This document summarizes consumer sentiment surveys conducted by McKinsey & Company in Germany and Europe in April 2022. The key findings are:
1) Germans' top concerns are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine, and optimism about economic recovery is lower than during the COVID pandemic.
2) Low-income Germans and millennials are most worried about rising prices, while high-income and older consumers are more concerned about Ukraine.
3) Germans view their economy more neutrally than other Europeans, though pessimism is higher among low-income groups.
4) Uncertainty over energy, supply issues, and inflation is driving pessimism about the short-term economic outlook across Europe.
Across the continent, the pattern holds: Europeans are anxious about the state of their countries’ economies, and worried about the future. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and price inflation overshadow other concerns, and consumer anxieties in turn are impacting confidence in household finances and national economies, especially among vulnerable populations.
Worried about spending more on food, transport and fuel, consumers report cutting back on less essential items. Most say they’ve changed their shopping behaviors in recent months, trading down to more affordable brands and retailers. With no relief clearly in sight, 2022 continues to prove a challenging year for the continental consumer.
German consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and we see a significant down-trade in shopping.
In Germany, consumers’ top concerns are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine, followed by climate change and COVID-19. Pessimism about the current and future state of the economy has eased but remains at a level comparable to attitudes in the early months of the COVID-19-pandemic. As spend for groceries and gasoline soared, consumers reduced money directed to savings and spent less on non-essentials. Of the 70 percent of consumers who have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last three months, more than four out of ten tried private labels. Trade-down in stores visited and brands is clearly visible, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money. However, 46 percent of consumers say they plan to splurge in 2022.
For consumers in France, inflation eclipses other sources of concern. It triggers changes in shopping behaviors as consumers seek better value for money.
French consumers’ optimism regarding the economic recovery is stable at around 14 percent—a level last seen in the depths of COVID-19 lockdowns. Top sources of concern are rising prices (cited by 54 percent), followed by the invasion of Ukraine (13 percent) and climate change (10 percent) and far ahead of COVID-19 (4 percent). Nine out of ten survey respondents perceive high price inflation in the country. These trends have implications for brand and retailer loyalty: of the 73 percent of respondents saying they have tried new shopping behaviors in the last three months, 40 percent say they purchased private labels. Household products remain the category most affected by this trading-down trend.
Japanese consumers’ behaviors and finances are gradually recovering to normal, though their responses indicate a slight increase in pessimism. The long-lasting impact of COVID-19 is prolonging Japanese consumers’ intent to stay conservative about spending across categories. In a further sign of cautiousness, the trend of shrinking pessimism over the past few years reversed for the first time. Meanwhile, people’s demand for travel is rising, considering the next seasonal vacations.
As inflation rises, French consumer hopes for economic recovery wane, with optimism sinking back to the lows of lockdown.
Optimism regarding the economic recovery has decreased to 14 percent in France—levels last seen in the depths of COVID-19 lockdown. Top sources of concern are rising prices, the invasion of Ukraine, and political uncertainty. Nine out of ten survey respondents perceive high price inflation in the country, and 60 percent expect prices to rise further over the next year. These trends have implications for loyalty: in the search for higher purchasing power, 69 percent of respondents have tried new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks. Household products remain the most impacted category, with 65 percent of consumers switching for cheaper options.
Italian consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, with many aiming to reduce spending and modify consumption habits.
Italian consumers are increasingly worried about the effects of rising prices, as well as the invasion of Ukraine. Of Italians surveyed, six in ten expressed a negative view of the current economy; hopes for an economic recovery are lower than they were throughout the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers perceived the highest price increases in groceries and fuel, along with strong increase in spend. These sentiments have translated into reduced consumption. Changed consumer behavior is also apparent, with a shift towards discounters and private-label brands. Price, value for money and availability are the biggest drivers of these choices.
Spanish consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices, unemployment, and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and consumers are trading down.
In Spain, consumers are most concerned about rising prices, unemployment, and the invasion of Ukraine. Their views of the current and future state of the economy remain pessimistic, at a level comparable to attitudes in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Spend for groceries and gasoline soared, while consumers reduced money directed to savings and spent less on non-essentials. Of the 80 percent of consumers who have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last three months in search of value for money, more than half tried private labels. Trade-down in retailers visited and brands is evident, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money. However, 39 percent of consumers say they plan to splurge in 2022.
Most Korean consumers expect that normalcy will return to routines only after June 2022, yet there are signs of pre-COVID-19 routines returning.
Korean customers have been less optimistic than those in other countries about the economic recovery. But optimism in Korea is much higher now than two years ago. Half of consumers indicate a desire to splurge, with intent to do so being the strongest in Gen Z and millennials. One-eighth of consumers say they have returned to out-of-home activities.
Across the continent, the pattern holds: Europeans are anxious about the state of their countries’ economies, and worried about the future. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and price inflation overshadow other concerns, and consumer anxieties in turn are impacting confidence in household finances and national economies, especially among vulnerable populations.
Worried about spending more on food, transport and fuel, consumers report cutting back on less essential items. Most say they’ve changed their shopping behaviors in recent months, trading down to more affordable brands and retailers. With no relief clearly in sight, 2022 continues to prove a challenging year for the continental consumer.
German consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and we see a significant down-trade in shopping.
In Germany, consumers’ top concerns are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine, followed by climate change and COVID-19. Pessimism about the current and future state of the economy has eased but remains at a level comparable to attitudes in the early months of the COVID-19-pandemic. As spend for groceries and gasoline soared, consumers reduced money directed to savings and spent less on non-essentials. Of the 70 percent of consumers who have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last three months, more than four out of ten tried private labels. Trade-down in stores visited and brands is clearly visible, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money. However, 46 percent of consumers say they plan to splurge in 2022.
For consumers in France, inflation eclipses other sources of concern. It triggers changes in shopping behaviors as consumers seek better value for money.
French consumers’ optimism regarding the economic recovery is stable at around 14 percent—a level last seen in the depths of COVID-19 lockdowns. Top sources of concern are rising prices (cited by 54 percent), followed by the invasion of Ukraine (13 percent) and climate change (10 percent) and far ahead of COVID-19 (4 percent). Nine out of ten survey respondents perceive high price inflation in the country. These trends have implications for brand and retailer loyalty: of the 73 percent of respondents saying they have tried new shopping behaviors in the last three months, 40 percent say they purchased private labels. Household products remain the category most affected by this trading-down trend.
Japanese consumers’ behaviors and finances are gradually recovering to normal, though their responses indicate a slight increase in pessimism. The long-lasting impact of COVID-19 is prolonging Japanese consumers’ intent to stay conservative about spending across categories. In a further sign of cautiousness, the trend of shrinking pessimism over the past few years reversed for the first time. Meanwhile, people’s demand for travel is rising, considering the next seasonal vacations.
As inflation rises, French consumer hopes for economic recovery wane, with optimism sinking back to the lows of lockdown.
Optimism regarding the economic recovery has decreased to 14 percent in France—levels last seen in the depths of COVID-19 lockdown. Top sources of concern are rising prices, the invasion of Ukraine, and political uncertainty. Nine out of ten survey respondents perceive high price inflation in the country, and 60 percent expect prices to rise further over the next year. These trends have implications for loyalty: in the search for higher purchasing power, 69 percent of respondents have tried new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks. Household products remain the most impacted category, with 65 percent of consumers switching for cheaper options.
