Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 17, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Jan 14           Change         US Market                                 Jan 14             Change
SET Index                                      1032.26               -2.82       Dow Jones                              11,787.38                 +55.48
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      44,127.10           +5,061.94       Nasdaq                                  2,662.88                    -4.39
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                 -4,322.52           -4,267.21       S&P 500                                 1,293.24                   +9.48
Thai Bond Market                                 Jan 14           Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                          3.33                  +3 bp
Total Return Index                               201.29              +0.10       US 2yr T-note (%)                            0.58                   -0 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                    NYMEX crude ($/b)                          91.54                   +0.14
Yield Curve               1m        3m        6m         1yr           2yr         3yr       5yr         7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Jan 14 (%)               1.94      2.03      2.26       2.58          2.86        3.06      3.20        3.52       3.78       3.91        4.02        4.16
Change (bp)                 0         0          -1         0           -2          -3         -6         -6         -1           0          1           1
Interbank Rates           Jan 17       Jan 13              BIBOR             1w          1m           2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    1.750-2.210            Jan 14         2.25625      2.27125 2.31625 2.37500 2.46484 2.54750 2.65000
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day              1m             SIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 14                    2.00000        2.00000               -                -             Jan 14        0.27110         0.31100           0.46800
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m           9m         1yr            LIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 14             0.59483     0.70517 0.99296 1.32750 1.60226               1.86021          Jan 14        0.26125         0.30313           0.45594
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr               3yr              4yr              5yr              7yr              10yr
Jan 17        Bid/Ask                 1.68/1.72        2.34/2.38         2.86/2.90       3.25/3.29         3.51/3.55       3.88/3.92         4.22/4.26
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                         T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                     30.34                  30.44                       30.69                                  0.00/1.71
EUR                                    40.3875                40.5213                     41.0388                                -2.57/1.06
GBP                                    47.9800                48.1388                     48.7200                                -1.95/0.86
JPY                                    0.3639                 0.3651                       0.3719                                -0.48/3.75
KBank Technical Analysis                    Jan 17            Jan 14           Support        Resistance          Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.55             30.46             30.50            30.65          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                          82.89             82.94             82.40            82.60          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD                                     1.3335            1.3375            1.3310           1.3435          Sideway        Buy EUR near support




                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    U.S. stocks rose for the week on reduced eurozone’ debt concerns and optimism regarding Q4
                        corporate earnings while Friday’s data were mixed
                   •    China raised reserve requirement ratio for the 4th time in about two months, affirming
                        determination to fight inflation
                   •    Market focus on EU minsters’ meeting early week and shift towards the meeting between the Hu
                        Jintao and Obama on Wednesday


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before declining to a close of 1.338. Euro was
                        supported by positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the debt problems
                    •   USD/THB closed slightly higher due to some USD buying from importers and concerns of
                        monetary tightening in Asia. This week, the baht may range between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Chinese President rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to appreciate against the
                        dollar would help the government in Beijing tame inflation
                   •    European finance chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting strategy with
                        Germany easing its opposition to an expanded arsenal
                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 17, 2011

                                                                                                                                 shifted to the meeting between China’s Premier and the
                     Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                    U.S. president. Issues, political and economic, would be on
    U.S. stocks ended Friday and last week higher, mainly due                                                                    the table and the market is watching out for directions of
    to the positive prospects of corporate earnings for the                                                                      the yuan.
    fourth quarter of last year. JP Morgan reported a record
    high profit. Meanwhile, investors are also optimistic that
    they will hear positive news regarding Eurozone’s debt                                                                                 US Treasuries and Thai rates
    problems as finance ministers meet on Monday and
    Tuesday to discuss further solutions.
                                                                                                                                 The difference between 2- and 30- year Treasury yields
    However, caution was also exercised as China announced                                                                       widened to a record as investors demanded higher
    on Friday a higher reserve requirement ratio for commercial                                                                  compensation when buying longer-term securities on
    banks. The RRR was raised from 18.5% to 19.0%. This                                                                          concern a strengthening U.S. economy will spur inflation.
    was the 4th increase in a short span of about two months
                         th
    and recorded the 7 increase since 2010. Commodities                                                                          The so-called yield curve steepened to 3.96 percentage
    including gold and industrial metals declined sharply, with                                                                  points yesterday, compared with an average of 2.07
    gold ending near $1,359/ounce on Friday.                                                                                     percentage points the past 10 years. Treasuries fell
                                                                                                                                 yesterday as reports showed retail sales and industrial
    This reinforces China’s stance against fighting inflation and                                                                production both rose in December. The Federal Reserve
    restoring stability to its economy. The market is expecting                                                                  will buy up to $21.5 billion in Treasuries next week,
    further interest rate hikes this year, coupled with a stronger                                                               including inflation-indexed securities.
    Chinese yuan and a slower rate of growth. This morning,                                                                      “Rates are headed generally higher from here as we see a
    the economy reported the eight month of deceleration in its                                                                  slow recovery, trending higher,” said Jay Mueller, who
    property price index (6.4% yoy in Dec vs. 7.7% in Nov, the                                                                   manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital
    slowest pace since November 2009).                                                                                           Management in Milwaukee.
       7000                                                                                                14                    The yield on the 30-year bond rose five basis points, or
                                                                                                           12                    0.05 percentage point, to 4.53 percent, from 4.485 percent
       6000
                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                                                 on Jan. 7, according to BGCantor Market Data
       5000                                                                                                8
                                                                                                           6
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
       4000
                                                                                                           4
       3000                                                                                                2
                                                                                                           0                      S&P Index                                                                                              (% )
       2000                                                                                                                       1400                                                                                                    350
                                                                                                           -2
       1000                                                                                                -4                     1300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         300
          Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10                                                          1200
                                                                                                                                  1100                                                                                                   250
              Shanghai Composite (month end, left axis)         China Property Price index % yoy (right axis)
                                                                                                                                  1000
                                                                                                                                   900                                                                                                   200

