The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.

1. The Real Estate Report
land and materials are rising and there is a lack of
finished lots in neighborhoods where people want to
live. These price constraints create an incentive for
builders to construct fewer, and more expensive
homes, because under such high demand, they can
fetch higher prices for each home they do sell,
CNBC reports.
Starting in 2012, Days of Inventory, or how long it
would take to sell all the homes for sale at the
current rate of home sales, has averaged thirty-eight
days. That is far short of the Bay Area’s “balanced”
market of ninety to one hundred and twenty days.
There you have it. The new normal: low inventory
resulting in multiple offers and rising prices.
Once upon a time, in a market far, far away, the
National Association of REALTORS® decreed that
six months’ of inventory indicated a “balanced”
market. This was for the national market. In regional
markets, your mileage would vary.
In the Bay Area, our mileage varied significantly. A
“balanced” market here was between three and four
months’ of inventory.
Those days are long gone. During the Great
Recession of 2007 through 2011, inventory levels
spiked as sales plummeted and foreclosures
jumped.
Beginning in 2012, sales rose to normal levels, but
inventory went down the drain.
There are three main reasons for the lack of
inventory over the past five years, all of which seem
intractable.
First, baby boomers aren’t moving. According to an
AARP survey, 87% of baby boomers over the age of
65 want to stay in their homes. The main reason is
to be near family and friends. Another reason is to
avoid excess capital taxes. Selling a principal
residence allows for either a $250K shield if single,
or a $500K shield if married. Any gains over those
amounts are taxed as capital gains. There are some
ways around this, most of which involve setting up
trusts. That is something you would need to discuss
with your tax attorney and/or accountant.
Second, a significant number of the homes that
were foreclosed on were bought by hedge funds
and big private-equity groups who bought in bulk
from the banks. Then, rather than flipping the
homes, they rented them out to the families who had
been foreclosed upon.
Frank Nothaft an economist with Corelogic, says in
2006 there were nine million single family houses in
in the rental stock. That number increased by three
million in the following seven years, he said.
As a result, there were many fewer homes for sale,
which helped drive up prices in markets around the
country.
There is, as yet, no sign these investors will be
putting those properties back on the market.
The third intractable reason for low inventory is
builders aren’t building.
Home builders say it's new regulations that are
holding them back from filling the void. CNBC
reports that such regulations may cost builders up to
a quarter of the price of a new home, and a recent
National Association of Home Builders study found
regulatory costs have increased 29 percent in the
past five years. The builders also say labor
shortages are holding them back. Finally, prices for
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/
CA BRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
Robb Fleischer | (415) 447-2009 | rfleischer@amsiemail.com
Real Estate’s New Normal
Local Market Trends April/May 2017San Francisco
Mar 17 Feb 17 Mar 16
Home Sales: 268 168 257
Median Price: 1,200,000$ 1,090,000$ 1,100,000$
Average Price: 1,561,738$ 1,387,037$ 1,440,337$
SP/LP: 108.2% 109.8% 109.0%
Days on Market: 31 43 29
Mar 17 Feb 17 Mar 16
Condo Sales: 295 162 291
Median Price: 1,100,000$ 1,129,000$ 998,000$
Average Price: 1,230,744$ 1,275,382$ 1,160,853$
SP/LP: 104.2% 103.1% 104.6%
Days on Market: 30 39 30
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0
6
M M J S N 0
7
M M J S N 0
8
MM J S N 0
9
MM J S N 1
0
MM J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
MM J S N 1
5
MM J S N 1
6
MM J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com

2. Mar. 31, 2017 -- Mortgage rates dipped a little further
this week, settling close to the bottom of a range that
has held throughout 2017, so far. However, we're
probably pretty near the bottom of the between-Fed-
meetings valley for rates, now that we're two weeks
past the last central bank get-together.
The Fed's steady outlook for policy was one reason
mortgage rates retreated from a recent peak; disap-
pointment over a Republican failure to even vote on a
repeal of the Affordable Care Act was another, as it
casts at least some doubts that President Trump's
agenda of tax and regulatory reform will come to
pass, or at least come to pass anytime soon.
As well, with major stock indexes stocks hitting a
record on several occasions in the first quarter, it is
likely that at least some investors shifted funds out of
equities and in to bonds in order to help lock in gains.
Now that we've come to both the end of the month
and the end of the quarter, odds favor at least some
reallocation the other way in the days ahead.
Mortgage rates remain very favorable as the "spring
homebuying season" kicks into full gear as April sets
in. However, a full calendar of fresh inbound data
along with the turn of the month and quarter probably
sees us poised for a couple of basis point increase
next week at least as far as the average conforming
30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac is con-
cerned.
