Beyond the Solar Module: Optimizing system performance and maximizing returns - MaRS Market Insights Series

Thinking
Outside
the
Module

for
MaRS
Discovery
District

Matt
Feinstein,
Analyst

Lux
Research,
Inc.

July
2011

Lux
Research

!  We
help
clients
capitalize
on
science-‐driven
innovation

!  We
focus
on
emerging
technologies
in
the
chemicals
and

materials
sector
and
the
energy
and
environment
sector

(cleantech)

!  We
have
practices
in
China
Innovation,
Water,
Printed

Electronics,
Green
Buildings,
Advanced
Materials,
China

Innovation,
Solar
Components,
Solar
Systems,
Smart
Grid

&
Grid
Storage,
Electric
Vehicles,
Alternative
Fuels,
Bio-‐
based
Chemicals
&
Materials,
and
Targeted
Delivery.
Suntech
solar

!  We
have
clients
on
six
continents
–
blue-‐chip
corporations,
factory,
China
Qatar
Science
and

Technology
Park

government
agencies
and
laboratories,
universities,
investors,

and
SMBs

!  We
source
our
intelligence
from
direct
interaction
with
CEOs,

CTOs,
CSOs,
and
R&D
execs
at
cutting-‐edge
technology
ﬁrms

in
our
sectors
of
focus

!  We
draw
on
our
network
to:
Svalbard
Global

•  Continuously
monitor
emerging
technologies
Seed
Vault,
Norway

•  Identify
discontinuities
in
technology
commercialization

•  Assist
with
company
and
technology
evaluation

!  We
have
global
reach,
with
over
50
employees
in
Boston,
New

York,
Singapore,
Shanghai
and
Amsterdam

!  Research
team
is
67%
scientists,
33%
business
analysts

3

Agenda

!   Why
inverters
have
their
time
in
the
spotlight

!   System
characteristics
diﬀer
by
market
segment
–
and
dictate
product

requirements

!   A
competitive
landscape
crowded
by
hype-‐driven
start-‐ups

4

Agenda

!   Why
inverters
have
their
time
in
the
spotlight

5

Inverters
are
critical
to
system
cost
and
performance

!   Inverters
are
the
highest
single
cost
in
a
system
other
than
the
module

!   Installers
cite
power
electronics
in
the
majority
(60%
to
80%)
of
system

failures,
or
problems
requiring
maintenance

!   Compromising
cost,
performance,
or
reliability
make
the
ideal
inverter
a

pipe
dream

!   Start-‐ups
have
caught
the
eye
of
the
venture
capital
space

6

Power
optimizers
add
an
adjacent
wrinkle

!   Positioned
at
the
module
or
string
level

!   Perform
maximum
power
point
tracking
(MPPT)

!   Usually
also
possess
safety
features
to
prevent
array
ﬁres

!   Several
module-‐level
power
optimizer
companies
are
integrating
into
the

junction
box

7

The
way
things
are

!   Centralized
power
management
vs.
Module-‐level
power
management

8

Agenda

!   Why
inverters
have
their
time
in
the
spotlight

!   System
characteristics
diﬀer
by
market
segment
–
and
dictate
product

requirements

9

System
variations
result
in
differing
needs

RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
UTILITY-‐SCALE

• 
1
kW
to
10
kW
in
• 
10
kW
to
1
MW
in
size

• 
1
MW+

size

• OJen
on
flat
roofs
• 
Usually
in
remote

• OJen
on
pitched
• 
More
variability
in
locaOons;
not
subject

roofs
shading
profile
to
shading,
but
dirt/
• 
Subject
to
shading
• 
Performance
sand
may
be
blown

• 
Low-‐cost
is
key
predictability
not
onto
panels

• 
Customer
likely
not
criOcal
–
but
generally
• 
Technology
selecOon

well-‐informed
important;
energy
oJen
dictated
by

• 
Performance
harvest
guarantees
may
financiers
–
bankable

predictability
not
be
in
place
soluOons

criOcal
• 
Wide
system
size
• 
Performance

range
accompanies
high
predictability
is
criOcal

uncertainty

10

Key
issues
pertaining
to
cost,
performance,
and

reliability

!   Levelized
cost
of
electricity
(LCOE;
$/kWh)
is
the
most
telling
cost
metric

!   System-‐level
performance
factor
accounts
for
added
energy
harvest
and

uptime

!   Grid-‐friendly
features,
or
compatibility
with
the
Smart
Grid

!   Component
substitutions/eliminations;
cooling
mechanisms

•  Transformers

-  Regulations
are
the
concern

•  Capacitors

-  Electrolytic
vs.
thin-‐ﬁlm

-  “The
weak
link”

11

Contrasting
performance
in
commercial
systems

12

Contrasting
LCOE
in
commercial
systems

13

Reliability
is
broad
–
and
difficult
to
communicate

!   Warranties
are
a
function
of
financial
risk
–
and
full
of
legal
nuance

!   Mean
time
between
failures,
failure
rates,
etc.