    U.S. – Today, the financial markets are closed for a public                                                                     800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         150
    holiday. Last Friday, data were mixed but still offered                                                                         700
                                                                                                                                    600                                                                                                  100
    positive signs of continued recovery. Advance retail sales
                                                                                                                                      Mar-09           Jul-09            Nov-09        Mar-10           Jul-10          Nov-10
    figure in Dec was lower than market’s forecast but gained
    0.6% mom nevertheless. For the whole of 2010, retails                                                                                                         S&P Index                  2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
    sales rose by 7.0% from 2009, signaling an improvement in
    consumer spending. Business inventories rose less than
    forecast by 0.2% in Nov as sales accelerated faster than
    stocks. Meanwhile, capacity utilization continued to rise as                                                                 Thai interest rate: IRS yields opened lower on Friday,
    production activities continued to pick up (76.0% in Dec). A                                                                 led by the declines in front-end swap points as banks
    less optimistic data was the consumer sentiment index                                                                        reduce long positions in the THB in the FX swap market.
    which fell from 74.5 at end-Dec to 72.7 in mid-Jan, due to                                                                   Meanwhile, bond yields also closed 2-5bp lower on Friday.
    the concerns of rising energy prices and the jobless                                                                         Local mutual funds continued to sell mid curve bonds and
    recovery.                                                                                                                    the sales were supported by continued offshore demand
        120                                                                                                                      and liquidity from local cooperatives
        110
        100                                                                                                                        %                                     Interest rate swaps
         90
                                                                                                                                     4.0
         80
         70                                                                                                                          3.5
         60                                                                                                                          3.0
         50
         40                                                                                                                          2.5
         30                                                                                                                          2.0
         20
                                                                                                                                     1.5
                05            06              07             08              09             10              11
               Conference Board Consumer Confidence index                Consumer sentiment index (U Mich)                           1.0
                                                                                                                                        1-Nov      11-Nov       21-Nov      1-Dec      11-Dec     21-Dec      31-Dec      10-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                 1Y               2Y               3Y                5Y
    This week, large firms such as IBM, GE, BofA, Citigroup
    and so forth are announcing their Q4 earnings. The results
    are likely to help underpin market views for the medium
    term. Meanwhile, mid-week the attention is likely to be


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 17, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                 Thu 13-Jan-11              Wed 12-Jan-11                   % Change
       1.44
       1.42                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.48                      30.41                       +0.23
       1.40
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       82.81                      82.80                       +0.01
       1.36
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                        1.338                      1.335                       +0.19
       1.34
       1.32                                                                                                                             GBP/USD                       1.5869                     1.5835                       +0.21
       1.30
       1.28                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9630                     0.9640                        -0.10
       1.26
                                                                                                                                        USD/SGD                       1.2873                     1.2853                       +0.16
       1.24
       1.22                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.16                      28.98                       +0.62
          Sep-10               Oct-10               Nov-10             Dec-10               Jan-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,114.6                     1,112.0                      +0.23
                                                             EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       44.27                      44.08                       +0.43
    EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before                                                                                  USD/IDR                       9,054                      9,068                        -0.15
    declining to a close of 1.338, little changed compared to                                                                           USD/MYR                        3.058                      3.053                       +0.16
    Thursday’s close. The euro had been buoyed by investors’
    positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the                                                                           USD/CNY                        6.591                      6.604                        -0.21
                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters
    debt problems and ECB’s Trichet’s comments on rising
                                                                                                                                                                     .FX Consensus Forecast
    inflation in the Eurozone (which in turn, bolstered possibility
    of interest rate pick up relative to the U.S. fed fund rate)                                                                                                        Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011

                                                                                                                                        USD/THB                        30.58                            28.30                   28.00
       37.50                                                                                                80
                                                                                                                                        USD/JPY                        82.94                            86.00                   89.00
       37.00                                                                                                81
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                         1.33                             1.30                    1.30
       36.50                                                                                                82                          GBP/USD                         1.58                             1.55                    1.55
       36.00                                                                                                83
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                         6.59                             6.46                    6.30
       35.50                                                                                                84                          USD/SGD                         1.29                             1.27                    1.25
       35.00                                                                                                85                           USD/IDR                       9,073                            8,860                   8,800
            1-Nov            16-Nov              1-Dec          16-Dec           31-Dec            15-Jan
                                                                                                                                        USD/MYR                         3.06                             3.03                    2.97
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                  USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)
                                                                                                                                        USD/PHP                        44.42                            42.80                   42.00

