Central bank policies have pushed interest rates lower globally, with over $13 trillion of debt outside the US carrying negative yields. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further in 2019. With yields near historic lows, investors continue searching for safety, income, and higher returns, which has led some to take on more risk. Remaining flexible may allow capturing unique returns in areas like private credit.
Bonds, Interest rates, and the Impact of InflationDolf Dunn
Bonds have had their 30+ year bull run, now it is time to pay close attention to the bonds you own. For decades, most people’s bond portfolios were just on autopilot, this will get you hurt going forward. Please read on..
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Bonds, Interest rates, and the Impact of InflationDolf Dunn
Since May, interest rates on bonds have drifted upwards and values have declined. Investing in bonds can no longer be left on auto-pilot. Please read on...
Bonds, Interest rates, and the Impact of InflationDolf Dunn
Bonds have had their 30+ year bull run, now it is time to pay close attention to the bonds you own. For decades, most people’s bond portfolios were just on autopilot, this will get you hurt going forward. Please read on..
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Bonds, Interest rates, and the Impact of InflationDolf Dunn
Since May, interest rates on bonds have drifted upwards and values have declined. Investing in bonds can no longer be left on auto-pilot. Please read on...
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project, available at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital, is the first comprehensive and simultaneous investigation of the major private capital market segments. The initial research survey examined the behavior of the private capital market participants, investment types, expected and historical rates of return, financial ratio thresholds, coupon rate distributions and other investment characteristics.
There is a lot of apprehensions associated with inverted yield curves and for good reason. From a macro-economic perspective, an inverted yield curve predicts poor economic
performances shortly. This is the reason why in August 2019 when a yield curve inversion was reported in the United States, the term recession was the most searched on Google in the country (Mendez-Carbajo, 2019). The two concepts are often related because, an inverted yield curve, more often than not, leads to a recession.
Compared to equities, bonds at first glance can appear like a throwback to your grandparent's days, but this month we take a look at how bonds may help mitigate risk, and the role they play in a well-diversified portfolio.
Lately, there's been a lot of focus on the Fed and the potential for tapering. In today's Topic Talks, NEPC's Jennifer Appel breaks down the Federal Reserve's toolbox, the basics of quantitative easing, how tapering works, and what it could mean for capital markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project, available at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital, is the first comprehensive and simultaneous investigation of the major private capital market segments. The initial research survey examined the behavior of the private capital market participants, investment types, expected and historical rates of return, financial ratio thresholds, coupon rate distributions and other investment characteristics.
There is a lot of apprehensions associated with inverted yield curves and for good reason. From a macro-economic perspective, an inverted yield curve predicts poor economic
performances shortly. This is the reason why in August 2019 when a yield curve inversion was reported in the United States, the term recession was the most searched on Google in the country (Mendez-Carbajo, 2019). The two concepts are often related because, an inverted yield curve, more often than not, leads to a recession.
Compared to equities, bonds at first glance can appear like a throwback to your grandparent's days, but this month we take a look at how bonds may help mitigate risk, and the role they play in a well-diversified portfolio.
Lately, there's been a lot of focus on the Fed and the potential for tapering. In today's Topic Talks, NEPC's Jennifer Appel breaks down the Federal Reserve's toolbox, the basics of quantitative easing, how tapering works, and what it could mean for capital markets.
Global bond markets fell in May and June, as investors contemplated the end of massive liquidity from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The fund’s overweight exposure to the strengthening U.S. dollar aided performance during the quarter, as did our holdings of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Our mortgage credit holdings and our allocation to high-yield bonds generated positive returns early in the period before investors began to shed risk in May, but the positions remained positive overall for the quarter. We have a generally positive outlook for global economic growth and are seeking to capitalize on opportunities in spread sectors exhibiting improved relative value.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Agcapita July 2013 - Central Banking's Scylla and CharybdisVeripath Partners
While I believe that eliminating QE is the right thing to do for the long-term health of the economy, the recent equity and bond market declines are but modest harbingers of the unintended short-term consequences that the Fed’s prolonged ZIRP/QE program and its termination will wreak – rollover and convexity risk. These are the proverbial pigeons that will come home to roost if the US Federal Reserve stops its massive bond-buying spree and rates normalize.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
1. Market Perspectives – September 2019
Experience Insight Impact
Overview: Market participants remain focused on interest rates as wild gyrations continue to
occur. While we have discussed the current rate environment multiple times over the past year,
it is worth revisiting where things stand considering the significant amount of global debt
currently sitting with negative yields, as well as the recent dramatic volatility.
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2. 10-Year Yields
Experience Insight Impact 2
As of September 16, 2019, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding 1.83%. In general, yields around the
world are significantly lower than in the U.S. (and in many cases, negative) primarily due to more
accommodative central bank policy coupled with stubbornly low inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
3. 10-Year Yields
Experience Insight Impact 3
Over the past 2 years, the 10-Year Treasury has seen an unusual move from multi-year highs of
3.24% to below 1.5% (close to the lows since the financial crisis). Even with the sharp upward
yield move in September, the levels remain near historical lows.
Source: Bloomberg
4. Future Expectations Continue to Change
Experience Insight Impact 4
A 25 basis point rate cut during the September meeting on 9/18/19 seems to be a virtual certainty, with the market
expecting several additional cuts over the next year. The timing is somewhat less certain than it was a few weeks
ago. Nonetheless, one year out, the market expects the Fed will have reduced the target rate by more than 50 bps
from where it is today.
Source: Bloomberg
5. Global Central Banks
Experience Insight Impact 5
Central Bank policy generally focuses on short term securities, often referred to as the short end of the curve. The Federal Reserve
(white), the Bank of England (yellow), the ECB (blue), and the Bank of Japan (pink) all remain highly accommodative, although the Fed
has been more aggressive in the past few years with regards to raising rates. These policies have insured that liquidity remains high for
investors.
Source: Bloomberg
6. Global Negative Yields
Experience Insight Impact 6
Even with the recent rise in interest rates, a staggering $13.4 trillion of debt outside of the U.S. has a negative yield. The search for
yield and higher-yielding investment vehicles remains a major focus for investors.
NOTE: The concept of a negative yielding bond implies that an investor pays more for the bond than they will receive in income plus principle at maturity,
locking in a loss. Investors are currently willing to do this because of the reliability, liquidity and safety that high quality government and corporate bonds
provide, and that investors such as pension funds, insurers and others require. (source: Bloomberg “The Unstoppable Surge in Negative Yields Reaches $17 Trillion”, 8/30/19)
Source: Bloomberg
7. Market Perspective - September 2019
Experience Insight Impact
Conclusion: Unquestionably, central banks around the globe have distorted the fixed income
landscape. With yields near historical lows, the search for safety and income has driven some
investors to take additional risks, including purchasing very low or even negative yielding
securities. Remaining flexible may allow investors to capture unique, risk-adjusted returns in
areas such as private credit.
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8. Disclaimer
Experience Insight Impact
Opinions expressed in this commentary may change as conditions warrant and are for
informational purposes only. Information contained herein is not intended to be personal
investment advice for any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information
sources that we believe to be reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy of those sources. Past
performance is no guarantee of future performance; investing involves risk and may result in loss
of capital. No graph, chart, formula or other device can, in and of itself, be used to determine
which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell such securities, or can assist persons in
making those decisions. Consider seeking advice from a professional before implementing any
investing strategy.
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