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Battle Command Seminar MILITARY DECISION  MAKING PROCESS ( MDMP )   Major Frank J. Snyder 18 SEP 07
Purpose To facilitate a discussion on the Military Decision Making Process to include some techniques and procedures and some key points
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decision Making “ Success often depends on superior information that enables superior decisions.  Effective decision making combines judgment with information as an element of combat power:  it requires knowing if to decide, when to decide, and what to decide.  It requires….identifying important information and focusing subordinates and the staff on it.”  - FM 3-0
Types of Decision Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Military  decision making uses  which  technique? Why?
MDMP ,[object Object],[object Object],How do you organize for MDMP?
5.  COA Comparison 6.  COA Approval 3.  COA Development 4.  COA Analysis (war gaming) 2.  Mission Analysis 7.  Orders Production Military Decision  Making Process 1.  Receipt of Mission 7 Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Does every decision require the full MDMP? MDMP at all?  Is MDMP better for a certain  type of problem? How can you leverage MDMP in your unit?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WARNORD to staff Initial recon WARNORD to all   Receipt of Mission Step 1 Receipt of  Mission Input New Mission Output Initial Cdr’s guidance Assessment of available time
Receipt of Mission   Commander’s Initial Guidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mission Analysis Output IPB: MCOO, SITTEMP, HVTL, critical events, & event temp Input New Mission  Time analysis Cdr’s initial guidance Step 2 Mission Analysis Which outputs matter most? Commander’s intent  and planning guidance Initial ISR plan WARNORD 2 Restated mission ,[object Object],Mission analysis brief
Visualize, Describe, and Direct Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP.  It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions.   How many steps in MA?
10. Plan use of available time 11. Write the restated mission 12. Conduct a mission analysis    briefing 13. Approve the restated mission 14. Develop the initial commander’s   intent 15. Issue the commander’s guidance 16. Issue a WARNO 17. Review facts and assumptions  1. Analyze the higher HQ’s order 2. Conduct initial IPB 3. Determine specified, implied and essential tasks 4. Review assets available 5. Determine constraints 6. Identify critical facts and assumptions 7. Conduct risk assessment  8. Determine initial CCIR 9. Determine initial recon annex Mission Analysis What else is important?
COA Development Step 3 COA Development Restated mission Cdr’s intent & Initial planning guidance Initial CCIR Initial HVTL IPB products Output Input COA statements & sketches COA brief (optional)
? RISK SIMPLICITY FLEXIBILITY EXPLOIT ENEMY  VULNERABILITIES SURPRISE SPEED USE OF TERRAIN MAXIMUM USE  OF LIGHT INFANTRY SUFFICIENT TIME ENDSTATE TEMPO MASS ECONOMY  OF FORCE SECURITY UNITY OF COMMAND DEPTH SANCTUARY DENIAL LOC SECURITY Evaluation Criteria
Sanctuary Denial (x2):  The prevention or hindrance of destabilizing force occupation of areas from which they obtain tactical benefit from the use of space, supply, personnel, or facilities.  Measured as amount of combat patrols an MSC is capable of conducting within their AO over and above the commitments of Troops to Task.  (More is Better)  Freedom of Maneuver:  Measured as total number of Battalion sized elements required for force protection at Forward Operating Bases. (Fewer is Better)  Flexibility:   Provides and preserves maximum options for the division and brigade commanders.  Measured as the number of branch plans and sequels available to the division commander.  (More is better) LOC Security:   Ability and degree to which friendly forces operate unhindered by enemy direct action along the MSR.  Measured as the length in KMs of Division MSR, the number of chokepoints along the MSR, and the number of forces allocated for security. (Less is better) Command and Control:  The authority exercised by a commander over the activities of his assigned units and the ability of a commander to direct their actions.  Measured as number of battalions task organized outside of their habitual Brigades, the number of BCTs with more than five task organized Battalions, and the number of follow – on RIPs required.  (Fewer is better) EXAMPLE Evaluation Criteria
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA Development COAs must pass the FADS Test!...What is the FADS Test?
COA Development   Essential Task and Purpose   Regardless of COA, the unit must accomplish the higher commander’s intent by understanding its essential task(s) and purpose and its unique contribution to the higher commander’s mission success. Tasks for  this COA Tasks for this COA Tasks for this COA COA 1 COA 2 COA 3 Essential task and purpose is common to all COAs  (Suitability requirement)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA Development “ A Way”
COA Analysis Mission to subordinate units CCIR Refined COAs Targeting products: HPTL, AGM, TSS Output Input Approved COA  Statements and sketches  Updated CCIRs Updated IPB products Step 4 COA Analysis (War Game) Who is responsible for what product? Task Organization Wargame results DST and WFF synch matrix WARNO 3? Updated  Collection plan Refined Event Temp
COA Comparison Commander’s decision brief Step 5 COA COMPARISON War game  results Establish  criteria  Output Input Decision  matrix War game brief (optional)
COA 1 COA 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EXAMPLE Advantages and  Disadvantages
LOWER IS BETTER COA Numerical Analysis Decision Matrix CRITERIA 1 2 WEIGHT: x2 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 SANCTUARY  DENIAL FREEDOM OF  MANEUVER FLEXIBILITY LOC SECURITY C2 TOTAL 6(7) 8(10) 1(2) 2(4) 1(1) 1(1) 1(1) 2(2) 1(1) 2(2) 2(2) 1(1) Raw Score (Weighted) Example COA Comparison
COA Approval Specified type of order Approved COA Step 6 COA APPROVAL Decision  matrix Decision  brief  Output Input Specified type of rehearsal Refine Timeline Modified COA Refined Cdr’s intent
Orders Production OPORD Step 7 ORDERS PRODUCTION Approved  COA Output Input What does a good order look like?  What is good enough?
