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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
A muted December capped off a
slower, more inconsistent 2016
U.S. employment situation: December 2016 January 6, 2017
December 2016 employment summary
• 2016 was slower and more inconsistent than 2015
- Job creation over the course of 2016 totaled nearly 2.2 million jobs, a 21.4-percent lower figure than the more than 2.7 million jobs created
in 2015. Monthly gains averaged 180,000 vs. the 229,000 in 2015, largely as a result of talent shortages in major markets. More notably,
monthly additions were more inconsistent throughout the year, ranging from a high of 252,000 in July to a low of 24,000 in May. As slack in
the labor market continues to decline, this rate of slower growth and general fluctuation is likely to persist.
- On the other hand, unemployment continued to perform well, declining by 30 basis points over the year to 4.7 percent and reaching a
cyclical low of 4.6 percent in November. Declines in unemployment came as a result of a steadily increasing workforce, marginally boosting
participation, and job growth outperforming the rate of expansion in the workforce. Total unemployment declined by more than double the
rate of headline unemployment and now stands at 9.2 percent.
- Industry growth was also inconsistent in December. Notably, the temporary help services component of PBS contracted by 15,500 jobs and
construction fell by 3,000, while retail trade rose by only 6,300. Many critical components of job creation, such as PBS and manufacturing,
also registered greater fluctuations in 2016.
• Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, reaching highest rate of increase this cycle
- Despite the inconsistencies found in terms of job creation, wage growth remained a constant bright spot throughout the year, increasing by
2.9 percent year-over-year in December, its fastest rate since 2009. Hourly earnings rose across a variety of industries, with information,
leisure, manufacturing and construction leading at more than 3.0 percent each. Only education and health saw annual gains below 2.0
percent.
- Earnings also increased above the rate of inflation even as the consumer price index rebounded markedly on the back of increasing energy
prices. Tightening in the labor market will likely keep wage growth above or at the CPI over the short term, although the effects of the
Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate hike have yet to be fully seen.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
December 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance
+156,000
(75 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,157,000
(+1.5% y-o-y)
12-month change
+786,000
10-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.7%
Unemployment rate
-30bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
5,534,000
(+2.1% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,099,000
(-2.2% y-o-y)
Hires
2,986,000
(+6.8% y-o-y)
Quits
3
December’s modest 156,000 new jobs along with upward
November and downward October revision capped a slower 2016
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
221,000
265,000
84,000
251,000
273,000
228,000
277,000
150,000
149,000
295,000
280,000
262,000
168,000
233,000
186,000
277,000
24,000
271,000
252,000
176,000
208,000
135,000
204,000
156,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1-monthnetchange
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
A 10-basis-point increase in participation and steady growth in
the labor market pushed up unemployment to 4.7 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Job openings continue to fluctuate around the 5.5 million
mark, but show no sign of falling as of yet
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jobopenings(thousands)
1.8%
2.6%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
3.7%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
5.0%
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Other services
Construction
Information
Trade, transportation and utilities
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Job openings rate
Rate of job openings continues to rise, particularly in
education, health, finance and trade
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits are both stable, but saw no significant rise
during the second half of 2016
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage growth hit a cyclical high of 2.9 percent in December,
once again outpacing growth in inflation
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
1.8%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.7%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
4.4%
4.4%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Education and health
Other services
Professional and business services
Financial activities
Mining and logging
Trade, transportation and utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month % change in wages
Below-average wage growth in education, health and PBS
countered by gains in leisure, manufacturing and trade
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red
10
Annual growth in both the labor force and employment have
slowed, but job growth continues to eclipse new entrants
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-month%change
Civilian labor force Total non-farm
Labor force participation remains wobbly, but increased 10bp
in December to 62.7 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
-15.5
-8.0
-6.0
-3.0
-2.0
0.2
2.0
2.0
2.9
6.3
12.0
13.0
14.7
15.0
15.0
17.0
24.0
63.3
70.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Temporary help services
Other services
Information
Construction
Mining and logging
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Motor vehicles and parts
Retail trade
Government
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Professional and business services
