This Slidesharepresents the results of the principal 2014-based local authority population projections for Wales. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels or distribution; they indicate what is expected to happen if these trends continue.

1. Local Authority Population Projections
for Wales (2014-based):
Principal projection
Key points

2. What are Population Projections?
• Provide an estimate of the size of the future population,
not forecasts.
• Calculated based on assumptions about:
- Births,
- Deaths,
- Migration.
• Assumptions generally based on recent trends.

3. Why are there different variations of
Population Projections?
• Assumptions which Population Projections are based on
could change in the future.
• To show uncertainty of future changes variations are
produced on alternative assumptions.
• Variants do not signify upper or lower bounds, but what
population could look like if assumptions changed
• This slideshow presents Key results of the Main
Population Projections i.e. if recent trends continue.

4. Populations projected to increase or
decrease steadily between 2014 and 2039
Gwynedd, Wrexham, Ceredigion, Swansea,
Bridgend, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Newport
Isle of Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent, Powys
Up
Of those showing a steady projected population
increase, Cardiff is by far the largest (25.5%)
Down
Cardiff
*A full list of authorities can be found on the following slide

5. Of the remaining authorities:
Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire,
Carmarthenshire, Neath Port
Talbot, Vale of Glamorgan,
Caerphilly and Monmouthshire
Pembrokeshire, Torfaen and
Merthyr Tydfil
Population by local authority
in 2014 & projected
population in 2039
Up by
2039
Down
by 2039

6. Percentage change in population from
2014 (to 2039)
Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot
Gwynedd Bridgend
Conwy Vale of Glamorgan
Denbighshire Cardiff
Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf
Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil
Powys Caerphilly
Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent
Pembrokeshire Torfaen
Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire
Swansea Newport
Spark lines show percentage
change from 2014 over
projection period.
The scale is the same on
each chart with the black
line being no change.
E.g. whilst Vale of
Glamorgan will see little
change in its projected
population between 2014
and 2039, Cardiff is
projected to have a steady
increase.

7. What can population projections be used for?
• Planning services at national and local level,
• Preparation of Local Development Plans;
• Local Government Finance revenue settlement;
• Identifying trends for future policy development
• Calculation of other statistics: e.g. Survey weights
Geographic profiles/comparisons.

8. What can’t population projections be
used for?
• Do not attempt to predict future government policies,
economic circumstances or other factors effect on
demographic behaviour.
• Projections are for local authorities and not to give
Wales level projections.

9. The full release is
available on the
Statistics for Wales
website