The document proposes a new approach for introducing new users to the TIMES modeling framework. It involves developing a standardized "TIMES-Starter" model based on the publicly available USEPA US9r MARKAL model. This standardized model would provide default technology and fuel price data as well as templates demonstrating best practices. It would serve as a starting point for new users to build their own customized TIMES models. The approach also involves updating the ETSAP training course to utilize the standardized TIMES-Starter model and developing online training videos. The goal is to lower barriers for new users by providing a complete, documented starting model and guidance for customizing it for their needs.
Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Model PlatformIEA-ETSAP
The document provides an introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter modeling platform. It describes the TIMES-Starter model as a fully assembled energy systems model that can be customized for a particular country or region. It comes with a peer-reviewed technology database and tools to improve analysis and dissemination of results. The document outlines the model components and templates for assembling energy supply, demand, technologies and scenarios to develop the customized model. It describes the model management system for organizing the data and running scenarios.
This document summarizes a study analyzing the potential cost reductions and economic viability of offshore wind energy development in the United States from 2015-2030. The study uses modeling to estimate levelized costs of energy (LCOE) under various technology scenarios and finds that with continued innovation, average LCOE could drop from $130-450/MWh in 2015 to $80-220/MWh by 2027. Certain coastal regions like the Northeast Atlantic may reach economic viability by 2030 without subsidies. Costs are projected to converge for fixed-bottom and floating technologies, with an economic breakpoint of 45-60 meters water depth.
This document presents an overview of simple tools available in Petro-SIM, including a flash tool, pipe hydraulics tool, and steam table tool. The flash tool and pipe hydraulics tool are driven by Excel workbooks and can standardize repetitive engineering calculations for things like vapor fraction from flash calculations and pressure drop and velocity in pipe networks. The steam table tool provides steam and condensate property calculations based on input temperature and pressure. These simple tools aim to reduce the time and effort for process engineers to generate standard data.
Modified CSKA Application in the Floating Point Adder using Carry Skip Adder ...IJMTST Journal
In this paper, we present a carry skip adder (CSKA) structure that has a higher speed yet lower energy
consumption compared with the conventional one. The speed enhancement is achieved by applying
concatenation and incrementation schemes to improve the efficiency of the conventional CSKA (Conv
CSKA) structure. In addition, instead of utilizing multiplexer logic, the proposed structure makes use of
AND-OR-Invert (AOI) and OR-AND-Invert (OAI) compound gates for the skip logic. The structure maybe
realized with both fixed stage size and variable stage size styles, wherein the latter further improves the
speed and energy parameters of the adder. Finally, a hybrid variable latency extension of the proposed
structure, which lowers the power consumption without considerably impacting the speed, is presented.
This extension utilizes a modified parallel structure for increasing the slack time, and hence, enabling
further voltage reduction. The proposed structures are assessed by comparing their speed, power, and
energy parameters with those of other adders using a 45-nmstatic CMOS technology for a wide range of
supply voltages. The results that are obtained using HSPICE simulations reveal, on average, 44% and
38%improvements in the delay and energy, respectively, compared with those of the Conv-CSKA. In
addition, the power–delay product was the lowest among the structures considered in this paper, while its
energy–delay product was almost the same as that of the Kogge–Stone parallel prefix adder with
considerably smaller area and power consumption. Simulations on the proposed hybrid variable latency
CSKA reveal reduction in the power consumption compared with the latest works in this field while having
a reasonably high speed.
The document discusses the TIMES-Starter Phase II project. It provides an overview of the TIMES-Starter prototype energy system modeling template, which is meant to help new users learn TIMES modeling. It describes the status of the prototype, feedback received, and planned next steps to further develop the templates, documentation, and training materials. The goal is to create an easy to use starting point template that can be adapted for a country's specific energy system, policies, and analysis needs.
Presented in this short document is a description of how to model and solve multi-utility scheduling optimization (MUSO) problems in IMPL. Multi-utility systems (co/tri-generation) are typically found in petroleum refineries and petrochemical plants (multi-commodity systems) especially when fuel-gas (i.e., off-gases of methane and ethane) is a co- or by-product of the production from which multi-pressure heating-, motive- and process-steam are generated on-site. Other utilities include hydrogen, electricity, water, cooling media, air, nitrogen, chemicals, etc. where a multi-utility system is shown in Figure 1 with an intermediate or integrated utility (both produced and consumed) such as fuel-gas, steam or electricity. Itemized benefit areas just for better management of an integrated steam network can be found in Pelham (2013) where his sample multi-pressure steam utility flowsheet is found in Figure 2.
