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Minority report in research communities
The document discusses the issue of member disengagement in research communities, highlighting its impact on community viability and success rates. It proposes a proactive, predictive analytics approach for managing member engagement, focusing on detection, prevention, and precision in identifying disengagement risks. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating prediction models into community management systems to effectively reduce disengagement and enhance community outcomes.
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Minority report in research communities
- 1. ASC 2016 09/09/2016– Winchester (UK) Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDINTHE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN
- 2. A Research Communityas an Insight Delivery System #minorityreport
- 3. The Challenge ofCommunity Viability #minorityreport >50% OF ONLINE COMMUNITIES FAIL TO GENERATE SUCCESFUL OUTCOMES (Sarner, 2008)
- 4. Member Disengagement asViability Challenger 1 2 Low participation quantity Low participation quality Low participation in community topics Posts that contain insufficient argumentation #minorityreport
- 5. How to reducemember disengagement? Reputation mechanism? Content authoring? #minorityreport REACTIVE SUBJECTIVE TIME/COST INEFFICIENT
- 6. How to reducemember disengagement? Reputation mechanism? Content authoring? #minorityreport REACTIVE SUBJECTIVE TIME/COST INEFFICIENT Better approach? PROACTIVE OBJECTIVE TIME/COST EFFICIENT
- 8. I LEARN THE4 PRINCIPLES OF Proactive Community Management III II IV To reduce member disengagement effectively …. #minorityreport
- 9. Murder! Murder! “What’s coming? Doublehomicide: one male, one female. Killer's male, white, 40's.” “I'm placing you under arrest for the future murder of Sarah Marks” “The future can be seen” I - PREDICTION #minorityreport
- 10. Predictive analytics I -PREDICTION Untapped potential of research communities Prediction model for member disengagement I - PREDICTION 1. % 2. Risk indicator 3. Proactive alarm system Output #minorityreport
- 11. I - PREDICTIONI- PREDICTION QUANTITY QUALITY Low High Low High #minorityreport Community Stars Passivists High- Potentials Annoyers 1 2 TIP! Integrate predictions in community management support system
- 12. I - PREDICTIONQUALITY QUANTITY I- PREDICTION Low High Low High #minorityreport 87% 32% 81% 20% 27% 79% 32% 85% 12% 91% 86% 93% 91% 94% 11% 13% 9% 22% 17% 14%19% 11% 94% 17% Low quantity risk Low quality risk TIP! Integrate predictions in community management support system 1 2 94% 17%
- 13. “We see whatthey see” II - DETECTION “All we have to run on are the images that they produce” can be seen “We see what they see” #minorityreport
- 14. II - DETECTION AugJulSep Oct Nov II - DETECTION Pattern recognition Pursue Constructivity Less recent, less frequent & shorter posts = lower- level members Big size breeds big problems Allow swearing, but avoid raging anger 1 2 3 4 #minorityreport TIPS! Sentiment & member activity analysis Past Future Performance explanation
- 15. “The system can’tbe wrong” III - PRECISION “There hasn't been a murder in six years. There's nothing wrong with the system. It's perfect.” “Flaws. You ever get any false positives?” “Tell me exactly what it is you're looking for?” #minorityreport
- 16. “100% predictive accuracyis not possible” I - PREDICTIONIII - PRECISION “Successful implementation requires more than adequate predictive ability” #minorityreport 50% 100% 78%71% Good …. Bad Low Quant Low Qual ComprehensibilityJustifiability Predictive Accuracy TIP! Make a trade-off decision for succesful adoption (Martens et al, 2008) Random Choice
- 17. “Murder can bestopped” IV - PREVENTION “We are arresting individuals who've broken no law, but they will.” “The fact that you prevented it from happening doesn't change the fact that it was going to happen.” #minorityreport
- 18. I - PREDICTIONIV- PREVENTION Three-stage approach prediction model framework CRM info prevention suggestion 1 2 QUALITY QUANTITY Low High Low High #minorityreport TIP! HUMANMACHINE identify contextualize finalize MACHINE interpretation action 3 ! Prevention campaign PERSONALIZATION = KEY GO!
- 19. THEREFORE, USE THE4 PRINCIPLES OF Proactive Community Management Conclusion & takeaways DETECTION PREVENTIONPRECISION PREDICTION I II III IV #minorityreport Member disengagement jeopardizes community viability & must be battled effectively*…. * proactive – objective – time/cost efficient
- 21. Steven Debaere |Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDINTHE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! #minorityreport