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JUNE 3, 2020
Worldwide Health Care Alumni Webinar
COVID-19 Therapies
and Vaccines
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
1
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Compliance
Statement
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information received, but may not reveal the identity or the
affiliation of the other participants
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sensitive information. Competitively sensitive information includes
but is not limited to information:
i. regarding recent, current or future pricing strategies;
ii. that affects price such as specific discounts, costs or profit
margins;
iii. regarding capacity or output.
iv. regarding allocating customers or geographic areas.
v. regarding boycotting third parties or discriminating against or
excluding other competitors, suppliers or customers.
vi. regarding their market positions or individual plans, including
client or supplier relationships, costs, production levels, R&D
etc.
By remaining connected to this call, you agree with the above
2
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
COVID-19 therapy and vaccine team on today's webinar
Managing Director &
Senior Partner
Barry Rosenberg, MD
Managing Director &
Partner
Josh Kellar, PhD
Managing Director &
Partner
Emily Serazin
Principal
Ciarán Lawlor, PhD
Chicago ChicagoWashington D.C. Boston
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
3
Agenda
State of the science
Preparing to scale and deliver
Q&A
4
State of the science
5
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Critical to have a
variety of
therapeutic
modalities and
vaccine approaches
in development for
several reasons:
Only a small % of assets will gain regulatory approval
Different therapies / vaccines will be suitable for different
populations
Supply chain limitations mean that no single asset can be
produced quantities to meet demand
For therapies: potential that combination treatment becomes
standard-of-care
6
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Therapies: three main modalities under development
Antivirals Antibodies Immunomodulators
Description
• Prevent viral entry into
cells or inhibit viral
replication
• Create passive immunity by
neutralizing viral particles
• Ameliorate damage caused
by hyperimmune response
to infection
Current status
• Modest efficacy shown for
Remdesivir
• Lopinavir-ritonavir in WHO
Solidarity trial
• Numerous trials in progress
• Initial lead-candidate data
expected in Q3
• Preliminary results show
mortality reduction
• Potential wide availability
in Q3, pending Ph 3 results
Example
companies
(not-exhaustive)
7
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Vaccines: four main platforms under development
Nucleic acid Protein subunit Virus Viral vector
Description
• Genetic info. for cells
to make "safe" viral
proteins
• Immune-stimulating
component of the virus
• Inactivated or
weakened form of the
virus
• Replicating and non-
replicating approaches
Current status
• Moderna in Ph 2
• Other companies in Ph
1/2 & preclinical
phases
• Novavax in Ph 1/2
• Other companies in
preclinical phases
• Sinopharm & Sinovac
inactivated candidates
in Ph 1/2
• Other companies in
preclinical phases
• Oxford/AstraZeneca
candidate in Ph 2b/3
• CanSino candidate in
Ph2
• Numerous other
companies in
preclinical phases
Example
companies
(not-exhaustive)
8
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q4 2020 2021+
Remdesivir Gilead and NIH launch
multi-center Ph 3
trials
Gilead provides
compassionate use
access
Prelim results from
China site indicates no
clinical benefit
Gilead and NIH Ph 3
studies achieve
primary endpoint
Modest benefit of 5-
day course shown in
moderate patients
Chloroquine/
Hydroxy-
chloroquine
French study shows
reduction in viral
loads
Retrospective study
shows no clinical
benefit
NIH ORCHID and
Oxford trials launch in
April 2020
Inc. mortality per
Lancet study – drugs
pulled from WHO trial
Preliminary ORCHID
results expected in
Fall 2020
Wide
availability
Interim Oxford study results are
expected in 2021
Ritonavir-
lopinavir RCT in China failed to
show clinical benefit
Drug combo included
WHO SOLIDARITY Trial
Neutralizing
antibodies
Trials launched;
multiple companies
pushing development
Eli Lily launches Ph 1
trial of first-ever
COVID-19-specific tx
Initial lead-candidate
data expected from
multiple trials
Convalescent
plasma FDA allows emergency
use authorization
FDA greenlights Ph 2
in April 2020
Ph 3 RCTs expected to
launch in May 2020
CP therapy to expand
nationwide, pending
Ph 3 results
Hyperimmune
globulin
H-Ig clinical trials
anticipated to begin in
June 2020
Phase 2/3 readouts in
Aug - Sep 2020 and
early access
Tocilizumab
Observation study in
China shows improved
survival
Roche Ph 3 trial
launched in March
2020
Preliminary results
reveal significant
mortality reduction
Wide availability,
pending Ph 3 trial
results
Sarilumab
Ph 2/3 trial launched
in March 2020
Interim results show
lower mortality in MV
patients
Wide availability,
pending Ph 3 trial
results
Therapy
Therapies: Many assets in development, broad availability as soon as Q3 2020
Q2 2020 2021+Q3 2020 Q4 2020
Key: Prelim. data Early accessTrial start
Q1 2020
Broad availability
9
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Vaccines: Traditional development takes at least 5-10 years; companies are
moving aggressively towards a 12-18 month COVID-19 vaccine
Traditional paradigm
takes > 5 years
Small-scale clinical trial material
Commercial scale-up
Potential accelerated
pathway for Covid-19
vaccine
Phase 3
Commercial
launch
Phase 2
Phase 1
Disc
.