The document discusses using user variables, scripts, and triggers in KBC software to iteratively estimate flue gas composition from hydrogen content in coke. It proposes creating user variables to store the hydrogen target and estimated flue gas CO2, then using scripts and triggers to iterate the CO2 calculation until the target is met. Diagrams show the logic flow and how triggers would solve the FCC model on changes to drive iteration. The conclusion states that user variables and scripts add functionality, and triggers require practice to setup correctly.
Deep Dive TrainingEnergy Efficiency in Industrial ProcessesChristoph Emde
The document describes a training program on energy efficiency in industrial processes offered at the Learning Factory in Luxembourg. The 5-day training provides an overview of energy efficiency concepts and techniques, teaches methods to assess current utility usage and identify savings opportunities, and includes hands-on exercises to optimize various industrial systems and utilities using the Learning Factory's production facilities. Participants will learn how to map resource usage, measure energy consumption, analyze load curves, optimize processes, and quantify potential savings to lower operational costs.
Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Model PlatformIEA-ETSAP
The document provides an introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter modeling platform. It describes the TIMES-Starter model as a fully assembled energy systems model that can be customized for a particular country or region. It comes with a peer-reviewed technology database and tools to improve analysis and dissemination of results. The document outlines the model components and templates for assembling energy supply, demand, technologies and scenarios to develop the customized model. It describes the model management system for organizing the data and running scenarios.
This document summarizes a study analyzing the potential cost reductions and economic viability of offshore wind energy development in the United States from 2015-2030. The study uses modeling to estimate levelized costs of energy (LCOE) under various technology scenarios and finds that with continued innovation, average LCOE could drop from $130-450/MWh in 2015 to $80-220/MWh by 2027. Certain coastal regions like the Northeast Atlantic may reach economic viability by 2030 without subsidies. Costs are projected to converge for fixed-bottom and floating technologies, with an economic breakpoint of 45-60 meters water depth.
This document presents an overview of simple tools available in Petro-SIM, including a flash tool, pipe hydraulics tool, and steam table tool. The flash tool and pipe hydraulics tool are driven by Excel workbooks and can standardize repetitive engineering calculations for things like vapor fraction from flash calculations and pressure drop and velocity in pipe networks. The steam table tool provides steam and condensate property calculations based on input temperature and pressure. These simple tools aim to reduce the time and effort for process engineers to generate standard data.
Modified CSKA Application in the Floating Point Adder using Carry Skip Adder ...IJMTST Journal
In this paper, we present a carry skip adder (CSKA) structure that has a higher speed yet lower energy
consumption compared with the conventional one. The speed enhancement is achieved by applying
concatenation and incrementation schemes to improve the efficiency of the conventional CSKA (Conv
CSKA) structure. In addition, instead of utilizing multiplexer logic, the proposed structure makes use of
AND-OR-Invert (AOI) and OR-AND-Invert (OAI) compound gates for the skip logic. The structure maybe
realized with both fixed stage size and variable stage size styles, wherein the latter further improves the
speed and energy parameters of the adder. Finally, a hybrid variable latency extension of the proposed
structure, which lowers the power consumption without considerably impacting the speed, is presented.
This extension utilizes a modified parallel structure for increasing the slack time, and hence, enabling
further voltage reduction. The proposed structures are assessed by comparing their speed, power, and
energy parameters with those of other adders using a 45-nmstatic CMOS technology for a wide range of
supply voltages. The results that are obtained using HSPICE simulations reveal, on average, 44% and
38%improvements in the delay and energy, respectively, compared with those of the Conv-CSKA. In
addition, the power–delay product was the lowest among the structures considered in this paper, while its
energy–delay product was almost the same as that of the Kogge–Stone parallel prefix adder with
considerably smaller area and power consumption. Simulations on the proposed hybrid variable latency
CSKA reveal reduction in the power consumption compared with the latest works in this field while having
a reasonably high speed.
The document discusses the TIMES-Starter Phase II project. It provides an overview of the TIMES-Starter prototype energy system modeling template, which is meant to help new users learn TIMES modeling. It describes the status of the prototype, feedback received, and planned next steps to further develop the templates, documentation, and training materials. The goal is to create an easy to use starting point template that can be adapted for a country's specific energy system, policies, and analysis needs.
Presented in this short document is a description of how to model and solve multi-utility scheduling optimization (MUSO) problems in IMPL. Multi-utility systems (co/tri-generation) are typically found in petroleum refineries and petrochemical plants (multi-commodity systems) especially when fuel-gas (i.e., off-gases of methane and ethane) is a co- or by-product of the production from which multi-pressure heating-, motive- and process-steam are generated on-site. Other utilities include hydrogen, electricity, water, cooling media, air, nitrogen, chemicals, etc. where a multi-utility system is shown in Figure 1 with an intermediate or integrated utility (both produced and consumed) such as fuel-gas, steam or electricity. Itemized benefit areas just for better management of an integrated steam network can be found in Pelham (2013) where his sample multi-pressure steam utility flowsheet is found in Figure 2.
