This document discusses recent housing market trends in Southwest California. It notes that in May, home sales increased 14% from the previous month while median home prices rose 4%. Inventory remains low across most cities in the region, at 2 months or less of supply. The fast pace of home sales compared to new listings coming on the market has led to absorption rates over 100% in many cities, making it difficult to build up inventory. Distressed property sales continue to decline as a percentage of the total market.
The document discusses mixed signals in the housing market recovery based on recent economic data and housing reports. It begins by noting that March saw improvements in home sales and prices locally, but the overall outlook is mixed based on other articles. One article points to stalled consumer sentiment while another shows a surge in housing demand. Economic forecasts were revised down based on weaker-than-expected job growth numbers in March. The local real estate market saw a jump in home sales in March with reduced inventory and seller skepticism despite signs of a strong seller's market. The impact of potential water rate increases on the recovery is uncertain.
The document discusses a meeting of realtors where speakers explained the slow housing recovery, noting that recovery depends on one's financial position prior to the crisis. Younger generations are not buying homes as expected due to factors like student debt or preference to live at home. While local markets are improving, with sales and prices up, the national recovery remains uneven and hampered by restrictive lending and high unemployment.
What's happening i the housing market for Southwest California? Sales lag, prices climb, inventory up, affordability down - and watch out for that election.
The document discusses the housing market recovery and policy issues affecting homeowners. It summarizes comments from an economist predicting a multi-year housing recovery driven by job growth and pent-up demand. It also discusses a proposed bill (SB 30) that would provide tax relief for homeowners undergoing short sales, but notes the bill is linked to another potentially increasing taxes. The document advocates for the two bills to receive separate votes based on their individual merits.
The document discusses differing views on the state of the US housing market recovery:
1) Some data and analysts suggest the housing market recovery is making slow but steady progress, with housing indices and sales increasing gradually over time.
2) However, others note that the slow rate of recovery remains a concern, and many local markets and homeowners are still not feeling the effects of the economic recovery.
3) Economists have become more optimistic about the housing outlook over the next two years due to an improving job market, but views still differ on how quickly the market will normalize.
Home sales are down in the local area and nationwide compared to last year, which was one of the best years in a decade. However, the housing market is not in recession and is expected to see modest growth of around 1% per year over the next two years. Challenges to increasing housing supply include restrictive environmental policies, high permitting costs imposed by local governments, and difficulties rebuilding after wildfires.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in California. It notes that while prices rose quickly in 2013, driven by low inventory and investors, the market may be reaching a tipping point. Rising mortgage rates have slowed buyer demand and impacted affordability. However, inventory levels are starting to increase, and investors are playing a smaller role. While interest rates caused pause, the recovery is expected to continue as buyers adjust to new market conditions. The recovery is moving toward a more sustainable pace led by traditional buyers and sellers.
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
The document discusses mixed signals in the housing market recovery based on recent economic data and housing reports. It begins by noting that March saw improvements in home sales and prices locally, but the overall outlook is mixed based on other articles. One article points to stalled consumer sentiment while another shows a surge in housing demand. Economic forecasts were revised down based on weaker-than-expected job growth numbers in March. The local real estate market saw a jump in home sales in March with reduced inventory and seller skepticism despite signs of a strong seller's market. The impact of potential water rate increases on the recovery is uncertain.
The document discusses a meeting of realtors where speakers explained the slow housing recovery, noting that recovery depends on one's financial position prior to the crisis. Younger generations are not buying homes as expected due to factors like student debt or preference to live at home. While local markets are improving, with sales and prices up, the national recovery remains uneven and hampered by restrictive lending and high unemployment.
What's happening i the housing market for Southwest California? Sales lag, prices climb, inventory up, affordability down - and watch out for that election.
The document discusses the housing market recovery and policy issues affecting homeowners. It summarizes comments from an economist predicting a multi-year housing recovery driven by job growth and pent-up demand. It also discusses a proposed bill (SB 30) that would provide tax relief for homeowners undergoing short sales, but notes the bill is linked to another potentially increasing taxes. The document advocates for the two bills to receive separate votes based on their individual merits.
The document discusses differing views on the state of the US housing market recovery:
1) Some data and analysts suggest the housing market recovery is making slow but steady progress, with housing indices and sales increasing gradually over time.
2) However, others note that the slow rate of recovery remains a concern, and many local markets and homeowners are still not feeling the effects of the economic recovery.
3) Economists have become more optimistic about the housing outlook over the next two years due to an improving job market, but views still differ on how quickly the market will normalize.
Home sales are down in the local area and nationwide compared to last year, which was one of the best years in a decade. However, the housing market is not in recession and is expected to see modest growth of around 1% per year over the next two years. Challenges to increasing housing supply include restrictive environmental policies, high permitting costs imposed by local governments, and difficulties rebuilding after wildfires.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in California. It notes that while prices rose quickly in 2013, driven by low inventory and investors, the market may be reaching a tipping point. Rising mortgage rates have slowed buyer demand and impacted affordability. However, inventory levels are starting to increase, and investors are playing a smaller role. While interest rates caused pause, the recovery is expected to continue as buyers adjust to new market conditions. The recovery is moving toward a more sustainable pace led by traditional buyers and sellers.
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
The housing market in Canada continues its relatively balanced trajectory with home sales stable and prices rising moderately. Economic growth forecasts were revised upwards and interest rates are expected to rise gradually. Overall the market is expected to remain balanced in the near future with opportunities for both home buyers and sellers.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in Southwest California. It argues that while the market has slowed from previous years, with sales and price appreciation lower than their peaks, there are no signs of an impending crash. Inventory levels have risen slightly, but the market remains balanced with under 2.9 months of supply. The market is described as healthy and correcting at a normal pace after a long period of rapid gains, with continued pent-up demand from first-time buyers expected to support prices going forward barring major economic changes. Overall, the analysis finds the market stable and performing within expectations.
