LESSON 5 drrr sir mark.pptx
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The document discusses key parameters for quantifying hazards, including magnitude, intensity, speed of onset, duration, and aerial extent. It describes quantitative approaches that use mathematical models and historical data, qualitative approaches using expert rankings, probabilistic approaches estimating likelihoods based on past records, and deterministic approaches selecting a past event of a given severity to assess consequences. Hazard assessment is defined as estimating the probabilities of potentially damaging phenomena within a time period for defined areas.
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Appendix D Hazard Analysis ProcessInstructor GuideAppendix .docx
Appendix D: Hazard Analysis Process
Instructor Guide
Appendix D
HAZARD ANALYSIS PROCESS
Finding out what the hazards are is the first step in any effort to reduce community vulnerability. Hazard analysis involves identifying all of the hazards that potentially threaten a community and analyzing them individually to determine the degree of threat that is posed by each. Hazard analysis determines:
· What hazards can occur.
· How often they are likely to occur.
· How severe the situation is likely to get.
· How these hazards are likely to affect the community.
· How vulnerable the community is to the hazard.
This information is used in the development of both mitigation and emergency plans. It indicates which hazards merit special attention, what actions might be taken to reduce the impact of those hazards, and what resources are likely to be needed.
Hazard analysis requires completion of five steps:
1. Identify the hazards.
2. Profile each hazard.
3. Develop a community profile.
4.
Compare and prioritize risk.
5.
Create and apply scenarios.
Step 1: Identify Hazards
The first step in hazard analysis is to put together a list of hazards that may occur in the community. A community hazard analysis should consider all types of hazards. Categories of hazards include natural hazards such as storms and seismological events; technological hazards such as nuclear power plants, oil or gas pipelines and other hazardous materials facilities; and civil or political hazards such as a neighborhood that has been the scene of rioting or large demonstrations. Cascading emergencies—situations when one hazard triggers others in a cascading fashion—should be considered. For example, an earthquake that ruptured natural gas pipelines could result in fires and explosions that dramatically escalate the type and magnitude of events. Information about hazards may be collected from existing analyses and historical data.
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· New mitigation measures (e.g., a new levee or overflow spillway, new zoning ordinances designed to reduce the amount of damage caused by a specific hazard, or reconstruction of bridges and overpasses).
· The opening or closing of facilities or structures that pose potential secondary hazards (e.g., hazardous materials facilities and transport routes).
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1.
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2.
Are there hazards that are not included in the existing analysis that pose a potential threat to the community?
3.
Does the hazard ana.
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2) Deterministic scenario modeling to estimate probable maximum losses from terrorist attacks. This reduces uncertainty but does not address probability of extreme losses.
3) The use of expert judgment in terrorism risk assessment and efforts to minimize subjectivity through quantitative modeling of underlying processes.
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This document discusses the evolution of terrorism risk modeling from qualitative approaches relying on expert judgment to more quantitative analytical methods. It describes how terrorism risk modeling has progressed from:
1) Qualitative approaches based on underwriter experience to more formal analytical methods incorporating scenario modeling and probabilistic approaches.
2) Deterministic scenario modeling of maximum credible attacks to probabilistic models incorporating probabilities of different attack scenarios.
3) Greater use of quantitative tools like controlled Markov chain models of the terrorism-counterterrorism conflict and models of adaptive learning and target selection incorporating concepts from fields like cybernetics and game theory.
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Dimensions in Risk Measurement
It is widely accepted that risk is calculated by multiplying the impact of an event by its probability of occurrence. Here, Hernan Huwyler has a look at some alternatives for measuring risk and how they fit into the day-to-day risk management framework. This article is aimed at clarifying common definitions and specific benefits of additional dimensions for measuring risks. It allows customization of risk methodology and registry to accommodate wider stakeholders’ needs.
Risk velocity refers to the time elapsed from the event occurrence until the performance is impacted by a gain or a loss. It assesses how fast the chain of events will actually affect the business, in other words, the speed of onset. For instance, a high-risk velocity is a situation in which the consequences are immediately reflected into the business objectives such as a fire, an earthquake and many other natural hazards.
Risk vulnerability refers to the tendency of assets to be affected by risks. It assesses how well the assets of a company are prepared to react to risks, including the mitigation plans and the crisis management skills. This variable is highly popular in information security, health and disaster risk assessments.