The document discusses using user variables, scripts, and triggers in KBC software to iteratively estimate flue gas composition from hydrogen content in coke. It proposes creating user variables to store the hydrogen target and estimated flue gas CO2, then using scripts and triggers to iterate the CO2 calculation until the target is met. Diagrams show the logic flow and how triggers would solve the FCC model on changes to drive iteration. The conclusion states that user variables and scripts add functionality, and triggers require practice to setup correctly.
Deep Dive TrainingEnergy Efficiency in Industrial ProcessesChristoph Emde
The document describes a training program on energy efficiency in industrial processes offered at the Learning Factory in Luxembourg. The 5-day training provides an overview of energy efficiency concepts and techniques, teaches methods to assess current utility usage and identify savings opportunities, and includes hands-on exercises to optimize various industrial systems and utilities using the Learning Factory's production facilities. Participants will learn how to map resource usage, measure energy consumption, analyze load curves, optimize processes, and quantify potential savings to lower operational costs.
MPC uses Petro-SIM for flowsheet modeling across its six refineries, including converting 500 models to Petro-SIM. FCC and other reactor models were updated to the latest versions. Refinery-wide models were built for two refineries that include custom representations using spreadsheets. Crude assays are imported from spiral assays and calibrated in Petro-SIM. Spreadsheets and user code allow flexible modeling of logic switches and CSTR reactors to represent refinery units.
This document discusses Air Liquide's adoption of the Platform for Advanced Control and Estimation (PACE) as their new standard Model Predictive Control (MPC) platform. PACE was selected to replace Air Liquide's legacy MPC software due to increasing maintenance costs and lack of technological advances. The document focuses on the benefits of PACE for controlling Air Separation Units (ASU). It provides an overview of ASU processes and control challenges, and discusses how PACE addresses these challenges through improved workflow, modeling capabilities, and greater efficiency and sustainability of operations. Case studies demonstrate benefits such as reduced operator intervention and improved plant performance during production changes.
Simulating combined cycle gas turbine power plants in aspen hysysYilberMndez
The document describes a methodology for simulating the off-design operation of a triple-pressure reheat combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in Aspen HYSYS. It presents the modeling equations that capture the full off-design characteristics of plant components like compressors, turbines, heat recovery steam generators, and steam turbines. It also proposes a specially tailored procedure for solving the complex nonlinear calculations required in Aspen HYSYS. The simulation results from the Aspen HYSYS model are then compared to an equivalent model from GateCycle, showing good agreement between the two with average differences of less than 2.0% for power outputs and 1.5% for thermal efficiencies.
This document describes Chemstations' CHEMCAD software suite for process simulation. CHEMCAD allows simulation of processes in chemical, petrochemical, pharmaceutical and other industries. It has a large thermodynamic database and can simulate unit operations like distillation columns, reactors, heat exchangers and more. The software provides mass and energy balances, optimization capabilities, and output in common formats like Excel. CHEMCAD is widely used for process design, optimization, and verification in both new and existing facilities.
Solar Heat Storage Technologies: Advancements and Integration in Renewable En...IRJET Journal
The document discusses solar heat storage technologies and their integration into renewable energy systems. It provides background on solar heat storage and its importance for generating energy without fossil fuels. Sensible heat storage stores thermal energy by increasing the temperature of a storage medium without phase transformation. Various solar heat storage technologies are described, including flat plate collectors, evacuated tube collectors, and concentrating solar power systems. The future of solar heat storage technologies is promising as materials improve and integration with other renewables increases. Challenges include the initial cost and weather dependence of solar energy systems. The document also examines thermal energy storage methods, classifications of solar energy storage, advantages and disadvantages, and the cost-effectiveness of solar heat storage technologies.
The document summarizes a student project analyzing the cycle and performing trade studies of the RS-25 Space Shuttle Main Engine powerhead using high-fidelity modeling tools. The student developed a model of the SSME using the ROCETS tool and benchmarked it against published performance data, showing matches within 2.5%. Trade studies examined the effects of increased chamber pressure, reduced oxidizer-to-fuel ratio, and reduced pump diameter on performance. The analysis identified potential design changes that could increase performance for the SSME variant used on the upcoming Space Launch System, such as increasing chamber pressure or reducing oxidizer-to-fuel ratio, while maintaining affordability.