Your one-stop-shop for housing data for the Southwest California market. Sales, median and average price, distressed property, absorption and INVENTORY! By city.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in Southwest California. It notes that home prices have increased 22% year-over-year in June 2013, with median prices reaching their highest levels since 2008. Home sales have remained steady while inventory has risen, alleviating pressure. Distressed home sales now make up a smaller portion of the market. The recovery appears to be continuing but uncertainty remains around employment, the economy, and new state regulations governing foreclosures. The author advocates restoring a tax exemption for senior homeowners to attract more to the region and boost the economy.
The document summarizes recent positive economic trends and events in Canada including rising home sales, home prices, and consumer confidence. Mortgage rates remain low while help wanted ads and salaries are expected to rise in 2010. Exports increased in November moving Canada to a trade surplus. The Bank of Canada expects growth forecasts to occur as predicted and will hold interest rates steady.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Jon Weaver
The real estate market in San Francisco is beginning to heat up for three reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two, mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant millionaires.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2015Jon Weaver
California home sales to increase slightly, while prices post slowest gain in five years. California’s housing market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist,
according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market Forecast”.
The document summarizes recent trends in the Canadian housing market. Prices are at an all-time high but are expected to increase at a slower rate as tighter mortgage regulations and rising interest rates cause the market to become more balanced. Home sales declined in May from the previous month due to fewer purchases in major cities. New listings also declined slightly for the first time in eight months as the market adjusts to changing conditions. The Canadian economy remains strong overall despite the rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
The document provides an overview of the positive economic signs in Canada over the past year, including increased consumer spending and confidence, an expected boost from the upcoming Olympics, and signs of a strengthening housing market such as record home sales and rising prices. It also summarizes recent mortgage rates, exports, job postings data and expectations for a thaw in salary freezes in 2010, indicating further economic recovery. Local real estate conditions may vary so buyers and sellers are advised to consult their Keller Williams agent for specific market insights.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the Southwest California housing market in 2018 and an outlook for 2019. It notes that 2018 sales were down 12% from 2017 but above forecasts. Median home prices rose 6% in 2018 but price increases slowed in the last quarter. The author expects home sales to decline another 3-4% in 2019 while prices rise 3-5%, with some markets seeing declines. The outlook cites concerns around interest rates, housing supply, and state policies around housing, taxes, and regulations that could negatively impact affordability and the economy.
California Home Prices for Each Counties August 2013Ronny Budiutama
The document provides sales data and median home prices for California regions and counties in August 2013. Some key findings include:
- The statewide median price for existing single-family homes was $441,330, up 1.7% from July but down 28.4% from August 2012. The Bay Area saw the largest year-over-year increase at 24.1%.
- Within the Bay Area, Contra Costa and San Mateo counties had the highest median prices in August at over $800,000, while Solano and Santa Clara counties were under $805,000.
- For Southern California regions, Los Angeles county had the highest median price at $444,950, up 5.6% from
- Home sales in 2014 are expected to hold steady at around 5.12 million units, similar to projected sales in 2013. Median home prices are forecast to rise nearly 6% in 2014 after an expected 11% increase in 2013.
- Inventory shortages continue to put upward pressure on home prices. Housing starts need to increase substantially to meet demand and alleviate the shortage.
- Mortgage rates are projected to rise through 2014, reaching over 5% by year-end, which will impact affordability. Job growth and potential easing of lending standards could offset higher rates.
- Inflation may start to rise in 2014 as the rent component increases, emphasizing the need for more new home construction to control price growth
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - May 2020Jon Weaver
Home sales in San Francisco significantly declined in April 2020 compared to the previous year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales of single-family homes dropped 55.3% and condo/townhome sales declined 65%. Meanwhile, average home prices set new records with the median single-family home price up 5.4% and median condo price rising 5.3% from the previous year. Inventory levels also fell substantially. The housing market is expected to continue struggling over the next few months due to economic uncertainties caused by the pandemic.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
- The document discusses recent economic and real estate market data from April 2010, including increased existing home sales, stable home prices, declining inventory, and high affordability due to low mortgage rates.
- It also summarizes a recent policy change by Fannie Mae to shorten the waiting period for homeowners going through a short sale to get a new mortgage, as well as provides summer home maintenance tips.
- The document concludes by noting the importance of consulting a local real estate agent to understand conditions in one's specific housing market.
- The economic recovery is gaining traction slowly, with first quarter GDP growth of 3.2% indicating a sustainable recovery, though it remains subdued compared to past recessions. High unemployment and foreclosures continue to hamper a robust recovery.
- Existing home sales strengthened in March, up 6.5% from February and 16% from the previous year, with 44% of sales being first-time buyers. The median home price was up 0.4% from a year ago.
- Total housing inventory rose slightly but is down 1.8% from the previous year, indicating the market may bottom out in the next few months. Fannie Mae shortened the waiting period for a new mortgage after a short sale
Housing sales in the region dropped significantly in November, falling 19% from October. While median home prices remained higher than last year, rising prices are making it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market. The local housing market outlook remains uncertain as the economy shows mixed signals of growth and contraction heading into the new year.
The housing market in Canada continues its relatively balanced trajectory with home sales stable and prices rising moderately. Economic growth forecasts were revised upwards and interest rates are expected to rise gradually. Overall the market is expected to remain balanced in the near future with opportunities for both home buyers and sellers.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in Southwest California. It argues that while the market has slowed from previous years, with sales and price appreciation lower than their peaks, there are no signs of an impending crash. Inventory levels have risen slightly, but the market remains balanced with under 2.9 months of supply. The market is described as healthy and correcting at a normal pace after a long period of rapid gains, with continued pent-up demand from first-time buyers expected to support prices going forward barring major economic changes. Overall, the analysis finds the market stable and performing within expectations.
Your one-stop-shop for housing data for the Southwest California market. Sales, median and average price, distressed property, absorption and INVENTORY! By city.
The document discusses the state of the housing market in Southwest California. It notes that home prices have increased 22% year-over-year in June 2013, with median prices reaching their highest levels since 2008. Home sales have remained steady while inventory has risen, alleviating pressure. Distressed home sales now make up a smaller portion of the market. The recovery appears to be continuing but uncertainty remains around employment, the economy, and new state regulations governing foreclosures. The author advocates restoring a tax exemption for senior homeowners to attract more to the region and boost the economy.
