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Managing	
  	
  
using	
  	
  
Intui+on	
  and	
  Rules	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
Mickey	
  W.	
  Mantle	
  
May	
  2,	
  2013	
  
Two	
  Books	
  
Intui+on	
  
Rules	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
Managing	
  –	
  an	
  audience	
  survey	
  
•  Everyone	
  who	
  is	
  a	
  manager,	
  please	
  stand	
  	
  
•  Please	
  sit	
  if	
  you	
  have	
  never	
  had	
  any	
  
management	
  training	
  
•  Please	
  sit	
  if	
  your	
  management	
  training	
  was	
  
acquired	
  aIer	
  you	
  began	
  managing	
  people	
  
•  Those	
  who	
  remain	
  standing	
  actually	
  had	
  some	
  
management	
  training	
  before	
  they	
  started	
  
managing	
  people	
  
Managing,	
  A	
  Defini+on	
  
managing	
  programmers	
  –	
  making	
  sure	
  the	
  right	
  stuff	
  happens!	
  
Using	
  Intui+on	
  
Audience	
  Survey	
  
•  Those	
  who	
  use	
  intui+on	
  oIen	
  (at	
  least	
  daily)	
  
in	
  managing	
  others	
  please	
  raise	
  your	
  hand	
  
Malcolm	
  Gladwell1	
  
1Source:	
  gladwell.com/blink	
  
Example	
  Cited	
  by	
  Gladwell	
  
Nega+ve	
  Example	
  Cited	
  by	
  Gladwell	
  
Instant	
  Conclusions	
  
•  Intui+on,	
  or	
  Gladwell’s	
  instant	
  conclusions,	
  can	
  
be	
  very	
  important	
  to	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  a	
  manager	
  
and	
  leader	
  
•  Intui+on	
  can	
  be	
  improved	
  using	
  Gladwell’s	
  
techniques	
  
•  Decisions	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  made,	
  oIen	
  without	
  
enough	
  facts	
  to	
  support	
  a	
  decision	
  
•  A	
  great	
  manager	
  relies	
  upon	
  his	
  experience	
  and	
  
intui+on	
  to	
  bridge	
  the	
  gap	
  between	
  facts	
  and	
  
making	
  the	
  right	
  decision	
  
Using	
  Rules	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
•  A	
  general	
  guideline,	
  rather	
  than	
  a	
  strict	
  rule;	
  
an	
  approximate	
  measure	
  or	
  means	
  of	
  
reckoning	
  based	
  on	
  experience	
  or	
  common	
  
knowledge	
  
•  A	
  way	
  to	
  borrow	
  experience	
  in	
  a	
  concise	
  
fashion	
  
Example	
  Rules	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
•  A	
  s+tch	
  in	
  +me,	
  saves	
  nine	
  
•  If	
  it	
  ain’t	
  broke,	
  don’t	
  fix	
  it	
  
•  For	
  any	
  soIware	
  project,	
  it	
  will	
  likely	
  take	
  
twice	
  as	
  long	
  and	
  cost	
  twice	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  you	
  
originally	
  es+mate	
  to	
  really	
  finish	
  the	
  project	
  
Audience	
  Survey	
  
•  Those	
  who	
  use	
  rules	
  of	
  thumb	
  oIen	
  (at	
  least	
  
once	
  a	
  week)	
  in	
  managing	
  others	
  please	
  raise	
  
your	
  hand	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
Managers	
  must	
  manage	
  
– Andy	
  Grove,	
  Intel	
  President,	
  CEO,	
  Chairman	
  1967-­‐2004	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Not	
  to	
  decide	
  is	
  to	
  decide	
  
– Anonymous	
  
How	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  decision	
  
•  What	
  if	
  you	
  can’t	
  defer	
  a	
  decision	
  and	
  
don’t	
  have	
  enough	
  facts	
  to	
  decide?	
  
•  Mickey’s	
  method:	
  
– Flip	
  a	
  coin!	
  
