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Growth in the US economy is expected to slow in Q2 2013 following strong growth in Q1. While consumption and government spending are expected to slow, capital expenditures, manufacturing growth, and trade are expected to continue driving growth. The pace of job creation may slow due to government spending cuts from sequestration. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative with no changes to asset purchase programs due to continued high unemployment and output gaps.
Option Implied Volatility for Small Cap StocksRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
1) The Indian stock markets rallied for four out of five trading sessions over the past week, gaining around 4% after disappointing budget news the previous week.
2) Positive domestic buying and global cues helped markets recover lost ground and reclaim psychological levels.
3) The coming week will see important Indian economic data releases like IIP and inflation numbers that will influence the RBI's upcoming policy decision.
The Indian stock markets had a strong recovery week, gaining over 4% after five weeks of losses. Domestic buying and positive global cues helped indices recoup losses. The Sensex gained 4.04% to close at 19,683 while the Nifty rose 3.95% to 5,946. Upcoming data on industrial production and inflation will influence the central bank's policy decision next week. The markets are expected to remain volatile with key resistance at 6,045-6,060 levels for the Nifty.
The document discusses labor market trends in Canada and British Columbia. It provides statistics on populations, unemployment rates, and employment numbers by industry. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 2001-2011, with some provinces faring better than others. British Columbia has a large services industry and many small businesses that employ most of the population. The document is a source of information for those in employment counseling.
- Global growth is expected to remain soft through the end of 2012 but stimulus measures could support a recovery in 2013. UK growth has been stagnant for the past two years due to domestic fiscal restraint and weakness in the Eurozone.
- Employment in the UK remains high given the weak economy, but composition of the workforce is changing with more part-time and self-employed workers. Inflation is falling which helps ease pressure on household incomes.
- Monetary policy accommodation by the Bank of England aims to offset continued fiscal tightening, though a fiscal policy change may be needed if growth falters again. Overall the recovery is expected to gain traction in the UK over the medium term.
Growth is expected to modestly accelerate in the US in Q3 2013 following sub-2% growth in the first half of the year. Key factors that will influence growth include the household deleveraging cycle, policy decisions around sequestration, manufacturing trends, expectations of Fed policy, and the impact of rising rates on housing. The unemployment rate is expected to continue moving toward 7% as job growth holds around 175,000 per month. The Fed will likely begin tapering asset purchases in September and maintain low rates until 2015.
An old-media kind of guy, I still keep file folders of stories, blog entries, clippings, messages and reports printed out and more or less sorted. Back in early 2009, I started a file labeled “Hysteria’’to hold the physical evidence of what I thought the most unusual and even outlandish claims being leveled against an asset class I have spent 33 years writing about —municipal bonds. - Joe Mysak, Bloomberg Brief Editor
Growth in the US economy is expected to slow in Q2 2013 following strong growth in Q1. While consumption and government spending are expected to slow, capital expenditures, manufacturing growth, and trade are expected to continue driving growth. The pace of job creation may slow due to government spending cuts from sequestration. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative with no changes to asset purchase programs due to continued high unemployment and output gaps.
Option Implied Volatility for Small Cap StocksRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
1) The Indian stock markets rallied for four out of five trading sessions over the past week, gaining around 4% after disappointing budget news the previous week.
2) Positive domestic buying and global cues helped markets recover lost ground and reclaim psychological levels.
3) The coming week will see important Indian economic data releases like IIP and inflation numbers that will influence the RBI's upcoming policy decision.
The Indian stock markets had a strong recovery week, gaining over 4% after five weeks of losses. Domestic buying and positive global cues helped indices recoup losses. The Sensex gained 4.04% to close at 19,683 while the Nifty rose 3.95% to 5,946. Upcoming data on industrial production and inflation will influence the central bank's policy decision next week. The markets are expected to remain volatile with key resistance at 6,045-6,060 levels for the Nifty.
The document discusses labor market trends in Canada and British Columbia. It provides statistics on populations, unemployment rates, and employment numbers by industry. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 2001-2011, with some provinces faring better than others. British Columbia has a large services industry and many small businesses that employ most of the population. The document is a source of information for those in employment counseling.
- Global growth is expected to remain soft through the end of 2012 but stimulus measures could support a recovery in 2013. UK growth has been stagnant for the past two years due to domestic fiscal restraint and weakness in the Eurozone.
- Employment in the UK remains high given the weak economy, but composition of the workforce is changing with more part-time and self-employed workers. Inflation is falling which helps ease pressure on household incomes.
- Monetary policy accommodation by the Bank of England aims to offset continued fiscal tightening, though a fiscal policy change may be needed if growth falters again. Overall the recovery is expected to gain traction in the UK over the medium term.
Growth is expected to modestly accelerate in the US in Q3 2013 following sub-2% growth in the first half of the year. Key factors that will influence growth include the household deleveraging cycle, policy decisions around sequestration, manufacturing trends, expectations of Fed policy, and the impact of rising rates on housing. The unemployment rate is expected to continue moving toward 7% as job growth holds around 175,000 per month. The Fed will likely begin tapering asset purchases in September and maintain low rates until 2015.