Italian consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, with many aiming to reduce spending and modify consumption habits.
Italian consumers are increasingly worried about the effects of rising prices, as well as the invasion of Ukraine. Of Italians surveyed, six in ten expressed a negative view of the current economy; hopes for an economic recovery are lower than they were throughout the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers perceived the highest price increases in groceries and fuel, along with strong increase in spend. These sentiments have translated into reduced consumption. Changed consumer behavior is also apparent, with a shift towards discounters and private-label brands. Price, value for money and availability are the biggest drivers of these choices.
Spanish consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices, unemployment, and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and consumers are trading down.
In Spain, consumers are most concerned about rising prices, unemployment, and the invasion of Ukraine. Their views of the current and future state of the economy remain pessimistic, at a level comparable to attitudes in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Spend for groceries and gasoline soared, while consumers reduced money directed to savings and spent less on non-essentials. Of the 80 percent of consumers who have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last three months in search of value for money, more than half tried private labels. Trade-down in retailers visited and brands is evident, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money. However, 39 percent of consumers say they plan to splurge in 2022.
Most Korean consumers expect that normalcy will return to routines only after June 2022, yet there are signs of pre-COVID-19 routines returning.
Korean customers have been less optimistic than those in other countries about the economic recovery. But optimism in Korea is much higher now than two years ago. Half of consumers indicate a desire to splurge, with intent to do so being the strongest in Gen Z and millennials. One-eighth of consumers say they have returned to out-of-home activities.
UK consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and consumers are trading down significantly.
In the United Kingdom, consumers are most concerned about rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. Their views of the current and future state of the economy are extremely pessimistic, worse than throughout the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Spend for groceries and gasoline soared, while consumers reduced spend in non-essential categories. Almost two-thirds of consumers have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks, with more than four out of ten trying private label. Trade-down in retailers visited and brands is evident, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money.
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
Australian consumers, in view of the omicron variant, are feeling less optimistic about economic recovery than last year and remain cautious on spending.
In Australia, optimism about economic recovery has declined since the November 2020 pulse survey but remains higher than at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Six in ten consumers predict routines will return to normal only after June 2022; two-thirds do not plan to splurge in 2022. Although Australian households increased their spending in the past month, net intent to spend remains negative. Digital and omnichannel adoption continues in most categories, and intent to use out-of-home services rose. Seventy-five percent of consumers have addressed the rise of omicron by changing how they engage in out-of-home activities. Most consumers have tried a different brand or retailer, especially to switch brands in pursuit of value.
Optimism and spend intent returning
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 up by more than 50% since February (from 21% to 34%); strongest growth in spend intent for out-of-home entertainment and travel, but most categories are increasing
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The Rapidly Evolving Landscape of Meal Kits and E-commerce in Food & BeverageL.E.K. Consulting
Consumers are increasingly strapped for time, and when they’re shopping for and preparing fresh, healthy food, every extra minute counts. Here’s where meal kits and e-commerce come in: they give consumers control and the ability to personalize their meals, while saving them valuable time otherwise spent on shopping and food prep.
In this webinar, Rob Wilson, Managing Director at L.E.K. Consulting, and The Food Institute will explore the $150 billion land grab of e-commerce sales in food & beverage and the role of meal kits in this rapidly evolving landscape.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
L.E.K. Consulting recently surveyed more than 200 U.S. brand managers and packaging stakeholders at consumer packaged goods companies to understand their packaging needs and views on trends driving demand.
The survey focused on topics that include:
- Brand trends and their effect on packaging demand
- Shifts within packaging (e.g., new materials, packaging innovations)
- Perspectives on packaging demand (including forecast spend on packaging for their brands)
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings from this proprietary research
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
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Now that China’s major online players have conquered the consumer space, they’re intent on, digitizing B2B industries and building platform-based businesses. China’s consumer internet is driving the development of the industrial internet, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), AliResearch and the Baidu Development Research Center. Comparing the development of China’s consumer internet and industrial internet with foreign markets for the first time, the report systematically reviews China’s internet players’ entrance into the industrial internet, revealing the unique digitalization path in China and its underlying causes.
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyL.E.K. Consulting
Think nutritional supplements and skincare are of interest only to consumers of a certain age? Think again. According to L.E.K. Consulting’s third installment of a biennial survey of the healthy living marketplace, this one focusing on nutrition and skincare, some 80% of health and wellness (H&W) consumers across generations — from millennials to baby boomers — are highly engaged with both categories.
The survey captured insights from more than 1,600 respondents, representing roughly 77% of the U.S. adult population who identify with H&W themes, and generated eight key insights across categories. Together these insights make clear that consumer interest in nutritional supplements and skincare often lasts a lifetime.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
Rising prices and the Ukraine invasion are top concerns for German consumers, fueling a general slide into economic pessimism.
German consumers are experiencing intense unease regarding the state of the economy and its future outlook—with public sentiment sinking lower than at any time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey participants felt the greatest concern about rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. Spend on groceries and gasoline has soared, even as consumers cut spending in non-essential categories. Almost two-thirds have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks, with more than forty percent trying private-label brands. There’s a clear trade-down trend in stores visited and brands chosen, with prices and value for money as key drivers.
Spanish consumers are primarily concerned about inflation and the invasion of Ukraine, and are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy.
Only 14 percent of Spanish consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, with concerns focused on inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Four in ten have an increasingly negative sense of the economic outlook—mostly due to petrol and supply-chain shortages, as well as unemployment. Price-increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high regarding groceries (at 95 percent) and other household products. In these categories, more than half of respondents have reacted to inflation by trying less costly brands. Over the last six weeks, half have tried a private-label brand, 30 percent have switched brands, and a quarter have tried out a different retailer.
UK consumers are pessimistic about the economy. Rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine are top concerns, and consumers are trading down significantly.
In the United Kingdom, consumers are most concerned about rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. Their views of the current and future state of the economy are extremely pessimistic, worse than throughout the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Spend for groceries and gasoline soared, while consumers reduced spend in non-essential categories. Almost two-thirds of consumers have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks, with more than four out of ten trying private label. Trade-down in retailers visited and brands is evident, with the key drivers of choice being prices and value for money.
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
Australian consumers, in view of the omicron variant, are feeling less optimistic about economic recovery than last year and remain cautious on spending.
In Australia, optimism about economic recovery has declined since the November 2020 pulse survey but remains higher than at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Six in ten consumers predict routines will return to normal only after June 2022; two-thirds do not plan to splurge in 2022. Although Australian households increased their spending in the past month, net intent to spend remains negative. Digital and omnichannel adoption continues in most categories, and intent to use out-of-home services rose. Seventy-five percent of consumers have addressed the rise of omicron by changing how they engage in out-of-home activities. Most consumers have tried a different brand or retailer, especially to switch brands in pursuit of value.
Optimism and spend intent returning
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 up by more than 50% since February (from 21% to 34%); strongest growth in spend intent for out-of-home entertainment and travel, but most categories are increasing
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The Rapidly Evolving Landscape of Meal Kits and E-commerce in Food & BeverageL.E.K. Consulting
Consumers are increasingly strapped for time, and when they’re shopping for and preparing fresh, healthy food, every extra minute counts. Here’s where meal kits and e-commerce come in: they give consumers control and the ability to personalize their meals, while saving them valuable time otherwise spent on shopping and food prep.
