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McKinsey & Company 1
The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had deep human, as well as social and economic,
impact across countries and sectors.
The implications of the invasion of Ukraine are also rapidly evolving and inherently uncertain.
As a result, this document and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts
perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken
by leaders of relevant organizations.
The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as
doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on
sanctions or export control issues.
McKinsey & Company 2
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
The greatest concerns identified by consumers in
Italy are rising prices and the invasion of
Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these
have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern.
Optimism about an economic recovery is at
lower levels than it has been throughout the
COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12%
optimistic)
63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of
the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is
even more likely among those with low incomes
(69%)
Consumers indicate they perceive the highest
price increases for groceries and fuel, products
also associated with a strong increase in spend
Spend on food and on energy, transport, and
fuel has grown considerably and is expected to
rise further
25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z,
changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks,
while 44% changed brands for groceries or
another essential product
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care; the strongest
drivers of these choices are price, value for
money, and availability
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 3
Despite the pandemic’s continuing grip on societies in Europe,
rising prices and invasion of Ukraine have now by far overtaken
COVID-19 as top concerns for consumers
Germany UK Italy
France2 Spain
1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. For France, political insecurity (9%) and immigration (8%) are concerns mentioned by more than 5% of consumers.
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
12
5
7
8
24
44
Europe 5
9
21
11 9 8
7
8
6
11 14
8
6
7
11
7
34
18
15
32
21
40 44
60
32
47
3
2
4
4
3
Rising prices
Invasion of Ukraine
COVID-19 pandemic
Unemployment/job security
Extreme weather events
Other
Top source of concern1
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 4
The COVID-19 pandemic and unemployment are not Italian
consumers’ top concern but still weigh on the minds of many
74
62
48
37
31
17
14
13
3
1
Immigration
Rising prices
COVID-19 pandemic
Invasion of Ukraine
Unemployment/job seurity
Extreme weather events/climate change
Cost/accessibility of healthcare
Political uncertainty
Brexit
Other
1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3.
2. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today?
Top sources of concern today
% of respondents
32
32
11
11
6
3
2
2
1
1
Among top 3 sources of concern1 Top source of concern2
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 5
Rising prices most often concern millennials and those with low or
middle incomes; concern about Ukraine more often affects high-
income consumers and baby boomers
9
6
11
11
32
32
Overall
Top source of concern1
% of respondents
1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
12 8 7
5
6 5
8
8 16
12
11
11
26 31
37
37 36
24
Low income High income
Middle
income
6 9 10 7
6
6 6
6
16 14 11
7
16 10
10
12
30
33
32
31
26 28 31
38
Gen Z Millenials Gen X Baby
boomers
Split by generation
Split by income
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
Other
Rising prices
Invasion of Ukraine
COVID-19 pandemic
Extreme weather events
Unemployment
McKinsey & Company 6
Baby boomers and high-income consumers rank the invasion of
Ukraine as a top three concern about as often as price increases
Top 3 sources of concern1
% of respondents
1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
74
62
48
37
31
17
14
13
3
1
Cost/accessibility of healthcare
Rising prices
Invasion of Ukraine
COVID-19 pandemic
Unemployment/job security
Extreme weather events/climate change
Immigration
Political uncertainty
Brexit
Other
High
income
Middle
income
Low
income Gen Z Millennials Gen X
Baby
boomers
75
55
46
46
31
19
14
12
2
1
76
64
47
34
34
16
13
13
2
2
68
70
52
28
27
16
16
17
5
1
74
53
45
49
48
10
9
9
1
1
72
55
48
46
31
17
11
11
7
1
78
63
44
37
25
21
14
16
2
1
73
71
51
26
31
14
18
14
1
2
Split by generation
Split by income
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 7
Almost two out of three consumers are negative about their own
country’s current state of the economy
55 58 61 63 67
32 29 24 26 22
13 13 15 11 11
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
61
27
13
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Net confidence2 −42 −56
−52
−45 −46
−48
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and
“positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative" answers from all "positive" answers.
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Europe 5
McKinsey & Company 8
High-income consumers are most confident on an economic bounce
after crisis; by age, baby boomers are most pessimistic
63
26
Positive
Negative
11
Overall
Neutral
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents
69 63 52
26 26
25
22
High (>50K)
6
Low (<25K)
11
Middle
(25K–50K)
64 58 59 68
26 28 26
24
13 15
9
Gen Z Baby boomers3
8
Millennials Gen X
By income2
By generation
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive”
as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Income brackets are shown in € for France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK, the same brackets were used with £.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
McKinsey & Company 9
Consumers worried about price increases and unemployment are
the most pessimistic on their own country’s current economy
69
60
52
76
50
22
29
31
18
38
9 12 18
6
12
COVID-19
pandemic
Rising prices Unemployment
Invasion
of Ukraine
Extreme
weather events
Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1
% of respondents by top concerns
Net confidence2 −60 −38
−71
−48 −34
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
63
26
11
Negative
Overall
Positive
Neutral
−52
1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and
“positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative/very negative" answers from all "positive/very positive" answers.
McKinsey & Company 10
Supply-related risks are the most common concerns for consumers
with a negative outlook on the economy
1. Q: You mentioned that you are feeling negatively about [COUNTRY]’s economy in light of the Ukraine invasion. Which of the following topics are you most
uncertain about? Please select up to 3. Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Bars only show reasons with agreement >20%.
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
47
42
39
31
27
26
24
16
12
9
3
0
Impact of influx of refugees
Supply chain shortages
Rising interest rates
Interruption of gasoline supply
Energy shortages
Risk of further escalation of the war
Unemployment rates/job security
Food shortages
Risk of nuclear disaster
Uncertainty on the stock market
Restrictions on international travel
Other
41
50
53
33
19
22
14
23
14
8
2
1
45
44
36
29
22
33
20
17
12
10
3
1
53
40
43
30
19
31
33
12
11
7
3
0
49
32
41
29
37
20
23
15
13
11
3
0
46
44
24
34
39
24
28
11
12
10
2
0
Top 3 reasons for negative view on economy1
% of respondents who perceived the current status of economy and/or the economy's outlook as negative
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Europe 5
McKinsey & Company 11
30 30 32 30 31 31
24
17
25
38
52 55 53 55 54 53
55
49
51
50
18 15 15 15 14 16 21
34
24
12
Mar 2020 Apr 20223
Mar 2022
Feb 2021 Oct 2021
Sept 2020
May 2020 June 2020
Apr 2020 Nov 2020
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Neutral: The economy
will be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression or fall
into lengthy recession
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/22–3/29/2022, n = 5,028 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 5,081 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, UK); 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 5,645; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 5,641; 4/30–5/03/2020, n = 5,631; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 5,623; 4/2–4/5/2020, n =
5,645, 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 5,614; 3/20–3/23/2020, n = 5,035 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Portugal), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Overall pessimism reached unprecedented levels, rising from the
COVID-19 period range of 30–32 to 38 percent in April 2022
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis,1 % of respondents
20202 2021 2022
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top,
middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic, "Neutral", and "Pessimistic." Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020.