An old-media kind of guy, I still keep file folders of stories, blog entries, clippings, messages and reports printed out and more or less sorted. Back in early 2009, I started a file labeled “Hysteria’’to hold the physical evidence of what I thought the most unusual and even outlandish claims being leveled against an asset class I have spent 33 years writing about —municipal bonds. - Joe Mysak, Bloomberg Brief Editor
This document provides a summary of new restaurant openings and top restaurants from July 2014 to February 2015. It begins with the top 5 restaurants in London, New York, Hong Kong, and Paris from July 2014. It then discusses various new restaurants that have opened and provides recommendations for becoming a regular customer at certain restaurants to receive preferential treatment. The document also reviews Chef Bobby Flay's new restaurant Gato in New York and Heston Blumenthal's new airport cafe at Heathrow Terminal 2.
The document summarizes recommendations from a report by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) commission on reforms to U.S. bankruptcy law. The ABI commission studied issues that were not contemplated in the 1978 Bankruptcy Code and proposed several changes. These include: slightly slowing the increasing speed of bankruptcy sales, restricting the use of "milestones" that require a sale within 60 days; trimming back the protections of "safe harbors" for securities transactions; and giving more protections to unions and trademark license holders in business sales.
Welcome to the latest edition of Bloomberg Brief: Real Estate focused on the main trends in the residential and commercial markets. In this issue, former FDIC Chief William M. Isaac explains how the latest recovery differs from prior cycles and why the home price rebound has been muted. Fannie Mae’s Tom Seidenstein and Steve Deggendorf outline their expectations for credit standards in residential housing finance, and Bloomberg economist Josh Wright explains why MBS spreads won’t widen much as the Fed reins in purchases and housing agencies trim portfolios.
Then there are what Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, refers to as the “Boomerang Borrowers.” These former homeowners who lost houses through a foreclosure or short sale and want to return as owners are finding that credit is harder to get. This in turn could have an impact on demand for new and existing homes. As Meyer points out, nearly 17 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in 2006 fell into either foreclosure or short sale.
On the residential and commercial real estate finance side, the picture continues to improve. Financing costs for office and retail property borrowers have dropped thanks to lower AAA- and BBB-rated CMBS spreads. Some of the narrowing in CMBS spreads is tied to demand from investors looking for extra yield at a time when U.S. Treasury 10-year debt yields 2.36 percent and the 30-year yields just over 3 percent.
The yield hunt may also explain lower CMBS issuance. According to Jefferies’ Lisa Pendergast, a greater number of investors financed commercial property purchases and retained the loans on their own balance sheets rather than sold them. This forced participants to cut expectations for 2014 CMBS issuance. The appetite to put money to work in commercial real estate finance shows up in other ways, notably heightened use of interest-only and partial IO loans. Just over half of the mortgages resold into CMBS so far this year allowed borrowers to pay just interest, or had partial-IO characteristics.
To receive future Bloomberg Brief Real Estate Supplements please visit- http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/real-estate/
The article discusses the growing pains facing bitcoin as it transitions from a novelty to a mainstream currency and payment system. While startups are forming around uses like brokerages and bitcoin storage, consumers remain unconvinced of using bitcoin to buy goods and services. Regulators are also proving challenging, imposing new rules around capital gains taxes and how banks can handle bitcoins. The future of bitcoin is uncertain, as it works to match the rhetoric around its potential with real-world adoption, but some see opportunities in uses like international payments and micropayments in emerging markets.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Every organization needs to adapt to the ever-changing business environment. Sensing this need, we have come up with these content-ready change management PowerPoint presentation slides. These change management PPT templates will help you deal with any kind of an organizational change. Be it with people, goals or processes. The business solutions incorporated here will help you identify the organizational structure, create vision for change, implement strategies, identify resistance and risk, manage cost of change, get feedback and evaluation, and much more. With the help of various change management tools and techniques illustrated in this presentation design, you can achieve the desired business outcomes. This business transition PowerPoint design also covers certain related topics such as change model, transformation strategy, change readiness, change control, project management and business process. By implementing the change control methods mentioned in the presentation, you will be able to have a smooth transition in an organization. So, without waiting much, download our extensively researched change management framework presentation. With our Change Management Presentation slides, understand the need for change and plan to go through it without any hassles.
- US economic growth is expected to remain sub-trend at around 1.2-2.2% in Q3 2012 due to ongoing household deleveraging and fiscal drag. Unemployment is expected to remain elevated.
- Risks include a slowdown in the Eurozone and potential policy mistakes around fiscal tightening.
- Global manufacturing is slowing due to weak demand in Europe, the US, and a growth moderation in China.
Current Assessment PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
This aptly crafted editable PPT deck contains thirtynine slides. Our topic specific Current Assessment Power Point Presentation Slides presentation deck helps devise the topic with a clear approach. We offer a wide range of custom made slides with all sorts of relevant charts and graphs, overviews, topics subtopics templates, and analysis templates. Speculate, discuss, design or demonstrate all the underlying aspects with zero difficulty. This deck also consists creative and professional looking slides of all sorts to achieve the target of a presentation effectively. You can present it individually or as a team working in any company organization.
The document provides an economic update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It includes:
1) A summary of FOMC forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates for 2012-2014 which generally predict moderate economic growth and contained inflation.
2) Data and charts on components of the economy such as consumption, investment, manufacturing, and lending which show recent trends and fluctuations.