Determining the Pareto front of distributed generator and static VAR compens...IJECEIAES
The integration of distributed generators (DGs), which are based on renewable energy sources, energy storage systems, and static VAR compensators (SVCs), requires considering more challenging operational cases due to the variability of DG production contributed by different characteristics for different time sequences. The size, quantity, technology, and location of DG units have major effects on the system to benefit from the integration. All these aspects create a multi-objective scope; therefore, it is considered a multi-objective mixed-integer optimization problem. This paper presents an improved multi-objective salp swarm optimization algorithm (MOSSA) to obtain multiple Pareto efficient solutions for the optimal number, location, and capacity of DGs and the controlling strategy of SVC a radial distribution system. MOSSA is a bio-inspired optimizer based on swarm intelligence techniques and it is used in finding the optimal solution for a global optimization problem. Two sets of objective functions have been formulated minimizing DGs and SVC cost, voltage violation, energy losses, and system emission cost. The usefulness of the proposed MOSSA has been tested with the 33-bus and 141-bus radial distribution systems and the qualitative comparisons against two well-known algorithms, multiple objective evolutionary algorithms based on decomposition (MOEA/D), and multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm.
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the ETSAP-TIAM modelIEA-ETSAP
This document discusses facilitating further regional disaggregation of the TIAM energy-economic model. It proposes breaking highly aggregated regions into more detailed country or sub-national regions. A multi-step approach is outlined: 1) Develop base-year templates for new regions; 2) Update templates for original aggregated regions; 3) Add technology parameters for new regions; 4) Project energy service demands; 5) Update scenarios; 6) Revise trade sheets. The approach was tested successfully in developing a model for Germany from Western Europe. The regional disaggregation tool can help efficiently implement additional regional breakdowns in TIAM.
Integrating the TDBU-ETSAP models in MCP formatIEA-ETSAP
The document discusses integrating energy system optimization models like TIMES with macroeconomic models like MSA using the Mathematical Programming with Complementarity Constraints (MCP) format. Key points:
1) An operational version of MSA has been developed in MCP format and linked/tested with TIMES, producing the same results as the original optimization.
2) Formulating both TIMES and MSA in MCP allows them to be fully integrated while maintaining consistency. This has advantages like introducing multiple objective sectors.
3) Next steps include testing the integrated TIMES-MSA MCP model with other TIAM models and the decomposition algorithm, as well as exploring other integration approaches like linking CGE and T
This document presents a study investigating the use of desert sand as a medium for storing thermal energy in a high-temperature thermal energy storage system. The study outlines the design and testing of a prototype system consisting of three phases: charging, storing, and discharging. In the charging phase, oil is heated to 150°C and used to heat the sand over 58 minutes. In the storing phase, the sand loses only 12°C of heat over 5 hours, indicating high storage efficiency. In the discharging phase, cooled oil absorbs heat from the sand and generates 0.535V of electricity using a thermoelectric generator, achieving a discharge efficiency of 61%. The study demonstrates desert sand's potential as a low-cost and
Oilfield Modeling and Optimization of a Mature Field using Integrated Product...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes an integrated production modeling approach used to model and optimize a mature oilfield with two reservoirs and two wells. The modeling was done using Petroleum Experts' integrated production modeling toolkit, including reservoir modeling with MBAL, well modeling with PROSPER, and surface network modeling with GAP. The initial combined well production exceeded the separator capacity, so one well was choked back through optimization to achieve a balanced production rate within the separator limit. Over the forecast period from 2008 to 2030, the accumulated oil production was estimated to be 117 million stock tank barrels.
The JRC develops models to analyze the energy system and related sectors. It uses several models together including JRC-EU-TIMES for energy system optimization, Dispa-SET for power system unit commitment, and others for demand, resources, etc. JRC-EU-TIMES models pathways for low-carbon technologies meeting Energy Union objectives. It was improved with updated renewable potentials, power-to-gas, biomass integration, and sensitivity analysis of policies and technologies. Dispa-SET optimizes power dispatch and was integrated into JRC-EU-TIMES through statistical analysis of various power system configurations.
Developing the next generation of Real Time Optimization Technologies (Blend ...Alkis Vazacopoulos
This document introduces real-time blend optimization for petroleum refineries. It describes modeling multiple blending processes, component tanks, and products over multiple time periods to optimize blending across the refinery. This allows sharing components between blenders to produce on-specification products at lowest cost. It also integrates upstream process models to manipulate feedstock properties before blending. This helps avoid quantity and quality issues during blending and minimize costs.
The document summarizes the development of a new library called Ship Energy Systems for simulating and optimizing ship machinery systems. The library allows modeling of engines, generators, cooling systems and other auxiliary components. It facilitates variant analysis to optimize energy efficiency and quantify potential fuel savings. An example model of a medium-sized freight vessel is presented to demonstrate the library's capabilities. The library reduces the time needed for ship energy simulations compared to developing models from scratch.