Meanwhile, we'll be perusing the latest on both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing business ac-
tivity from the ISM, the March employment report,
and plenty more. One potential market-mover is the
minutes from the March Fed meeting; certainly, we
already know what they did (lift rates) but perhaps
we're learn a little more about why (opportunism,
perhaps?) Should make for some good reading.
Robb Fleischer
AMSI Real Estate Services
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
CA BRE #01403882
2 Local Market Trends | San Francisco |
Mortgage Rates Lower But Still Rangebound
The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mort-
gages as compiled by HSH.com. The aver-
age includes mortgages of all sizes, includ-
ing conforming, "expanded conforming,"
and jumbo.
April/May 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,200,000$ 1,561,738$ 268 31 108.2% 9.1% 8.4% 4.3% 10.1% 12.6% 59.5%
D1: Northwest 1,628,000$ 1,823,791$ 13 49 106.2% -29.7% -20.0% 18.2% -19.6% -0.6% 160.0%
D2: Central West 1,200,000$ 1,281,429$ 28 32 114.8% 4.3% 6.5% 64.7% 1.2% 0.2% 115.4%
D3: Southwest 960,000$ 1,096,714$ 7 18 122.9% -31.4% -12.2% -36.4% 4.3% -3.1% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,551,000$ 1,795,110$ 25 17 114.0% 1.7% 19.6% 92.3% -2.5% 15.5% 108.3%
D5: Central 2,375,000$ 2,757,190$ 29 20 108.5% 8.0% 10.9% 93.3% -4.0% 2.5% 61.1%
D6: Central North 4,925,000$ 4,511,667$ 3 24 99.6% n/a n/a n/a 51.5% 70.3% 0.0%
D7: North 6,777,500$ 6,905,000$ 6 50 106.7% 106.6% 110.5% 500.0% 0.3% 2.2% 200.0%
D8: Northeast 2,635,000$ 3,701,667$ 3 15 99.3% -34.1% -7.5% 200.0% -56.8% -39.3% 200.0%
D9: Central East 1,500,000$ 1,713,316$ 19 17 105.8% -2.0% -10.6% 72.7% 16.5% 33.2% 5.6%
D10: Southeast 850,000$ 892,203$ 37 51 110.8% 11.8% 17.1% 68.2% 0.3% 1.2% 42.3%
March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-08
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
01-12
07-12
01-13
07-13
01-14
07-14
01-15
07-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50% were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or the
price paid for the property divided
by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell that
hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number pf properties actively for
sale as of the last day of the month.
Robb Fleischer
AMSI Real Estate Services
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
CA BRE #01403882
Local Market Trends | San Francisco | 3April/May 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
9
A J O 1
0
A J O 1
1
A J O 1
2
A J O 1
3
A J O 1
4
A J O 1
5
A J O 1
6
A J O 1
7
San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
© 2017 rereport.com
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0
6
M M J S N 0
7
M M J S N 0
8
M M J S N 0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,100,000$ 1,230,744$ 295 30 104.2% 10.2% 6.0% 1.4% -2.6% -3.5% 82.1%
D1: Northwest 1,180,000$ 1,176,667$ 12 23 109.3% -5.6% 2.6% -29.4% 118.1% 50.5% 300.0%
D2: Central West 975,000$ 954,400$ 5 17 101.7% -7.1% -16.1% -28.6% n/a n/a n/a
D3: Southwest 1,137,527$ 1,000,676$ 5 47 105.1% 106.8% 71.2% 0.0% 75.0% 17.3% 66.7%
D4: Twin Peaks 705,000$ 653,667$ 3 12 107.1% 8.5% 0.6% 200.0% 9.3% 1.3% 50.0%
D5: Central 1,265,000$ 1,378,259$ 41 21 110.3% 3.3% 4.2% 115.8% -17.1% -16.2% 95.2%
D6: Central North 1,130,000$ 1,147,181$ 36 31 105.0% -6.6% -5.5% 38.5% -16.3% -11.0% 140.0%
D7: North 1,326,000$ 1,534,208$ 24 22 105.8% -31.1% -24.9% 166.7% -18.4% -8.6% -7.7%
D8: Northeast 1,325,000$ 1,591,562$ 39 33 102.2% 15.5% 20.7% 77.3% 53.2% 4.8% 85.7%
D9: Central East 1,085,000$ 1,230,920$ 97 39 101.1% 0.5% 9.2% 49.2% 6.0% 7.3% 86.5%
D10: Southeast 520,000$ 483,500$ 3 14 103.2% n/a n/a n/a 0.0% -7.0% 50.0%
March Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.
Robb Fleischer
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown:
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2017 rereport.com
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
M
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2017 rereport.com