!   Few
metrics
(if
any)
account
for
the
different
number
of
devices
required

14

Agenda

!   Why
inverters
have
their
time
in
the
spotlight

!   System
characteristics
diﬀer
by
market
segment
–
and
dictate
product

requirements

!   A
competitive
landscape
crowded
by
hype-‐driven
start-‐ups

15

The
ﬁeld
of
start-‐ups
is
blurry

!   The
burden
of
proof

16

The
way
things
are

!   Centralized
power
management
vs.
Module-‐level
power
management

17

Outlook

!   Don’t
believe
the
microinverter
hype…mostly

!   A
Darwinian
market
emerges

!   Multiple-‐sourcing
continues
to
rule

!   Reliability
will
remain
the
hot
issue

!   The
wild
card
is…

18

Questions?

Matt
Feinstein

Analyst

matthew.feinstein@luxresearchinc.com

19

SOLAR ENERGY SERVICES AS RELIABLE AS THE SUN

MaRS Market Insight:
Beyond the Solar Module: Optimizing System Performance & Maximizing Returns

Oleg Popovsky July 20th 2011
Manager, Sales & Bus. Development
Sun Edison Services, Inc. - confidential & proprietary. Do not redistribute.

Solar Investors / Developers / Hosts / Integrators

  How to increase returns from solar
energy?

  How to verify performance data?

  How to ensure / increase
bankability?

  How to lower operational risks?

  How to protect asset longevity?


SunEdison Solar Services

  Our Mission:
Make solar energy a meaningful source of energy by
  Increasing power plant production
  Increasing financial benefits to our customers
  Impacting both the environment & local economy

  We commission, monitor, maintain, operate solar PV power plants globally

  North America: 520 plants / 188MW
  EMEA 31 plants / 129MW
  Asia: 8 plant / 1MW
  Largest plant: 71MW
  Average plant: 330kW
  Smallest plant: 16kW
  Solar Energy Generated & Monitoring:
  Surpassed 600,000,000 kWh of solar energy
*: Data as of 6/30/11
**: Customers can call 24/7 service – during after hours Services, Inc. isconfidentialin proprietary. Do not redistribute. is needed.
Sun Edison ROC staff - on-call & case immediate attention 22

Examples of plants we manage
A diverse portfolio of plant configurations, sizes and technologies

72 MW - Rovigo, Italy. Kohl’s - 409 KW - Laguna Nigel, CA 8.2 MW - Alamosa, CO
Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground mount. Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, roof mount. Crystalline panels, fixed, one-axis &
Largest being built in Europe. dual-axis trackers, ground mount.

Duke Energy- 3.9 MW – Cotton Grove, NC
City of San Diego - 1.1 MW - San Diego, CA Staples - 486 KW - Killingly, CT
Crystalline panels, one axis, ground mount.
Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground-mount Thin film panels, fixed tilt, roof mount.
on steel.


Solar Monitoring
  SEEDS™ revenue-grade monitoring platform (Hardware)
  Renewable Operations Center (Service)
  Online monitoring portal “Client Connect” (Portal)

Solar Operations & Maintenance
  Site Quality Inspection
  Preventative maintenance and outage response
  Cleaning and vegetation control


Solar Monitoring Objective: OPR

OPR (Operating Performance Ratio): solar plant performance – simplified
  OPR = Energy produced / Energy expected to be produced given actual insulation &
temperature conditions measured on-site.


SEEDS™ monitoring platform
Main hardware components

Component Function

SEEDS™ gateway Collect and store data from meters, weather
stations, inverters, combiners, trackers, etc.

Electric meter Measure energy, power, reactive power, voltage,
current, frequency, etc.

SEEDS™ weather station Measure irradiance, cell temperature, ambient
temperature, wind speed, etc.

Modem Connect the SEEDS™ Gateway to our data center.
Cellular, broadband or satellite may be used.

Ethernet or fiber switch Enable local communication between all the
devices on-site and the SEEDS™ Gateway.

Enclosure Protect SEEDS™ Gateways, modems and
switches from the elements.


Renewable Operations Center (ROC)
Tracking and increasing solar plant performance

Commissioning:
  Commission Monitoring Systems
  Validate system performance
  Prepare reports for Independent
Engineers & Technical Advisor firm.

