The document provides an overview and analysis of the Southwest California housing market in 2018 and an outlook for 2019. It notes that 2018 sales were down 12% from 2017 but above forecasts. Median home prices rose 6% in 2018 but price increases slowed in the last quarter. The author expects home sales to decline another 3-4% in 2019 while prices rise 3-5%, with some markets seeing declines. The outlook cites concerns around interest rates, housing supply, and state policies around housing, taxes, and regulations that could negatively impact affordability and the economy.

1. Cloudy and Blurry, or New Normal?
If you’re new to this newsletter, congratulations on your recent campaign victory and welcome to your future.
SRCAR has been distributing this information to our elected representatives and business leaders for the past
decade charting the crash and subsequent recovery of our local housing market. In addition to this monthly
update, you’ll also be receiving a comprehensive demographics report on your city as soon as the update is
available – probably in March. As you have questions on this or any portion of our real estate market, please
don’t hesitate to call me.
So let’s talk about housing. 2018 was not a great year but far from a bad one. We’ve been in a low interest
rate/low inventory situation for so long we’ve forgotten what a ‘normal’ market used to be. For example, we’ve
conveniently forgotten when we were comfortable with 6% - 7% mortgage interest rates. Rates have been
artificially depressed into the 3% range for so long that today’s rates of 4.25% are causing alarm. They shouldn’t.
And next year they’ll likely rise into the 5% - 5.5% range, and that won’t be the end of the world either. However it
does make it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market given the lack of affordable workforce housing.
Lack of supply is the problem, not interest rates.
Similarly we’ve forgotten that a ‘normal’ inventory of homes for sale is a 6-7 month supply. Over the past decade
we’ve had local inventories as low as 3 weeks and only recently increased to 3 months. And for some reason
people are freaking out about it. They shouldn’t. Increased supply is the solution, not the problem.
Properties are staying on the market longer – as long as 40 days in December. For agents accustomed to the
more recent market, the fact that they’re not getting multiple offers at higher than asking price within hours of
listing a home is evidence that the market is collapsing. It’s not. Competitively priced properties are still selling
briskly but nearly 30% of properties in the mls are now selling after a price reduction. Adjust your
expectations in line with reality instead of fantasy and you won’t be disappointed.
Fewer properties sold across our region in 2018 than 2017 – about 12% fewer (11,685 / 10,479). That’s
actually 479 homes more than my mid-year forecast called for so I look at that as a win! But it’s also the fact that
we’re coming off our best sales year in a decade in 2017 that makes this year look worse than it actually is. After
four consecutive years of increasing sales volume, a step back looks scary until you realize a correction is not a
bad thing. As long as it remains just a correction. By the way, condo sales were off 15% (680 / 581) and sales of
luxury homes over $1,000,000 also declined 16% (131 / 110).
If you’re an existing homeowner, median price appreciation remained a bright spot in 2018, though not as
bright as it has been. Median price for the region increased 6% ($351,578 / $374,104), exceeding my mid-year
forecast of 5%. Echoing what’s happening across the state, our higher end markets in Temecula and Murrieta
saw three consecutive months of price declines during the last quarter while more affordable market continued to
increase. Temecula actually saw a median price decline of 5% from December of 2017 ($474,000 / $449,325)
and after posting an average price in excess of $500,000 for the first 11 months of the year, saw that drop to
$489,890 in December. Across the market our region is still some 4.5% below our prior peak average price
point ($405,486 / $387,767) but three cities, Temecula, Wildomar and Menifee all set new record high
averages. It took 11 years to recover what it took 18 months to lose.
So where do we go in 2019? Well there are experts on both sides of the equation from (limited) boom to
(moderate) bust. As usual, I agree with the experts. Home sales across the state fell 3.2% in 2018 and are
forecast to drop another 3.3% in 2019. Sluggish sales will moderate price gains to 3% - 5% with actual declines
in some markets. Most point to underlying strength in our economy albeit with concern for the impact of
weakness in markets from Europe to China, the fear of trade wars, stock market volatility, the Fed, and what the
newly constituted Congress and mega-majority California Legislature will deliver to us.
Meanwhile cloudy and blurry will define our return to the new normal for the next few months.

2. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
I was reminded of this the other day archiving some of my older documents and ran across this opening slide from
a 2010 presentation I did for the state escrow association. With rare exception we are looking at a similar
landscape coming into 2019. We have just had a shift in the political make-up on Capitol Hill, although now it’s a
change from the tea party on the right to socialists on the left. Recent stock market volatility makes 2011 look like
child's play. We are in the midst of a government shut-down over debt and spending priorities. Havoc still defines
the middle-East and both China and Europe are facing severe economic challenges. Oil prices have not spiked but
have taken the opposite tack by plumbing new lows, impacting both state and nation state economies. And we’ve
recently seen major earthquakes in Alaska and tsunami’s in the South Pacific while wildfires rage through California
and climate change debates polarize citizens.
All of these issues play into the bigger picture of where our economy is headed and what that portends for housing
in 2019 and beyond. But the critical issues for us remain what happens in California. Since 2012 it is estimated that
some 13,000 companies have left the state while others have retained a presence here while shifting their
expansion elsewhere. Similarly, middle-class taxpayers have fled the state in ever increasing numbers for the same
reason the corporations left – high taxes, over-regulation, unaffordable housing and increasing crime.
And in the near-term that’s not likely to improve. This is not a political commentary other than to say single party
dominance at the state level has not proven to be good for California. The agenda laid out for 2019 and beyond is
not conducive to improved circumstances for those considering abandoning the state for greener pastures.
Governor Newsom has promised to address the housing crisis by adding 3.3 million new homes over the next five
years but has neglected to tell us how, how much and where. We can’t even replace the 15,000 structure lost to
wildfires this year in a timely, cost-effective manner let alone build 3.3 million new ones.
Meanwhile our housing affordability will take another hit this year as the mandate to include solar systems on every
new home built increases the cost of a home by $10,000 (official estimate – unofficial estimates run to twice that).
But even accepting the $10,000 figure, for every $1,000 the price of a home increases, 6,000 – 7,000 fewer buyers
will qualify for that home. That’s 70,000 fewer buyers for those new homes – even more if you factor in increasing
mortgage interest rates.
Now add the costs for universal healthcare, universal pre-school, continued funding for the bullet train, increased
costs for power, water and fuel, split-roll tax initiatives, attacks on Prop 13, and the push to reduce the vote
threshold for increasing local taxes from 66% to 55%, and you see a picture emerging that is more likely to feed the
beast rather than tame it.
Of course that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.

3. Southwest
California
Reporting
Period
Current
Month
Last
Month Year Ago
Change from
Last Month
Change from
Year Ago
Existing Home Sales
(SFR Detached)
December
2018
720 769 894 6% 19%
Median Home Price $372,364 $371,333 $368,828 - 1%
Unsold Inventory Index
(SFR Units)
2,354 2,703 1,417 13% 40%
Unsold Inventory Index
(Months)
3.3 3.5 1.7 6% 48%
Median Time on
Market (Days)
40.9 33.6 30.2 18% 26%
Source: CRMLS
Some of you are seeing these reports for the first time so I’ll endeavor to point out some helpful hints on
deciphering the numbers in the event you actually read through them instead of just hitting delete.
1. Market at a Glance combines the 9 cities in our region into a single report showing market movement month-
over-month and year-over-year. Median home prices that for most of the year averaged 6% - 7% increases over
previous year, slowed to a single percent increase in December as cities like Temecula and Murrieta charted
declining prices during the last quarter. Inventory fell as fewer people typically list their homes during the
Christmas season but that should start increasing again in February and March.
2. Transaction Price Volume and Median Price Chart indicate the amount of revenue the sale of single family
homes brings to a city – with a percentage of that showing up as tax revenue, school bonds, etc.
3. Annual Charts show the changes in our market over time. Sales were lowest in 2007 while 2009 produced
peak volume across most of the region as investors and first time buyers had a field day as foreclosed homes
flooded the market and prices hit their nadir. In 2009 some 92% of our market was distressed properties
compared to just 2% today. 3 cities hit new average price peaks in 2018!
4. Monthly Sales and Median Price Graphs chart the volume of sales and prices. The vertical black line is where
we stood a year ago while the horizontal colored lines compare current month numbers to that benchmark. You
can see where your city is relative your historic performance.
5. Demand takes a look at how many homes are available, how many sales are pending (a view to next months
sales), what sold, days on market and months inventory. Absorption indicates the ratio of homes sold to new
listings. 100% absorption indicates a neutral market buoyancy with the same number of homes listed as sold.
100%+ means you’re cannibalizing your market and inventory shrinks, 100%- means inventory is growing.
6. Your ‘Average’ House answers the common question of what an average home looks like in your city. Median
price is that point where half the homes sold for more, half for less while average price simply takes the dollar
value of all homes sold divided by the number of homes sold. If the average is higher than the median it means
more high end homes sold and if it’s lower it means more inexpensive homes sold. In most cities those are
closely in balance but Temecula, Murrieta and Canyon Lake typically sell more homes at a higher price.
7. Market Activity by Sales Type shows the volume of standard sales homes to bank owned and short sales. A
decade ago 92% of our market was distressed compared to just 2% today.

