter Drucker famously said: 'You manage what you measure', but it is also important to measure the things that matter.
The document discusses the AD/AS model, focusing on long run aggregate supply (LRAS).
1) LRAS is a vertical line, representing the theoretical idea that in the long run, changes in the price level do not affect real output. This comes from classical theories about the separation of nominal and real variables.
2) LRAS can shift due to changes in factors of production like labor, capital, and natural resources. A rightward shift increases potential output while a leftward shift decreases it.
3) Factors that can cause LRAS to shift right include increased investment, population growth, and technological advances, while shifts left can occur due to depleted resources or lower investment.
This document discusses key concepts in the simple Keynesian theory of income determination, including:
1. Endogenous and exogenous variables - endogenous variables are explained by the theory, while exogenous variables are taken as given. Real output and consumption are initially treated as endogenous.
2. The consumption function - consumption is explained as autonomous consumption plus the marginal propensity to consume times disposable income. This can be shown graphically.
3. Induced saving and the marginal propensity to save - as disposable income increases, the remaining portion after consumption is induced saving. Actual U.S. data from 1929-2001 is presented to illustrate these concepts.
The document discusses money supply and money demand. It explains that money supply is determined by the behavior of households, banks, and the Federal Reserve. Banks can create money through fractional-reserve banking by keeping only a fraction of deposits as reserves and lending out the rest. This allows the initial deposit to create additional money in the economy. The money supply and monetary base are also influenced by the reserve-deposit ratio, currency-deposit ratio, and money multiplier. The Federal Reserve can conduct open market operations and adjust reserve requirements and interest rates to influence the money supply. Money demand theories, including portfolio and transactions theories like the Baumol-Tobin model, are also covered.
The document discusses concepts related to measuring money supply and determining money supply. It defines several monetary aggregates (M1-M4, NM0-NM3, L1-L3) used in India to measure money supply. It then presents a general model of money creation where money supply is determined by the monetary base, currency to deposit ratio, required reserve ratio, and excess reserve ratio. Changes in these determinants by the central bank, commercial banks, or public can impact money supply. The document also discusses exogenous and endogenous views of how the money supply curve may be shaped.
Momentum and Energy are fundamental concepts in Classical Mechanics. In this presentation, we give to both concepts a much wider scope of applications (Economics, Stock Markets ...)
Thoroughness vs. Speed!!
Why are we opposing both? In modern businesses, the two are necessary simultaneously!! You need to be fast and you need to be thorough!!
Nevertheless, in practical situations, most businesses are not thorough at all despite their claims to be armies of professionals.
The problem here is not due to speed of execution but in fact speed of thinking. By being too fast in their logic or thinking they miss critical ideas that make organisations live or die in the mid term.
In this presentation, we propose a radical change of culture in the operational management of any business. In fact, we want to import the Zen plenitude of Mathematics inside business organisations for the sake of thoroughness and “mathematise” the management of business processes the same way Taylor in his time made an effort to render business management more “scientific”.
This approach already has a name and is implemented in many organisations: It is the Six-Sigma Methodology. We will therefore justify to undertake this methodology within your organisation for any of our leaders-readers
This document provides an introduction to the concept of cartels in economics. It defines a cartel as a group of firms in the same industry that collude to maximize profits. Cartels are able to earn profits that are 300-3000 times higher than non-cartel firms through raising barriers to entry and controlling prices and competition in their market niche. The document will examine the mathematical structure of cartels and provide two real-world examples of famous cartels, including the Medellin drug cartel and investment banking, to demonstrate how cartels operate.
We
want
to
present
here
the
MacroEconomics
of
a
fascinaFng
Delta
region.
The
only
point
is
that
this
Delta
is
not
the
Delta
of
the
Mississippi
nor
the
Nile
Delta
but
the
Delta
of
the
Nvrin.
The
Nvrin
exists
as
a
trend,
a
mental
breaker.
Its
existence
in
mathemaFcal
terms
must
be
seen
as
an
inducFve
limit
of
all
posiFve
forces
in
the
current
world
economy,
as
the
crystallisaFon
of
a
perfect
economic
system.
The
Americas
of
the
Great
Expansion
defended
the
pursuit
of
Wealth
as
a
value
in
itself.
A
spiritual
value.