Power plant monitoring and alerting:
  Detect & diagnose outages
  Identify underperformance
  Contact owners / operators

Service dispatch and management: Analysis:
  Create & manage service tickets   Fleet / portfolio performance
  Dispatch service crews   Performance by technology
  Confirm problem resolution   Soiling analysis


Client Connect - online monitoring portal
Essential PV data at your fingertips

Real-time, auditable solar production Gain transparency into FIT revenue from solar
monitoring in 15-minute intervals

Portfolio management to track solar assets by Performance metrics measure environmental impact
geography

Sun Edison Services, Inc. - confidential & proprietary. Do not redistribute. 28

Solar Monitoring
  SEEDS™ revenue-grade monitoring platform
  Renewable Operations Center
  Online monitoring portal “Client Connect”

Solar Operations & Maintenance
  Site Quality Inspection
  Preventative maintenance and outage response
  Cleaning and vegetation control


O&M: Key to maximizing on-going solar revenue

Goal: Increase returns by driving
production
Keys to maintaining system performance
  Semi-annual system cleaning
  Semi-annual mechanical/electrical checks
  Solar monitoring and analysis to analyze production,
diagnose problems and ensure timely repair
  Preventative maintenance and repair
–  inverter maintenance
–  thermal imaging of power conditioning components
–  dispatch of local repair services as needed
  Product operation & maintenance to ensure warranties
are upheld


Preventative maintenance
Array, inverters, trackers, combiners, racking, wiring…

  Mechanical PM
  13 checklist items
  2x per year recommended

  Electrical & inverter PM

  Tracker PM


Cleaning & vegetation control
Increasing production and protecting asset longevity

  Cleaning can increase production by 30%

  Solar systems can suffer production losses (shading) and permanent
damage from vegetation if unattended

Not a SunEdison Installation


SunEdison Services: Trusted by financial institutions


Unique expertise with leading commercial
clients


Looking to maximize your solar returns?

Contact Us for More Details!
Oleg Popovsky
Sales Manager, SunEdison Canada
416-262-7022
opopovsky@sunedison.com

Thank you!


Connecting PV to the Grid:
Ontario Market Update

MaRS Market Insights

July 20, 2011

www.navigantconsulting.com

Table of Contents

1 Overview of Navigant

2 Background

3 What’s Happening

4 One Potential Opportunity

©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd. 37

Introduction: Navigant Consulting

Navigant Consulting is a specialized consulting firm and global leader in
renewable energy technology and strategy.
NCI Energy Practice Renewable Energy
(1,900 Consultants) (250 Consultants) (60 Consultants)
•  Publicly traded •  Power Systems, Markets Professionals
since 1996 and Pricing •  60 staff with over 25 years
(NYSE: NCI) •  Business Planning and experience in RE
•  2011 revenues - Performance •  Exceptional depth and
$707 million US Improvement breadth of market &
•  40 offices in four •  Emerging Technologies technology expertise
countries and Energy Efficiency •  Recognized thought
leaders committed to RE

Navigant Consulting Global Practice
named "Best Advisory •  Over 150 RE
– engagements worldwide in
last 3 yrs
Renewable Energy"
•  Public and private sector
in the 9th and 10th clients in over 10 countries
Annual Environmental
Finance and Carbon
©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd.
Finance Market
3
Survey
8

Introduction: PV, Wind, Biomass and other Renewable Energy Service Offering

For PV, wind, biomass and other clean and renewable energy sources, we serve
financial investors, utilities, private companies and governments in due diligence,
corporate strategy and policy.
Clients and Service Offerings
Financial Private Government /
Utilities
Investors Corporations Agencies
•  Project due •  New business •  Corporate •  Policy support
diligence models strategy •  Procurement
•  Manufacturing •  Entry strategy •  Profit pool and support
due diligence •  Technology and value chain •  Public funding
•  Risk analysis market analyses opportunities
•  Market analysis/ assessments •  Mergers and •  Program design
due diligence •  Renewable acquisitions •  Economic
•  Management program development
team due development/ support
diligence implementation
•  RPS compliance



2 Background




Background

Tremendous response to OPA FIT program has created generation
connection capacity constraints across Ontario
•  Ontario transmission and distribution system designed to deliver electricity
from central generation plants to customers
•  Tremendous response to FIT program has put new stresses on system that
were not foreseen when system was designed and constructed
•  Given its expansive service territory and suitability for wind and PV, Hydro
One received significant portion of connection requests
•  Given the topology of Ontario’s electricity system, constraints on Hydro One
transmission and distribution network can cascade down to Local Distribution
Companies (LDCs)