Modelon JSME 2016 - Model Based Design for Fuel Cell SystemsModelon
Rui Gao presented on model-based design for fuel cell systems using Modelica. The presentation discussed modeling a hybrid SOFC system from a systems perspective using equation-based and object-oriented Modelica models that integrate multi-disciplinary physics. Subsystem tests were conducted on models of the preprocessor and micro gas turbine. Simulation results showed mass balance, fuel cell voltage-current characteristics, thermal losses, and AC power output. Model-based design was identified as a promising approach for smart grid system development to enable bidirectional power flow.
Sida LEAP Training Lecture #3 and #4: Energy Supply and Emissions ModelingweADAPT
Eight lectures were delivered in 2021 as a series of webinars organized by SEI, with support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation agency (Sida). Delivered by Jason Veysey and Charlotte Wagner of SEI.
This presentation is for lectures #3 and 4: Energy Supply and Emissions Modeling.
Find out more about this course here: https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/synergies-between-adaptation-and-mitigation/introductory-low-emissions-analysis-platform-leap-training-course-2021
Paper design and optimizaton of steam distribution systems for steam power pl...Tony Lewis
This document presents a methodology for optimizing the design of steam distribution networks (SDNs) for steam power plants. The methodology formulates the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to minimize total annualized cost. The model determines the optimal structure, configuration, and operation of the SDN as well as its interaction with the heat recovery system. Case studies are used to demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of the proposed simultaneous optimization approach.
The Scarabeus project, funded by the European Commission, seeks to reduce carbon emissions in solar thermal plants by introducing novel supercritical CO2 cycles in solar thermal plants. Abengoa participates in the project along with eight other partners, including universities and companies, from six different countries.
IRJET- Cloud Cost Analyzer and OptimizerIRJET Journal
This document proposes a system to monitor virtual machines (VMs or EC2 instances) on private clouds like Amazon or Google and provide solutions to reduce infrastructure costs from the customer's perspective. The system would monitor EC2 VM usage, performance metrics, and the customer's current cloud cost plan. It aims to optimize resource usage and save costs by proposing reductions to resources or cost plans. The system is designed to build a test bed using an Amazon account to connect to a user's resources and fetch performance data like RAM, CPU usage. It would then calculate pricing for storage, CPU usage, requests and other metrics to estimate overall setup costs and find opportunities for cost optimization.
About this Training Course
To provide attendees with a detailed understanding of the calculations required to evaluate the performance of a
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Power Plant. Provide an understanding of the requirements as regards implementing a successful performance evaluation strategy for a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant
Key Learning Outcome
Performance Test Calculations
Power Output/Heat Rate Calculations
Correction Factors
Performance Monitoring
Performance Diagnostics
Performance Improvements
Combined Cycle GT Plant Overview
Performance Terms and Definitions
Brayton Cycle
Rankine Cycle
Combined Cycle
Performance Test Objectives
Uncertainty Analysis
Who Should Attend
This course would be ideal for any engineer requiring an understanding of the thermodynamic calculations required to assess the performance of a CCGT Power Plant. Attendees would be encouraged to bring their own plant data for discussion during the course.
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionIEA-ETSAP
Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Ding Qiuyu, UCL Energy Institute
16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsIEA-ETSAP
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
Mr. Till ben Brahim, Energy Modelling Lab, Denmark
16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino
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Determining the Pareto front of distributed generator and static VAR compens...IJECEIAES
The integration of distributed generators (DGs), which are based on renewable energy sources, energy storage systems, and static VAR compensators (SVCs), requires considering more challenging operational cases due to the variability of DG production contributed by different characteristics for different time sequences. The size, quantity, technology, and location of DG units have major effects on the system to benefit from the integration. All these aspects create a multi-objective scope; therefore, it is considered a multi-objective mixed-integer optimization problem. This paper presents an improved multi-objective salp swarm optimization algorithm (MOSSA) to obtain multiple Pareto efficient solutions for the optimal number, location, and capacity of DGs and the controlling strategy of SVC a radial distribution system. MOSSA is a bio-inspired optimizer based on swarm intelligence techniques and it is used in finding the optimal solution for a global optimization problem. Two sets of objective functions have been formulated minimizing DGs and SVC cost, voltage violation, energy losses, and system emission cost. The usefulness of the proposed MOSSA has been tested with the 33-bus and 141-bus radial distribution systems and the qualitative comparisons against two well-known algorithms, multiple objective evolutionary algorithms based on decomposition (MOEA/D), and multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm.
