The document provides a daily market update and analysis for Thailand and other global markets. It discusses the slight rise in gold prices and decline in stock markets due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis. Thai bond yields fell slightly and the Bank of Thailand governor signaled readiness to cut rates further if needed to support the economy after recent floods. The US dollar rose against other currencies as investors sought safe havens.
The document provides a summary of Thai and US stock market performance, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates from January 14th. It also includes brief commentary on recent macroeconomic and market developments. Key points include US stocks ending the week higher supported by positive corporate earnings prospects, China raising bank reserve requirements again to fight inflation, and the Euro rising against the US dollar on hopes of further EU measures to address debt problems.
The document provides an analysis of financial markets and economic indicators from February 7, 2011. It notes that US job growth in January disappointed expectations, though the unemployment rate fell. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against other majors after the ECB signaled no interest rate hikes and the falling US unemployment rate. Thai markets were mixed with light trading volumes. Upcoming US economic data is expected to provide further signals about the jobs market and economic recovery. Bond yields remained near nine-month highs as the US prepared large debt sales that week.
The document provides a daily market update and analysis for Thailand and other global markets. It discusses the slight rise in gold prices and decline in stock markets due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis. Thai bond yields fell slightly and the Bank of Thailand governor signaled readiness to cut rates further if needed to support the economy after recent floods. The US dollar rose against other currencies as investors sought safe havens.
The document provides a summary of Thai and US stock market performance, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates from January 14th. It also includes brief commentary on recent macroeconomic and market developments. Key points include US stocks ending the week higher supported by positive corporate earnings prospects, China raising bank reserve requirements again to fight inflation, and the Euro rising against the US dollar on hopes of further EU measures to address debt problems.
The document provides an analysis of financial markets and economic indicators from February 7, 2011. It notes that US job growth in January disappointed expectations, though the unemployment rate fell. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against other majors after the ECB signaled no interest rate hikes and the falling US unemployment rate. Thai markets were mixed with light trading volumes. Upcoming US economic data is expected to provide further signals about the jobs market and economic recovery. Bond yields remained near nine-month highs as the US prepared large debt sales that week.
- Global stocks rose on positive US earnings and promises from European ministers to make the financial aid fund more flexible.
- Thai exports grew 18.8% in December, slowing from Q4's 20.8% rate, while imports rose 11.5%. The trade balance increased to $1.295 billion.
- The Euro rebounded against the dollar after positive reports on Eurozone economies, while the pound gained on higher inflation expectations. The dollar was lower against other currencies.
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Fx Dealing Room
Global markets are experiencing renewed volatility due to concerns about the future of the eurozone and slowing economic growth. Investors have sold risky assets like stocks and bought safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, U.S. treasuries and German bunds. The U.S. dollar has strengthened about 8% against other major currencies over the past year. Asian currencies have also weakened against the dollar, with the Thai baht declining about 2%.
1) A parliamentary election in Greece failed to form a new government, increasing the risk of Greece defaulting on its debt obligations or leaving the eurozone.
2) If Greece stops implementing austerity measures required for its bailouts, it will have no choice but to default, as it will have no incoming or outgoing funds. This will be a showdown between Greece's new leader and European creditors.
3) During the period of uncertainty until the next election, volatility in currency markets like the USD/THB will likely rise. However, the eurozone will ultimately take steps to keep Greece in the eurozone and inject more liquidity, reducing volatility once a solution is reached.
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways channel tracking EUR and gold. The EUR/USD was rangebound between 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. The THB interest rate swap rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute, natural gas. Rubber rebounded in Q1 but
The document provides a summary of movements in various financial markets and commodities over the past quarter. It notes that the USD/THB remained in a sideways trend influenced by EUR and gold movements. The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range of 1.3000-1.3400 with focus on Spain. The USDJPY strengthened from 84 to 81 after the BoJ signaled no further easing but the market expects more bond purchases. THB interest rate swaps rose in Q1 on improved sentiment in Europe and comments from Thailand's central bank. NYMEX crude oil remained in an uptrend channel between $100-110. Coal prices continued to drop due to oversupply of the cheaper substitute,
1) Portugal's debt problems stem from rigid product and labor market regulations that have led to declining productivity and competitiveness.
