The document provides an analysis of financial markets and economic indicators from February 7, 2011. It notes that US job growth in January disappointed expectations, though the unemployment rate fell. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against other majors after the ECB signaled no interest rate hikes and the falling US unemployment rate. Thai markets were mixed with light trading volumes. Upcoming US economic data is expected to provide further signals about the jobs market and economic recovery. Bond yields remained near nine-month highs as the US prepared large debt sales that week.
The document provides a summary of Thai and US stock market performance, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates from January 14th. It also includes brief commentary on recent macroeconomic and market developments. Key points include US stocks ending the week higher supported by positive corporate earnings prospects, China raising bank reserve requirements again to fight inflation, and the Euro rising against the US dollar on hopes of further EU measures to address debt problems.
The document provides a daily market update and analysis for Thailand and other global markets. It discusses the slight rise in gold prices and decline in stock markets due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis. Thai bond yields fell slightly and the Bank of Thailand governor signaled readiness to cut rates further if needed to support the economy after recent floods. The US dollar rose against other currencies as investors sought safe havens.
The document provides an analysis of financial markets and economic indicators from February 7, 2011. It notes that US job growth in January disappointed expectations, though the unemployment rate fell. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against other majors after the ECB signaled no interest rate hikes and the falling US unemployment rate. Thai markets were mixed with light trading volumes. Upcoming US economic data is expected to provide further signals about the jobs market and economic recovery. Bond yields remained near nine-month highs as the US prepared large debt sales that week.
The document provides a summary of Thai and US stock market performance, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates from January 14th. It also includes brief commentary on recent macroeconomic and market developments. Key points include US stocks ending the week higher supported by positive corporate earnings prospects, China raising bank reserve requirements again to fight inflation, and the Euro rising against the US dollar on hopes of further EU measures to address debt problems.
The document provides a daily market update and analysis for Thailand and other global markets. It discusses the slight rise in gold prices and decline in stock markets due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis. Thai bond yields fell slightly and the Bank of Thailand governor signaled readiness to cut rates further if needed to support the economy after recent floods. The US dollar rose against other currencies as investors sought safe havens.
- Global stocks rose on positive US earnings and promises from European ministers to make the financial aid fund more flexible.
- Thai exports grew 18.8% in December, slowing from Q4's 20.8% rate, while imports rose 11.5%. The trade balance increased to $1.295 billion.
- The Euro rebounded against the dollar after positive reports on Eurozone economies, while the pound gained on higher inflation expectations. The dollar was lower against other currencies.
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Fx Dealing Room
Global markets are experiencing renewed volatility due to concerns about the future of the eurozone and slowing economic growth. Investors have sold risky assets like stocks and bought safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, U.S. treasuries and German bunds. The U.S. dollar has strengthened about 8% against other major currencies over the past year. Asian currencies have also weakened against the dollar, with the Thai baht declining about 2%.
1) A parliamentary election in Greece failed to form a new government, increasing the risk of Greece defaulting on its debt obligations or leaving the eurozone.
2) If Greece stops implementing austerity measures required for its bailouts, it will have no choice but to default, as it will have no incoming or outgoing funds. This will be a showdown between Greece's new leader and European creditors.
3) During the period of uncertainty until the next election, volatility in currency markets like the USD/THB will likely rise. However, the eurozone will ultimately take steps to keep Greece in the eurozone and inject more liquidity, reducing volatility once a solution is reached.
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways channel tracking EUR and gold. The EUR/USD was rangebound between 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. The THB interest rate swap rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute, natural gas. Rubber rebounded in Q1 but
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways trend influenced by EUR and gold movements. The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range of 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. THB interest rate swaps rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe and comments from Thailand's central bank. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute,
1) Portugal's debt problems stem from rigid product and labor market regulations that have led to declining productivity and competitiveness.
2) While political risks are lower than other troubled European countries, more time is needed to restore Portugal's economy as significant reforms have been implemented.
3) The IMF assesses that existing financial assistance for Portugal is adequate, but risks remain and additional funds from Europe may be needed, though funds are available.
- The Federal Reserve decided to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25%, as it has since December 2008, and expects to maintain this accommodative stance through late 2014.
- While the economy has been expanding moderately and unemployment has declined, the Fed judges that conditions still warrant exceptionally low interest rates.
- Inflation has picked up due to higher oil and gas prices but core inflation remains stable, and the Fed expects inflation to remain at or below its target in the medium term.
- The Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust the size and composition of holdings as needed.
- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
Thailand has been placed on FATF's watch list due to a lack of progress in fighting money laundering and terrorism financing. FATF noted that Thailand has not fully implemented its action plan to address deficiencies, including adequately criminalizing terrorist financing and strengthening anti-money laundering supervision. Being placed on the watch list means fund transfers involving Thailand will face higher scrutiny and could lead to economic sanctions if issues are not addressed. As FATF members account for 83% of the global economy, sanctions would significantly impact Thailand. Thai authorities must now comply with FATF's recommendations to avoid further consequences.
§ Thai GDP dropped 9.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2011 due to declines in domestic and external demand from severe flooding, much less than forecasts.
§ The floods resulted in decreases in private consumption, government spending, investment and exports while imports also dropped.
§ For 2011, Thai GDP growth was only 0.1%, far below previous forecasts, due to the flooding impact.
§ NESDB expects Thai GDP growth to recover to 5.5-6.5% in 2012 as investment increases, though exports growth was forecast lower, and inflation is projected at 3.5-4.0%.
The document provides a market movement update for February 2012, summarizing trends in currency exchange rates and commodity prices over various time periods. It notes that the USD/THB spot rate has fallen over 22% since 2007 but only 7% since 2011. Other currency pairs and commodity prices such as oil, gold, and copper are also discussed. The document concludes by highlighting opportunities for cheap baht funding through currency swaps and recommending options hedging strategies.
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
This document provides an economic update on Thailand with data from November and December 2011. It discusses declines in the SET index, farm income, manufacturing production, private consumption, investment, exports and imports due to the European debt crisis and flooding in Thailand. Headline inflation declined to 3.53% in December as food and transportation prices fell with improved flooding conditions. Government bond yields rebounded at the end of December on news of large planned bond issuances in the coming quarters.
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Fx Dealing Room
The Thai economy contracted sharply in November 2011 due to the severe flooding which impacted all economic sectors. Key economic indicators such as manufacturing production, exports, private consumption, and investment all declined significantly from the prior month and year. The Thai baht also weakened substantially against the US dollar in November amid the slowing global economy and flooding impacts on Thailand.
- Exports and imports in Thailand fell in November, with exports down 12.4% year-over-year and imports down 2.4%, leading to a larger trade deficit of $1.373 billion.
- The declines were due to ongoing effects of severe flooding during the quarter, which disrupted manufacturing production and supply chains. Exports of industrial goods and vehicles fell sharply.
- Weak exports will likely warrant a more dismal economic outlook, leading the Bank of Thailand to consider further interest rate cuts to support recovery. The document forecasts USD/THB volatility in the first half of 2012, with a target rate of 29.50 by year-end.
5. KBank Market Watch 8 กุมภาพันธ 2554
Credit Default Swaps (Unit : basis points above Libor)
Asia & Australia Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Japan 76 76 84 75 54 69 88
People's Republic of China 77 77 79 74 55 80 89
Republic of Korea 97 97 103 98 77 102 122
Kingdom of Thailand 115 115 117 103 88 109 123
Republic of Indonesia 155 155 162 133 127 151 217
Federation of Malaysia 80 80 82 77 67 91 118
Republic of the Philippines 134 134 142 128 125 144 210
Republic of Kazakhstan 160 160 174 174 167 190 240
Commonwealth of Australia 54 54 56 53 39 45 65
Europe Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Republic of Austria 83 83 90 99 74 78 101
Kingdom of Belgium 155 155 173 247 136 110 77
Republic of Bulgaria 248 248 261 258 219 260 278
Republic of Finland 36 36 38 34 28 28 36
French Republic 88 88 99 102 71 67 66
Hellenic Republic (Greece) 811 811 869 1,056 874 780 421
Republic of Ireland 560 560 596 623 597 223 173
Italian Republic 165 165 180 254 197 142 158
Kingdom of the Netherlands 52 52 59 61 47 43 44
Portuguese Republic 405 405 433 533 457 235 240
Russian Federation 145 145 153 147 136 154 214
Kingdom of Spain 223 223 249 352 265 193 174
Kingdom of Sweden 34 34 34 32 30 37 53
Republic of Turkey 160 160 165 148 125 157 216
Federal Republic of Germany 54 54 59 58 36 41 47
Source: Bloomberg
หมายเหตุ : Credit default swaps หรือตราสารอนุพันธประกันความเสี่ยง สําหรับการออกพันธบัตรรัฐบาลหรือ การออกหุนกู โดยจะคิด
