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Prariwat feb23
- 1. ปริวรรตทัศน Capital Markets Business Division http://www.KASIKORNBANK.com กุมภาพันธ 2555 / ป‚ที่ 16 ฉบับที่ 182 ºÒ§·Õ¤ÇÒÁ«×èÍÊÑμÂÍÒ¨¨Ð໚¹¹âºÒ·Õè´Õ·ÕèÊØ´? โดย ฝ†ายงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน กอบสิทธิ์ ศิลปชัย ผูŒบริหารงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน นลิน ฉัตรโชติธรรม ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน อมรเทพ จาวะลา ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน พุฒิกุล อัครชลานนท ผูŒชํานาญการงานวิจัยเศรษฐกิจและตลาดทุน ¤ÇÒÁ«×èÍÊÑμÂÊبÃÔμ໚¹¹âºÒ·Õè´Õ·ÕèÊØ´ áμ‹¡ç໚¹¹âºÒ·ÕèäÁ‹¤‹Í¨Ð໚¹·Õè รูปที่ 1. การประมาณการทงางเศรษฐกิจของ FOMC ในเดือนมกราคม 2555 ¹ÔÂÁã¹»ÃÐà·Èä·Â Í‹ҧäá紹ÒÂູ àºÍù¹à¡Œ ´ÙàËÁ×͹¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàª×Íã¹àÃ×ͧ Õ Ñ è è Variable Central tendency Range ´Ñ§¡Å‹ÒÇ «Öè§äÁ‹à¤ÂÁÕ¨ÒÃÖ¡ã¹»ÃÐÇÑμÔÈÒÊμÃÁÒ¡‹Í¹Ç‹Ò¨ÐÁÕ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ Unit: % 2012 2013 2014 Longer run 2012 2013 2014 Longer run ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹ä˹·Õè´Ù¨ÐÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ¢¹Ò´¹Õé Change in real GDP 2.2 to 2.7 2.8 to 3.2 3.3 to 4.0 2.3 to 2.6 2.1 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.8 2.8 to 4.3 2.2 to 3.0 ã¹áºº·´Êͺ¢Í§ SAT (¡Ò÷´Êͺ¤ÇÒÁ¶¹Ñ´·Ò§¡ÒÃàÃÕ¹) ¤íÒ·ÕÁ¤ÇÒÁ November projection 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0 è Õ ËÁÒÂμç¡Ñ¹¢ŒÒÁ¡Ñº “opaque” (¢Ø‹¹, ·Öº) ¡ç¤×Í “transparent” (â»Ã‹§ãÊ) «Öè§ Unemployment rate 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6 5.2 to 6.0 7.8 to 8.6 7.0 to 8.2 6.3 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.0 ÊÒÁÒö¹íÒÁÒà»ÃÕºà»ÃÂä´Œ¡º»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ¤¹»˜¨¨Øº¹ ¹ÒÂູ November projection 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0 Ñ Ñ àºÍùѹࡌ à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡´ÙÁÕ¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊ ã¹¢³Ð·Õè Í´Õμ»Ãиҹ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÍÕ¡ PCE inflation 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 1.3 to 2.5 1.4 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.1 2.0 ·‹Ò¹Ë¹Ö§¤×Í ¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ ´Ù¨ÐàËÁÒСѺ¤íÒÇ‹Ò “¤ÅØÁà¤Ã×Í” à¹×ͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù·èÕ November projection 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0 è è Œ μÔ´μÒÁ¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹§Ò¹¢Í§¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ã¹ª‹Ç§¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ Core PCE inflation 1.5 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 - ¨ÐμŒÍ§ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàªÕÂǪÒÞã¹´ŒÒ¹ÀÒÉÒáÅÐàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ËÃ×ÍÁÕ¤ÇÒÁ໚¹¹Ñ¡ÀÒÉÒÈÒÊμà November projection 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0 - 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2 - è áÅйѡàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμÃÍÂً㹤¹à´ÕÂǡѹ ÍÐää×ͤÇÒÁËÁÒ¢ͧ “irrational Source: US Federal Reserve exuberance”? ËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹ã¹Åѡɳм‹Í¹¤ÅÒ´͡àºÕÂμèÒ é í (dovish) ËÃ×͹âºÒ·ҧ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹·ÕÁ´Í¡àºÕÂÍÂÙã¹ÃдѺÊÙ§ (hawkish) ¼Ù·ÍÂÙã¹ è Õ é ‹ Œ èÕ ‹ ÁÕ»ÃÐ⤷ÕèÇ‹Ò “㹪ÕÇÔμÁÕÊÔ觷Õèṋ¹Í¹ÍÂÙ‹ 2 àÃ×èͧ¤×Í ¤ÇÒÁμÒ áÅÐÀÒÉÕ” ÍØμÊÒË¡ÃÃÁ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹¡‹Í¹ª‹Ç§ÇÔ¡Äμ´Í·¤ÍÁ¹‹Ò¨Ð·ÃÒºà¡ÕÂǡѺàÃ×ͧ¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ «Ö§ ¹ÒÂູ àºÍù¹à¡ŒÍÒ¨μŒÍ§¡ÒÃà¾ÔÁ¤ÇÒÁṋ¹Í¹·Õè 3 «Ö§¡ç¤Í ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕ è è è Ñ è è × é ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ´Õ ¹âºÒ·ÕèμèíÒ¶Ö§»‚ 2557 «Ö觡ÒÃ㪌´Í¡àºÕé¹âºÒ·ÕèμèíÒÍҨ෋ҡѺNjҹíÒ仼١ÍÂÙ‹ á¹Ç⹌Á¢Í§¹ÒÂÍÅѹ ¡ÃÕ¹Êỹ ·Õ¨ÐÂ×¹ÍÂÙμ碌ÒÁ¡Ñº¤ÇÒÁâ»Ã‹§ãÊÍÒ¨¨Ð ¡ÑºÍÐäúҧÍ‹ҧËÃ×ÍäÁ‹? ¤‹Òà§Ô¹ºÒ·ä´Œ¶Ù¡ÅÍÂμÑÇà¹×èͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù¡¡Ñºà§Ô¹´ÍÅÅÒÃ è ‹ ÁÒ¨Ò¡¤ÇÒÁàª×èÍ·Ò§·ÄɮշҧàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμ÷Õè¡íÒ˹´â´Â¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÃμ ÅÙ¤ÑÊ ÊËÃÑ°Ï? ÂØâûμŒÍ§»ÃÐʺ»˜ÞËÒàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡¼Ù¡ÍÂÙ‹¡ÑºÃкº¤‹Òà§Ô¹ ? ਌ҢͧÃÒ§ÇÑÅâ¹àºÅ»‚ 2538 ¹ÒÂâÃàºÔÃμ ÅÙ¤Êä´ŒÊÌҧ·ÄÉ®Õà¡ÕÂǡѺ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ Ñ è ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹à»š¹¸ÃÃÁ (Adverse selection) ÂѧäÁ‹ãª‹»˜ÞËÒ·Õ蹋ҡѧÇÅ ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å (rational expectation)” «Öè§ã¹ÁØÁ¹Ö§¢Í§ “¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ ã¹¢³Ð¹Õé á싨Ð໚¹»˜ÞËÒã¹Í¹Ò¤μ “Adverse selection” ËÁÒ¤ÇÒÁÇ‹Ò ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼Å” ¡ç¤×ͤÇÒÁÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸Ô¼Å¢Í§¡ÒôíÒà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ·ҧ Í‹ҧäÃ? “adverse” ËÁÒ¶֧ äÁ‹´,Õ äÁ‹¾§»ÃÐʧ¤ áÅÐ “selection” ËÁÒ¶֧ Ö àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ ÇÔ¡Ô¾Õà´ÕÂ䴌͌ҧ¶Ö§¢ŒÍ¤ÇÒÁ´Ñ§μ‹Í仹Õé (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ ¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡ «Öè§àÁ×èÍàÍÒÁÒÃÇÁ¡Ñ¹¡ç¨ÐËÁÒ¶֧¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡·ÕèäÁ‹¾Ö§»ÃÐʧ¤à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡ Rational_expectations): ¼ÙŒ«×éÍáÅмٌ¢ÒÂÁÕ¢ŒÍÁÙÅ·Õèáμ¡μ‹Ò§äÁ‹à·‹Òà·ÕÂÁ¡Ñ¹ ÍÑμÃҢͧà§Ô¹·Õèà¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ ¡Å‹ÒǤ×Í ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕéÂÃÐÂÐÊÑé¹ (Fed fund rate) ·ÕèÍÂÙ‹ã¡ÅŒÈٹ ʋ§¼ÅãËŒÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´ If the Federal Reserve attempts to lower unemployment through (discount rate) 㹡ÒÃμÕ¤ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾÂμÒ§ æ Ŵŧ仴ŒÇ «Ö§·íÒãËŒÁŤ‹ÒÊÔ¹·ÃѾ ‹ ‹ è Ù expansionary monetary policy economic agents will anticipate the ã¹»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹à¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ â´Â¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹ã¹âšʋǹãËÞ‹Âѧ¼Ù¡μÔ´ÍÂÙ‹¡Ñº “ÁÙŤ‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹ effects of the change of policy and raise their expectations of future ÊØ·¸Ô (net present value)” «Ö觡ç¤×ÍÇÔ¸Õ¡ÒûÃѺ¤‹Ò¢Í§à§Ô¹·Õèä´Œã¹Í¹Ò¤μãˌ໚¹ inflation accordingly. This in turn will counteract the expansionary effect ¤‹Ò»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹â´Â㪌ÍÑμÃÒ¼Åμͺ᷹·ÕèμŒÍ§¡Òà (required rate of return) ËÃ×Í of the increased money supply. All that the government can do is ÍÑμÃÒ¤Ô´Å´ (discount rate, r) ÁÒ¤Ô´ μÃҺ㴷Õè¡ÃÐáÊà§Ô¹Ê´ (CF) ໚¹ºÇ¡ raise the inflation rate, not employment. à¡×ͺ·Ø¡Í‹ҧ¡ç¨Ð¤ØŒÁ¤‹Ò·Õè¨Ðŧ·Ø¹ «Öè§Ê‹Ç¹ÁÒ¡¡çÍÒ¨¨Ð¨ºÅ§´ŒÇ¡ÒÃà¡ç§¡íÒäÃã¹ ÊÔ¹·ÃѾ·ÕèÍÒ¨äÁ‹¨íÒ໚¹μŒÍ§ÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸Ô¼Å Êѹ æ §‹ÒÂ æ ¡ç¤Í¤ÇÒÁ¤Ò´ËÇѧÍ‹ҧ໚¹àËμØ໚¹¼ÅÃкØÇÒà¾×ÍãËŒ¹âºÒ é × ‹ è ·Ò§àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸ÔÀÒ¾μÑÇá·¹·Ò§àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨¨íÒ໚¹μŒÍ§äÁ‹¤Ò´¤Ô´¶Ö§¹âºÒ n NPV = Σ CFi ¹Ñ¹ æ ÁÒ¡‹Í¹ 㹪‹Ç§Ê§¤ÃÒÁâÅ¡¤Ãѧ·ÕÊͧ ¡ÒÃμ‹ÍÊ٢ͧÎÔμàÅÍ÷ÁμÍ¡ÒÃÃØ¡ÃÒ¹ é é è ‹ èÕ Õ ‹ i=1 r ¢Í§½ÃÑè§àÈÊÁÕ»ÃÐÊÔ·¸ÔÀÒ¾ÁÒ¡ â´Â½ÃÑè§àÈʤԴNjҡͧ¡íÒÅѧμÔ´ÍÒÇظ¢Í§àÂÍÃÁ¹Õ ¨ÐºØ¡½ÃÑè§àÈʼ‹Ò¹·Ò§àºÅàÂÕÂÁ áμ‹ã¹¤ÇÒÁ໚¹¨ÃÔ§áŌǡͧ¡íÒÅѧ¢Í§àÂÍÃÁѹ䴌 ÃÙ»·Õè 2 áÊ´§¤ÇÒÁÊÑÁ¾Ñ¹¸ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§»ÃÔÁÒ³à§Ô¹´ÍÅÅÒÃÊËÃÑ°Ï ã¹ÃÙ»¢Í§ M1 ºØ¡¼‹Ò¹»†Ò Ardennes ·íÒãËŒ½ÃѧàÈʾ‹ÒÂᾌÀÒÂã¹àÇÅÒäÁ‹¶§Êͧà´×͹ ÊíÒËÃѺÍÒÇظ (M1 ¤×Í »ÃÔÁÒ³à§Ô¹Í‹ҧ᤺) áÅÐÊÔ¹·ÃѾÂÊ·¸Ô¢Í§ Investment Company è Ö Ø ã¹»˜¨¨ØºÑ¹ ˹Öè§ã¹à¤Ã×èͧºÔ¹·ËÒ÷Õèᾧ·ÕèÊØ´¤×Í B-2 Spirit «Öè§ÃÒ¤Ò»ÃÐÁÒ³ Institute (ICI) Global Bonds ÃÙ»·Õè 3 áÊ´§¤ÇÒÁÊÑÁ¾Ñ¹¸ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§ÁÙŤ‹Ò·ÃѾ ˹Ö觾ѹŌҹ´ÍÅÅÒÃÊËÃÑ°Ï «Öè§ÃÒ¤ÒÊÙ§¹Õé¡çà¾ÃÒÐÇ‹ÒÁѹÁÕ¤ÇÒÁÊÒÁÒö㹡Òà ÊÔ¹ÊØ·¸Ô¢Í§ ICI EM Equity áÅдѪ¹ÕμÅÒ´Ëعä·Â (SET Index) »ÃÐà´ç¹¡ç¤Í Œ × ÊÌҧ¤ÇÒÁá»Å¡ã¨ãˌᡋ»ÃÐà·È»Ã»˜¡É´ŒÇÂÍÒÇظ¹ÔÇà¤ÅÕÂà μÃҺ㴷ո¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï Âѧ¤§¾ÔÁ¾à§Ô¹ÍÍ¡ÁÒ ¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹¡ç¨Ð¡ÃШÒÂÍÍ¡ è ¹ÒÂູ àºÍù¹à¡Œ ä´Œ»Í§¡Ñ¹¡ÒÃà¡Ô´ÇÔ¡Äμ¡Ò÷ҧàÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨¤Ãѧ·ÕÊͧâ´Â ä»ã¹·Ø¡·ÔÈ·Ò§ áμ‹äÁ‹¨íÒ໚¹·Õè¨ÐμŒÍ§¡ÃШÒÂ件֧¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹ Ñ ‡ é è ä´Œ´Òà¹Ô¹¹âºÒ·Õáμ¡μ‹Ò§¨Ò¡à´ÔÁËÅѧ¨Ò¡¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers í è â´Â䴌໴à¼ÂÁÒμáÒÃμ‹Ò§æ ãËŒÊÒ¸Òóª¹ÃѺ·ÃÒº â´Â㹡ÒûÃЪØÁ FOMC ·Õ輋ҹÁÒ ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ä´Œà»´à¼ÂNjҨФ§ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕé¹âºÒÂã¹ÃдѺ ã¡ÅŒà¤Õ§ÌÍÂÅÐ 0 ¶Ö§»‚ 2557 1
- 2. ปริวรรตทัศน / กุมภาพันธ2555 รูปที่ 2. ความสัมพันธระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และ รูปที่ 6. แขงขันกันทํา QE? สินทรัพยสุทธิของ ICI Global Bonds ตั้งแตป 2543 ICI global bonds, net assets, USD bn 3,000 200 180 2,500 160 2 y = 0.0001x - 0.2413x + 121.68 140 2 2,000 R = 0.9338 120 100 1,500 80 60 1,000 40 20 500 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 USD M1 money supply, bn Fed's balance sheet, USD bn ECB balance sheet, EUR bn Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank รูปที่ 3. ความสัมพันธระหวางมูลคาทรัพยสินสุทธิของ ICI EM Equity และดัชนี รูปที่ 7. สวนตางระหวางยูโร LIBOR - OIS ตลาดหุนไทย (SET Index) 200 300 1200 180 250 1000 160 140 200 