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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                     25th January 2012
         Indices *              Close           % Chg.     Mirroring the positive set of global market cues, the domestic
 BSE SENSEX                    16995.77           1.46     markets witnessed a flat but positive opening. However, the
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5127.35           1.61     markets drifted lower ahead of the RBI’s policy meet, The
 NIFTY FEB. FUT.                5148.30           1.93     markets rose sharply once the RBI announced a 50bps CRR
 India VIX                       21.42           -3.25     cut. The markets showed no signs of weakness though
                                                           occasional bouts of profit taking and selling pressure were
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                     witnessed. The markets ended the day with moderate gains
                     Level 1    Level 2         Level 3    to close near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the
Support               5037       4987            4747      day were L&T, SBI, IDFC, Hindalco, JP Associates, PNB,
Resistance            5161       5225            5361      Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, Rel. Comm. and ICICI Bank.
        Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                      Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst
50 Day SMA                      4822.87                    higher volumes. The global market set of cues are
                                               ◄Negative
100 Day SMA                     4945.74                    divergent. The domestic markets are likely to witness a
200 Day SMA                     5211.99        ◄Negative
                                                           firm opening. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day
                                                           SMA and 100-day SMA, which are short term positives.
             Volume (Lacs Shares)          *               Moreover, the MACD, RSI, and KST are placed above
                   24/01/12    23/01/12         % Chg.     their respective averages, which would help in
BSE                  3705        2222            66.74     witnessing buying support. The KST and MACD are also
NSE                  8749        6291            39.08
                                                           placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed
                                                           above its October 2011 descending trend line and has
Total               12454        8513            46.30
                                                           moved above the November 2010 descending trend line,
             Turnover ( ` Crores)          *               which is a positive sign for the markets. However, a few
                   24/01/12    23/01/12         % Chg.
                                                           technical negatives continue to prevail and are likely to
                                                           cap the upside gains. The Stochastic has slipped below
BSE                 4673.08     2159.90          116.36
                                                           its average and is still placed in the over bought zone.
NSE                14225.83    10155.08          40.09
                                                           Moreover, the RSI has moved in the over bought zone.
NSE F&O            205305.78   111827.75         83.59     Both these conditions would lead to intermediate bouts
Total              224204.69   124142.73         80.60     of profit taking and selling pressure. The Nifty continues
                                                           to trade below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)              *
                                                           placed below the 100-day SMA. All these conditions
                   24/01/12    23/01/12         % Chg.
                                                           would lead to selling pressure especially at higher levels.
Index Fut.          858104      448814           91.19     The ADX line, -DI line are moving sideways. However, the
Stock Fut.         1327062      973860           36.27     +DI line is placed at 37.83 level indicating buyers are
Index Opt.         5622602     2759708           103.74    gaining strength. The market sentiment remains
Stock Opt.          295903      241372           22.59     tentatively positive. Now, it is important that the markets
Total              8103671     4423754           65.95     witness follow up buying support for the Nifty to move
                                                           further and test the 5161 resistance level. Intermediate
             Market Breadth (NSE) *                        bouts of profit taking and selling pressure are likely to be
Advances                          907                      witnessed amidst volatile and choppy trade due to
Declines                          579                      derivative segment expiry. In the meanwhile the markets
Same                              81                       would take cues from the earnings season, the global
Total                            1567
                                                           markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty
                                                           are placed at 5037, 4987, 4747 and 4563. The Nifty faces
A/D Ratio                       1.57 : 1
                                                           resistance at the 5161, 5225 and 5361 levels.
NOTE -   *- Source – BSE & NSE
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                     Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                  Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                www.keynotecapitals.com
Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)

                                                                                     Stop
                                                        Initiation        Stop       Loss                      Target
      Stock               Close          Action           Price          Loss *       (%)          Target       (%)            Remarks
ACC                       1138.85       Buy Above          1146.00       1108.00        3.32         1230          7.33
Century Textiles            264.10      Buy Above            265.00       255.50        3.58          286          7.92
Divis Labs                  794.60      Buy Above            799.00       780.50        2.32          840          5.13
HDFC                        700.55      Buy Above            702.00       688.00        1.99          733          4.42
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis.