The document summarizes recent positive economic trends and events in Canada including rising home sales, home prices, and consumer confidence. Mortgage rates remain low while help wanted ads and salaries are expected to rise in 2010. Exports increased in November moving Canada to a trade surplus. The Bank of Canada expects growth forecasts to occur as predicted and will hold interest rates steady.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Jon Weaver
The real estate market in San Francisco is beginning to heat up for three reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two, mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant millionaires.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2015Jon Weaver
California home sales to increase slightly, while prices post slowest gain in five years. California’s housing market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist,
according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market Forecast”.
The document summarizes recent trends in the Canadian housing market. Prices are at an all-time high but are expected to increase at a slower rate as tighter mortgage regulations and rising interest rates cause the market to become more balanced. Home sales declined in May from the previous month due to fewer purchases in major cities. New listings also declined slightly for the first time in eight months as the market adjusts to changing conditions. The Canadian economy remains strong overall despite the rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
The document provides an overview of the positive economic signs in Canada over the past year, including increased consumer spending and confidence, an expected boost from the upcoming Olympics, and signs of a strengthening housing market such as record home sales and rising prices. It also summarizes recent mortgage rates, exports, job postings data and expectations for a thaw in salary freezes in 2010, indicating further economic recovery. Local real estate conditions may vary so buyers and sellers are advised to consult their Keller Williams agent for specific market insights.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the Southwest California housing market in 2018 and an outlook for 2019. It notes that 2018 sales were down 12% from 2017 but above forecasts. Median home prices rose 6% in 2018 but price increases slowed in the last quarter. The author expects home sales to decline another 3-4% in 2019 while prices rise 3-5%, with some markets seeing declines. The outlook cites concerns around interest rates, housing supply, and state policies around housing, taxes, and regulations that could negatively impact affordability and the economy.
California Home Prices for Each Counties August 2013Ronny Budiutama
The document provides sales data and median home prices for California regions and counties in August 2013. Some key findings include:
- The statewide median price for existing single-family homes was $441,330, up 1.7% from July but down 28.4% from August 2012. The Bay Area saw the largest year-over-year increase at 24.1%.
- Within the Bay Area, Contra Costa and San Mateo counties had the highest median prices in August at over $800,000, while Solano and Santa Clara counties were under $805,000.
- For Southern California regions, Los Angeles county had the highest median price at $444,950, up 5.6% from
- Home sales in 2014 are expected to hold steady at around 5.12 million units, similar to projected sales in 2013. Median home prices are forecast to rise nearly 6% in 2014 after an expected 11% increase in 2013.
- Inventory shortages continue to put upward pressure on home prices. Housing starts need to increase substantially to meet demand and alleviate the shortage.
- Mortgage rates are projected to rise through 2014, reaching over 5% by year-end, which will impact affordability. Job growth and potential easing of lending standards could offset higher rates.
- Inflation may start to rise in 2014 as the rent component increases, emphasizing the need for more new home construction to control price growth
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - May 2020Jon Weaver
Home sales in San Francisco significantly declined in April 2020 compared to the previous year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales of single-family homes dropped 55.3% and condo/townhome sales declined 65%. Meanwhile, average home prices set new records with the median single-family home price up 5.4% and median condo price rising 5.3% from the previous year. Inventory levels also fell substantially. The housing market is expected to continue struggling over the next few months due to economic uncertainties caused by the pandemic.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
- The document discusses recent economic and real estate market data from April 2010, including increased existing home sales, stable home prices, declining inventory, and high affordability due to low mortgage rates.
- It also summarizes a recent policy change by Fannie Mae to shorten the waiting period for homeowners going through a short sale to get a new mortgage, as well as provides summer home maintenance tips.
- The document concludes by noting the importance of consulting a local real estate agent to understand conditions in one's specific housing market.
- The economic recovery is gaining traction slowly, with first quarter GDP growth of 3.2% indicating a sustainable recovery, though it remains subdued compared to past recessions. High unemployment and foreclosures continue to hamper a robust recovery.
- Existing home sales strengthened in March, up 6.5% from February and 16% from the previous year, with 44% of sales being first-time buyers. The median home price was up 0.4% from a year ago.
- Total housing inventory rose slightly but is down 1.8% from the previous year, indicating the market may bottom out in the next few months. Fannie Mae shortened the waiting period for a new mortgage after a short sale
Housing sales in the region dropped significantly in November, falling 19% from October. While median home prices remained higher than last year, rising prices are making it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market. The local housing market outlook remains uncertain as the economy shows mixed signals of growth and contraction heading into the new year.
The Southwest California housing market saw declines in sales and prices recently but hopes a traditional spring buying season will provide a boost. While sales were down 7% year-over-year, prior years saw an increase starting in March. Low inventory and high buyer qualifications continue to hamper the market. The region saw a 4% increase in inventory and 9% rise in days on market last month.
The housing market in Southwest California had a strong year in 2020 despite the pandemic shutdown. Sales volume was the highest since 2010 with over 11,000 homes sold. Median and average home prices reached new peaks, with 259 homes selling for over $1 million, up from 174 in 2019. However, inventory remains very low with only 598 homes currently for sale, the lowest level since 2012. The low inventory coupled with continued high demand is expected to sustain price appreciation in 2021, though new policies and economic impacts from the pandemic could influence the market.
The real estate market is showing signs of improvement locally but uncertainty remains due to the national foreclosure moratorium. While housing sales are up 35% and inventory has risen year-over-year in the local area, days on market have increased as the composition of homes for sale has shifted from bank-owned to short sales. The moratorium may delay needed foreclosures and introduce more uncertainty into the market, though its full effects are still unknown. Overall, demand remains strong locally but the market faces challenges from the high rate of short sale failures and potential impacts of the foreclosure review process.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report May-June 2017Jon Weaver
After a period of lower prices last year, median home prices in San Francisco increased in the last two months. The sales to list price ratio has remained over 100% for 51 months, indicating a strong seller's market. Average days on market was 26 days in April, lower than the average of 41 days since 2000. Home sales dropped 28.4% from March to April and were down 8.1% from the previous year, which analysts attribute to low inventory levels at the beginning of the peak spring selling season.