4. December 2018 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $53,887,853 Lake Elsinore $34,150,680
Murrieta $56,333,338 Wildomar $9,588,670
Menifee $42,927,285 Canyon Lake $9,178,900
Hemet $30,345,380 San Jacinto $12,234,200
Perris $26,451,134 Total $275,097,440
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
November 2018 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $78,346,586 Lake Elsinore $29,746,965
Murrieta $61,351,565 Wildomar $9,787,730
Menifee $46,833,540 Canyon Lake $8,188,900
Hemet $33,481,599 San Jacinto $14,374,242
Perris $22,075,184 Total $304,186,311
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
December Median Price:
2017 2018 %
Temecula $474,000 $449,325 5%
Murrieta $420,000 $420,000 --%
Menifee $360,000 $360,000 --%
Lake Elsinore $347,000 $377,950 8%
Wildomar $413,000 $422,000 2%
Canyon Lake $490,000 $445,000 8%
Hemet $249,950 $265,000 6%
San Jacinto $272,500 $282,000 4%
Perris $293,000 $330,000 11%

5. $405,486 $253,913 $201,820 $211,726 $205,361 $217,494 $266,755 $299,003 $316,751 $328,990 $369,372 $387,767
48%50%
5,640 12,841 15,835 12,728 11,461 11,556 10,764 9,942 10,916 11,519 11,965 10,479

6. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore
0
50
100
150
200
250
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-15 corridor
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-215 corridor

7. $250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris

8. December Demand
On Market (2,703 – 2,354) 13%
Pending Sales (676 - 560) 17%
Closed (769 - 720) 6%
Days on Market (33.6 – 40.9) 18%
Months Inventory (3.5 – 3.3) 6%
Absorption (79% - 117%) 32%
Month over Month
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18
Inventory Sales Linear (Inventory) Linear (Sales)
Inventory v. Sales
If pending sales are higher than closed,
next month will be good.
If they’re not, well let’s just say January
will not be cheery.

9. Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold % of MKT
Temecula 326 88% 97 88% 7 2% 1 1% 7 2% 0 0%
Murrieta 354 90% 110 88% 4 1% 2 2% 10 3% 2 2%
Wildomar 60 87% 22 96% 1 1% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Lake Elsinore 232 94% 75 91% 4 2% 0 0% 5 2% 3 4%
Menifee 376 94% 119 95% 9 2% 3 2% 7 2% 1 1%
Canyon Lake 86 98% 16 84% 0 0% 1 5% 0 0% 0 0%
Hemet 445 93% 106 94% 5 1% 1 1% 10 2% 0 0%
San Jacinto 147 93% 42 95% 3 2% 1 2% 4 3% 0 0%
Perris 144 94% 74 94% 4 3% 1 1% 3 2% 2 3%
Regional
Average 2170 92% 661 92% 37 2% 10 1% 46 2% 8 1%
December 2018 Market Activity
By Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
City Median Sold $ Average Sold $ Average SqFt Bed Bath YrBlt
Temecula $449,325 $489,890 2,296 4 3 1998
Murrieta $420,000 $450,667 2,411 4 3 2000
Wildomar $422,000 $416,899 2,475 4 3 2000
Lake Elsinore $377,950 $416,472 2,150 4 3 1998
Menifee $360,000 $343,418 1,981 3 2 1995
Canyon Lake $445,000 $483,100 2,207 3 3 1986
Hemet $265,000 $268,543 1,765 4 2 1998
San Jacinto $282,000 $278,050 1,943 4 3 1998
Perris $330,000 $334,824 2,088 3 3 1998
Your 'Average' House, December 2018
By City
Source: CRMLS
I know! These columns don’t add up to 100%. There are actually 9 categories of homes including estate
and probate sales, auctions, HUD sales, etc. I only track the big 3. Now you know.