In this webinar, Rob Wilson, Managing Director at L.E.K. Consulting, and The Food Institute will explore the $150 billion land grab of e-commerce sales in food & beverage and the role of meal kits in this rapidly evolving landscape.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
L.E.K. Consulting recently surveyed more than 200 U.S. brand managers and packaging stakeholders at consumer packaged goods companies to understand their packaging needs and views on trends driving demand.
The survey focused on topics that include:
- Brand trends and their effect on packaging demand
- Shifts within packaging (e.g., new materials, packaging innovations)
- Perspectives on packaging demand (including forecast spend on packaging for their brands)
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings from this proprietary research
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...Boston Consulting Group
Now that China’s major online players have conquered the consumer space, they’re intent on, digitizing B2B industries and building platform-based businesses. China’s consumer internet is driving the development of the industrial internet, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), AliResearch and the Baidu Development Research Center. Comparing the development of China’s consumer internet and industrial internet with foreign markets for the first time, the report systematically reviews China’s internet players’ entrance into the industrial internet, revealing the unique digitalization path in China and its underlying causes.
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyL.E.K. Consulting
Think nutritional supplements and skincare are of interest only to consumers of a certain age? Think again. According to L.E.K. Consulting’s third installment of a biennial survey of the healthy living marketplace, this one focusing on nutrition and skincare, some 80% of health and wellness (H&W) consumers across generations — from millennials to baby boomers — are highly engaged with both categories.
The survey captured insights from more than 1,600 respondents, representing roughly 77% of the U.S. adult population who identify with H&W themes, and generated eight key insights across categories. Together these insights make clear that consumer interest in nutritional supplements and skincare often lasts a lifetime.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
Rising prices and the Ukraine invasion are top concerns for German consumers, fueling a general slide into economic pessimism.
German consumers are experiencing intense unease regarding the state of the economy and its future outlook—with public sentiment sinking lower than at any time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey participants felt the greatest concern about rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. Spend on groceries and gasoline has soared, even as consumers cut spending in non-essential categories. Almost two-thirds have assumed new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks, with more than forty percent trying private-label brands. There’s a clear trade-down trend in stores visited and brands chosen, with prices and value for money as key drivers.
Spanish consumers are primarily concerned about inflation and the invasion of Ukraine, and are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy.
Only 14 percent of Spanish consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, with concerns focused on inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Four in ten have an increasingly negative sense of the economic outlook—mostly due to petrol and supply-chain shortages, as well as unemployment. Price-increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high regarding groceries (at 95 percent) and other household products. In these categories, more than half of respondents have reacted to inflation by trying less costly brands. Over the last six weeks, half have tried a private-label brand, 30 percent have switched brands, and a quarter have tried out a different retailer.
Pessimism about recovery is at an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Rising prices are the top concern, with consumers significantly trading down in stores and products. UK consumers are feeling great economic uncertainty. With energy and transport costs eating away at consumer savings and non-food spend, the top reasons given by survey participants for economic anxiety are the gas supply, supply-chain shortages, and energy issues. Consumers report the highest perceived price increases in groceries and household supplies, with two-thirds becoming more conscious about energy usage. Half of consumers changed their grocery brands in the last four to six weeks, with trading down a clear trend: price and value were the strongest drivers here.
Italian consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, with many aiming to reduce spending and modify consumption habits.
Italian consumers are increasingly worried about the effects of rising prices, as well as the invasion of Ukraine. Of Italians surveyed, six in ten expressed a negative view of the current economy; hopes for an economic recovery are lower than they were throughout the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers perceived the highest price increases in groceries and fuel, along with strong increase in spend. These sentiments have translated into reduced consumption. Changed consumer behavior is also apparent, with a shift towards discounters and private-label brands. Price, value for money and availability are the biggest drivers of these choices.
Across the continent, the pattern holds: Europeans are anxious about the state of their countries’ economies, and pessimistic about the future. Price inflation and the war in Ukraine overshadow other concerns, and these anxieties in turn are causing confidence in household finances and national economies to plummet, especially among low-income households and the elderly. As consumers worry about spending ever more on food, transport and fuel, they cut back on less essential items. Most say they’ve changed their shopping behaviors in recent months, trading down to more affordable brands and retailers. With no relief clearly in sight, 2022 continues to prove an unusually challenging year for the embattled continental consumer.
COVID-19 is no longer among Italian consumers’ top concerns. Consumers remain pessimistic about economic recovery and inflation; many aim to reduce their spend.
Italian consumers are increasingly worried about the effects of rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. Unemployment is a number-two concern for respondents in Gen Z, millennials, and the low-income group. Almost six out of ten share a negative view of Italy’s current economic state; hopes for an economic recovery are lower than during the entire COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers observed the highest price increases in groceries and gasoline. To cope with inflation, Italian consumers are changing their purchase behavior, shifting toward discounters and private labels. The leading factors for these choices are prices and value for money.
As inflation rises, French consumer hopes for economic recovery wane, with optimism sinking back to the lows of lockdown. Optimism regarding the economic recovery has decreased to 14 percent in France—levels last seen in the depths of COVID-19 lockdown. Top sources of concern are rising prices, the invasion of Ukraine, and political uncertainty. Nine out of ten survey respondents perceive high price inflation in the country, and 60 percent expect prices to rise further over the next year. These trends have implications for loyalty: in the search for higher purchasing power, 69 percent of respondents have tried new shopping behaviors in the last four to six weeks. Household products remain the most impacted category, with 65 percent of consumers switching for cheaper options.
Spanish consumers are primarily concerned about inflation and the invasion of Ukraine, and are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy.
Only 14 percent of Spanish consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, with concerns focused on inflation and the invasion of Ukraine. Four in ten have an increasingly negative sense of the economic outlook—mostly due to petrol and supply-chain shortages, as well as unemployment. Price-increase Perceptions of price increases are particularly high regarding groceries (at 95 percent) and other household products. In these categories, more than half of respondents have reacted to inflation by trying less costly brands. Over the last six weeks, half have tried a private-label brand, 30 percent have switched brands, and a quarter have tried out a different retailer.
Pessimism about recovery is at an all-time high in the United Kingdom. Rising prices are the top concern, with consumers significantly trading down in stores and products. UK consumers are feeling great economic uncertainty. With energy and transport costs eating away at consumer savings and non-food spend, the top reasons given by survey participants for economic anxiety are the gas supply, supply-chain shortages, and energy issues. Consumers report the highest perceived price increases in groceries and household supplies, with two-thirds becoming more conscious about energy usage. Half of consumers changed their grocery brands in the last four to six weeks, with trading down a clear trend: price and value were the strongest drivers here.
Despite an ongoing lockdown, German consumers’ expectations for economic recovery are stable, with half believing their routines will return to normal by the end of 2021.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Germany from February 23–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on German consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
Despite an ongoing lockdown, German consumers’ expectations for economic recovery are stable, with half believing their routines will return to normal by the end of 2021.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Germany from February 23–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on German consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
Despite an ongoing lockdown, German consumers’ expectations for economic recovery are stable, with half believing their routines will return to normal by the end of 2021.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Germany from February 23–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on German consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
Optimism and spend intent returning
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 up by more than 50% since February (from 21% to 34%); strongest growth in spend intent for out-of-home entertainment and travel, but most categories are increasing
Optimism and spend intent returning
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 up by more than 50% since February (from 21% to 34%); strongest growth in spend intent for out-of-home entertainment and travel, but most categories are increasing
Boost in optimism and spend intent
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 are up by more than 50% since February; strongest growth in spend intent is for out-of-home entertainment, dining out, and travel.