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This document discusses facilitating further regional disaggregation of the TIAM energy-economic model. It proposes breaking highly aggregated regions into more detailed country or sub-national regions. A multi-step approach is outlined: 1) Develop base-year templates for new regions; 2) Update templates for original aggregated regions; 3) Add technology parameters for new regions; 4) Project energy service demands; 5) Update scenarios; 6) Revise trade sheets. The approach was tested successfully in developing a model for Germany from Western Europe. The regional disaggregation tool can help efficiently implement additional regional breakdowns in TIAM.
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The document discusses integrating energy system optimization models like TIMES with macroeconomic models like MSA using the Mathematical Programming with Complementarity Constraints (MCP) format. Key points:
1) An operational version of MSA has been developed in MCP format and linked/tested with TIMES, producing the same results as the original optimization.
2) Formulating both TIMES and MSA in MCP allows them to be fully integrated while maintaining consistency. This has advantages like introducing multiple objective sectors.
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This document summarizes an integrated production modeling approach used to model and optimize a mature oilfield with two reservoirs and two wells. The modeling was done using Petroleum Experts' integrated production modeling toolkit, including reservoir modeling with MBAL, well modeling with PROSPER, and surface network modeling with GAP. The initial combined well production exceeded the separator capacity, so one well was choked back through optimization to achieve a balanced production rate within the separator limit. Over the forecast period from 2008 to 2030, the accumulated oil production was estimated to be 117 million stock tank barrels.
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Eight lectures were delivered in 2021 as a series of webinars organized by SEI, with support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation agency (Sida). Delivered by Jason Veysey and Charlotte Wagner of SEI.
This presentation is for lectures #3 and 4: Energy Supply and Emissions Modeling.
Find out more about this course here: https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/synergies-between-adaptation-and-mitigation/introductory-low-emissions-analysis-platform-leap-training-course-2021
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Performance Terms and Definitions
Brayton Cycle
Rankine Cycle
Combined Cycle
Performance Test Objectives
Uncertainty Analysis
Who Should Attend
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M2T Starter Model - A Rethink of How to Get New Users Going
1. ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model
Rethinking the New User Experience
DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment
Presented by
Gary Goldstein
67th Semi-Annual IEA-ETSAP Meeting
June 2, 2015
Abu Dhabi, UAE
2. • Why a new approach?
• Morphing the USEPA MARKAL US9r Templates
• Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
• Completing the TIMES-Starter Model
• Updating the ANSWER ver2 “Smart” VBA code
• Revamping of the (ANSWER-TIMES) Training Course
• Roadmap for New Users to Build Their Model
• What might follow
Presentation Outline
2ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
3. • The current ETSAP approach to introducing TIMES to new users is based upon a
“Getting Started” training course that does a good job of explaining the building blocks
of TIMES, and teaching participants how to operate VEDA and ANSWER, but really
doesn’t provide the new user with a starting point and roadmap for assembling their
own TIMES model.
• A different approach is proposed where new users are familiarized with the
fundamentals of TIMES, and VEDA/ANSWER, but then use a "best practices" TIMES
model assembled from the publicly available USEPA US9r MARKAL model.
• This thus provides a well documented (and vetted) data repository for default
technology characterizations, in particular for future technologies, as well as
international fuel prices and most everything needed for a full-blown TIMES model.
• In addition, the core modeling practices and mechanisms needed to prepare a
professional TIMES model are embodied in a "Starter" model, that is (intelligently
organized) customizable templates provide examples of:
– load duration curve preparation;
– calibration (to an energy balance) & establishment of the initial technology stock;
– demand drivers & projections, and
– guiding the Reference scenario.
• ANSWER & VEDA templates have grown closer in terms of layout, and with
VEDA’s flexibility a single common model and training course could be developed.
Why a New Approach?
3ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
4. Morphing the USEPA MARKAL US9r Templates –
Workbook Layout
4ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
Worksheet Description
ANSv6.8/9-Home
ANSWER-TIMES template sheet that is used to add new ANSWER-TIMES smart sheet to the
current workbook, or turn an existing XLS/XLSM into a "smart" workbook. [Note that the Ver-
1 workbooks all begin with AT_ and the Ver-2 workbooks with AT2_.]
SETUP
Mapping of EPA-US9r/other names to TIMES NewTech names and removal of unwanted
items, emission factors, and USD price conversion factors.
REGIONS Description of Regions for the Database where this instance of the New Techs will be used.
Commodities
Energy carriers, emissions, materials are defined by their name, description, units and set
memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. In Ver-1 templates commodity groups may
also be declared. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases. [Some Ver-1
templates have an ITEMS sheet that contains both commodity and process declarations.]
Processes
Process technologies are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be
used in the rest of the sheets. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet, in most cases.
[Some Ver-1 templates have an ITEMS sheet that contains both commodity and process
declarations.]
CommData
A sheet with the data for commodities in the sector (mostly used for mapping sector
emissions to overall emissions and providing "dummy" demand levels and load timings .