Discovery /
screening
Phase 3 Commercial launchPhase 2Phase 1
Small-scale clinical trial material Commercial scale-up
Limited pre-
clinical testing
Start Ph 2 with
interim Ph1 data
Emergency use
authorization for a
small volume release
(millions scale)
Scale-up at risk
Potential surrogate of
efficacy study
Scale to support
global demand
(billions scale)
0 101 2 3 4Time-frame (yrs) 5
10
Preparing to scale and deliver
11
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Potential target populations and requisite capacity vary by public health or
economic objective
Health care
workers
(10s of millions)
65+ y/o
population
(100s of millions)
Underlying
conditions
(~1 Billion)
Essential workers
(100s of millions)
Remaining
workforce
(2-3 Billion)
60-70% of total
pop.
(5-6 Billion)
"Super spreaders"
(TBD)
High density
areas/outbreak
response
(TBD)
60-70% of total
pop.
(5-6 Billion)
Lower volume Higher volume
Objective
Protect those most
vulnerable
Minimum economic
disruption
Prevent transmission
Low demand scenarios target
highest-priority population
Relevant population
(estimated number of
people)
Key considerations include: supply availability, regulatory
confidence, epidemiology, delivery feasibility, etc.
12
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Scaling production for high-volume scenarios is a complex task
Multiple elements to end-to-end design for large-scale
COVID-19 vaccines
Need to anticipate requirements, bottlenecks, and
interventions for each element (e.g. finish / fill)
Materials &
components
Bulk
antigen
mfg.
Formula-
tion
Filling Packaging
Lot
release /
QA
Testing / QC
Logistics, Storage, and Distribution
Information and Analytics
Six potential interventions to optimize finish / fill capacity
Collaborate across industry to identify capacity
opportunities
Pull forward production and stockpile existing vaccines
Standardize how vaccine will be filled / distributed
Suppliers to make stoppers, vials, other critical
materials available
Build additional new capacity rapidly if / as needed
Potentially reconfigure existing lines and de-bottleneck
13
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Partnerships critical for success
Private-private partnerships Public-private partnerships
Various parties
Examples / not-exhaustive
Other
manufacturers
Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.
14
Take-homes
Myriad of therapies and vaccines in development today
• Crucial to have multiple assets in development, to account for regulatory
approval rates, different patient populations, supply chain limitations, and
potential need for combination therapies
Must proactively prepare to scale and deliver
• Potential target populations and requisite capacity vary by public health or
economic objective (i.e., protect vulnerable populations vs. prevent disease
transmission)
• There are multiple elements to end-to-end design for large-scale COVID-19
vaccines - need to anticipate requirements, bottlenecks, and interventions
for each element
Partnerships are critical for success
• These involve a wide variety of parties, including: pharma / biotech
companies, pharma / biotech trade organizations, academic medical
centers, government agencies, and NGOs / philanthropic organizations
15
Q&A session
16
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Thank you!