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2015Jon Weaver
- Home prices in San Francisco reached new all-time highs in April and May, with median single-family home prices up 22.7% year-over-year in April. Condo prices also set new records.
- Home sales were up year-over-year for the second month in a row in April and May, while condo sales were down slightly year-over-year.
- The tight inventory and high demand from tech industry buyers and foreign investors is expected to continue driving up prices in the San Francisco market.
Annie Williams Market Trends March-April 2015Jon Weaver
As we’ve mentioned many times, inventory of single-family, re-sale homes, condos and rentals in San Francisco is very low. Fortunately, there are a slew of new buildings in
some stage of planning or construction. At last count, we identified 23 new condo projects around the city. There have been or will shortly be 2,498 new condo/loft units on the market. There are 141 more units in the proposal stage.
This should alleviate some of the pricing pressure in San Francisco.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016Jon Weaver
Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com, and his team carried out the data analysis and identified the top 20 medium-to-large markets where homes are moving fastest and interest
(based on listing views on realtor.com) is highest. At the top of the list, for the second month in a row, is San Francisco, followed by its sister Bay Area city San Jose.
The real estate market in San Francisco remains extremely competitive, with high demand and low inventory pushing home prices to new all-time highs. In April, the median price for single-family homes hit $1,000,000 for the first time, while the median price for condos/lofts reached $855,000. Sales have also doubled or tripled compared to the previous month. With continued expansion of Silicon Valley and an inventory of only around 500 homes for sale, experts predict prices will continue rising sharply due to lack of supply and high demand.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Dec 2015Jon Weaver
- Housing affordability in California is expected to experience long-term issues due to high home prices, not enough homes being built, and rising rents making it difficult for many to save for a down payment.
- In many California markets, including the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California, the luxury home market remains active with Asian buyers continuing to fuel demand. However, overall home sales are down while prices continue rising.
- A lack of housing inventory is seen as a key factor sustaining high home prices in San Francisco, with the median home price rising 13% year-over-year and staying over $1 million for most of the past two years.
The quarterly report summarizes real estate market trends in the San Francisco Bay Area in the fourth quarter of 2015. Key points include:
- Average home sale prices rose year-over-year across all regions, with Marin County reaching a new record high average of $1.515 million.
- The luxury market (top 10% of homes) saw gains in all regions, with the Mid-Peninsula having the highest average sale of $4.631 million.
- Total sales in the Bay Area were strong at $8.014 billion, led by the East Bay which accounted for 58% of sales and 46% of total dollar volume.
This document provides a summary of real estate market trends in San Francisco for August/September 2014. Key points include:
- The median home price in San Francisco was $988,500 in August, up 1.2% year-over-year but down from July. Condo prices also declined slightly.
- Home and condo sales saw small declines compared to previous months but were up year-over-year. Inventory remains low while demand is high.
- Mortgage rates dipped slightly in recent weeks but are expected to remain stable overall.
- Foreclosure activity continued declining from previous years.
Home Prices Resume Upward Trend - May/June Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell in March compared to last year. I think we all expected this amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Home sales were down 8.7%. There were 157 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
Annie Williams Market Trends April-May 2015Jon Weaver
- Home sales in San Francisco jumped 6.5% in March compared to the previous year, while condo sales were down slightly by 1.6%.
- Median home prices rose 25% and average prices increased 22.5% in March compared to the previous year, setting new all-time highs. Condo median prices rose 13.9% year-over-year.
- Mortgage rates are expected to remain low in the coming weeks as recent economic data has been mixed, though rates will likely begin rising later in the year as signaled by the Federal Reserve.
Annie Williams Market Trends July-Aug 2015Jon Weaver
After reaching new all-time highs in May, the median prices for single-family, re-sale homes backed off a bit in June.
Nevertheless, the median home price has been higher than the year before for the past thirty-eight months straight. The median home price has stayed over $1MM for fifteen of the past seventeen months.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped in June, rising 56.7% from May. They were down 14.2% year-over-year. There were 163 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. Year-to-date, home sales are down 29.8%. Condo sales are down 36.9%.
A wrap-up of our 2021 legislative session with special guests California state Senator Melissa Melendez and U.S. Chamber Western Region V.P. Jennings Immel
The document provides details of a Southwest California Legislative Council meeting agenda and minutes. The agenda lists legislative items to be discussed, including bills related to taxation, healthcare, the environment, and other topics. During the meeting, council members discussed and took positions on the legislative items, with most bills receiving an "oppose" position.
This bill places a statewide general obligation bond measure on the 2022 ballot to fund kindergarten through community college facilities. If approved by voters, it would provide $12 billion for new construction, modernization, career technical education, and charter school facilities. It establishes new programs, modifies matching requirements, expands costs covered by state funds, and increases the maximum bonding capacity for districts to qualify as financially hardships. The Southwest California Legislative Council recommends supporting this bill.
This document provides the agenda and minutes for a meeting of the Southwest California Legislative Council. The agenda includes a chair report, approval of previous meeting minutes, presentations from guest speakers on topics like the French Valley Airport tower and redistricting, and reviews of several proposed bills. Key items discussed in the minutes include a presentation from the District Attorney on prosecuting fentanyl drug dealers and legislation around bail reform and limiting the use of gang enhancements. The council took positions supporting or opposing various bills.
The document is a meeting agenda for the Southwest California Legislative Council on March 15, 2021. The agenda includes a call to order, roll call, chair report, approval of minutes, and consideration of 14 legislative items. The council will also receive announcements and adjourn, with the next meeting scheduled for April 19, 2021. The document provides details on the agenda items to be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the Southwest California Legislative Council.
The Southwest California Legislative Council provides advocacy for businesses in Southwest Riverside County. It was formed in 2005 as a coalition of four local chambers of commerce. The Council monitors thousands of bills introduced in the California legislature each year and takes positions to support legislation that benefits businesses and oppose legislation that harms businesses. It publishes annual vote records analyzing how local legislators voted on the Council's priority bills. The document provides details on the Council's 2021 strategic initiatives, bills it is tracking this year, and its 2020 vote record analysis.