3) The Philadelphia Fed's current and leading economic activity indexes for April 2012 which indicate differing growth predictions across regions in the next 6 months.
The document provides Embraer's 2013 outlook and perspectives. It summarizes 2012 delivery and backlog numbers. For 2013, Embraer expects net revenues between $5.9-6.4 billion and EBIT between $530-610 million. It expects modest global economic growth and continued airline industry profitability. Embraer will focus on developing new E-Jets and executive jet models while expanding its defense business. Investments in research, development and capital expenditures are budgeted at $580 million total for 2013.
The document proposes bringing the asset management industry to Denver by leveraging the region's existing financial services sector, educated workforce, and physical and intellectual capital. It notes that the Rocky Mountain region has a large financial sector concentrated in areas like banking, insurance, and real estate. The region also has a highly educated population and lower costs of living compared to other major cities, offering advantages to grow the asset management industry by providing investment jobs, increasing wealth, and creating spin-off support jobs. The asset management industry manages money for clients across many global market segments and investment vehicle types.
Granite Company Overview 2013 | Nationwide Voice and Data for BusinessesShane Hoff
Granite is one of the premier telecommunications solutions providers for businesses across the United States and Canada, servicing more than 70 Fortune 100 companies. Granite offers dial-tone, infrastructure solutions, advanced data services, broadband, and security services to our customers at significant savings. Some of the key benefits of Granite’s solutions include: Consolidated billing and support, Nationwide coverage in the US and Canada, Optimized for multi-location companies
The document summarizes key findings from an economic outlook report on the franchise business sector in the US. It projects that in 2011, the number of franchise jobs will increase by 2.5% to add 194,000 new jobs. The number of franchise establishments is projected to grow 2.5% to add 19,079 new locations. Economic output from franchise businesses is forecasted to increase 4.7% to $739.9 billion. Most franchise business lines are expected to see gains in jobs, establishments and output, with automotive, commercial services and retail seeing among the strongest growth.
SurePayroll June 2014 Small Business ScorecardSurePayroll
The SurePayroll Scorecard provides monthly data on hiring and paycheck trends among small businesses since 2004. It draws from payroll data of over 1,000 small businesses with 1-10 employees nationwide. The June 2014 report found that nationwide hiring was down 0.6% month-over-month but flat year-over-year, while pay per check was down 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Optimism among small business owners for the second half of 2014 was up from the first half.
The ISG Outsourcing Index (formerly the TPI Index) provides a quarterly review of the latest sourcing industry data and trends for clients, service providers, analysts and the media. For more than a decade, it has been the authoritative source for marketplace intelligence related to outsourcing transaction structures and terms, industry adoption, geographic prevalence and service provider performance.
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milangdonnini
The document introduces the Brazilian ICT market and potential synergies with Italian companies. It notes that Brazil's GDP grew nearly 5% in 2004 and inflation/unemployment are low. ICT investments in Brazil are forecast to grow 9% annually through 2008. Major global ICT companies have a presence in Brazil and some Italian firms operate there as well. The Brazilian financial system is efficient and reliable, with large international banks participating, while ICT solutions have been exported throughout South America and to the US. The market is fragmented with many small companies, though banking suppliers tend to be larger with over 15 years of experience. Brazil is considered a top offshore location due to its services rates, which are up to 60% lower than in
The document summarizes economic trends in Atlanta and nationally. It finds that while recovery from the recession continues, with GDP and employment increasing, progress has been slow. Job growth has primarily occurred in lower-wage sectors, holding down wage growth. Unemployment rates remain higher for minorities and less educated groups. However, leading indicators like increasing job postings in high-tech fields, rising patent activity, and forecasts predict potential growth in higher-wage sectors going forward.
This document provides a summary of new restaurant openings and top restaurants from July 2014 to February 2015. It begins with the top 5 restaurants in London, New York, Hong Kong, and Paris from July 2014. It then discusses various new restaurants that have opened and provides recommendations for becoming a regular customer at certain restaurants to receive preferential treatment. The document also reviews Chef Bobby Flay's new restaurant Gato in New York and Heston Blumenthal's new airport cafe at Heathrow Terminal 2.
The document summarizes recommendations from a report by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) commission on reforms to U.S. bankruptcy law. The ABI commission studied issues that were not contemplated in the 1978 Bankruptcy Code and proposed several changes. These include: slightly slowing the increasing speed of bankruptcy sales, restricting the use of "milestones" that require a sale within 60 days; trimming back the protections of "safe harbors" for securities transactions; and giving more protections to unions and trademark license holders in business sales.
Welcome to the latest edition of Bloomberg Brief: Real Estate focused on the main trends in the residential and commercial markets. In this issue, former FDIC Chief William M. Isaac explains how the latest recovery differs from prior cycles and why the home price rebound has been muted. Fannie Mae’s Tom Seidenstein and Steve Deggendorf outline their expectations for credit standards in residential housing finance, and Bloomberg economist Josh Wright explains why MBS spreads won’t widen much as the Fed reins in purchases and housing agencies trim portfolios.
Then there are what Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, refers to as the “Boomerang Borrowers.” These former homeowners who lost houses through a foreclosure or short sale and want to return as owners are finding that credit is harder to get. This in turn could have an impact on demand for new and existing homes. As Meyer points out, nearly 17 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in 2006 fell into either foreclosure or short sale.
