This document summarizes some of the work done by James Trostle and collaborators on a long-term study of environmental change, social dynamics, and infectious disease transmission in rural coastal Ecuador. The study uses a mixed methods approach, combining epidemiological surveillance, microbiological analysis, social network analysis, ethnography and mathematical modeling across multiple villages that vary in remoteness and access to roads. Some key findings discussed are that remoteness influences pathogen prevalence, with more remote villages having lower rates of disease. Social networks, which also vary with remoteness, impact disease transmission. The relationship between rainfall, water flows, and diarrhea is complex and context-dependent. Ongoing work aims to better understand how social and hydrological dynamics interact
Highlighting Water, Hygiene & Sanitation at the International Society for Neg...COUNTDOWN on NTDs
Dr Lucas Cunningham gave this presentation at the ISNTD WASH event on 23rd Nov. 2017. He collaborated in a workshop with other partners from SCI and GSA to further elaborate on WASH and its implications for NTDs.
Irrigation and the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission - a case study from...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Tsetse, trypanosomiasis and communities in transition: investigations into he...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Neil Anderson of the University of Edinburgh at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
CDC: Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, HaitiStanleylucas
CDC epidemiologic study provides several additional arguments confirming an importation of cholera in Haiti. There was an exact correlation in time and places between the arrival of a Nepalese battalion from an area experiencing a cholera outbreak and the appearance of the first cases in Meille a few days after. The remoteness of Meille in central Haiti and the absence of report of other incomers make it unlikely that a cholera strain might have been brought there another way. DNA fingerprinting of V. cholerae isolates in Haiti (1) and genotyping (7,21) corroborate our findings because the fingerprinting and genotyping suggest an introduction from a distant source in a single event (22).
Highlighting Water, Hygiene & Sanitation at the International Society for Neg...COUNTDOWN on NTDs
Dr Lucas Cunningham gave this presentation at the ISNTD WASH event on 23rd Nov. 2017. He collaborated in a workshop with other partners from SCI and GSA to further elaborate on WASH and its implications for NTDs.
Irrigation and the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission - a case study from...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Bernard Bett of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Tsetse, trypanosomiasis and communities in transition: investigations into he...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Dr Neil Anderson of the University of Edinburgh at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
CDC: Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, HaitiStanleylucas
CDC epidemiologic study provides several additional arguments confirming an importation of cholera in Haiti. There was an exact correlation in time and places between the arrival of a Nepalese battalion from an area experiencing a cholera outbreak and the appearance of the first cases in Meille a few days after. The remoteness of Meille in central Haiti and the absence of report of other incomers make it unlikely that a cholera strain might have been brought there another way. DNA fingerprinting of V. cholerae isolates in Haiti (1) and genotyping (7,21) corroborate our findings because the fingerprinting and genotyping suggest an introduction from a distant source in a single event (22).
Scientific Facts on Biodiversity & Human Well-beingGreenFacts
Biodiversity contributes to many aspects of human well-being, for instance by providing raw materials and contributing to health.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment shows that human actions often lead to irreversible losses in terms of diversity of life on Earth and these losses have been more rapid in the past 50 years than ever before in human history.
What factors are responsible for this rapid loss? What would need to be done to significantly slow this trend?
Agent-based modelling as an integrative framework for One Health: trypanosomi...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Peter Atkinson of Lancaster University of Zimbabwe at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Evaluating the impacts of the development of irrigation schemes in arid and s...ILRI
Poster by B. Bett, M. Said, I. Njeru, S. Kifugo, J. Gachohi, R. Sang, S. Bukachi and D. Grace presented at the Epidemics4 conference, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 19-22 November 2013.
The interconnections between human, animal and environmental healthUniversity of Calgary
One Health is an initiative that looks at how people, animals and the environment interact, and the health impacts that each has on the others. Researcher Dr. Baljit Singh provides a deeper insight into how One Health could improve our understanding of complex problems such as food safety, water safety, infection and disease transmission through a cross-disciplinary approach.