The document summarizes demographic and housing market statistics for the Murrieta/Temecula region. It states that 70% of residents are young families or professionals, 40% have an associate degree or higher, and incomes are higher than county and state averages. Year-to-date single family home sales and median prices are up 11% and 15% respectively compared to the previous year. It also notes various challenges on the horizon such as the end of eviction moratoriums and forbearance programs and the potential impacts on inventory, foreclosures, and rental availability.
This bill proposes to prohibit business entities from making direct contributions to political campaigns and create a public financing system to fund elections instead. It argues this is needed to reduce corporate influence over politicians and ensure elected officials represent constituents rather than corporate interests. However, others argue direct contributions are already strictly limited by law and this bill does not address the largest campaign contributors like unions and tribes, only targeting corporations. It may also violate the Citizens United ruling that prohibits restricting independent political expenditures by corporations and unions.
The Southwest California Legislative Council voted to OPPOSE ACA 1, a proposed amendment to the California Constitution that would lower the voter threshold for local governments to finance affordable housing, public facilities, and infrastructure projects from two-thirds to 55%. The resolution would amend various sections of the state Constitution relating to local finance.
The document provides an overview of housing market trends in Wildomar, California and the surrounding region. It discusses Wildomar demographics and economic data, and notes that 80% of Wildomar residents are homeowners. Housing sales data for Wildomar and nearby cities is presented, showing increases in median home prices between 7-15% from 2019 to 2020. The forecast predicts home sales will decline in 2020 but rebound in 2021, while prices continue a slow rise. The impacts of COVID-19 on remote working and its potential effects on the housing market are also summarized.
The meeting agenda summarizes an upcoming Southwest California Legislative Council meeting to be held on September 21, 2020 at the Realtor House in Murrieta. The agenda includes a chair report, approval of previous meeting minutes, a 2020 legislative report, and a guest speaker - Senator Melissa Melendez. The council will discuss 2020 strategic initiatives and legislative items including ballot propositions, the 2020 legislative session progress to date, and announcements from speakers and chambers.
The document provides an overview of demographic, housing market, and economic trends in Lake Elsinore, California. It notes that Lake Elsinore has experienced population growth and shifts towards younger residents in recent years. Housing demand has remained strong, with home sales down slightly in 2020 but prices continuing to rise. The forecast predicts a bounce back in home sales in 2021 while prices continue a slow climb. Remote work is changing housing preferences, with more demand for homes further from urban centers that allow larger spaces for both living and working. Retail and office spaces struggling due to COVID-19 may be converted to residential units. The document also briefly discusses state policies from the 2020 legislative session.
A comprehensive summary of the housing market in Southwest California where we're enjoying the strongest Seller's market in years in July. Sales posted their 2nd highest month in the past decade, up 17% over June and up 11% over last July. Median prices continued to climb as well, advancing 6% year-to-date. We are now measuring inventory of homes for sale in weeks, not months.
Need help figuring out what to do with the 12 propositions you'll face on your November ballot? Every year the Southwest California legislative Council assigns our members a measure to research and present. The Council debates the issue based on what impact it will have on our business community and recommends a position. As always, we encourage voters to do their own research and to that end we have a much more extensive document available with all the arguments pro and con, what your vote means, and follow the money.
Every year the Southwest California Legislative Council evaluates statewide ballot propositions to determine which might fall within the purview of our strategic initiatives and impact our business members. Council members select a proposition to research and deliver a presentation to the group followed by discussion and a vote to recommend a YES vote, a NO vote, or NO POSITION. Here are the group's recommendation on the 12 measures you'll see on our November ballot.
Detailed information courtesy of BallotPedia.
This bill proposes several measures to provide relief for homeowners, tenants, and consumers during the COVID-19 emergency period and 180 days after. It would prohibit lenders from initiating foreclosures or evictions during this time. It would require lenders to provide up to 180 days of forbearance on mortgage payments for borrowers experiencing financial hardship, and to extend that period if hardship continues. It would also place restrictions on lenders related to foreclosure proceedings, recording notices of default, and misleading borrowers about forbearance options. Opponents argue it imposes overly burdensome obligations on lenders and could jeopardize future credit availability.
The Southwest California Legislative Council met on May 18, 2020 to discuss several legislative items and initiatives. The meeting agenda included a chair report, approval of previous meeting minutes, and discussion of 10 legislative bills. The bills covered topics such as unemployment benefits, property assessments, worker status, community emissions reduction programs, and the California Environmental Quality Act. The council also heard from a speaker about available COVID-19 business relief programs before adjourning and announcing their next meeting on June 15.
The legislature in Sacramento is still out but that doesn't change the fact that at some point they'll be back and our business members need our advocacy more than ever. Especially critical when you hear about some of the gut-and-amend bills happening right now like AB 828, which would irreparably harm every landlord in California.
During this time of crisis does it really make sense to deprive laid off California workers of an opportunity to make a living as temporary, gig economy workers? The Wall Street Journal has praised the gig economy as being a 'rescue' for many in this time of widespread need with companies like Uber, Lyft, GrubHub, Postmates and Uber Eats providing much needed delivery options for housebound residents as well as a supplemental source of income for laid off workers. Please encourage our Governor to do the right thing and SUSPEND enforcement of this deeply flawed measure at least for the duration of this crisis.
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BEST FARMLAND FOR SALE | FARM PLOTS NEAR BANGALORE | KANAKAPURA | CHICKKABALP...knox groups real estate
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The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
1. Having fun yet?
Well, yesterday was election day across the state and not much changed really. There will obviously be a bigger
impact in November but even that isn’t likely to change much locally. Our IE economy is doing pretty well, albeit
slowly. At our annual SRCAR Breakfast with the City Managers, the CM’s from 8 cities shared their progress
and vision at meetings in Murrieta and Hemet. There’s a lot going on here including commercial and retail
development, transportation and infrastructure improvements and somewhere in excess of 15,000 new housing
units either under construction or in the planning stages. Very encouraging.
