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National Park Household Projections for
Wales (2014-based):
Principal projection
Key points
• Provide an estimate of the number of future households
by type, they are not forecasts.
• Calculated based on assumptions about:
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Household formation rates
• Assumptions are generally based on recent trends.
What are Household Projections?
National Parks
in Wales have;
20% of the area
but
only 2.6% of the
population.
Household Definitions
Household Definition: One person living alone, or a group of
people (not necessarily related) living at the same address
who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting
room or dining area
This includes Sheltered Accommodation and people living in
caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence.
• 1-person households
• 2-person households
• 3-person households
• 4-person households
• 5+ person households
In total there are 12 household types, these
can be simplified into 5 categories.
The number of individuals
inhabiting certain households is
taken and the population
projections are applied to
determine the number of
inhabitants in those households
in the future.
The number of households are projected to
DECREASE in TWO of the three National
Parks between 2014 and 2029
Brecon Beacons SnowdoniaPembrokeshire
2%5%
9%
14,847
10,443
12,027
15,661
9,514
11,784
Brecon Beacons
Pembrokeshire Coast
Snowdonia
2014 2029
Snowdonia, Pembrokeshire and Brecon Beacons
Average household size is projected to DECREASE within National
Parks from 2.14 persons per household in 2014 to 2.05 in 2029.
Average household size by National Park
in 2014 & projected numbers in 2029
5
(% decrease)
5
(% decrease)
Snowdonia
2014 = 2.1
2029 = 2.0
5
(% decrease)
Pembrokeshire
2014 = 2.1
2029 = 2.0
Brecon Beacons
2014= 2.2
2029= 2.1
What can household projections be
used for?
• Planning services at national and local level
• Preparation of Local Development Plans
• Identifying trends for future policy development
• Geographic profiling and comparisons
What can’t household projections be
used for?
• Do not attempt to predict the effect of future
government policies, economic circumstances,
or changes in the lifestyle of the population on
the projections
• Do not attach any importance to trivial
differences between local authorities or between
differing years for the same local authority
The full release is available on the
Statistics for Wales website

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National park household projections for Wales (2014 based)

  • 1. National Park Household Projections for Wales (2014-based): Principal projection Key points
  • 2. • Provide an estimate of the number of future households by type, they are not forecasts. • Calculated based on assumptions about: - Births - Deaths - Migration - Household formation rates • Assumptions are generally based on recent trends. What are Household Projections?
  • 3. National Parks in Wales have; 20% of the area but only 2.6% of the population.
  • 4. Household Definitions Household Definition: One person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area This includes Sheltered Accommodation and people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence.
  • 5. • 1-person households • 2-person households • 3-person households • 4-person households • 5+ person households In total there are 12 household types, these can be simplified into 5 categories. The number of individuals inhabiting certain households is taken and the population projections are applied to determine the number of inhabitants in those households in the future.
  • 6. The number of households are projected to DECREASE in TWO of the three National Parks between 2014 and 2029 Brecon Beacons SnowdoniaPembrokeshire 2%5% 9% 14,847 10,443 12,027 15,661 9,514 11,784 Brecon Beacons Pembrokeshire Coast Snowdonia 2014 2029
  • 7. Snowdonia, Pembrokeshire and Brecon Beacons Average household size is projected to DECREASE within National Parks from 2.14 persons per household in 2014 to 2.05 in 2029. Average household size by National Park in 2014 & projected numbers in 2029 5 (% decrease) 5 (% decrease) Snowdonia 2014 = 2.1 2029 = 2.0 5 (% decrease) Pembrokeshire 2014 = 2.1 2029 = 2.0 Brecon Beacons 2014= 2.2 2029= 2.1
  • 8. What can household projections be used for? • Planning services at national and local level • Preparation of Local Development Plans • Identifying trends for future policy development • Geographic profiling and comparisons
  • 9. What can’t household projections be used for? • Do not attempt to predict the effect of future government policies, economic circumstances, or changes in the lifestyle of the population on the projections • Do not attach any importance to trivial differences between local authorities or between differing years for the same local authority
  • 10. The full release is available on the Statistics for Wales website