Sweden adopted a unique approach to managing COVID-19, opting not to impose strict lockdowns on healthy individuals but instead isolating vulnerable populations while allowing businesses to remain open. The country predicted that COVID-19 would persist until a vaccine is developed, challenging widely held beliefs about the virus's seasonality and vaccine timelines. Sweden's strategy, aiming for herd immunity through exposure, resulted in a different economic impact and health outcomes compared to more restrictive measures seen elsewhere.

1. It has been widely publicized and critically
characterized as “The Sweden Experiment.”
From the beginning, Sweden took a different
approach to COVID-19.
It is summarized in this excerpt from a Nation-
al Review article, “Has Sweden Found The Right
Solution To The Coronavirus.”
* * *
“This is, in fact, the first time we have quaran-
tined healthy people rather than quarantining
the sick and vulnerable. As Fredrik Erixon, the
director of the European Centre for International
Political Economy in Brussels, wrote in The Spec-
tator (U.K.) last week: “The theory of lock-down,
after all, is pretty niche, deeply illiberal — and, until
now, untested. It’s not Sweden that’s conducting
a mass experiment. It’s everyone else.”
We’ve posed these simple questions to many
highly trained infectious-disease doctors, epide-
miologists, mathematical disease-modelers, and
other smart, educated professionals. It turns out
that, while you need proof beyond a reasonable
doubt to convict a person of theft and throw
them in jail, you don’t need any actual evidence
(much less proof) to put millions of people into
a highly invasive and burdensome lock-down
with no end in sight and nothing to prevent the
lock-down from being reimposed at the whim
of public-health officials. Is this rational?”
* * *
In the beginning we were told (by health ex-
perts and government officials on the nightly
news) that Coronavirus was seasonal like the flu,
would go away in the summer, and maybe come
back for a few months in the fall.
The best approach would be to shut down and
isolate for a few weeks, then get back to normal
and deal with Coronavirus IF it returned in the fall..
From the beginning, Sweden saw it differently.
Their epidemiologists predicted Coronavirus was
not seasonal, would be with us until we invented
a vaccine, and this would take years.
Sweden’s prediction about the vaccine was
correct. World and U.S. health experts now con-
firm that Coronavirus is not seasonal and will be
with us until we have a widely administered
vaccine (a massive undertaking).
We are now told that we should have a vac-
cine in 12-18 months, maybe sooner. Sweden
disagrees, saying it is unlikely a vaccine can
be produced and administered to a high per-
centage of any population in 12-18 months.
Sweden is probably right there too. The fol-
lowing excerpt from an article in National
Geographic is consistent with other informa-
tion on the subject, indicating that it is pol-
lyannaish for us to believe that a vaccine is
around the corner:
* * *
“The mumps vaccine—considered the fastest
ever approved—took four years to go from
collecting viral samples to licensing a drug in
1967. Clinical trials come with three phases,
and the first stages of the current COVID-19
trials aren’t due for completion until this fall,
spring 2021, or much later. And there are good
reasons to allow time for safety checks. Some
preliminary vaccines for the related coronavi-
rus SARS, for instance, actually enhanced the
disease in model experiments.
A year to 18 months would be absolutely un-
precedented,” says Peter Hotez, dean at Bay-
lor University’s National School of Tropical
Medicine.
One major hitch in developing a COVID-19
vaccine is that no medically proven predeces-
sor exists for any type of human coronavirus.
This despite the fact that the 2002 SARS and
2012 MERS outbreaks, both caused by viral
cousins of the new coronavirus, were warning
shots that claimed about 1,600 lives.”
* * *
From the beginning, Sweden decided that
Coronavirus would be with us for a very long
time, so it made no sense to accentuate the
negative effects of a viral outbreak with the
negative effects of an economic meltdown.
Sweden concluded that a more intelligent
approach would be to isolate the vulnerable,
devote government resources to quickly build
out a medical infrastructure to treat serious
cases… and let the rest of the population de-
velop herd immunity… essentially the same ef-
fect as a vaccine.
Based on what I’ve read, herd immunity oc-
curs when 60%-70% of a population has been
exposed to a virus and they self-develop the
antibody that repels it. This creates the same
result as a vaccine, only much, much faster.
As of May 7th, Sweden reported 24,623 cas-
es and 3040 deaths in a population that ex-
ceeds 10,000,000 people. A May 4th article
in the NY Times said Sweden estimates 25%
of its population has already developed herd
immunity to Coronavirus.
Based on graphs (below) at worldmeter.com,
Sweden’s Coronavirus infection and death rates
appear to have started trending down because
the population is developing herd immunity.
Sweden didn’t ignore Coronavirus. The
country took a less extreme approach, pro-
hibiting close public gatherings of 50 or
more and encouraging increased hand wash-
ing and social distancing. It also protected
and isolated the vulnerable, while quickly
building medical infrastructure (beds, venti-
lators, doctors) to treat serious cases.
But Sweden allowed businesses to remain
open, including bars and restaurants. While
its economy has been negatively affected by
the elimination of large events and a more
cautious populace, it hasn’t taken nearly as
bad a hit as the U.S., and it’s predicted to
rebound quickly.
Will Sweden’s Coronavirus death rate spike, then
recede, and then go away completely while they
live and work normally, developing herd immunity?
Will the U.S. infection and death rates spike when
we get back out? Logically, how can they not?
Never before have the healthy been isolated to
protect the vulnerable. The sick have been iso-
lated to keep from infecting the healthy and the
vulnerable have been encouraged, but not re-
quired, to isolate and protect themselves.
I am not saying Sweden is right.
But I am saying that America is conducting the
experiment, not Sweden.
To the 33 million unemployed and millions of
decimated business owners… I hope we’re right.
Greg@HaguePartners.com | 602.999.1000 | © Greg Hague, 2020. All rights Reserved.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
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Daily New Deaths in Sweden Daily New Cases in Sweden