Our local housing market has had its share of up’s and down’s so far this year. Sales down, prices down; sales
way up, prices down; sales way down, prices up; what’s next? In January our month-to-month (mtm) sales
dropped 25% from December and our median price fell 1%. February sales picked up 1% but prices fell another
½%. March spiked up 29% in sales and prices increased 4%. For some reason, April home sales dropped 9% in
what has traditionally been a growth month. April sales were slow across all of California even though they were
very strong in most of the rest of the country. Historically, local sales should increase every month from now thru
July or August. This year? Who knows?
May sales picked up 14% and medians were up 4% mtm. That puts our year-to-date sales volume 2% ahead
of 2015 (4,302 / 4,396) and keeps our median price 7% ahead of this point in 2015 ($295,647 / $316,510) for the
region. Individual cities may vary.
You already know the Fed has waffled on raising interest rates this month. We talked about that a couple months
back – just when the economy appears to be getting strong enough to weather a rate hike, some part of it tanks
again and we’re reminded just how fragile and potentially illusory our recovery really is.
The jobs report for May was dismal. Even the cooked books of the Labor Department could only find 38,000 new
jobs in May. And that was after they ‘adjusted’ March and April numbers down 59,000 jobs. Here’s three different
reads of the same report – using terms like ‘Drastic’ and ‘Bleak’, one department said “That 38,000 jobs is the
fewest since 2010”. The department across the hall said “But the unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the
lowest it’s been since November, 2007. Isn’t that great?” Then another department chimed in, “We only got to
4.7% unemployment because 458,000 more Americans gave up trying.” Pick your own spin on this one.
While consumers seem to be spending more, consumer confidence was down in May and GDP results so far this
year have been underwhelming. Housing remained a bright spot in some ways with the National Association of
Realtors® reporting home sales at a 10 year high across the country and prices rebounding to within 4% of their
pre-recession level. Of course that’s for markets that only declined 30%. In markets like ours that dropped 60%,
there’s still a ways to go.
Two problems with the housing market to keep an eye on. One problem is that low inventory and decent demand
is driving prices ever higher reducing affordability. That is keeping a lot of people out of the market as first timers
just can’t afford a home and people who lost their homes before are getting priced and regulated out. Investors
left long ago. Inventory remains very low - 6 of our 9 cities currently have an inventory of less that 2 months!
Only Canyon Lake has an inventory that would be considered ‘normal’ by normal standards – 6.2 months.
This is creating a second problem that is just starting to be explored in many areas. More builders are building
homes for the upper end client – expensive homes that are selling well and more profitably to people who have
actually benefitted from the Obama economy, and not enough lower end homes for people who barely qualify
and where the profit margin is slim. Even in our area many of the homes in the pipeline would qualify as
moderate and higher developments – and why not? With higher coastal prices continuing to drive population our
way in search of affordable homes, is it any wonder our local ‘affordable’ homes are pushing the marginally
qualified even further inland? Or out of state?
The good news is – only 5 more months until this interminable campaign season ends.
2. SW Market @ A Glance
Southwest
California Reporting
Period
Current
Period
Last
Period Year Ago
Change
from
Last
Period
Change
from
Year
Ago
Existing Home Sales
(SFR Detached)
May 2014 1,110 951 1054 14% 5%
Median Home Price $332,044$317,968$306,077 4% 8%
Unsold Inventory Index
(SFR Units)
2,159 2,006 2,271 7% 5%
Unsold Inventory Index
(Months)
2.4 2.7 2.6 11% 8%
Median Time on Market
(Days)
60 65 69 8% 13%
Source: CRMLS
3. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Wildomar
0
50
100
150
200
250
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris
Southwest California Homes I-15 Corridor
Single Family Sales
Southwest California Homes I-215 Corridor
Single Family Sales
5. April 2016 Transaction Value*:
Temecula $78,702,089 Lake Elsinore $29,324,802
Murrieta $73,195,291 Wildomar $13,429,386
Menifee $51,440,384 Canyon Lake $5,226,000
Hemet $33,973,793 San Jacinto $14,890,825
Perris $20,002,005 Total $320,194,991
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
May 2016 Transaction Value*:
Temecula $77,380,227 Lake Elsinore $34,705,296
Murrieta $90,097,629 Wildomar $13,107,797
Menifee $63,752,546 Canyon Lake $8,179,400
Hemet $41,970,559 San Jacinto $16,843,138
Perris $27,697,791 Total $ 373,734,628
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
May Median Price:
2015 2016 %
Temecula $390,450 $415,000 6%
Murrieta $355,500 $395,000 10%
Menifee $295,000 $318,000 7%
Lake Elsinore $297,000 $325,000 9%
Wildomar $345,000 $359,950 4%
Canyon Lake $421,250 $350,000 17%
Hemet $196,000 $219,000 11%
San Jacinto $207,500 $242,000 14%
Perris $247,700 $264,450 6%
7. May Market Activity
By Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT
Temecula 465 96% 160 95% 3 1% 2 1% 16 3% 6 4%
Murrieta 366 95% 198 94% 2 1% 3 1% 9 2% 7 3%
Wildomar 70 91% 33 92% 1 1% 1 3% 5 6% 1 3%
Lake Elsinore 185 93% 102 93% 3 2% 2 2% 10 5% 6 5%
Menifee 273 69% 199 94% 4 1% 3 1% 11 3% 5 2%
Canyon Lake 140 97% 22 100% 2 1% 0 0% 3 2% 0 0%
Hemet 306 92% 173 92% 10 3% 9 5% 13 4% 7 4%
San Jacinto 100 85% 66 90% 6 5% 3 4% 12 10% 2 3%
Perris 97 86% 78 87% 5 4% 1 1% 7 6% 7 8%
Regional
Average
2002 89% 1031 93% 36 2% 24 2% 86 4% 41 4%
Let’s talk prices. Last year I switched out reports of average price to true median price. Average price of
a home is derived by dividing the transaction value for the month by the number of homes sold.
Depending on the mix of homes sold there can be quite a delta between average and median price, as
when an area starts to sell more higher end homes. That can skew the average price pretty dramatically
as when I used to caution that ‘a $million plus home sold in the Wine Country, La Cresta or Canyon
Lake, may tweak the average price upwards disproportionally.’
