This document summarizes a presentation on leadership in complex times. It discusses trends like an aging population, declining funding, and increased use of technology that are challenging non-profits. It also covers different types of change and resistance to change. The presentation argues that leadership must acknowledge complexity, be inclusive and adaptive to navigate these challenges. Qualities like identifying different problem types and fostering collective wisdom are important. The goal is a shift to see communities as primarily responsible for members' well-being, with professionals and funders playing supporting roles.

1. LEADERSHIP
IN COMPLEX TIMES
Prepared for:
FCSSAA
“Leading the Way”
conference
Mark Holmgren
Edmonton Alberta 780 299 0780
November 16-18 2011
www.markholmgren.com
1

2. Tackling today’s
global challenges
will require radical
thinking, creative
solutions and
collaborative
action.
-Tim Brown
2

3. Order
Structure
Relationship
Purpose
Unpredictable Independence
Interdependence
Order Beauty
Flexibility
Variance
Creation
Destruction
Renewal
Adaptation
3

4. BIG CHANGE TRENDS
BY 2031…
• Last of the Boomers retire.
• Age expectancy in the mid-80s.
• Seniors increase by 120%.
• Young people decrease by 16%.
• Immigration drives population growth.
• Employment Participation Declines (from
72% to 63%)
• Worker-Retiree ratio 2:1 (5:1 in 1981)
4

5. FUNDING PICTURE
• Funding from governments and major funders is
thin, flat, and at risk.
• Government contracts generally do not cover all
costs.
• How funding is delivered will likely change.
• Corporate giving is not an answer. Corporations
primarily invest in large organizations.
• Corporate Social Responsibility is creating more
complexity
• Social Enterprise will not save the day.
5

6. PHILANTHROPY
• On-Line Giving – it is growing rapidly
• Micro Giving – changing the nature of charity.
Anyone can be a philanthropist!
• Text Giving – the new version of writing a
cheque?
• Leadership and Mega Gifts – how long will a
minority of donors be able to support the
community sector?
6

7. PHILANTHROPY
The growing mindset:
• Global Affinities, Local Action
• Self-directed: the Demonstrable BANG “I” want
to have
• Activism or Charity?
• Unbranded /unorganized philanthropy
7

8. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
• Social Networks
• Crowdsourcing
• Convergence & Dependence
• Increased/Decreased Connectivity
• Impatience
8

9. COMPLEXITY & LEADERSHIP
Based on the work of Brenda Zimmerman
BAKING A CAKE
Recipe is essential
It is tested for
replicability
No great skill required.
Standard results if
recipe followed.
SIMPLE
Easily KNOWN
9

10. COMPLEXITY & LEADERSHIP
Based on the work of Brenda Zimmerman
BUILDING A ROCKET Formulae are critical
and necessary
High level of expertise
Can`t do it alone.
Sending one up
increases assurance of
COMPLICATED the next.
Rockets are similar in
critical ways
10
KNOWABLE

11. COMPLEXITY & LEADERSHIP
Based on the work of Brenda Zimmerman
RAISING A CHILD
Formulae have limited
applicability
Raising one is no
guarantee of the next.
Expertise helps but
relationships are key
COMPLEX
Can`t separate parts from
the whole
11 UNKNOWABLE

12. Credit: CTV Edmonton
Time is too short and things
are too bad for pessimism.
- Dee Hock
12

13. RESOURCING THE
COMMUNITY SECTOR:
THE ADAPTIVE DILEMMA
Steadily Declining Revenues
Steadily Increasing Costs
Steadily Increasing Demand and
Expectations
ADAPTIVE DILEMMA
13 - John Ott

14. WHAT WE NEED MUST HAVE
We must have leadership that acknowledges
the complexity and chaos of the world in which
we live.
We must have leadership that is rooted in the
sometimes grim reality of our day to day world,
yet concurrently is able to fuel our highest
aspirations and embolden us to great change.
14 From the Tamarack Community Collaboration Institute Conference 2010

15. WHAT WE NEED MUST HAVE
We must have leadership that is authentically
inclusive; recognizes multiple truths in the
world; and taps into our shared wisdom.
We must have leadership that is adaptive and
flexible and embraces risk-taking, change and
failure as opportunities for learning.
15 From the Tamarack Community Collaboration Institute Conference 2010

16. TYPES OF CHANGE
Incremental
Minor adjustments to modestly improve an existing
approach
Reformist
Major change to a current approach while maintaining the
overall way of thinking about the challenge
Transformational (Big Change)
Fundamental change to a system or approach based on
new ways of thinking about the challenge and addressing it.
16

