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Page 1 | 4/17/19 | | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
How Advanced Data
Analytics Will Transform
Project Controls
EVA24
10 April 2019
Martin Paver
CEO / Founder
www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk
+44 777 570 4044
Page 2 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
ExperienceExperience
Fellow
Chartered Project Professional
Chartered Engineer
Professional Accreditation
Sectors
Project Manager $1bn
Programme Director $0.6bn
Portfolio lead $10bn
Roles
Icon credit: Icons8
Page 3 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
HypothesisHypothesis
1. There are patterns in projects.
2. Some projects are more predisposed to
variance than others.
3. Most of this is foreseeable.
4. Bias can adversely influence decision
making.
5. We can deliver projects with greater
confidence, quicker and cheaper.
We can transform how we deliver projects
Page 4 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
Hypothesis: ExampleHypothesis: Example
Study of 1471
projects
“One in six of the projects we
studied was a black swan, with
a cost overrun of 200%, on
average, and a schedule
overrun of almost 70%” Definition
An event or occurrence that deviates
beyond what is normally expected of a
situation and that would be extremely
difficult to predict.
Were 1:6 projects
affected by
unpredictable
Page 5 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
ContextContext
Its already here!
Page 6 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail
Page 7 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
Exhaust
plume from
project
delivery
An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail
Page 8 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
What Happens to the Data?What Happens to the Data?
Page 9 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
The Challenges ContinueThe Challenges Continue
An increasing need for transparency
Page 10 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
Data Trust: DefinitionData Trust: Definition
In a data trust, the trustors may include individuals and organisations that hold
data. The trustors grant some of the rights they have to control the data to a set
of trustees, who then make decisions about the data – such as who has access
to it and for what purposes.
The beneficiaries of the data trust include those who are provided with access
to the data (such as researchers and developers) and the people who benefit
from what they create from the data.
It is a legal structure that provides independent
stewardship of some data for the benefit of a
group of organisations or people.
Not wholly applicable in
our case. Stewardship
will be by data
providers
Source: https://theodi.org/article/defining-a-data-trust/
Page 11 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
DefinitionsDefinitions
"Project Controls are the data gathering, data
management and analytical processes used to
predict, understand and constructively influence the
time and cost outcomes of a project or programme;
through the communication of information in
formats that assist effective management and
decision making.“ Project Controls Online
"Project Controls are the data gathering, data
management and analytical processes used to
predict, understand and constructively influence the
time and cost outcomes of a project or programme;
through the communication of information in
formats that assist effective management and
decision making.“ Project Controls Online
Project Controls or Data
Analyst/Scientist?
Page 12 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 12 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
The Learning Curve…..The Learning Curve…..
Learning
Curve
Analyst
Or
‘Operative’
Project
Controls
Page 13 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
EVM data
Resourcing
Weather
Supplier performance
Dependencies
Risks etc
Real time
update of
assigned
tasks
WBS
Elements
Scheduling
Corpus and
Context
Extract
Triples
Benchmarking
Adaptive SchedulingRecommendations
SchedulingScheduling
Page 14 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
SchedulingScheduling
Project Controls or Data
Analyst/Scientist?
Question: How critical is domain knowledge?
Templating
Statistical
distribution of out-
turnShortest path
Known
obstacles/challengesExtracting insights from data
trusts
Page 15 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
A once through
process
Risk lifecycle
Leveraging Risk Experience
Connected risks Risks-Issues-Lessons
Informed
risk
registers
Risk
trend
s
Risk mitigations
Risk
budg
et
Systemic Risk
RisksRisks
Page 16 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
P3M Maturity assessmentsP3M Maturity assessments
Audit based vs real time
• Process adherence
• Frequency of update
• Materiality of update
• Quality of inputs
• Correlation with level of experience
Caution: We do not want to create process
monkeys
I want people who
are right most of
the time
• Risk identification
• Risk to issues
• Schedule adherence
• Cost adherence
• Etc….
Forensic analysis on individual and t
performance
Page 17 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 17 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk |
Buying and Deploying Black Box AI
• What is contained within the dataset?
• How relevant is the data?
• How is bias managed and accounted for?
• How was the AI trained?
• How is it validated?
• Governance of decision making: “Computer
said no”
AI will need to guide and inform, but we need
humans in the loop.
Are these humans project controllers or data
scientists?
We must become conversant with these
Page 18 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 18 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk |
Positioning for a New Future
Overall approachData Strategy
Connected Data
Data harvesting
Insights and Lean Predictive Insights
Page 19 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
Project Data Analytics CommunityProject Data Analytics Community
LONDON BRISTOL NORTH-WEST
The UK’s biggest Project Data Analytics
Community founded by
REGIONAL EVENTS
NATIONAL EVENTS
1st meetup Dec
2017
2428 members
ConferencesProject:Ha
ck
Product Demos
1st meetup 2nd April
2019
144 membersHuge
thanks
to our
sponsor
s
Masterclasses
1st meetup 30 April
2019
86 members
In collaboration
with
Page 20 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
Summary: We are Entering a New EraSummary: We are Entering a New Era
• Project Controls is about to experience significant
disruption
• Increasing appetite for predictive and forensic
capabilities
• Project controls training vs data science
• Team and personal performance:
• Process adherence
• Ability to make good decisions
• Securely pooling experience, codified by data
• Evidence based decision making
Page 21 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission
ContactContact
Please find me on Linkedin:
Martin Paver
Martin Paver
CEO / Founder
www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk
+44 777 570 4044
Also follow the
Project Data
Analytics Community

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Martin Paver

  • 1. Page 1 | 4/17/19 | | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk How Advanced Data Analytics Will Transform Project Controls EVA24 10 April 2019 Martin Paver CEO / Founder www.projectingsuccess.co.uk martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk +44 777 570 4044
  • 2. Page 2 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission ExperienceExperience Fellow Chartered Project Professional Chartered Engineer Professional Accreditation Sectors Project Manager $1bn Programme Director $0.6bn Portfolio lead $10bn Roles Icon credit: Icons8
  • 3. Page 3 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission HypothesisHypothesis 1. There are patterns in projects. 2. Some projects are more predisposed to variance than others. 3. Most of this is foreseeable. 4. Bias can adversely influence decision making. 5. We can deliver projects with greater confidence, quicker and cheaper. We can transform how we deliver projects
  • 4. Page 4 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission Hypothesis: ExampleHypothesis: Example Study of 1471 projects “One in six of the projects we studied was a black swan, with a cost overrun of 200%, on average, and a schedule overrun of almost 70%” Definition An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. Were 1:6 projects affected by unpredictable
  • 5. Page 5 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission ContextContext Its already here!
