Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
Alejandro Werner - Latin America and the Caribbean
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
Alejandro Werner - Latin America and the Caribbean
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Much of the achievements in poverty and inequality reduction do not respond to Hugo Chavez social programs, but rather to higher public expenditure, fueling an import consumption boom. OIl was not enough, foreign debt increased fourfold. This presentation evaluates current state of Venezuelan economy under Maduro and draft some guidelines to achieving equitable growth
Session by Gabriela Ramos, Chief of Staff, G20 Sherpa and Special Counsellor to the Secretary-General, OECD
Among the myriad challenges facing our economies, few pose greater obstacles to better economic performance than the productivity slowdown and the rise in inequalities. Are they influencing each other? OECD work on the productivity-inclusiveness nexus, presented at the 2016 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, sets out what we know about the interactions between productivity and inclusiveness, identifies knowledge gaps, and charts win-win policies that boost productivity and tackle inequality.
Despite advances in business and technological transformations, we can no longer assume that they will automatically lead to better economic performance and stronger productivity growth. And there is no guarantee that the benefits of higher levels of growth, or higher levels of productivity in certain sectors, will be shared across the population as a whole. This session will explore how policy makers can adopt a broader, more inclusive approach to productivity growth – one that considers how to expand the productive assets of an economy by investing in individuals’ skills and providing an environment where enterprises have a fair chance to succeed, including in lagging regions, generating strong and sustainable growth and opportunities for all.
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Much of the achievements in poverty and inequality reduction do not respond to Hugo Chavez social programs, but rather to higher public expenditure, fueling an import consumption boom. OIl was not enough, foreign debt increased fourfold. This presentation evaluates current state of Venezuelan economy under Maduro and draft some guidelines to achieving equitable growth
Session by Gabriela Ramos, Chief of Staff, G20 Sherpa and Special Counsellor to the Secretary-General, OECD
Among the myriad challenges facing our economies, few pose greater obstacles to better economic performance than the productivity slowdown and the rise in inequalities. Are they influencing each other? OECD work on the productivity-inclusiveness nexus, presented at the 2016 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, sets out what we know about the interactions between productivity and inclusiveness, identifies knowledge gaps, and charts win-win policies that boost productivity and tackle inequality.
Despite advances in business and technological transformations, we can no longer assume that they will automatically lead to better economic performance and stronger productivity growth. And there is no guarantee that the benefits of higher levels of growth, or higher levels of productivity in certain sectors, will be shared across the population as a whole. This session will explore how policy makers can adopt a broader, more inclusive approach to productivity growth – one that considers how to expand the productive assets of an economy by investing in individuals’ skills and providing an environment where enterprises have a fair chance to succeed, including in lagging regions, generating strong and sustainable growth and opportunities for all.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
The latest quarterly strategic report that gives a summary of top market trends impacting major spend categories, and gives actionable insights to drive strategic value for your organization.
The latest quarterly strategic report that gives a summary of top market trends impacting major spend categories, and gives actionable insights to drive strategic value for your organization.
On 4th June 2015 the IBSA held a workshop on Developing Strategies for International Business.
Presentations: Global Economic Outlook; Treaty Access Limitations; Business Tax Incentives; Transfer Pricing & the Profit Split Method; The Post-Election Landscape for SMEs with Global Interests
Speakers: Jon Wingent (Close Brothers); Roy Saunders (IFS Consultants); Bernhard Gilbey (Squire Patton Boggs); Dr Emmanuel Llinares and Amanda Pletz (NERA Economic Consulting); Philip Baker QC (Field Court Tax Chambers).
The OECD Development Centre’s Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) is a cross-country measure of discrimination against women in social institutions (formal and informal laws, social norms, and practices) across 160 countries. Discriminatory social institutions intersect across all stages of girls’ and women’s life, restricting their access to justice, rights and empowerment opportunities and undermining their agency and decision-making authority over their life choices. As underlying drivers of gender inequalities, discriminatory social institutions perpetuate gender gaps in development areas, such as education, employment and health, and hinder progress towards rights-based social transformation that benefits both women and men.
The SIGI covers five dimensions of discriminatory social institutions, spanning major socio-economic areas that affect women’s lives: discriminatory family code, restricted physical integrity, son bias, restricted resources and assets, and restricted civil liberties. The SIGI’s variables quantify discriminatory social institutions such as unequal inheritance rights, early marriage, violence against women, and unequal land and property rights. Through its 160 country profiles, country classifications and unique database, the SIGI provides a strong evidence base to more effectively address the discriminatory social institutions that hold back progress on gender equality and women’s empowerment!
Presentación realizada por Sebastián Nieto Parra y Juan Vázquez Zamora.