ProcData_<nature> One or more sheets with the data for all technologies in the sector.
EPA/ETSAP/PIEM/KISR
/EC/other_<sheet>
Declaration and data sheets from the EPA-US9r/ETSAP eTech-DS/Pak-IEM/Kuwait-RE/Energy
Community-EE databases providing the source values for the NewTech.
5. Morphing the USEPA MARKAL US9r Templates –
Mapping MARKAL to TIMES
5ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
6. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Current Suite of Templates
6ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
7. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Organizing the RES
7ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
8. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Energy Carrier Naming Conversions
8ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
Energy
Carrier Root
Description
Energy Carrier
Qualifier
Description
COA Coal BIO Biomass
GAS Natural Gas HRD Hard Coal
NUK Nuclear DSL Diesel
OIL Oil and Oil Products GEO Geothermal
RNW Renewables HYD Hydro
Other Will be added as needed KER Kerosene
LFG Land Filling Gas
Energy
Carrier Sector
Description LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
AGR To Agriculture sector LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
COM To Commercial sector MSW Municipal Solid Waste
IND To Industrial sector NGA Natural Gas
PWR To Electric Generation OIL Diesel Oil
RSD To Residential sector RFO Residual Fuel Oil
SUP Supply & Imports SOL Solar
TRN To Transportation sector WAS Waste
WID Wind
URN Uranium
Others Will be added as needed
9. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Power Plant Naming Conversions
9ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
Plant Type Plant Identifier Energy Carrier Identifier Technology Identifier
Power plant E Three character identifier, see
Commodity naming table
Two to five character identifier, see
Plant Technology tableCO2 Capture Retrofit SCR
Plant Type Plant Identifier Technology Identifier Energy Carrier Identifier
Combined Heat and
Power
ECHP
Three character identifier, see
Plant Technology table
Three character identifier, see
Commodity naming table
Plant Technology Identifier Description
STM Coal Steam
ASTM Advanced Coal Steam
IGC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
CT Combustion Turbine
CC Combined Cycle
ACT Advanced Combustion Turbine
ACC Advanced Combined Cycle
BFS Binary Cycle and Flashed Steam
CEN Centralized Generation
ST Solar Thermal
BST Boiler Steam Turbine
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
IGCCS Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle CO2 capture
CCCCS Combined Cycle CO2 Capture
LWR Light Water Reactor
VVER Russian Nuclear Reactor
SMR Small Modular reactor
10. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Demand Sectors
10ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
11. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Handling Industry
11ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
12. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Transportation
12ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
13. Organization of the TIMES-Starter Model
Aligning Templates & ANSWER Scenarios
13ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
14. Organization of the ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model
Running a Case
14ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
15. Completing the ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model (1/3)
15ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
1. Existing Technology/Calibration
o From EPA US9r, provide RESIDs & retirement profile, and adjust performance/costs
o Preparing the load duration curve and determining appropriate timesices
2. Demand Projections
o SSP template, drivers/elasticities/aeei/etc shaping projection (with EPA DEMs)
o Demand-REF linkages (fyi) - needs to be linked in to the Turkey EXIST appropriately
for 1st year info (except 1st Copy file)
3. Reference Scenario Guidance
o MKTSHR fuel/technology shares (using FLO_MARK)
o NewTech penetration control
• Hurdle rates
• New technology uptake via growth
• Cross-tech limits
4. Additional NewTech Options
o RE and other missing PPs
o Get NUKE data from Armenia model (CANDU/SMRs/Russian VVER)
o Retrofits and conservation for COM&RSD
16. Completing the ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model (2/3)
16ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
5. Basic Scenarios
For the S_scenario workbooks the table levels are set either via VBE UpdateXLS or
Copy/Paste with an array calculation target levels over time, where the resulting values
are manually copied into the corresponding ANSWER scenario's parameters.
a) Managing ANSWER Scenarios
o As discussed earlier, while may use XLS to setup scenarios, often easiest to just enter
direction into ANSWER-TIMES as alternate scenarios
o Non-base nature of NewTech means most copy any commodity/process declaration
(only) that is to be adjusted.