The
Originality
of
the
Nvrin
is
to
be
even
more
vocal
and
precise:
Spending
money
is
a
value
in
itself,
the
ulFmate
spiritual
value.
So,
please,
discover
in
the
following
slides
the
breath
of
a
different
civilisaFon.
With
different
values,
different
social
and
societal
norms.
The
Delta
of
the
Nvrin
region.
A
region
that
will
convince
you
the
Ancient
Greece
is
sFll
somewhere
out there.
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2. INTRODUCTION
Business
Cycles
are
well-‐known
to
Economists.
Periods
of
boom
and
bust
exist
regardless
of
the
health
of
an
Economy.
In
this
presentaNon,
Money
and
Infinity,
we
will
consider
far
longer
cycles.
In
fact,
not
Economic
Cycles
but
CivilisaNon
Cycles.
How
it
started
and
how
it
will
end.
Our
Ariadne
thread
will
remain
a
proper
mathemaNcal
modelling
of
Monetary
Flows.
We
will
begin
by
explaining
what
we
mean
by
AccounNng
Circuit
(Part
1),
then
move
on
to
the
mathemaNcal
structure
of
these
circuits
(Part
2).
And
finally
by
taking
Nme
to
+∞
or
-‐∞,
this
will
allow
us
to
answer
the
quesNons
(Part
3):
-‐ How
did
it
all
start?
-‐ Where
will
it
all
end?
We
will
close
the
discussion
by
showing
that
it
is
the
RevoluNonary
Act
which
in
fact
keeps
CivilisaNon
alive
by
taking
it
out
of
the
Eternal
Return
of
the
Same
which
Money,
like
Power,
cannot
escape
!!
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
2
3. SUMMARY
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
3
Part
I:
WHAT
ARE
ACCOUNTING
CIRCUITS
?
A)
Purpose
of
the
Concept
B)
Macro/Micro
Zoom
in
Part
II:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
A)
The
3
basic
Money
Flows
B)
Where
all
these
Flows
are
heading
to
…
Part
III:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
A)
The
Monetary
Chessboard
B)
Origins
of
Time
C)
Ends
of
Time
D)
Concept
of
RevoluNon
Final
Statement
4. PART
1:
WHAT
ARE
ACCOUNTING
CIRCUITS
?
The
concept
of
AccounNng
Circuit
transcends
the
framework
of
Finance
and
belongs
to
some
of
the
deepest
concepts
in
Philosophy
or
Hard
Sciences.
It
is
under
its
MathemaNcal
format
that
we
will
study
it
in
this
presentaNon
in
order
to
see
what
happens
at
Infinity.
The
Goal
is
to
model
how
Money
flows
through
Nme.
From
one
person
to
another
person.
From
a
person
to
an
organisaNon.
From
an
organisaNon
to
another
person
or
organisaNon.
There
is
a
chain
of
Senders/Receivers.
Money
is
never
Lost.
There
is
a
principle
of
conservaNon
of
Money,
the
same
as
in
Chemistry,
where
nothing
is
ever
lost.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
4
Purpose
of
the
Concept
Picture
2:
Picture
1:
Sender
Money
Receiver
A
chain
of
Senders/Receivers
5. What
happens
at
the
Macro
Level
If
we
look
at
the
High-‐end
point
of
view:
Money
transits
from
one
Monetary
System
(person
or
organisaNon)
to
another
Monetary
System.
This
is
how
the
Chain
looks
like.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
5
Picture
3:
Picture
4:
If
we
look
at
greater
Intervals
of
Nme,
we
can
see
a
network
taking
shape.
DefiniNon:
An
accounNng
circuit
is
a
given
path
taken
by
money
through
this
network
of
chains.
PART
1:
WHAT
ARE
ACCOUNTING
CIRCUITS
?
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
=
Monetary
System
Chain
3
Chain
2
Chain
1
6.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
6
What
happens
at
the
Micro
Level
If
we
look
at
the
Micro
level,
the
Atomic
level,
the
same
structure
repeats
itself
but
this
Nme,
the
nodes
are
the
accounts
of
a
given
Chart
of
accounts
inside
a
Monetary
System.
Remark:
It
is
worth
noNng
that
at
the
Micro
level,
the
flow
is
only
going
one
way.