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Counter to earlier months, temporary help services and
construction contracted, pulling down net gains
13
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-80.0
-53.0
-45.0
-2.0
1.8
8.0
15.9
23.1
51.5
57.0
62.1
102.0
159.0
183.0
256.7
295.0
514.1
522.0
593.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Information
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Temporary help services
Wholesale trade
Other services
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Financial activities
Government
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
593.0
522.0295.0
256.7
159.0
331.3
Education and health PBS
Leisure and hospitality Retail trade
Financial activities Manufacturing
All other jobs
Contractions in manufacturing and a slowdown in retail trade
reduced diversity of job creation in 2016 compared to 2015
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Core subsectors added 84.6 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)
Although fluctuating, 2016 saw no net change in
unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders at 2.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
A drop-off in PBS growth, stability in finance and contraction in
information kept office-using employment minimal in December
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Energy is still posting contraction on an annual basis, but
declines are slowing quickly
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through September 2016
17
12-month%change(jobs)
Initial unemployment claims continue to stay near their 40-year
low; moving average at 256,000 per week
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
18
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ConsumerconfidenceIndex
Consumer confidence rose significantly in December to 113.7
points, surpassing 2007’s peak
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
19
Even though tech is beginning to cool off and normalize to new
growth rates, Seattle and Silicon Valley remain leaders in jobs
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
Silicon
Valley
3.3%
Orlando
4.5%
Denver
3.1%
Dallas
3.3%
Salt Lake
City
3.5%
Seattle-
Bellevue
3.5%
Unlike headline employment, total unemployment dipped
once again to 9.2 percent, a 70bp annual drop
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Totalunemployment(%)
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
Ryan Severino
Chief Economist - Americas Research
Ryan.Severino@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com

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US employment rate data and trends – December 2016

  • 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 A muted December capped off a slower, more inconsistent 2016 U.S. employment situation: December 2016 January 6, 2017
  • 2. December 2016 employment summary • 2016 was slower and more inconsistent than 2015 - Job creation over the course of 2016 totaled nearly 2.2 million jobs, a 21.4-percent lower figure than the more than 2.7 million jobs created in 2015. Monthly gains averaged 180,000 vs. the 229,000 in 2015, largely as a result of talent shortages in major markets. More notably, monthly additions were more inconsistent throughout the year, ranging from a high of 252,000 in July to a low of 24,000 in May. As slack in the labor market continues to decline, this rate of slower growth and general fluctuation is likely to persist. - On the other hand, unemployment continued to perform well, declining by 30 basis points over the year to 4.7 percent and reaching a cyclical low of 4.6 percent in November. Declines in unemployment came as a result of a steadily increasing workforce, marginally boosting participation, and job growth outperforming the rate of expansion in the workforce. Total unemployment declined by more than double the rate of headline unemployment and now stands at 9.2 percent. - Industry growth was also inconsistent in December. Notably, the temporary help services component of PBS contracted by 15,500 jobs and construction fell by 3,000, while retail trade rose by only 6,300. Many critical components of job creation, such as PBS and manufacturing, also registered greater fluctuations in 2016. • Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, reaching highest rate of increase this cycle - Despite the inconsistencies found in terms of job creation, wage growth remained a constant bright spot throughout the year, increasing by 2.9 percent year-over-year in December, its fastest rate since 2009. Hourly earnings rose across a variety of industries, with information, leisure, manufacturing and construction leading at more than 3.0 percent each. Only education and health saw annual gains below 2.0 percent. - Earnings also increased above the rate of inflation even as the consumer price index rebounded markedly on the back of increasing energy prices. Tightening in the labor market will likely keep wage growth above or at the CPI over the short term, although the effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate hike have yet to be fully seen. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2
  • 3. December 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance +156,000 (75 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,157,000 (+1.5% y-o-y) 12-month change +786,000 10-year average annual growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.7% Unemployment rate -30bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.7% Labor force participation rate 5,534,000 (+2.1% y-o-y) Job openings 5,099,000 (-2.2% y-o-y) Hires 2,986,000 (+6.8% y-o-y) Quits 3
