This document provides an economic outlook and analysis from TD Economics. It summarizes recent global, US, Canadian and regional economic performance and forecasts. Key points include ongoing struggles for the global economy to accelerate, varied regional growth patterns, China's economic rebalancing, a rebounding US economy, modest Canadian growth supported by exports and consumers, and housing market resilience with slowing price gains. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical issues while upside potential exists if other economies improve more than expected.
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
Roberto Steiner - Colombia under the new global economic conditions
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
The quarterly forecast for the State of Oregon from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. These slides are from the Office's forecast release to the Legislature on February 12, 2014.
The Australian economic growth continues to follow a steady growth path with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest point since July 2013. Key points affecting the Australian economy include:
• Negative rates overseas encouraging a new wave of inbound capital
• China’s transition to a consumption economy emerges in domestic economic activity with:
• Hotel investment volumes underpinned by a severe supply shortage, increased by 157% since 2013
• National growth results exceed expectations with service led growth crystallising
• Australian major commodity export prices bounce back
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
Roberto Steiner - Colombia under the new global economic conditions
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
The quarterly forecast for the State of Oregon from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. These slides are from the Office's forecast release to the Legislature on February 12, 2014.
The Australian economic growth continues to follow a steady growth path with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest point since July 2013. Key points affecting the Australian economy include:
• Negative rates overseas encouraging a new wave of inbound capital
• China’s transition to a consumption economy emerges in domestic economic activity with:
• Hotel investment volumes underpinned by a severe supply shortage, increased by 157% since 2013
• National growth results exceed expectations with service led growth crystallising
• Australian major commodity export prices bounce back
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
Lekcija: Latvijas tautsaimniecība – pārkaršanas riski (English)Latvijas Banka
Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsme ir paātrinājusies. Arī iedzīvotāju ienākumi pakāpeniski aug. Atšķirībā no krīzes laika - kas šobrīd ir savādāk?
Prezentācijā tiek analizēti:
• Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsmi noteicošie faktori;
• Tautsaimniecības attīstību raksturojošie strukturālie rādītāji;
• Līdzsvarotai attīstībai nepieciešamās kapacitātes veidošanās līdzšinējās tendences un
• Nākotnes iespējas.
For the second year, the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) have produced the 2016 Global Travel Price Outlook. This report is designed to assist travel buyers as they budget for and negotiate their 2016 travel programs, helping companies realize the greatest value for their travel spend. Research was conducted with assistance from Rockport Analytics, a leader in global market research and insight, and additional analysis and context was provided by experts from CWT Solutions Group, CWT’s dedicated consulting division.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
Devaluations may have an impact on multinational stock prices depending on the size of the particular country and whether they are anticipated or not. In an efficient market, predictable devaluations on small countries should not impact stock prices of large multinational companies. We analyze cummulative abnormal returns (CAR) to five devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls. Our event study covers a period of five years and uses daily stock prices for up to 122 multinationals with Venezuelan subsidiaries. We find evidence of significant negative impacts on stock prices on various devaluations, reaching up to -1.75% over the event window. We interpret these results as evidence of market myopia, as they are driven by retained earnings on financial statements being converted into dollars at highly overvalued official rates, in spite of subsidiaries not having access to dollars at these prices for years prior to the devaluations.
Study of Paraguay Growth Opportunities during First Symsposium on Paraguay-Ko...GlobalPeaceFoundation
An examination of growth opportunities in Paraguay presented at the international symposium "Towards an Alliance between Paraguay and Korea" held in greater Asunción, Paraguay, June 17, 2014. For more visit: http://www.globalpeace.org/images/news/news-2014/Paraguay/international-symposium-towards-an-alliance-between-paraguay-and-korea
Alejandro Werner - Latin America and the Caribbean
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
Lekcija: Latvijas tautsaimniecība – pārkaršanas riski (English)Latvijas Banka
Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsme ir paātrinājusies. Arī iedzīvotāju ienākumi pakāpeniski aug. Atšķirībā no krīzes laika - kas šobrīd ir savādāk?
Prezentācijā tiek analizēti:
• Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsmi noteicošie faktori;
• Tautsaimniecības attīstību raksturojošie strukturālie rādītāji;
• Līdzsvarotai attīstībai nepieciešamās kapacitātes veidošanās līdzšinējās tendences un
• Nākotnes iespējas.