European consumers are gradually returning to pre-COVID-19 spending and out-of-home activities, including holiday shopping, though some pandemic-related practices will continue.
Boost in optimism and spend intent
Consumer optimism regarding economic conditions after COVID-19 are up by more than 50% since February; strongest growth in spend intent is for out-of-home entertainment, dining out, and travel
Despite ongoing lockdowns, European optimism about economic recovery remains steady, except in the United Kingdom, where it is at its highest of the pandemic.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in the France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom from February 23–27, 2021. Check back for regular updates on the European consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
Optimism grows as categories recover
One-third (32%) of French consumers are optimistic for the future —the highest rate seen in our surveys; while net spending intent remains negative, it is trending up across all categories
Optimism grows as categories recover
One-third (32%) of French consumers are optimistic for the future —the highest rate seen in our surveys; while net spending intent remains negative, it is trending up across all categories
Similar to McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping German consumer behavior (20)
Indian consumers’ optimism has remained high since October 2021 and has reached the highest levels across other Asian markets since COVID-19 started.
Nearly three-quarters of India’s consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, and net intent to spend is growing and positive across many categories. Omnichannel usage continues across the majority of categories, and social-media influence is high, especially for Gen Z and millennials. More than 90 percent are engaging in social media and entertainment platforms. There is an upward trend for new technology, such as crypto and augmented reality/virtual reality, and consumers intend to continue digital activities as the COVID-19 crisis subsides.
About 40 percent of consumers are engaging in out-of-home activities, especially among the vaccinated segment. Most consumers have tried new shopping behaviors such as new retail outlets and new brands.
Indonesian consumers remain optimistic on the economy, expecting higher incomes and spending. Many tried and plan to keep using digital services and omnichannel methods.
In Indonesia, optimism about future economic conditions increased more than 25 percent over September 2020 from an already high base, boosted by planning for the upcoming holiday season. Eight out of ten consumers say they will dine out, shop for gifts, and redecorate. Out-of-home activities are generally rising but remain far below prepandemic levels. Optimism about the economy is tempered by views of household finances; half predict finances won’t return to normal before June. The loyalty shake-up continues, with 60 percent citing value as their primary reason to try a new brand. New digital behaviors are starting to show evidence of stickiness: 60 percent say they intend to use new shopping methods when the pandemic subsides.
Indian consumers’ optimism has remained high since October 2021 and has reached the highest levels across other Asian markets since COVID-19 started.
Nearly three-quarters of India’s consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, and net intent to spend is growing and positive across many categories. Omnichannel usage continues across the majority of categories, and social-media influence is high, especially for Gen Z and millennials. More than 90 percent are engaging in social media and entertainment platforms. There is an upward trend for new technology, such as crypto and augmented reality/virtual reality, and consumers intend to continue digital activities as the COVID-19 crisis subsides.
About 40 percent of consumers are engaging in out-of-home activities, especially among the vaccinated segment. Most consumers have tried new shopping behaviors such as new retail outlets and new brands.
Indonesian consumers remain optimistic on the economy, expecting higher incomes and spending. Many tried and plan to keep using digital services and omnichannel methods.
In Indonesia, optimism about future economic conditions increased more than 25 percent over September 2020 from an already high base, boosted by planning for the upcoming holiday season. Eight out of ten consumers say they will dine out, shop for gifts, and redecorate. Out-of-home activities are generally rising but remain far below prepandemic levels. Optimism about the economy is tempered by views of household finances; half predict finances won’t return to normal before June. The loyalty shake-up continues, with 60 percent citing value as their primary reason to try a new brand. New digital behaviors are starting to show evidence of stickiness: 60 percent say they intend to use new shopping methods when the pandemic subsides.
Australian consumers, in view of the omicron variant, are feeling less optimistic about economic recovery than last year and remain cautious on spending.
In Australia, optimism about economic recovery has declined since the November 2020 pulse survey but remains higher than at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Six in ten consumers predict routines will return to normal only after June 2022; two-thirds do not plan to splurge in 2022. Although Australian households increased their spending in the past month, net intent to spend remains negative. Digital and omnichannel adoption continues in most categories, and intent to use out-of-home services rose. Seventy-five percent of consumers have addressed the rise of omicron by changing how they engage in out-of-home activities. Most consumers have tried a different brand or retailer, especially to switch brands in pursuit of value.
Chinese consumers have grown less optimistic about the economy, likely due to recent outbreaks of the omicron variant.
In China, overall optimism on economic recovery remains high relative to other countries surveyed. However, the share of optimistic consumers has decreased by more than ten percentage points versus October 2021, likely in reaction to recent omicron outbreaks. Omnichannel shopping behavior and adoption of digital activities continue to prevail, and intent to continue these is high. Meanwhile, intent to spend on out-of-home activities has decreased significantly.
Indonesian consumers remain optimistic on the economy, expecting higher incomes and spending. Many tried and plan to keep using digital services and omnichannel methods.
In Indonesia, optimism about future economic conditions increased more than 25 percent over September 2020 from an already high base, boosted by planning for the upcoming holiday season. Eight out of ten consumers say they will dine out, shop for gifts, and redecorate. Out-of-home activities are generally rising but remain far below prepandemic levels. Optimism about the economy is tempered by views of household finances; half predict finances won’t return to normal before June. The loyalty shake-up continues, with 60 percent citing value as their primary reason to try a new brand. New digital behaviors are starting to show evidence of stickiness: 60 percent say they intend to use new shopping methods when the pandemic subsides.
Most Korean consumers expect that normalcy will return to routines only after June 2022, yet there are signs of pre-COVID-19 routines returning.
Korean customers have been less optimistic than those in other countries about the economic recovery. But optimism in Korea is much higher now than two years ago. Half of consumers indicate a desire to splurge, with intent to do so being the strongest in Gen Z and millennials. One-eighth of consumers say they have returned to out-of-home activities.
Indian consumers’ optimism has remained high since October 2021 and has reached the highest levels across other Asian markets since COVID-19 started.
Nearly three-quarters of India’s consumers are optimistic about economic recovery, and net intent to spend is growing and positive across many categories. Omnichannel usage continues across the majority of categories, and social-media influence is high, especially for Gen Z and millennials. More than 90 percent are engaging in social media and entertainment platforms. There is an upward trend for new technology, such as crypto and augmented reality/virtual reality, and consumers intend to continue digital activities as the COVID-19 crisis subsides.
About 40 percent of consumers are engaging in out-of-home activities, especially among the vaccinated segment. Most consumers have tried new shopping behaviors such as new retail outlets and new brands.
Japanese consumers’ behaviors and finances are gradually recovering to normal, though their responses indicate a slight increase in pessimism. The long-lasting impact of COVID-19 is prolonging Japanese consumers’ intent to stay conservative about spending across categories. In a further sign of cautiousness, the trend of shrinking pessimism over the past few years reversed for the first time. Meanwhile, people’s demand for travel is rising, considering the next seasonal vacations.
US consumers exhibited strong optimism and spend in October, driven by consumers across the age and income spectrum.
Check back for regular updates on US consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.
