Video is THE dominating traffic source on mobile networks. Mobile operators need to address that through innovative new services. The talk proposes to move from a dumb packet delivery service to Content Logistics. It describes a new technical approach & business model to tackle that

1. Faster Networks
Faster to the Abyss?
From “packet delivery” to “content logistics”
Maximilian Ott
CTO, Incoming Media
max@incoming-media.com

2. Objective
• Carriers need to provide a different service
• From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics”
• Outline
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•
•
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Why nobody likes Carriers
The Standoff between Carrier & Service Providers
Incoming: Solving Mobile Video with Data Science
A Proposal for a new Carrier Service
2

3. Nobody likes Carriers
Voice
SMS
Not too long ago
they actually provided
a service customers
wanted
http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl
3

4. Nobody likes Carriers
Voice
SMS
YouTube
Facebook
Carrier
http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl
4

5. … Even the Financial Markets
5

6. … Even the Financial Markets
• Carriers look more & more like utilities
• Valuation (P/E Multiple) will drop accordingly
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7. Mexican Standoff
Service
Provider
Advertiser
Carrier
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8. But it is a Symbiotic Dependency
• Increased User Experience, increased Income
• Great User Experience requires great network
• Service Providers need to incentivize Carriers
to help maximizing User Engagement
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9. How to Share?
Service
Provider
???
Advertiser
Carrier
9

10. How to Share – Shapley Values?
• Model as a cooperative game which derives a
distribution among the players of the total
surplus generated by their coalition.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
• Ma, et al, Internet Economics: The use of Shapley value for ISP
settlement, CoNeXT ‘07
10

11. More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost
• What is the REAL cost of delivering a Movie?
• Infrastructure (CapEx) & Operation (OpEx)
• Dominated by Capex
• Capex driven by PEAK demand
• Leads to Congestion Pricing
• Cost varies greatly based on congestion –
Orders of Magnitude!
• Same for service providers (servers, connectivity)
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12. More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost
Real delivery cost of a Bit
can vary by
Orders of Magnitude!
12

13. Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys
Timeshifting
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14. Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys
Timeshifting
But Data Services cannot do that!
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15. What is the traffic mix?
Web
Voice
M2M
Live
Games
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16. Anything special about Video?
“Created”
Consumed
t
Hours – days - months
16

17. FedEx – Packet delivery?

18. FedEx – Logistics Company!

19. FedEx – Logistics Company!
The ideal place for
zero-latency delivery

20. Content Logistics
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21. Content Logistics – Control Peaks
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22. Lowering Cost by Increasing Traffic!
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23. Incoming Media
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24. The Phone IS part of the network!
•
•
•
•
•
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Lots of storage
Lots of processing
Big screen
Lots of sensors
ONE, very loyal user
The FIRST screen
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25. Incoming Media
•
•
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Smart on-device content pre-positioning
Create great mobile video experiences
Increase engagement and satisfaction
Save money doing this
25

26. Incoming’s Solution
• Pre-fetching content on the mobile utilizing
spare network capacity when available.
• Decision what and when to pre-fetch is based
on our ability to learn (and predict):
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user behavior
user’s social network behavior
mobile’s context and network environment
operator’s preferences
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27. Incoming’s Architecture
Analytics
System
Optimization
Backend
Policies
Mobile
Device
Content
Prediction
Engine
Recommendation
Feeds
Content
Providers
Application
Content
Requests
Performance
Feedback
CDN
Policy
CDN
Predictive
Download
Manager
Network Policy
(e.g. ANDSF)
Local
Cache
Device
Sensors
Network
Provider
27

28. Incoming TV App
• Proves value proposition
of Smart Caching to user
• Over 1.3M installs
• 80% cache-hit ratio
• Top 20% users watching
10 to 20+ mins per day
• Zero mobile data cost
• Instant start, zero stalling,
zero buffering, HD video
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29. What should Carriers do?
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30. Content Logistics Service
• New content-centric network API
• This is a bit different to CCN proposals
• Smart distributed storage
• This includes mobile device (terminals)
• Opportunistic pre-positioning of content
• Less-than-best-effort traffic class
• Only forward when there is nothing else to
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31. Content-centric network API
• Declaring of intent
• Probabilistic intent of future use
• Declaring meta-data
• Prediction algorithms rely on discovering
correlations
• Providing feedback
• What was the final utility of retrieved content
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32. Smart distributed storage
• Storage before bottleneck
• Using meta-data and past behavior to predict:
• what to store
• when to move between storage
• Building on IEEE 2200 (HQME)?
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33. New Traffic Class
• Less-than-best-effort traffic class
• Focus on keeping pipes full
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Using IP Header DiffServ Code Points (DSCP)?
Technology is there
May require new Traffic Management insights
Various large carriers are thinking about it
Interest in exploiting LTE Broadcast
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34. Conclusion
• Carriers need to provide a different service
• From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics”
• Video is THE dominating traffic source
• Need new technical approach & business
model to tackle it
• Move from ‘dumb pipes’ to ‘smart logistics’
34

35. Faster Networks
Faster to the Abyss?
From “packet delivery” to “content logistics”
Maximilian Ott
CTO, Incoming Media
max@incoming-media.com