Co-presenter Dr. Susan Cork looks at three different case studies on vector borne diseases in Canada to illustrate the need to take a One Health approach in the face of climate change and other factors affecting in how diseases are distributed. To watch the webinar recording, go to http://www.ucalgary.ca/explore/interconnections-between-human-animal-and-environmental-health
Scientific Facts on Biodiversity & Human Well-beingGreenFacts
Biodiversity contributes to many aspects of human well-being, for instance by providing raw materials and contributing to health.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment shows that human actions often lead to irreversible losses in terms of diversity of life on Earth and these losses have been more rapid in the past 50 years than ever before in human history.
What factors are responsible for this rapid loss? What would need to be done to significantly slow this trend?
Agent-based modelling as an integrative framework for One Health: trypanosomi...Naomi Marks
Presentation by Professor Peter Atkinson of Lancaster University of Zimbabwe at the One Health for the Real World: zoonoses, ecosystems and wellbeing symposium, London 17-18 March 2016
Evaluating the impacts of the development of irrigation schemes in arid and s...ILRI
Poster by B. Bett, M. Said, I. Njeru, S. Kifugo, J. Gachohi, R. Sang, S. Bukachi and D. Grace presented at the Epidemics4 conference, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 19-22 November 2013.
The interconnections between human, animal and environmental healthUniversity of Calgary
One Health is an initiative that looks at how people, animals and the environment interact, and the health impacts that each has on the others. Researcher Dr. Baljit Singh provides a deeper insight into how One Health could improve our understanding of complex problems such as food safety, water safety, infection and disease transmission through a cross-disciplinary approach.
Co-presenter Dr. Susan Cork looks at three different case studies on vector borne diseases in Canada to illustrate the need to take a One Health approach in the face of climate change and other factors affecting in how diseases are distributed. To watch the webinar recording, go to http://www.ucalgary.ca/explore/interconnections-between-human-animal-and-environmental-health
IARU Global Challenges 2014 Cornell Tracking our declineSarah Cornell
There is growing attention to the global risks - not just local impacts - of present rates of biodiversity loss. It is worth keeping in mind that 'biodiversity loss' actually means the destruction (sometimes irreversible) – by us, people – of living organisms, Earth's 'genetic library', species, ecosystems and habitats. The fact that ecosystems are complex, adaptive, and locally specific means they can't be adequately represented in a single global measure. But without any overarching global perspective on losses, the locally contingent measures are 'untethered' to the real risks of systemic change. Scientists of many kinds are rising to the transdisciplinary challenge of dealing with this complexity in the face of global drivers of change (climate change, development pressures), recognizing that it is a challenge for everyone, not just academia.
Urbanization and Global Biosecurity: A Dangerously Neglected Dimension in DOD Doctrine and National Security Policy. Mad Scientist 2016: Megacities and Dense Urban Areas in 2025 and Beyond. Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona (Apr 21 2016 - Apr 22 2016)
Regional and global elevational patterns of microbial species richness and ev...sediman
Although elevational gradients in microbial biodiversity have attracted increasing attention recently, the generality in the patterns and underlying mechanisms are still poorly resolved. Further, previous studies focused mostly on species richness, while left understudied evenness, another important aspect of biodiversity. Here, we studied the elevational patterns in species richness and evenness of stream bio lm bacteria and diatoms in six mountains in Asia and Europe. We also reviewed published results for elevational richness patterns for soil and stream microbes in a literature analysis. Our results revealed that even within the same ecosystem type (that is, stream) or geographical region, bacteria and diatoms showed contrasting patterns in diversity. Stream microbes, including present stream data, tend to show signi cantly increasing or decreasing elevational patterns in richness, contrasting the ndings for soil microbes that typically showed nonsigni cant or signi cantly decreasing patterns. In all six mountains for bacteria and in four mountains for diatoms, species richness and evenness were positively correlated. e variation in bacteria and diatom richness and evenness were substantially explained by anthropogenic driven factors, such as total phosphorus (TP). However, diatom richness and evenness were also related to di erent main drivers as richness was mostly related to pH, while evenness was most explained by TP. Our results highlight the lack of consistent elevational biodiversity patterns of microbes and further indicate that the two facets of biodiversity may respond di erently to environmental gradients.