    USD/JPY continued in range trade, closing little changed                                                                            USD/KRW                        1,114                            1,090                   1,050
    at 82.80. This morning, BOJ’s governor reaffirmed view of                                                                           USD/TWD                        29.02                            29.30                   28.60
    the central bank that the global markets are more stable
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                         0.99                             0.99                    0.96
    currently and that the local economy is improving slowly.
    Remaining concerns lie with the European debt problems,                                                                             NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.76                    0.75
                                                                                                                                   Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
       30.90
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
       30.70
                                                                                                                                                                               Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
       30.50
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                           30.58                   28.30                     28.0
       30.30
       30.10                                                                                                                                 EUR/THB                           40.78                    40.0                     37.0
       29.90                                                                                                                                 JPY/THB                           36.87                   34.70                     29.5
       29.70                                                                                                                                 GBP/THB                           48.45                   47.40                     43.7
       29.50                                                                                                                                 CNY/THB                           4.64                     4.78                      4.2
            Oct-10                      Nov-10                  Dec-10                    Jan-11
                                                                                                                                             AUD/THB                           30.19                    27.4                     26.0
                                                                USD/THB
                                                                                                                                             CHF/THB                           31.68                    29.6                     27.7
    USD/THB closed slightly higher on Friday due to some                                                                           Source: KBank, Bloomberg
    USD buying from importers and concerns of monetary
    tightening in Asia. This week, we expect the baht to range
                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
    between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar.                                                                                             Current                                                                         99.37
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                           + 6.71%
    The Singapore real estate stocks fell 2-4% on Friday after
    authorities imposed stricter rules for the property sector,                                                                  vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 6.39%
    including higher tax penalty for homes sold within a year of                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.44%
    purchase and raising down payment to 40% for second                                                                          vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.21%
    mortgages.
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
    Meanwhile, China raised banks’ reserve requirement ratio                                                                     vs long term average                                                         + 11.76%
    for the fourth time in two months’ period, from 18.5% to                                                                     Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
    19.0%, in a further attempt to reduce liquidity and make                                                                     rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation
    borrowing more costly in the economy. USD/CNY
    reference rate is set little changed at 6.5897 today vs.
    Friday’s 6.5896.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 17, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                            Auction results of BOT Bonds                                                                                        Jan 14
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30             -20         -10               0           +10           +20              +30           +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tenor              Amt.                       Accepted
         LB113A               2.06      2.06            2.06        2.06            2.06          2.07          2.07             2.07          1.82                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (yrs)            (Bt mn)                     Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ratio
           LB116A             2.70      2.59            2.48        2.37            2.26          2.15          2.04             1.92          1.56
                                                                                                                                                                        CB11201A                           0.04             85,000                     1.990/2.048          2.029420       1.36
          LB11NA              3.62      3.33            3.05        2.76            2.48          2.20          1.91             1.63          1.09
                                                                                                                                                                        Source: ThaiBMA
           LB123A             4.22      3.83            3.45        3.06            2.67          2.28          1.90             1.51          0.87
                                                                                                                                                                        Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
          LB12NA              5.35      4.72            4.09        3.46            2.83          2.21          1.58             0.95          0.07
           LB133A             6.00      5.24            4.48        3.73            2.97          2.22          1.46             0.70         -0.30                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                        Symbol                                                                         Auction Date       Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB137A             6.56      5.68            4.80        3.92            3.04          2.16          1.28             0.40         -0.73
          LB13OA              6.99      6.01            5.04        4.06            3.09          2.11          1.14             0.17         -1.06                     LB17OA                             7.09             10,000                      19-Jan-11           10-Oct-17       -
           LB143A             7.29      6.25            5.21        4.17            3.13          2.09          1.05             0.01         -1.28                     LB14NA                             4.00              8,000                      19-Jan-11           26-Nov-14       -
           LB145A             7.80      6.64            5.47        4.31            3.14          1.98          0.81             -0.35 -1.76                            LB21DA                            11.08              7,000                      26-Jan-11           17-Dec-21       -
           LB145B             7.80      6.63            5.47        4.31            3.14          1.98          0.81             -0.35 -1.76                            Source: ThaiBMA
          LB14DA              8.63      7.28            5.93        4.58            3.23          1.88          0.52             -0.83 -2.42                            Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB155A             9.37      7.83            6.29        4.75            3.22          1.68          0.14             -1.40 -3.18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tenor              Amt.
           LB157A             9.23      7.73            6.23        4.73            3.23          1.73          0.23             -1.27 -3.02                            Symbol                                                                         Auction Date       Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (yrs)            (Bt mn)
          LB15DA              10.21 8.46                6.72        4.97            3.23          1.48         -0.26 -2.01 -4.00                                                                                                                                                            -
                                                                                                                                                                        CB11217C                           0.08             25,000                      18-Jan-11           17-Feb-11
           LB167A             10.90 9.02                7.15        5.27            3.40          1.52         -0.35 -2.23 -4.35
                                                                                                                                                                        CB11421B                           0.25             22,000                      18-Jan-11           21-Apr-11       -
          LB16NA              11.45 9.45                7.44        5.44            3.44          1.44         -0.57 -2.57 -4.82
                                                                                                                                                                        CB11721A                           0.50             15,000                      18-Jan-11           21-Jul-11       -
           LB171A             11.52 9.52                7.51        5.50            3.49          1.48         -0.53 -2.53 -4.79
           LB175A             12.07 9.93                7.80        5.66            3.52          1.39         -0.75 -2.89 -5.27                                        BOT13NA                            3.00             40,000                      25-Jan-11           18-Nov-13       -
           LB183A             13.17 10.77 8.37                      5.98            3.58          1.19         -1.21 -3.60 -6.24                                        CB11224C                           0.08             25,000                      25-Jan-11           24-Feb-11       -
           LB183B             12.87 10.55 8.23                      5.90            3.58          1.26         -1.06 -3.38 -5.95                                        CB11428B                           0.25             22,000                      25-Jan-11           28-Apr-11       -
           LB191A             13.88 11.32 8.76                      6.20            3.64          1.08         -1.47 -4.03 -6.83                                        CB11728A                           0.50             15,000                      25-Jan-11           28-Jul-11       -
           LB196A             14.81 12.01 9.22                      6.42            3.63          0.84         -1.96 -4.75 -7.79                                        Source: ThaiBMA
           LB198A             14.37 11.70 9.03                      6.36            3.69          1.02         -1.65 -4.31 -7.23
          LB19DA              14.95 12.16 9.36                      6.57            3.77          0.98         -1.81 -4.60 -7.64
           LB213A             16.08 13.02 9.96                      6.90            3.84          0.79         -2.27 -5.32 -8.62                                        * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
                                                                                                                                                                        during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
           LB214A             15.95 12.93 9.91                      6.89            3.87          0.85         -2.16 -5.18 -8.44                                        cash balance.
          LB22NA              18.02 14.50 10.98 7.46                                3.95          0.43         -3.08 -6.59 -10.35
           LB233A             18.08 14.56 11.03 7.50                                3.98          0.46         -3.06 -6.58 -10.34
           LB236A             19.53 15.65 11.76 7.88                                3.99          0.11         -3.76 -7.64 -11.76
           LB244A             19.67 15.76 11.85 7.95                                4.05          0.15         -3.75 -7.65 -11.79
          LB24DA              20.28 16.22 12.17 8.12                                4.07          0.02         -4.02 -8.07 -12.36
           LB267A             20.82 16.65 12.48 8.32                                4.16          0.00         -4.16 -8.32 -12.72
           LB283A             22.08 17.60 13.13 8.66                                4.19         -0.27 -4.73 -9.19 -13.90
           LB296A             23.79 18.90 14.00 9.10                                4.21         -0.67 -5.56 -10.44 -15.57
           LB383A             28.07 22.11 16.17 10.22 4.28                                       -1.65 -7.58 -13.50 -19.67
           LB396A             29.40 23.12 16.84 10.58 4.31                                       -1.94 -8.19 -14.44 -20.93
          Average             12.96 10.59 8.21                      5.84            3.47          1.10         -1.27 -3.64 -6.26
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                     30.00