The Written Word ,[object Object],[object Object],What’s your opinion?
PLANNING CONTINUUM AVAILABLE PLANNING TIME DRIVES MORE TIME LESS TIME Time Constrained MDMP LESS DETAILS IN CDR’S GUIDANCE MORE MORE   FLEXIBILITY/LATITUDE  LESS OF STAFF MORE    NUMBER OF COAs  FEWER   DEVELOPED MORE LEVEL OF DETAIL/COORDINATION LESS   IN OPORD LESS   LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT MORE OF COMMANDER
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions
On…  “Organization” ,[object Object],[object Object],back
On…  “Consistency of Process” ,[object Object],[object Object],back
On…  “Speed in decision making” ,[object Object],[object Object],back
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Types of Decisions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Receipt of Mission Initial Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP.  It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions. Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis In order to be effective: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Continuous visualization of how battle will unfold Proactive vs. Reactive METT-TC?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],METT-TC
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Anatomy of a  Restated Mission “ The restated mission is a simple, concise statement of the essential tasks the unit must accomplish and the  purpose to be achieved .” FM 5-0, para 4-26.
Nesting the COA Intents XXXX Task & purpose Missions XXX Shaping XXX Decisive XX Decisive XX Shaping
Shaping Determine Shaping  Tasks that must  be accomplished if Decisive Operation is to succeed Shaping Objective Where the enemy is most vulnerable? Where the unit can generate overwhelming combat power? Shaping Decisive COA Development
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA Development “ A Way”
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA Development
Wargaming Methods Belt Technique Avenue-In-Depth Box  Technique
CCIR helps the commander: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0  Initial CCIR
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CCIR are expressed as : FM 5-0  “ What does the commander need to know in a specific situation to make a particular decision in a timely manner?” FM 3-0  Initial CCIR
FM 5-0  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Initial CCIR
BCTP PERCEPTIONS ... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Intent and Guidance
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Commander’s Intent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Commander’s Guidance
1.  Specific courses of action to consider or not to consider, both friendly and enemy, and the priority for addressing them 2.  CCIR 3.  Reconnaissance guidance 4.  Risk guidance 5.  Deception guidance 6.  Fire support guidance  Commander’s Guidance  Key Points (1 of 2)
7.  Mobility and countermobility guidance 8.  Security measures to be implemented 9.  Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS 10.  Any other information the commander wants the staff to consider 11.  Time allocation plan 12.  Type of order to issue 13.  Type of rehearsal to conduct Commander’s Guidance  Key Points (2 of 2)
Receipt of Guidance “ Things to Consider” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA Analysis BCTP PERCEPTIONS...

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Mdmp Bctp

  • 1. Battle Command Seminar MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS ( MDMP ) Major Frank J. Snyder 18 SEP 07
  • 2. Purpose To facilitate a discussion on the Military Decision Making Process to include some techniques and procedures and some key points
  • 3.
  • 4. Decision Making “ Success often depends on superior information that enables superior decisions. Effective decision making combines judgment with information as an element of combat power: it requires knowing if to decide, when to decide, and what to decide. It requires….identifying important information and focusing subordinates and the staff on it.” - FM 3-0
  • 5.
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  • 10.
  • 11. Visualize, Describe, and Direct Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP. It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions. How many steps in MA?
  • 12. 10. Plan use of available time 11. Write the restated mission 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefing 13. Approve the restated mission 14. Develop the initial commander’s intent 15. Issue the commander’s guidance 16. Issue a WARNO 17. Review facts and assumptions 1. Analyze the higher HQ’s order 2. Conduct initial IPB 3. Determine specified, implied and essential tasks 4. Review assets available 5. Determine constraints 6. Identify critical facts and assumptions 7. Conduct risk assessment 8. Determine initial CCIR 9. Determine initial recon annex Mission Analysis What else is important?