On the residential and commercial real estate finance side, the picture continues to improve. Financing costs for office and retail property borrowers have dropped thanks to lower AAA- and BBB-rated CMBS spreads. Some of the narrowing in CMBS spreads is tied to demand from investors looking for extra yield at a time when U.S. Treasury 10-year debt yields 2.36 percent and the 30-year yields just over 3 percent.
The yield hunt may also explain lower CMBS issuance. According to Jefferies’ Lisa Pendergast, a greater number of investors financed commercial property purchases and retained the loans on their own balance sheets rather than sold them. This forced participants to cut expectations for 2014 CMBS issuance. The appetite to put money to work in commercial real estate finance shows up in other ways, notably heightened use of interest-only and partial IO loans. Just over half of the mortgages resold into CMBS so far this year allowed borrowers to pay just interest, or had partial-IO characteristics.
To receive future Bloomberg Brief Real Estate Supplements please visit- http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/real-estate/
The article discusses the growing pains facing bitcoin as it transitions from a novelty to a mainstream currency and payment system. While startups are forming around uses like brokerages and bitcoin storage, consumers remain unconvinced of using bitcoin to buy goods and services. Regulators are also proving challenging, imposing new rules around capital gains taxes and how banks can handle bitcoins. The future of bitcoin is uncertain, as it works to match the rhetoric around its potential with real-world adoption, but some see opportunities in uses like international payments and micropayments in emerging markets.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Every organization needs to adapt to the ever-changing business environment. Sensing this need, we have come up with these content-ready change management PowerPoint presentation slides. These change management PPT templates will help you deal with any kind of an organizational change. Be it with people, goals or processes. The business solutions incorporated here will help you identify the organizational structure, create vision for change, implement strategies, identify resistance and risk, manage cost of change, get feedback and evaluation, and much more. With the help of various change management tools and techniques illustrated in this presentation design, you can achieve the desired business outcomes. This business transition PowerPoint design also covers certain related topics such as change model, transformation strategy, change readiness, change control, project management and business process. By implementing the change control methods mentioned in the presentation, you will be able to have a smooth transition in an organization. So, without waiting much, download our extensively researched change management framework presentation. With our Change Management Presentation slides, understand the need for change and plan to go through it without any hassles.
- US economic growth is expected to remain sub-trend at around 1.2-2.2% in Q3 2012 due to ongoing household deleveraging and fiscal drag. Unemployment is expected to remain elevated.
- Risks include a slowdown in the Eurozone and potential policy mistakes around fiscal tightening.
- Global manufacturing is slowing due to weak demand in Europe, the US, and a growth moderation in China.
Current Assessment PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
This aptly crafted editable PPT deck contains thirtynine slides. Our topic specific Current Assessment Power Point Presentation Slides presentation deck helps devise the topic with a clear approach. We offer a wide range of custom made slides with all sorts of relevant charts and graphs, overviews, topics subtopics templates, and analysis templates. Speculate, discuss, design or demonstrate all the underlying aspects with zero difficulty. This deck also consists creative and professional looking slides of all sorts to achieve the target of a presentation effectively. You can present it individually or as a team working in any company organization.
The document provides an economic update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It includes:
1) A summary of FOMC forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates for 2012-2014 which generally predict moderate economic growth and contained inflation.
2) Data and charts on components of the economy such as consumption, investment, manufacturing, and lending which show recent trends and fluctuations.
3) The Philadelphia Fed's current and leading economic activity indexes for April 2012 which indicate differing growth predictions across regions in the next 6 months.
The document provides Embraer's 2013 outlook and perspectives. It summarizes 2012 delivery and backlog numbers. For 2013, Embraer expects net revenues between $5.9-6.4 billion and EBIT between $530-610 million. It expects modest global economic growth and continued airline industry profitability. Embraer will focus on developing new E-Jets and executive jet models while expanding its defense business. Investments in research, development and capital expenditures are budgeted at $580 million total for 2013.
The document proposes bringing the asset management industry to Denver by leveraging the region's existing financial services sector, educated workforce, and physical and intellectual capital. It notes that the Rocky Mountain region has a large financial sector concentrated in areas like banking, insurance, and real estate. The region also has a highly educated population and lower costs of living compared to other major cities, offering advantages to grow the asset management industry by providing investment jobs, increasing wealth, and creating spin-off support jobs. The asset management industry manages money for clients across many global market segments and investment vehicle types.
Granite Company Overview 2013 | Nationwide Voice and Data for BusinessesShane Hoff
Granite is one of the premier telecommunications solutions providers for businesses across the United States and Canada, servicing more than 70 Fortune 100 companies. Granite offers dial-tone, infrastructure solutions, advanced data services, broadband, and security services to our customers at significant savings. Some of the key benefits of Granite’s solutions include: Consolidated billing and support, Nationwide coverage in the US and Canada, Optimized for multi-location companies
The document summarizes key findings from an economic outlook report on the franchise business sector in the US. It projects that in 2011, the number of franchise jobs will increase by 2.5% to add 194,000 new jobs. The number of franchise establishments is projected to grow 2.5% to add 19,079 new locations. Economic output from franchise businesses is forecasted to increase 4.7% to $739.9 billion. Most franchise business lines are expected to see gains in jobs, establishments and output, with automotive, commercial services and retail seeing among the strongest growth.