2) While political risks are lower than other troubled European countries, more time is needed to restore Portugal's economy as significant reforms have been implemented.
3) The IMF assesses that existing financial assistance for Portugal is adequate, but risks remain and additional funds from Europe may be needed, though funds are available.
- The Federal Reserve decided to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25%, as it has since December 2008, and expects to maintain this accommodative stance through late 2014.
- While the economy has been expanding moderately and unemployment has declined, the Fed judges that conditions still warrant exceptionally low interest rates.
- Inflation has picked up due to higher oil and gas prices but core inflation remains stable, and the Fed expects inflation to remain at or below its target in the medium term.
- The Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust the size and composition of holdings as needed.
- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
Thailand has been placed on FATF's watch list due to a lack of progress in fighting money laundering and terrorism financing. FATF noted that Thailand has not fully implemented its action plan to address deficiencies, including adequately criminalizing terrorist financing and strengthening anti-money laundering supervision. Being placed on the watch list means fund transfers involving Thailand will face higher scrutiny and could lead to economic sanctions if issues are not addressed. As FATF members account for 83% of the global economy, sanctions would significantly impact Thailand. Thai authorities must now comply with FATF's recommendations to avoid further consequences.
§ Thai GDP dropped 9.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2011 due to declines in domestic and external demand from severe flooding, much less than forecasts.
§ The floods resulted in decreases in private consumption, government spending, investment and exports while imports also dropped.
§ For 2011, Thai GDP growth was only 0.1%, far below previous forecasts, due to the flooding impact.
§ NESDB expects Thai GDP growth to recover to 5.5-6.5% in 2012 as investment increases, though exports growth was forecast lower, and inflation is projected at 3.5-4.0%.
The document provides a market movement update for February 2012, summarizing trends in currency exchange rates and commodity prices over various time periods. It notes that the USD/THB spot rate has fallen over 22% since 2007 but only 7% since 2011. Other currency pairs and commodity prices such as oil, gold, and copper are also discussed. The document concludes by highlighting opportunities for cheap baht funding through currency swaps and recommending options hedging strategies.
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
The document provides a summary and analysis of economic conditions in Thailand and other regions. It discusses:
1) Continued concerns about the eurozone debt crisis fueling demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and depressing risk assets.
2) While US money supply growth looks better than the EU or Japan, high unemployment will likely lead the Fed to resume quantitative easing in mid-2012.
3) Local authorities in Thailand face challenges from losses at the Fiscal Debt Fund and risks of bond yield curve steepening given planned large bond issuances.
4) The analysis predicts the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate again in January and forecasts Thailand's economy could experience a V-shaped
This document provides an economic update on Thailand with data from November and December 2011. It discusses declines in the SET index, farm income, manufacturing production, private consumption, investment, exports and imports due to the European debt crisis and flooding in Thailand. Headline inflation declined to 3.53% in December as food and transportation prices fell with improved flooding conditions. Government bond yields rebounded at the end of December on news of large planned bond issuances in the coming quarters.
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Fx Dealing Room
The Thai economy contracted sharply in November 2011 due to the severe flooding which impacted all economic sectors. Key economic indicators such as manufacturing production, exports, private consumption, and investment all declined significantly from the prior month and year. The Thai baht also weakened substantially against the US dollar in November amid the slowing global economy and flooding impacts on Thailand.
- Exports and imports in Thailand fell in November, with exports down 12.4% year-over-year and imports down 2.4%, leading to a larger trade deficit of $1.373 billion.
- The declines were due to ongoing effects of severe flooding during the quarter, which disrupted manufacturing production and supply chains. Exports of industrial goods and vehicles fell sharply.
- Weak exports will likely warrant a more dismal economic outlook, leading the Bank of Thailand to consider further interest rate cuts to support recovery. The document forecasts USD/THB volatility in the first half of 2012, with a target rate of 29.50 by year-end.