10. Sales Price
Sales Price Revenue Sales Price Revenue
Temecula 132 $337,935 $44,739,399 188 $318,971 $59,966,520 30% 6%
Murrieta 260 $298,412 $77,587,244 284 $270,633 $76,859,829 8% 9%
Wildomar 0 $0 $0 0 $0 $0
Lake Elsinore 54 $212,648 $11,483,007 53 $221,581 $11,745,775 2% 4%
Menifee 57 $173,403 $9,883,977 60 $157,310 $9,438,600 5% 8%
Cayon Lake 14 $304,743 $4,266,400 16 $311,519 $4,984,300 12% 2%
Hemet 44 $136,759 $6,017,400 42 $114,368 $4,803,440 5% 16%
San Jacinto 15 $140,987 $2,114,800 27 $131,743 $3,557,050 45% 6%
Perris 5 $224,800 $1,124,000 10 $190,080 $1,900,800 50% 15%
581 $203,298.56 $157,216,227 680 $190,689.44 $173,256,314 15% 6%
2018 2017
Southwest California Homes
Condominium Sales
Sales Most Expensive Sales Most Expensive
Temecula 58 $2,500,000 82 $3,400,000
Murrieta 42 $2,324,500 39 $3,150,000
Wildomar 0 $0 0 $0
Lake Elsinore 0 $0 1 $1,150,000
Menifee 1 $1,150,000 0 $0
Cayon Lake 8 $2,900,000 9 $1,500,000
Hemet 1 $1,200,000 0 $0
San Jacinto 0 0 $0
Perris 0 0 $0
110 131
2018 2017
Southwest California Homes
Millon Dollar Plus Club

11. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides up to $350,000 of flood insurance coverage
where required for a federally backed mortgage in 22,000 communities nationwide. It also provides an
alternative to taxpayer-funded disaster assistance, which averages $5,500 per household but more
often means an SBA loan that must repaid with any underlying mortgage. While there is a growing
market for private flood insurance, for many, the NFIP continues to be the primary source of asset
protection against flooding, the most common and costly natural disaster in the United States.
However, as currently structured, the NFIP is not financially sustainable over the long run. According to
the Congressional Budget Office, the program is not charging enough in premiums to cover expected
claims in catastrophic loss years, and has already borrowed over $30 billion from taxpayers to make
up the difference. For these reasons, NAR supports a strengthened NFIP coupled with a robust private
market to offer choices and maintain access to flood insurance in all markets at all times. NAR
believes:
•NFIP reauthorization should be long term.
•Flood mapping should be done at higher resolutions with a streamlined and less expensive appeal
process.
•Premiums should be more accurately priced to the property specific risk, but any rate increases
should be gradual and phased in over many years.
•Private flood insurance options should be encouraged where cost effective, provided that NFIP
remains a viable option for property owners.
•To keep rates affordable, the federal government should also provide pre-disaster risk mitigation
options – including guaranteed loans, grants and buyouts for property owners to build stronger or
relocate to higher ground.
•There should be better oversight and training of insurance companies marketing NFIP policies, and
an adequately supported FEMA Office of the Flood Insurance Advocate to assist policyholders with
flood map and rate disputes.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is the nations leading grassroots
advocacy organization with over 1.3 million members. We routinely lobby for housing
friendly legislation in Washington D.C. including the extension of the National Flood
Insurance Program. Scheduled for renewal on December 21, 2018, this program
became a casualty of the current budget impasse until NAR successfully lobbied for an
emergency extension until May, 2019.
Past experience with NFIP shows that when the program is not in place, over 40,000
transaction fail every month. That includes properties throughout Southwest California
including many in Temecula, Glenoaks Hills, the Wine Country and other areas
designated by outdated FEMA flood maps.