17
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COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines

  • 1. JUNE 3, 2020 Worldwide Health Care Alumni Webinar COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
  • 2. Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. 1 Antitrust Compliance Statement 1. Chatham House Rules apply: Participants are free to use the information received, but may not reveal the identity or the affiliation of the other participants 2. Participants shall only discuss the topics listed on the agenda 3. Participants shall neither exchange nor discuss competitively sensitive information. Competitively sensitive information includes but is not limited to information: i. regarding recent, current or future pricing strategies; ii. that affects price such as specific discounts, costs or profit margins; iii. regarding capacity or output. iv. regarding allocating customers or geographic areas. v. regarding boycotting third parties or discriminating against or excluding other competitors, suppliers or customers. vi. regarding their market positions or individual plans, including client or supplier relationships, costs, production levels, R&D etc. By remaining connected to this call, you agree with the above
  • 3. 2 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. COVID-19 therapy and vaccine team on today's webinar Managing Director & Senior Partner Barry Rosenberg, MD Managing Director & Partner Josh Kellar, PhD Managing Director & Partner Emily Serazin Principal Ciarán Lawlor, PhD Chicago ChicagoWashington D.C. Boston
  • 5. 4 State of the science
  • 6. 5 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Critical to have a variety of therapeutic modalities and vaccine approaches in development for several reasons: Only a small % of assets will gain regulatory approval Different therapies / vaccines will be suitable for different populations Supply chain limitations mean that no single asset can be produced quantities to meet demand For therapies: potential that combination treatment becomes standard-of-care
  • 7. 6 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Therapies: three main modalities under development Antivirals Antibodies Immunomodulators Description • Prevent viral entry into cells or inhibit viral replication • Create passive immunity by neutralizing viral particles • Ameliorate damage caused by hyperimmune response to infection Current status • Modest efficacy shown for Remdesivir • Lopinavir-ritonavir in WHO Solidarity trial • Numerous trials in progress • Initial lead-candidate data expected in Q3 • Preliminary results show mortality reduction • Potential wide availability in Q3, pending Ph 3 results Example companies (not-exhaustive)
  • 8. 7 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Vaccines: four main platforms under development Nucleic acid Protein subunit Virus Viral vector Description • Genetic info. for cells to make "safe" viral proteins • Immune-stimulating component of the virus • Inactivated or weakened form of the virus • Replicating and non- replicating approaches Current status • Moderna in Ph 2 • Other companies in Ph 1/2 & preclinical phases • Novavax in Ph 1/2 • Other companies in preclinical phases • Sinopharm & Sinovac inactivated candidates in Ph 1/2 • Other companies in preclinical phases • Oxford/AstraZeneca candidate in Ph 2b/3 • CanSino candidate in Ph2 • Numerous other companies in preclinical phases Example companies (not-exhaustive)
  • 9. 8 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q4 2020 2021+ Remdesivir Gilead and NIH launch multi-center Ph 3 trials Gilead provides compassionate use access Prelim results from China site indicates no clinical benefit Gilead and NIH Ph 3 studies achieve primary endpoint Modest benefit of 5- day course shown in moderate patients Chloroquine/ Hydroxy- chloroquine French study shows reduction in viral loads Retrospective study shows no clinical benefit NIH ORCHID and Oxford trials launch in April 2020 Inc. mortality per Lancet study – drugs pulled from WHO trial Preliminary ORCHID results expected in Fall 2020 Wide availability Interim Oxford study results are expected in 2021 Ritonavir- lopinavir RCT in China failed to show clinical benefit Drug combo included WHO SOLIDARITY Trial Neutralizing antibodies Trials launched; multiple companies pushing development Eli Lily launches Ph 1 trial of first-ever COVID-19-specific tx Initial lead-candidate data expected from multiple trials Convalescent plasma FDA allows emergency use authorization FDA greenlights Ph 2 in April 2020 Ph 3 RCTs expected to launch in May 2020 CP therapy to expand nationwide, pending Ph 3 results Hyperimmune globulin H-Ig clinical trials anticipated to begin in June 2020 Phase 2/3 readouts in Aug - Sep 2020 and early access Tocilizumab Observation study in China shows improved survival Roche Ph 3 trial launched in March 2020 Preliminary results reveal significant mortality reduction Wide availability, pending Ph 3 trial results Sarilumab Ph 2/3 trial launched in March 2020 Interim results show lower mortality in MV patients Wide availability, pending Ph 3 trial results Therapy Therapies: Many assets in development, broad availability as soon as Q3 2020 Q2 2020 2021+Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Key: Prelim. data Early accessTrial start Q1 2020 Broad availability