SurePayroll June 2014 Small Business ScorecardSurePayroll
The SurePayroll Scorecard provides monthly data on hiring and paycheck trends among small businesses since 2004. It draws from payroll data of over 1,000 small businesses with 1-10 employees nationwide. The June 2014 report found that nationwide hiring was down 0.6% month-over-month but flat year-over-year, while pay per check was down 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Optimism among small business owners for the second half of 2014 was up from the first half.
The ISG Outsourcing Index (formerly the TPI Index) provides a quarterly review of the latest sourcing industry data and trends for clients, service providers, analysts and the media. For more than a decade, it has been the authoritative source for marketplace intelligence related to outsourcing transaction structures and terms, industry adoption, geographic prevalence and service provider performance.
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milangdonnini
The document introduces the Brazilian ICT market and potential synergies with Italian companies. It notes that Brazil's GDP grew nearly 5% in 2004 and inflation/unemployment are low. ICT investments in Brazil are forecast to grow 9% annually through 2008. Major global ICT companies have a presence in Brazil and some Italian firms operate there as well. The Brazilian financial system is efficient and reliable, with large international banks participating, while ICT solutions have been exported throughout South America and to the US. The market is fragmented with many small companies, though banking suppliers tend to be larger with over 15 years of experience. Brazil is considered a top offshore location due to its services rates, which are up to 60% lower than in
The document summarizes economic trends in Atlanta and nationally. It finds that while recovery from the recession continues, with GDP and employment increasing, progress has been slow. Job growth has primarily occurred in lower-wage sectors, holding down wage growth. Unemployment rates remain higher for minorities and less educated groups. However, leading indicators like increasing job postings in high-tech fields, rising patent activity, and forecasts predict potential growth in higher-wage sectors going forward.
Step 1 - RatiosSTEP 1 Print out this tabs 2 pages & make notes .docxdessiechisomjj4
The document provides instructions for analyzing a company's financial ratios and performance metrics. It includes 3 steps: 1) explanations of common ratios used to measure investment and asset utilization, profitability, etc. 2) a template to input financial data for income statements, balance sheets, and other metrics. 3) An analysis review section to calculate ratios and note trends over multiple years. The overall purpose is to evaluate a company's financial health and performance using key ratios derived from its financial statements.
The document provides an overview of Sallie Mae's business fundamentals and financial outlook. It discusses that Sallie Mae has:
1) Strong fundamentals in student lending, competitive scale, and assured FFELP profits through 2010.
2) Adequate liquidity to meet debt obligations and unlimited funding for new FFELP loans through 2009/2010.
3) Expanding deposit funding and $20 billion in expected FFELP originations for 2008/2009.
4) Private loan originations increased despite economic challenges, with improving credit quality in recent vintages.
Tricumen / Capital Markets Profit drivers Nov-13Tricumen Ltd
Revenue generation has a greater impact on long-term profitability and share prices than cost cutting alone. While cost cutting can provide short-term gains, investment banks should focus on innovating to create new business lines and revenue sources. An analysis of 12 banks found a strong correlation between operating revenue and pre-tax profit margins but a weak correlation with operating expenses. Revenue generation is thus a better determinant of valuation metrics like price-to-earnings and price-to-book value ratios.
The document discusses the 2008 results and 2009 plan for an institutional business. Some key points include:
- Excellent top-line growth and solid core earnings were achieved in 2008.
- Premiums, fees and other revenues are projected to increase from $16.5-$16.7 billion in 2008 to $17.3-$17.7 billion in 2009. However, operating earnings are expected to decline slightly to $1.6-$1.66 billion due to lower investment income and expense management.
- The business will focus on maintaining fundamentals, investing in growth opportunities, aggressively managing expenses, and communicating their value proposition in 2009.
This document analyzes working capital management (WCM) ratios for several pharmaceutical companies in Bangladesh, including Square Pharmaceuticals and GlaxoSmithKline. It calculates key WCM metrics like inventory turnover, receivables period, payables period, and cash conversion cycle for each company individually and compares them to industry averages. Graphs are presented to show how the individual companies compare to overall industry trends. The analysis provides insights into how efficiently different companies are managing their working capital.
London Dine & Wine- A Bloomberg Brief Special Supplement Bloomberg Briefs
Discover the capital's secrets in Bloomberg Brief's special supplement London Dine & Wine. Inside you will find London's 10 most important restaurants for visitors, sommelier tips for picking a good wine, and much more.
To learn more about the Bloomberg Brief Newsletters and Supplements please visit:
http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/
- Detroit won a commitment from Barclays for $275 million in financing to fund its exit from bankruptcy, if a judge approves its debt-cutting plans.
- The money from Barclays would pay off previous borrowing, creditors, and help revitalize the city.
- Detroit filed for bankruptcy unable to provide services and meet financial obligations due to decades of economic and population decline. It has since cut deals to reduce its $18 billion in liabilities.
This special supplement includes insight from leading economists and market observers about the future of home sales, what higher rates mean for affordability and what regulatory changes at the U.S. housing agencies will do to long-term fixed rate mortgages. Inside you will also find unique data on commercial mortgage issuance, CMBS loan leverage, mortgage delinquencies and commercial property cap rates, as well as insight into real estate development in Manhattan.