From
one
account
1637
to
another
account
6254
and
not
the
reverse.
Example:
For
the
Cost
Flow
(Money
going
out
of
the
MS
[Monetary
System]),
we
go
from
Cash
to
COGS
(Cost
of
Goods
Sold)
and
not
the
Reverse.
Cash
is
used
to
pay
Salaries
and
not
the
other
way
round.
Picture
6:
PART
1:
WHAT
ARE
ACCOUNTING
CIRCUITS
?
Picture
5:
Account
D
Account
C
Account
B
Account
A
Account
1637
Account
6254
7. We
now
want,
in
this
Part
2,
to
study
the
Local
Structure
of
an
AccounNng
Circuit.
By
Local,
we
mean
the
behaviour
of
the
Monetary
flows
near
a
given
Monetary
System.
Global,
on
the
other
hand,
will
mean
the
behaviour
when
Nme
goes
to
-‐∞
or
+∞
(which
we
will
study
in
Part
3)
for
all
possible
Monetary
Systems.
Any
Monetary
System
has
3
Flows
of
Money
alached
to
it.
This
is
the
standard
FRC
structure:
Funding,
Revenues
and
Costs.
Funding
and
Revenues
are
in-‐going
Flows,
Costs
is
an
out-‐going
Flow.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
7
The
FRC
Structure
PART
2:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
Picture
7:
Picture
8:
Local
vs.
Global
in
Maths
A
Geometrical
Object
=
Global
Local
behaviour,
i.e.
:
I
zoom
in
R
F
C
Flows
inside
a
Monetary
System
The
FRC
Structure
8. The
hidden
Channel
Two
of
the
previous
FRC
Flows
are
connected
by
a
hidden
Channel.
F
and
C
are
linked.
The
outgoing
Flow
C
is
iniNally
an
ingoing
Flow,
namely
F.
This
is
a
Fundamental
Principle
of
Monetary
Systems
and
explains
why
Funding
is
so
crucial.
Without
it,
a
Financial
EnNty
doesn’t
even
exist
as
it
cannot
even
pay
the
most
basic
expenses.
We
get
the
following
Diagram.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
8
Picture
9:
PART
2:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
R
F
C
The
Hidden
Channel
9. A
key
point
about
the
F
and
C
Flow,
is
that
it
cuts
through
the
Monetary
System
transversally.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
9
What
do
we
mean
by
that?
1.
First,
this
Flow
cuts
through
the
Monetary
System
through
and
through,
visiNng
all
its
aspects,
from
the
Entry
Nll
the
Exit,
leaving
no
space
for
virgin
areas.
2.
It
re-‐energises,
from
the
AccounNng
standpoint
the
whole
Monetary
System.
3.
The
organisaNonal
layers
of
the
Monetary
System
stand
in
some
sense
orthogonally
to
this
Energy
path
going
through
them.
Picture
10:
A
Transverse
Flow
Picture
11:
PART
2:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
Transversal
Cut
Monetary
System
The
whole
of
the
MS
is
impacted
Money
coming
Out
Funding
Gate
10. The
Time
Inversion
Line
Let
us
look
more
closely
at
the
F
and
C
behaviour.
We
will
call
our
first
Monetary
System
Kurt.
Kurt
has
a
Funding
entry
F
coming
from
a
Funding
source
we
will
call
F1
and
a
cost
exit
C.
The
cost
goes
to
another
monetary
system
that
we
call
Karl,
which
itself
has
an
F
and
C
flow.
The
chain
Kurt
à
Karl
is
the
base
of
our
AccounNng
Circuit.
It
goes
forward
in
Nme.
The
key
point
is
that
all
Funding
nodes
F0,
F1,
F2
…
sit
on
another
Time
axis
which
goes
in
a
backward
Time
direcNon
compared
to
the
base
accounNng
circuit.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
10
PART
2:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
Picture
14:
Picture
13:
Picture
12:
C
Kurt
F
Funding
Source
=
F1
F
F
F1
F0
C1
C2
Karl
Kurt
Flow
of
Time
F1
F0
F2
Kurt
Karl
AccounNng
Circuit
Chain
Time
Inversion
Line
11. The
Pool
of
Present
:
R-‐∞
Similarly
we
can
look
at
the
R
Flow.