800 120 100 150 600 80 100 400 60 40 50 200 20 - 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 ICI EM Equity net assets, USD bn, left SET index, right Euro LIBOR-OIS (Overnight Index Swap) spread, bps Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank á¼¹ÀÒ¾μ‹Í仹Õ໚¹ÊÔ§·ÕÊÒÁÒöÂ×¹Âѹ䴌 μѧáμ‹»‚ 2524 ¨¹¶Ö§¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒ ä é è è ä é QE ¢Í§ Fed äÁ‹ãª‹Ê§à´ÕÂÇã¹¢³Ð¹Õà¹×ͧ¨Ò¡¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÂØâû (ECB) ÁÕ èÔ é è ¢Í§ Lehman Brothers ã¹Çѹ·Õè 15 ¡Ñ¹ÂÒ¹ 2551 (Çѹ·Õèá‹·èÊØ´ÊíÒËÃѺÀÒ¤ Õ ¤ÇÒÁ¾ÂÒÂÒÁà¾×Í»‡Í§¡Ñ¹äÁ‹ãˌǡÄμÔ˹աÃÕ«á¾Ã‹ä»Âѧ»ÃÐà·ÈÍ×¹ ´ŒÇ¡Ò÷íÒ QE è Ô é è ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹àÅ·Õà´ÕÂÇ) ¡ÒþÔÁ¾à§Ô¹·Õà¾ÔÁ¢Ö¹¹íÒä»ÊÙ¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹·Õà¾ÔÁ¢Ö¹´ŒÇ â´Â·Ø¡æ è è é ‹ è è é à¾×ÍÅ´¤ÇÒÁÌ͹áç¢Í§μÅÒ´à§Ô¹ ÃÙ»·Õè 7 ໚¹μÑǺ‹§ªÕ¤ÇÒÁá¢ç§á¡Ã‹§¢Í§μÅÒ´ è é 1 ¾Ñ¹ÅŒÒ¹´ÍÅÅÒÃÊËÃÑ°Ï ·Õ¾Á¾ÍÍ¡ÁҨйíÒä»ÊÙ¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹ 4.9 ËÁ×¹μíÒá˹‹§ è Ô ‹ è ¹Ñ¹¤×Íʋǹμ‹Ò§ÃÐËÇ‹Ò§ ÂÙâà LIBOR áÅÐ OIS «Ö§ LIBOR ¤×ÍÍÑμÃÒ¤‹ÒºÃÔ¡Ò÷Õè è è áμ‹âª¤ÃŒÒÂä´Œ»ÃÒ¡¯ã¹ÃÙ»·Õè 5 ·Õèä´ŒáÊ´§¶Ö§Ê¶Ò¹¡Òó¡‹Í¹áÅÐËÅѧ¡ÒÃÅ‹Á ¸¹Ò¤ÒáíÒ˹´μ‹ÍÍÕ¡¸¹Ò¤ÒÃ˹֧ÊíÒËÃѺà§Ô¹·Ø¹ÃÐÂÐÊѹ ʋǹ OIS ໚¹μÑÇá»Ã è é ÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers ·ÕèªÕéÇÑ´μŒ¹·Ø¹¢Í§¡ÒûŋÍÂÊÔ¹àª×èÍ·ÕèäÁ‹ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁàÊÕè§ ´Ñ§¹Ñé¹àÁ×èÍʋǹμ‹Ò§à¾ÔèÁ¢Öé¹ ¹Ñ¹áÊ´§Ç‹Ò¸¹Ò¤ÒÃäÁ‹ÍÂÒ¡»Å‹Í¡Ùãˌ͡¸¹Ò¤ÒÃ˹֧㹪‹Ç§ÇÔ¡ÄμÔàÅËáÁ¹ ʋǹμ‹Ò§ è Œ Õ è รูปที่ 4. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง ¹Õ¾§ÊÙ§¢Ö¹¶Ö§à¡×ͺ 200bps áμ‹ LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations) é ‹Ø é งานนอกภาคการเกษตร จนถึงการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers ¢Í§ ECB ËÃ×Í·ÕèÃÙŒ¨Ñ¡¡Ñ¹ã¹¹ÒÁ QE ä´Œ·íÒãˌʋǹμ‹Ò§¹Õé䴌Ŵŧ non-farm payrolls, k 160,000 150,000 140,000 รูปที่ 8. คาเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ แบบถวงนําหนักดวยการคา 130,000 83 120,000 81 110,000 y = 48.985x + 67749 79 100,000 2 R = 0.9057 77 90,000 75 80,000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 73 USD M1, bn 71 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank 69 67 1-10 4-10 7-10 10-10 1-11 4-11 7-11 10-11 1-12 รูปที่ 5. แผนภาพระหวางปริมาณเงินดอลลารสหรัฐฯ ในรูปของ M1 และการจาง US trade weighted dollar งานนอกภาคการเกษตร