                                     20.00

                                     10.00

                                      0.00

                                    -10.00

                                    -20.00

                                    -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Now
                                    -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        LB296A
                                               LB113A

                                                         LB116A
                                                                  LB11NA

                                                                           LB123A

                                                                                    LB133A
                                                                                             LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                  LB15DA

                                                                                                                                           LB167A
                                                                                                                                                    LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                             LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                      LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                               LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                        LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                 LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                          LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 17, 2011

                      Economic News Update                                                                                       EU Begins Talks on Rescue Revamp as
                                                                                                                                 Germany Signals Flexibility: European finance
    Inflation Won’t Drive Yuan Appreciation,                                                                                     chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting
                                                                                                                                 strategy with Germany easing its opposition to an
    China’s Hu Tells Papers: Chinese President Hu                                                                                expanded arsenal and Portugal insisting it will get by
    Jintao rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to                                                                     without an aid package.
    appreciate against the dollar would help the government in
    Beijing tame inflation.                                                                                                      Germany, the leading power in the 17-nation euro region,
                                                                                                                                 is eyeing a March deadline for bolstering the 440 billion-
    Hu, who will meet President Barack Obama in Washington                                                                       euro ($589 billion) rescue fund, drawing up a permanent
    this week, made the comments in responses to written                                                                         aid facility and rewriting the bloc’s budget-deficit rules.
    questions from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington
    Post, the newspapers reported on their websites.                                                                             A rising euro and successful bond auctions in Portugal,
                                                                                                                                 Spain and Italy offered a respite last week from market
    The Chinese president said his government is fighting                                                                        pressure for steps that go beyond the emergency aid
    inflation with a package of policies, including interest rate                                                                program and the European Central Bank’s unprecedented
    increases, and that rising prices can “hardly be the main                                                                    bond purchases.
    factor in determining the exchange rate policy,” according
    to a transcript of the answers. He said the increase in the                                                                  “European leaders need their backs to the wall in order to
    cost of living is “on the whole moderate and controllable,”                                                                  complete their monetary union,” Barry Eichengreen, an
    according to the transcript.                                                                                                 economics professor at the University of California at
                                                                                                                                 Berkeley, said on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance
    Prices are climbing faster in China than in the U.S., making                                                                 Midday” with Tom Keene. “I’m still convinced that’s what
    Chinese goods less competitive, Treasury Secretary                                                                           they’re about to do.”
    Timothy F. Geithner said last week. Speaking in
    Washington on Jan. 12, he said that, while the yuan was                                                                      Germany endorsed the need for a “comprehensive”
    still “substantially undervalued,” the “fundamental forces                                                                   approach to stemming the debt contagion amid concern
    that are pushing Chinese productivity growth and are                                                                         that Greece and Ireland, recipients of 178 billion euros in
    pushing inflation higher will bring about the necessary                                                                      European and International Monetary Fund loans last year,
    adjustment in exchange rates.”                                                                                               will struggle to nurse their economies back to health.
    U.S. lawmakers argue that an undervalued yuan hurts U.S.                                                                     Still, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
    manufacturers and widens the U.S. trade deficit by                                                                           resisted an appeal by the European Commission, the bloc’s
    artificially holding down the price of exported Chinese                                                                      central regulator, for an upgraded anti-crisis toolbox to be
    goods.                                                                                                                       unveiled as soon as a Feb. 4 summit of national leaders.
    While “there are some differences and sensitive issues”                                                                      “We’re working on a comprehensive package so that we
    between the two countries, Hu said, “we both stand to gain                                                                   don’t find ourselves in a situation every few months in
    from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from                                                                          which we have to start discussions all over again,”
    confrontation.”                                                                                                              Schaeuble said on Jan. 13. “A fundamental decision is to
                                                                                                                                 be taken in March.”
    The current international currency system, with the dollar’s
    primacy in as a reserve currency and in trade is “the                                                                        Euro-area finance ministers meet at 5 p.m. today in
    product of the past,” Hu also told the newspapers.                                                                           Brussels. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude
                                                                                                                                 Juncker, the chairman, and European Union Economic and
    He pointed to China’s effort to expand the role of the yuan                                                                  Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn will brief the press in
    in     cross-border     trading   and    investment,   while                                                                 late evening.
    acknowledging it “will be a fairly long process” to make it a
    fully fledged international currency.                                                                                        Europe’s political sands are shifting even as Portuguese
                                                                                                                                 Prime Minister Jose Socrates says the country is beating
    In an allusion to the Federal Reserve’s policy of buying                                                                     deficit-cutting targets and doesn’t need a rescue. The ECB
    $600 billion of Treasuries to stimulate the economy, Hu told                                                                 indicated that its focus may move from maintaining interest
    the newspapers that U.S. monetary policy has a “major”                                                                       rates at a record-low 1 percent to combating inflation,
    impact on global liquidity and on capital flows.                                                                             which reached a two-year high of 2.2 percent in December.
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
    Hu pledged to “continue to improve laws and regulations
    concerning foreign investment,” and offer “a stable and
    transparent legal and policy environment.” He said U.S.
    companies have a level playing field in his country and their
    “innovation, production and business operations in China
    enjoy the same treatment as Chinese enterprises.”                                                                                                       Market Strategists:
    (Source: Bloomberg)                                                                                                                                     Nalin Chutchotitham
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 17, 2011



                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       01/14/2011 12:00                      SI             Retail Sales Ex Auto                                                   NOV                  5.80%                  5.40%                  5.30%                    5.60%
       01/14/2011 12:00                      SI             Retail Sales (YoY)                                                     NOV                  -2.40%                 -2.40%                -2.80%                   -2.60%
       01/14/2011 12:00                      SI             Retail Sales (MoM) sa                                                  NOV                  0.90%                  0.60%                  0.90%                    1.30%
       01/14/2011 12:40                      PH             M3 Money Supply (YoY)                                                 NOV                      --                  7.50%                  7.70%                      --
       01/14/2011 12:45                      PH             Bank Lending Net of RRPs (YoY)                                        NOV                      --                  9.00%                  8.40%                      --
       01/14/2011 12:45                      PH             Bank Lending (YoY)                                                    NOV                      --                 10.30%                  9.10%                      --