17. FOUR ELEMENTS OF CHANGE
17 (John Ott)

18. REASONS FOR RESISTANCE TO CHANGE
From the work of Dr. Homer-Dixon
Cognitive: Cognitive inertia due to availability bias
(assessing change and challenges based on recent
or current experiences)
Emotional: Motivated bias to defend one's identity. It
is hard to change when what you are facing is a
redefinition of yourself and/or your role.
Economic: Misleading price signals. Seeing non
profits as a low cost provider will result in the
dismantling of the sector
18

19. REASONS FOR RESISTANCE TO CHANGE
From the work of Dr. Homer-Dixon
Social: Vested interests pose barriers to making
change that will alter what social position or benefits
we experience.
Political: Short time horizons tend to define problems
in small and often unrealistic chunks. Governments
work in annual cycles and within the context of
elections. Change that falls beyond the short term
may not be sell-able to the public.
19

20. THEORY OF CHANGE
Changes in perception about
community and our collective roles
advance understanding and lead to
changes in
individual, collective, and cross-
sectoral action that, over
time, contribute to improving lives
20
and social conditions.

21. CHANGE PROGRESSION
From To Toward
Experts Own and Experts Facilitate Community includes
Decide How Community Experts
Interacts
Simple Fixes Complicated Complex Solutions
Systems
Help By Numbers Help By Numbers Changed People
Of Activities Being Changed Improving Community
Conditions
Clients are Needs Clients with People with Assets and
and Problems Needs and Aspirations
Problems
Exclusion Inclusion Belonging
21

22. CHANGE PROGRESSION
From To Toward
Selective Forced Collaboration Authentic
Cooperation Relationships
Need More Money Not Enough Money Rethinking Resources
Tweaking Reforming Transformation
Best Practice Evidence Based Community Identified
Innovation Aspirations
Need to Do More Stop all the Scaling up what
of the Same Duplication works.
Logic Model SROI Learning our Way
Together
22

23. PERCEPTION SHIFT
Families and communities are in the
best position to take primary
responsibility for the health and well-
being of their members. This
responsibility is shared with helping
professionals, governments, and
funders.
23
- John Ott

24. PERCEPTION SHIFT
This perception shift calls for helping
professionals, governments, and funders to
include in their mandates two key roles:
(1)strengthening the ability of communities
to promote the health and well-being of
their members, promoting
interdependence in order to break the
cycle of dependence on services; and
24

25. PERCEPTION SHIFT
(2) providing bridge services to people who
do not have natural communities of
support, or whose needs are beyond the
capacity of their families or communities to
meet, while helping to establish or
strengthen their ties to natural communities
of support.
25
- John Ott

26. MUST-HAVE LEADERSHIP QUALITIES
• Able to identify simple, complicated, and
complex problems.
• Able to suspend certainty and have a high
tolerance for ambiguity.
• Able to create conditions for experimentation
and for creative failure.
• Able to work with data and their stories.
• Able to foster and champion collective wisdom
and generative dialogue.
• Able to ask and work with wicked or upside
26 down questions.

27. MUST-HAVE LEADERSHIP QUALITIES
• Able to welcome all that arises.
• Skilled at seeking
diversity, paradoxes, and contradictions.
• Able to focus on what works and why
(appreciative inquiry)
• Able to foster collaborative leadership
within a hierarchical framework.
• Able to inspire people to make personal
change in order to effect community
change.
27

28. THANK YOU TO THESE SOURCES
• Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon
• John Ott
• Brenda Zimmerman
• Stat Canada
• Imagine Canada
• Tamarack Institute
28

29. Mark Holmgren has more than 25 years of experience
working as a consultant or senior staff in the non profit
sector. His consulting practice focuses on helping NPOs
undertake strategic change. His work includes trends
analysis, strategic design, facilitation services, social
Mark Holmgren media strategy, and communications. He also teaches in
Consulting
the Non Profit Executive Leadership program at McEwan
University and is assisting the university with curriculum
review and redesign.
Current or recent clients include: Bissell Centre, United
Way, The Family Centre, Partners for Kids, Head Start,
The Food Bank, The Support Network, Return to Rural,
and the NPVS Table of ANVSI.
Mark is the former executive director of Operation
Friendship and worked for two United Ways as a vice
president and as a COO for a software development
company.
29 www.markholmgren.com