Risk control effectiveness refers to how effectively the underlying processes and assets are controlled by the company. For instance, a robust control and compliance environment helps in the effectiveness of risk management plans. High effectiveness reduces the probability
Risk preparedness refers to how effectively the company reacts once an event occurs, for instance by having implemented contingency plans, cost and schedule reserves or incident management tools. This dimension assesses the capacity to respond to and recover from a risk event. It measures the ex-ante investments in implementing early warnings, emergency and contingency measures and business continuity plans. High preparedness reduces the impact of a risk, particularly for high-velocity risks.
Risk volatility refers to the stability of a risk over time, which makes its measurement difficult. The nature of emerging risks and unfamiliarity with new and undefined risk factors increases volatility. For instance, ever-changing compliance regulations increase the risk of receiving sanctions and litigation. Risks cannot be properly modelled and measured when the volatility in their factors is high to extreme.
Risk programs adapt expeditiously in a more uncertain and volatile world. In this context, enterprise risk management should improve the continuous process to predict how the reputational and financial performance will be impacted by different variables. Risk managers should be pragmatic when deciding what dimensions are cost-effective to support the decision-making process of their companies
Appendix D Hazard Analysis ProcessInstructor GuideAppendix .docx
Appendix D: Hazard Analysis Process
Instructor Guide
Appendix D
HAZARD ANALYSIS PROCESS
Finding out what the hazards are is the first step in any effort to reduce community vulnerability. Hazard analysis involves identifying all of the hazards that potentially threaten a community and analyzing them individually to determine the degree of threat that is posed by each. Hazard analysis determines:
· What hazards can occur.
· How often they are likely to occur.
· How severe the situation is likely to get.
· How these hazards are likely to affect the community.
· How vulnerable the community is to the hazard.
This information is used in the development of both mitigation and emergency plans. It indicates which hazards merit special attention, what actions might be taken to reduce the impact of those hazards, and what resources are likely to be needed.
Hazard analysis requires completion of five steps:
1. Identify the hazards.
2. Profile each hazard.
3. Develop a community profile.
4.
Compare and prioritize risk.
5.
Create and apply scenarios.
Step 1: Identify Hazards
The first step in hazard analysis is to put together a list of hazards that may occur in the community. A community hazard analysis should consider all types of hazards. Categories of hazards include natural hazards such as storms and seismological events; technological hazards such as nuclear power plants, oil or gas pipelines and other hazardous materials facilities; and civil or political hazards such as a neighborhood that has been the scene of rioting or large demonstrations. Cascading emergencies—situations when one hazard triggers others in a cascading fashion—should be considered. For example, an earthquake that ruptured natural gas pipelines could result in fires and explosions that dramatically escalate the type and magnitude of events. Information about hazards may be collected from existing analyses and historical data.
Existing Hazard Analysis. If the community has an existing hazard analysis, don’t “reinvent the wheel”. The best way to begin is by reviewing the existing hazard analysis and identifying any changes that may have occurred since it was developed or last updated. Examples of the kinds of changes within or near the community that could cause hazard analysis information to change over time include:
· New mitigation measures (e.g., a new levee or overflow spillway, new zoning ordinances designed to reduce the amount of damage caused by a specific hazard, or reconstruction of bridges and overpasses).
· The opening or closing of facilities or structures that pose potential secondary hazards (e.g., hazardous materials facilities and transport routes).
When reviewing the hazard analysis, determine three things:
1.
Do all of the hazards included in the hazard analysis still pose a threat to the community?
2.
Are there hazards that are not included in the existing analysis that pose a potential threat to the community?
3.
Does the hazard ana.
Environmental Risk Assessment by Mhammed Nour
This document discusses environmental risk assessment (ERA). It defines ERA as a generic term for tools and techniques used to gather available information about environmental risks and make judgments about them. The document outlines key steps in ERA, including hazard identification, exposure assessment, and risk estimation. It also discusses challenges like uncertainty, different levels of ERA, and the importance of risk communication. Overall, the document provides an introduction and overview of ERA, its relationship to environmental impact assessment, and considerations for effectively implementing ERA.