assessing heterogeneous influences on partial deposition of virus in lateriticIJCMESJOURNAL
This paper monitored the rate of partial deposition of virus on heterogeneous formation, the study were able to monitor the behaviour of virus in heterogeneous deposition influencing partial concentration of virus in Lateritic and silty formation. The study was able to observe the rate of partial deposition base on its rate of fluctuation through variation observed from deposited void ratio and permeability, such formation developed fluctuation on these parameters thus generated partial deposition of virus in the study area. Linear deposition were also experienced in graphical representation, the result obtained ranged from [1.97E-12-2.35E-11],[3-30M], [1.97E-12-2.36E-11[10-100] Predictive 1.97E-12, Experimental 1.87E-12 [3-36m], predictive, [1,97E-12], Experimental [2.26E-11] [10-120 Days] predictive 2.36E-12, Experimental 2.24E-11,[10-120Days] [1.31E-12-2.36E11], Predictive1.31E-12, Experimental, 2.36E-11 [2-30m], predictive,[2.36E-11-2.2E-11]; [2-30m] ,for Time 1.31E-12-2.36E-11[4-60days] while predictive and Experimental,[2,36E-11] [1.37E-12-2,22E-11] [2-30m] The prediction rate of partial deposition of virus was possible through mathematical modeling techniques, the system were developed base on the parameters from predominant formation characteristics in study location, these parameters generated the derived model through the developed governing equation, simulation generated theoretical values that were compared with experimental results, both parameters developed best fits validating the model, experts will definitely applied this approach in monitoring and evaluation of virus deposits in the study area.
assessing heterogeneous influences on partial deposition of virus in lateriticIJCMESJOURNAL
This paper monitored the rate of partial deposition of virus on heterogeneous formation, the study were able to monitor the behaviour of virus in heterogeneous deposition influencing partial concentration of virus in Lateritic and silty formation. The study was able to observe the rate of partial deposition base on its rate of fluctuation through variation observed from deposited void ratio and permeability, such formation developed fluctuation on these parameters thus generated partial deposition of virus in the study area. Linear deposition were also experienced in graphical representation, the result obtained ranged from [1.97E-12-2.35E-11],[3-30M], [1.97E-12-2.36E-11[10-100] Predictive 1.97E-12, Experimental 1.87E-12 [3-36m], predictive, [1,97E-12], Experimental [2.26E-11] [10-120 Days] predictive 2.36E-12, Experimental 2.24E-11,[10-120Days] [1.31E-12-2.36E11], Predictive1.31E-12, Experimental, 2.36E-11 [2-30m], predictive,[2.36E-11-2.2E-11]; [2-30m] ,for Time 1.31E-12-2.36E-11[4-60days] while predictive and Experimental,[2,36E-11] [1.37E-12-2,22E-11] [2-30m] The prediction rate of partial deposition of virus was possible through mathematical modeling techniques, the system were developed base on the parameters from predominant formation characteristics in study location, these parameters generated the derived model through the developed governing equation, simulation generated theoretical values that were compared with experimental results, both parameters developed best fits validating the model, experts will definitely applied this approach in monitoring and evaluation of virus deposits in the study area.
1
4
Virus Spread
Natasha Higdon
MHA/507
December 3, 2018
Professor David Stribbards
Introduction
There are different virus’ that affect people across the world. It can be noted that the increased development of cities has led to the potential risks as well as challenges based on emerging infectious diseases. They have associated many risk factors with the spread of diseases in the US cities. These factors are housing conditions, people’s movement, etc. that has led to a change or proliferation of insect vectors. Other factors that have led to the spread or outbreak of viruses are poor sanitation and insufficient water supply. This has contributed to the comfortable breeding ground for insects, which carry pathogens and another transmitted infection. This paper presents information about a virus outbreak in US cities and prevalence rates based on age.
