The nature of the knowledge work problem is growing faster than the capabilities of effective solutions for it. A few of the key problems faced by businesses over the next decade will involve the social contracts with their employees and partners as the adaptability and flexibility enabled by technology become requirements, not opportunities. How do businesses capture the critical tacit knowledge of their older employees as they retire? How do businesses enable new employees to be productive in different ways with new technologies and the skills that come with them? Much of what we know about today will not be relevant in 10 years. In this presentation, Mark Bernstein shares research done on the Knowledge Work 2020 topic in a collaboration between PARC and Xerox Innovation Group researchers (in Canada, France, and New York). Findings point to more intelligent systems operating on information supporting humans engaged in complex tasks that require knowledge to make decisions; more use of collaborative and social technologies to mediate the time and space problem of distributed and even asynchronous work around the globe; and much more networked computation operating in the world at large.

1. Knowledge Work 2020The future of knowledge workand what it might mean to each of you Mark Bernstein CEO, PARC

3. work processes are mediated via digital information flows,

4. knowledge tasks are becoming automated,

6. evaluating … retrieving … organizing… securing … analyzing… storing… sharing… applying… presenting… The future of work is knowledge work Core knowledge work activities … information with the goal of making decisions and delivering services

7. More knowledge work concepts Management Marketing Customers Finance Partners Engineering Legal Procurement Manufacturing Subcontractors Quality Suppliers Tools and applications that support orautomate knowledge work activities: Information/document management systems Search, analysis, sensemaking, recommendation, planning, and decision support tools Communication, collaboration, andknowledge sharing tools Education and training tools Knowledge domains of amanufacturing organization:

9. Information

10. Humans

11. OrganizationsTechnology is driving the productivity of knowledge work. Information is the basis for knowledge and decision making. Humans are performing the work. Organizationsprovide the structure and networks for knowledge work.

12. Knowledge work 2020 scenarios To explore Knowledge Work 2020, we developed a baseline scenario, key uncertainties The following slides highlight the major trends that will impact knowledge work toward 2020, organized around the four components: 1. Technology 2. Information 3. Human 4. Organization

13. 1. Technology The real and the digitalare intimately connected … … in virtual worlds and augmented realities. Any information or experience, real or virtual, can be recorded … … and distributed at high bandwidth world-wide … meaning anytime anywhere access to intelligence and expertise. Reality online and navigation systems for work and life!

14. 1. Technology Computers understand some human expression, automate simple workflow tasks, make specified autonomous decisions, … but most knowledge in intelligent agents is still crafted by human experts. We continue to deal with informationoverload and complex tasks … … while productivity tools give us unprecedented insight and control. Imagine TurboTask for all your complex jobs!

15. 1. Technology - reflection Fast, embedded, networked computers everywhere Virtual worlds and augmented realities Workflow automation and knowledge-based support tools Autonomous machines for dedicated tasks How does the virtual exist in your company? Where does digital support exist? What form? Do workers’ technologies play? integrate? What role does tech play in decision-making?

16. 2. Information In 2020, most information is widely available, free, … … but still largely authored for human consumption (text, images, video, audio, …) Human conversations easily span space, time … … but much B2B information is unstructured. All information is available in digital form … … with embedded provenance and DPRM. And, paper will largely disappear fromcompany-internal business processes. Wikipedia and YouTube are only the beginning…

17. 2. Information What we know is captured in knowledge bases … … and can be applied by others in our network. There is tremendous value in domain knowledge … … but knowledge for intelligent agents is still costly. To understand, believe, and control thereasoning of automated agents … … we rely on sophisticated security and explanation technologies. Knowledge sharing systems & tools for all your enterprise knowledge!

18. 2. Information - reflection Huge amounts of dynamic information across many media Much communication relying on unstructured information Pervasive knowledge bases and knowledge sharing Printing is no longer needed in the office What ‘jobs’ for digital media in a company? Is there structured-unstructured permeability? How do your skills become business assets? When does info evolve into knowledge? So?