3. Question in Apr 2022 was not framed for coronavirus: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022?
McKinsey & Company 12
33 35 35 38 42
52 51 49 50 44
14 14 16 12 14
Pessimism about economic recovery is high across countries and
more than doubled since October 2021
18
−17
25
−23
24
−19
19
−23
13
−19
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale
aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis1
% of respondents
Germany
Apr 12–18, 2022
Change in % pessimistic vs Oct 2021 survey,
percentage points
Change in % optimistic vs Oct 2021 survey,
percentage points
Optimistic: The economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and grow just as strong
as or stronger than before the current crisis
Neutral: The economy will be impacted for
6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or
show slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: The current crisis will have
lasting impact on the economy and show
regression or fall into lengthy recession
Italy
Apr 12–18
UK
Apr 12–18
France
Apr 12–18
Spain
Apr 12–18, 2022
McKinsey & Company 13
High-income consumers are more confident about an economic
bounce after the invasion of Ukraine
38
50
12
Neutral
Overall
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Confidence in own country’s expected economic recovery after current crisis1
% of respondents
42 38 33
46
21
8
50
Low (<25K) High (>50K)
Middle
(25K–50K)
50
12
26 35 38 45
64 47 46
50
18 16
Millennials
Gen Z
10
Gen X Baby boomers
6
By income2
By generation3
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top,
middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic", "Neutral", and "Pessimistic“; Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2. Income brackets shown in € apply to France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK, the same brackets were used with £.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
McKinsey & Company 14
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
The greatest concerns identified by consumers in
Italy are rising prices and the invasion of
Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these
have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern.
Optimism about an economic recovery is at
lower levels than it has been throughout the
COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12%
optimistic)
63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of
the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is
even more likely among those with low incomes
(69%)
Consumers indicate they perceive the highest
price increases for groceries and fuel, products
also associated with a strong increase in spend
Spend on food and on energy, transport, and
fuel has grown considerably and is expected to
rise further
25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z,
changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks,
while 44% changed brands for groceries or
another essential product
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care; the strongest
drivers of these choices are price, value for
money, and availability
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 15
Across the five countries surveyed, the vast majority of respondents
observed price changes
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general change in the prices of any goods you commonly buy?
Inflation, year-over-year,
Mar 2022, %
7.6 5.1 7.0 6.8 9.8
7
93
11
89
12
88
10
90
6
94
Source: OECD (inflation data); McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled
to match European general population 18+ years
9
91
Yes
No
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Europe 5
McKinsey & Company 16
Majorities saw prices increases in every product category, with the
greatest impact in food and household supplies
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general increase in the prices of any goods you commonly buy?
2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, How have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.”
3. Calculated by subtracting all "decreased/significantly decreased" answers from all "increased/significantly increased" answers.
4
5
23
27
31
28
29
30
35
34
33
40
32
36
35
37
39
47
50
50
51
41
42
43
42
40
40
34
35
35
35
32
25
45
20
15
12
18
15
12
12
13
13
15
14
13
12
13
13
1
5
6
5
12
12
13
10
12
14
9
17
14
15
14
21
1
2
Home decoration and furniture
2
1
Fitness and wellness services
2
Accessories
Groceries/food for home
Pet food and supplies
Household supplies 2
1
Personal-care products
Jewelry
Kitchen and dining products
1
Consumer electronics
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Apparel
1
Skin care and makeup
1
1
Home improvement and gardening supplies
2
2
2
Footwear
2
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Increased
Decreased
Stayed the same
Not sure
Increased significantly
Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks
General price change perceived1
% of respondents
Price change perceived by category2
% of respondents who shopped category
10
90
No
Yes
Net change3
91
69
64
62
56
56
55
53
52
51
48
47
46
45
41
35
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 17
Majorities of consumers expect to spend less than usual across
most categories; groceries and gasoline are exceptions
8
18
34
38
40
41
41
41
56
48
31
20
13
34
43
38
37
28
35
16
17
13
12
18
10
13
11
9
12
14
15
12
12
14
11
10
Personal-care products
Restaurant
Footwear
Alcohol
Groceries
Tobacco products
Household supplies
Food takeout and delivery
Quick-service restaurant
Apparel
Sports and outdoors
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Skin care and makeup
Home and furniture
Home improvement, garden
Kitchen and dining
Decrease Stay the same Increase
13
20
12
33
35
46
26
29
33
14
24
37
26
39
44
49
48
43
17
18
10
8
16
13
12
16
11
60
29
17
40
13
15
15
13
16
Entertainment at home
Short-term home rentals
Pet food and supplies
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Pet care services
Out-of-home entertainment
Books/magazines/newspapers
Consumer electronics
Fitness and wellness
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Vehicles
Travel by car
Cruises
Adventures and tours
International flights
Hotel/resort stays
Domestic flights
-1
-25
-19
-33
-13
-12
-22
46
-20
15
-26
-29
-34
-36
-2
5
16
-10
-21
-27
-28
-21
-31
-26
-44
-39
-24
-12
-2
-23
-35
-27
-30
-21
Net change,3
next 4–6 weeks
3 0
-12
-7
-27
-26
-19
-11
-17
-21
30
-4
-19
11
-8
-18
-22
-25
-28 -25
Net change,3
last 4–6 weeks
-44
27
-19
-6
-31
-2
-17
-25
-28
-23
-31
-28
-38
1
-22
-25
-27
-18
Change, last
4–6 weeks2
Net change,3
next 4–6 weeks
Net change,3
last 4–6 weeks
Change, last
4–6 weeks2
1. Q: In the past 4–6 weeks, how has the amount you have spent on these categories changed? Possible answers: “spent less on this category,” “spent the same amount,” “spent more on this category.”
2. Q: Over the next 4–6 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? “Will spend less on this category,” “will spend about the same,” “will spend more on this category.”
3. Net change is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they decreased spend from the % of respondents stating they increased spend in the respective category.
Net change > +15
Net change −15 to +15
Net change < −15
xx xx xx
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
Change1 and net change2 of spend in categories in last or next 4–6 weeks
% of respondents who shopped category
McKinsey & Company 18
As spend on essential products rises, consumers save less and spend
less on nonfood discretionary items—and expect further cuts
1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ “Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine.
2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan
consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change.
3. Calculated by subtracting all "lower/much lower" answers from all "higher/much higher" answer in each column/time frame.
