Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
What role does energy, and specifically oil play in the economy? What impact on growth can we expect a decline in oil production to have? When is the decline in production likely to happen? What can we do to mitigate the worst impacts?
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesBenjamin Warr
Conventional economic theory assumes that technological progress is exogenous and that resource consumption is a consequence, not a cause, of growth. The reality is more complex. In effect energy consumption is just as much a driver or economic growth as it is a consequence.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
Kyiv PMDay 2024 Summer
Website – www.pmday.org
Youtube – https://www.youtube.com/startuplviv
FB – https://www.facebook.com/pmdayconference
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
Skye Residences | Extended Stay Residences Near Toronto Airportmarketingjdass
Experience unparalleled EXTENDED STAY and comfort at Skye Residences located just minutes from Toronto Airport. Discover sophisticated accommodations tailored for discerning travelers.
Website Link :
https://skyeresidences.com/
https://skyeresidences.com/about-us/
https://skyeresidences.com/gallery/
https://skyeresidences.com/rooms/
https://skyeresidences.com/near-by-attractions/
https://skyeresidences.com/commute/
https://skyeresidences.com/contact/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-and-balcony/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-king-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
#Skye Residences Etobicoke, #Skye Residences Near Toronto Airport, #Skye Residences Toronto, #Skye Hotel Toronto, #Skye Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Near Toronto Airport Accommodation, #Suites Near Toronto Airport, #Etobicoke Suites Near Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Pearson International Airport, #Toronto Airport Suite Rentals, #Pearson Airport Hotel Suites
Insead Alumni Energy Network 22nd October 2011 by Benjamin WarrBenjamin Warr
What role does energy, and specifically oil play in the economy? What impact on growth can we expect a decline in oil production to have? When is the decline in production likely to happen? What can we do to mitigate the worst impacts?
Economic Growth Models and the Role of Physical ResourcesBenjamin Warr
Conventional economic theory assumes that technological progress is exogenous and that resource consumption is a consequence, not a cause, of growth. The reality is more complex. In effect energy consumption is just as much a driver or economic growth as it is a consequence.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
Kyiv PMDay 2024 Summer
Website – www.pmday.org
Youtube – https://www.youtube.com/startuplviv
FB – https://www.facebook.com/pmdayconference
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
Skye Residences | Extended Stay Residences Near Toronto Airportmarketingjdass
Experience unparalleled EXTENDED STAY and comfort at Skye Residences located just minutes from Toronto Airport. Discover sophisticated accommodations tailored for discerning travelers.
Website Link :
https://skyeresidences.com/
https://skyeresidences.com/about-us/
https://skyeresidences.com/gallery/
https://skyeresidences.com/rooms/
https://skyeresidences.com/near-by-attractions/
https://skyeresidences.com/commute/
https://skyeresidences.com/contact/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-and-balcony/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-king-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
#Skye Residences Etobicoke, #Skye Residences Near Toronto Airport, #Skye Residences Toronto, #Skye Hotel Toronto, #Skye Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Near Toronto Airport Accommodation, #Suites Near Toronto Airport, #Etobicoke Suites Near Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Pearson International Airport, #Toronto Airport Suite Rentals, #Pearson Airport Hotel Suites
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n PrintNavpack & Print
Looking for professional printing services in Jaipur? Navpack n Print offers high-quality and affordable stationery printing for all your business needs. Stand out with custom stationery designs and fast turnaround times. Contact us today for a quote!
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviewsusawebmarket
Buy Verified PayPal Account
Looking to buy verified PayPal accounts? Discover 7 expert tips for safely purchasing a verified PayPal account in 2024. Ensure security and reliability for your transactions.
PayPal Services Features-
🟢 Email Access
🟢 Bank Added
🟢 Card Verified
🟢 Full SSN Provided
🟢 Phone Number Access
🟢 Driving License Copy
🟢 Fasted Delivery
Client Satisfaction is Our First priority. Our services is very appropriate to buy. We assume that the first-rate way to purchase our offerings is to order on the website. If you have any worry in our cooperation usually You can order us on Skype or Telegram.
24/7 Hours Reply/Please Contact
usawebmarketEmail: support@usawebmarket.com
Skype: usawebmarket
Telegram: @usawebmarket
WhatsApp: +1(218) 203-5951
USA WEB MARKET is the Best Verified PayPal, Payoneer, Cash App, Skrill, Neteller, Stripe Account and SEO, SMM Service provider.100%Satisfection granted.100% replacement Granted.
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Warr 2nd Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
1. 2nd IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting
27th –28th April 2003, Vienna
Center for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER)
INSEAD
Boulevard de Constance
Fontainebleau
77300
http://benjamin.warr.free.fr
An introduction to a simple endogenous
evolutionary model of macro-economic
growth called REXS
2. Objectives
Foresight with the wisdom of hindsight
Most projection methods rely on exogenous
assumptions of “factor productivity” or
“technological progress”.
• Avoid assumption of exogenous technology &
factor productivity growth
• Identify productive role of natural resource
consumption
• Bridge gap between “bottom-up” and “top-
down” models
3. Overview
• A. What is current ‘common’ practice ?
