1) Useful work, not just capital and labor, should be considered a factor of production to better explain historical economic growth.
2) Future economic growth and emissions reductions depend on accelerating gains in energy and exergy efficiency. Policies that reduce the energy intensity of GDP can lead to continued growth with lower total energy use.
3) Empirical data shows experience curve effects where the technical efficiency of energy resources like coal, oil, and gas has improved over time with increasing cumulative production. Maintaining past rates of efficiency improvement can enable economic growth alongside emissions reductions.
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
What role does energy, and specifically oil play in the economy? What impact on growth can we expect a decline in oil production to have? When is the decline in production likely to happen? What can we do to mitigate the worst impacts?
IChemE President, Ian Shott\'s Presidential Address slides, as delivered on 13 May 2009.
To download the full text of the Presidential address, Accelerated Evolution:
Chemical engineers and the survival of the fittest –
capitalising on the bioscience revolution, visit www.icheme.org/presidentialaddresspdf
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
What role does energy, and specifically oil play in the economy? What impact on growth can we expect a decline in oil production to have? When is the decline in production likely to happen? What can we do to mitigate the worst impacts?
IChemE President, Ian Shott\'s Presidential Address slides, as delivered on 13 May 2009.
To download the full text of the Presidential address, Accelerated Evolution:
Chemical engineers and the survival of the fittest –
capitalising on the bioscience revolution, visit www.icheme.org/presidentialaddresspdf
Presentation from James Quinn, the head of North American Programs for the Institute for Industrial Productivity (IIP) from the Sharing Energy Efficiency Policy Experience for Key Energy-Consuming Enterprises Workshop in Beijing, China February 20, 2012.
Summary of the workshop:
To facilitate best practice sharing for the implementation of the Top 10,000 Enterprise Program, the Institute for Industrial Productivity co-organized a workshop in collaboration with the China Energy Conservation Association, the China Sustainable Energy Program (Energy Foundation) and the Energy Research Institute (ERI). The workshop convened Chinese policy-makers and international experts. International experts presented different policy approaches that have been (or are currently being) implemented in Australia and in the US, and discussed with Chinese policymakers and think tanks what and how these approaches might be helpful for China.
While the design of the Top-10,000 program has been outlined, details for its implementation will be the subject of much discussion in the coming months. Key questions include: what type of technical support for enterprises is the most appropriate? How can the government play an effective role in monitoring and verifying the results? Is there a role for market-based mechanisms?
More information: http://www.iipnetwork.org/our-recent-activities#workshopbj
Presented by Inger Andersen at the Copenhagen Sustainability Lecture "Greening development: Moving towards Rio+20 and beyond", 7 March 2011. Inger Andersen has overall responsibility for the World Bank’s work in agriculture, climate change, the environment, energy, transport, urban development, social development, and water supply and sanitation.
Subject:
Presented by:
Presented to:
Energy Markets, Forecast
Richard Newell, Administrator
The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
Washington, DC – December 16, 2010
WBCSD Access to Energy Initiative - Summary presentationfveglio
Addressing the lack of access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for billions of people is one of the world’s most critical development challenges and is becoming increasing prominent on the international agenda. The WBCSD Access to Energy Initiative helps business and other key stakeholders understand how the business contribution to access to energy can be maximized. The Initiative is co-chaired by GDF SUEZ, Schneider Electric and ERM, and has 21 member companies actively engaged in its core group. The Initiative focuses on the key opportunity areas to scaling the business contribution: innovative business models, enabling policy frameworks and financing mechanisms. Collaboration and partnerships are key cross-cutting enablers.
Presentation from James Quinn, the head of North American Programs for the Institute for Industrial Productivity (IIP) from the Sharing Energy Efficiency Policy Experience for Key Energy-Consuming Enterprises Workshop in Beijing, China February 20, 2012.
Summary of the workshop:
To facilitate best practice sharing for the implementation of the Top 10,000 Enterprise Program, the Institute for Industrial Productivity co-organized a workshop in collaboration with the China Energy Conservation Association, the China Sustainable Energy Program (Energy Foundation) and the Energy Research Institute (ERI). The workshop convened Chinese policy-makers and international experts. International experts presented different policy approaches that have been (or are currently being) implemented in Australia and in the US, and discussed with Chinese policymakers and think tanks what and how these approaches might be helpful for China.
While the design of the Top-10,000 program has been outlined, details for its implementation will be the subject of much discussion in the coming months. Key questions include: what type of technical support for enterprises is the most appropriate? How can the government play an effective role in monitoring and verifying the results? Is there a role for market-based mechanisms?