                                                                  Intra-day Resistance                        Intra-day Support
       Indices               Close         Pivot Point           R1       R2         R3                 S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                      16996                16939       17107      17219          17499         16827        16658         16378
S&P CNX NIFTY                    5127                 5106        5162        5197          5289            5071        5015         4924
NIFTY FEB. FUT.                  5148                 5133        5191        5234          5336            5090        5031         4930




                                                                Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
             4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                              www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are
required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based
upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any
jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote
Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable
though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected
with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their
own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this
material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including
those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company’s fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking
statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment
businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short
positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other
transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the
financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company
(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and
opinions.
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation
was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior
written consent.




                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
     th
    4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                     www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 250112

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 25th January 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Mirroring the positive set of global market cues, the domestic BSE SENSEX 16995.77 1.46 markets witnessed a flat but positive opening. However, the S&P CNX NIFTY 5127.35 1.61 markets drifted lower ahead of the RBI’s policy meet, The NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5148.30 1.93 markets rose sharply once the RBI announced a 50bps CRR India VIX 21.42 -3.25 cut. The markets showed no signs of weakness though occasional bouts of profit taking and selling pressure were S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels witnessed. The markets ended the day with moderate gains Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 to close near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the Support 5037 4987 4747 day were L&T, SBI, IDFC, Hindalco, JP Associates, PNB, Resistance 5161 5225 5361 Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, Rel. Comm. and ICICI Bank. Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst 50 Day SMA 4822.87 higher volumes. The global market set of cues are ◄Negative 100 Day SMA 4945.74 divergent. The domestic markets are likely to witness a 200 Day SMA 5211.99 ◄Negative firm opening. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA, which are short term positives. Volume (Lacs Shares) * Moreover, the MACD, RSI, and KST are placed above 24/01/12 23/01/12 % Chg. their respective averages, which would help in BSE 3705 2222 66.74 witnessing buying support. The KST and MACD are also NSE 8749 6291 39.08 placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above its October 2011 descending trend line and has Total 12454 8513 46.30 moved above the November 2010 descending trend line, Turnover ( ` Crores) * which is a positive sign for the markets. However, a few 24/01/12 23/01/12 % Chg. technical negatives continue to prevail and are likely to cap the upside gains. The Stochastic has slipped below BSE 4673.08 2159.90 116.36 its average and is still placed in the over bought zone. NSE 14225.83 10155.08 40.09 Moreover, the RSI has moved in the over bought zone. NSE F&O 205305.78 111827.75 83.59 Both these conditions would lead to intermediate bouts Total 224204.69 124142.73 80.60 of profit taking and selling pressure. The Nifty continues to trade below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * placed below the 100-day SMA. All these conditions 24/01/12 23/01/12 % Chg. would lead to selling pressure especially at higher levels. Index Fut. 858104 448814 91.19 The ADX line, -DI line are moving sideways. However, the Stock Fut. 1327062 973860 36.27 +DI line is placed at 37.83 level indicating buyers are Index Opt. 5622602 2759708 103.74 gaining strength. The market sentiment remains Stock Opt. 295903 241372 22.59 tentatively positive. Now, it is important that the markets Total 8103671 4423754 65.95 witness follow up buying support for the Nifty to move further and test the 5161 resistance level. Intermediate Market Breadth (NSE) * bouts of profit taking and selling pressure are likely to be Advances 907 witnessed amidst volatile and choppy trade due to Declines 579 derivative segment expiry. In the meanwhile the markets Same 81 would take cues from the earnings season, the global Total 1567 markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5037, 4987, 4747 and 4563. The Nifty faces A/D Ratio 1.57 : 1 resistance at the 5161, 5225 and 5361 levels. NOTE - *- Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks ACC 1138.85 Buy Above 1146.00 1108.00 3.32 1230 7.33 Century Textiles 264.10 Buy Above 265.00 255.50 3.58 286 7.92 Divis Labs 794.60 Buy Above 799.00 780.50 2.32 840 5.13 HDFC 700.55 Buy Above 702.00 688.00 1.99 733 4.42 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on Closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 16996 16939 17107 17219 17499 16827 16658 16378 S&P CNX NIFTY 5127 5106 5162 5197 5289 5071 5015 4924 NIFTY FEB. FUT. 5148 5133 5191 5234 5336 5090 5031 4930 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com