5. KBank Market Watch 20 ธันวาคม 2553
Credit Default Swaps (Unit : basis points above Libor)
Asia & Australia Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Japan 70 N/A 71 56 65 89 71
People's Republic of China 68 68 72 58 75 79 73
Republic of Korea 93 93 94 86 106 109 87
Kingdom of Thailand 99 99 97 100 107 117 96
Republic of Indonesia 130 130 128 137 148 162 197
Federation of Malaysia 73 N/A 75 74 84 89 89
Republic of the Philippines 129 129 124 132 146 156 173
Republic of Kazakhstan 180 180 185 179 183 199 229
Commonwealth of Australia 51 51 53 46 48 52 37
Europe Current 1 day ago 5 days ago 1mth ago 3mth ago 6mth ago 1yr ago
Republic of Austria 91 91 92 72 88 77 86
Kingdom of Belgium 212 212 207 141 137 124 54
Republic of Bulgaria 245 245 244 228 289 313 230
Republic of Finland 33 33 32 28 30 32 28
French Republic 103 103 105 82 79 78 29
Hellenic Republic (Greece) 970 970 944 1,018 881 838 277
Republic of Ireland 572 572 551 523 429 243 160
Italian Republic 204 204 209 191 206 165 108
Kingdom of the Netherlands 60 60 59 48 47 46 31
Portuguese Republic 461 461 468 453 360 281 84
Russian Federation 145 145 145 144 164 174 191
Kingdom of Spain 332 332 335 282 235 221 109
Kingdom of Sweden 33 33 33 30 36 38 54
Republic of Turkey 135 135 130 133 164 176 194
Federal Republic of Germany 56 56 53 40 41 38 25
Source: Bloomberg
หมายเหตุ : Credit default swaps หรือตราสารอนุพันธประกันความเสี่ยง สําหรับการออกพันธบัตรรัฐบาลหรือ การออกหุนกู โดยจะคิด
อัตราดอกเบี้ยในระดับที่สูงกวาอัตรากูยืมระหวางธนาคาร (LIBOR) เพื่อใหครอบคลุมความเสี่ยงดานความนาเชื่อถือหรือการผิดนัดชําระหนี้
ในอนาคต
วารุณี สิทธิถาวร
ผูชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
โทรศัพท: 02 470 1031
E-mail: warunee.si@kasikornbank.com
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบัติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
5
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซื้อหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้
6. KBank Market Watch 20 ธันวาคม 2553
G7 Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior reading Revision
12/16/2010 16:00 EC PMI Manufacturing DEC A 55.2 56.8 55.3 --
12/16/2010 16:00 EC PMI Services DEC A 55.2 53.7 55.4 --
12/16/2010 16:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) NOV F -0.10% 0.00% -0.10% --
12/16/2010 16:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) NOV F 1.80% 1.90% 1.80% --
12/16/2010 16:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM) NOV 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
12/16/2010 16:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY) NOV 1.40% 1.80% 1.20% 1.70%
12/16/2010 16:30 UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) NOV 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70%
12/16/2010 16:30 UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) NOV 0.70% 1.10% -0.10% 0.30%
12/16/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) NOV 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% --
12/16/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) NOV 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% --
12/16/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) NOV F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% --
12/16/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Labour Costs (YoY) 3Q 1.50% 0.80% 1.60% --
12/16/2010 20:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions OCT 10.000B 9.507B 12.253B 13.362B
12/16/2010 20:30 US Housing Starts NOV 550K 555K 519K 534K