b) Energy System Policies
o Emission caps (using VBE UpdateXLS table), taxes, cum limits
o RE, EE targets (using VBE UpdateXLS table)
o Limiting nuclear (or any other option)
17. Completing the ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model (3/3)
17ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
6. The Starter Model VBE Database
Reference Using VEDA-BE with ANSWER-TIMES manual
o Reference the AT VBE guidance DOC
o List of sets
o List of Tables
o Augmenting the database
7. Using the Analytics Scenario Comparison VBA Graphing Excel Workbook
Reference the AnalyticsXLS guidance DOC
o Organization of NT Tables
o Managing scenarios
o Selecting graphs
o Preparing a Metrics table
8. Some Advanced TIMES Features
o CHPs
o Lumpy (Discrete) Investments
o Storage technologies
o UC growth constraint + UC total
o Elastic Demands
o Other DemoS techniques
18. Updating the ANSWER ver2 “Smart” VBA code
18ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
1. Overview
o New ver2 ANSWER-TIMES Smart XLSM offers similar philosophy and format to
ANSWER-MARKAL Smart XLSM in which USEPA US9r model is expressed
o Ver2 has Commodities, Processes, CommData and ProcData “smart” worksheets,
does not have Constraints or ConstrData “smart” worksheets
2. Enhancements needed to VBA code
o Improve handling of process parameters that have CG (Commodity Group)
arguments: best achieved by introducing CommGroups “smart” worksheet , and
modifying ProcData sheet accordingly?
o Remove ProcData sheet restriction that CommIN and CommOUT commodities for a
process must be specified on different rows (some TIMES parameters can be input
or output commodities)
o Useful to introduce Constraints and ConstrData “smart” worksheets?
3. Other enhancements needed
o Update ANSWER-TIMES EXE to handle Import of new/changed “smart” worksheets
o Update ver2 Smart Excel Workbook Manual
o Create small demonstration ver2 Smart Excel Workbook and associated ANSWER-
TIMES database
19. • Rename templates & change country name in each
• Plug in their energy balance
• Tailor the RES to their situation by eliminating and perhaps adding
commodities/process not of interest/relevant or missing
• Adjust the timeslices (setup with 4-seasons, 3 time-of-days)
• Adjust their demand drivers
• Decide if the defaults work or need to be adjusted for the Reference
guidance mechanisms (e.g., fuel switching & rate of new technology
penetration controls)
• Introduce all known coming new builds
• Introduce all future policies on the books, and Run and refine the
calibration
• Introduce all physical limits on resources (e.g., refine the supply
curves, set renewable potentials)
• Run and refine the Reference scenario
• Do any necessary refining to the VBE SnT (and Analytics workbook)
• Set the values for the standard policy scenarios provided and run
Roadmap for New Users to Build Their Model
19ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
20. Training material updated to use the (common) TIMES-Starter model as part
of having a single standard training model
• 1st day am - joint session on modeling & TIMES, plus quickly showing of
the TIMES-Starter platform components
• 1st day pm - split into [VFE/]ANSWER groups to learn basics
• 2nd day am - common VBE (&AnalyticsXLS/other analysis tools) session
• 2nd day pm - build a simple model hands on in [VFE/]ANSWER (and VBE)
• 3rd day am - learn about TIMES-Starter philosophy & components, plus
guidebook for tailoring models*
• 3rd day pm – [VFE/]ANSWER TIMES-Starter "exercise“*
• Recording of training course and/or preparing a series of "How To" videos
for webcasts [proposal to be submitted by Gary/Evelyn Nov'15-June'16]
* Within scope of the initial ETSAP TIMES-Starter proposal
Revamping the ETSAP (ANSWER-TIMES) Training
Course
20ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience
21. • ETSAP Partners establish developing country instances of the TIMES-Starter model
(ANSWER) to jumpstart efforts of new users by providing an even more relevant starting
point (e.g., only appropriate technology mix, adjusted characteristics, adjusted RES
closer to those energy balances & sector/services). [parallel proposal submitted -
ECN/DWG to do a Starter-Argentina model]
• VEDA-FE templates - the ANSWER and VEDA TIMES templates have evolved over time to
be quite similar in structure for many of the core model needs (other than user
constraints and scenario files), so morph the initial ANSWER TIMES-Starter model for
VFE. [proposal to be submitted – Mauri/Gary Nov'15-June'16]
• Completion of “merged” VEDA/ANSWER training course [proposal to be submitted –
Mauri/Gary/Ken, Amit June-Oct’16]
• Prepare more training/remote learning videos.
• eTech-DS connect - once the eTech-DS has a set of downloadable data ready for
incorporation directly into TIMES models these could be (easily) added to the NewTech
part of the TIMES-Starter templates.
• Expand the approach for incorporating well documented data by looking into linking
with other (public) databases (e.g., EDGAR emissions data, IRENA renewables,
USDOE/EPA, USGS, Worldbank, UN ESA, aggregated UDI/Platts).
• Add "smart" assist VBA similar to ANSWER for VFE templates. [up to Amit]
• Add (more) VBA code to the templates (for both ANSWER/VFE ) to enhance the ease
with which the RES underlying the model can be customized (e.g., replicate/remove
subsector).
What Might Follow
21ETSAP TIMES-Starter Model – Rethinking the New User Experience