The median price is the point at which half the homes sell for more, half for less. It is a more reliable
barometer of housing prices, less volatile and, in some cases, far less dramatic. For example, in
Temecula there were 3 homes sold over $1 million last month including one at $2.7 mil. (That one
originally listed for $3.9 by the way.) The median price in Temecula last month actually dropped from
$417,755 to $415,000 but the average price increased from $457,823 to $460,597. Similarly in Murrieta
with 4 homes over $1 mil, the median rose from $390,000 to $395,000 while the average price went
from $390,748 to $427,003. Average prices are more fun!
Adding to our inventory problem is the fact that we are selling houses faster than we’re listing new ones.
Six local cities had absorption rates in excess of 100% last month with Murrieta and Menifee selling
143% of new listings (1.4 homes sold for every new listing) and Perris selling more than two homes for
every new property to hit the market (209%). Hard to build inventory that way.
Homes were also staying on the market a little less time – 60 days compared to 65 the previous month.
Lenders have learned to handle the timeframes of the TRID disclosure forms introduced last October.
Initially this caused an increase of nearly 2 weeks to every closed escrow but now that they have a
handle on it we’re back down.
Finally, as indicated below, distressed property sales continue to decline as a percentage of the market
with most cities back to pre-bust levels averaging around 4%.
12. And now…
A few words about those pesky Millennials who are destined
to be the savior of the housing market and the general answer
for questions about anything plaguing the environment to
household formation to the reason people #FeelTheBern.
13. Millennials are staying at home.
According to a new study by the Pew Research Center, millennial men
are more likely to live with their parents than with a spouse or partner,
with 35% staying with mom and dad and just 28% living with a
significant other.
Millennial women are less likely to live at home than with a partner, but
not by much. Thirty-five percent live with a significant other, while 29%
live with their parents. This is the smallest gap for young-adult women
ever recorded by Pew.
In fact, more millennials (ages 18 to 34 as defined by Pew) are living at
home than in any other living arrangement. This is the first time a
plurality of young adults in that age bracket have lived with their
parents, rather than on their own or with a partner or roommates, in
American history, according to the Pew analysis. A grand total of
32.1% of millennials are living at home.
There could be a few reasons for this shift, according to Richard Fry at
Pew, but chief among them is that young people just aren't settling
down the way they used to.
"This turn of events is fueled primarily by the dramatic drop in the
share of young Americans who are choosing to settle down
romantically before age 35," Fry said in a post on the study.
"Dating back to 1880, the most common living arrangement among
young adults has been living with a romantic partner, whether a
spouse or a significant other. This type of arrangement peaked around
1960, when 62% of the nation's 18- to 34-year-olds were living with a
spouse or partner in their own household, and only one-in-five were
living with their parents."
Fry also noted that some of the difference between men and women
may be driven in part by changes in economic status.
On the one hand, the percentage of young men employed in the
workforce has dropped from its all-time high in 1960, and wages for the
cohort have declined.
Millennials are more likely to live at home than any other young adults in American history
On the other hand, young women have steadily been increasing their employment since that time. So much of
the divergence, Fry said, comes from women delaying cohabitating with a partner because of improved job
prospects for them and declining prospects for men.
Underlying these trends could be a variety of economic factors including student debt, the high cost of first-time
homes, and slower-than-expected wage growth over the past few years. Add those all up and there are more
than a few economic deterrents from getting out of the childhood bedroom.
The study also notes that educational attainment and ethnic or racial background can influence living situations.
For example, those with bachelor's degrees were much more likely to not live at home than those with less
education.
Whatever the reasons, it's clear that more and more young adults are crashing with mom and dad.
14. It’s true: Kids Today are more dependent on their parents than Kids Yesterday.
At least when it comes to housing.
Nearly a third of Americans age 18 to 34 were living with their parents in 2014, according to a new analysis from
the Pew Research Center. That’s the highest share since the Great Depression.
It was also the first time since at least 1880 that young adults were more likely to live in their parents’ homes
than in their own households with a spouse or other romantic partner.
Crusty old pundits will surely declare this a sign of millennials’ failure to launch. They will bemoan young
people’s insistence on mooching off of beleaguered boomer parents rather than going into the real world and
getting their own grown-up jobs, spouses and mortgages. Millennial basement-dwelling — along with millennial
musical tastes, millennial slang and millennial fashions — is thus clear evidence of a generation-wide crisis of
character.
But there are a few reasons all this re-nesting may not be such a bad thing.
For one, consider the macroeconomic and social conditions that today’s young adults face.
Their unemployment (and underemployment) rates remain relatively high, as do their student debt burdens.
Their wages have stagnated.
Young adults want to live on their own and aspire to purchase homes. But homeownership remains out of their
reach. National home prices today are not so far below their pre-recession peaks, with some metro areas even
reaching all-time highs. Meanwhile, rents, too, have skyrocketed, fast outpacing inflation.
Young people are also living with their parents in higher numbers in part because they’re delaying marriage.
This is a consequence of both precarious job prospects and a growing perception that financial security is a
prerequisite to tying the knot — which the vast majority of singles say they still very much want to do.
In this context, swallowing their pride and living with parents rather than frittering away money on rent looks
financially prudent.
Second, the growth of intergenerational households shouldn’t be so alarming given how common this living
arrangement is everywhere else in the developed world. In fact, the share of young adults here who live with
their folks is still relatively low compared with the rate in many of our peer countries.
According to a recent census survey, 42 percent of Canadian adults age 20 to 29 live in their parents’ homes.
Across the European Union, it’s nearly half of young adults age 18 to 34. In Japan, about half of unmarried 20-
to-34-year-olds (dubbed “parasite singles”) live with their parents, too.
But, you cry: American exceptionalism! We don’t want to be like everyone else!
It’s not clear, though, why a society in which young singles live on their own is more desirable than one in which
the same demographic errs on the side of doubling up with relatives. This norm is especially puzzling in the
United States, where for decades the tax code has incentivized home buyers to purchase as much house as
possible, whether or not they need the space.
Perhaps it makes sense to use the housing stock we already have more efficiently, rather than insisting that
young people move out as part of some artificial adulthood milestone.
