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Marshall Report 1 Econ 135 Fall 2015
You will need only the data in the comparison.xlsx to complete
this report.
Replicate Figure 1.1. from Siegel for the following four assets:
Stocks (based on S&P 500 Total Return Index)
Government 10 year Bonds
Government Bills
Cash
Note that you are showing the real value of $1 invested in each
asset class from 1946 to 2015, so
this is just a more recent version of Figure 1.1. Be sure to use a
log scale also!
Prepare a separate table summarizing the annualized real return
of each asset over this entire
period, using annual compounding, as discussed in lecture.
(Don’t put the table on the graph like
Seigel does, but follow his convention of presenting the percent
per year with one decimal
value.)
Use your graph and table to address the following questions.
1. Explain how the S&P 500 Total Return Index is different
from the S&P index, and what we
are therefore assuming to get from $1 to the amount you derive
in 2015.
2. Define the equity premium and determine its value over this
period.
3. For each of the four assets, determine the nominal rate of
return � and show that the real rate
of return � is related to the nominal rate by the formula 1 + � =
1+�
1+�
where π is the annual rate of
inflation based on the CPI.
4. Cash is a special asset. Explain the advantages and
disadvantages of holding cash compared to
the other assets.
Price
DataYearDateCPUSAM_CloseTRUSABIM_CloseTRUSG10M_
Close_SPXTRD_Close194512/31/194518.2124.7377215.012141
62.9371946194612/31/194621.5125.2126215.83265262.6969206
194712/31/194723.4125.9869212.82752912.8382415194812/31/
194824.1127.3235218.63084552.9829645194912/31/194923.612
8.7515229.41610973.521831195012/31/195025130.3213226.262
65714.5987771195112/31/195126.5132.3502225.00849915.7279
092195212/31/195226.7134.6603229.24540386.7876335195312/
31/195326.9137.1739234.33167826.713057195412/31/195426.7
138.4458241.716563710.2309499195512/31/195526.8140.93842
38.985092513.4464101195612/31/195627.6144.6937232.569088
514.3375005195712/31/195728.4149.4333246.337731312.78137
99195812/31/195828.9151.9932241.144206518.3213981195912/
31/195929.4157.2773238.418533720.5024572196012/31/196029
.8161.7014266.225726920.6014928196112/31/196130165.58382
71.811007626.1250431196212/31/196230.4170.2575287.631735
323.8302102196312/31/196330.9175.7498292.367357329.23758
66196412/31/196431.2182.1111303.117822634.0201508196512/
31/196531.8189.4975305.309287538.2236182196612/31/196632
.9198.8654321.948896234.3612885196712/31/196733.9207.602
5312.010094442.5882308196812/31/196835.5219.0074331.5606
8847.2739305196912/31/196937.7234.1144312.874779243.2719
299197012/31/197039.8249.3211372.063648444.996607319711
2/31/197141.1260.2036413.879054951.4425812197212/31/1972
42.5271.214423.750294661.1835476197312/31/197346.2290.98
3437.874330352.1337402197412/31/197451.9314.2453455.7808
23738.2980073197512/31/197555.5332.6904481.387825852.564
0195197612/31/197658.2349.5488554.786414965.00834271977
12/31/197762.1368.6106558.43974260.2055422197812/31/1978
67.7396.7713554.142134564.082723197912/31/197976.7438.68
59564.800378375.8437676198012/31/198086.3491.7794558.742
2438100.3158824198112/31/198194563.5617589.768568795.24
69162198212/31/198297.6625.2067821.5991773115.709087198
312/31/1983101.3681.4379843.3115598141.7432587198412/31/
1984105.3748.8751969.9124013150.4637031198512/31/198510
9.3806.61711257.213784198.0818463198612/31/1986110.5855.
73431524.826122234.9318738198712/31/1987115.4906.023214
91.027037247.0799963198812/31/1988120.5968.88821595.6494
48288.116198912/31/1989126.11050.62571879.483718379.4091
99012/31/1990133.81131.41912027.553979367.631199112/31/1
991137.91192.83092407.819313479.633199212/31/1992141.912
34.36272587.153881516.178199312/31/1993145.81271.7802292
3.373837568.202199412/31/1994149.71327.55412709.25809957
5.705199512/31/1995153.51401.97293412.12823792.042199612
/31/1996158.61473.98183416.603331973.897199712/31/199716
1.31550.48673827.3835351298.821199812/31/1998163.91625.7
7234380.5368711670.006199912/31/1999168.31703.83674051.5
715952021.401200012/31/20001741805.74794749.110961837.3
65200112/31/2001176.71865.8515011.9524021618.979200212/3
1/2002180.91895.835782.4700441261.176200312/31/2003184.3
1915.28895808.9302671622.939200412/31/2004190.31942.7111
6076.7126091799.548200512/31/2005196.82006.9136264.39134
61887.931200612/31/2006201.82106.5804296402.5424512186.1
3200712/31/2007210.0362201.8706827077.4531172306.232008
12/31/2008210.2282229.2518509.138941452.98200912/31/2009
215.9492232.5977701.0107151837.49201012/31/2010219.17922
35.7998260.3008192114.29201112/31/2011225.6722237.066965
5.4037862158.9399201212/31/2012229.6012238.9319923.02825
04.44201312/31/2013233.0492240.0889074.073315.59201412/3
1/2014234.8122240.77910048.523769.44
Data InformationTickerNameSeries
TypeCurrencyCountryUnitsScaleFlowAdjustmentCorporate_Hist
oryData NotesCPUSAMUnited States BLS Consumer Price
Index NSAConsumer Price IndicesUnited States DollarUnited
StatesIndex NumberUnitsStocknoneTRUSABIMUSA Total
Return T-Bill IndexTotal Return Indices - BillsUnited States
DollarUnited StatesIndex
NumberUnitsStocknoneTRUSG10MUSA 10-year Government
Bond Total Return IndexTotal Return Indices - BondsUnited
States DollarUnited StatesIndex
NumberUnitsStocknone_SPXTRDS&P 500 Total Return Index
(w/GFD extension)Total Return Indices - StocksUnited States
DollarUnited StatesIndex NumberUnitsStocknoneSplit adjusted.
Marshall Report 1  Econ 135 Fall 2015 You will need only.docx

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