• B. How does our model work ?
– i. (Labour Quality & Services)
– ii. (Capital Accumulation & Services)
– iii. Technology and Energy (Exergy) Services
• C. What does our model predict ?
A First Test
• The effects of a declining energy intensity of
output, on future rates of technical efficiency
and output growth.
4. Common practice
Y t = Q ( A t , H t K t , G t L t , F t R t ),
Y t = A t (H t K ) (G t L t ) (F t R t )
α β γ
t
Yt is output at time t, given by Q a function of,
• Kt, Lt, Rt, inputs of capital, labour and natural resource
services.
• β and γ are parameters
• At is total factor productivity
• Ht, Ft, Gt, coefficients of factor quality
Output growth is a function of
• increases in quantity of factors (k, l, r)
• increases in factor quality (f, g, m) – UNDEFINED &
EXOGENOUS
• technology factor productivity (a)- UNDEFINED & EXOGENOUS
• (changes in resource allocation – i.e. sectoral activity)
∂Y 1 ∂Q
Q ∂A a + β (h + k ) + γ ( g + l ) + (1 − β − γ )( f + r )
=
∂t
5. How does our model work
Yt = Q(K t , Lt , Rt ), either Cobb-Douglas or LINEX
Yt = (K t ) (Lt ) (Ft Rt ) = K tα Lβ U tγ
α β γ
t
L + U L
Yt = U expa 2 −
+ ab − 1
K U
• At the ‘total factor productivity’ is REMOVED
• Rt natural resource services replaced by U
• Ft technical efficiency of energy to work conversion
• (H – hedonic pricing and G - hourly compensation in
later versions of the model)
• α, β, γ (or in LINEX a, b, c) are empirically estimated
‘constant’ parameters
6. Labour supply feedback dynamics
Labour
Labour Hire Labour Fire
Rate Rate
<Time>
Fr actional Fr actional
Labour Hire Rate Labour Fire Rate
A A
Structural Shift Structural Shift
Time C Time D
Fr actional Fr actional
Labour Hire Rate Labour Fire Rate
B B
Parameters for USA 1900-2000
• Structural Shift Time C=1959, Structural Shift Time D=1920
• F Labour Fire Rate A=0.108, F Labour Fire Rate B=0.120
• F Labour Hire Rate A=0.124 F Labour Hire Rate B=0.135
7. Labour “hire and fire” parameters
Simulated labour hire and fire rate, USA 1900-2000
0,45
Labour Hire Rate
0,4
Labour Fire Rate
rate (standardised labour units per year
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
8. Labour – validation by empirical fit
Simulated and empirical labour, USA 1900-2000
3,5
empirical
3 simulated
2,5
normalised labour (1900=1)
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
9. Capital accumulation feedback loop
<Gr oss
Output>
Capital
Inv e stme nt Depre ciation
Investment Inv e stme nt Depre ciation Depreciation
Fraction A Fraction Rate Rate A
Investment Depreciation
Fraction B Rate B
Structural Shift <Time> Structural Shift
Time A Time B
Parameters for USA 1900-2000
• Investment Fraction A=0.081 Investment Fraction B=0.074
• Depreciation Rate A=0.059 Depreciation Rate B=0.106
• Structural Shift Time A=1970 Structural Shift Time B=1930
10. Capital investment and depreciation
Simulated investment and depreciation, USA 1900-2000
1.8
investment
1.6
depreciation
1.4
normalised capital (1900=1)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
11. Capital – validation by empirical fit
Simulated and empirical capital, USA 1900-2000
14
empirical
12
simulated
normalised capital (1900=1)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
12. A commonly used reference mode
Energy Intensity of Capital, USA 1900-2000.
28
Start of the Great Depression b/k - total primary exergy supply
26 (energy carriers, metals,
minerals and phytomass exergy)
24
e/k - total fuel exergy supply
(energy carriers only)
22
20
index
18
16
14
12
10
End of World War II
8
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
13. The REXS alternative
Simulated and empirical primary exergy intensity of output,
USA 1900-2000
1.2
1
0.8
r/y (1900=1)
0.6
0.4
0.2 empirical
simulated
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
14. Primary exergy intensity (R/GDP) of
output decay feedback mechanism.