12. HUD ANNOUNCES NEW FHA LOAN LIMITS FOR 2019
Loan limits to increase in more than 3,000 counties
WASHINGTON – The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) today announced the agency's new
schedule of loan limits for 2019, with most areas in the country to experience an increase in loan limits in
the coming year. These loan limits are effective for FHA case numbers assigned on or after January 1,
2019.
•Read FHA’s Mortgagee Letter on 2019 Forward Mortgage Limits.
•Read FHA’s Mortgagee Letter on 2019 Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) Limits.
FHA is required by the National Housing Act, as amended by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of
2008 (HERA), to set Single Family forward loan limits at 115 percent of median house prices, subject to a
floor and a ceiling on the limits. FHA calculates forward mortgage limits by Metropolitan Statistical Area
and county.
In high-cost areas of the country, FHA’s loan limit ceiling will increase to $726,525 from $679,650. FHA will
also increase its floor to $314,827 from $294,515. Additionally, the National Mortgage Limit for FHA-
insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs), or reverse mortgages, will increase to $726,525
from $679,650. FHA’s current regulations implementing the National Housing Act’s HECM limits do not
allow loan limits for reverse mortgages to vary by MSA or county; instead, the single limit applies to all
mortgages regardless of where the property is located.
Due to robust increases in median housing prices and required changes to FHA’s floor and ceiling limits,
which are tied to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)’s increase in the conventional mortgage
loan limit for 2019, the maximum loan limits for FHA forward mortgages will rise in 3,053 counties. In 181
counties, FHA’s loan limits will remain unchanged. By statute, the median home price for a Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) is based on the county within the MSA having the highest median price. It has been
HUD’s long-standing practice to utilize the highest median price point for any year since the enactment of
the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA).
The National Housing Act, as amended by HERA, requires FHA to establish its floor and ceiling loan limits
based on the loan limit set by FHFA for conventional mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac. FHA’s 2019 minimum national loan limit, or floor, of $314,827 is set at 65 percent of the
national conforming loan limit of $484,350. This floor applies to those areas where 115 percent of the
median home price is less than the floor limit.
Any areas where the loan limit exceeds this ‘floor’ is considered a high-cost area, and HERA requires FHA
to set its maximum loan limit ‘ceiling’ for high-cost areas at 150 percent ($726,525) of the national
conforming limit.
Riverside/San Bernardino Counties conforming FHA limits increased to $431,250 in
2019. That helps but also means you can’t buy a median price home in Temecula or
Murrieta with an FHFA conforming loan. That’s part of what contributed to our
problem in 2007-2008 as buyers priced out of the market for conventional loans
increasingly sought out exotic products at lower rates – like 0% or negative
amortization, 0 money down, and no documentation loans (liar loans).
SRCAR continues to lobby HUD/FHFA to recognize market differentials between
Riverside and San Bernardino Counties and to adjust higher limits accordingly.

13. On December 11, 2018, the EPA and Department of the Army signed a proposed rule revising the
definition of "waters of the United States" (WOTUS) to clarify federal authority under the Clean Water
Act in a clear and understandable way. The agencies’ proposal is the second step in a two-step
process to review and revise the definition of “waters of the United States” consistent with the February
2017 Presidential Executive Order entitled “Restoring the Rule of Law, Federalism, and Economic
Growth by Reviewing the ‘Waters of the United States’ Rule.” The proposed definition would replace
the approach in the 2015 Rule and the pre-2015 regulations.
NAR believes this proposed WOTUS replacement rule will bring certainty and consistency to the
permitting and development process, while protecting water quality and property rights. There will be a
sixty-day comment period for the public to provide their perspectives on this proposed rule. NAR will
provide more info on the rule and develop extensive comments. More information is included in the
link below.
https://www.epa.gov/wotus-rule/supplemental-notice-definition-waters-united-states-
recodification-preexisting-rule
Another issue NAR has been fighting since 2015 is the EPA’s deleterious proposal
regarding the ‘Waters of the Unites States’ (WOTUS) rule. This proposal sought to
redefine a ‘navigable waterway’ and extend federal control of your property to include
drainage ditches, irrigation canals, low-lying areas of your property that might fill up in a
heavy rain, and more than a dozen other incursions on your private property rights. The
ruling was held up from general implementation because numerous states filed
injunctions against it and the courts ruled against it.
As with the NFIP, the potential for damaging impact on properties through our region
was significant with individual property owners, farmers, wineries, and businesses
subject to this proposed policy to their detriment and cost.
Now the administration has scrapped the rule and drafted a replacement rule that is
currently under consideration and subject to public input.