  • 13. COA Development Step 3 COA Development Restated mission Cdr’s intent & Initial planning guidance Initial CCIR Initial HVTL IPB products Output Input COA statements & sketches COA brief (optional)
  • 14. ? RISK SIMPLICITY FLEXIBILITY EXPLOIT ENEMY VULNERABILITIES SURPRISE SPEED USE OF TERRAIN MAXIMUM USE OF LIGHT INFANTRY SUFFICIENT TIME ENDSTATE TEMPO MASS ECONOMY OF FORCE SECURITY UNITY OF COMMAND DEPTH SANCTUARY DENIAL LOC SECURITY Evaluation Criteria
  • 15. Sanctuary Denial (x2): The prevention or hindrance of destabilizing force occupation of areas from which they obtain tactical benefit from the use of space, supply, personnel, or facilities. Measured as amount of combat patrols an MSC is capable of conducting within their AO over and above the commitments of Troops to Task. (More is Better) Freedom of Maneuver: Measured as total number of Battalion sized elements required for force protection at Forward Operating Bases. (Fewer is Better) Flexibility: Provides and preserves maximum options for the division and brigade commanders. Measured as the number of branch plans and sequels available to the division commander. (More is better) LOC Security: Ability and degree to which friendly forces operate unhindered by enemy direct action along the MSR. Measured as the length in KMs of Division MSR, the number of chokepoints along the MSR, and the number of forces allocated for security. (Less is better) Command and Control: The authority exercised by a commander over the activities of his assigned units and the ability of a commander to direct their actions. Measured as number of battalions task organized outside of their habitual Brigades, the number of BCTs with more than five task organized Battalions, and the number of follow – on RIPs required. (Fewer is better) EXAMPLE Evaluation Criteria
  • 16.
  • 17. COA Development Essential Task and Purpose Regardless of COA, the unit must accomplish the higher commander’s intent by understanding its essential task(s) and purpose and its unique contribution to the higher commander’s mission success. Tasks for this COA Tasks for this COA Tasks for this COA COA 1 COA 2 COA 3 Essential task and purpose is common to all COAs (Suitability requirement)
  • 18.
  • 19. COA Analysis Mission to subordinate units CCIR Refined COAs Targeting products: HPTL, AGM, TSS Output Input Approved COA Statements and sketches Updated CCIRs Updated IPB products Step 4 COA Analysis (War Game) Who is responsible for what product? Task Organization Wargame results DST and WFF synch matrix WARNO 3? Updated Collection plan Refined Event Temp
  • 20. COA Comparison Commander’s decision brief Step 5 COA COMPARISON War game results Establish criteria Output Input Decision matrix War game brief (optional)
  • 21.
  • 22. LOWER IS BETTER COA Numerical Analysis Decision Matrix CRITERIA 1 2 WEIGHT: x2 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 WEIGHT: x1 SANCTUARY DENIAL FREEDOM OF MANEUVER FLEXIBILITY LOC SECURITY C2 TOTAL 6(7) 8(10) 1(2) 2(4) 1(1) 1(1) 1(1) 2(2) 1(1) 2(2) 2(2) 1(1) Raw Score (Weighted) Example COA Comparison
  • 23. COA Approval Specified type of order Approved COA Step 6 COA APPROVAL Decision matrix Decision brief Output Input Specified type of rehearsal Refine Timeline Modified COA Refined Cdr’s intent
  • 24. Orders Production OPORD Step 7 ORDERS PRODUCTION Approved COA Output Input What does a good order look like? What is good enough?
  • 25.
  • 26. PLANNING CONTINUUM AVAILABLE PLANNING TIME DRIVES MORE TIME LESS TIME Time Constrained MDMP LESS DETAILS IN CDR’S GUIDANCE MORE MORE FLEXIBILITY/LATITUDE LESS OF STAFF MORE NUMBER OF COAs FEWER DEVELOPED MORE LEVEL OF DETAIL/COORDINATION LESS IN OPORD LESS LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT MORE OF COMMANDER
  • 27.
  • 29.
  • 30.
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  • 32.
  • 33.
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  • 35. Mission Analysis (MA) is crucial to the MDMP. It allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization. The result of MA is defining the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions. Mission Analysis
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. Nesting the COA Intents XXXX Task & purpose Missions XXX Shaping XXX Decisive XX Decisive XX Shaping
  • 40. Shaping Determine Shaping Tasks that must be accomplished if Decisive Operation is to succeed Shaping Objective Where the enemy is most vulnerable? Where the unit can generate overwhelming combat power? Shaping Decisive COA Development
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Wargaming Methods Belt Technique Avenue-In-Depth Box Technique
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  • 49.
  • 50. 1. Specific courses of action to consider or not to consider, both friendly and enemy, and the priority for addressing them 2. CCIR 3. Reconnaissance guidance 4. Risk guidance 5. Deception guidance 6. Fire support guidance Commander’s Guidance Key Points (1 of 2)
  • 51. 7. Mobility and countermobility guidance 8. Security measures to be implemented 9. Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS 10. Any other information the commander wants the staff to consider 11. Time allocation plan 12. Type of order to issue 13. Type of rehearsal to conduct Commander’s Guidance Key Points (2 of 2)
  • 52.
  • 53.