CHAPTER 7 Risk Assessment, Security Surveys, and PlanningLEARNIN.docx
CHAPTER 7 Risk Assessment, Security Surveys, and Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, the reader should be able to
· ■ define risk and risk assessment.
· ■ list and describe five distinct types of risk that threaten individuals and organizations.
· ■ discuss management techniques associated with risk elimination, reduction, and mitigation.
· ■ evaluate risks to determine vulnerability, probability, and criticality of loss.
· ■ conduct a risk assessment utilizing subjective as well as objective measurements.
· ■ conduct a security survey.
· ■ analyze needs identified through a risk assessment.
· ■ develop appropriate courses of action to eliminate, reduce, or mitigate risks identified in a risk assessment.
· ■ discuss the importance of the budget process.
· ■ demonstrate knowledge of crime prevention through environmental design.
· ■ demonstrate knowledge of emergency planning.
INTRODUCTION
A major focus for security management is the concept of risk. Subjective information as well as objective measurement instruments (such as a security survey) are used in an essential first step of a planning process designed to identify and assess the threat posed by each risk source. As the planning process proceeds, security personnel make recommendations and determine the financial impact of any potential risk mitigation strategy. Planning activities also involve preparation for emergency situations and consideration of anticrime measures available through environmental manipulation.
THE CONCEPT OF RISK
Risk Defined
Risk may be defined as the possibility of suffering harm or loss, exposure to the probability of loss or damage, an element of uncertainty, or the possibility that results of an action may not be consistent with the planned or expected outcomes. A decision maker evaluates risk conditions to predict or estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. From a security perspective, risk management is defined as the process involved in the anticipation, recognition, and appraisal of a risk and the initiation of action to eliminate the risk entirely or reduce the threat of harm to an acceptable level. A risk involves a known or foreseeable threat to an organization’s assets: people, property, information, or reputation. Risk cannot be totally eliminated. However, effective loss prevention programs can reduce risk and its impact to the lowest possible level. An effective risk management program can maximize asset protection while minimizing protection costs (Fay, 2000; Fischer & Janoski, 2000; Kovacich & Halibozek, 2003; Robbins & Coulter, 2009; Simonsen, 1998; Sweet, 2006).
Types of Risk
Generally, risk is associated with natural phenomena or threats created by human agents. Natural risks arise from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and storms. Risks created by human beings include acts or failures to act that lead to crime, accidents, or environmental disaster. As many as five distinct types of risk threaten individuals a ...
Gis in disaster managemant
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This document discusses the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in risk management and disaster response. It defines GIS as a system for storing, analyzing, and presenting spatially-referenced data in layers. The document then discusses disaster management and risk assessment methods before explaining how GIS can help with risk assessment for earthquakes, floods, and epidemiology by providing spatial data and modeling capabilities. The conclusion states that GIS is an important tool for risk management by facilitating data collection and risk simulation to aid emergency preparation and response.
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The document provides an outline for a training on risk assessment and risk management in development planning. It discusses defining key terms like hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risk. The risk assessment process involves identifying risks through developing scenarios, analyzing the probability and impacts of risks, and mapping risks. Risk assessment aims to support informed decision making at various timescales and spatial levels to improve disaster risk reduction and management.
Application of Remote Sensing & GIS in Disaster Management
Disasters disrupt communities and cause losses that exceed their ability to cope. They are often caused by natural hazards but can have human origins. Remote sensing using tools like GIS and spatial analysis helps manage disasters at various stages: it assesses hazard/vulnerability, plans evacuation routes and emergency operations, aids search/rescue, and organizes damage/reconstruction data. These tools have made emergency response and management more efficient.
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This document discusses risk assessment and management for industrial activities. It defines key terms like hazard, risk, consequences and provides methods for risk assessment including hazard identification, exposure assessment, hazard assessment and risk characterization. The objectives of risk assessment are outlined as prioritizing safety investments, aiding decision making and developing positive public relations. Risk acceptance criteria and the risk assessment matrix are important tools for evaluating and managing risks.
Tsunami_Wave_Height_Forecasting
This document discusses tsunami wave height forecasting for coastlines with complex geometries using an integrated approach of early warning systems and inundation modeling. It describes the classification of tsunami warning systems, forecasting methods used by the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS), and the use of pre-computed inundation data and coastal forecast zones to provide tsunami forecasts and risk assessments. The integrated approach provides tsunami wave height forecasts at shorelines to inform early warnings and assessments of tsunami risk.