11
19
30
20
41
57
78
21
20 44
39
34
11
60
51
36
20
9
Rent/
mortgage
Energy/
utilities
Transport
and fuel
Food and
essentials
Nonfood
discretionary
Put money
into savings
Net change3
0 −21
16
41 21 −49 1 −19
17
43 22 −36
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
About the same
Higher Lower
12 17
27 20
43
51
75
23
24 42
32
34
13
60
49
37
24
15
Rent/
mortgage
Energy/
utilities
Transport
and fuel
Food and
essentials
Nonfood
discretionary
Put money
into savings
Change in spend in the last 4–6 weeks1 Expected change in spend in the next 4–6 weeks2
Change and expected change of spend in general categories
% of respondents
McKinsey & Company 19
Majorities of consumers report spend increases and expect further
increases in energy, transport and gasoline, and food
1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased,” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.”
"Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine.
2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more,” as
well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change.
3. Calculated by adding the blue highlighted cells, ie, increased past spend or expect to increase future spend, excluding consumers that have decreased or expect to decrease their spend.
Change of spend in general categories in last 4–6 weeks1 and expected
in next 4–6 weeks,2 % of respondents
Calculation example
Observed/expected price increase,³ % 23
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years
Decrease No change Increase
Decrease 4 3 1
No change 4 63 6
Increase 2 7 10
Change of spend in
next 4–6 weeks, %
Change
in spend
in last
4–6
weeks,
%
Germany UK Italy
France Spain
25
66
62
69
34
19
21
55
55
53
25
9
31
76
60
62
26
9
15
62
50
41
23
10
21
53
50
52
25
10
Energy/utilities
Transport and gasoline
Food and essentials
Nonfood discretionary
Put money into savings
Rent/mortgage
Europe 5
23
62
55
55
27
12
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points
Observed/expected price
increase,³ %
McKinsey & Company 20
All age groups expect prolonged and lasting inflation; between 34
and 48 percent plan to reduce or adapt consumption
63
56
48
34
15
I am planning to buy fewer products/services
in the future if prices continue to rise
I am concerned that the prices of everyday
purchases have been increasing
I believe prices will continue to rise
throughout the next 12 months
I have had to scale back my lifestyle
due to an increase in prices
I intend to use more “buy now, pay later”
services in the coming months
64 59 63 65
48 51 55 64
45 47 48 51
34 38 33 34
11 24 16
Statements Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
Generational cut
Agreement with price-related statements1
% of respondents rating agreement at 5 or 6 on 6-point scale
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2
percentage points
1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each. Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree.“
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
All consumers
9
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 21
Consumers across generations increasingly focus on energy
consumption and transport costs to mitigate inflation effects
Change in purchase behavior in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
1. Q: In which other areas of your life, if any, have you changed your shopping behavior in the last 4–6 weeks?
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
Generational cut
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
59 46 51 62
44 33 28 33
26 31 21 20
25 23 15 20
13 13 19 15
8 15 10 18
13 9 10 15
5 10 7 9
9 11 5 5
4 10 4 8
5 7 4 5
8 8 5 2
9 7 3 2
3 13 17 16
All consumers
54
33
24
20
15
14
12
8
7
7
5
5
5
14
I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a car/other vehicle
I have purchased supplies to donate to the Ukraine
humanitarian effort and/or have donated money or time to volunteer
I have become more conscious about my home energy usage
I have stocked up on products (e.g., grocery or household items) that I use
often in the event that there are supply chain shortages
I have changed my mode of transport to use less gasoline/to save money
I have delayed/canceled a pending trip/vacation
I have offered to shelter/sponsor Ukrainian refugees
I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from Russian companies
I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from companies
that have not taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine
I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a new home
I have started/increased my purchase of products from
companies that have taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine
I have sped up my plan to purchase a new home
I have sold/plan to sell my car or other vehicle
None of these
McKinsey & Company 22
Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022
New sources of concern and
tumbling confidence in overall
economy
Sharply rising prices on essentials
with noticeable consequences on
spend
Noticeable activity, demand, and
channel and brand shifts in search
for value for money
1 2 3
How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting?
The greatest concerns identified by consumers in
Italy are rising prices and the invasion of
Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these
have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern.
Optimism about an economic recovery is at
lower levels than it has been throughout the
COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12%
optimistic)
63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of
the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is
even more likely among those with low incomes
(69%)
Consumers indicate they perceive the highest
price increases for groceries and fuel, products
also associated with a strong increase in spend
Spend on food and on energy, transport, and
fuel has grown considerably and is expected to
rise further
25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z,
changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks,
while 44% changed brands for groceries or
another essential product
A trade-down trend is evident in choices of
retailers and brands, especially for food,
household products, and skin care; the strongest
drivers of these choices are price, value for
money, and availability
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 23
v
One-third of consumers purchasing groceries and essentials have
switched to other retailers than normal in the last four to six weeks
70
33
25
21
20
14
13
13
12
Shop from a different retailer/store than normal
Try a private label/store brand
Total: Any new shopping behavior3
Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store
Shop from a different website than normal
Switch to a different brand than normal
New shopping method
Try a new digital shopping method
(eg, ordered groceries via app)
Use a new shopping method
(eg, pickup and food delivery subscription)
Activities in last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Plan to do activities in next 4–6 weeks2
% of respondents who did not do activity in
the last 4–6 weeks
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)?
2. Q: How likely are you to change your shopping behavior in the next 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? Rated from 1 "Not likely at all" to 6 "Extremely likely". "Extremely likely" and
"Likely" answers counted for planning this activity
3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned.
Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials
38
11
10
17
10
8
14
9
9
91% of consumers noticed a price
increase when shopping for groceries
and essentials
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 24
70
33
25
21
20
14
13
13
12
Shop from a different website than normal
Try a private label/store brand
Total: Any new shopping behavior3
Switch to a different brand than normal
Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store
Shop from a different retailer/store than normal
Switched from brick-and-mortar store to online2
Try a new digital shopping method
(eg, ordered groceries via app)
Use a new shopping method
(eg, pickup and food delivery subscription)
Seven in ten consumers shopping for groceries and essentials have
tried a new shopping behavior in the last four to six weeks
Generational cut
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)?
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned.
Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials in
last 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents
Difference from all consumers,2
percentage points
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
85
46
26
25
27
19
18
16
19
82
45
27
26
25
24
19
23
20
69
29
26
20
19
11
10
11
10
57
23
22
16
15
7
10
5
6
McKinsey & Company 25
Many consumers shopping for groceries and essentials have
switched away from convenience stores and toward discounters
Retailer formats changed to in past 4–6 weeks1
% of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks
Retail format
18
4
34
17
25
21
18
24
37
35
37
59
34
34
33
25
20
8
12
7
Convenience store
Specialty grocery store
Hypermarket
Discounter
Supermarket
Did not shop there Shopped less Shopped same amont Shopped more
1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you started shopping from a different retailer or store than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. How has
your shopping at the following types of retailers/stores changed?