  • 10. 9 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Vaccines: Traditional development takes at least 5-10 years; companies are moving aggressively towards a 12-18 month COVID-19 vaccine Traditional paradigm takes > 5 years Small-scale clinical trial material Commercial scale-up Potential accelerated pathway for Covid-19 vaccine Phase 3 Commercial launch Phase 2 Phase 1 Disc . Discovery / screening Phase 3 Commercial launchPhase 2Phase 1 Small-scale clinical trial material Commercial scale-up Limited pre- clinical testing Start Ph 2 with interim Ph1 data Emergency use authorization for a small volume release (millions scale) Scale-up at risk Potential surrogate of efficacy study Scale to support global demand (billions scale) 0 101 2 3 4Time-frame (yrs) 5
  • 11. 10 Preparing to scale and deliver
  • 12. 11 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Potential target populations and requisite capacity vary by public health or economic objective Health care workers (10s of millions) 65+ y/o population (100s of millions) Underlying conditions (~1 Billion) Essential workers (100s of millions) Remaining workforce (2-3 Billion) 60-70% of total pop. (5-6 Billion) "Super spreaders" (TBD) High density areas/outbreak response (TBD) 60-70% of total pop. (5-6 Billion) Lower volume Higher volume Objective Protect those most vulnerable Minimum economic disruption Prevent transmission Low demand scenarios target highest-priority population Relevant population (estimated number of people) Key considerations include: supply availability, regulatory confidence, epidemiology, delivery feasibility, etc.
  • 13. 12 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Scaling production for high-volume scenarios is a complex task Multiple elements to end-to-end design for large-scale COVID-19 vaccines Need to anticipate requirements, bottlenecks, and interventions for each element (e.g. finish / fill) Materials & components Bulk antigen mfg. Formula- tion Filling Packaging Lot release / QA Testing / QC Logistics, Storage, and Distribution Information and Analytics Six potential interventions to optimize finish / fill capacity Collaborate across industry to identify capacity opportunities Pull forward production and stockpile existing vaccines Standardize how vaccine will be filled / distributed Suppliers to make stoppers, vials, other critical materials available Build additional new capacity rapidly if / as needed Potentially reconfigure existing lines and de-bottleneck
  • 14. 13 Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. Partnerships critical for success Private-private partnerships Public-private partnerships Various parties Examples / not-exhaustive Other manufacturers
  • 15. Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved. 14 Take-homes Myriad of therapies and vaccines in development today • Crucial to have multiple assets in development, to account for regulatory approval rates, different patient populations, supply chain limitations, and potential need for combination therapies Must proactively prepare to scale and deliver • Potential target populations and requisite capacity vary by public health or economic objective (i.e., protect vulnerable populations vs. prevent disease transmission) • There are multiple elements to end-to-end design for large-scale COVID-19 vaccines - need to anticipate requirements, bottlenecks, and interventions for each element Partnerships are critical for success • These involve a wide variety of parties, including: pharma / biotech companies, pharma / biotech trade organizations, academic medical centers, government agencies, and NGOs / philanthropic organizations
  • 18. 17 The services and materials provided by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) are subject to BCG's Standard Terms (a copy of which is available upon request) or such other agreement as may have been previously executed by BCG. BCG does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Client is responsible for obtaining independent advice concerning these matters. This advice may affect the guidance given by BCG. Further, BCG has made no undertaking to update these materials after the date hereof, notwithstanding that such information may become outdated or inaccurate. The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG. These materials serve only as the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and may not be relied on as a stand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any Third Party to, rely on these materials for any purpose whatsoever. To the fullest extent permitted by law (and except to the extent otherwise agreed in a signed writing by BCG), BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any Third Party, and any Third Party hereby waives any rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the services, this presentation, or other materials, including the accuracy or completeness thereof. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations of market transactions, and these materials should not be relied on or construed as such. Further, the financial evaluations, projected market and financial information, and conclusions contained in these materials are based upon standard valuation methodologies, are not definitive forecasts, and are not guaranteed by BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client. BCG has not independently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or operating assumptions will clearly impact the analyses and conclusions. Copyright©2020byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.