       01/14/2011 13:30                      IN             Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%                                          DEC                  8.40%                  8.43%                  7.48%                      --
       01/14/2011 14:00                      GE             CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)                                            DEC F                  1.20%                  1.20%                  1.20%                      --
       01/14/2011 14:00                      GE             CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)                                            DEC F                  1.90%                  1.90%                  1.90%                      --
       01/14/2011 14:00                      EC             EU 25 New Car Registrations                                            DEC                     --                 -3.20%                 -7.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Jan-07                    --                  $17.7B                $19.6B                      --
       01/14/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Jan-07                    --                 $172.4B               $172.1B                      --
       01/14/2011 16:00                       IT            Trade Balance (Total) (Euros)                                          NOV                     --                 -3382M                 -2007M                   -2009M
       01/14/2011 16:00                       IT            Trade Balance Eu (Euros)                                               NOV                     --                 -1438M                 -1004M                   -1006M
       01/14/2011 16:45                      EC             Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY)                                             DEC                  1.10%                  1.10%                  1.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 16:45                      EC             Euro-Zone CPI (MoM)                                                    DEC                  0.60%                  0.60%                  0.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 16:45                      EC             Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)                                                    DEC                  2.20%                  2.20%                  2.20%                    1.90%
       01/14/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa                                             NOV                   1.7B                   -1.9B                  3.6B                     3.5B
       01/14/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Trade Balance                                                NOV                   3.3B                   -0.4B                  5.2B                     4.7B
       01/14/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM)                                        DEC F                  0.40%                  0.40%                  0.40%                      --
       01/14/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY)                                        DEC F                  1.90%                  1.90%                  1.90%                      --
       01/14/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM)                                            DEC F                  0.30%                  0.40%                  0.30%                      --
       01/14/2011 17:00                       IT            CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY)                                            DEC F                  2.00%                  2.10%                  2.00%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Consumer Price Index (MoM)                                             DEC                  0.40%                  0.50%                  0.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM)                                             DEC                  0.10%                  0.10%                  0.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             DEC                  1.30%                  1.50%                  1.10%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY)                                             DEC                  0.70%                  0.80%                  0.80%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             CPI Core Index SA                                                      DEC                   222.2                222.187                221.982                     --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Consumer Price Index NSA                                               DEC                   219.1                219.179                218.803                     --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Advance Retail Sales                                                   DEC                  0.80%                  0.60%                  0.80%                      --
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Retail Sales Less Autos                                                DEC                  0.70%                  0.50%                  1.20%                    1.00%
       01/14/2011 20:30                      US             Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas                                             DEC                  0.30%                  0.40%                  0.80%                    0.60%
       01/14/2011 21:15                      US             Industrial Production                                                  DEC                  0.50%                  0.80%                  0.40%                    0.30%
       01/14/2011 21:15                      US             Capacity Utilization                                                   DEC                  75.60%                76.00%                 75.20%                   75.40%
       01/14/2011 21:55                      US             U. of Michigan Confidence                                             JAN P                   75.5                  72.7                   74.5                      --
       01/14/2011 22:00                      US             Business Inventories                                                   NOV                  0.70%                  0.20%                  0.70%                    0.80%
       01/17/2011 06:30                      AU             TD Securities Inflation YoY%                                           DEC                     --                  3.80%                  3.90%                      --
       01/17/2011 06:30                      AU             TD Securities Inflation MoM%                                           DEC                     --                  0.20%                  0.40%                      --
       01/17/2011 07:00                      CH             China Property Prices                                                  DEC                      7                    6.4                    7.7                      --
       01/17/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (MoM)                                           JAN                     --                  0.30%                 -3.00%                      --
       01/14/2011 12:00                      SI             Retail Sales Ex Auto                                                   NOV                  5.80%                  5.40%                  5.30%                    5.60%
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