Of course, boomers may object to bunking up with their boomeranging offspring, even when they have ample
space. Well, boohoo.
Today’s boomers have benefited for decades from huge public intergenerational transfers of wealth. Is it really
so much to ask that they make some much smaller private intergenerational transfers to their own children?
The public infrastructure that boomers have enjoyed all their lives was largely built by their elders. Those who
went to college paid low tuition and received much more generous public subsidies for their schooling. For
decades they have paid tax rates far too low to actually fund the government services they receive. They have
racked up trillions in federal debt and handed the tab to their kids.
Why more millennials than almost ever live at home
By Catherine Rampell, The Washington Post | 6 a.m. May 28, 2016
15. The Housing Market Horror Story Isn’t Over Yet
By David Dayen
The raw numbers show very good times for the U.S. housing market, one of the bulwarks of support for
economic growth. Existing home sales rose for the second straight month in April and are tracking 6
percent above last year. New home sales shot up at their fastest pace in eight years. Housing starts,
building permits and pending home sales — a signal of future growth — are also all increasing at healthy
clips.
It’s enough to make you believe that the housing market has completely left behind the troubles of the
bubble and crash years and is poised to lead the nation into prosperity. But there’s something lurking in
the data, which I first identified in myvery first article at The Fiscal Times two years ago. We don’t have
a housing market, we have two: one for the rich and one for the rest.
First of all, the supply of new and existing homes appears to be shrinking, a natural occurrence given
that sales have risen. We can get out our supply and demand curves and reason that low inventory
inevitably means higher prices. And indeed, the average sales price on a new home in April was
$379,000 (the median price was $321,100, meaning 50 percent of sales were above that number and 50
percent were below).
This is a record in nominal dollars (though if you account for inflation, it’s onlyhalfway up the scale of
the housing bubble). And it reflects a change in the mix of home sales, which you can see in
this quarterly sales chart from the U.S. Census Bureau. Though new homes sales rose from 2013-2015,
sales of homes below $200,000 keep falling. And homes at the higher end, particularly those selling for
$400,000 and over, are rising. According to Bill McBride of Calculated Risk, 30 percent of new homes
sold in 2002 were under $150,000. In April, that number was 2 percent.
It’s clear that builders are making more luxurious homes rather than trying to attract entry-level buyers.
Not only does this maximize their profits, it matches with the consumers most willing to buy homes.
The conventional wisdom on this topic is that lower-income homeowners with subpar credit scores were
being pushed out of the housing market by gun-shy lenders wary of new government regulations. They
“closed the credit box” to newer borrowers, denying Americans their chance at a home. The Urban
Institute estimated in 2014 that 1.2 million borrowers were denied credit from these tighter standards,
and a disproportionate number of those were borrowers of color.
First of all, even the Urban Institute admits that the credit box has loosened in the past two years. Just
this week, both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo started offering mortgages with a skinny 3 percent
down payment.
Second, take a look at this intriguing analysis from Archana Pradhan, an economist with market
research firm CoreLogic. Pradhan looks at the data and finds that the problem is not tighter supply of
mortgage credit, but weaker demand at the low end. The denial rate for loans is actually lower
today than in 2005 and 2006, and the distribution of credit scores for loan applicants has shifted
dramatically. Fewer people with poor credit scores are even bothering to apply for a mortgage. “Self-
sidelining of cautious/discouraged consumers makes it appear as if credit is tightening,” Pradhan writes.
Maybe low credit-score borrowers are discouraged by the expectation of being denied a loan. But I think
two other things are going on. First of all, people don’t have the money. Wages are starting to grow a bit
but have been stagnant for years, and with prices growing, they simply cannot afford a mortgage. This is
especially true among millennials according to the Pew Research Center, for the first time since the
1880s, more young people aged 18-34 are living with a parent than with a spouse or romantic partner.
16. Besides the discouraged borrowers, there are the cautious ones. CoreLogic estimates that 6.2 million
families have lost their homes to foreclosure since September 2008. Practically everyone in the middle
class of this country either experienced the horrors of mortgage defaults, loan modification attempts
and eviction notices or knows somebody who did.
A decade after the housing bubble started to collapse, people remain shattered by foreclosure or
continue to fight for their homes. More than one in three homes valued at $100,000 are still
“underwater,” meaning the borrower owes more than the home is worth. The foreclosure fiasco totally
crushed families, and would-be buyers reasonably look at that mess and opt out.
Low demand for entry-level or modestly priced homes fuels developer desires to maximize profits by
catering to the luxury market, filled with the only people left buying. The whole thing folds on itself,
accelerating the trend of wealthy Americans segregating themselves through housing and pulling away
from everybody else. The most expensive zip codes in America have seen far greater price appreciation
than their lower-income counterparts (this is particularly true when you factor in communities of
color, where prices have stalled out the most). And the biggest factor in that price appreciation is
higher demand: In higher-income areas, more people bid against one another on properties.
This divide has tremendous implications for the country.
First of all, home values remain one of the few ways for lower-income families to gain wealth in
America. If they don’t want or don’t feel they can get a mortgage, we have to find other wealth-building
strategies.
Second, the continuing trend toward the luxury market could create a price spiral that eats away at
affordability, especially if mortgage interest rates rise.
Third, housing groups could continue to push to “open the credit box” when that isn’t the problem,
exposing those vulnerable families willing to buy a home to more risk. And finally, the economy won’t
expand as much if residential housing is a mere playground for the rich.
The situation is far worse in the rental markets, where affordability is at a point of crisis. Maybe more
construction would help, or maybe regulators can generate more confidence that housing isn’t a trap
for the non-rich. Or maybe people just need to have enough money to actually afford a home (which
would help fix rental markets, too, by reducing demand). But until we unlock the keys to reversing this,
and give everyone a shot at an affordable place to live, we cannot claim that the housing market is on
stable footing.
Housing Market cont.
Dr. Chris Thornberg echoed this concern in recent remarks at the
TVCC Economic Summit when he said “It’s great being a liberal in San
Francisco where the people and policies have conspired to increase
the cost of housing to the point where they no longer have to deal
with poor people.”