12/16/2010 20:30 US Housing Starts MOM% NOV 6.00% 3.90% -11.70% -11.10%
12/16/2010 20:30 US Building Permits NOV 560K 530K 550K 552K
12/16/2010 20:30 US Building Permits MOM% NOV 1.50% -4.00% 0.50% 0.90%
12/16/2010 20:30 US Current Account Balance 3Q -$126.0B -$127.2B -$123.3B -$123.2B
12/16/2010 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-11 425K 420K 421K 423K
12/16/2010 20:30 US Continuing Claims Dec-04 4115K 4135K 4086K 4113K
12/16/2010 22:00 US Philadelphia Fed. DEC 15 24.3 22.5 --
12/17/2010 07:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence NOV 52 45 52 --
12/17/2010 14:45 FR Own-Company Production Outlook DEC -- 8 11 6
12/17/2010 14:45 FR Production Outlook Indicator DEC -- 10 8 --
12/17/2010 14:45 FR Business Confidence Indicator DEC 102 103 100 --
12/17/2010 16:00 GE IFO - Business Climate DEC 109 109.9 109.3 --
12/17/2010 16:00 GE IFO - Current Assessment DEC 112.5 112.9 112.3 --
12/17/2010 16:00 GE IFO - Expectations DEC 106 106.9 106.3 --
12/17/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) OCT 0.60% 0.00% -1.20% --
12/17/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) OCT 16.00% 12.40% 17.90% --
12/17/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) OCT -- 1.00% -0.30% --
12/17/2010 16:00 IT Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) OCT -- 13.30% 10.80% 10.90%
12/17/2010 17:00 EC Construction Output SA MoM OCT -- 0.00% -2.10% -1.60%
12/17/2010 17:00 EC Construction Output WDA YoY OCT -- -6.80% -8.10% -7.70%
12/17/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa OCT -- 3.6B 2.4B 2.0B
12/17/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance OCT 2.5B 5.2B 2.9B 2.6B
12/17/2010 17:14 IT Current Account (mlns euro) OCT -- -2580M -8123M --
12/17/2010 22:00 US Leading Indicators NOV 1.10% 1.10% 0.50% 0.40%
12/20/2010 11:00 JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Dec-19
12/20/2010 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI OCT F -- -- 100.7 --
12/20/2010 12:00 JN Leading Index CI OCT F -- -- 97.2 --
12/20/2010 12:30 JN Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) NOV -- -- 0.60% --
12/20/2010 12:30 JN Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) NOV -- -- 2.70% --
12/20/2010 14:00 GE Producer Prices (MoM) NOV 0.30% -- 0.40% --
12/20/2010 14:00 GE Producer Prices (YoY) NOV 4.50% -- 4.30% --
12/20/2010 14:00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY NOV -- -- -5.90% --
12/20/2010 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa OCT -- -- -9.2B --
12/20/2010 16:00 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA OCT -- -- -13.1B --
12/20/2010 20:30 CA Wholesale Sales MoM OCT 0.80% -- 0.40% --
12/20/2010 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index NOV 0 -- -0.28 --
Source: Bloomberg
เอกสารฉบับนี้จัดทําขึ้นเพื่อวัตถุประสงคสําหรับใชเปนขอมูลในการปฏิบัติงานภายในบมจ.ธนาคารกสิกรไทยและสําหรับลูกคาที่ธนาคารกําหนดเทานั้น ขอมูลในเอกสารนี้จัดทําเตรียมขึ้นเพื่อจุดมุงหมายในการใหขอมูล ความเห็นและบทวิเคราะหอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงไดโดยไม
ตองแจงใหทราบลวงหนา ธนาคารแสดงความเห็นในฐานะที่เปนผูทําตลาด (Market Maker) ของตราสารทางการเงินที่มีการกลาวในเอกสารฉบับนี้ ขอมูลในเอกสารฉบับนี้เปนขอมูลที่ธนาคารเชื่อวาถูกตอง แตธนาคารมิไดรับรองความถูกตองแทจริงและความสมบูรณของ
6
ขอมูลดังกลาว เอกสารฉบับนี้มิใชการเสนอหรือชี้ชวนใหซื้อหรือขายหรือโอนตราสารใดๆ ธนาคารและ/หรือผูเขียนจะไมรับผิดชอบใดๆ ในความสูญเสียหรือเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใชขอมูลที่ระบุในเอกสารฉบับนี้