This document discusses managing using intuition and rules of thumb. It provides examples of how managers can use intuition, as discussed by Malcolm Gladwell, to make instant conclusions. It also gives numerous "rules of thumb" used by successful managers over time to guide decisions when facts are lacking. These rules of thumb cover topics like communication, hiring, team performance, and managing people. The document advocates that good managers rely on both intuition developed from experience as well as borrowing wisdom from rules of thumb to help make decisions.

1. Managing
using
Intui+on
and
Rules
of
Thumb
Mickey
W.
Mantle
May
2,
2013

2. Two
Books

3. Intui+on

4. Rules
of
Thumb

5. Managing
–
an
audience
survey
• Everyone
who
is
a
manager,
please
stand
• Please
sit
if
you
have
never
had
any
management
training
• Please
sit
if
your
management
training
was
acquired
aIer
you
began
managing
people
• Those
who
remain
standing
actually
had
some
management
training
before
they
started
managing
people

6. Managing,
A
Defini+on
managing
programmers
–
making
sure
the
right
stuff
happens!

7. Using
Intui+on

8. Audience
Survey
• Those
who
use
intui+on
oIen
(at
least
daily)
in
managing
others
please
raise
your
hand

9. Malcolm
Gladwell1
1Source:
gladwell.com/blink

10. Example
Cited
by
Gladwell

11. Nega+ve
Example
Cited
by
Gladwell

12. Instant
Conclusions
• Intui+on,
or
Gladwell’s
instant
conclusions,
can
be
very
important
to
the
success
of
a
manager
and
leader
• Intui+on
can
be
improved
using
Gladwell’s
techniques
• Decisions
have
to
be
made,
oIen
without
enough
facts
to
support
a
decision
• A
great
manager
relies
upon
his
experience
and
intui+on
to
bridge
the
gap
between
facts
and
making
the
right
decision

13. Using
Rules
of
Thumb

14. Rule
of
Thumb
• A
general
guideline,
rather
than
a
strict
rule;
an
approximate
measure
or
means
of
reckoning
based
on
experience
or
common
knowledge
• A
way
to
borrow
experience
in
a
concise
fashion

15. Example
Rules
of
Thumb
• A
s+tch
in
+me,
saves
nine
• If
it
ain’t
broke,
don’t
fix
it
• For
any
soIware
project,
it
will
likely
take
twice
as
long
and
cost
twice
as
much
as
you
originally
es+mate
to
really
finish
the
project

16. Audience
Survey
• Those
who
use
rules
of
thumb
oIen
(at
least
once
a
week)
in
managing
others
please
raise
your
hand

17. Rule
of
Thumb
Managers
must
manage
– Andy
Grove,
Intel
President,
CEO,
Chairman
1967-­‐2004

18. Rule
of
Thumb
Not
to
decide
is
to
decide
– Anonymous

19. How
to
make
a
decision
• What
if
you
can’t
defer
a
decision
and
don’t
have
enough
facts
to
decide?
• Mickey’s
method:
– Flip
a
coin!
– But
listen
to
yourself,
not
the
outcome
of
the
coin
flip…
• Also
be
prepared
to
change
your
decision
as
soon
as
the
facts
demand
it

20. Rule
of
Thumb
Leading
by
example
occurs
whether
you
like
it
or
not.
– Jateen
Parekh,
Founder
and
CTO
of
Jelli
Crowdsourced
Radio

21. Rule
of
Thumb
I
praise
loudly;
I
blame
soIly.
– Catherine
the
Great,
Empress
of
Russia
1762
-­‐
1796

22. Rule
of
Thumb
We
have
two
ears
and
one
mouth.
Use
them
in
this
ra+o.
– Kimberly
Wiefling
paraphrased
from
Epictetus,
a
Roman
slave
and
philosopher
(55-­‐135
A.D.)
who
said
“We
have
two
ears
and
one
mouth
so
we
may
listen
more
and
talk
less”

23. Rule
of
Thumb
Communica+on
is
the
inverse
square
of
the
distance
domes+cally
and
the
inverse
cube
of
the
distance
interna+onally.
– David
C.
Evans,
Founder
and
CEO,
Evans
&
Sutherland
Computer
CorporaTon
Corollaries:
You
cannot
over
communicate.
Never
underes+mate
the
value
of
proximity.