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McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping German consumer behavior
1. McKinsey & Company 1
The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had deep human, as well as social and economic,
impact across countries and sectors.
The implications of the invasion of Ukraine are also rapidly evolving and inherently uncertain.
As a result, this document and the data and analysis it sets out should be treated as a best-efforts
perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken
by leaders of relevant organizations.
The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as
doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on
sanctions or export control issues.
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
In Germany, as across the Europe 5, consumers’
top concerns are rising prices (cited by 40%) and
the invasion of Ukraine (34%), way ahead of
COVID-19 (8%)
54% of consumers have a negative view of the
current status of the German economy
Uncertainty regarding energy shortages (53%)
and supply chain shortages (50%) are the
strongest drivers of economic pessimism
Optimism about an economic recovery is lower
than it has been during the COVID-19 pandemic
Nine in ten German consumers perceived an
overall price change, especially for groceries and
gasoline, resulting in a strong increase in spend
In most other categories, spend has already
been reduced, and further reductions are expected,
especially in outer appearance, entertainment, and
travel
Consumer demand changes are most evident in
more conscious use of home energy (cited by
55%)
64% of consumers, especially Gen Z (86%), say
they tried a new shopping behavior in the last few
weeks
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care
Prices and value for money are key decision
criteria in choices of new retailers and brands,
followed by availability of products
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
3. McKinsey & Company 3
Despite the pandemic’s continuing grip on societies in Europe,
rising prices and invasion of Ukraine have now by far overtaken
COVID-19 as top concerns for consumers
Germany UK Italy
France2 Spain
1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, due to rounding.
2. For France, political insecurity (9%) and immigration (8%) are concerns mentioned by more than 5% of consumers.
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
12
5
7
8
24
44
Europe 5
9
21
11 9 8
7
8
6
11 14
8
6
7
11
7
34
18
15
32
21
40 44
60
32
47
3
2 4
4
3
Rising prices
Invasion of Ukraine
COVID-19 pandemic
Unemployment/job security
Extreme weather events
Other
Top source of concern1
% of respondents
4. McKinsey & Company 4
In Germany, consumers’ greatest source of concern is rising prices,
followed by the invasion of Ukraine
80
67
43
35
23
18
15
14
1
2
Cost/accessibility of healthcare
Invasion of Ukraine
Rising prices
Political uncertainty
COVID-19 pandemic
Unemployment/job security
Extreme weather events/climate change
Immigration
Brexit
Other
1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3.
2. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today?
Top sources of concern today
% of respondents
40
34
8
7
4
2
2
2
1
0
Among top 3 sources of concern1 Top source of concern2
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
5. McKinsey & Company 5
Rising prices are particularly worrying for low-income and
millennial consumers; concerns about Ukraine are over-indexed in
high-income consumers and baby boomers (1/2)
11
7
8
34
40
Overall
Top source of concern1
% of respondents
13 10 11
4 6
10
9 8
6
25
34
41
49
41
32
Low income Middle
income
High
income
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
15 13 15
6
9
8 7
6
14
6 5
8
22
25
39
42
40
48
35 37
Gen X
Gen Z Millennials Baby
boomers
1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today?
2. Other includes immigration, cost and accessibility of healthcare, Brexit, political uncertainty.
Split by generation
Split by income
Other
Rising prices
Invasion of Ukraine
COVID-19 pandemic
Extreme weather events
6. McKinsey & Company 6
Top 3 sources of concern1
% of respondents
1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3.
80
67
43
35
23
18
15
14
1
4
Rising prices
Immigration
Invasion of Ukraine
Unemployment/job security
COVID-19 pandemic
Extreme weather events/climate change
Cost/accessibility of healthcare
Political uncertainty
Brexit
Other
High
income
Middle
income
Low
income
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby
boomer
87
55
46
32
23
23
12
20
3
0
82
67
46
33
25
14
16
13
2
1
74
75
39
40
22
18
17
11
2
2
73
53
47
34
13
21
24
28
6
1
83
61
36
35
23
22
16
20
0
3
81
69
38
34
30
17
14
13
1
2
81
75
51
36
21
15
13
6
1
2
Split by generation
Split by income
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
Rising prices are particularly worrying for low-income and
millennial consumers; concerns about Ukraine are over-indexed in
high-income consumers and baby boomers (2/2)
7. McKinsey & Company 7
On their country’s economic condition, German consumers are
more neutral and less negative than those in the rest of Europe 5
55 58 61 63 67
32 29 24 26 22
13 13 15 11 11
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
61
27
13
Neutral
Positive
Negative
Net confidence2 −42 −56
−52
−45 −46
−48
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and
“positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative" answers from all "positive" answers.
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Europe 5
8. McKinsey & Company 8
Low-income groups have a particularly negative perception of the
economy; by generations, Gen Z is relatively optimistic
54
32
13
54
32
13
Negative
Overall
Positive
Neutral
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents
61 52 53
31
35 30
8 13 17
Low (<25K) Middle
(25K– 50K)
High (>50K)
39
54 58 58
34
29 31 34
27 17 11 7
Gen X
Millennials
Gen Z Baby boomers3
By income2
By generation
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very
negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Income brackets for France, Germany, Italy, Spain are in €; for the UK, the same brackets were used with £.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
9. McKinsey & Company 9
Consumers whose biggest concern is the COVID-19 pandemic are
more optimistic than those whose top concern is rising prices
63
54
34 32
30
32
39 45
7
14
27 22
COVID-19
pandemic
Rising prices Invasion
of Ukraine
Extreme
weather events
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents
Net confidence2 −41 −10
−39 −8
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
54
32
13
Negative
Overall
Positive
Neutral
−56
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very
negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative/very negative" answers from all "positive/very positive" answers.
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Supply-related risks are the most common concerns for consumers
with a negative outlook on the economy
1. Q: You mentioned that you are feeling negatively about [COUNTRY]’s economy in light of the Ukraine invasion. Which of the following topics are you most
uncertain about? Please select up to 3. Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Bars only show reasons with agreement >20%.
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
47
42
39
31
27
26
24
16
12
9
3
0
Impact of influx of refugees
Interruption of gasoline supply
Supply chain shortages
Energy shortages
Rising interest rates
Risk of further escalation of the war
Unemployment rates/job security
Food shortages
Risk of nuclear disaster
Uncertainty on the stock market
Restrictions on international travel
Other
41
50
53
33
19
22
14
23
14
8
2
1
45
44
36
29
22
33
20
17
12
10
3
1
53
40
43
30
19
31
33
12
11
7
3
0
49
32
41
29
37
20
23
15
13
11
3
0
46
44
24
34
39
24
28
11
12
10
2
0
Top 3 reasons for negative view on economy1
% of respondents who perceived the current status of economy and/or the economy's outlook as negative
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Europe 5
11. McKinsey & Company 11
15 13 17 16 17 18 17 14
21
33
59 64
62 63 66 59 59
49
52
52
26 24 22 21 17
23 24
37
27
14
Sept 2020 Oct 2021
June 2020
Mar 2020 May 2020
Apr 2020 Feb 2021
Nov 2020 Apr 20223
Mar 2022
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before the
current crisis
Neutral: The economy
will be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: The current
crisis will have lasting
impact on the economy and
show regression or fall into
lengthy recession
In Germany, pessimism hits an all-time high–even exceeding levels
of pessimism since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after crisis,1 % of respondents
20202 2021 2022
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom two
boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," "Neutral", and "Pessimistic." Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020.