Virus Infections
Cities are considered as the perfect hotbed and breeding ground for viruses and the spread of disease as more people move to crowded areas. As the world becomes more urbanized, the more cities will grow or develop; these cities might be kept clean or well maintained. Even though big cities have all the required health care facilities such as a sanitation department, but the moment the population increases the city always outgrows these service. According to the study conducted by Adda, (2016), there is an increased number of people traveling in the US, and this might be the reason for the virus outbreak. The individual cities in the United States have shown different transmission patterns, which are different due to climate variation etc.
Figure 1: Virus Prevalence
The Figure above presents virus spread according to the age. The findings show that people aged less than years are highly affected by the virus as compared to any other age group. This age group has reported a high number of cases in most cities in the US. The ages least affected are between 19 and 30; this group has a lower number of cases in all cities as compared to any other group. People aged 18 years and less has a high prevalence rate of 0.43 while those aged between 19 and 30 had a prevalence rate of 0.154. The findings imply that younger people are highly affected by virus across all cities in the US.
References
Adda, J. (2016). Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high-frequency data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(2), 891-941.
Sustainability 2010, 2, 2626-2651; doi:10.3390/su2082626
sustainability
ISSN 2071-1050
www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
Article
The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability
Paul D. Raskin *, Christi Electris and Richard A. Rosen
Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116, USA; E-Mails: [email protected] (C.E.);
[email protected] (R.A.R)
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected];
Tel.: +1-617-266-5400; Fax: +1-617-266-8303.
Received: 10 July 2010;.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
1. Some adventures in global health
and interscalar travel
James Trostle, PhD MPH
Professor of Anthropology
Trinity College
Faculty Research Lecture
April 7, 2016
2. Global health?
Major killers of children under 5 (~6 million
deaths in 2015):
Respiratory diseases esp. pneumonia,
Diarrheal diseases,
Malnutrition,
Prematurity and birth trauma.
3. BUT many studies of infectious disease
are inadequate [lamplight studies!]:
-examine clinics or single villages at one (or at most
two) points in time,
-look at individual or village as unit of analysis but
not larger scale
-conceptualize risk and behavior as individual
(hand washing/water boiling?) or group
(municipal water source?) but not
interdependent (influence of neighboring town)
4. Traveling across scales: Some
challenges for single-village and life
history accounts
Environmental and social changes:
spread across a landscape
vary in intensity and velocity
cause varied human responses
require systems thinking
5. A challenge for ethnographic accounts
Pathogens move with (inside or on) human
bodies, but also move through direct human
contact, animal vectors, and environmental
reservoirs such as water or food.
6. A challenge for epidemiological accounts
Epidemiologists glancing ‘upwards’ in scale worry that,
by omitting information about the landscape over
which epidemiological dynamics unfold, perhaps their
models are after all ‘importantly wrong’.
…Likewise, as we peer ‘downwards’, we are increasingly
convinced that heterogeneity documented at the level
of the individual or gene locus is necessary to capture
the broader-scale epidemiological pattern.”
(Matthews and Haydon 2007:763)
“Cross-scale influences on epidemiological dynamics: from genes to
ecosystems.”
9. Disease transmission is individual and communal
Epidemiologic research faces
both genetic and
sociocultural frontiers:
strain typing of
pathogens must
accompany network
descriptions of
populations
10. Road as prompt
(But could also be railroads, canals,
pipelines, power lines)
11. How do roads “work” to influence
disease transmission?
13. Road construction: product of political decisions &
resource availability.
Roads influence interactions between humans, hosts,
and environment, leading to pathogen transmission
and disease.
How?
- changes in water quality,
- Demography,
- and networks of human populations,
- and availability of goods and services.
19. Environmental Change and Diarrheal
Disease in Northern Ecuador
How new roads affect the transmission of diarrheal
pathogens in rural coastal Ecuador
Road access unevenly distributed across a region produces
conditions of a natural experiment
Relationship between environmental change and disease can
be observed (easily?) and systematically.
Study Design
15+ year longitudinal study at village level
Twice yearly case-control studies within
each of 21 [now 24] villages, and
commercial center, Borbón.