  • 6. Page 6 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail
  • 7. Page 7 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission Exhaust plume from project delivery An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail
  • 8. Page 8 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission What Happens to the Data?What Happens to the Data?
  • 9. Page 9 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission The Challenges ContinueThe Challenges Continue An increasing need for transparency
  • 10. Page 10 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission Data Trust: DefinitionData Trust: Definition In a data trust, the trustors may include individuals and organisations that hold data. The trustors grant some of the rights they have to control the data to a set of trustees, who then make decisions about the data – such as who has access to it and for what purposes. The beneficiaries of the data trust include those who are provided with access to the data (such as researchers and developers) and the people who benefit from what they create from the data. It is a legal structure that provides independent stewardship of some data for the benefit of a group of organisations or people. Not wholly applicable in our case. Stewardship will be by data providers Source: https://theodi.org/article/defining-a-data-trust/
  • 11. Page 11 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission DefinitionsDefinitions "Project Controls are the data gathering, data management and analytical processes used to predict, understand and constructively influence the time and cost outcomes of a project or programme; through the communication of information in formats that assist effective management and decision making.“ Project Controls Online "Project Controls are the data gathering, data management and analytical processes used to predict, understand and constructively influence the time and cost outcomes of a project or programme; through the communication of information in formats that assist effective management and decision making.“ Project Controls Online Project Controls or Data Analyst/Scientist?
  • 12. Page 12 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 12 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk The Learning Curve…..The Learning Curve….. Learning Curve Analyst Or ‘Operative’ Project Controls
  • 13. Page 13 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission EVM data Resourcing Weather Supplier performance Dependencies Risks etc Real time update of assigned tasks WBS Elements Scheduling Corpus and Context Extract Triples Benchmarking Adaptive SchedulingRecommendations SchedulingScheduling
  • 14. Page 14 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission SchedulingScheduling Project Controls or Data Analyst/Scientist? Question: How critical is domain knowledge? Templating Statistical distribution of out- turnShortest path Known obstacles/challengesExtracting insights from data trusts
  • 15. Page 15 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission A once through process Risk lifecycle Leveraging Risk Experience Connected risks Risks-Issues-Lessons Informed risk registers Risk trend s Risk mitigations Risk budg et Systemic Risk RisksRisks
  • 16. Page 16 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission P3M Maturity assessmentsP3M Maturity assessments Audit based vs real time • Process adherence • Frequency of update • Materiality of update • Quality of inputs • Correlation with level of experience Caution: We do not want to create process monkeys I want people who are right most of the time • Risk identification • Risk to issues • Schedule adherence • Cost adherence • Etc…. Forensic analysis on individual and t performance
  • 17. Page 17 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 17 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | Buying and Deploying Black Box AI • What is contained within the dataset? • How relevant is the data? • How is bias managed and accounted for? • How was the AI trained? • How is it validated? • Governance of decision making: “Computer said no” AI will need to guide and inform, but we need humans in the loop. Are these humans project controllers or data scientists? We must become conversant with these
  • 18. Page 18 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permissionPage 18 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | Positioning for a New Future Overall approachData Strategy Connected Data Data harvesting Insights and Lean Predictive Insights
  • 19. Page 19 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission Project Data Analytics CommunityProject Data Analytics Community LONDON BRISTOL NORTH-WEST The UK’s biggest Project Data Analytics Community founded by REGIONAL EVENTS NATIONAL EVENTS 1st meetup Dec 2017 2428 members ConferencesProject:Ha ck Product Demos 1st meetup 2nd April 2019 144 membersHuge thanks to our sponsor s Masterclasses 1st meetup 30 April 2019 86 members In collaboration with
  • 20. Page 20 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission Summary: We are Entering a New EraSummary: We are Entering a New Era • Project Controls is about to experience significant disruption • Increasing appetite for predictive and forensic capabilities • Project controls training vs data science • Team and personal performance: • Process adherence • Ability to make good decisions • Securely pooling experience, codified by data • Evidence based decision making
  • 21. Page 21 | 4/17/19 | www.projectingsuccess.co.uk | © Projecting Success Ltd 2019. Not to be reproduced without permission ContactContact Please find me on Linkedin: Martin Paver Martin Paver CEO / Founder www.projectingsuccess.co.uk martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk +44 777 570 4044 Also follow the Project Data Analytics Community