Reporting requirements for over-the-counter derivatives trades go into effect on Feb. 12 under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation. As companies prepare, they also look ahead to mandatory clearing and the reporting of valuation and collateral, which are set to begin in the third quarter.
The European Union's new derivatives reporting rules under EMIR go into effect on February 12, 2014. These rules require firms to report over-the-counter derivatives transactions to trade repositories. While preparations are underway, some businesses warn they may not have all systems in place by the deadline. The rules bring more regulation to the $693 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market and aim to increase transparency after the 2008 financial crisis.
Bloomberg Brief - Mergers Year End Supplement 2013Bloomberg Briefs
The document provides an overview and analysis of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2013. Some key points:
- Total global M&A deal value was up only slightly in 2013 compared to 2012, with a single mega-deal between Verizon and Vodafone accounting for over 5% of the total value.
- The energy sector accounted for a smaller portion of deals compared to recent years, while communications deals made up a larger share, driven by telecom mergers.
- North America remained the dominant region for deals, accounting for over 40% of global activity. However, some of the largest deals involved European companies.
- Private equity firms were involved in two of
Please find attached our complimentary copy of our Oil Buyer's Guide 2013 Review. This is just a sample of incredible content our subscribers receive each day. Visit bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our complimentary year end review from Bloomberg Brief Private Equity. This is just a sample of the incredible data available to our subscribers. Visit Bloombergbriefs.com for more information.
Please find attached our annual review with our compliments. This is a sample of the high quality content our subscribers receive each week. Take your free trial at bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief produces high quality financial newsletters. Attached is our year end / outlook for Economics with our compliments. Our newsletters are subscription only but you can take a trial via our website bloombergbriefs.com
Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
Private equity firms are targeting the $3.6 trillion 401(k) market as a new source of growth amid lackluster fundraising. Firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Carlyle are developing products tailored for individual investors with lower minimums in an effort to gain access to retirement plans. However, adding alternative investments like private equity to 401(k)s faces challenges around fees, liquidity, and fiduciary responsibility for employers.
This document summarizes a report on currency valuations according to different metrics. It provides currency exchange rates and estimates of under or overvaluation based on purchasing power parity calculations, a 10-year moving average, and other models. The British pound and Asian currencies like the Singapore dollar appear most undervalued according to these analyses, while the Japanese yen seems overvalued versus other Asian currencies still. The document advocates focusing valuation discussions on exchange rate fundamentals and accumulation of foreign reserves rather than competitive devaluations.
2013 US Economic Outlook - Published by Bloomberg Brief EconomicsBloomberg Briefs
This exclusive presentation is a sample of the unique content published by Bloomberg's award winning Economics newsletter. For more information or to take a free trial please visit bloombergbriefs.com
*2012 Fundraising overview
*2013 Funds expected and LP commitment plans
*Buyout and venture deal-making review
*Exits: a round-up of trade sales, secondary buyouts and IPOs
*Views from the industry
The document provides a summary of major risk-related events that occurred throughout 2012, including increases and decreases in corporate hedging positions across different industries and asset classes in response to market volatility. It also lists the top risk events by month that impacted markets and reviews portfolio performance based on factors like industry, region, and investment style. The outlook for risk in 2013 from corporate executives is also examined.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataChampak Jhagmag
In this presentation, we will explore the rise of generative AI in finance and its potential to reshape the industry. We will discuss how generative AI can be used to develop new products, combat fraud, and revolutionize risk management. Finally, we will address some of the ethical considerations and challenges associated with this powerful technology.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
2. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Executive Summary
Politics and Policy To Be Major Determinants of Growth
• Fiscal drag to be a major theme in 2013.
- Automatic sequestration could increase fiscal drag.
• Fed policy designed to address economy caught in liquidity trap.
- Fed will continue to purchase assets throughout 2013.
• Chances for major tax and fiscal reform are probably remote.
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3. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Executive Summary
Another Year of 2 Percent Growth Likely
• Job growth around 150,000 per month with a modest decline in the
unemployment rate by end of year.
• Growth drivers: energy, housing , manufacturing and improving financial conditions.
Risks to the outlook
• External Sector: Euro zone and Middle East tensions.
• Domestic fiscal policy disputes.
• Financial regulation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 3 <<<<
4. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Jobs and Growth
400 5
200
3
Quarterly Average (Percentage)
Quarterly Average (Thousands)
0
1
-200
-1
-400
-3
-600
-5
-800
Real GDP Y/Y (RHS) Total Change in Employment (LHS)
-1000 -7
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
R2=.77
Source: Bloomberg
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5. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Executive Summary
US Economy: Liquidity Trap Prevails
• Slow growth and elevated unemployment continue.
• Investors have not priced in fiscal drag on growth in first half of 2013.
• 10-year rate likely hit high for until second half of year.
• Dollar weakness to persist against trade weighted basket of currencies.