J. Eisenberg, Epidemiology, Michigan J. Trostle, Anthropology, Trinity
20. With thanks to:
Institutions
Centro de Biomedicina UCentral
Universidad San Francisco
University of Michigan
*Joseph Eisenberg
Trinity College
*James Trostle
Emory University
Karen Levy
Ministerio de Salud Pública
*Asociación de Promotores
Field team
Betty Corozo
Andrés Acevedo
Carmen Campaña
Karina Ponce
Jeanneth Yépez
Simón Quimi
Junior Mina
Ana Estupiñan
Maritza Rentería
Geovanny Hurtado
Denys Tenorio
Liliana Requene
José Ortiz
The Local Communities
Quito team
*William Cevallos
*Gabriel Trueba
Elizabeth Falconi
Pablo Endara
Nadia Veira
Rosana Segovia
Patricio Rojas
Maria Eloisa Hashin
Deisy Parrales
Manuel Baldeón
Nancy Castro
Funding from NIH (NIAID)
and NSF (EEID)
23. Connects villages in three river
drainages:
Onzole, Cayapas, Santiago
21 villages, ~4200 inhabitants in
June, 2003
36% illiterate (self-report)
89% Afro-Ecuadorian
7% Mestizo
<1% Chachi
The 21 villages are categorized by
river basin (Santiago, Cayapas,
Onzole, Bajo Borbón, road)
and remoteness (close,
medium, far)
1996-2002 road construction links the S. Colombian
border and Andes with the Ecuadorian coast
26. Assembling evidence about relationships between
road-related “development” and disease
Demography
Geography
Sociology/anthro (networks)
Ethnography
Epidemiology
Microbiology
27.
28. Environmental Change and Diarrheal Disease
in Northern Ecuador: Study Components
Mapping & GIS
(once per yr)
Villages, houses in relation
to roads/rivers, rainfall/temp
4 Network surveys
(sociometric)
(2003-4, 2007, 2010,
2013)
Counting & mapping social
contacts in all villages
A
B
29. Study Components
Active disease
surveillance (weekly)
2003-2007, 2011-14
Village cohort study
Case/control study
( twice per year)
Risk within villages
Microbiology (throughout)
Analysis of marker pathogens
30. Study Components
Census (once per year)
Population change,
migration
Ethnography
(throughout)
Behavior, context, meaning,
causal inference
37. Remoteness and Disease
E. coli
(Bacteria)
Rotavirus
(Virus)
Giardia
(Protozoa)
Diarrhea
(All Causes)
Remote 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Medium 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.8
Close 3.9 4.1 1.6 1.8
Continuous 8.4 4.0 1.9 2.7
(Estimates by village were adjusted for age of individual,
population of village, sanitation level, and climate)
Eisenberg et al., PNAS, 2006
40. Demographic changes
Tendencies by remoteness:
More mestizos in near communities (12%) than far ones
(4%)
Shorter duration of village residence in near communities
(13 years) than far ones (21 years)
43. Food-sharing Networks in a Road (A)
and Remote (B) village (2004)
Trostle et al. Epidemiology 2008
A B
44. Social Support Networks [with whom can you
discuss important things?] in a Road (A) and
Remote (B) village (2007)
Village A: 306 nodes
11 components + isolates
Village B: 327 nodes
5 components + isolates
A B
45. Causal Model of Transmission
Potential
From close to medium to remote villages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
Remoteness
%LeavingVillage
Decreased reintroduction of
pathogens from outside of
regions?
Increased social solidarity
and political strength?
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
Remoteness
Degree
46. Case Study 1A: The Complex
Relevance of Social Networks to
Disease Transmission
Human systems (food/economic resource/social
support networks) create different environments
for the possible transmission of pathogens.
Food-borne pathogens may spread more readily in
dense food-sharing networks; but host resistance
and prevention may be higher in dense social
support networks.
These (social) environments vary with remoteness.