– But	
  listen	
  to	
  yourself,	
  not	
  the	
  outcome	
  of	
  the	
  
coin	
  flip…	
  
•  Also	
  be	
  prepared	
  to	
  change	
  your	
  decision	
  as	
  
soon	
  as	
  the	
  facts	
  demand	
  it	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Leading	
  by	
  example	
  occurs	
  whether	
  you	
  like	
  it	
  
or	
  not.	
  
– Jateen	
  Parekh,	
  Founder	
  and	
  CTO	
  of	
  Jelli	
  
Crowdsourced	
  Radio	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
I	
  praise	
  loudly;	
  I	
  blame	
  soIly.	
  
– Catherine	
  the	
  Great,	
  Empress	
  of	
  Russia	
  1762	
  -­‐	
  1796	
  
	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
We	
  have	
  two	
  ears	
  and	
  one	
  mouth.	
  	
  Use	
  them	
  in	
  
this	
  ra+o.	
  
– Kimberly	
  Wiefling	
  	
  
paraphrased	
  from	
  Epictetus,	
  a	
  Roman	
  slave	
  and	
  philosopher	
  
(55-­‐135	
  A.D.)	
  who	
  said	
  “We	
  have	
  two	
  ears	
  and	
  one	
  mouth	
  
so	
  we	
  may	
  listen	
  more	
  and	
  talk	
  less”	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
Communica+on	
  is	
  the	
  inverse	
  square	
  of	
  the	
  
distance	
  domes+cally	
  and	
  the	
  inverse	
  cube	
  of	
  
the	
  distance	
  interna+onally.	
  
– David	
  C.	
  Evans,	
  Founder	
  and	
  CEO,	
  Evans	
  &	
  
Sutherland	
  Computer	
  CorporaTon	
  
Corollaries:	
  	
  	
  
You	
  cannot	
  over	
  communicate.	
  
Never	
  underes+mate	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  proximity.	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
A	
  collocated	
  team	
  will	
  always	
  outperform	
  the	
  
equivalent	
  distributed	
  team.	
  
– Mike	
  Cohn,	
  Agile	
  and	
  Scrum	
  “Thought	
  Leader”	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Trust	
  but	
  verify.	
  
– Ronald	
  Reagan	
  (and	
  others)	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
A’s	
  hire	
  A’s,	
  B’s	
  hire	
  C’s.	
  
– Steve	
  Jobs,	
  Apple	
  and	
  Pixar	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  gecng	
  things	
  done,	
  we	
  need	
  
fewer	
  architects	
  and	
  more	
  bricklayers.	
  
– Colleen	
  C.	
  Barre[,	
  President	
  Southwest	
  Airlines	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Gecn’	
  good	
  players	
  is	
  easy.	
  	
  Gecn’ ‘em	
  to	
  
play	
  together	
  is	
  the	
  hard	
  part.	
  
– Casey	
  Stengel,	
  Manager	
  New	
  York	
  Yankees	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
No	
  one	
  ever	
  jumped	
  ship	
  who	
  wasn’t	
  standing	
  
close	
  to	
  the	
  rail.	
  
– Jim	
  Hollingsworth	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Manage	
  salaries	
  as	
  if	
  you	
  had	
  to	
  post	
  them	
  
outside	
  your	
  office	
  door.	
  
– M.	
  W.	
  Mantle	
  
There	
  are	
  always	
  salary	
  inequi+es.	
  
– M.	
  W.	
  Mantle	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Genius	
  is	
  one	
  percent	
  inspira-on,	
  ninety	
  nine	
  
percent	
  perspira-on.	
  
– Thomas	
  Alva	
  Edison	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  	
  	
  There's	
  just	
  a	
  tremendous	
  amount	
  of	
  
craIsmanship	
  in	
  between	
  a	
  great	
  idea	
  and	
  a	
  
great	
  product.	
  