Lima, Perú
16 de Marzo, 2016
Universidad del Pacífico
Accede al documento completo: http://bit.ly/2546iA3
Hacia una nueva asociación con China
Perspectivas Económicas de América Latina 2016
Presentación en el Senado de México (2/02/2016)
via @AngelMelguizo head of the Latin American and Caribbean Unit at @OECD_Centre
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Macroeconomic trends and near-term policy challenges in Emerging Asia
1. Chaipat Poonpatpibul
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
14 May 2015, Tokyo, Japan
4th OECD-AMRO-ADB Asian Regional Roundtable
0
Macroeconomic trends and near-term policy challenges
in Emerging Asia
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material represent the views of the
author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) or its member
authorities. Neither AMRO nor its member authorities shall be held responsible for any consequence of the use
of the information contained therein.
2. 1
Outline
1. Major Global Developments and Impact on Regional Economies
2. Developments on Regional Growth and Stability
3. Near-term Policy Discussion
3. 2
1. Major Global Developments and Impact
on Regional Economies
- Declining global oil prices
- Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
- Growth moderation and structural changes in China
4. 3
Declining Oil Prices
Global oil prices have declined markedly since Q4 2014
Source: IMF Commodity Price Index
Index, 2005=100
5. 4
Likely Impact of Lower Oil Prices (Assuming All Else Unchanged)
Source: AMRO and Consensus Forecast
Net Oil Importers Net Oil Exporters
Inflation • Lower oil prices will lessen inflation pressure, with inflation in 2015 forecasted1
to average 1.9 percent for the region, down from 3.0 percent in 2014.
Trade Balance • Generally an improvement, reducing
external vulnerabilities
• Lower trade balance
Fiscal Position • Mostly neutral
• China and Thailand have raised taxes
related to petroleum, capturing some
fiscal gains
• Mostly negative as revenues from
oil drop, but some have mitigated
by reducing fuel subsidies
Growth2 • Generally positive, most of the impact
expected to be felt with some lag in 2015
(0.5 – 1.2 ppts impact on private
consumption)
• Some softening of growth
Note: Preliminary analysis
1/ Based on Consensus Forecast for China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Thailand and Vietnam
2/ Impact on growth will vary depending on energy intensity, whether the economy produces oil, size of the oil price decline in domestic
currency and differences in pass-through of lower oil prices to the economy.
Declining Oil Prices
Lower oil prices have started to benefit many oil importers and
pose challenges to oil exporters in the region.
6. 5
Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
Monetary policy in advanced economies have diverged
due to uneven growth
Source: Bloomberg
US, Euro Area, Japan Annual GDP Growth %, q-o-q, s.a. and US Dollar Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Apr
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2005=100US
Euro Area
Japan
Dollar index (RHS)
%
ECB Announce
start of QE
22 Jan 2015
US Fed Announce
end of QE
29 Oct 2014
BOJ announce
QQE2
31 Oct 2014BOJ QQE
4 Apr 2014
Bernanke Statement
22 May 2013
7. Developments in Capital flows
6
Portfolio capital flows into emerging ASEAN have been volatile,
reflecting swings in investor risk sentiment
Non-Resident Net Purchases of Equities and Debt Securities, Selected Regional Economies
USD bn USD bn
Equities Debt Securities
Source: National Authorities
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2013 2014 2015
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Korea
Bernanke's Statement
22 May 2013
ECB's Announcement
of QE
22 Jan 2015
Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2013 2014 2015
Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia Vietnam Korea
Bernanke's Statement
22 May 2013
ECB's Announcement
of QE
22 Jan 2015
8. Developments in Capital flows
7
Private fund flows from EPFR suggests a somewhat similar trend
in capital flows in selected regional economies
Note : Data for April 2015 is up until 29 Apr.
Source: EPFR
Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
Private Net Capital Flows in selected regional economies
Equities Debt Securities
USD bn USD bn
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2013 2014 2015
Indonesia Thailand Phiippines Vietnam Malaysia Korea
Bernanke's Statement
22 May 2013
ECB's Announcement
of QE
22 Jan 2015
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2013 2014 2015
Indonesia Thailand Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Korea
Bernanke's Statement
22 May 2013
ECB's Announcement
of QE
22 Jan 2015
9. Risk of rising sovereign debt costs
8
Amid the volatility, emerging ASEAN economies have been differentiated
from other emerging markets (Brazil, Turkey and South Africa) so far.
