Beta ho to aisa(haftawar bayan).hindi (बेटा हो तो ऐसा)dawateislami
10 सितम्बर 2015 जुमारात को एक साथ दुन्याभर के दा’वते इस्लामी के सुन्नतों भरे इजतिमाअ में होने वाले उर्दू बयान का हिन्दी रस्मुल ख़त़ (लीपियांतर) । जिस में है ह़ज़रते सय्यिदुना इस्माईल علیہ السلام के मुख़्तसर वाक़आत और दीगर मदनी फूल नीज़ इमामे की सुन्नतों और आदाब के साथ साथ और भी बहुत कुछ ।
Beta ho to aisa(haftawar bayan).hindi (बेटा हो तो ऐसा)dawateislami
10 सितम्बर 2015 जुमारात को एक साथ दुन्याभर के दा’वते इस्लामी के सुन्नतों भरे इजतिमाअ में होने वाले उर्दू बयान का हिन्दी रस्मुल ख़त़ (लीपियांतर) । जिस में है ह़ज़रते सय्यिदुना इस्माईल علیہ السلام के मुख़्तसर वाक़आत और दीगर मदनी फूल नीज़ इमामे की सुन्नतों और आदाब के साथ साथ और भी बहुत कुछ ।
1. ปริวรรตทัศน Capital Markets Business Division
http://www.KASIKORNBANK.com
กุมภาพันธ 2555 / ป‚ที่ 16 ฉบับที่ 182
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โดย ฝ†ายงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
กอบสิทธิ์ ศิลปชัย ผูŒบริหารงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
นลิน ฉัตรโชติธรรม ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
อมรเทพ จาวะลา ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
พุฒิกุล อัครชลานนท ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน
¤ÇÒÁ«×èÍÊÑμÂÊبÃÔμ໚¹¹âºÒ·Õè´Õ·ÕèÊØ´ áμ‹¡ç໚¹¹âºÒ·ÕèäÁ‹¤‹Í¨Ð໚¹·Õè รูปที่ 1. การประมาณการทงางเศรษฐกิจของ FOMC ในเดือนมกราคม 2555
¹ÔÂÁã¹»ÃÐà·Èä·Â Í‹ҧäá紹ÒÂູ àºÍù¹à¡Œ ´ÙàËÁ×͹¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàª×Íã¹àÃ×ͧ
Õ Ñ è è Variable Central tendency Range
´Ñ§¡Å‹ÒÇ «Öè§äÁ‹à¤ÂÁÕ¨ÒÃÖ¡ã¹»ÃÐÇÑμÔÈÒÊμÃÁÒ¡‹Í¹Ç‹Ò¨ÐÁÕ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ Unit: % 2012 2013 2014 Longer run 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹ä˹·Õè´Ù¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ¢¹Ò´¹Õé Change in real GDP 2.2 to 2.7 2.8 to 3.2 3.3 to 4.0 2.3 to 2.6 2.1 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.8 2.8 to 4.3 2.2 to 3.0
ã¹áºº·´Êͺ¢Í§ SAT (¡Ò÷´Êͺ¤ÇÒÁ¶¹Ñ´·Ò§¡ÒÃàÃÕ¹) ¤íÒ·ÕÁ¤ÇÒÁ November projection 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0
è Õ
ËÁÒÂμç¡Ñ¹¢ŒÒÁ¡Ñº “opaque” (¢Ø‹¹, ·Öº) ¡ç¤×Í “transparent” (â»Ã‹§ãÊ) «Öè§ Unemployment rate 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6 5.2 to 6.0 7.8 to 8.6 7.0 to 8.2 6.3 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.0
ÊÒÁÒö¹íÒÁÒà»ÃÕºà»ÃÂä´Œ¡º»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹»˜¨¨Øº¹ ¹ÒÂູ November projection 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0
Ñ Ñ
àºÍùѹࡌ à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡´ÙÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ ã¹¢³Ð·Õè Í´Õμ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÍÕ¡ PCE inflation 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 1.3 to 2.5 1.4 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.1 2.0
·‹Ò¹Ë¹Ö§¤×Í ¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ ´Ù¨ÐàËÁÒСѺ¤íÒÇ‹Ò “¤ÅØÁà¤Ã×Í” à¹×ͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù·èÕ November projection 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0
è è Œ
μÔ´μÒÁ¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹§Ò¹¢Í§¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ã¹ª‹Ç§¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ Core PCE inflation 1.5 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 -