– Steve	
  Jobs,	
  from	
  "Steve	
  Jobs:	
  The	
  Lost	
  Interview",	
  1995	
  television	
  
interview	
  with	
  Robert	
  X.	
  Cringely	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
All	
  you	
  have	
  to	
  do	
  is	
  draw	
  a	
  picture.	
  
– John	
  Warnock,	
  Co-­‐founder	
  Adobe	
  Systems	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Priori+ze.	
  	
  Some+mes,	
  it	
  is	
  urgent	
  to	
  wait.	
  
– Phac	
  le	
  Tuan,	
  VP	
  of	
  Engineering,	
  CEO	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
Adequacy	
  is	
  sufficient.	
  
– Adam	
  Osborne,	
  Author,	
  Publisher,	
  Computer	
  
Designer,	
  and	
  Founder,	
  Osborne	
  Computers	
  
An	
  update	
  on	
  Voltaire’s	
  “The	
  perfect	
  is	
  the	
  enemy	
  of	
  the	
  good”.	
  	
  A	
  
common	
  flaw	
  in	
  programmers.	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Don’t	
  boil	
  the	
  ocean.	
  
– Anonymous	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
There	
  is	
  no	
  reliable	
  rela+onship	
  between	
  the	
  
volume	
  of	
  code	
  produced	
  and	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  
comple+on	
  of	
  a	
  program,	
  its	
  quality,	
  or	
  its	
  
ul+mate	
  value	
  to	
  a	
  user.	
  
– Sco[	
  Rosenberg	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
SoIware	
  is	
  hard.	
  
– Donald	
  Knuth	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
SoIware	
  isn’t	
  released,	
  it’s	
  allowed	
  to	
  escape.	
  
– Project	
  Management	
  Lay	
  Wisdom	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Hofstadter’s	
  Law:	
  	
  It	
  always	
  takes	
  longer	
  than	
  
you	
  expect,	
  even	
  when	
  you	
  take	
  Hofstadter’s	
  
Law	
  into	
  account.	
  
– Douglas	
  Hofstadter	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
The	
  hardest	
  single	
  part	
  of	
  building	
  a	
  soIware	
  
system	
  is	
  deciding	
  precisely	
  what	
  to	
  build.	
  
– Fredrick	
  P.	
  Brooks	
  Jr.	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Customers	
  will	
  grade	
  you	
  more	
  harshly	
  on	
  poor	
  
quality	
  than	
  on	
  missing	
  features.	
  
– Mark	
  Calomeni,	
  VP	
  of	
  Engineering,	
  Accept	
  
Soaware	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Under	
  promise	
  and	
  over	
  deliver.	
  
– Anonymous	
  
Rule	
  of	
  Thumb	
  
	
  
	
  
Brooks'	
  Law:	
  	
  Adding	
  manpower	
  to	
  a	
  late	
  
soIware	
  project	
  makes	
  it	
  later.	
  
– Fredrick	
  P.	
  Brooks	
  Jr.	
  
Ques+ons	
  or	
  Comments?	
  
www.managingtheunmanageable.net	
  	
  
Thank	
  you!	
  
Mickey	
  W.	
  Mantle	
  
Founder	
  &	
  CEO	
  
Wanderful	
  interac+ve	
  storybooks	
  
mmantle@wanderfulstorybooks.com	
  
www.wanderfulstorybooks.com	
  	
  
+1	
  415-­‐223-­‐1155,	
  x201	
  (o)	
  
+1	
  800-­‐823-­‐0637,	
  x201	
  (o)	
  
	
  

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Managing Using Intuition and Rules of Thumb 050113