2. Calculated by subtracting all "shopped less" answers from all "shopped more" answers.
25% of consumers changed their
retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
Net change2
4
2
−16
−25
−27
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 26
Consumers say that when seeking a new retailer/store for groceries
and essentials, they are most influenced by price and value for price
1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a different retailer/store in the past 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products).What were the
main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons.
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials1
% of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks
Between −2 and +2
< −2 > +2
Difference from all
consumers,2
percentage points
25% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
All consumers
50
38
23
22
17
15
13
12
11
9
9
8
7
7
6
6
5
2
Supporting local businesses
More easily accessible from my home
Better quality
One-stop shop
Better prices/promotions
Better value for money
I wanted to save on the cost of gasoline
Less crowded/has shorter lines
Family/friend recommendations
More sustainable/environmentally friendly
Offers natural/organic offerings
Cleaner/has better hygiene measures
Wanted variety/a change from normal
Shares my values
Wanted to treat myself
Products are in stock
The company treats its employees well
Their response to the invasion of Ukraine
46
33
19
21
17
19
13
16
13
13
7
11
13
13
9
1
6
7
Millennials
50
37
20
24
15
12
13
10
13
9
9
6
6
5
2
1
6
6
Gen X
45
55
19
26
23
6
16
13
10
10
10
10
6
6
3
6
3
10
Gen Z
58
37
32
19
18
18
12
10
5
7
10
5
3
1
5
3
10
3
Baby
boomers
McKinsey & Company 27
Large proportions of consumers shopping for groceries and other
essentials are trading down
24
30
32
39
39
40
40
45
43
40
48
6
7
7
5
8
8
10
7
10
14
8
70
63
61
56
53
52
50
48
47
46
44
Household products
Bread and bakery
Frozen foods
Snacks and confectionary
Hot drinks
Fresh fruit and vegetables
Non-alcoholic beverages
Fresh meat, fish, poultry
Dairy and eggs
Healthcare, beauty, baby
Alcohol
No change Switched to higher-priced brand Switched to private label/lower-priced brand
1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you tried a different brand than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. Which of the following best describes how/where you switched brands?
2. Calculated by first adding up the answers for "switched to lower-priced or private-label brand" and then subtracting the answers for "switched to higher-priced brand" and "no change.“
Brand-switching behavior of consumers1
% of respondents who switched to a different brand for groceries or essentials in last 4–6 weeks
Net trade-down2
39
26
22
13
5
4
0
−3
−6
−7
−12
44% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4-6 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
McKinsey & Company 28
The strongest drivers of decisions to try new brands of groceries
and essentials are prices and value for price
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy in the last 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg,
toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons.
2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut.
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
Top reasons for choice of new brand for groceries/essentials1
% of respondents who bought a different brand than normal in last 4–6 weeks
Between −2 and +2
< −2 > +2
Difference from all consumers2,
percentage points
44% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks
All consumers
51
46
15
15
13
13
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
5
5
4
3
3
Cleaner/safer
Better prices/promotions
Supporting local businesses
Better value for money
The company treats its employees well
Better quality
More sustainable/environmentally friendly
Wanted to try new type of product
Wanted to try a new brand I found
Larger package sizes
Is natural/organic
Shares my values
Available where I’m shopping
Better shipping/delivery cost
Products are in stock
Wanted variety/a change from normal
Their response to the invasion of Ukraine
Wanted to treat myself
43
37
21
17
14
8
19
16
17
11
9
10
7
10
6
2
4
3
Millennials
56
62
8
12
11
14
6
6
6
7
11
9
8
4
2
4
5
1
Gen X
44
38
20
20
20
10
18
18
12
12
8
8
12
2
4
6
4
8
Gen Z
61
46
13
11
10
20
6
9
8
13
8
4
6
3
3
1
8
3
Baby
boomers2
McKinsey & Company 29
Consumer countermeasures seem to correlate poorly with the
intensity of price increases by product category
Perception of price
increase and action
taken by consumers in
category
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.“
2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you done any of the following when purchasing [product]? Includes respondents who answered they switched to a different or lower-priced brand, delayed their purchase, switched to a different store or website,
purchased a smaller quantity.
Consumer-observed price
increase1
% of respondents rating price
change 4 or 5 on 5-point scale
Behavior change when price increase perceived2
% of respondents reacting to perceived price increase
No action
Delayed a purchase
Switched to a different brand
Switched to a higher-priced brand
Switched to a lower-priced brand
Switched to a different store/website
Purchased a larger size/quantity
Purchased a smaller size/quantity
Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
70
58
57
56
54
53
52
49
49
48
47
45
37
Footwear
Home improvement & gardening supplies
Pet food & supplies
Kitchen & dining products
Consumer electronics
Apparel
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Fitness & wellness services
Skincare & make-up
Home decoration & furniture
Accessories
Sports & outdoors equipment & supplies
Jewelry
31
23
30
36
33
41
29
24
27
40
31
32
32
16
24
20
18
13
17
18
25
13
11
19
20
18
13
16
11
9
14
13
16
20
10
16
21
14
14
1
3
3
5
1
3
8
10
3
7
3
2
4
22
25
21
22
14
17
26
23
29
22
21
23
23
3
15
14
12
12
9
10
15
6
11
12
14
8
33
32
22
26
31
21
33
25
25
19
32
31
32
7
6
2
11
4
7
10
17
7
4
5
9
2
McKinsey & Company 30
Reason for trying a new brand in the past 4–6 weeks1
Net importance rating2
1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not
important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.”
2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value.