The
R
Flow
stops
in
the
Monetary
System.
However
if
we
ask
where
it
comes
from
we
can
start
going
backward
Nll
the
Source.
At
the
Limit,
we
find
the
UlNmate
Source
R-‐∞
of
all
possible
Revenues.
R-‐∞
is
the
Pool
of
Present,
situated
exactly
at
the
same
Nme
t0
than
the
TransacNon
Kurt
à
Karl.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
11
Picture
15:
Picture
16:
PART
2:
THE
LOCAL
STRUCTURE
c
c
R
R
Kurt
Karl
R’
R’’
AccounNng
Circuit
Chain
Kurt
Karl
R’
R’’
R3
R2
R3
R-‐∞
R-‐1
R01
R0
12. The
Bigger
picture
We
now
want
to
look
at
the
bigger
picture.
What
happens
when
we
consider
all
the
possible
AccounNng
Circuit
Chains
and
start
taking
Nme
t
towards
+∞
or
-‐∞.
We
get
in
fact
the
following
diagram:
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
12
CEO
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
Picture
17:
The
Monetary
Chessboard
R-‐∞
:
The
Pool
of
Present
Time
t
=
+
∞
Time
t
=
0
=
NOW
Time
t
=
-‐
∞
Time
Inversion
Line
THEN
The
IniNal
Ocean
The
Future
The
Past
All
the
Possible
AccounNng
Circuits
with
usual
Flow
of
Time
F1
F2
F∞
Kurt
Wendy
13. Few
Remarks
on
the
Monetary
Chessboard
Remark
1:
Because
of
the
existence
of
F∞
the
Model
we
have
built
is
Asymmetric
with
respect
to
Nme.
The
Ler
Hand
Side
(the
Past)
doesn’t
look
like
the
Right
Hand
Side
(the
Future).
Remark
2:
F∞
and
R-‐∞
are
the
Energy
givers
whereas
the
Monetary
Systems
sisng
on
the
Material
Realm
are
like
the
motors
taking
the
Game
forward
as
they
consume
this
Energy.
Remark
3:
F∞
is
properly
a
pump
as
it
acNvates
the
whole
Game
by
aspiring
the
Monetary
Flow
sisng
on
the
Time
Reversal
Line.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
13
Picture
18:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
F∞
R-‐∞
Present
Past
Future
Material
Realm
Finance
14. Philosophical
InterpretaNon
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
14
It
is
possible,
although
not
as
accurate
as
the
Model
itself
to
rephrase
everything
in
a
more
tradiNonal
Language.
Indeed:
R-‐∞
=
“Society”
F∞
=
“The
Capital”
c
=
The
Working
Force
We
also
have
the
Following
Theorems:
Theorems:
F∞
>
Fj
,
for
any
j
R-‐∞
changes
as
t
(the
Nme)
moves
forward
wF
moves
ahead
in
Nme
We
will
now
try
to
understand
what
happens
at
Nme
t
=
+∞
or
t
=
-‐∞
+
∞
=
Ends
of
Time
-‐
∞
=
Origins
of
Time
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
15. Origins
of
Time
If
we
go
back
to
the
Origins
of
Time,
we
see
a
very
mobile
Monetary
System,
that
we
call
the
WASP
(Wise
Adrenalin-‐Savvy
Pervert)
injecNng
Cash
Energy
inside
the
first
few
monetary
systems
present
at
that
Nme
near
the
wasp.
The
Wasp
is
bustling
with
Energy,
Cash
and
is
profoundly
out
of
Time.
The
Energy
it
injects
as
a
seed
in
the
few
early
Monetary
Systems
is
neither
Good
Energy
or
Bad
Energy,
but
has
a
tremendous
momentum
that
none
of
the
early
Monetary
Systems
can
handle
fully.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
15
Picture
19:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
Monetary
System
Monetary
System
No.
136
The
Wasp
At
the
Dawn
of
Times
16. Origins
of
Time
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
16
The
first
few
monetary
systems
come
back
in
the
Society
or
their
Nme.
Their
key
challenge
is
to
use
this
Energy
that
they
almost
plucked
at
a
metaphysical
level
into
a
CivilisaNonal
purpose.