Are catastrophe models able to capture extreme events?
This document discusses whether catastrophe (Cat) models are able to capture extreme events. It introduces the theory of "Dragon-kings", which are rare catastrophic events that do not follow the same statistical distributions as smaller events and represent outliers. The document examines whether Dragon-king events can be predicted by Cat models or if they require additional modeling. It concludes that while the Dragon-king theory poses challenges, Cat models can still capture extreme events when they incorporate both physical and statistical modeling and account for uncertainties.
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LESSON 5 drrr sir mark.pptx
- 2. In a sports event like basketball, heights considered as might. Players of a team are classified according to height so that they take suitable roles. Height is not the only measure of strength for a basketball player. Speed is critical, if not more important in many basketball games. CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARD
- 5. KEY HAZARD PARAMETERS Most hazard quantification methods consider the magnitude and intensity in determining the level of harm that a hazard event might bring. The magnitude of the event is a measure of its strength and is an indication of how destructive it can be. Most hazard events are measured on some kind of scale to give them quantifiable outcome.
- 6. KEY HAZARD PARAMETERS SPEED OF ONSET – is among the most important aspects of hazards. How predictable a hazard and how much lead time is allowed by it, is critical in determining how damaging it will be. The more predictable an event is, the lesser lesser the chance of incurring casualties and damages. Earthquakes, landslides, and flashfloods usually occur without warning. Tsunamis typically can have long warning periods of minutes to hours as long as warning systems are in place. The The same applies to volcanoes which can provide signs of impending eruption weeks or months in advance.
- 7. KEY HAZARDS PARAMETERS Once the onset of the hazard event is known, the duration also becomes a concern as the chance of experiencing severe damage will depend on how long the hazard affects an area. In the same manner, the larger the aerial extent or scope of an event is, the greater the potential for damage will be. The areas affected by landslides and fires are more limited compared with those tsunamis and typhoon.
- 8. HAZARD IDENTIFICATION and ASSESSMENT If you are living in an area exposed to multiple hazards, you should try to gather information about hazards and the threats they pose. Individuals, disaster-related agencies, and planners do this sort of information gathering and analysis as part of their hazard assessment (Hazard Evaluation and Hazard Analysis), which is required to come up with risk assessment. Hazard Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different concepts. Risk Assessment involves both the assessment from a scientific point of view and the socioeconomic impacts of a hazardous event. Thus, without hazard assessment, no risk assessment can be complete. Scientists employ various methods to assess natural hazards. These includes the following:
- 9. “Hazard Assessment is the process of estimating, for defined areas, the probabilities of the occurrence of potentially damaging phenomenon of given magnitude within a specific period of time”. ◦ -UNDRO
- 10. QUANTITATIVE APPROACH Mathematical functions or equations relating the hazard variables used are formulated or adopted to quantify the hazards. Data fro3m the past historical records and from those derived from basic science principles are used to come up with the relationship between the variables considered.
- 11. QUALITATIVE APPROACH Instead of representing with numbers, this method uses expert opinion in ranking in relative terms (e.g., high, moderate, and low or 1, 2, 3…. and so on) the intensity or probability of occurrence of a hazard event. This method is preferred not possible to express numerically one or more variables.
- 12. PROBABILISTIC APPROACH It provides an objective estimate of the probability of each hazard affecting an area or region by considering past record of events. Probability of occurrence of rainfall of a given intensity can be estimated, for example, by ranking past rainfalls and applying the appropriate statistical method of analysis. For earthquakes, probabilistic ground motion maps combine the likely ground shaking caused by earthquakes from all nearby earthquake generators over a specified time period.
- 13. DETERMINISTIC APPROACH This is a more subjective approach of estimating probability. A past event of a given intensity or magnitude is selected and the consequences at certain intensities are described. The use of deterministic hazard assessment avoids the under-estimation of hazard at a site. For instance, a seismically quiescent earthquake generator (seismic gap) has more potential to cause a large- magnitude earthquake than a feature that constantly releases energy in the form of small earthquake events. The phenomenon would be ignored in a probabilistic approach of estimating earthquake hazard and the resulting hazard estimate will not reflect reality.