“Rational”
Beliefs
Sustain-
ability
Among the Europe 5 consumers, those in Italy, along with Germany
and Spain, place a relative high emphasis on sustainability
Europe 5
27
21
11
9
1
54
45
24
43
32
5
1
-8
No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free
Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives
Small or neutral carbon footprint
Locally sourced/locally owned
Available in the store closest to me
Sustainably sourced materials
Lower price
Fair trade practices
Brand that I know and trust
Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine
Brand that treats employees well
Brand actively supports humanitarian effort in Ukraine
Brand has stopped doing business in Russia
France Spain
UK Italy
Germany
34
22
14
12
9
54
49
21
40
29
-5
-13
0
29
16
7
2
-7
40
36
27
33
26
-13
-16
-22
6
14
2
-2
-6
63
47
1
40
27
9
11
-10
32
21
8
12
-4
44
36
31
40
32
5
-2
-3
35
33
22
22
12
66
57
40
60
48
23
17
11
Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years

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McKinsey European consumer sentiment survey: How current events are shaping Italian consumer behavior

  • 1. McKinsey & Company 1 The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion of Ukraine are also rapidly evolving and inherently uncertain. As a result, this document and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The greatest concerns identified by consumers in Italy are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern. Optimism about an economic recovery is at lower levels than it has been throughout the COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12% optimistic) 63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is even more likely among those with low incomes (69%) Consumers indicate they perceive the highest price increases for groceries and fuel, products also associated with a strong increase in spend Spend on food and on energy, transport, and fuel has grown considerably and is expected to rise further 25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z, changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks, while 44% changed brands for groceries or another essential product A trade-down trend is evident in choices of retailers and brands, especially for food, household products, and skin care; the strongest drivers of these choices are price, value for money, and availability Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Despite the pandemic’s continuing grip on societies in Europe, rising prices and invasion of Ukraine have now by far overtaken COVID-19 as top concerns for consumers Germany UK Italy France2 Spain 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. For France, political insecurity (9%) and immigration (8%) are concerns mentioned by more than 5% of consumers. Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 12 5 7 8 24 44 Europe 5 9 21 11 9 8 7 8 6 11 14 8 6 7 11 7 34 18 15 32 21 40 44 60 32 47 3 2 4 4 3 Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events Other Top source of concern1 % of respondents
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 The COVID-19 pandemic and unemployment are not Italian consumers’ top concern but still weigh on the minds of many 74 62 48 37 31 17 14 13 3 1 Immigration Rising prices COVID-19 pandemic Invasion of Ukraine Unemployment/job seurity Extreme weather events/climate change Cost/accessibility of healthcare Political uncertainty Brexit Other 1. Q: What are the greatest source(s) of concern for you right now? Please select the top 3. 2. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Top sources of concern today % of respondents 32 32 11 11 6 3 2 2 1 1 Among top 3 sources of concern1 Top source of concern2 Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Rising prices most often concern millennials and those with low or middle incomes; concern about Ukraine more often affects high- income consumers and baby boomers 9 6 11 11 32 32 Overall Top source of concern1 % of respondents 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 12 8 7 5 6 5 8 8 16 12 11 11 26 31 37 37 36 24 Low income High income Middle income 6 9 10 7 6 6 6 6 16 14 11 7 16 10 10 12 30 33 32 31 26 28 31 38 Gen Z Millenials Gen X Baby boomers Split by generation Split by income Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Other Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Extreme weather events Unemployment
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Baby boomers and high-income consumers rank the invasion of Ukraine as a top three concern about as often as price increases Top 3 sources of concern1 % of respondents 1. Q: Which of the following is your top concern today? Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 74 62 48 37 31 17 14 13 3 1 Cost/accessibility of healthcare Rising prices Invasion of Ukraine COVID-19 pandemic Unemployment/job security Extreme weather events/climate change Immigration Political uncertainty Brexit Other High income Middle income Low income Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers 75 55 46 46 31 19 14 12 2 1 76 64 47 34 34 16 13 13 2 2 68 70 52 28 27 16 16 17 5 1 74 53 45 49 48 10 9 9 1 1 72 55 48 46 31 17 11 11 7 1 78 63 44 37 25 21 14 16 2 1 73 71 51 26 31 14 18 14 1 2 Split by generation Split by income Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Almost two out of three consumers are negative about their own country’s current state of the economy 55 58 61 63 67 32 29 24 26 22 13 13 15 11 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 61 27 13 Positive Neutral Negative Net confidence2 −42 −56 −52 −45 −46 −48 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative" answers from all "positive" answers. Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents Germany UK Italy France Spain Europe 5
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 High-income consumers are most confident on an economic bounce after crisis; by age, baby boomers are most pessimistic 63 26 Positive Negative 11 Overall Neutral Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents 69 63 52 26 26 25 22 High (>50K) 6 Low (<25K) 11 Middle (25K–50K) 64 58 59 68 26 28 26 24 13 15 9 Gen Z Baby boomers3 8 Millennials Gen X By income2 By generation Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Income brackets are shown in € for France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK, the same brackets were used with £. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Consumers worried about price increases and unemployment are the most pessimistic on their own country’s current economy 69 60 52 76 50 22 29 31 18 38 9 12 18 6 12 COVID-19 pandemic Rising prices Unemployment Invasion of Ukraine Extreme weather events Confidence in own country’s current state of the economy1 % of respondents by top concerns Net confidence2 −60 −38 −71 −48 −34 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 63 26 11 Negative Overall Positive Neutral −52 1. Q: How are you feeling about [COUNTRY]'s economy today? Rated from 1 “very positive” to 5 “very negative.” For visualization, we merged the categories “very positive” and “positive” as well as “very negative” and ”negative.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Calculated by subtracting all "negative/very negative" answers from all "positive/very positive" answers.
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Supply-related risks are the most common concerns for consumers with a negative outlook on the economy 1. Q: You mentioned that you are feeling negatively about [COUNTRY]’s economy in light of the Ukraine invasion. Which of the following topics are you most uncertain about? Please select up to 3. Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Bars only show reasons with agreement >20%. Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 47 42 39 31 27 26 24 16 12 9 3 0 Impact of influx of refugees Supply chain shortages Rising interest rates Interruption of gasoline supply Energy shortages Risk of further escalation of the war Unemployment rates/job security Food shortages Risk of nuclear disaster Uncertainty on the stock market Restrictions on international travel Other 41 50 53 33 19 22 14 23 14 8 2 1 45 44 36 29 22 33 20 17 12 10 3 1 53 40 43 30 19 31 33 12 11 7 3 0 49 32 41 29 37 20 23 15 13 11 3 0 46 44 24 34 39 24 28 11 12 10 2 0 Top 3 reasons for negative view on economy1 % of respondents who perceived the current status of economy and/or the economy's outlook as negative Germany UK Italy France Spain Europe 5
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 30 30 32 30 31 31 24 17 25 38 52 55 53 55 54 53 55 49 51 50 18 15 15 15 14 16 21 34 24 12 Mar 2020 Apr 20223 Mar 2022 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Sept 2020 May 2020 June 2020 Apr 2020 Nov 2020 Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/22–3/29/2022, n = 5,028 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 5,081 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 2/23–2/27/2021, n = 5,139 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 5,232; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 5,338 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK); 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 5,645; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 5,641; 4/30–5/03/2020, n = 5,631; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 5,623; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 5,645, 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 5,614; 3/20–3/23/2020, n = 5,035 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK, Portugal), sampled to match European general population 18+ years Overall pessimism reached unprecedented levels, rising from the COVID-19 period range of 30–32 to 38 percent in April 2022 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis,1 % of respondents 20202 2021 2022 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic, "Neutral", and "Pessimistic." Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Average of biweekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020. 3. Question in Apr 2022 was not framed for coronavirus: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022?