KBank daily jan 17

  • 1.
    Capital Markets Research Jan 17, 2011 Thai Stock Market Jan 14 Change US Market Jan 14 Change SET Index 1032.26 -2.82 Dow Jones 11,787.38 +55.48 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 44,127.10 +5,061.94 Nasdaq 2,662.88 -4.39 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -4,322.52 -4,267.21 S&P 500 1,293.24 +9.48 Thai Bond Market Jan 14 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 +3 bp Total Return Index 201.29 +0.10 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.58 -0 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 91.54 +0.14 Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Jan 14 (%) 1.94 2.03 2.26 2.58 2.86 3.06 3.20 3.52 3.78 3.91 4.02 4.16 Change (bp) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 1 1 Interbank Rates Jan 17 Jan 13 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 1.750-2.210 Jan 14 2.25625 2.27125 2.31625 2.37500 2.46484 2.54750 2.65000 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 14 2.00000 2.00000 - - Jan 14 0.27110 0.31100 0.46800 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 14 0.59483 0.70517 0.99296 1.32750 1.60226 1.86021 Jan 14 0.26125 0.30313 0.45594 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Jan 17 Bid/Ask 1.68/1.72 2.34/2.38 2.86/2.90 3.25/3.29 3.51/3.55 3.88/3.92 4.22/4.26 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.34 30.44 30.69 0.00/1.71 EUR 40.3875 40.5213 41.0388 -2.57/1.06 GBP 47.9800 48.1388 48.7200 -1.95/0.86 JPY 0.3639 0.3651 0.3719 -0.48/3.75 KBank Technical Analysis Jan 17 Jan 14 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.55 30.46 30.50 30.65 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.89 82.94 82.40 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance EUR/USD 1.3335 1.3375 1.3310 1.3435 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • U.S. stocks rose for the week on reduced eurozone’ debt concerns and optimism regarding Q4 corporate earnings while Friday’s data were mixed • China raised reserve requirement ratio for the 4th time in about two months, affirming determination to fight inflation • Market focus on EU minsters’ meeting early week and shift towards the meeting between the Hu Jintao and Obama on Wednesday FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before declining to a close of 1.338. Euro was supported by positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the debt problems • USD/THB closed slightly higher due to some USD buying from importers and concerns of monetary tightening in Asia. This week, the baht may range between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar Economic News Update • Chinese President rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar would help the government in Beijing tame inflation • European finance chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting strategy with Germany easing its opposition to an expanded arsenal Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2.
    KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 shifted to the meeting between China’s Premier and the Macro and Market Outlook U.S. president. Issues, political and economic, would be on U.S. stocks ended Friday and last week higher, mainly due the table and the market is watching out for directions of to the positive prospects of corporate earnings for the the yuan. fourth quarter of last year. JP Morgan reported a record high profit. Meanwhile, investors are also optimistic that they will hear positive news regarding Eurozone’s debt US Treasuries and Thai rates problems as finance ministers meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss further solutions. The difference between 2- and 30- year Treasury yields However, caution was also exercised as China announced widened to a record as investors demanded higher on Friday a higher reserve requirement ratio for commercial compensation when buying longer-term securities on banks. The RRR was raised from 18.5% to 19.0%. This concern a strengthening U.S. economy will spur inflation. was the 4th increase in a short span of about two months th and recorded the 7 increase since 2010. Commodities The so-called yield curve steepened to 3.96 percentage including gold and industrial metals declined sharply, with points yesterday, compared with an average of 2.07 gold ending near $1,359/ounce on Friday. percentage points the past 10 years. Treasuries fell yesterday as reports showed retail sales and industrial This reinforces China’s stance against fighting inflation and production both rose in December. The Federal Reserve restoring stability to its economy. The market is expecting will buy up to $21.5 billion in Treasuries next week, further interest rate hikes this year, coupled with a stronger including inflation-indexed securities. Chinese yuan and a slower rate of growth. This morning, “Rates are headed generally higher from here as we see a the economy reported the eight month of deceleration in its slow recovery, trending higher,” said Jay Mueller, who property price index (6.4% yoy in Dec vs. 7.7% in Nov, the manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital slowest pace since November 2009). Management in Milwaukee. 7000 14 The yield on the 30-year bond rose five basis points, or 12 0.05 percentage point, to 4.53 percent, from 4.485 percent 6000 10 on Jan. 7, according to BGCantor Market Data 5000 8 6 (Source: Bloomberg) 4000 4 3000 2 0 S&P Index (% ) 2000 1400 350 -2 1000 -4 1300 300 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 1200 1100 250 Shanghai Composite (month end, left axis) China Property Price index % yoy (right axis) 1000 900 200 U.S. – Today, the financial markets are closed for a public 800 150 holiday. Last Friday, data were mixed but still offered 700 600 100 positive signs of continued recovery. Advance retail sales Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 figure in Dec was lower than market’s forecast but gained 0.6% mom nevertheless. For the whole of 2010, retails S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) sales rose by 7.0% from 2009, signaling an improvement in consumer spending. Business inventories rose less than forecast by 0.2% in Nov as sales accelerated faster than stocks. Meanwhile, capacity utilization continued to rise as Thai interest rate: IRS yields opened lower on Friday, production activities continued to pick up (76.0% in Dec). A led by the declines in front-end swap points as banks less optimistic data was the consumer sentiment index reduce long positions in the THB in the FX swap market. which fell from 74.5 at end-Dec to 72.7 in mid-Jan, due to Meanwhile, bond yields also closed 2-5bp lower on Friday. the concerns of rising energy prices and the jobless Local mutual funds continued to sell mid curve bonds and recovery. the sales were supported by continued offshore demand 120 and liquidity from local cooperatives 110 100 % Interest rate swaps 90 4.0 80 70 3.5 60 3.0 50 40 2.5 30 2.0 20 1.5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Conference Board Consumer Confidence index Consumer sentiment index (U Mich) 1.0 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y This week, large firms such as IBM, GE, BofA, Citigroup and so forth are announcing their Q4 earnings. The results are likely to help underpin market views for the medium term. Meanwhile, mid-week the attention is likely to be 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3.
    KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Thu 13-Jan-11 Wed 12-Jan-11 % Change 1.44 1.42 USD/THB 30.48 30.41 +0.23 1.40 1.38 USD/JPY 82.81 82.80 +0.01 1.36 EUR/USD 1.338 1.335 +0.19 1.34 1.32 GBP/USD 1.5869 1.5835 +0.21 1.30 1.28 USD/CHF 0.9630 0.9640 -0.10 1.26 USD/SGD 1.2873 1.2853 +0.16 1.24 1.22 USD/TWD 29.16 28.98 +0.62 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,114.6 1,112.0 +0.23 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.27 44.08 +0.43 EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before USD/IDR 9,054 9,068 -0.15 declining to a close of 1.338, little changed compared to USD/MYR 3.058 3.053 +0.16 Thursday’s close. The euro had been buoyed by investors’ positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the USD/CNY 6.591 6.604 -0.21 Source: Reuters debt problems and ECB’s Trichet’s comments on rising .FX Consensus Forecast inflation in the Eurozone (which in turn, bolstered possibility of interest rate pick up relative to the U.S. fed fund rate) Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 USD/THB 30.58 28.30 28.00 37.50 80 USD/JPY 82.94 86.00 89.00 37.00 81 EUR/USD 1.33 1.30 1.30 36.50 82 GBP/USD 1.58 1.55 1.55 36.00 83 USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 35.50 84 USD/SGD 1.29 1.27 1.25 35.00 85 USD/IDR 9,073 8,860 8,800 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan USD/MYR 3.06 3.03 2.97 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 44.42 42.80 42.00 USD/JPY continued in range trade, closing little changed USD/KRW 1,114 1,090 1,050 at 82.80. This morning, BOJ’s governor reaffirmed view of USD/TWD 29.02 29.30 28.60 the central bank that the global markets are more stable AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.96 currently and that the local economy is improving slowly. Remaining concerns lie with the European debt problems, NZD/USD 0.77 0.76 0.75 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.90 Currency Pair Targets 30.70 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.50 USD/THB 30.58 28.30 28.0 30.30 30.10 EUR/THB 40.78 40.0 37.0 29.90 JPY/THB 36.87 34.70 29.5 29.70 GBP/THB 48.45 47.40 43.7 29.50 CNY/THB 4.64 4.78 4.2 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 AUD/THB 30.19 27.4 26.0 USD/THB CHF/THB 31.68 29.6 27.7 USD/THB closed slightly higher on Friday due to some Source: KBank, Bloomberg USD buying from importers and concerns of monetary tightening in Asia. This week, we expect the baht to range KBank NEER Index between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar. Current 99.37 YTD + 6.71% The Singapore real estate stocks fell 2-4% on Friday after authorities imposed stricter rules for the property sector, vs 52 weeks ago + 6.39% including higher tax penalty for homes sold within a year of vs 1mth ago - 2.44% purchase and raising down payment to 40% for second vs 1 week ago - 0.21% mortgages. vs 1 day ago + 0.00% Meanwhile, China raised banks’ reserve requirement ratio vs long term average + 11.76% for the fourth time in two months’ period, from 18.5% to Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange 19.0%, in a further attempt to reduce liquidity and make rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation borrowing more costly in the economy. USD/CNY reference rate is set little changed at 6.5897 today vs. Friday’s 6.5896. 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4.
    KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BOT Bonds Jan 14 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.07 1.82 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.70 2.59 2.48 2.37 2.26 2.15 2.04 1.92 1.56 CB11201A 0.04 85,000 1.990/2.048 2.029420 1.36 LB11NA 3.62 3.33 3.05 2.76 2.48 2.20 1.91 1.63 1.09 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.22 3.83 3.45 3.06 2.67 2.28 1.90 1.51 0.87 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB12NA 5.35 4.72 4.09 3.46 2.83 2.21 1.58 0.95 0.07 LB133A 6.00 5.24 4.48 3.73 2.97 2.22 1.46 0.70 -0.30 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.56 5.68 4.80 3.92 3.04 2.16 1.28 0.40 -0.73 LB13OA 6.99 6.01 5.04 4.06 3.09 2.11 1.14 0.17 -1.06 LB17OA 7.09 10,000 19-Jan-11 10-Oct-17 - LB143A 7.29 6.25 5.21 4.17 3.13 2.09 1.05 0.01 -1.28 LB14NA 4.00 8,000 19-Jan-11 26-Nov-14 - LB145A 7.80 6.64 5.47 4.31 3.14 1.98 0.81 -0.35 -1.76 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 - LB145B 7.80 6.63 5.47 4.31 3.14 1.98 0.81 -0.35 -1.76 Source: ThaiBMA LB14DA 8.63 7.28 5.93 4.58 3.23 1.88 0.52 -0.83 -2.42 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB155A 9.37 7.83 6.29 4.75 3.22 1.68 0.14 -1.40 -3.18 Tenor Amt. LB157A 9.23 7.73 6.23 4.73 3.23 1.73 0.23 -1.27 -3.02 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB15DA 10.21 8.46 6.72 4.97 3.23 1.48 -0.26 -2.01 -4.00 - CB11217C 0.08 25,000 18-Jan-11 17-Feb-11 LB167A 10.90 9.02 7.15 5.27 3.40 1.52 -0.35 -2.23 -4.35 CB11421B 0.25 22,000 18-Jan-11 21-Apr-11 - LB16NA 11.45 9.45 7.44 5.44 3.44 1.44 -0.57 -2.57 -4.82 CB11721A 0.50 15,000 18-Jan-11 21-Jul-11 - LB171A 11.52 9.52 7.51 5.50 3.49 1.48 -0.53 -2.53 -4.79 LB175A 12.07 9.93 7.80 5.66 3.52 1.39 -0.75 -2.89 -5.27 BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 25-Jan-11 18-Nov-13 - LB183A 13.17 10.77 8.37 5.98 3.58 1.19 -1.21 -3.60 -6.24 CB11224C 0.08 25,000 25-Jan-11 24-Feb-11 - LB183B 12.87 10.55 8.23 5.90 3.58 1.26 -1.06 -3.38 -5.95 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 25-Jan-11 28-Apr-11 - LB191A 13.88 11.32 8.76 6.20 3.64 1.08 -1.47 -4.03 -6.83 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 25-Jan-11 28-Jul-11 - LB196A 14.81 12.01 9.22 6.42 3.63 0.84 -1.96 -4.75 -7.79 Source: ThaiBMA LB198A 14.37 11.70 9.03 6.36 3.69 1.02 -1.65 -4.31 -7.23 LB19DA 14.95 12.16 9.36 6.57 3.77 0.98 -1.81 -4.60 -7.64 LB213A 16.08 13.02 9.96 6.90 3.84 0.79 -2.27 -5.32 -8.62 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB214A 15.95 12.93 9.91 6.89 3.87 0.85 -2.16 -5.18 -8.44 cash balance. LB22NA 18.02 14.50 10.98 7.46 3.95 0.43 -3.08 -6.59 -10.35 LB233A 18.08 14.56 11.03 7.50 3.98 0.46 -3.06 -6.58 -10.34 LB236A 19.53 15.65 11.76 7.88 3.99 0.11 -3.76 -7.64 -11.76 LB244A 19.67 15.76 11.85 7.95 4.05 0.15 -3.75 -7.65 -11.79 LB24DA 20.28 16.22 12.17 8.12 4.07 0.02 -4.02 -8.07 -12.36 LB267A 20.82 16.65 12.48 8.32 4.16 0.00 -4.16 -8.32 -12.72 LB283A 22.08 17.60 13.13 8.66 4.19 -0.27 -4.73 -9.19 -13.90 LB296A 23.79 18.90 14.00 9.10 4.21 -0.67 -5.56 -10.44 -15.57 LB383A 28.07 22.11 16.17 10.22 4.28 -1.65 -7.58 -13.50 -19.67 LB396A 29.40 23.12 16.84 10.58 4.31 -1.94 -8.19 -14.44 -20.93 Average 12.96 10.59 8.21 5.84 3.47 1.10 -1.27 -3.64 -6.26 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5.
    KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Economic News Update EU Begins Talks on Rescue Revamp as Germany Signals Flexibility: European finance Inflation Won’t Drive Yuan Appreciation, chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting strategy with Germany easing its opposition to an China’s Hu Tells Papers: Chinese President Hu expanded arsenal and Portugal insisting it will get by Jintao rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to without an aid package. appreciate against the dollar would help the government in Beijing tame inflation. Germany, the leading power in the 17-nation euro region, is eyeing a March deadline for bolstering the 440 billion- Hu, who will meet President Barack Obama in Washington euro ($589 billion) rescue fund, drawing up a permanent this week, made the comments in responses to written aid facility and rewriting the bloc’s budget-deficit rules. questions from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, the newspapers reported on their websites. A rising euro and successful bond auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy offered a respite last week from market The Chinese president said his government is fighting pressure for steps that go beyond the emergency aid inflation with a package of policies, including interest rate program and the European Central Bank’s unprecedented increases, and that rising prices can “hardly be the main bond purchases. factor in determining the exchange rate policy,” according to a transcript of the answers. He said the increase in the “European leaders need their backs to the wall in order to cost of living is “on the whole moderate and controllable,” complete their monetary union,” Barry Eichengreen, an according to the transcript. economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley, said on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Prices are climbing faster in China than in the U.S., making Midday” with Tom Keene. “I’m still convinced that’s what Chinese goods less competitive, Treasury Secretary they’re about to do.” Timothy F. Geithner said last week. Speaking in Washington on Jan. 12, he said that, while the yuan was Germany endorsed the need for a “comprehensive” still “substantially undervalued,” the “fundamental forces approach to stemming the debt contagion amid concern that are pushing Chinese productivity growth and are that Greece and Ireland, recipients of 178 billion euros in pushing inflation higher will bring about the necessary European and International Monetary Fund loans last year, adjustment in exchange rates.” will struggle to nurse their economies back to health. U.S. lawmakers argue that an undervalued yuan hurts U.S. Still, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble manufacturers and widens the U.S. trade deficit by resisted an appeal by the European Commission, the bloc’s artificially holding down the price of exported Chinese central regulator, for an upgraded anti-crisis toolbox to be goods. unveiled as soon as a Feb. 4 summit of national leaders. While “there are some differences and sensitive issues” “We’re working on a comprehensive package so that we between the two countries, Hu said, “we both stand to gain don’t find ourselves in a situation every few months in from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from which we have to start discussions all over again,” confrontation.” Schaeuble said on Jan. 13. “A fundamental decision is to be taken in March.” The current international currency system, with the dollar’s primacy in as a reserve currency and in trade is “the Euro-area finance ministers meet at 5 p.m. today in product of the past,” Hu also told the newspapers. Brussels. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman, and European Union Economic and He pointed to China’s effort to expand the role of the yuan Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn will brief the press in in cross-border trading and investment, while late evening. acknowledging it “will be a fairly long process” to make it a fully fledged international currency. Europe’s political sands are shifting even as Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates says the country is beating In an allusion to the Federal Reserve’s policy of buying deficit-cutting targets and doesn’t need a rescue. The ECB $600 billion of Treasuries to stimulate the economy, Hu told indicated that its focus may move from maintaining interest the newspapers that U.S. monetary policy has a “major” rates at a record-low 1 percent to combating inflation, impact on global liquidity and on capital flows. which reached a two-year high of 2.2 percent in December. (Source: Bloomberg) Hu pledged to “continue to improve laws and regulations concerning foreign investment,” and offer “a stable and transparent legal and policy environment.” He said U.S. companies have a level playing field in his country and their “innovation, production and business operations in China enjoy the same treatment as Chinese enterprises.” Market Strategists: (Source: Bloomberg) Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6.
    KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales Ex Auto NOV 5.80% 5.40% 5.30% 5.60% 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales (YoY) NOV -2.40% -2.40% -2.80% -2.60% 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales (MoM) sa NOV 0.90% 0.60% 0.90% 1.30% 01/14/2011 12:40 PH M3 Money Supply (YoY) NOV -- 7.50% 7.70% -- 01/14/2011 12:45 PH Bank Lending Net of RRPs (YoY) NOV -- 9.00% 8.40% -- 01/14/2011 12:45 PH Bank Lending (YoY) NOV -- 10.30% 9.10% -- 01/14/2011 13:30 IN Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% DEC 8.40% 8.43% 7.48% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) DEC F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) DEC F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 EC EU 25 New Car Registrations DEC -- -3.20% -7.10% -- 01/14/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Jan-07 -- $17.7B $19.6B -- 01/14/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Jan-07 -- $172.4B $172.1B -- 01/14/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) NOV -- -3382M -2007M -2009M 01/14/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance Eu (Euros) NOV -- -1438M -1004M -1006M 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) DEC 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% -- 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) DEC 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) DEC 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 1.90% 01/14/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa NOV 1.7B -1.9B 3.6B 3.5B 01/14/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance NOV 3.3B -0.4B 5.2B 4.7B 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) DEC F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) DEC F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) DEC F 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) DEC F 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index (MoM) DEC 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) DEC 1.30% 1.50% 1.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) DEC 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Core Index SA DEC 222.2 222.187 221.982 -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index NSA DEC 219.1 219.179 218.803 -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Advance Retail Sales DEC 0.80% 0.60% 0.80% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos DEC 0.70% 0.50% 1.20% 1.00% 01/14/2011 20:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas DEC 0.30% 0.40% 0.80% 0.60% 01/14/2011 21:15 US Industrial Production DEC 0.50% 0.80% 0.40% 0.30% 01/14/2011 21:15 US Capacity Utilization DEC 75.60% 76.00% 75.20% 75.40% 01/14/2011 21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JAN P 75.5 72.7 74.5 -- 01/14/2011 22:00 US Business Inventories NOV 0.70% 0.20% 0.70% 0.80% 01/17/2011 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation YoY% DEC -- 3.80% 3.90% -- 01/17/2011 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation MoM% DEC -- 0.20% 0.40% -- 01/17/2011 07:00 CH China Property Prices DEC 7 6.4 7.7 -- 01/17/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) JAN -- 0.30% -3.00% -- 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales Ex Auto NOV 5.80% 5.40% 5.30% 5.60% Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.