¨ÐμŒÍ§ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàªÕÂǪÒÞã¹´ŒÒ¹ÀÒÉÒáÅÐàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ËÃ×ÍÁÕ¤ÇÒÁ໚¹¹Ñ¡ÀÒÉÒÈÒÊμà November projection 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2 -
è
áÅйѡàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμÃÍÂً㹤¹à´ÕÂǡѹ ÍÐää×ͤÇÒÁËÁÒ¢ͧ “irrational Source: US Federal Reserve
exuberance”? ËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹ã¹Åѡɳм‹Í¹¤ÅÒ´͡àºÕÂμèÒ é í
(dovish) ËÃ×͹âºÒ·ҧ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹·ÕÁ´Í¡àºÕÂÍÂÙã¹ÃдѺÊÙ§ (hawkish) ¼Ù·ÍÂÙã¹
è Õ é ‹ Œ èÕ ‹ ÁÕ»ÃÐ⤷ÕèÇ‹Ò “㹪ÕÇÔμÁÕÊÔ觷Õèṋ¹Í¹ÍÂÙ‹ 2 àÃ×èͧ¤×Í ¤ÇÒÁμÒ áÅÐÀÒÉÕ”
ÍØμÊÒË¡ÃÃÁ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹¡‹Í¹ª‹Ç§ÇÔ¡Äμ´Í·¤ÍÁ¹‹Ò¨Ð·ÃÒºà¡ÕÂǡѺàÃ×ͧ¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ «Ö§ ¹ÒÂູ àºÍù¹à¡ŒÍÒ¨μŒÍ§¡ÒÃà¾ÔÁ¤ÇÒÁṋ¹Í¹·Õè 3 «Ö§¡ç¤Í ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕÂ
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ÁÒ¨Ò¡¤ÇÒÁàª×èÍ·Ò§·ÄɮշҧàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμ÷Õè¡íÒ˹´â´Â¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÃμ ÅÙ¤ÑÊ ÊËÃÑ°Ï? ÂØâûμŒÍ§»ÃÐʺ»˜ÞËÒàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù¡ÍÂÙ‹¡ÑºÃкº¤‹Òà§Ô¹ ?
਌ҢͧÃÒ§ÇÑÅâ¹àºÅ»‚ 2538 ¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÃμ ÅÙ¤Êä´ŒÊÌҧ·ÄÉ®Õà¡ÕÂǡѺ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´
Ñ è ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹à»š¹¸ÃÃÁ (Adverse selection) ÂѧäÁ‹ãª‹»˜ÞËÒ·Õ蹋ҡѧÇÅ
ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å (rational expectation)” «Öè§ã¹ÁØÁ¹Ö§¢Í§ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ ã¹¢³Ð¹Õé á싨Ð໚¹»˜ÞËÒã¹Í¹Ò¤μ “Adverse selection” ËÁÒ¤ÇÒÁÇ‹Ò
ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å” ¡ç¤×ͤÇÒÁÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸Ô¼Å¢Í§¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ·ҧ Í‹ҧäÃ? “adverse” ËÁÒ¶֧ äÁ‹´,Õ äÁ‹¾§»ÃÐʧ¤ áÅÐ “selection” ËÁÒ¶֧ Ö
àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ÇÔ¡Ô¾Õà´ÕÂ䴌͌ҧ¶Ö§¢ŒÍ¤ÇÒÁ´Ñ§μ‹Í仹Õé (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡ «Öè§àÁ×èÍàÍÒÁÒÃÇÁ¡Ñ¹¡ç¨ÐËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹¾Ö§»ÃÐʧ¤à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡
Rational_expectations): ¼ÙŒ«×éÍáÅмٌ¢ÒÂÁÕ¢ŒÍÁÙÅ·Õèáμ¡μ‹Ò§äÁ‹à·‹Òà·ÕÂÁ¡Ñ¹ ÍÑμÃҢͧà§Ô¹·Õèà¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ ¡Å‹ÒǤ×Í
ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕéÂÃÐÂÐÊÑé¹ (Fed fund rate) ·ÕèÍÂÙ‹ã¡ÅŒÈٹ ʋ§¼ÅãËŒÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´
If the Federal Reserve attempts to lower unemployment through (discount rate) 㹡ÒÃμÕ¤ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾÂμÒ§ æ Ŵŧ仴ŒÇ «Ö§·íÒãËŒÁŤ‹ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾÂ
‹ ‹ è Ù
expansionary monetary policy economic agents will anticipate the ã¹»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹à¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ â´Â¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹ã¹âšʋǹãËÞ‹Âѧ¼Ù¡μÔ´ÍÂÙ‹¡Ñº “ÁÙŤ‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹
effects of the change of policy and raise their expectations of future ÊØ·¸Ô (net present value)” «Ö觡ç¤×ÍÇÔ¸Õ¡ÒûÃѺ¤‹Ò¢Í§à§Ô¹·Õèä´Œã¹Í¹Ò¤μãˌ໚¹
inflation accordingly. This in turn will counteract the expansionary effect ¤‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹â´Â㪌ÍÑμÃÒ¼Åμͺ᷹·ÕèμŒÍ§¡Òà (required rate of return) ËÃ×Í