  • 1. Managing     using     Intui+on  and  Rules  of  Thumb   Mickey  W.  Mantle   May  2,  2013  
  • 5. Managing  –  an  audience  survey   •  Everyone  who  is  a  manager,  please  stand     •  Please  sit  if  you  have  never  had  any   management  training   •  Please  sit  if  your  management  training  was   acquired  aIer  you  began  managing  people   •  Those  who  remain  standing  actually  had  some   management  training  before  they  started   managing  people  
  • 6. Managing,  A  Defini+on   managing  programmers  –  making  sure  the  right  stuff  happens!  
  • 8. Audience  Survey   •  Those  who  use  intui+on  oIen  (at  least  daily)   in  managing  others  please  raise  your  hand  
  • 9. Malcolm  Gladwell1   1Source:  gladwell.com/blink  
  • 10. Example  Cited  by  Gladwell  
  • 11. Nega+ve  Example  Cited  by  Gladwell  
  • 12. Instant  Conclusions   •  Intui+on,  or  Gladwell’s  instant  conclusions,  can   be  very  important  to  the  success  of  a  manager   and  leader   •  Intui+on  can  be  improved  using  Gladwell’s   techniques   •  Decisions  have  to  be  made,  oIen  without   enough  facts  to  support  a  decision   •  A  great  manager  relies  upon  his  experience  and   intui+on  to  bridge  the  gap  between  facts  and   making  the  right  decision  
  • 13. Using  Rules  of  Thumb  
  • 14. Rule  of  Thumb   •  A  general  guideline,  rather  than  a  strict  rule;   an  approximate  measure  or  means  of   reckoning  based  on  experience  or  common   knowledge   •  A  way  to  borrow  experience  in  a  concise   fashion  
  • 15. Example  Rules  of  Thumb   •  A  s+tch  in  +me,  saves  nine   •  If  it  ain’t  broke,  don’t  fix  it   •  For  any  soIware  project,  it  will  likely  take   twice  as  long  and  cost  twice  as  much  as  you   originally  es+mate  to  really  finish  the  project  
  • 16. Audience  Survey   •  Those  who  use  rules  of  thumb  oIen  (at  least   once  a  week)  in  managing  others  please  raise   your  hand  
  • 17. Rule  of  Thumb   Managers  must  manage   – Andy  Grove,  Intel  President,  CEO,  Chairman  1967-­‐2004  
  • 18. Rule  of  Thumb       Not  to  decide  is  to  decide   – Anonymous  
  • 19. How  to  make  a  decision   •  What  if  you  can’t  defer  a  decision  and   don’t  have  enough  facts  to  decide?   •  Mickey’s  method:   – Flip  a  coin!   – But  listen  to  yourself,  not  the  outcome  of  the   coin  flip…   •  Also  be  prepared  to  change  your  decision  as   soon  as  the  facts  demand  it  
  • 20. Rule  of  Thumb     Leading  by  example  occurs  whether  you  like  it   or  not.   – Jateen  Parekh,  Founder  and  CTO  of  Jelli   Crowdsourced  Radio  
  • 21. Rule  of  Thumb       I  praise  loudly;  I  blame  soIly.   – Catherine  the  Great,  Empress  of  Russia  1762  -­‐  1796    
  • 22. Rule  of  Thumb     We  have  two  ears  and  one  mouth.    Use  them  in   this  ra+o.   – Kimberly  Wiefling     paraphrased  from  Epictetus,  a  Roman  slave  and  philosopher   (55-­‐135  A.D.)  who  said  “We  have  two  ears  and  one  mouth   so  we  may  listen  more  and  talk  less”  
  • 23. Rule  of  Thumb   Communica+on  is  the  inverse  square  of  the   distance  domes+cally  and  the  inverse  cube  of   the  distance  interna+onally.   – David  C.  Evans,  Founder  and  CEO,  Evans  &   Sutherland  Computer  CorporaTon   Corollaries:       You  cannot  over  communicate.   Never  underes+mate  the  value  of  proximity.  
