Knowledge basesession2 c_jantz
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This document summarizes an urban growth trends study in the Upper Delaware Basin from 1984 to 2030 using the SLEUTH land use change model. Input data included transportation networks, slope, and satellite-derived urban land cover from 1984, 1995, and 2005. Development likelihood layers identified protected, less likely, and more likely areas for development based on different buffer distances for streams and wetlands. Three growth rate scenarios - linear, 50% increase, and 25% increase - were developed and translated into smart growth, best resource protection, and limited planning maps to project future urban growth under different land use policies.
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- 1. Urban growth trends in the Upper Delaware Basin, 19842030 Dr. Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science cajant@ship.edu
- 3. The SLEUTH model •Developed by Keith Clarke (UCSB), sponsored by the USGS Urban Dynamics Program •Widely used, well-established http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/
- 4. Input data sets • Transportation • Slope • Urban time series • 1984, 1995, 2005 • Derived from Landsat satellite images • Development likelihood (exclusion/attraction layer) • Identifies lands that are: • Completely protected from development • Less likely to be developed • More likely to be developed
- 5. In NJ, buffers of 300 ft were applied to category 1 streams, 150 ft for trout maintenance streams, and 50 ft buffers on all other streams. Wetlands were buffered by 100 ft. In NY, streams and wetlands were buffered by 100 ft. In PA, streams and wetlands were buffered by 50 ft.
- 7. How much growth will there be in the future? 1,000 We developed three “reasonable” growth rate scenarios Area of urban land cover (km2) 900 800 700 600 Observed 500 Linear 50% Increase 400 25% Increase 300 200 100 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040
- 8. And assumed different land use policies… • Scenarios were developed collaboratively with stakeholder input (i.e. NPS, DRBC, county and municipal planning offices) • Baseline/business as usual • Smart growth • Focus growth into county-designated growth areas, around transit stations, and strengthen protection on natural resources. • Best for resource protection • Start with smart growth, but expand and strengthen protection on natural resources. • Limited planning/limited protection • Start with baseline, but weaken protection on natural resources and encourage “sprawl” development.
- 9. Scenarios were translated into maps…
- 13. Thank you. Dr. Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science cajant@ship.edu