For the second year, the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) have produced the 2016 Global Travel Price Outlook. This report is designed to assist travel buyers as they budget for and negotiate their 2016 travel programs, helping companies realize the greatest value for their travel spend. Research was conducted with assistance from Rockport Analytics, a leader in global market research and insight, and additional analysis and context was provided by experts from CWT Solutions Group, CWT’s dedicated consulting division.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
Devaluations may have an impact on multinational stock prices depending on the size of the particular country and whether they are anticipated or not. In an efficient market, predictable devaluations on small countries should not impact stock prices of large multinational companies. We analyze cummulative abnormal returns (CAR) to five devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls. Our event study covers a period of five years and uses daily stock prices for up to 122 multinationals with Venezuelan subsidiaries. We find evidence of significant negative impacts on stock prices on various devaluations, reaching up to -1.75% over the event window. We interpret these results as evidence of market myopia, as they are driven by retained earnings on financial statements being converted into dollars at highly overvalued official rates, in spite of subsidiaries not having access to dollars at these prices for years prior to the devaluations.
Study of Paraguay Growth Opportunities during First Symsposium on Paraguay-Ko...GlobalPeaceFoundation
An examination of growth opportunities in Paraguay presented at the international symposium "Towards an Alliance between Paraguay and Korea" held in greater Asunción, Paraguay, June 17, 2014. For more visit: http://www.globalpeace.org/images/news/news-2014/Paraguay/international-symposium-towards-an-alliance-between-paraguay-and-korea
Alejandro Werner - Latin America and the Caribbean
O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais.
O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA.
O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela.
Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL
During ICCI's May Business Lunch, keynote speaker Antony Kelly shared with our business community key insights on end of the financial year main figures.
Dr. Stephen J. Fuller of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis gave a presentation to the Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia (DemBiz.org) on April 18, 2014. These are the updated slides from the presentation.
The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis released the latest quarterly economic and revenue forecast to the Governor and Legislature on February 19, 2015. Included are an overview of current economic conditions in the state, an outlook for employment and the General Fund and Lottery Fund forecasts for the state.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Economic and Financial Outlook - Leslie Preston - TD Economist
1. THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Leslie Preston
Economist
TD Economics
October 2014
2. GLOBAL ECONOMY STRUGGLING TO
ACCELERATE
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
World GDP growth, Y/Y % Chg.
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: IMF. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
Forecast
3. DEEPLY VARIED REGIONAL PERFORMANCES
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % Chg.
U.S. Japan Eurozone China Emerging Mkts
ex-China
2013 2014 2015
Source: TD Economics.
Forecast by TD Economics as of June 2014.
4. CHINA'S ECONOMY REBALANCING
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Share of Nominal GDP, %
Private Consumption Government
Consumption
China U.S. Germany
Total Investment Net Exports
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2013 Data.
5. U.S. REBOUNDS AFTER FROZEN START
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Real GDP, annualized quarter/quarter % change
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Last data point Q2, 2014. Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Forecast
Forecast Y/Y % Chg.
(Q4/Q4 % growth)
2014F: 2.2% (2.0)
2015F: 3.0% (2.8)
2016F: 2.7% (2.6)
6. DIMINISHED FISCAL DRAG AND STRONGER
HOUSING RECOVERY TO SUPPORT GROWTH
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Contribution to real GDP growth; percent
Final Domestic Demand
Net Exports
Inventory investment
Real GDP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Source: BEA, Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014
8. U.S. DOLLAR ENJOYING A RESURGENCE
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
EUR per USD JPY per USD
Euro (LHS)
Japanese Yen (RHS)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
Forecast
9. LITTLE UPSIDE FOR THE CANADIAN DOLLAR
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
US$/C$
Forecast
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bank of Canada. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
10. RELATIVELY FLAT OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITIES
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Overall TDCI* (LHS)
Oil-WTI (RHS)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F 2016F
*Index of 18 Canadian resource commodity prices in US$. Forecast as at September 2014.
Forecast
TD Commodity Price Index (Q1, 2002 =100)
US$/Barrel
11. CANADIAN AND U.S. GDP GROWTH RATES
TEND TO MOVE TOGETHER
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Canada
USA
Real GDP, Y/Y % Chg.*
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Source:Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
*Canada: 2007 Chained dollars. United States: 2009 Chained dollars.
Fcst.
Historical Corr. Coeff. = 0.86
12. COUNTING ON STRONGER EXPORTS
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Real Goods Exports
Crude oil production
Y/Y % Chg.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Statistics Canada. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
Forecast
13. CONSUMERS PROVIDE SOLID BASE
4
3
2
1
0
Y/Y % Chg., Real expenditure on goods and services
Forecast
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014.
14. DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIO HAS STABILIZED
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
% Y/Y % Chg.
Household Debt-to-Income Ratio (lhs)
Household Debt Growth (rhs)
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Source: Statistics Canada. Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014.