of the increased money supply. All that the government can do is ÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´ (discount rate, r) ÁÒ¤Ô´ μÃҺ㴷Õè¡ÃÐáÊà§Ô¹Ê´ (CF) ໚¹ºÇ¡
raise the inflation rate, not employment. à¡×ͺ·Ø¡Í‹ҧ¡ç¨Ð¤ØŒÁ¤‹Ò·Õè¨Ðŧ·Ø¹ «Öè§Ê‹Ç¹ÁÒ¡¡çÍÒ¨¨Ð¨ºÅ§´ŒÇ¡ÒÃà¡ç§¡íÒäÃã¹
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NPV = Σ CFi
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é é è ‹ èÕ Õ ‹ i=1 r
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1
2. ปริวรรตทัศน / กุมภาพันธ 2555
รูปที่ 2. ความสัมพันธระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และ รูปที่ 6. แขงขันกันทํา QE?
สินทรัพยสุทธิของ ICI Global Bonds ตั้งแตป 2543
ICI global bonds, net assets, USD bn
3,000
200
180 2,500
160 2
y = 0.0001x - 0.2413x + 121.68
140 2 2,000
R = 0.9338
120
100 1,500
80
60 1,000
40
20 500
0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
USD M1 money supply, bn Fed's balance sheet, USD bn ECB balance sheet, EUR bn
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
รูปที่ 3. ความสัมพันธระหวางมูลคาทรัพยสินสุทธิของ ICI EM Equity และดัชนี รูปที่ 7. สวนตางระหวางยูโร LIBOR - OIS
ตลาดหุนไทย (SET Index)
200
300 1200 180
250 1000 160
140
200 800 120
100
150 600
80
100 400 60
40
50 200
20
- 0 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
ICI EM Equity net assets, USD bn, left SET index, right Euro LIBOR-OIS (Overnight Index Swap) spread, bps
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
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รูปที่ 4. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง ¹Õ¾§ÊÙ§¢Ö¹¶Ö§à¡×ͺ 200bps áμ‹ LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations)
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งานนอกภาคการเกษตร จนถึงการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers ¢Í§ ECB ËÃ×Í·ÕèÃÙŒ¨Ñ¡¡Ñ¹ã¹¹ÒÁ QE ä´Œ·íÒãˌʋǹμ‹Ò§¹Õé䴌Ŵŧ
non-farm payrolls, k
160,000
150,000
140,000
รูปที่ 8. คาเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ แบบถวงนําหนักดวยการคา
130,000
83
120,000
81
110,000
y = 48.985x + 67749 79
100,000 2
R = 0.9057 77
90,000
75
80,000
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 73
USD M1, bn 71
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank 69
67
1-10 4-10 7-10 10-10 1-11 4-11 7-11 10-11 1-12
รูปที่ 5. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง US trade weighted dollar
งานนอกภาคการเกษตร กอนและหลังการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
non-farm payrolls, k
170,000
160,000
150,000
รูปที่ 9. DXY และ GDP ของสหรัฐฯ
140,000
130,000 US chain weighted real GDP, US bn
120,000 14000
110,000 y = 35.034x + 80035 13500
2 80.178, 13422.4
100,000 R = 0.7574 y = -50.16x + 16961
13000 2
90,000 R = 0.8347
80,000 12500
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 12000
USD M1, bn
11500
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
11000
10500
â´Â¡Å‹Í§ÊÕᴧ໚¹¢ŒÍÁÙÅÀÒÂËÅѧ¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers «Ö§ è 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
DXY, US dollar index
130
ÊÒÁÒöàª×ÍÁâ§䴌¡º·ÄɯշҧàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμ÷ÇÒ´ŒÇÂàÃ×ͧ¡®¡ÒÃÅ´¹ŒÍ¶ÍÂŧ
è Ñ èÕ ‹ è Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
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