14. The Housing Market’s New Normal?
The housing market continued to cool down in December with properties staying on the market for a longer time,
especially in the large markets and 15 percent of listings seeing price reductions, according to a report
by Realtor.com.
The report indicated that while inventory increased by 5 percent across the nation, it rose by 10 percent in the
larger markets in December. While homes sold at a pace of 80 days in December, three days faster than
December 2017, the pace at which they're selling is decelerating. "December 2017 saw homes sell six days faster
compared to the previous year," the report said.
Nineteen of the top 45 metros saw properties spend more time on the market compared to December 2017 and
included real estate in the hot housing markets of San Jose, California; Seattle, Washington; and Nashville,
Tennessee. Homes in these markets spent 14, 10 and six more days on the markets
respectively. In comparison, properties in Birmingham, Alabama; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Richmond, Virginia
sold at the fastest pace at 12, 11, and 10 days respectively.
Even as the median listing price grew 7 percent year-over-year to $289,000 in December, it was lower than the 8
percent listing price seen in December 2017. Despite the lower pricing, listings that saw price reductions increased
to 15 percent in December compared with 13 percent in 2017 as home sellers adjusted their strategies in "slowing,
pricey markets with growing availability of homes for sale."
The report found that some of the largest housing markets in the nation were driving these price reductions with 38
of the 45 top metros seeing an increase in such discounts. Charlotte, North Carolina, topped the list with the share
of price reductions growing by 10 percent, from 14 percent in 2017 to 24 percent in December. It was followed by
San Jose that saw an increase of 10 percent, Tampa (+9 percent), Phoenix (+9 percent), and Seattle (+8 percent).
The steepest declines in median listing prices were seen in San Jose and San Francisco where listing prices
declined by $130,000 and $33,000.
California’s Role in the National Housing Recovery
The housing market has come a long way from its lowest point recorded in 2012, regaining $10.9 trillion in value
over the past six years, according to a study by Zillow.
The market, which was worth a cumulative $33.3 trillion in 2018 is now worth $4 trillion more than what it was at the
peak of the housing bubble, the study revealed. On a year-over-year basis, the market gained $1.9 trillion in value
over 2017.
Of all the markets across the country, one state accounted for nearly one-third of the value gained during the
nationwide housing recovery—California. The report indicated that the housing market in the Golden State grew
by $3.7 trillion since early 2012, making it the only state that gained more than $1 trillion in value since the market
fell.
Despite coming in a close second in terms of dollar contribution to the national housing recovery (a contribution
of $937.9 billion, or 8.6 percent of the overall recovery), "the total value of all the homes in Florida is still $263.9
billion below its peak level," the study indicated.
"Seen from the rearview mirror, 2018 was a year of unusually strong, stable home value growth across the country,"
said Aaron Terrazas, Senior Economist Zillow. "But cracks in the foundation are clearly starting to emerge. During
the second half of the year, appreciation slowed sharply in the priciest corners of the country while it picked up in
affordable hotspots. Periods of stability often precede periods of instability, and the outlook for 2019 is certainly
both cloudier and blurrier than the outlook a year ago."
Breaking down the growth in home values even further, the study stated that the New York/New Jersey area was
the single most valuable metro worth $3 trillion, or 9.1 percent of the national housing market.
Four California markets–Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and San Diego–were among the 10 most valuable
metros in the country.

15. 0.0% MTM
4.4% YTY
-14.8% MTM
-6.3% YTD
14.0% MTM
25.6% YTY
5.9% MTM
24.1% YTY
For SFH Homes
Trends At A Glance For: November 2018
Median Time on Market
36 Days
Home Sales
-9% YTY
Median Price
$400,000
Unsold Inventory
4.9 Months
For SFH Homes
For SFH Homes
For SFH Homes
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research & Economics
Alameda County Market Update
$320,000
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
$420,000
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18
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2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18
525 S. Virgil Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90020 | 213-739-8200 | www.car.org/marketdata| research@car.org
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Riverside County Market Update