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 33 35 35 38 42 52 51 49 50 44 14 14 16 12 14 Pessimism about economic recovery is high across countries and more than doubled since October 2021 18 −17 25 −23 24 −19 19 −23 13 −19 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic," “Neutral," and "Pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents Germany Apr 12–18, 2022 Change in % pessimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Change in % optimistic vs Oct 2021 survey, percentage points Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before the current crisis Neutral: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: The current crisis will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression or fall into lengthy recession Italy Apr 12–18 UK Apr 12–18 France Apr 12–18 Spain Apr 12–18, 2022
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 High-income consumers are more confident about an economic bounce after the invasion of Ukraine 38 50 12 Neutral Overall Optimistic Pessimistic Confidence in own country’s expected economic recovery after current crisis1 % of respondents 42 38 33 46 21 8 50 Low (<25K) High (>50K) Middle (25K–50K) 50 12 26 35 38 45 64 47 46 50 18 16 Millennials Gen Z 10 Gen X Baby boomers 6 By income2 By generation3 Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding the potential economic impact related to the invasion of Ukraine that began in Feb 2022? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Top, middle, and bottom 2 boxes of scale aggregated to "Optimistic", "Neutral", and "Pessimistic“; Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. 2. Income brackets shown in € apply to France, Germany, Italy, Spain; for UK, the same brackets were used with £. 3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The greatest concerns identified by consumers in Italy are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern. Optimism about an economic recovery is at lower levels than it has been throughout the COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12% optimistic) 63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is even more likely among those with low incomes (69%) Consumers indicate they perceive the highest price increases for groceries and fuel, products also associated with a strong increase in spend Spend on food and on energy, transport, and fuel has grown considerably and is expected to rise further 25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z, changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks, while 44% changed brands for groceries or another essential product A trade-down trend is evident in choices of retailers and brands, especially for food, household products, and skin care; the strongest drivers of these choices are price, value for money, and availability Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Across the five countries surveyed, the vast majority of respondents observed price changes 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general change in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? Inflation, year-over-year, Mar 2022, % 7.6 5.1 7.0 6.8 9.8 7 93 11 89 12 88 10 90 6 94 Source: OECD (inflation data); McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years 9 91 Yes No Germany UK Italy France Spain Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Europe 5
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Majorities saw prices increases in every product category, with the greatest impact in food and household supplies 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you seen a general increase in the prices of any goods you commonly buy? 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, How have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.” 3. Calculated by subtracting all "decreased/significantly decreased" answers from all "increased/significantly increased" answers. 4 5 23 27 31 28 29 30 35 34 33 40 32 36 35 37 39 47 50 50 51 41 42 43 42 40 40 34 35 35 35 32 25 45 20 15 12 18 15 12 12 13 13 15 14 13 12 13 13 1 5 6 5 12 12 13 10 12 14 9 17 14 15 14 21 1 2 Home decoration and furniture 2 1 Fitness and wellness services 2 Accessories Groceries/food for home Pet food and supplies Household supplies 2 1 Personal-care products Jewelry Kitchen and dining products 1 Consumer electronics Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Apparel 1 Skin care and makeup 1 1 Home improvement and gardening supplies 2 2 2 Footwear 2 Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies Increased Decreased Stayed the same Not sure Increased significantly Price changes perceived in last 4–6 weeks General price change perceived1 % of respondents Price change perceived by category2 % of respondents who shopped category 10 90 No Yes Net change3 91 69 64 62 56 56 55 53 52 51 48 47 46 45 41 35 Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Majorities of consumers expect to spend less than usual across most categories; groceries and gasoline are exceptions 8 18 34 38 40 41 41 41 56 48 31 20 13 34 43 38 37 28 35 16 17 13 12 18 10 13 11 9 12 14 15 12 12 14 11 10 Personal-care products Restaurant Footwear Alcohol Groceries Tobacco products Household supplies Food takeout and delivery Quick-service restaurant Apparel Sports and outdoors Jewelry Accessories Toys and baby supplies Skin care and makeup Home and furniture Home improvement, garden Kitchen and dining Decrease Stay the same Increase 13 20 12 33 35 46 26 29 33 14 24 37 26 39 44 49 48 43 17 18 10 8 16 13 12 16 11 60 29 17 40 13 15 15 13 16 Entertainment at home Short-term home rentals Pet food and supplies Vitamins and OTC medicine Pet care services Out-of-home entertainment Books/magazines/newspapers Consumer electronics Fitness and wellness Personal-care services Gasoline Vehicles Travel by car Cruises Adventures and tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Domestic flights -1 -25 -19 -33 -13 -12 -22 46 -20 15 -26 -29 -34 -36 -2 5 16 -10 -21 -27 -28 -21 -31 -26 -44 -39 -24 -12 -2 -23 -35 -27 -30 -21 Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks 3 0 -12 -7 -27 -26 -19 -11 -17 -21 30 -4 -19 11 -8 -18 -22 -25 -28 -25 Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks -44 27 -19 -6 -31 -2 -17 -25 -28 -23 -31 -28 -38 1 -22 -25 -27 -18 Change, last 4–6 weeks2 Net change,3 next 4–6 weeks Net change,3 last 4–6 weeks Change, last 4–6 weeks2 1. Q: In the past 4–6 weeks, how has the amount you have spent on these categories changed? Possible answers: “spent less on this category,” “spent the same amount,” “spent more on this category.” 2. Q: Over the next 4–6 weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? “Will spend less on this category,” “will spend about the same,” “will spend more on this category.” 3. Net change is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they decreased spend from the % of respondents stating they increased spend in the respective category. Net change > +15 Net change −15 to +15 Net change < −15 xx xx xx Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Change1 and net change2 of spend in categories in last or next 4–6 weeks % of respondents who shopped category
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 As spend on essential products rises, consumers save less and spend less on nonfood discretionary items—and expect further cuts 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ “Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by subtracting all "lower/much lower" answers from all "higher/much higher" answer in each column/time frame. 11 19 30 20 41 57 78 21 20 44 39 34 11 60 51 36 20 9 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and fuel Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Net change3 0 −21 16 41 21 −49 1 −19 17 43 22 −36 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years About the same Higher Lower 12 17 27 20 43 51 75 23 24 42 32 34 13 60 49 37 24 15 Rent/ mortgage Energy/ utilities Transport and fuel Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Change in spend in the last 4–6 weeks1 Expected change in spend in the next 4–6 weeks2 Change and expected change of spend in general categories % of respondents