Fcst*
15. HOUSING MARKET HAS PROVED
RESILIENT, BUT PRICE GAINS SET TO
SLOW
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Forecast
Y/Y % Chg., Average existing home prices
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association. Forecast by TD Economics as at October 2014.
16. INFLATION OUTLOOK NON-THREATENING
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Consumer Price Index, Y/Y % Chg.
CPI (Total)
Core CPI
Forecast
2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016
Source: Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
17. INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
US Federal Funds Target Rate
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate
%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Bank of Canada/Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014.
Forecast
18. BOND YIELDS TO RISE, BUT REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
%, Yield on Canadian Bonds
overnight
target
Current 2015 2018
3-month 2-year 5-year 10-year 30-year
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics. As at October 6, 2014.
19. SOME CONVERGENCE IN PROVINCIAL GROWTH
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % Chg.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Alberta
Canada
B.C.
Ontario
Manitoba
Québec
Sask.
Atlantic
2013E 2014-15F
E,F: Estimate, Forecast by TD Economics as of September 2014.
20. ONTARIO JOB MARKET TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT
Unemployment rate, % Employment growth, %
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
Employment (right axis)
Unemployment Rate (left axis)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F
Source: Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
21. ONTARIO ENJOYS GOOD OVERALL DEMOGRAPHICS
0.6
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Toronto
Ottawa-Gat.
Oshawa
Kitchener
Kingston
Hamilton
London
Peterborough
Grtr. Sudbury
Welland
St. Cath. - Niag.
Thunder Bay
Windsor
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census. *Over 2006-11 period.
P
%, Population growth*
22. BUT ITS ECONOMIC MODEL HAS CHANGED
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Public Sector
Other Goods and
Services
Manufacturing
Empoyment by Industry, Index 2002 = 100 (Ontario)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics. As at Q3, 2014.
23. EXPORT ORIENTED INDUSTRIES TO LEAD PACK
Ontario real GDP growth, Y/Y % Chg., by selected industries, (2014-15 Avg.)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Transport & Ware.
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Primary
Accomm. & Food
Retail
Total
Public Services
Construction
Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2014.
24. ONTARIO GOVERNMENT STILL FACING BIG
DEFICITS
Ontario Net Debt to GDP ratio
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Ontario Budgetary Balance as a % of GDP
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
Balance to GDP (LHS)
Net Debt to GDP (RHS)
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14e* 14-15f 15-16f 16-17f 17-18f
*Expected. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2014 Budget.
Forecast
25. THE REGION AT A GLANCE
INDICATORS Welland
St. Catharines-
Niagara
Canada
Population 52,585 407,878 34,931,599
Average Growth over 2006-11 0.60% 0.50% 5.90%
% of population 65+ 17.9% 18.9% 14.8%
Average Household Income $66,946 $74,367 $85,792
Participation Rate 62.4% 63.8% 66.7%
% of pop. 25+ with more than a HS degree 47.3% 51.0% 56.6%
Source: FP Markets, July 1st, 2012 estimate.
26. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO TRAIL PROVINCIAL
TREND
12
10
8
6
4
Canada Ontario St. Cath-Niagara*
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: Canada Census, Haver Analytics. Forecast by TD Economics as at October 2014.
* 2014 figure is year-to-date average.
Forecast
Unemployment rate, %
27. WELLAND'S LARGEST EMPLOYERS GAINED
MORE THAN 100 JOBS OVER THE PAST YEAR
Number of employees
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canadian Tire Financial Services
Niagara Health System – Welland Hospital Site
District School Board of Niagara
Niagara College Canada
Convergys CMG Canada Ltd. Partnership
Corporation of the City of Welland
Niagara Catholic District School Board
Bosch Rexroth
Zehr’s
Wal-Mart Canada
PowerBlades
McDonald’s Restaurant
E.D. Products Ltd.
Vesuvius Canada Inc.
Welded Tube Canada
2014
2013
Source: City of Welland, Business Directory.
28. ST. CATHERINE'S & DISTRICT HOUSING
PERFORMANCE
Resale Activity (Units)
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
Average Residential Price ($)
280,000
270,000
260,000
250,000
240,000
230,000
220,000
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
Average Residential Price Unit Sales
Fcst.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association. Forecast by TD Economics as at October 2014.
29. DOWNSIDE RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK
Geopolitical developments intensify
China's economic rebalancing hits major turbulence
Economic stagnation in Europe and Japan
Renewed market volatility as Fed normalizes policy
UPSIDE RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK
U.S. economy could gain more traction
QE in Europe and Japan could surprise
30. www.td.com/economics
@CraigA_TD
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