To
their
great
surprise,
they
discover
the
Funding
rounds
never
ends,
despite
the
iniNal
Life
injecNon.
A
category
of
the
populaNon
decides
suddenly
to
control
the
gates
of
funding
and
realises
they
can
control
all
the
monetary
flows
and
take
a
porNon
of
revenues
out
of
it.
Picture
21:
Picture
20:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
Funding
Starts
Beginning
of
the
Time
Line
Inversion
for
the
Funders
Energy
Channeled
into
A
CivilisaNonal
Purpose
17. Origins
of
Time
Very
strangely,
a
third
party
comes
in
the
picture
of
this
very
strange
business.
Let’s
call
him
T
As
the
AccounNng
circuits
start
funcNoning
the
MS
(Monetary
Systems)
start
generaNng
a
whole
new
CivilisaNon.
The
Funders
make
money
while
at
the
same
Nme
sinking
in
a
spiritual
Black
Hole,
as
for
a
short
period
T
reaches
the
summits
of
Material
Wealth.
This
tri-‐parNte
game
goes
on
for
a
certain
interval
of
Nme.
As
we
move
forward
towards
the
future,
there
is
only
one
Certainty.
Arer
Nme
T
=
tK
T collapses
The
Funders
remain
funders
The
MS
build
Military
Power
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
17
Picture
22:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
MS
T
Funders
18. Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
18
Ends
of
Time
The
neighbouring
communiNes
start
parNcipaNng
in
the
game
as
Nme
t
goes
forward.
Each
one
choosing
which
role
to
play.
The
game
repeats
itself
except
the
ulNmate
Myth
of
T ‘s
supreme
wealth
once
reached
in
the
Golden
Age
which
is
never
repeated
but
generates
the
desire
to
pursue
the
game!
At
the
End
of
Time,
T ,
The
MS
and
the
Funders
meet
again.
They
could
very
well
shake
hands
and
end
the
Game.
Unfortunately,
they
repeat
the
same
game,
on
a
parody
version,
inverNng
roles,
on
Level
-‐1
(A
lower
level
than
the
iniNal
version)
and
R-‐∞
starts
moving
to
chaos.
Picture
24:
Picture
23:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
The
WASP
Chaos
History
of
a
Full
Cycle
Time
t
The
triparNte
game
19. How
to
stop
this
Cycle?
How
does
one
stop
this
endless
cycle?
By
a
RevoluNonary
act
of
an
absolute
defiance
and
denying
precisely
the
rules
of
this
game.
Example
1:
Introduce
a
700-‐page
revealed
text
on
the
planet
which
denies
from
A
to
Z
the
rules
of
the
game.
Example
2:
Land
on
Mars
Example
3:
Introduce
principles
of
civilisaNon
absolutely
alternaNve
and
based
on
acNviNes
not
listed
on
the
paper-‐roll
of
the
iniNal
game.
Example
4:
Ler
to
the
reader
It
is
vital
to
escape
the
Eternal
Return
of
the
Same
and
we
leave
the
Intelligence
of
the
reader
to
decide
for
her/himself.
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
19
Picture
25:
PART
3:
MONEY
AND
∞:
THE
BOOK
OF
KINGS
Chaos
One
cycle
Another
cycle
Start
Start
End
End
Cyclical
History
20. Final
Statement
Arer
a
Long
journey
into
MathemaNcal
Modelling,
we
finally
came
out
with
a
cyclical
vision
of
civilisaNon,
starNng
with
the
WASP
and
ending
up
in
the
usual
chaos.
It
is,
in
fact,
not
that
far
from
Nietzsche’s
point
of
view.
Except
that
we
refuse
the
concept
of
Eternal
Return
of
the
Same.
There
are
key
events
in
human
history
that
Nietzsche
doesn’t
explain:
1) The
InvenNon
of
WriNng
2) The
Koranic
RevelaNon
3) The
Landing
on
the
Moon
These
are
clearly
one
Shot-‐events
and
are
fundamentally
Non-‐Reversible
This
shows
two
things:
1) Some
events
in
human
history
shape
its
future
more
than
Money
2) A
RevoluNonary
Act
is
always
possible
We
leave
the
Reader
to
conclude…
Mathema'cs
applied
to
Business
Theory
20
FINAL
STATEMENT