  • 4. December’s modest 156,000 new jobs along with upward November and downward October revision capped a slower 2016 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 221,000 265,000 84,000 251,000 273,000 228,000 277,000 150,000 149,000 295,000 280,000 262,000 168,000 233,000 186,000 277,000 24,000 271,000 252,000 176,000 208,000 135,000 204,000 156,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-monthnetchange 4 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 5. A 10-basis-point increase in participation and steady growth in the labor market pushed up unemployment to 4.7 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
  • 6. Job openings continue to fluctuate around the 5.5 million mark, but show no sign of falling as of yet Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Jobopenings(thousands)
  • 7. 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 5.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Mining and logging Manufacturing Other services Construction Information Trade, transportation and utilities Financial activities Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Education and health Job openings rate Rate of job openings continues to rise, particularly in education, health, finance and trade Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
  • 8. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hiresandquits(thousands) Hires Quits Hires and quits are both stable, but saw no significant rise during the second half of 2016 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 9. Wage growth hit a cyclical high of 2.9 percent in December, once again outpacing growth in inflation Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-month%change Hourly wage growth CPI growth
  • 10. 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Education and health Other services Professional and business services Financial activities Mining and logging Trade, transportation and utilities Construction Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Information 12-month % change in wages Below-average wage growth in education, health and PBS countered by gains in leisure, manufacturing and trade Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red 10
  • 11. Annual growth in both the labor force and employment have slowed, but job growth continues to eclipse new entrants Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-month%change Civilian labor force Total non-farm
  • 12. Labor force participation remains wobbly, but increased 10bp in December to 62.7 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  • 13. -15.5 -8.0 -6.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.9 6.3 12.0 13.0 14.7 15.0 15.0 17.0 24.0 63.3 70.0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Temporary help services Other services Information Construction Mining and logging Utilities Nondurable goods Wholesale trade Motor vehicles and parts Retail trade Government Financial activities Transportation and warehousing Durable goods Professional and business services Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Education and health services 1-month net change (thousands) Counter to earlier months, temporary help services and construction contracted, pulling down net gains 13 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 14. -80.0 -53.0 -45.0 -2.0 1.8 8.0 15.9 23.1 51.5 57.0 62.1 102.0 159.0 183.0 256.7 295.0 514.1 522.0 593.0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mining and logging Durable goods Manufacturing Information Utilities Nondurable goods Motor vehicles and parts Temporary help services Wholesale trade Other services Transportation and warehousing Construction Financial activities Government Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Education and health services 12-month net change (thousands) 593.0 522.0295.0 256.7 159.0 331.3 Education and health PBS Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Financial activities Manufacturing All other jobs Contractions in manufacturing and a slowdown in retail trade reduced diversity of job creation in 2016 compared to 2015 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 14 Core subsectors added 84.6 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  • 15. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%) Although fluctuating, 2016 saw no net change in unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders at 2.5 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
  • 16. A drop-off in PBS growth, stability in finance and contraction in information kept office-using employment minimal in December -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Information Professional and business services Financial activities Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 16
  • 17. Energy is still posting contraction on an annual basis, but declines are slowing quickly -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through September 2016 17 12-month%change(jobs)
  • 18. Initial unemployment claims continue to stay near their 40-year low; moving average at 256,000 per week Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 18 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  • 19. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ConsumerconfidenceIndex Consumer confidence rose significantly in December to 113.7 points, surpassing 2007’s peak Source: JLL Research, Conference Board 19
  • 20. Even though tech is beginning to cool off and normalize to new growth rates, Seattle and Silicon Valley remain leaders in jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 Silicon Valley 3.3% Orlando 4.5% Denver 3.1% Dallas 3.3% Salt Lake City 3.5% Seattle- Bellevue 3.5%
  • 21. Unlike headline employment, total unemployment dipped once again to 9.2 percent, a 70bp annual drop 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Totalunemployment(%) Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21
  • 22. ©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Ryan Severino Chief Economist - Americas Research Ryan.Severino@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com