อัตราดอกเบี้ยในระดับที่สูงกวาอัตรากูยืมระหวางธนาคาร (LIBOR) เพื่อใหครอบคลุมความเสี่ยงดานความนาเชื่อถือหรือการผิดนัดชําระหนี้
ในอนาคต
วารุณี สิทธิถาวร
ผูชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
โทรศัพท: 02 470 1031
E-mail: warunee.si@kasikornbank.com
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
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ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
5
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซ้ือหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้
6. KBank Market Watch 8 กุมภาพันธ 2554
G7 Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior reading Revision
02/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) JAN -0.30% 0.80% -1.30% -1.10%
02/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year JAN -3.00% -2.40% -1.60% --
02/04/2011 15:57 UK New Car Registrations (YoY) JAN -- -11.50% -18.00% --
02/04/2011 16:00 IT Istat Releases the New Consumer Prices' Apr-23
Basket and Methodology
02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) JAN P 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% --
02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) JAN P 2.00% 2.10% 1.90% --
02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) JAN P -1.30% -1.20% 0.40% --
02/04/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) JAN P 2.20% 2.40% 2.10% --
02/04/2011 19:00 CA Unemployment Rate JAN 7.60% 7.80% 7.60% --
02/04/2011 19:00 CA Net Change in Employment JAN 15.0K 69.2K 22.0K --
02/04/2011 19:00 CA Full Time Employment Change JAN -- 31.1 38 40.5
02/04/2011 19:00 CA Part Time Employment Change JAN -- 38 -16.1 -9.9
02/04/2011 19:00 CA Participation Rate JAN 67 67 66.9 66.7
02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JAN 146K 36K 103K 121K
02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Private Payrolls JAN 145K 50K 113K 139K
02/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls JAN 10K 49K 10K 14K
02/04/2011 20:30 US Unemployment Rate JAN 9.50% 9.00% 9.40% --
02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp JAN 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% --
02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp JAN 1.70% 1.90% 1.80% 1.70%
02/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees JAN 34.3 34.2 34.3 --
02/04/2011 22:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index JAN 53.2 41.4 50 --
02/07/2011 06:50 JN Official Reserve Assets JAN -- $1093.0B $1096.2B --
02/07/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI DEC P 103.1 103.1 102.4 --
02/07/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI DEC P 101.4 101.4 100.6 --
02/07/2011 16:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence FEB 14 16.7 10.6 --
02/07/2011 18:00 GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) DEC 21.30% 19.70% 20.60% --
02/07/2011 18:00 GE Factory Orders MoM (sa) DEC -1.50% -3.40% 5.20% --
02/07/2011 20:30 CA Building Permits MoM DEC 2.50% 2.40% -11.20% -10.50%
02/08/2011 03:00 US Consumer Credit DEC $2.400B $6.099B $1.346B $2.000B
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY JAN 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Japan Money Stock M3 YoY JAN 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending Banks Adjust YoY JAN -- -1.60% -1.80% --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY JAN -2.10% -1.90% -2.10% --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) JAN -1.80% -1.80% -1.90% -2.00%
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Current Account Total DEC ¥1130.0B ¥1195.3B ¥926.2B --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Current Account Total DEC ¥1530.8B ¥1555.9B ¥1145.1B --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Current Account Balance YOY% DEC 24.20% 30.50% -15.70% --
02/08/2011 06:50 JN Trade Balance - BOP Basis DEC ¥779.7B ¥768.8B ¥259.7B --
02/08/2011 07:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor Apr-23
02/08/2011 07:01 UK RICS House Price Balance JAN -38% -31% -39% --
02/08/2011 11:30 JN Bankruptcies (YoY) JAN -- -- -3.00% --
02/08/2011 12:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current JAN 45.5 -- 45.1 --
02/08/2011 12:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook JAN -- -- 43.9 --
02/08/2011 14:30 FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment JAN 108 -- 108 --
02/08/2011 14:45 FR Central Govt. Balance (Euros) DEC -- -- -140.7B --
02/08/2011 14:45 FR Trade Balance (Euros) DEC -4.2B -- -3.9B --
02/08/2011 18:00 GE Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) DEC 11.50% -- 11.10% --
02/08/2011 18:00 GE Industrial Production MoM (sa) DEC 0.20% -- -0.70% --
02/08/2011 19:30 US NFIB Small Business Optimism JAN 94 -- 92.6 --
02/08/2011 20:15 CA Housing Starts JAN 173.5K -- 171.5K 168.3K
Source: Bloomberg
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
ั
ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
6
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซ้ือหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้