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Majorities of consumers report spend increases and expect further increases in energy, transport and gasoline, and food 1. Q: How have your household finances been affected over the past 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Reduced a lot" to 5 "Increased a lot.“ For visualization, we merged “increased a lot” and “increased,” as well as “reduced a lot” and “reduced.” "Last 4–6 weeks" refers to the change in behavior vs before the invasion of Ukraine. 2. Q: How do you expect your spend on the following categories to change in the next 4–6 weeks? Rated from 1 "Will spend significantly less" to 5 "Will spend significantly more.“ For visualization, we merged “significantly more” and “more,” as well as “significantly less” and “less.” "Next 4–6 weeks" refers to the plan consumers make today, so this change is incremental to past change. 3. Calculated by adding the blue highlighted cells, ie, increased past spend or expect to increase future spend, excluding consumers that have decreased or expect to decrease their spend. Change of spend in general categories in last 4–6 weeks1 and expected in next 4–6 weeks,2 % of respondents Calculation example Observed/expected price increase,³ % 23 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years Decrease No change Increase Decrease 4 3 1 No change 4 63 6 Increase 2 7 10 Change of spend in next 4–6 weeks, % Change in spend in last 4–6 weeks, % Germany UK Italy France Spain 25 66 62 69 34 19 21 55 55 53 25 9 31 76 60 62 26 9 15 62 50 41 23 10 21 53 50 52 25 10 Energy/utilities Transport and gasoline Food and essentials Nonfood discretionary Put money into savings Rent/mortgage Europe 5 23 62 55 55 27 12 Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Observed/expected price increase,³ %
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 All age groups expect prolonged and lasting inflation; between 34 and 48 percent plan to reduce or adapt consumption 63 56 48 34 15 I am planning to buy fewer products/services in the future if prices continue to rise I am concerned that the prices of everyday purchases have been increasing I believe prices will continue to rise throughout the next 12 months I have had to scale back my lifestyle due to an increase in prices I intend to use more “buy now, pay later” services in the coming months 64 59 63 65 48 51 55 64 45 47 48 51 34 38 33 34 11 24 16 Statements Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 Generational cut Agreement with price-related statements1 % of respondents rating agreement at 5 or 6 on 6-point scale Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 1. Q: Please read the following statements and indicate your level of agreement with each. Rated from 1 "Strongly disagree" to 6 "Strongly agree.“ 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. All consumers 9 Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Consumers across generations increasingly focus on energy consumption and transport costs to mitigate inflation effects Change in purchase behavior in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents 1. Q: In which other areas of your life, if any, have you changed your shopping behavior in the last 4–6 weeks? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Generational cut Millennials Gen X Gen Z Baby boomers2 59 46 51 62 44 33 28 33 26 31 21 20 25 23 15 20 13 13 19 15 8 15 10 18 13 9 10 15 5 10 7 9 9 11 5 5 4 10 4 8 5 7 4 5 8 8 5 2 9 7 3 2 3 13 17 16 All consumers 54 33 24 20 15 14 12 8 7 7 5 5 5 14 I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a car/other vehicle I have purchased supplies to donate to the Ukraine humanitarian effort and/or have donated money or time to volunteer I have become more conscious about my home energy usage I have stocked up on products (e.g., grocery or household items) that I use often in the event that there are supply chain shortages I have changed my mode of transport to use less gasoline/to save money I have delayed/canceled a pending trip/vacation I have offered to shelter/sponsor Ukrainian refugees I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from Russian companies I have reduced/stopped purchasing products from companies that have not taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have delayed/canceled a planned purchase of a new home I have started/increased my purchase of products from companies that have taken a stance on the invasion of Ukraine I have sped up my plan to purchase a new home I have sold/plan to sell my car or other vehicle None of these
  • 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Three emerging consumer themes in April 2022 New sources of concern and tumbling confidence in overall economy Sharply rising prices on essentials with noticeable consequences on spend Noticeable activity, demand, and channel and brand shifts in search for value for money 1 2 3 How do consumers feel? What do consumer observe? How are consumers reacting? The greatest concerns identified by consumers in Italy are rising prices and the invasion of Ukraine. With each concern cited by 32%, these have overtaken COVID-19 as a top concern. Optimism about an economic recovery is at lower levels than it has been throughout the COVID-19 pandemic (38% pessimistic versus 12% optimistic) 63% of consumers have a pessimistic view of the Italy’s current economy, an opinion that is even more likely among those with low incomes (69%) Consumers indicate they perceive the highest price increases for groceries and fuel, products also associated with a strong increase in spend Spend on food and on energy, transport, and fuel has grown considerably and is expected to rise further 25% of consumers, including 46% of Gen Z, changed their retailer in the last four to six weeks, while 44% changed brands for groceries or another essential product A trade-down trend is evident in choices of retailers and brands, especially for food, household products, and skin care; the strongest drivers of these choices are price, value for money, and availability Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23 v One-third of consumers purchasing groceries and essentials have switched to other retailers than normal in the last four to six weeks 70 33 25 21 20 14 13 13 12 Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Try a private label/store brand Total: Any new shopping behavior3 Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Shop from a different website than normal Switch to a different brand than normal New shopping method Try a new digital shopping method (eg, ordered groceries via app) Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup and food delivery subscription) Activities in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Plan to do activities in next 4–6 weeks2 % of respondents who did not do activity in the last 4–6 weeks 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Q: How likely are you to change your shopping behavior in the next 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? Rated from 1 "Not likely at all" to 6 "Extremely likely". "Extremely likely" and "Likely" answers counted for planning this activity 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned. Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials 38 11 10 17 10 8 14 9 9 91% of consumers noticed a price increase when shopping for groceries and essentials Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 70 33 25 21 20 14 13 13 12 Shop from a different website than normal Try a private label/store brand Total: Any new shopping behavior3 Switch to a different brand than normal Switch from online to a brick-and-mortar store Shop from a different retailer/store than normal Switched from brick-and-mortar store to online2 Try a new digital shopping method (eg, ordered groceries via app) Use a new shopping method (eg, pickup and food delivery subscription) Seven in ten consumers shopping for groceries and essentials have tried a new shopping behavior in the last four to six weeks Generational cut All consumers Between −3 and +3 < −3 > +3 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, which of the following have you done when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products)? 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. 3. Any new shopping behavior applies if a respondent has chosen at least 1 of the other categories mentioned. Activities when shopping for groceries/essentials in last 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 85 46 26 25 27 19 18 16 19 82 45 27 26 25 24 19 23 20 69 29 26 20 19 11 10 11 10 57 23 22 16 15 7 10 5 6