(Trostle et al. 2008, Zelner et al. 2012)
47. “Ask when – not just whether - it’s a risk: How
regional context influences local causes of
diarrheal disease” (Goldstick et al, AJE 2014)
– Four years of active surveillance data across 21
villages
– Markov chain model where state of village k (high,
medium or low diarrheal rates) at time t depends
on the state of the 21 villages at time t-1.
Villages are weighted using a gravity model (distance and
size)
Ecological Perspective: Regional Transmission
Case study 2
48. The incidence of diarrhea in neighboring villages
affects the risks in your village
Casesof
diarrhea
When neighboring villages
have little diarrhea, treating
the water is beneficial
Water treatment
Neighbor
village
Your
village
Neighbor
village
Lots of
diarrhea
Little
diarrhea
49. Water treatment
The incidence of diarrhea in neighboring villages
affects the risks in your village
When neighboring villages
have lots of diarrhea, treating
the water is not as effective
Casesof
diarrhea
Neighbor
village
Your
village
Neighbor
village
Lots of
diarrhea
Little
Diarrhea
51. Ecological Perspective: Regional Transmission
Case study 2
• Risk factors are often characterized as static
– But they may vary by social and biological
contexts
– Need to shift question from: ‘is variable X a
risk?’ to ‘when (under what conditions ) is
variable X a risk?’
• Environmental transport vs. human movement
52.
53. Ecological Perspective: Climate
Case study 3
Social and environmental contexts modify the
effect of extreme rainfall on diarrhea
incidence in Northern Coastal Ecuador
(Carlton et al, 2013)
Four years of active surveillance data: 21 villages
Four years of climate data: 4 villages
Environmental variables:
Climate (total rainfall)
Infrastructure (water + sanitation)
Behavior (hygiene)
Social capital/cohesion
54. Ecological Perspective: Climate
Case study 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Diarrheaincidence(casesper1,000person-weeks)
02/04 05/04 08/04 11/04 02/05 05/05 08/05 11/05 02/06 05/06 08/06 11/06 02/07 05/07
Outcome: Diarrhea
Weekly visits to households over 4 years
56. Ecological Perspective: Climate
and Rainfall
Case study 3
Conclusion/Interpretation
Water flows
Under dry conditions extreme rain events increases risk
Flushes contamination buildup from soil to water
Under wet conditions extreme rain events decrease risk
Further dilutes pathogens
Behavior flows
Water treatment can counteract increases in risk during
dry period
Water treatment is required to realize protective effect
during wet periods.
58. How do social dynamics interact with hydrodynamics to
drive patterns of waterborne diseases?
• Based on this understanding, what are the consequences of a more variable and
changing climate?
Data: GI illness data, surface water quality/dynamics, social structure/dynamics
59. In-channel
Flows
Overbank Flows Runoff Hydrological
Networks
Social Cohesion
Socio-behavioral
Dynamics
Social
Transitions
Social Networks
Village 1 Village 2
62. Components of the social environment
influencing disease risk
• Demographic changes
– Migration
– Movement patterns
• Social cohesion
– Social network degree
• Outside contacts
• Social capital
• Infrastructure
– Sanitation
– Hygiene
– Water projects
63. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change
68. Models, including agent-based simulations, can be
used to study systems
• Can incorporate & investigate:
• Heterogeneity and
stochasticity
• Population-level (emergent)
outcomes from individual-level
behaviors and objectives
• Multiple scales and context-
specific details
• Our model analyses will
explore:
• Relative impact of different climate
conditions on adaptation decision-
making
• Relationship between vulnerability and
disease outcomes
• Alternative functions for combining
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity
• Relationship between social
environment and disease
transmission
• For example, Human movement
patterns, environmental cues (e.g.,
flood or drought conditions) and
diarrheal disease
69. Some methodological challenges:
Different rhythms of data collection
(periodicity and duration of measurement)
Different rhythms of analysis (movement and
serotype analysis)
Challenge of “thick description” of ecology or
systems
70. Are there necessary limits to interdisciplinary
work of this type? What are they?
cost?
complexity?
time?