% %
10Y Government Bond Yields Sovereign CDS Spread
Note: ASEAN-5 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
Source: National Authorities
Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
10. 9
Source: Bloomberg
Bilateral Spot Exchange Rate (vis-à-vis USD)
1 May 2014 = 100
Divergence of monetary policy in advanced economies
Several regional currencies have moved widely in response
to capital flows fluctuations
Against the backdrop of likely delay in first Fed rate hike, Asian currencies have recently
strengthened along with the return of capital inflows into this region in April 2015
11. 10
Growth moderation and structural changes in China
Growth in China has moderated due to slowing investment
and adjustments to the “new normal” stage
Source: National Economic Bureau of China and Customs and AMRO staff calculations
China Annual GDP Growth (% yoy) China Quarterly GDP Growth (% yoy)
12. 11
China’s “New Normal” will continue to have growth
implications on regional economies
Major Economic Targets in the Report on the Work of the Government and Actual Developments
2014 actual/targets 2015 targets
GDP growth 7.4% /target: about 7.5% about 7%
Growth in per unit GDP energy
consumption
- 4.8%/ target: higher than -3.9% -3.1%
Total newly-hired workers in urban
area
13.2 mn */ target: about 10 mn about 10 mn
Growth in trade (imports and exports) 6.1% / target: 7.5% about 6%
CPI inflation 2.0% / target: about 3.5% about 3%
M2 growth 12.2%/ target: about 13% about 12%**
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) -2.1%*** /target: -2.1% -2.3%
* The number of net newly-increased workers was 10.7 mn.
** The actual growth may be slightly higher than this depending on the needs of economic development (2015 Report on Work of the Government)
*** Deficit here refers to general government balance (revenues – expenditures) + budget adjustment funds and others.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Growth moderation in China
13. 12
Changes in the composition of China’s economic structure have
affected China’s imports from and exports to the rest of the region
China’s Imports: Contribution to Value Growth (YoY) for Major Imports (% Pts)
Total Imports
Price Change
Volume Change
Total Import Growth
Note: The number in brackets following each product is the share in imports in 2014. The quarter data is averaged monthly data
Source: General Administration of Customs and AMRO staff calculations
Growth moderation and structural changes in China
14. 13
Changes in the composition of China’s economic structure will
increasingly alter the types of China’s imports.
China’s Imports: Contribution to Value Growth (YoY) for Major Imports (% Pts)
Iron Ore
(5% of Total Imports)
Integrated Circuits
(11% of Total Imports)
Cosmetics
(0.1% of Total Imports) Price Change
Volume Change
Total Import Growth
Note: The number in brackets following each product is the share in imports in 2014. The quarter data is averaged monthly data
Source: General Administration of Customs and AMRO staff calculations
Growth moderation and structural changes in China
15. Source: National Authorities and AMRO Staff Estimates
14
Impact will depend on the size of exports to China and increasingly
on the types of goods exported.
Exports to China by Major Products Items : Selected Economies (2014)
Growth moderation and structural changes in China
16. 15
2. Developments on Regional Growth and Stability
- Growth
- Stability
- Recent developments in CLMV economies
17. Recent Growth Performance
16
Economic growth across the region varied in 2014,
with some signs of moderating momentum in Q1 2015.
Notes: For Korea, Singapore and Vietnam, data for 1Q 2015 are preliminary. For Lao PDR, data for 2013 and 2014 refer to FYE Oct 2012 to Sep 2013, and FYE
Oct 2013 to Sep 2014, respectively. For Myanmar, data for 2013 refer to FYE Apr 2013 to March 2014, while data for FYE Apr 2014 to Mar 2015 refers to the
target GDP.
Source: National Authorities
Real GDP Growth
(% yoy)
18. Industrial Production and Retail Sales
17
Leading indicators point to a likely moderation of manufacturing
production in 1Q 2015.
Consumption in some has started to benefit from declining oil prices.
Industrial Production Index (% yoy) Retail Sales (% yoy)
Source: National Authorities
Note: Monthly retail sales for the Philippines is proxied based on net sales
volume Index
19. 18
Growth Outlook
Near-term growth outlook is varied, depending on reliance on
global trade and ability of domestic demand to drive growth.
% yoy
Outlook for Real GDP Growth, Selected Economies
Source: Consensus Forecasts (April 2015)
20. 19
Growth Outlook
Near-term growth outlook is varied, depending on reliance on
global trade and ability of domestic demand to drive growth.
Source: Consensus Forecasts (April 2015)
Shared factors
• Enhanced policy to strengthen
domestic demand
• Reforms since the Asian crisis
• Room for counter-cyclical policy
Different factors
• Impact of declining oil prices
• Degrees of openness
• Ability to adjust to structural
changes in China
• Size of policy space
21. Price stability
20
Headline inflation has rapidly fallen across most economies,
mainly due to the decline in global commodity prices.
Data for Hong Kong, China excludes the effects of the government’s one-off relief measure. Data for Myanmar, Cambodia, and Lao PDR refer to Jan ‘15,
data for Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Hong Kong, China refer to Feb’15, and Thailand, Korea, Vietnam , China, the Philippines and Indonesia
refer to Mar ’15.