  • 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Many consumers shopping for groceries and essentials have switched away from convenience stores and toward discounters Retailer formats changed to in past 4–6 weeks1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks Retail format 18 4 34 17 25 21 18 24 37 35 37 59 34 34 33 25 20 8 12 7 Convenience store Specialty grocery store Hypermarket Discounter Supermarket Did not shop there Shopped less Shopped same amont Shopped more 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you started shopping from a different retailer or store than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. How has your shopping at the following types of retailers/stores changed? 2. Calculated by subtracting all "shopped less" answers from all "shopped more" answers. 25% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks Net change2 4 2 −16 −25 −27 Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Consumers say that when seeking a new retailer/store for groceries and essentials, they are most influenced by price and value for price 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a different retailer/store in the past 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. Top reasons for choice of new retailer/store for groceries/essentials1 % of respondents who shopped from a different retailer/store than normal in last 4–6 weeks Between −2 and +2 < −2 > +2 Difference from all consumers,2 percentage points 25% of consumers changed their retailer/store in the last 4–6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years All consumers 50 38 23 22 17 15 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 2 Supporting local businesses More easily accessible from my home Better quality One-stop shop Better prices/promotions Better value for money I wanted to save on the cost of gasoline Less crowded/has shorter lines Family/friend recommendations More sustainable/environmentally friendly Offers natural/organic offerings Cleaner/has better hygiene measures Wanted variety/a change from normal Shares my values Wanted to treat myself Products are in stock The company treats its employees well Their response to the invasion of Ukraine 46 33 19 21 17 19 13 16 13 13 7 11 13 13 9 1 6 7 Millennials 50 37 20 24 15 12 13 10 13 9 9 6 6 5 2 1 6 6 Gen X 45 55 19 26 23 6 16 13 10 10 10 10 6 6 3 6 3 10 Gen Z 58 37 32 19 18 18 12 10 5 7 10 5 3 1 5 3 10 3 Baby boomers
  • 27. McKinsey & Company 27 Large proportions of consumers shopping for groceries and other essentials are trading down 24 30 32 39 39 40 40 45 43 40 48 6 7 7 5 8 8 10 7 10 14 8 70 63 61 56 53 52 50 48 47 46 44 Household products Bread and bakery Frozen foods Snacks and confectionary Hot drinks Fresh fruit and vegetables Non-alcoholic beverages Fresh meat, fish, poultry Dairy and eggs Healthcare, beauty, baby Alcohol No change Switched to higher-priced brand Switched to private label/lower-priced brand 1. Q: You mentioned that in the last 4–6 weeks you tried a different brand than you normally would when purchasing groceries and other essentials. Which of the following best describes how/where you switched brands? 2. Calculated by first adding up the answers for "switched to lower-priced or private-label brand" and then subtracting the answers for "switched to higher-priced brand" and "no change.“ Brand-switching behavior of consumers1 % of respondents who switched to a different brand for groceries or essentials in last 4–6 weeks Net trade-down2 39 26 22 13 5 4 0 −3 −6 −7 −12 44% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4-6 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years
  • 28. McKinsey & Company 28 The strongest drivers of decisions to try new brands of groceries and essentials are prices and value for price 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy in the last 4–6 weeks when purchasing groceries and other essentials (eg, toiletries, cleaning products).What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Respondents could choose up to 3 reasons. 2. Calculated by subtracting the answers of all consumers from those in a subgroup—here generational cut. Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years Top reasons for choice of new brand for groceries/essentials1 % of respondents who bought a different brand than normal in last 4–6 weeks Between −2 and +2 < −2 > +2 Difference from all consumers2, percentage points 44% of consumers changed a groceries/essentials brand in the last 4–6 weeks All consumers 51 46 15 15 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 5 5 4 3 3 Cleaner/safer Better prices/promotions Supporting local businesses Better value for money The company treats its employees well Better quality More sustainable/environmentally friendly Wanted to try new type of product Wanted to try a new brand I found Larger package sizes Is natural/organic Shares my values Available where I’m shopping Better shipping/delivery cost Products are in stock Wanted variety/a change from normal Their response to the invasion of Ukraine Wanted to treat myself 43 37 21 17 14 8 19 16 17 11 9 10 7 10 6 2 4 3 Millennials 56 62 8 12 11 14 6 6 6 7 11 9 8 4 2 4 5 1 Gen X 44 38 20 20 20 10 18 18 12 12 8 8 12 2 4 6 4 8 Gen Z 61 46 13 11 10 20 6 9 8 13 8 4 6 3 3 1 8 3 Baby boomers2
  • 29. McKinsey & Company 29 Consumer countermeasures seem to correlate poorly with the intensity of price increases by product category Perception of price increase and action taken by consumers in category 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, how have you observed prices changing across the following categories? Rated from 1 "Prices decreased significantly" to 5 "Prices increased significantly.“ 2. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, have you done any of the following when purchasing [product]? Includes respondents who answered they switched to a different or lower-priced brand, delayed their purchase, switched to a different store or website, purchased a smaller quantity. Consumer-observed price increase1 % of respondents rating price change 4 or 5 on 5-point scale Behavior change when price increase perceived2 % of respondents reacting to perceived price increase No action Delayed a purchase Switched to a different brand Switched to a higher-priced brand Switched to a lower-priced brand Switched to a different store/website Purchased a larger size/quantity Purchased a smaller size/quantity Source: McKinsey & Company Italy Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 1,005, sampled to match Italy general population 18+ years 70 58 57 56 54 53 52 49 49 48 47 45 37 Footwear Home improvement & gardening supplies Pet food & supplies Kitchen & dining products Consumer electronics Apparel Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine Fitness & wellness services Skincare & make-up Home decoration & furniture Accessories Sports & outdoors equipment & supplies Jewelry 31 23 30 36 33 41 29 24 27 40 31 32 32 16 24 20 18 13 17 18 25 13 11 19 20 18 13 16 11 9 14 13 16 20 10 16 21 14 14 1 3 3 5 1 3 8 10 3 7 3 2 4 22 25 21 22 14 17 26 23 29 22 21 23 23 3 15 14 12 12 9 10 15 6 11 12 14 8 33 32 22 26 31 21 33 25 25 19 32 31 32 7 6 2 11 4 7 10 17 7 4 5 9 2
  • 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Reason for trying a new brand in the past 4–6 weeks1 Net importance rating2 1. Q: In the last 4–6 weeks, when choosing a product or brand to purchase, how important to your purchase decision were the following factors that may be attributed to the product or brand? Rated from 1 "Not important at all" to 6 "Extremely important.” 2. Calculated by subtracting the unimportant (rating of 1 or 2) value from the important (rating of 5 or 6) value. “Rational” Beliefs Sustain- ability Among the Europe 5 consumers, those in Italy, along with Germany and Spain, place a relative high emphasis on sustainability Europe 5 27 21 11 9 1 54 45 24 43 32 5 1 -8 No artificial ingredients/natural/GMO free Recyclable products, packaging, or initiatives Small or neutral carbon footprint Locally sourced/locally owned Available in the store closest to me Sustainably sourced materials Lower price Fair trade practices Brand that I know and trust Brand has made public statements in support of Ukraine Brand that treats employees well Brand actively supports humanitarian effort in Ukraine Brand has stopped doing business in Russia France Spain UK Italy Germany 34 22 14 12 9 54 49 21 40 29 -5 -13 0 29 16 7 2 -7 40 36 27 33 26 -13 -16 -22 6 14 2 -2 -6 63 47 1 40 27 9 11 -10 32 21 8 12 -4 44 36 31 40 32 5 -2 -3 35 33 22 22 12 66 57 40 60 48 23 17 11 Source: McKinsey & Company Europe Consumer Pulse Survey, 4/12–4/18/2022, n = 5,075 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), sampled to match European general population 18+ years

Editor's Notes

  1. Custom Cut – Savanta / Chris