19. 3. Human In 2020, knowledge work automation … … follows the evolution of factory automation. We have automated … … what is routine or laborious and of value. We have not automated … … what is custom, needs significant commonsense, tacit, or contextual knowledge, or builds on human relationship skills. Even many of those jobs are supported by intelligent tools … … so novices and people with generic skills are able to do them. Automated transactions and self-service everywhere!

20. 3. Human Unlike manufacturing, many knowledge work jobs … … can be done anywhere by anybody. Here or overseas; at home or on the road; part-time or by free agents. And if they require a person on site … … a lower-skilled worker with remote coaching is often sufficient. This increasingly divides knowledge workers … … into experts and “librarians”. Your experts can be everywhere … and your workers can be anywhere!

22. foreign workers,

23. on-demand education,

24. easy-to-learn knowledge tools, and

25. automation.With intelligent tutoring agents andwidely available information … … anybody has access to personalized education. A majority of novices supported by experts and knowledge-based tools!

26. 3. Human - reflection Automation of routine knowledge work Intelligent tools supporting non-experts Remote work and remote coaching Global sourcing and personalized education What is the social contract with employees? Who owns the distributed knowledge? How? What support tools guide optimal outcomes? When do tasks get identified and addressed?

27. Free agents as apercentage of workforce 4. Organization In 2020, most work is done by small companies and independent workers … … spread across the globe. Large companies consist of a small, stable core … … and a large “cloud” of independent, temporary, local, mobile employees and contractors. Most knowledge workers work in distributed teams … … collaborating remotely in virtual environments. Small companies are global, large companies feel local…

28. 4. Organization Companies need to continuously and rapidly adapt … … relying on decentralization, outsourcing, and open innovation. Many products are designed, assembled,and sold by temporary alliances … … formed on-demand from a global pool, tailored to each need. Insufficient regulation and security concerns may impede such alliances … … but standardization and on-line markets are removing these concerns. Behind the scenes, a continuously evolving value chain!

29. 4. Organization - reflection A majority of small companies and independent workers Core + cloud enterprises Global organizations, remote collaboration Market places for dynamic alliances and open innovation Where are the resources that distinguish you? What are the value chains that now matter? Is sustainable advantage only in the “how”? Are there models that you can’t consider?

30. The key trends - summary Automated knowledge work … many workflows automated … handcrafted knowledge-based systems … the real and digital intimately linked Information … widely accessible, much of it free … structured and proprietary in narrow domains … majority still authored for human consumption Digitization … all information available in digital form … paper removed from business processes … many fewer printed pages Human knowledge work … nonstandard business communication … commonsense reasoning, tacit/contextual knowledge … high-value custom work,emotional intelligence Web and embedded computing … ubiquitous Web devices, connectivity … ubiquitous embedded networked computers … 1000s of computers per user Remote/distributed work … many knowledge work jobs done remotely … globally standardized work components … teams predominantly distributed

31. Further key trends… Computer processing … exponential increase in power, storage, networking, Rights & trust … content with embedded provenance … including digital property rights, security … information will have embedded explanation Flexible employment … work increasingly at home or on the road … graying workforce, expert skills shortage … the affordances Computer interaction … natural, with cameras projectors, touch, gestures.. … effective voice interaction will still require training … high-value custom work,emotional intelligence Education & training … lifelong learning w/ on-demand mentors … intelligent tutoring agents widely available … web-based information is broadly linked Companies … work done by small companies & free agents … large companies are small stable cores w/ clouds … products will be sold globally, on-demand alliances

32. Knowledge work 2020 scenarios We developed a world contextscenario, a knowledge work baseline scenario, and key uncertainties that can drive extreme outcomes against the indicated scenarios. The focus is on the baseline scenario,organized around the four components: As an aside, these are key uncertainties: driving the productivityof knowledge work Technology Free-form and diverse information or structured and standardized? basis for knowledgeand decision making Structure Information Humans or intelligent agents performing the work? performing the work Intelligence Human Mix of paper and digital orall digital all the time? structure within which knowledge work gets done Digitization Organization Free and open informationor knowledge monopolies? Availability Scarce and expensive orplenty and cheap? Energy

34. Information tools that span the structured & unstructured

35. Responsibility to enable smarter workers & working decisions