71. Conclusions
Natural experiments as opportunity for many
disciplines
Road as transect and system
provocation/perturbation
Many types/levels of “social” data
Challenges of measuring diverse flows
Challenges of integrating methods and
disseminating results
73. Local presentations
Presentations/discussions for:
Village assemblies in all study villages
Local hospital and community epidemiology
program employees (Borbon)
Provincial Ministry of Health (Esmeraldas)
National Ministry of Health (Quito)
Public and private universities in Quito (FLACSO,
U Central, USFQ)
74. Degree training (* = Ecuador)
2015. Stephanie Garcia. “Unidos Somos Más.”An exploration of social cohesion as a time-dependent variable in San Miguel and Telembí,
two Afro-Ecuadorian villages in Esmeraldas, Ecuador. BA Honor’s Thesis, Anthropology.
2011. Jennifer Jimenez, Cathya Solano (Independent Studies) Anthropology, Trinity College.
2009. Katherine J. Connors. Environmental Change and Infectious Disease: How Road Access Affects the Transmission of Dengue Fever in
Rural Ecuador. MPH Thesis, Epidemiology. University of Michigan.
2008. Cristina S. Wheeler Castillo. Measurement of Socioeconomic Position and its Health Implications in Rural Ecuador.
BA thesis in International Health Studies, Trinity College. (Winner of the Grossman Senior Research Prize for Global Studies.)
2008. Owen Solberg. Population Genetic Diversity of Two Pathogens and the Role of Balancing Selection in HLA Immunogenetics.Chapter 1:
Molecular epidemiology of group A rotavirus in Ecuador. Ph.D., Integrative Biology . U.C. Berkeley.
*2007. Rosana Segovia. Evidence of Horizontal Gene Transfer of Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Communities with Limited Access to Antibiotics
MS Thesis, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
* 2007. Eloisa Hasing. Sudden Replacement of Rotaviral Genotype G9 in Ecuador. MS Thesis, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
* 2007. Patricio Rojas. Genotypes of Enterotoxigenic E. coli in Ecuadorian Remote Communities.
MS Thesis, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
* 2007. Dimitri Kakabadse. Conjugative Transference of Antibiotic Resistance in E. coli Isolates from Esmeraldas Province
BS Thesis, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
2007. Karen Levy. Environmental Drivers of Water Quality and Waterborne Disease in the Tropics with a Particular Focus in Northern Coastal
Ecuador. Ph.D. in Environmental Science, Policy, and Management. U.C. Berkeley.
2007. Marylin Rodriguez. Migración urbana en la costa de Ecuador: Tradiciones de salud en transición. (Urban migration on the
Ecuadorian coast: Health traditions in transition.)
BA honor's thesis, Trinity College, International Studies and Hispanic Studies.
* 2006. Pablo Endara. High Prevalence of P[8]G9 Rotavirus in Remote Coastal Communities of Ecuador.
MS in Microbiology, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
* 2006. Nadia Vieira. High prevalence of Enteroinvasive Escherichia coli isolated in a remote region of northern coastal Ecuador.
MS in Microbiology, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
* 2006. Patricio Bueno. Analisis Microbiologico del Agua de la Parroquia Borbon, Canton Eloy Alfaro y su Asociacion con la Enfermedad
Diarreica. BS, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
2005. Sarah Bates. The relevance of social and geographic structures to disease transmission in rural Ecuador.
MS in Health, Environment, and Development, U.C. Berkeley School of Public Health
* 2005. Sonya Ontoneda.
MS in Microbiology, Universidad San Francisco de Quito.
2004. Betsy Cowan. The Social World of a Road in Northwest Ecuador. B.A. Honor’s Thesis, Anthropology, Trinity College.
75.
76. Social connectedness can inhibit disease
transmission: Social organization, cohesion, village
context and infection risk in rural Ecuador. Jon Zelner,
James Trostle, Jason Goldstick, James House, and Joseph NS Eisenberg
77. Media outreach (to newspapers, television,
internet) www.sph.umich.edu/scr/ecodess/home.php