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Measuring Social, Health and Economic Impacts of Disasters: Experiences from 9 MICRODIS Sites (special session) Tewkesbury and Morpeth UK Maureen Fordham, Supriya Akerkar, Manuela Scharf, Tim Wind, Laura Irvine [email_address] Disclaimer 3RD INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE IDRC RISK, DISASTERS, CRISIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE - FROM THREATS TO SUSTAINABLE OPPORTUNITIES 30 MAY - 3 JUNE 2010 ¦ DAVOS, SWITZERLAND
Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire  in the South Midlands of England and its location in the UK Flooded in July 2007 Worst flood in recorded history 3 deaths 1000 properties flooded Completed questionnaires:  Flooded = 136; Non-flooded = 76
Morpeth, Northumberland in the northeast of England and its location in the UK ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Social Impacts
[object Object],[object Object],Tewkesbury : Predictors of mental health differed for men and women. For males the main predictor was their self belief in ability to cope, whilst for females, it was their sense of community. Men were more likely to say they could deal with the situation
Morpeth : Not receiving a warning appears to have worsened the whole experience for people.  There was a consistent pattern of higher average ratings of seriousness from those not warned Rating (1 to 10) the seriousness of loss or damage to:
Morpeth :  There was a consistent pattern of higher average ratings (1 to 10) of impacts and consequences of the flood.
[object Object],[object Object],Health Impacts
Morpeth & Tewkesbury : around a quarter of respondents in both sites reported illnesses. Very few were physical Morpeth Frequency %  (rounded) Diarrhoea 1 2 Acute respiratory tract infection (pneumonia, bronchitis) 2 3 Skin infection 2 3 Cancer 2 3 Heart problems / angina 2 3 Infectious disease (including cold/flu) 1 2 Feeling depressed 25 40 Feeling anxious 8 13 Persistently stressed/stressed to an unusual extent 4 7 Insomnia 1 2 High blood pressure 1 2 Other 13 21 Total 62 100
[object Object],[object Object],Tewkesbury : There were differences between the flooded and the ‘control’ groups. Also gender differences.  On both physical functioning and psychological functioning, women in the flood affected group scored significantly lower than men
[object Object],[object Object],Economic impacts
Morpeth : We see a difference in actual damages reported between warned/not warned and according to when the warning was received – those who received a warning  before  the flood had lower damages than those who received one later but the numbers are small (40 and 8) and so the analysis is less secure
Morpeth : Those not warned are less willing to pay (WTP) towards a flood scheme. But those who  are  willing will generally pay more. Many people protested against paying anything at all: they do not trust those in charge; they do not feel they should pay extra to their insurance %

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Measuring Social, Health and Economic Impacts of Disasters: Experiences from 9 MICRODIS Sites (special session)

  • 1. Measuring Social, Health and Economic Impacts of Disasters: Experiences from 9 MICRODIS Sites (special session) Tewkesbury and Morpeth UK Maureen Fordham, Supriya Akerkar, Manuela Scharf, Tim Wind, Laura Irvine [email_address] Disclaimer 3RD INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE IDRC RISK, DISASTERS, CRISIS AND GLOBAL CHANGE - FROM THREATS TO SUSTAINABLE OPPORTUNITIES 30 MAY - 3 JUNE 2010 ¦ DAVOS, SWITZERLAND
  • 2. Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire in the South Midlands of England and its location in the UK Flooded in July 2007 Worst flood in recorded history 3 deaths 1000 properties flooded Completed questionnaires: Flooded = 136; Non-flooded = 76
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Morpeth : Not receiving a warning appears to have worsened the whole experience for people. There was a consistent pattern of higher average ratings of seriousness from those not warned Rating (1 to 10) the seriousness of loss or damage to:
  • 7. Morpeth : There was a consistent pattern of higher average ratings (1 to 10) of impacts and consequences of the flood.
  • 8.
  • 9. Morpeth & Tewkesbury : around a quarter of respondents in both sites reported illnesses. Very few were physical Morpeth Frequency % (rounded) Diarrhoea 1 2 Acute respiratory tract infection (pneumonia, bronchitis) 2 3 Skin infection 2 3 Cancer 2 3 Heart problems / angina 2 3 Infectious disease (including cold/flu) 1 2 Feeling depressed 25 40 Feeling anxious 8 13 Persistently stressed/stressed to an unusual extent 4 7 Insomnia 1 2 High blood pressure 1 2 Other 13 21 Total 62 100
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Morpeth : We see a difference in actual damages reported between warned/not warned and according to when the warning was received – those who received a warning before the flood had lower damages than those who received one later but the numbers are small (40 and 8) and so the analysis is less secure
  • 13. Morpeth : Those not warned are less willing to pay (WTP) towards a flood scheme. But those who are willing will generally pay more. Many people protested against paying anything at all: they do not trust those in charge; they do not feel they should pay extra to their insurance %

Editor's Notes

  1. Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire July 2007 Flood Worst flood in recorded history Almost two months rainfall in just one day in Tewkesbury 1000 properties (810 residential) directly flooded – many others affected Town centre completely cut off from vehicles Residents without water for up to 18 days 3 deaths Many households displaced Completed questionnaires: Flooded = 136; Non-flooded = 76 Response rate = 57% (after adjustment) Dataset = 44% male; 56% female 62% married/partners; 15% single; the remainder widowed, divorced/separated Age (figures are rounded up) 18-24 = 2% 25-39 = 11% 40-64 = 53% 65+ = 35%
  2. First major flood since 1963 and largest on record (overtopped and damaged defence walls) 1 in 100 year flood event (estimate – likely larger) Slow moving storm system with 200-300% of average September rainfall in 2 days on already saturated soils 1012 properties (913 residential) flooded More than 400 evacuations/rescues on the day Many people displaced