Source: National Authorities and AMRO Staff Estimates
Headline Inflation
% yoy
BN = Brunei Darussalam;
CN = People’s Republic of China;
HK = Hong Kong, China;
ID = Indonesia;
JP = Japan;
KH = Cambodia;
KR = Korea;
LA = Lao People’s Democratic Republic;
MM = Myanmar;
MY = Malaysia;
PH = Philippines;
SG = Singapore;
TH = Thailand;
VN = Vietnam
22. 21
Financial stability: Financial Soundness
Overall financial condition in the region remains sound given enhanced
regulation, supervision and deployment of macro-prudential measures
Source: IMF’s FSI Indicators
Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
Non-performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
23. 22
Note: Data for Myanmar refers to fiscal year, except 2014 which refers to Dec 2014. For Vietnam , Cambodia and Lao PDR, data are up to Dec 2014. Data for
Brunei are available from 1Q 2012 (and up to 4Q 2014). Latest data for China is as at Mar’15. For Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and
the Philippines, latest data is as at Feb’15.
Source: National Authorities
Average Credit Growth
% yoy
Private sector credit growth moderated across larger ASEAN economies.
Credit growth remains somewhat buoyant in smaller ASEAN economies.
Financial stability: Credit Growth
24. Note: For Malaysia, household debt include debt to insurance companies and government housing loans through the Treasury Housing Loans Division.
For Thailand, household debt refers to loans to households from financial institutions. For Korea, household debt excludes debts held by the self-
employed. For Hong Kong and Singapore, data refers to loans to professional/private individuals, and DBU consumer loans, respectively.
Source: National Authorities 23
The speed of growth in household debt has stabilized.
The accumulated stock remains high.
Financial Stability : Household Debt
Household Debt, Selected Economies (% yoy, in Local Currency)
*Most loans have flexible rates in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia, with Korea
having a fairly even distribution between loans that have flexible and fixed rates.
25. 24
Corporates with large foreign currency denominated liabilities are
vulnerable to the coming US Fed rate hike and USD appreciation
Outstanding International Debt Securities by Non-Financial Corporations
(By Residence of Issuer), Selected Economies
USD bn
Notes: Since the mid-2000s, borrowers from many countries are able to borrow offshore in their own currency. Notwithstanding these developments, bonds
denominated in foreign currencies, i.e. in a currency different from that of the country where the borrower resides still account for about half of total
outstanding international debt securities (BIS Quarterly Review, December 2012).
Source: BIS
Financial Stability : Corporate FX Liabilities
26. 25
Source: National authorities and AMRO Staff Estimates
Signs of weakening external position and buoyant credit growth
warrant vigilance.
Credit Growth (%)Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Recent Developments in CLMV economies
27. 26
*Foreign Currency Deposits are not yet allowed in Myanmar, thus, proxy indicators for dollarization are difficult to attain as the total value of US dollars in circulation
remain unknown.
Source: AMRO Staff Estimates
CLMV economies have strived to create fiscal space and
increase usage of domestic currencies.
Foreign Currency Deposit (in % of broad money)*Central Government Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Recent Developments in CLMV economies
29. 28
Environment
Navigating the economy will continue to be challenging
Source: Consensus Forecasts (April 2015)
Benign factors
• Low inflation
• Policy space from earlier
prudent policy
• Stable financial conditions
Risks and vulnerabilities
• Slower external demand
• Sudden stop and volatility of
capital flows
• Impact of the rising cost of
funds and USD appreciation
on private sector leverage
30. Monetary Policy
29
Notes: * Policy interest rate for China refers to the 1-year benchmark lending rate
Source: National Authorities
Since Q4 2014 several authorities have eased policy rate in
consideration of the benign outlook of inflation
bps
bps
33. 32
Source: National authorities and AMRO Staff Estimates
Fiscal and debt positions have generally improved on stable
revenues and streamlined budgets
Central Government Debt (% of GDP)Central Government Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Fiscal Policy
34. 33
Policy to address vulnerabilities, deal with volatility
and enhance growth
Address vulnerability of sectors that are exposed to interest
rate and FX risks such as through macroprudential measures.
Carefully employ monetary policy taking into account
limitations of monetary policy and caution about the effects
on private debt accumulation.
Prepare and manage fiscal space to address risks to growth
ahead.
Enhance policy coordination on crisis prevention and
management – strengthen coordination between different
layers of financial safety nets.
Safeguard Stability +Enhance Growth
35. Contact us:
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
10 Shenton Way,
#11-07 MAS Building,
Singapore 079117
Tel: +65 6323 9830
Fax: +65 6223 8187
www.amro-asia.org
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