3. Question in Apr 2022 was not framed for coronavirus: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1028; 3/22–3/29/2022, n = 1,005; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,025; 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 1,013; 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 9/24–
9/27/2020, n = 1,053; 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 1,011; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 1,008; 4/30–5/3/2020, n = 1,002; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,005; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 1,010; 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 1,002; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,014, 04/14–04/18/2022,
n = 1,028, sampled to match Germany’s general population 18+ years
12. McKinsey & Company 12
33 35 35 38 42
52 51 49 50 44
14 14 16 12 14
Pessimism about economic recovery is high across countries and
more than doubled since October 2021
18
−17
25
−23
24
−19
19
−23
13
−19
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale
aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis1
% of respondents
Germany
Apr 12–18, 2022
Change in % pessimistic vs Oct 2021 survey,
percentage points
Change in % optimistic vs Oct 2021 survey,
percentage points
Optimistic: The economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and grow just as strong
as or stronger than before the current crisis
Neutral: The economy will be impacted for
6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or
show slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: The current crisis will have
lasting impact on the economy and show
regression or fall into lengthy recession
Italy
Apr 12–18
UK
Apr 12–18
France
Apr 12–18
Spain
Apr 12–18, 2022
13. McKinsey & Company 13
One-third of German consumers—40 percent in the low-income
group—have a negative view of the current state of the economy
33
52
14
Neutral
Overall
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Confidence in own country’s expected economic recovery after current crisis1
% of respondents
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale
aggregated to "Optimistic," "Neutral", and "Pessimistic.“ Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Income brackets for France, Germany, Italy, Spain are in €; for UK, the same brackets were used with £.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
40 36 27
49 50 57
11 15 16
High (>50K)
Middle
(25K–50K)
Low (<25K)
16
29 39 39
55
54
49 53
30 17 13
Baby boomers3
Gen Z Gen X
Millennials
8
By income2
By generation
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
14. McKinsey & Company 14
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
In Germany, as across the Europe 5, consumers’
top concerns are rising prices (cited by 40%) and
the invasion of Ukraine (34%), way ahead of
COVID-19 (8%)
54% of consumers have a negative view of the
current status of the German economy
Uncertainty regarding energy shortages (53%)
and supply chain shortages (50%) are the
strongest drivers of economic pessimism
Optimism about an economic recovery is lower
than it has been during the COVID-19 pandemic
Nine in ten German consumers perceived an
overall price change, especially for groceries and
gasoline, resulting in a strong increase in spend
In most other categories, spend has already
been reduced, and further reductions are expected,
especially in outer appearance, entertainment, and
travel
Consumer demand changes are most evident in
more conscious use of home energy (cited by
55%)
64% of consumers, especially Gen Z (86%), say
they tried a new shopping behavior in the last few
weeks
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care
Prices and value for money are key decision
criteria in choices of new retailers and brands,
followed by availability of products
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
15. McKinsey & Company 15
German consumers are in line with the vast majority of Europe 5
respondents in observing price changes
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general change in the prices of any goods you commonly buy?
Inflation, year-over-year,
Mar 2022, %
7.6 5.1 7.0 6.8 9.8
7
93
11
89
12
88
10
90
6
94
Source: OECD (inflation data); McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled
to match European general population 18+ years
9
91
Yes
No
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Europe 5
16. McKinsey & Company 16
Consumers are especially likely to have seen price increases in
groceries and kitchen and dining products
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general increase in the prices of any goods you commonly buy?
2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, How have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly."
3. Calculated by subtracting all "decreased" answers from all "increased/significantly increased" answers.
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
3
3
6
24
29
30
27
30
34
32
36
34
44
38
40
42
37
22
34
43
41
44
32
38
39
31
32
30
30
25
26
24
22
72
55
22
23
16
22
15
12
13
12
12
10
14
9
10
11
1
3
10
6
9
17
17
13
22
17
23
14
21
22
24
27
Skin care and makeup
Pet food and supplies
Home decoration and furniture
Household supplies
Apparel
Fitness and wellness services
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Personal-care products
Kitchen and dining products
Home improvement and gardening supplies
Consumer electronics
Groceries/food for home
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Footwear
Accessories
Jewelry
Decreased
Stayed the same
Increased Not sure
Increased significantly
Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks
General price change perceived1
% of respondents
Price change perceived by category2
% of respondents who shopped category
7
93
Yes
No
Net change3
92
87
64
63
58
53
51
50
43
43
41
38
37
34
32
30
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
17. McKinsey & Company 17
Two-thirds of consumers predict prices will continue to rise in the
next 12 months; however, only 48 percent of Gen Z expect it
66
62
44
29
9
I am concerned that the prices of
everyday purchases have been increasing
I believe prices will continue to rise
throughout the next 12 months
I am planning to buy fewer products/services
in the future if prices continue to rise
I have had to scale back my lifestyle
due to an increase in prices
I intend to use more “buy now, pay
later” services in the coming months
48 64 72 69
44 62 65 65
32 48 48 41
26 33 33 24
11 14 10
Statements Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
Generational cut
Agreement to price-related statements
% of respondents rating statement 5 or 6 on 6-point scale1
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2
percentage points
1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each. Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree."
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here top source of concern.
All consumers
4
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
18. McKinsey & Company 18
As spend on essential products rises, consumers save less and
spend less on nonfood discretionary items—and expect further cuts
Change of spend in general categories
% of respondents
6 10
17
10
29
39
76
30 22
24
43
45
17
60 61 66
28
16
Rent/
mortgage
Energy/
utilities
Transport
and gasoline
Food and
essentials
Nonfood
discretionary
Put money
into savings
Net change3
11 −1
56
50 44 −24 13 3
53
48 40 −19
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 04/12–04/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Higher About the same Lower
7 9 15 10
29
36
73
34
30
27
40
48
20
57 55
63
31
16
Rent/
mortgage
Energy/
utilities
Transport
and gasoline
Food and
essentials
Nonfood
discretionary
Put money
into savings
Change in spend in the last 4–6 weeks1 Expected change in spend in the next 4–6 weeks2
1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.”
"Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine.
2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more” as
well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change.
3. Calculated by subtracting all "lower" answers from all "higher" answer in each column/time frame.
19. McKinsey & Company 19
Majorities of consumers report spend increases and expect further
increases in energy, transport and gasoline, and food
1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased,” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.”
"Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine.
2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more,” as
well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change.
3. Calculated by adding the blue highlighted cells, ie, increased past spend or expect to increase future spend, excluding consumers that have decreased or expect to decrease their spend.