กอนและหลังการลมสลายของ Lehman Brothers Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank non-farm payrolls, k 170,000 160,000 150,000 รูปที่ 9. DXY และ GDP ของสหรัฐฯ 140,000 130,000 US chain weighted real GDP, US bn 120,000 14000 110,000 y = 35.034x + 80035 13500 2 80.178, 13422.4 100,000 R = 0.7574 y = -50.16x + 16961 13000 2 90,000 R = 0.8347 80,000 12500 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 12000 USD M1, bn 11500 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank 11000 10500 â´Â¡Å‹Í§ÊÕᴧ໚¹¢ŒÍÁÙÅÀÒÂËÅѧ¡ÒÃÅ‹ÁÊÅÒ¢ͧ Lehman Brothers «Ö§ è 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 DXY, US dollar index 130 ÊÒÁÒöàª×ÍÁâ§䴌¡º·ÄɯշҧàÈÃÉ°ÈÒÊμ÷ÇÒ´ŒÇÂàÃ×ͧ¡®¡ÒÃÅ´¹ŒÍ¶ÍÂŧ è Ñ èÕ ‹ è Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank ¢Í§ÍÃö»ÃÐ⪹Êǹà¾ÔÁ (Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility) â´ÂÊÒÁÒö ‹ è ¡μÑÇÍ‹ҧ䴌¡Ñº¡ÒÃÃѺ»Ãзҹ¾Ô««‹Ò «Öè§àÃÒ¾Ö§¾Íã¨ÁÒ¡¨Ò¡¡ÒÃÃѺ»Ãзҹ àÁ×Í ECB 㪌ÁÒμáÒà LTRO ·Õè 2, 3, 4 ..... áÅÐÍ×¹ æ àÃÒ¤Ò´Ç‹Ò¤‹Òà§Ô¹ è è ¾Ô««‹ÒªÔé¹ááã¹àÇÅÒËÔÇ æ áμ‹ËÒ¡àÃÒ·Ò¹ËÅÒÂ æ ªÔé¹ ¤ÇÒÁ¾Ö§¾Íã¨ÍÒ¨¨Ð ´ÍÅÅÒÃÊËÃѰẺ¶‹Ç§¹éíÒ˹ѡ´ŒÇ¡ÒäŒÒ¨ÐÊÙ§¢Öé¹μ‹Íä» «Öè§Ëҡ໚¹àª‹¹¹Õé¹ÑºÇ‹Ò Å´¹ŒÍÂŧä»àÃ×ÍÂæ â´ÂÃÙ»·Õè 5 áÊ´§¤ÇÒÁÊÑÁ¾Ñ¹¸´§¡Å‹ÒÇâ´Â͌ҧÍÔ§¡Ñº¡ÒþÔÁ¾ è Ñ äÁ‹ãª‹ÊÔ觷Õèà¿´áÅÐÃÑ°ºÒÅÊËÃÑ°Ï μŒÍ§¡ÒèÐàËç¹ ÊíÒËÃѺ Fed ¹Ñé¹ ¹Ñºà»š¹¡Òà à§Ô¹¢Í§¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï ·ÕèÇ‹Ò¡ÒþÔÁ¾à§Ô¹ÍÍ¡ÁÒàÃ×èÍÂ æ ¡ç¨ÐÊ‹§¼ÅãËŒà¡Ô´ à¾ÔèÁ¤ÇÒÁàÊÕ觷Õè GDP Ẻ¶‹Ç§¹éíÒ˹ѡ¨ÐŴŧáÅТѴ¢ÇÒ§¡ÒÃÊÌҧ§Ò¹ã¹ ¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹·Õà¾ÔÁ¢Ö¹ã¹ÍÑμÃÒ·ÕŴŧઋ¹¡Ñ¹ ¨Ö§ÍÒ¨âμŒáÂŒ§ä´ŒÇÒ¸¹Ò¤ÒáÅÒ§ÊËÃÑ°Ï è è é è ‹ ͹Ҥμ ã¹¢³Ðà´ÕÂǡѹ ÃÑ°ºÒÅÊËÃÑ°Ï ¡çà¡Ã§Ç‹Ò¡Ãкǹ¡ÒþÔÁ¾à§Ô¹à¾×ÍÅ´ÀÒÃÐ è ¤ÇèСàÅÔ¡¹âºÒ¼‹Í¹¤ÅÒÂàªÔ§»ÃÔÁÒ³ (Quantitative Easing) à¹×èͧ¨Ò¡ ˹Õé¨ÐªÐÅÍμÑÇŧ äÁ‹ä´ŒÊ‹§¼Åμ‹Í¡ÒèŒÒ§§Ò¹ 2
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(16.4) (36.4) (28.4) (18.4) (-0.1) (-13.1) (-2.1) ÊÔ¹¤ŒÒà¢ŒÒ 17,017 16,546 20,235 18,840 16,006 15,068 17,094 (% chg.) (23.6) (13.2) (45.9) (42.6) (20.6) (-1.9) (-19.6) ´ØÅ¡ÒäŒÒ 3,799 4,552 705 2,419 1,013 218 -238 ´ØźÑÞªÕà´Ô¹ÊоѴ 2,402 3,438 -697 404 39 -136 1,940 ´ØźÑÞªÕ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹ -2,304 -2,496 161 317 -1,459 -1,664 -2,101 ´ØÅ¡ÒêíÒÃÐà§Ô¹ -972 541 -556 -1,674 -1,886 -1,506 -1,029 à§Ô¹ÊíÒÃͧ·Ò§¡Òà (¾Ñ¹ÅŒÒ¹ US$) 184.9 187.6 188.3 180.1 182.0 178.3 175.1 ÀÒ¤¡ÒÃà§Ô¹ (³ ÊÔé¹ÃÐÂÐàÇÅÒ) (¾Ñ¹ÅŒÒ¹ºÒ·) à§Ô¹½Ò¡¢Í§Ê¶ÒºÑ¹ÃѺ½Ò¡à§Ô¹ 10,993.2 11,077.5 11,152.5 11,080.5 11,363.3 11,461.7 11.610.3 (% chg.) (10.1) (11.1) (11.4) (9.8) (11.3) (10.3) (9.7) ÊÔ¹àª×èÍÀÒ¤àÍ¡ª¹¢Í§Ê¶ÒºÑ¹ÃѺ½Ò¡à§Ô¹ 10,679.1 10,718.9 10,899.7 11,071.9 11,207.8 11,308.7 11,557.6 (% chg.) (16.1) (16.3) (17.2) (17.4) (17.0) (16.0) (16.2) ÍÑμÃÒ´Í¡àºÕéÂμÅÒ´«×éͤ׹¾Ñ¹¸ºÑμà 1 Çѹ (%) 3.00 3.16 3.32 3.50 3.50 3.49 3.25 ÍÑμÃÒáÅ¡à»ÅÕè¹à©ÅÕè (ºÒ·:´ÍÅÅÒÃÊËÃÑ°Ï) 30.52 30.07 29.87 30.42 30.86 30.95 31.20 ·ÕèÁÒ : ¸¹Ò¤ÒÃáË‹§»ÃÐà·Èä·Â,** Êíҹѡ§Ò¹àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ÍØμÊÒË¡ÃÃÁ 7
- 8. ปริวรรตทัศน / กุมภาพันธ2555 ¢ŒÍÁÙÅÊíÒ¤ÑÞ·Ò§àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨ US EU Japan S.Korea Taiwan Philippines Thailand Real GDP (%YoY) 4Q11 1.6 0.7 -1.0 3.4 1.9 3.7 -9.0 3Q11 1.5 1.3 -0.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 2Q11 1.6 1.6 -1.7 3.4 4.5 3.1 2.7 1Q11 2.2 2.4 -0.3 4.2 6.6 4.6 3.2 2011 1.7 0.7 -0.9 3.6 - 3.7 0.1 2010 3.0 2.0 4.4 6.2 10.7 7.6 7.8 2009 -3.5 -2.1 -5.5 0.3 -1.8 1.1 -2.3 2008 -0.3 -2.1 -1.0 2.3 0.7 4.2 2.5 CPI (%YoY) Jan-12 - - - 3.4 2.4 3.9 3.4 Dec-11 3.0 2.7 -0.2 4.2 2.0 4.2 3.5 Nov-11 3.5 3.0 -0.5 4.2 1.0 4.8 4.2 Oct-11 3.6 3.0 -0.2 3.6 1.2 5.2 4.2 2011 3.1 2.7 -0.3 4.0 1.4 4.8 3.8 2010 1.7 1.6 -0.7 3.0 1.0 3.8 3.3 2009 -0.3 0.3 -1.3 2.8 -0.8 3.7 -0.8 2008 3.8 3.3 1.4 4.7 3.5 9.3 5.5 Exports (USD: %YoY)1/ Jan-12 - - - -6.6 -16.8 - - Dec-11 9.0 9.3 -8.0 10.8 0.6 -20.7 -2.1 Nov-11 10.1 10.1 -4.5 11.6 1.3 -19.4 -13.1 Oct-11 12.4 5.8 -3.8 7.6 11.7 -14.6 -0.1 2011 14.5 13.4 -2.6 20.1 12.8 -5.5 17.1 2010 16.7 20.0 26.1 29.1 36.9 34.6 29.2 2009 -14.0 -17.8 -31.4 -12.4 -17.1 -19.7 -12.5 2008 11.7 4.2 -3.0 14.5 4.9 -2.4 17.3 Imports (USD: %YoY)2/ Dec-11 11.3 0.8 8.2 13.6 -2.7 - 19.6 Nov-11 12.2 3.9 11.5 11.2 -10.4 0.6 -1.9 Oct-11 11.7 7.9 18.0 15.5 11.8 2.4 20.6 2011 15.7 12.2 12.2 14.1 12.0 - 24.7 2010 23.7 22.5 22.5 19.7 44.2 28.3 37.0 2009 -26.2 -21.7 -21.7 -21.7 -27.5 -21.9 -25.1 2008 7.8 8.1 8.1 9.1 9.7 3.3 26.7 Prime rates (%)3/ Jan-12 3.25 - 1.48 - 5.04 5.70 7.30 Dec-11 3.25 3.75 1.48 5.69 5.04 5.64 7.33 Nov-11 3.25 3.65 1.48 5.83 5.04 5.69 7.33 Oct-11 3.25 3.65 1.48 5.77 5.04 5.65 7.33 2011 3.25 3.78 1.48 5.76 4.96 5.64 7.00 2010 3.25 3.48 1.48 5.51 4.74 4.99 6.02 2009 3.25 3.71 1.48 5.86 