More information: http://www.iipnetwork.org/our-recent-activities#workshopbj
Presented by Inger Andersen at the Copenhagen Sustainability Lecture "Greening development: Moving towards Rio+20 and beyond", 7 March 2011. Inger Andersen has overall responsibility for the World Bank’s work in agriculture, climate change, the environment, energy, transport, urban development, social development, and water supply and sanitation.
Subject:
Presented by:
Presented to:
Energy Markets, Forecast
Richard Newell, Administrator
The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
Washington, DC – December 16, 2010
WBCSD Access to Energy Initiative - Summary presentationfveglio
Addressing the lack of access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for billions of people is one of the world’s most critical development challenges and is becoming increasing prominent on the international agenda. The WBCSD Access to Energy Initiative helps business and other key stakeholders understand how the business contribution to access to energy can be maximized. The Initiative is co-chaired by GDF SUEZ, Schneider Electric and ERM, and has 21 member companies actively engaged in its core group. The Initiative focuses on the key opportunity areas to scaling the business contribution: innovative business models, enabling policy frameworks and financing mechanisms. Collaboration and partnerships are key cross-cutting enablers.
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesBenjamin Warr
Conventional economic theory assumes that technological progress is exogenous and that resource consumption is a consequence, not a cause, of growth. The reality is more complex. In effect energy consumption is just as much a driver or economic growth as it is a consequence.
Normal Labour/ Stages of Labour/ Mechanism of LabourWasim Ak
Normal labor is also termed spontaneous labor, defined as the natural physiological process through which the fetus, placenta, and membranes are expelled from the uterus through the birth canal at term (37 to 42 weeks
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxtimhan337
Personal development courses are widely available today, with each one promising life-changing outcomes. Tim Han’s Life Mastery Achievers (LMA) Course has drawn a lot of interest. In addition to offering my frank assessment of Success Insider’s LMA Course, this piece examines the course’s effects via a variety of Tim Han LMA course reviews and Success Insider comments.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Safalta Digital marketing institute in Noida, provide complete applications that encompass a huge range of virtual advertising and marketing additives, which includes search engine optimization, virtual communication advertising, pay-per-click on marketing, content material advertising, internet analytics, and greater. These university courses are designed for students who possess a comprehensive understanding of virtual marketing strategies and attributes.Safalta Digital Marketing Institute in Noida is a first choice for young individuals or students who are looking to start their careers in the field of digital advertising. The institute gives specialized courses designed and certification.
for beginners, providing thorough training in areas such as SEO, digital communication marketing, and PPC training in Noida. After finishing the program, students receive the certifications recognised by top different universitie, setting a strong foundation for a successful career in digital marketing.
1. Lund 29th October 2009
Dr Benjamin Warr
INSEAD Social Innovation Centre
The Economic Growth
Engine
2. The problem
How to avoid an economic collapse
while simultaneously cutting carbon-
emissions?
3. Summary
• Access to energy is essential for prosperity
• Understanding the role of efficiency for growth is
critical
• Some problems with neoclassical growth theory
• Overview of resource exergy utilisation analysis
• An example of modelling economic growth with
useful work as a factor of production
• Forecasts using the Resource Exergy Services
(REXS) model
4. Energy, Exergy and Useful Work
• Energy is conserved, except in nuclear reactions. This is
the First Law of thermodynamics.
• But the output energy is always less available to do useful
work than the input. This is the Second Law of
thermodynamics, sometimes called the entropy law.
• Energy available to do useful work is exergy.
• Capital is inert. It must be activated. Most economists
regard labour as the activating agent.
• Labour (by humans and/or animals) was once the only
source of useful work in the economy.
• But machines (and computers) require another activating
agent, namely exergy.
• The economy converts exergy into useful work
5. Tracking energy use and emissions by task
Sources: WRI, CAIT, IPCC – data for 2000
6. Exergy input share by source, (UK 1900-2000)
100%
80%
Biomass
60%
Renewables and
Nuclear
40% Gas
Oil
20% Resource Substitution
From Coal, to Oil, Gas then Renewables and Coal
Nuclear
0%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
7. Exergy to Useful Work, via efficiency
3
1 2
EXERGY INPUT x EFFICIENCY USEFUL WORK
WASTE EXERGY
(OFTEN LOW QUALITY HEAT OR POLLUTION)
THIS FRACTION IS NOT
PRODUCTIVE
EXCLUDE IT FROM
PRODUCTION FUNCTION
8. Exergy conversion efficiencies (US 1900-2005)
40%
35%
Electricity Generation
30% High Temperature Heat
Efficiency (%)
25%
Mid Temperature Heat
20%
15%
10% Mechanical Work
5% Low Temperature Heat
Muscle Work
0%
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
Year
9. Useful work by type (US 1900-2005)
100%
Muscle Work
Non-Fuel
80%
60%
share (%)
Mechanical Work
40% Electricity
20% High Temperature Heat
Low Temperature Heat
0%
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
year
10. Economy
• Since the first industrial revolution, human and
animal labour have been increasingly replaced by
machines powered by the combustion of fossil
fuels.