<Gr oss Primary Exe rgy
Output> Inte nsity of Output
Rate of Decay
Fractional
Primary Exe rgy Decay Rate
Demand
Parameters
Product R&D Substitution of
• Rate of Decay = Fractional Improvement Knowledge for Labour;
Decay Rate*Primary Exergy Capital; and Exergy
Process
Intensity of Output Improvement
Substitution of
• Fractional Decay Rate=0.012 Lower Limits to
Exergy for Labour
and Capital
Costs of
INCREASED REVENUES Production
Increased Demand for
To the right: Final Goods and Services
Processes aggregated in Economies of
Scale
Lower Prices of
Materials &
the REXS dynamics Energy
15. Technical efficiency feedback mechanism
and exergy services supply dynamics
Endogenised Creation
and Turnover of
Technology
CREATE
Maximum Feasible
-
(alpha*Primary Exergy
Technical Efficiency
Fractional
Create Rate Coal Technical Efficiency Production Growth Rate
Saturation Index
Coal
Coal Coal)*(1-(1/1+exp(beta*Technical
Efficiency Saturation Index
Coal-1)))
Create Rate
Coal
Technical
Efficiency Coal
DESTROY
+
delta+(Primary Exergy
Technical
Efficiency Growth
Fractional
Destroy Rate
Production Growth Rate
Rate Coal
Destroy Rate Coal Coal^gamma)*(1+Technical
Primary Exergy Efficiency Saturation Index
Production Growth
Rate Coal Coal^phi)
16. Technical efficiency – validation
0,18
0,16
0,14
technical efficiency, f
0,12
0,1
0,08
0,06
empirical (U/R)"
0,04
bilogistic model
0,02
0
25 695 1486 2660 4677 7113
cumulative primary exergy production (eJ)
Source Data: Ayres, Ayres and Warr, 2003
17. REXS economic output module
Exe rgy
Labour Capital
Serv ice s
Linex
parameter a ICT Fraction of
Gross Output
Capital
Linex
parameter b
ICT Capital
Growth Rate
Linex
Parameter c
Cumulativ e
Production
Monetary
Monetary
Output
18. Output – validation of full model
Simulated and empirical GDP, USA 1900-2000
25
simulated
empirical
20
normalised GDP (1900=1)
15
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
19. The full (simple) model
Capital
Investment- Total Capital non-ICT
Depreciation Accumulation CAPITAL
Rate
Output
Experience
+
ICT Capital ICT
Fraction CAPITAL
Labour Hire and
LABOUR GDP
Fire Rate
Primary Primary Exergy
Primary Exergy
Exergy Conversion
Intensity of GDP WORK
Production + Technical
Decline Rate
Experience Efficiency
20. REXS Projections of future output
Altering the future rates of the energy intensity
of output
The average decay rate of the exergy intensity of output
(R/GDP) for the period 1900-1998 is 1.2%
The simulations involved increasing or decreasing this
parameter from 1998 onwards, while keeping the values
of all other parameters fixed.
The following illustrations provide a summary of the
results. For further details concerning the REXS model
consult the REXS documentation.
21. The “dematerialising” dynamics
Declining resource
inte nsity of output
cumulative
output
experience
Continuing historical
Economic tre nds of te chnical
output e fficie ncy growth
cumulative exergy
pr oduction
experience
Use ful wor k
supply
22. Varying rates of dematerialisation
Primary Exergy Intensity of Output Decline Rate
The constant 0
rate of exergy historical trend
50% 75% 95% 100%
intensity
decline was -0.5
altered to vary
between –0.55
and –1.65 % (%) -1
p.a.
-1.5
-2
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Year
23. Effects on ‘efficiency’ improvements
The ‘business Technical Efficiency of Primary Exergy Conversion
0.4
as usual’ case: historical data
50% 75% 95% 100%
If technical
efficiency does 0.3
not increase in
pace with ‘de-
efficiency
materialisation’ 0.2
growth slows ?
0.1
0
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Year
24. Projected GDP (USA) 2000-2050
Gross Output
200
The sensitivity of historical data
50% 75% 95% 100%
future projections
of GDP were
150
assessed, the red
line indicates the
Index (1900=1)
‘business as usual’
for a fractional 100
decay rate of
energy intensity of
output –1.2 % per
annum and 50
technical efficiency
at 1% p.a.
0
1900 1938 1975 2013 2050
Year
25. The future for REXS
THE MEET-REXS ANALYTICAL COMPARATIVE FRAMEWORK ~ of Model Families and Model
Members represented by alternative framework structures.
POPULATION LABOUR W ELFARE INDICATORS &
Birth-death dynamics Supply function: Output, discounting, POLICY
& Mortality, Morbidity Participation level positive and negative Mass, Exergy, Work,
Migration Unemployment, externalilties Intensity Measures,
Per capita measures Skills supply, costs & benefits, Productivity/Efficiency
Social Characteristics Retirement age. time preferences Taxes-subsidies.
NATURAL RESOURCES CAPITAL ECONOMY IMPACTS
Renewable and non- Alternative definitions Neo-classical – Type I Land-uses
renewable, (knowledge capital) Common Property
Fuels, Metals, Non- Endogenous- Type II
Accumulation, Quantity & Resources,
Metals, Biomass Quality, Depreciation, Evolutionary- Type III Uncertainty
Limits to supplies Capacity Utilisation (and variants) Global Warming
ENERGY & MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY WASTES ECOSYSTEM
Quantity & Quality Exogenous-Endogenous Pollution & Emissions,, Global & regional
Sources and Uses Resource Saving Recycling, Regulatory biogeochemical cycles
Substitutions Emissions reducing Constraints assimilation, capacity
Possibilities Experience Dynamics Monitoring resilience, thresholds
Technology Interactions by Fuel, by Work feedbacks
Model Family (MF) and Model Members (MM) Scenario Controls
ALTERNATIVE STRUCTURES FIXED STRUCTURES