4.96 6.03 7.20 2008 3.25 3.89 1.48 5.65 4.90 7.31 6.07 Exchange rates (Avg.) Jan-12 - 1.2912 76.93 1,143.19 30.01 43.56 31.52 Dec-11 - 1.3168 77.90 1,148.16 30.26 43.65 31.14 Nov-11 - 1.3568 77.56 1,133.10 30.22 43.29 30.94 Oct-11 - 1.3728 76.68 1,152.53 30.27 43.33 30.86 2011 1.3926 79.70 1,107.97 29.39 43.30 30.48 2010 - 1.3266 87.73 1,156.40 31.49 45.08 31.70 2009 - 1.3736 107.76 1,065.30 32.48 47.36 34.37 2008 - 1.4713 103.32 1,101.62 31.55 44.48 33.36 Stock Market (end of period)4/ Jan-12 12,632.9 6,458.9 8,802.5 1,955.8 7,517.1 4,682.4 1,084.0 Dec-11 12,217.6 5,898.4 8,455.4 1,825.7 7,072.1 4,372.0 1,025.3 Nov-11 12,045.7 6,088.8 8,434.6 1,847.5 6,904.1 4,211.0 995.3 Oct-11 11,955.0 6,141.3 8,988.4 1,909.0 7,587.7 4,333.7 974.8 2011 12,217.6 5,898.4 8,455.4 1,825.7 7,072.1 4,372.0 1,025.3 2010 11,557.5 6,914.0 10,288.9 2,051.0 8,972.5 4,201.1 1,032.8 2009 10,344.8 5,625.9 9,345.5 1,555.6 7,582.2 3,044.9 689.1 2008 8,776.4 4,810.2 8,859.6 1,124.5 4,591.2 1,872.9 450.0 ·ÕèÁÒ : Bloomberg 1/ Euro Zone(EURO), Japan (Yen) 2/ Euro Zone(EURO), Japan (Yen) 3/ Euro Zone (Interest rate on loans to non-financial corporation (over EUR 1 million by initial rate fixation)) 4/ US (Dow Jones), Euro Zone (German XETRA DAX), Japan (Nikkei),Korea (KOSPI), Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted), Philippines (PSE Composite Index), Thailand (SET Index) àÍ¡ÊÒéºÑº¹Õé¨Ñ´·íÒ¢Öé¹à¾×èÍÇÑμ¶Ø»ÃÐʧ¤ÊíÒËÃѺ㪌໚¹¢ŒÍÁÙÅ㹡Òû¯ÔºÑμÔ§Ò¹ÀÒÂ㹺Á¨.¸¹Ò¤ÒáÊÔ¡Ãä·ÂáÅÐÊíÒËÃѺÅÙ¡¤ŒÒ·Õ踹ҤÒáíÒ˹´à·‹Ò¹Ñé¹ ¢ŒÍÁÙÅã¹àÍ¡ÊÒùÕé¨Ñ´àμÃÕÂÁ¢Öé¹à¾×èͨشÁØ‹§ËÁÒÂ㹡ÒÃãËŒ¢ŒÍÁÙÅ ¤ÇÒÁàËç¹áÅк·ÇÔà¤ÃÒÐËÍÒ¨à»ÅÕè¹á»Å§ä´Œâ´ÂäÁ‹μŒÍ§á¨Œ§ãËŒ·ÃҺŋǧ˹ŒÒ¸¹Ò¤ÒÃáÊ´§¤ÇÒÁàËç¹ã¹°Ò¹Ð·Õè໚¹¼ÙŒ·íÒμÅÒ´ (Market Maker) ¢Í§μÃÒÊÒ÷ҧ¡ÒÃà§Ô¹·ÕèÁÕ¡ÒáŋÒÇã¹àÍ¡ÊÒéºÑº¹Õé ¢ŒÍÁÙÅã¹ àÍ¡ÊÒéºÑº¹Õé໚¹¢ŒÍÁÙÅ·Õ踹ҤÒÃàª×èÍÇ‹Ò¶Ù¡μŒÍ§ áμ‹¸¹Ò¤ÒÃÁÔä´ŒÃѺÃͧ¤ÇÒÁ¶Ù¡μŒÍ§á·Œ¨ÃÔ§áÅФÇÒÁÊÁºÙó¢Í§¢ŒÍÁÙŴѧ¡Å‹ÒÇ àÍ¡ÊÒéºÑº¹ÕéÁÔ㪋¡ÒÃàʹÍËÃ×ͪÕéªÇ¹ãËŒ«×éÍËÃ×Í¢ÒÂËÃ×Íâ͹μÃÒÊÒÃã´æ ¸¹Ò¤Òà áÅÐ/ËÃ×ͼٌà¢Õ¹¨ÐäÁ‹ÃѺ¼Ô´ªÍºã´æ㹤ÇÒÁÊÙÞàÊÕÂËÃ×ÍàÊÕÂËÒ·Õèà¡Ô´¢Ö鹨ҡ¡ÒÃ㪌¢ŒÍÁÙÅ·ÕèÃкØã¹àÍ¡ÊÒéºÑº¹ÕéʧǹÅÔ¢ÊÔ·¸ÔìμÒÁ¡®ËÁÒ ˌÒÁà¼Âá¾Ã‹â´ÂÁÔä´ŒÃѺ͹ØÞÒμ ਌ҢͧáÅмٌ¨Ñ´·íÒ : ºÁ¨.¸¹Ò¤ÒáÊÔ¡Ãä·Â 1 «Í¡ÊÔ¡Ãä·Â ¶¹¹ÃÒɮúÙóР¡ÃØ§à·¾Ï 10140 â·Ã. +66(2) 888-8888 â·ÃÊÒà +66(2) 871-3639 27 ¡ØÁÀҾѹ¸ 2555 ¾ÔÁ¾·Õè ºÃÔÉÑ· ä·Â¡ÃÒ¿¤á͹´¾ÃÔé¹· ¨íÒ¡Ñ´ àÅ¢·Õè 20/297 ËÁÙ‹·Õè 6 ¶¹¹àÅÕº¤ÅͧÊͧ á¢Ç§ÊÒÁÇÒμÐÇÑ¹μ¡ à¢μ¤ÅͧÊÒÁÇÒ ¡ÃØ§à·¾Ï 10510 8