• Technological progress in mechanisation increases
the work output per unit exergy consumed.
• MORE WORK FOR THE SAME EFFORT
• This strongly suggests that useful work should be
factor of production, along with conventional capital
and labour.
11. Economy-wide exergy to useful work
conversion efficiency Evidence of stagnation –
25% Pollution controls,
Technological barriers
High Population Density
Ageing capital stock
Industrialised Socio-
Wealth effects
20% ecological regime
Japan
Resource limited
efficiency (%)
15%
US
10%
UK Low Population Density
Industrialised New
5% World Socio-ecological
regime
Resource abundant
0%
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
year
12. Exergy Intensity of GDP Indicator
60
•Distinct grouping of
US countries by level, but
50 similar trajectory
•Evidence of convergence in
EJ / trillion $US PPP
40 latter half of century
UK •Slowing decline
30
20
Japan
10
0
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
year
13. Useful work Intensity of GDP Indicator
3,5
3
US
2,5
EJ / trillion $US PPP
2 UK
1,5
1 1970 to 1973 structural
Japan
change stimulated by price
0,5 spike, but with continuing
effect, despite subsequent
price decline.
0
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
year
14. CO2 intensity of useful work
CO2/useful work [tC/TJ]
500
USA Japan
UK Austria
400
300
200
100
0
1900
1915
1930
1945
1960
1975
1990
2005
15. Problems with growth theory
• No link to the physical economy, only capital and
labour are productive.
• Energy, materials and wastes are ignored.
• Unable to explain historic growth rates.
• Exogenous unexplained technological progress is
assumed, hence growth will continue.
• Endogenous growth theory based on ‘Human
knowledge capital’ is unquantifiable – there are no
metrics.
16. Neo-classical estimates of GDP
exponents at factor cost (US 1900-2005)
35
empirical estimate
30
Multiplier effect or technological
progress accounts for 1.5% per
25 annum, in 2005 technology has a
GDP index (1900 = 1)
multiplier effect of 4.8
78% of
20
Solow “technological observed
development will be the motor for growth is
15 economic growth in the long run”. unexplained
BUT IT IS UNDEFINED AND
10
UNMEASURABLE The Solow Residual
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
17. Exergy-Efficiency-GDP Feedbacks
Learning
Exergy Intensity Exergy Demand -by-doing
of GDP
and Production
Capital accumulation Efficiency
GDP growth
Improvements
Useful Work
Consumption
18. Ayres-Warr Estimates of GDP
60
35
Japan
USA
30
50
25
40
GDP (1900=1)
20
empirical
30
estimate
15
20
10
10
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
19. What effect policies to reduce energy intensity of
GDP?
30
Historical rate of decline in
25 exergy intensity of GDP is r/gdp
1.2% per annum e/gdp
20
index
15
10
5
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
20. What effect policies to reduce energy intensity of
GDP?
120
For Business-as-Usual,
1.2% per annum
(1.2% decay rate) – by
1.3% per annum
100 2025 GDP doubles and
1.4% per annum
1.5% per annum
exergy inputs increase
empirical
by half over 2008.
80
With a 1.4% decay rate
GDP (1900=1)
output doubles ~10 years
60 later, but for much
reduced total energy use.
40
20
0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
year
25. Efficiency Scenarios
Possible trajectories for conversion efficiency
0.35
Efficiency growth
0.3 low
mid Low 0.4% p.a.
high Mid 0.72% p.a.
0.25
technical efficiency (f)
empirical
High 1.2% p.a.
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
year
26. Resulting trajectories for GDP
70
Efficiency growth GDP growth (2030)
60 low
Low 0.4% per annum -2.0%
mid
high High 1.2% per annum 2.2%
50
empirical
GDP (1900=1)
40 For efficiency growth smaller
than 1% p.a. we observe a
30
future decline in GDP, where
the historical rate is ~1.1%
p.a.
20
10
0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
year
27. Summary
•Neoclassical growth theory does not explain growth
•If useful work as a factor of production past growth can
be explained well.
•Economic growth need not be a constant percentage
of GDP. It can be negative.
•Future sustainable growth in the face of peak oil
depends on accelerating energy (exergy) efficiency
gains.
•Future efficiency gains may be inexpensive if existing
double dividend possibilities are exploited
• But strong evidence of stagnation