  • 24. Rule  of  Thumb     A  collocated  team  will  always  outperform  the   equivalent  distributed  team.   – Mike  Cohn,  Agile  and  Scrum  “Thought  Leader”  
  • 25. Rule  of  Thumb     Trust  but  verify.   – Ronald  Reagan  (and  others)  
  • 26. Rule  of  Thumb     A’s  hire  A’s,  B’s  hire  C’s.   – Steve  Jobs,  Apple  and  Pixar  
  • 27. Rule  of  Thumb     When  it  comes  to  gecng  things  done,  we  need   fewer  architects  and  more  bricklayers.   – Colleen  C.  Barre[,  President  Southwest  Airlines  
  • 28. Rule  of  Thumb     Gecn’  good  players  is  easy.    Gecn’ ‘em  to   play  together  is  the  hard  part.   – Casey  Stengel,  Manager  New  York  Yankees  
  • 29. Rule  of  Thumb     No  one  ever  jumped  ship  who  wasn’t  standing   close  to  the  rail.   – Jim  Hollingsworth  
  • 30. Rule  of  Thumb     Manage  salaries  as  if  you  had  to  post  them   outside  your  office  door.   – M.  W.  Mantle   There  are  always  salary  inequi+es.   – M.  W.  Mantle  
  • 31. Rule  of  Thumb     Genius  is  one  percent  inspira-on,  ninety  nine   percent  perspira-on.   – Thomas  Alva  Edison  
  • 32. Rule  of  Thumb        There's  just  a  tremendous  amount  of   craIsmanship  in  between  a  great  idea  and  a   great  product.   – Steve  Jobs,  from  "Steve  Jobs:  The  Lost  Interview",  1995  television   interview  with  Robert  X.  Cringely  
  • 33. Rule  of  Thumb     All  you  have  to  do  is  draw  a  picture.   – John  Warnock,  Co-­‐founder  Adobe  Systems  
  • 34. Rule  of  Thumb     Priori+ze.    Some+mes,  it  is  urgent  to  wait.   – Phac  le  Tuan,  VP  of  Engineering,  CEO  
  • 35. Rule  of  Thumb     Adequacy  is  sufficient.   – Adam  Osborne,  Author,  Publisher,  Computer   Designer,  and  Founder,  Osborne  Computers   An  update  on  Voltaire’s  “The  perfect  is  the  enemy  of  the  good”.    A   common  flaw  in  programmers.  
  • 36. Rule  of  Thumb       Don’t  boil  the  ocean.   – Anonymous  
  • 37. Rule  of  Thumb       There  is  no  reliable  rela+onship  between  the   volume  of  code  produced  and  the  state  of   comple+on  of  a  program,  its  quality,  or  its   ul+mate  value  to  a  user.   – Sco[  Rosenberg  
  • 38. Rule  of  Thumb       SoIware  is  hard.   – Donald  Knuth  
  • 39. Rule  of  Thumb       SoIware  isn’t  released,  it’s  allowed  to  escape.   – Project  Management  Lay  Wisdom  
  • 40. Rule  of  Thumb       Hofstadter’s  Law:    It  always  takes  longer  than   you  expect,  even  when  you  take  Hofstadter’s   Law  into  account.   – Douglas  Hofstadter  
  • 41. Rule  of  Thumb       The  hardest  single  part  of  building  a  soIware   system  is  deciding  precisely  what  to  build.   – Fredrick  P.  Brooks  Jr.  
  • 42. Rule  of  Thumb       Customers  will  grade  you  more  harshly  on  poor   quality  than  on  missing  features.   – Mark  Calomeni,  VP  of  Engineering,  Accept   Soaware  
  • 43. Rule  of  Thumb       Under  promise  and  over  deliver.   – Anonymous  
  • 44. Rule  of  Thumb       Brooks'  Law:    Adding  manpower  to  a  late   soIware  project  makes  it  later.   – Fredrick  P.  Brooks  Jr.  
  • 45. Ques+ons  or  Comments?   www.managingtheunmanageable.net    
  • 46. Thank  you!   Mickey  W.  Mantle   Founder  &  CEO   Wanderful  interac+ve  storybooks   mmantle@wanderfulstorybooks.com   www.wanderfulstorybooks.com     +1  415-­‐223-­‐1155,  x201  (o)   +1  800-­‐823-­‐0637,  x201  (o)