Confidential and Proprietary, ©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd. 41
Do not distribute or copy

Current Situation: Available Connection Capacity

There are three primary system constraints; in simple terms the available
capacity is driven by the most restrictive of these constraints
Es*mated
available
connec*on
capacity
on
en*re
Hydro
One
system*

Short
Circuit
Capacity
reﬂects
how
much
fault
current
the
various

Thermal
Capacity
reﬂects
system
components
(eg,
circuit
breakers,
etc.)
can
handle

how
much
current
the

wires
can
carry
Reduces
connec*on
capacity
by
~9,000
MW

Minimum
Load
is
generally
driven

by
transformers
than
cannot
“run

backwards”
(eg,
supplying
power

upstream
instead
of
downstream)

Reduces
capacity
by

~5,000
MW

NB.
Other
constraints
and

conOngency
consideraOons

would
likely
reduce
this

capacity
further

* Navigant estimate based on information from Hydro One website, does not
reflect network topology effects

Current Situation: Available Connection Capacity versus Connect Requests

The generation capacity wanting to connect significantly exceeds the
available connection capacity on the system
Available
connec*on
capacity

vs.
connec*on
capacity
requested

* Navigant estimate based on information from Hydro One and OPA website



2 Background




What’s Happening

Hydro One and industry are working collaboratively to better understand
and address the constraints
•  Hydro One and CanSIA have established a Working Group and have jointly retained a
consultant to explore contribution of PV to short circuit levels. Inverter manufacturers are
also involved
•  Hydro One is said to be revisiting its “7% rule” (microFIT DG cannot exceed 7% of
maximum load) and will be releasing its findings shortly
—  This rule reflects Hydro One’s interpretation of an IEEE standard and provides a safe
uniform level for application across Hydro One network
—  Going beyond “safe uniform level” would require tremendous resources and detailed
local information, neither of which are readily available
•  CanSIA has proposed an inverter workshop so all parties can better understand the
performance characteristics of inverters
—  Proposed testing of inverters under different circumstances
•  Growing recognition of high voltage issues and impacts on inverter operation

Industry
knows
more
now
than
it
did
a
year
ago;
will
know
even
more
a
year
from
now

It’s
very
complicated!



2 Background




Potential Opportunity: Coincidence of PV Output and Feeder/Transformer Loading

Minimum load constraints reflect inability of many Hydro One
transformers to handle “reverse flow”. But, PV output is generally lowest
at times of minimum load
Illustra*ve
bus
loading
vs.
PV
output
(spring
day)



The “7% Rule” (PV = 7% of maximum feeder loader) provides a
significant safety margin against reverse flow

Dura*on
curve
of
bus
loading
vs.
simultaneous
PV
output
(@7%

of
peak)
over
full
year
(8760
hours)

PV
output
always
signiﬁcantly
less

than
load
even
in
low
demand

periods
for
this
par*cular
bus



8-fold increase in PV capacity to 56% of maximum feeder loader would
result in some reverse flow hours, but not many
Dura*on
curve
of
bus
loading
vs.
simultaneous
PV
output

(@56%
of
peak)
over
full
year
(8760
hours)

PV
output
exceeds
load
for
only

28
hours
in
en*re
year

For
this
bus,
28
MW
increase
in
PV
capacity
could
be
enabled
through
“Smart
Grid”

technology
that

1)
monitors
load
and
PV
output,
and
2)
controls
PV
connecBon
to
eliminate
reverse

ﬂow
as
necessary

How
much
would
you
be
willing
to
pay
49 this
allowed
you
to
connect
your
project?

Confidential and Proprietary, ©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd. if


Conclusions

•  Tremendous response to OPA FIT program has created generation connection
capacity constraints across Ontario
•  Available connection capacity is driven by the most restrictive of several
constraints (thermal, short circuit, minimum load and others)
•  The capacity of the generation wanting to connect significantly exceeds the
available connection capacity on the system
•  Hydro One and industry are working collaboratively to better understand and
address the constraints
•  Many opportunities for “smart” solutions to enable connections beyond “safe
uniform” level, but solutions need to be bulletproof

It’s
very
complicated!


Connecting PV to the Grid:
Ontario Market Update

Questions?

www.navigantconsulting.com

Contact Information

Todd Williams
Managing Director
Direct: 647-288-5204
Cell: 613-544-7941
E-mail: twilliams@navigant.com
1 Adelaide Street East, Suite 3000
Toronto, Ontario M5C 2V9


Download the report: www.marsdd.com/news-insights/mars-reports/

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