June 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
May’s rebound demonstrates the
strength of the U.S. labor market
U.S. employment situation: May 2015 June 5, 2015

May 2015 employment summary
• After a bumpy beginning to 2015, the labor market regained its resilience in May, with 280,000 new jobs created over the course of the
month, resulting in year-to-date gains of 1.1 million jobs. Additionally, previous months saw upward revisions for the second month in a row.
• Unemployment increased by 10 basis points to 5.5 percent. This was likely due to a 10-basis-point increase in the labor force participation
rate, which now stands at 62.9 percent. Total unemployment, on the other hand, remained the same at 10.8 percent and is now
consistently below its 10-year average.
• Unemployment for college graduates stayed the same in May at 2.7 percent, slightly less than half the national rate. However, labor force
participation remains relatively flat, particularly for high-school graduates.
• Sustained employment and a looming talent crunch in major markets becoming more apparent have enabled wages to grow even more
above the rate of inflation, in part due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices. Private-sector wages are up 2.3 percent year-on-year, while
those in professional and business services are growing even faster at 2.4 percent.
• Office-using industries contributed 73,000 jobs to May’s growth, roughly the same as in April. PBS moved back to stable levels of gains at
63,000 jobs, while financial activities posted a month-to-month increase of 13,000 jobs. However, the gains in education and health meant
that PBS was only the second-largest industry in terms of monthly growth and office-using jobs contributed just 26.1 percent of total gains
during May.
• At the market level, Silicon Valley saw 6.0-percent annual job growth, among the highest rates recorded for a JLL-tracked market this cycle.
Tech-heavy markets such as San Francisco and Seattle as well as the rapidly growing Sun Belt markets such as the Carolinas, South
Florida and red-hot Texas remain leaders, although Houston is beginning to see a sharp slowdown in employment growth to 2.3 percent,
compared to the nearly 4.0-percent growth just one year ago.
- Even slower-growth markets, particularly those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast, posted small but significant bumps in annual
growth rates.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

May 2015 labor market at a glance
+280,000
1-month net change
+3,058,000
12-month net change
+672,000
10-year average annual growth
5.5%
Unemployment rate
-80bp
12-month change in unemployment
7.1%
10-year average unemployment
4,994,000
Job openings
5,067,000
Hires
2,783,00
Quits

With 280,000 new jobs created, May returned to the strong
levels of growth seen at the end of 2014
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
201,000
266,000
119,000
221,000
280,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
1-monthnetchange
4

YTD gains of 1.1 million new jobs keep unemployment steady
at 5.5 percent as labor force participation inches up
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
5

Job openings continue to hover around the 5.0-million mark,
up 18.6 percent year-on-year
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jobopenings(thousands)

-18.0
-3.0
1.0
1.1
2.0
4.1
6.0
6.6
7.0
13.0
13.1
17.0
18.0
20.1
31.4
57.0
57.7
63.0
74.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Mining and logging
Information
Durable goods
Utilities
Other services
Wholesale trade
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Government
Temporary help services
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Education and health services led employment growth in May,
while mining and logging continues to contract
7
Education and health
PBS
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
69.3 percent of
monthly
growth.

A slowdown in construction employment and boosts in
education and health resulted in service-heavy gains in May
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Goods-producing Service-providing
8

-43.0
10.9
33.0
57.9
60.0
62.0
91.0
100.0
146.5
148.0
160.0
160.3
181.0
273.0
314.0
439.0
519.0
592.0
671.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Other services
Wholesale trade
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Temporary help services
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
All other jobs
All subsectors but mining and logging, which has been
affected by a slump in energy prices, have seen annual growth
9
Core subsectors added 77.1 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemployment(%)
White-collar unemployment stayed stable at 2.7 percent in
May, half the national rate
10

Labor force participation rose once again (+40bp) for
bachelor’s degree holders, stable for high-school graduates
11
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Highschoolgraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%)
Collegegraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college

On an annual basis, energy has begun to contract as oil prices
remain well below average
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through April 2015.
12
12-month%change(jobs)

Tech job creation continues to hover slightly below 6.0 percent
due to sustained industry demand
Year-on-year percent employment growth
13

Weekly claims over the course of 2015 have averaged just
286,000 and continue to fall slowly
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits remain steady, up 7.7 and 13.1 percent,
respectively

Silicon Valley job creation reaches 6.0 percent year-on-year,
continuing to lead among major markets
16
San Francisco
4.9%
Silicon Valley
6.0%
Atlanta
3.4%
Miami
3.4%
Dallas
3.9%
Austin
3.2%
Seattle
3.9%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing
slower, but have seen a small bump of late
17
Hampton
Roads
0.5%
St. Louis
0.2%
Milwaukee
1.4%
Pittsburgh
1.3%
Cleveland
1.0%
Philadelphia
1.1%

Unlike the official unemployment rate, total unemployment
was flat at 10.8 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
18

Labor force participation increased by 10 basis points to 62.9
percent, an influence in the slight uptick in unemployment
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)

Significant growth in education, health, leisure, hospitality and
other subsectors reduced office-using industries’ share of gains
20

Despite a small contraction in information, growth in financial
activities and PBS kept office-using jobs gains stable
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
21

Temporary help services posted another month of increase, but
continues to grow slower than earlier in the recovery
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporaryemployment(ths)
22

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
Or, find more employment, business and real estate
research at jll.com.
>>> Click here to check it out.

June 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

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