24. Rule
of
Thumb
A
collocated
team
will
always
outperform
the
equivalent
distributed
team.
– Mike
Cohn,
Agile
and
Scrum
“Thought
Leader”

25. Rule
of
Thumb
Trust
but
verify.
– Ronald
Reagan
(and
others)

26. Rule
of
Thumb
A’s
hire
A’s,
B’s
hire
C’s.
– Steve
Jobs,
Apple
and
Pixar

27. Rule
of
Thumb
When
it
comes
to
gecng
things
done,
we
need
fewer
architects
and
more
bricklayers.
– Colleen
C.
Barre[,
President
Southwest
Airlines

28. Rule
of
Thumb
Gecn’
good
players
is
easy.
Gecn’ ‘em
to
play
together
is
the
hard
part.
– Casey
Stengel,
Manager
New
York
Yankees

29. Rule
of
Thumb
No
one
ever
jumped
ship
who
wasn’t
standing
close
to
the
rail.
– Jim
Hollingsworth

30. Rule
of
Thumb
Manage
salaries
as
if
you
had
to
post
them
outside
your
office
door.
– M.
W.
Mantle
There
are
always
salary
inequi+es.
– M.
W.
Mantle

31. Rule
of
Thumb
Genius
is
one
percent
inspira-on,
ninety
nine
percent
perspira-on.
– Thomas
Alva
Edison

32. Rule
of
Thumb
There's
just
a
tremendous
amount
of
craIsmanship
in
between
a
great
idea
and
a
great
product.
– Steve
Jobs,
from
"Steve
Jobs:
The
Lost
Interview",
1995
television
interview
with
Robert
X.
Cringely

33. Rule
of
Thumb
All
you
have
to
do
is
draw
a
picture.
– John
Warnock,
Co-­‐founder
Adobe
Systems

34. Rule
of
Thumb
Priori+ze.
Some+mes,
it
is
urgent
to
wait.
– Phac
le
Tuan,
VP
of
Engineering,
CEO

35. Rule
of
Thumb
Adequacy
is
sufficient.
– Adam
Osborne,
Author,
Publisher,
Computer
Designer,
and
Founder,
Osborne
Computers
An
update
on
Voltaire’s
“The
perfect
is
the
enemy
of
the
good”.
A
common
flaw
in
programmers.

36. Rule
of
Thumb
Don’t
boil
the
ocean.
– Anonymous

37. Rule
of
Thumb
There
is
no
reliable
rela+onship
between
the
volume
of
code
produced
and
the
state
of
comple+on
of
a
program,
its
quality,
or
its
ul+mate
value
to
a
user.
– Sco[
Rosenberg

38. Rule
of
Thumb
SoIware
is
hard.
– Donald
Knuth

39. Rule
of
Thumb
SoIware
isn’t
released,
it’s
allowed
to
escape.
– Project
Management
Lay
Wisdom

40. Rule
of
Thumb
Hofstadter’s
Law:
It
always
takes
longer
than
you
expect,
even
when
you
take
Hofstadter’s
Law
into
account.
– Douglas
Hofstadter

41. Rule
of
Thumb
The
hardest
single
part
of
building
a
soIware
system
is
deciding
precisely
what
to
build.
– Fredrick
P.
Brooks
Jr.

42. Rule
of
Thumb
Customers
will
grade
you
more
harshly
on
poor
quality
than
on
missing
features.
– Mark
Calomeni,
VP
of
Engineering,
Accept
Soaware

43. Rule
of
Thumb
Under
promise
and
over
deliver.
– Anonymous

44. Rule
of
Thumb
Brooks'
Law:
Adding
manpower
to
a
late
soIware
project
makes
it
later.
– Fredrick
P.
Brooks
Jr.

45. Ques+ons
or
Comments?
www.managingtheunmanageable.net

46. Thank
you!
Mickey
W.
Mantle
Founder
&
CEO
Wanderful
interac+ve
storybooks
mmantle@wanderfulstorybooks.com
www.wanderfulstorybooks.com
+1
415-­‐223-­‐1155,
x201
(o)
+1
800-­‐823-­‐0637,
x201
(o)