Change of spend in general categories in last 4–6 weeks1 and expected
in next 4–6 weeks,2 % of respondents
Calculation example
Observed/expected price increase,³ % 23
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Decrease No change Increase
Decrease 4 3 1
No change 4 63 6
Increase 2 7 10
Change of spend in
next 4–6 weeks, %
Change
in spend
in last
4–6
weeks,
%
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
25
66
62
69
34
19
21
55
55
53
25
9
31
76
60
62
26
9
15
62
50
41
23
10
21
53
50
52
25
10
Energy/utilities
Transport and gasoline
Food and essentials
Nonfood discretionary
Put money into savings
Rent/mortgage
Europe 5
23
62
55
55
27
12
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points
Observed/expected price
increase,³ %
20. McKinsey & Company 20
+42
+7
-11
-17
-25
-17
-22
-19
-37
-34
-16
-2
+6
-11
-25
-20
-17
+30
Spend on groceries, gasoline, and kitchen has risen strongly and is
expected to further increase, offset by cuts in many other categories
8
14
32
30
38
38
30
30
44
42
29
14
8
20
36
32
31
50
21
21
13
13
21
8
11
7
8
13
12
14
9
11
12
14
40
Apparel
Quick-service restaurant
Groceries
Tobacco products
Food takeout and delivery
Footwear
Alcohol
Restaurant
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Skin care and makeup
Home and furniture
Sports and outdoors
Home improvement, garden
10
Kitchen and dining
Decrease Increase
Stay the same
9
19
17
28
32
40
20
22
24
13
20
34
28
42
29
39
36
47
19
12
11
12
15
16
17
64
32
11
33
15
18
22
19
19
5
Pet food and supplies
International flights
Books/magazines/newspapers
10
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Entertainment at home
Hotel/resort stays
Out-of-home entertainment
Consumer electronics
Pet care services
Cruises
Fitness and wellness
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Short-term home rentals
Vehicles
Travel by car
Adventures and tours
Domestic flights
+34
+1
-20
-20
-26
-14
-27
-20
-37
-32
-16
-3
+1
-10
-29
-26
-17
+21
Net change,3
next 4–6 weeks
+7
-10
−11
-21
-29
-17
-9
-10
-10
+37
+6
-18
+2
-13
-7
-16
-13
-23
Net change,3
last 4–6 weeks
Change, last
4–6 weeks1
Net change,3
next 4–6 weeks
Net change,3
last 4–6 weeks
Change, last
4–6 weeks1
1. Q: In the past 4–6 weeks, how has the amount you have spent on these categories changed? Spent less on this category, spent the same amount, spent more on this category.
2. Q: Over the next 4–6 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Will spend less on this category, will spend about the same, will spend more on this category.
3. Net change is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they decreased spend from the % of respondents stating they increased spend in the respective category.
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
+10
-7
−7
-23
-22
-28
-5
-6
-7
+51
+12
-23
+5
-27
-11
-17
-17
-28
Net change > +15
Net change −15 to +15
Net change < −15
xx xx xx
Change1 and expected change2 of spend by product category
% of respondents who shopped category
21. McKinsey & Company 21
More than half of German consumers, especially baby boomers, say
they have become more conscious about home energy use
1. Q: In which other areas of your life, if any, have you changed your shopping behavior in the last 4–6 weeks?
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
Change in purchase behavior in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
55
20
16
14
11
11
10
9
7
5
5
4
4
21
I have become more conscious about my home energy usage
I have purchased supplies to donate to the Ukraine
humanitarian effort and/or have donated money or time to volunteer
I have stocked up on products (e.g., grocery or household items)
that I use often in the event that there are supply chain shortages
I have changed my mode of transport to use less gasoline/to save money
I have started/increased my purchase of products from companies that
have taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine
I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from Russian companies
I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a car/other vehicle
I have delayed/canceled a pending trip/vacation
I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from companies
that have not taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine
I have offered to shelter/sponsor Ukrainian refugees
I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a new home
I have sold/plan to sell my car or other vehicle
I have sped up my plan to purchase a new home
None of these
Generational cut
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
39 52 51 66
14 19 27 21
15 19 17 24
17 17 17 15
15 13 14 15
17 13 11 9
15 12 11 9
15 15 9 6
9 9 10 6
8 7 6 6
11 8 3 1
11 5 4 2
10 6 3 3
11 5 3 1
All consumers
22. McKinsey & Company 22
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
In Germany, as across the Europe 5, consumers’
top concerns are rising prices (cited by 40%) and
the invasion of Ukraine (34%), way ahead of
COVID-19 (8%)
54% of consumers have a negative view of the
current status of the German economy
Uncertainty regarding energy shortages (53%)
and supply chain shortages (50%) are the
strongest drivers of economic pessimism
Optimism about an economic recovery is lower
than it has been during the COVID-19 pandemic
Nine in ten German consumers perceived an
overall price change, especially for groceries and
gasoline, resulting in a strong increase in spend
In most other categories, spend has already
been reduced, and further reductions are expected,
especially in outer appearance, entertainment, and
travel
Consumer demand changes are most evident in
more conscious use of home energy (cited by
55%)
64% of consumers, especially Gen Z (86%), say
they tried a new shopping behavior in the last few
weeks
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care
Prices and value for money are key decision
criteria in choices of new retailers and brands,
followed by availability of products
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
23. McKinsey & Company 23
v
In purchasing groceries and essentials, 64 percent of consumers
tried a new shopping behavior, with 41 percent trying a private label
64
41
23
23
11
11
10
9
5
Shop from a different website than normal
Any new shopping behavior3
Shop from a different retailer/store than normal
Try a private label/store brand
Try a new digital shopping method
(eg, ordered groceries via app)
Switch to a different brand than normal
New shopping method
Use a new shopping method
(eg, pickup and food delivery subscription)
Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store
Did activities in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Plan to do activities in next 4–6 weeks,2
% of respondents who did not do activity in
the last 4–6 weeks
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)?
2. Q: How likely are you to change your shopping behavior in the next 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? Rated from 1 "Not likely at all" to 6 "Extremely likely". "Extremely likely" and "Likely"
answers counted for planning this activity
3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned.
Activities when shopping for groceries and essentials
35
24
10
13
8
7
6
7
10
Activities
94% of consumers noticed a price increase
when shopping groceries & essentials
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
24. McKinsey & Company 24
64
41
23
23
11
11
10
9
5
Any new shopping behavior3
Try a new digital shopping method
(eg, ordered groceries via app)
Switch to a different brand than normal
Try a private label/store brand
Switch from brick-and-mortar store to online
Shop from a different retailer/store than normal
Use a new shopping method
(eg, pickup and food delivery subscription)
Shop from a different website than normal
Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store
When buying groceries and essentials, Gen Z and millennials are
far more likely than older consumers to try new shopping behaviors
Generational cut
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
1. Q: In the last 4-6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products, etc.)?
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least one of the other categories mentioned.
Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials in
last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Difference from all consumers,2
percentage points
Gen Z
86
39
33
28
22
23
20
20
20
Millennials
71
44
31
29
15
15
16
14
8
Gen X
65
43
22
23
11
7
7
7
3
Baby boomers
50
36
15
15
6
6
4
4
2
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
25. McKinsey & Company 25
Many consumers have switched to shopping at discounters, turning
away from convenience and specialty store for groceries/essentials
Retailer formats changed to in past 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks
Retail format
Shopping in last 4–6 weeks,1 % of consumers
3
3
60
23
36
15
29
20
38
34
39
51
15
31
25
43
17
4
9
5
Hypermarket
Discounter
Supermarket
Convenience store
Specialty grocery store
Did not shop there Shopped more
Shopped less Shopped same amount
1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you started shopping from a different retailer or store than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. How has your shopping at the following types of
retailers/stores changed?
2. Calculated by subtracting all "shopped less" answers from all "shopped more" answers.
23% of consumers changed their
retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
Net change2
28
−12
−16
−29
−30
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Consumers trying a new retailer for groceries and essentials most
often choose one based on price/promotions and value for money
1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a different retailer/store in the past 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (e.g., toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store?
Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons.
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here by generational cut.
Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials1
% of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks
Between −2 and +2
< −2 > +2
Difference from all
consumers,2
percentage points
23% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
All consumers
38
35
21
21
18
17
14
13
13
12
11
10
8
8
8
7
5
3
Better quality
Cleaner/has better hygiene measures
Better prices/promotions
Better value for money
Products are in stock
More easily accessible from my home
Save cost of gasoline
I can get all the items I need from 1 place
Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine
Less crowded/has shorter lines
Family/friend recommendations
I support their response to the invasion of Ukraine
Shares my values
Supporting local businesses
Offers natural/organic offerings
Has more sustainable/environmentally friendly options
Wanted to treat myself
The company treats its employees well
41
38
28
25
18
15
14
14
14
9
11
13
8
3
4
4
8
5
Millennials
43
37
16
14
19
16
16
10
11
8
11
6
6
8
3
3
8
8
Gen X
33
30
12
30
9
12
12
23
7
16
16
14
9
9
9
5
7
12
Gen Z
31
31
24
15
22
26
15
9
19
17
6
7
11
13
4
2
9
4
Baby
boomers
27. McKinsey & Company 27
When shopping for groceries and other essentials, large
proportions of consumers are trading down
23
31
32
33
37
37
38
40
41
40
53
5
5
5
6
5
6
6
4
5
8
3
72
64
63
62
59
58
56
56
53
52
44
Healthcare, beauty, and baby
Household products
Frozen foods
Bread and bakery
Snacks and confectionary
Dairy and eggs
Non-alcoholic beverages
Fresh fruit and vegetables
Hot drinks
Fresh meat, fish, poultry
Alcohol
No change Switched to higher-priced brand Switched to lower-priced or private-label brand
1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4-6 weeks you tried a different brand than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. Which of the following best describes how/where you switched brands?
2. Calculated by first adding up the answers for "switched to lower-priced or private-label brand" and then subtracting the answers for "switched to higher-priced brand" and "no change."
Brand-switching behavior of consumers1
% of respondents who switched to a different brand for groceries or essentials in last 4–6 weeks
Net trade-
down2
44
28
26
23
17
15
12
12
7
4
−12
47% of consumers changed a
groceries/essentials brand in the last 4-6 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
28. McKinsey & Company 28
For consumers choosing a new groceries/essentials brand, price
and value for money are the key criteria
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy in the last 4-6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (e.g., toiletries, cleaning products, etc.).What were the main reasons that drove this
decision? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons.
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
Between −2 and +2
< −2 > +2
Difference from all consumers,2
percentage points
47% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
Top reasons for choice of new brand for groceries/essentials1
% of respondents who bought a different brand than normal in last 4–6 weeks
All consumers
50
48
18
18
13
11
11
10
9
8
7
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
Natural/organic
Products are in stock
Better price
Wanted to treat myself
Better value for money
Large package sizes
Available where I’m shopping
Better quality
The company treats its employees well
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Wanted variety, change from normal routine
Wanted to try a type of product that I’ve never tried before
More sustainable, better for environment
Supporting local businesses
Better shipping, delivery cost
Cleaner, safer
Shares my values
Their response to invasion of Ukraine
44
46
23
15
19
15
12
12
7
6
9
5
5
9
5
1
9
6
Millennials
58
48
13
22
9
12
8
4
12
8
6
7
5
3
2
3
5
5
Gen X
34
28
13
17
23
9
15
15
21
11
4
11
17
11
13
6
9
4
Gen Z
54
57
22
18
9
9
10
12
2
9
8
6
4
4
2
5
2
1
Baby
boomers2
29. McKinsey & Company 29
Across non-grocery/essentials categories, at least half of consumers
have taken some action if they perceived a price increase
Perception of price
increase and action taken
by consumers by product
category
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5
"Prices increased significantly.“ Includes respondents who indicated price increases (top 2 boxes).
2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you done any of the following when purchasing [product]? Respondents who answered they switched to a different or
lower-priced brand, delayed their purchase, switched to a different store or website, purchased a smaller quantity.
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
No action
Delayed a purchase
Switched to a different brand
Switched to a higher cost brand
Switched to a lower cost brand
Switched to a different store/website
Purchased a larger size/quantity
Purchased a smaller size/quantity
89
64
54
52
51
45
44
42
40
39
36
33
33
Footwear
Home improvement & gardening supplies
Kitchen & dining products
Skincare & make-up
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Pet food & supplies
Accessories
Apparel
Home decoration & furniture
Sports & outdoors equipment & supplies
Fitness & wellness services
Consumer electronics
Jewelry
Consumer-observed price
increases by category1
% of respondents rating 4 or 5
on 5-point scale
Changed behavior by category when price increase perceived2
% of respondents reacting to perceived price increase
24
34
24
36
43
41
47
36
49
50
48
37
25
18
1
21
16
12
20
21
25
22
23
13
20
29
17
16
5
9
11
9
13
11
12
10
15
19
10
4
5
5
3
5
6
8
9
4
5
8
13
5
40
24
18
25
33
18
16
21
28
13
16
18
16
8
12
9
11
7
11
10
13
12
8
13
9
19
24
12
24
28
16
22
19
19
11
18
13
25
24
13
24
6
11
6
2
10
11
14
9
8
6
10
30. McKinsey & Company 30
Reasons for choosing a product/brand in the past 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents rating as 1 or 2 (unimportant) and 5 or 6 (important) on 6-point scale
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product/brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1
"Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important."
2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (ratings 1 and 2) value from the important (ratings 5 and 6) value.
Rational reasons for trying a new brand dominate, especially lower
price and availability
Source: McKinsey & Company Germany Consumer Sentiment Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,028, sampled to match German general population 18+ years
46
32
35
54
30
58
28
24
47
38
24
25
19
“Rational”
Beliefs
Sustainability 11
14
16
16
16
4
5
11
6
9
25
30
32
No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free
Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives
Small or neutral carbon footprint
Sustainably sourced materials
Fair trade practices
Lower price
Available in the store closest to me
Locally sourced/locally owned
Brand that I know and trust
Brand that treats employees well
Brand is actively supporting the humanitarian effort in Ukraine
Brand has stopped doing business in Russia
Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine
Unimportant Important
Net
importance2
34
22
14
12
9
54
49
21
29
0
−5
−13
40
31. McKinsey & Company 31
Reason for trying a new brand in the past 4–6 weeks1
Net importance rating2
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not
important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.”
2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value.
“Rational”
Beliefs
Sustain-
ability
German consumers are among those placing relatively high
importance on sustainability
Europe 5
27
21
11
9
1
54
45
24
43
32
5
1
-8
No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free
Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives
Fair trade practices
Small or neutral carbon footprint
Available in the store closest to me
Sustainably sourced materials
Locally sourced/locally owned
Lower price
Brand that I know and trust
Brand that treats employees well
Brand actively supports humanitarian effort in Ukraine
Brand has stopped doing business in Russia
Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine
France Spain
UK Italy
Germany
34
22
14
12
9
54
49
21
40
29
-5
-13
0
29
16
7
2
-7
40
36
27
33
26
-13
-16
-22
6
14
2
-2
-6
63
47
1
40
27
9
11
-10
32
21
8
12
-4
44
36
31
40
32
5
-2
-3
35
33
22
22
12
66
57
40
60
48
23
17
11
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years