• Policy debate around debt ceiling and sequestration to economy remains the primary
risk to the economic outlook.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 5 <<<<
6. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Mind The Gap
US Retains Substantial Output Gap
15
Real GDP Real Potential Output
14
13
Trillions (2005 Chained $)
12
11
10
9
8
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg
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7. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Labor Market Slack Persists
58 11
Employment to Population Ratio (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS, Inverted)
10
59
9
60
8
61
Percent
Percent
7
62
6
63
5
64
4
65 3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg USERTOT , USURTOT INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 7 <<<<
8. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Real Consumption on Lower Trend
11000
10500
Real PCE Trend Prior to Recession
Billions (Chained 2005 $)
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg US.HHSPNR BEA INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 8 <<<<
9. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Cyclical Growth Outlook
Core Scenario: Below Trend (2.5 percent) Growth
• Liquidity Trap Defines Business Cycle.
• Liquidity injections into banking system have failed to stimulate growth and
employment back to trend.
• Monetary policy targeting liquidity trap.
• Policy gridlock offers no fiscal relief.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 9 <<<<
10. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Cyclical Growth Outlook
Structural adjustment to growth model and labor market continues.
• Moving away from overconsumption based on easy credit.
• Growth: 2.2 percent cyclical growth average.
• Consumption: 1.5 percent cyclical growth average.
• Diversification of growth drivers.
• Elevated unemployment likely to persist.
• Public and private deleveraging continues.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 10 <<<<
11. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Cyclical Growth Outlook
Alternative Scenario: Cyclical Outperformance
• Long term tax and fiscal reform.
• Sustainable increase in corporate and consumer confidence.
• Domestic corporations deploy.
• Growth and hiring move back toward long term trends.
• Rising rates and inflation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 11 <<<<
12. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Bloomberg Consensus: Survey of Forecasters
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
Real GDP 1.40% 1.60% 2.10% 2.50% 2.80%
CPI 2.0% 1.70% 2.0% 1.90% 2.10%
Core PCE 1.70% 1.60% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%
Unemployment 7.83% 7.80% 7.80% 7.70% 7.50%
Central Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
2-Year Rate 0.25% 0.26% 0.29% 0.34% 0.41%
10-Year Rate 1.76% 1.76% 1.86% 1.99% 2.14%
EUR/USD $1.32 $1.29 $1.28 $1.27 $1.27
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13. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Slow Growth Likely to Define 2013
65.0 6.0
5.0
60.0 4.0
3.0
GDP Y/Y Percentage Change
Index (Quarterly Average)
55.0 2.0
1.0
50.0 0.0
-1.0
45.0 -2.0
-3.0
40.0 -4.0
ISM Manufacturing Survey (LHS)
Weighted ISM Manufacturing & Non-Man (LHS) -5.0
GDP Y/Y (RHS)
35.0 -6.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg NAPMPMI, GDP CYOY INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 13 <<<<
14. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Low Wage Bias in Hiring
150
125
100
75
Thousands
50
25
0
-25
Leisure and Hospitality Health Care and Social Assistance Temp Retail Trade
-50
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg USRTTOT, USESTEMP, USEETOTS, USEHTOTS INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 14 <<<<
15. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Real Consumption and Consumer Confidence
120 8
110
6
Year Over Year Percentage Change
100
4
90
Index
2
80
0
70
-2
60
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Real Personal Consumption
50 -4
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
PCE CHY%, CONSSENT INDEX<GO>
Source: Bloomberg
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16. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Central Bank Policy Outlook and Overview
Fed will likely remain on hold throughout 2013
• Forward guidance to remain unchanged.
• Asset purchase to remain in place, then slow in 2014.
.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 16 <<<<
17. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Central Bank Policy Outlook and Overview
• Aggressive action to unclog monetary transmission mechanism to remain in place
through 2013.
• Balance sheet likely to expand to $4 trillion by end of 2013.
• If policy does not gain traction, Fed will begin to create conditions for targeting of
nominal GDP.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 17 <<<<
18. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Central Bank Policy Outlook and Overview
Five C’s of U.S. Monetary Policy
• Communications
• Commitment
• Conditionality
• Composition
• Credibility
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 18 <<<<
19. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
The Long Road Ahead
Slow Grind Back To Full Employment
Scenario 1: Structural Break Scenario 2: Cyclical Recovery
7% NAIRU 7% NAIRU 5.5% NAIRU 5.5% NAIRU
Monthly Job Gains 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.50% 63.50% 63.50% 63.50%
Average Annual Population Growth 0.92% 0.50% 0.92% 0.50%
Years to Full Employment 3 Years 1.5 Years 7 Years 4 Years
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21. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound
Taylor Rule & Evans Rule Estimates of the Fed Funds Rates
8
6
Taylor Rule Estinates
Fed Funds Rate
4
2
Percentage
0
Evans Rule
-2 Estimates
-4
-6
-8
-10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg USFEDL01, PCE CYOY, USURTOT INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 21 <<<<
22. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Rate Outlook
U.S. 10-Year likely posted highs for first half of 2013
• Forward looking rates indicated Fed policy to continue to suppress curve.
• Slower spending, followed by slow growth and modest deceleration in hiring mid year.
• Expect move back toward 1.50 on 10-year due to weak January data.
• Long term rates should trade in range between 1.50 and 2 percent.
• Risks to the outlook:
- Acceleration in demand from external sector bolsters growth prospects.
- Gains in labor market and housing offset fiscal drag.
- Premature exit by Fed from asset purchase program.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 22 <<<<
23. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Image page
U.S. Rates Overview
Bloomberg consensus forecast indicates higher 10- and 30-year rates.
Fed Asset Purchases Likely to continue near $85 billion per month.
Current Rates:
• 2-Year: .41 percent
• 10-year: 2.14 percent
• 30-year: 3.26 percent
Fourth Quarter Consensus Survey Rate Forecast:
• 2-Year: .26 percent
• 10-year: 1.90 percent
• 30-year: 3.10 percent
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 23 <<<<
24. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Projected Path of Long- and Short-Term Rates
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
Percent
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
US 10-Year (LHS) 3-Month, 2-Year Forward (RHS)
0.00
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg
USGG10YR INDEX, G0025 2Y3M BLC2CURNCY<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 24 <<<<
25. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
FX Overview
Dollar appreciation versus euro- and-trade weighted basket of currencies eases:
• Global central bank policy will drive foreign exchange valuations.
• Competitive quantitative easing manage currency competition among highly indebted
industrialized states.
• USD depreciation against a broader trade weighted based of currencies.
• Winners
- AUD
- CAD
- BRL
- MXN
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 25 <<<<
26. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Dollar Depreciation Likely to Continue
115
QE 1 Begins QE 2 QE 3
110
105
Index
100
95
Real Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index
90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg USTWBROA INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 26 <<<<
27. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Image page
U.S. Manufacturing Outlook
Manufacturing growth stabilizes
• Rise in capital expenditures following resolution of
- Automatic sequestration.
- Debt ceiling.
- Auto production leads modest growth in manufacturing.
o Rebuilding of auto stock following Hurricane Sandy.
o 250,000 autos destroyed by storm.
External Demand Rebounds
• Modest support for U.S. growth picture.
• European recession.
• China bounce in second half of 2013.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 27 <<<<
28. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Industrial Production and Growth
6.0 10.0
5.0
Y/Y Percentage Change (Quarterly Average)
4.0
5.0
3.0
Y/Y Percentage Change
2.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
-5.0
-1.0
-2.0
-10.0
-3.0
-4.0
GDP CYOY (LHS) Industrial Production (RHS)
-5.0 -15.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg
IP YOY, GDP CYOY INDEX<GO> R2=.76
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 28 <<<<
29. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Excluding Europe Global Manufacturing Rebounds
65 60%
60
40%
Y/Y Percentage Change (Index)
55
20%
50
Index
0%
45
-20%
40
-40%
35
MSCI World Index (RHS) US ISM (LHS) China PMI (LHS)
Euro Zone PMI (LHS) JP Morgan Global PMI (LHS)
30 -60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 29 <<<<
30. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Financial Conditions Overview
• Global central banks asset purchase supportive of financial conditions.
• Improved financial conditions supportive of U.S. and global growth.
• Credit creation continues to improve.
• This has not resulted in an increase in monetary velocity.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 30 <<<<
31. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Indices
2
1
0
-1
Index(Z-Score)
-2
-3
-4
-5
US Financial Conditions Index
EU Financial Conditions Index
-6
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg BFCIUS, BFCIEU INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 31 <<<<
32. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Credit Markets Healing
Private Credit Creation & Nominal Growth
20%
Nominal GDP
Total Credit Creation Private Financial Instiutions
15%
Year Over Year Percentage Change
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Adjusted R2=.64
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 32 <<<<
33. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Credit Markets Healing, Not Translating to Rising Velocity
2.2
M2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Source: Bloomberg VELOM2 INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 33 <<<<
34. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Housing Outlook and Overview
Modest cyclical recovery
• Recovery in starts driven by demand for multifamily dwellings.
• Prices stabilization.
• Some metro-areas experiencing price appreciation.
Overall housing recovery still years away
• Mortgages underwater still a concern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 34 <<<<
35. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Housing Starts Stabilize
2 90
1.8 80
1.6
70
1.4
Millions (Annualized Pace)
60
1.2
50
Index
1
40
0.8
30
0.6
20
0.4
0.2 10
Single Family Starts National Association of Homebuilders Index
0 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg USHBMIDX, NHSPS1 INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 35 <<<<
36. U.S. 2013 Economic Overview and Outlook Email jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net or call 212-617-7664
Negative and Near Negative Equity Still A Policy Challenge
First Mortgages: Negative and Near Negative Equity
29
28
27
26
25 Near Negative Equity,
Percent
4.7
24
23
22
21 Negative Equity, 22.3
20
Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12
Source: Bloomberg NESHNATI, NNSHNATI INDEX<GO>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SUBSCRIBE @BRIEF<GO> | 36 <<<<
37. Bloomberg
Joseph Brusuelas,
Senior Economist
Bloomberg, LP
jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net
Joseph Brusuelas is an economist who writes for the Bloomberg Economic Brief. The observations he makes
are his own. Bloomberg is a leading source of data, news, and analytics for financial and legal professionals,
corporations, media organizations and private individuals around the globe. The BLOOMBERG
PROFESSIONAL® service and Bloomberg’s media services provide real-time and historical pricing, indicative
data, reporting, research, estimates, analytics, portfolio management tools, electronic trading and order
management systems, multimedia events and electronic communications to Bloomberg clients in more
than 150 countries, 24 hours a day.
bloomberg.com
Frankfurt London San Francisco Singapore Tokyo
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