NBIC(S) 2.0 = Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-Social pronounced "Nib-Iks-Two-Oh" Mike Roco Bill Bainbridge NSF

1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
IBM Centennial Icon of Progress
Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com
Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward OF THE
(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) NBIC(S) 2.0
Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2
Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012
© 2012 IBM Corporation

2. Today’s Talk
 What’s NBIC(S) 2.0?
– Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”
– Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social?
– A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”)
– What has changed in 10 years?
• Social Media & Business (Collaborate)
• 3D Printing (Even More Real Now)
• Google Glasses (WorldBoard)
• Drones (Telerobotics)
 What’s next?
– Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days
– Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving
– Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back
– Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx
– Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds
– Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.
 What’s important?
– Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.)
– Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience
– Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes)
– Education: T-shaped people
2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

3. NBIC(S)2
Social
http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf
3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

4. Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet
Watson Jeopardy!
Cloud Computing, Analytics
Service Science
Social Business
CyberSecurity…
IBM title
Google & Apple
Microsoft
WordPress
LinkedIn
Twitter
HP, Oracle, SAP,
Facebook,
Etc., etc.
4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

5. Accelerating Change 2004
50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of
information (created by people) into larger networks
3.00E+17
Growth rates for:
2.50E+17
2.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second
1.50E+17
transistors
1.00E+17
Bio: Gene sequenced per second,
Cell divisions observed per second,
5.00E+16
fMRI regions scanned per second
0.00E+00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
About 10 billion transistors made per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
in 2004, doubling each 18 months
Worldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second
ICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and
Cognitive Science
by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)
5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

6. Accelerating Change 2004
200 year view: Services dominate
Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size
(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)
A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004
Labor A G S delta S United States
China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture:
Value from
harvesting nature
India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods:
Value from
making products
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services:
Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing,
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things
Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway,
driven by urbanization,
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
global communications,
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.
6 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

7. Accelerating Change 2004
Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Human System Tool System
Service provider helps The choice to
the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices
of it for them (incentives) (tool)
(in a custom way)
requires answering
Z
1 2 four key questions:
Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value)
- Can we? (Technology)
the client by doing all Delegate Automate
of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance)
(in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities)
3 4
Incent People Harness Nature
(Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)
Example: Call Centers
Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate
(1970) (1980) (2000) (2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system
Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing
by Thierry Bardini
“Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”
7 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

8. Accelerating Change 2004
Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
 FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are
Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow”
http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all
…Detective story from a family with
inferences are shallow”
slurred speech to genes that influence
 Relationship oriented computing tools
brain development and enable speech
Amazon – Recommendation system
(Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics,
embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system
anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking
The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs
Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold
and the Brain
by Terrence W. Deacon
Open Innovation The Cathedral &
by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar
by Eric S. Raymond
8 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

9. Accelerating Change 2004
WorldBoard
Collaborate (continued)
Connections
by James Burke
Six Degrees: The Science
of a Connected Age
by Duncan J. Watts
Emergence: The Connected
Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities,
and Software
by Steven Johnson
9 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

10. Accelerating Change 2004
Augment: Telerobotics
Doctor: United States Patient: France
First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001
Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds
Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us
by Rodney Brooks
“The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-
presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will
not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for
many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor
economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)
10 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

11. Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
Delegate: Outsourcing
60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
Measure freedom Measure money
Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree:
Understanding Globalization
by Amartya Sen
by Thomas L. Friedman
1998 Nobel Prize
Winner Economics
11 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

12. Accelerating Change 2004
Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)
BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull
regenerates better with a new
bone-promoting scaffold (left)
than with a less-sophisticated
Printing Organs
scaffold (right).
F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich
“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone
crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of
PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping
material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted
this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block,
and then let the engine run for about 80 hours
to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype
filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases
containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets
combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics
except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear
to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould
Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and
Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling
by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham
12 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

13. What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0?
– Energy 2.0:
• 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days
– Manufacturing 2.0:
• Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving
– Agriculture 2.0:
• Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back
– Education 2.0:
• Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX &
TEDx
– Life 2.0:
• CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds
– Smart 2.0
• SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.
13 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

14. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly
China Broad Group:
30 Stories in 15 Days
14 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

15. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service
Ryan Chin:
Urban Mobility
15 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

16. Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:
Test “Driver”
16 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

17. City challenge: buildings and transportation
Ryan Chin:
Smart Cities
17 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

18. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:
Senseable Cities
18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

19. Universities key to regions
Nation
 Three Streams State/Province
City/Metro
– Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE
Job Creator/Sustainer
– Create knowledge Cultural &
Conference
University
Hospital
Medical
College
Hotels Research
K-12
– Apply knowledge
to co-create value Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
 Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
– Development
Third Stream is about U-BEEs =
– Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial
Ecosystems
19 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

20. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:
Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worlds
http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Innovations Nation
Universities/ “The future is already
State/Province here (at universities),
Regions City/Region
Calculus (Cambridge/UK)
For-profits
it is just not evenly
Physics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEE
Computer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”
Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/Sustainer
Yahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital
Cultural & University
Google (Stanford/CA) Medical
Conference College
Facebook (Harvard/CA) Research
Hotels K-12
“The best way to
Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
predict the future
is to (inspire the next
generation of students
to) build it better.”
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City
20 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

21. Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important
% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)
9
Japan
8
7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534
R² = 0,719 China
6 Germany
5
France
4 United Kingdom
Italy
%
G
D
o
b
P
a
g
l
3
Russia Brazil Spain
Canada
2 India
Mexico South Korea Australia
Turkey Netherlands
1
Sweden
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% top 500 universities
21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

22. What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0
– Theory is important (object of study)
• Whole Service Systems
– individuals, family, cities, etc.
• Measures
– Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience
– Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities)
• Balance WTA & IWL policies
• global grand challenges, X-Prizes
• Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link
– Quality-of-Life focus is important
• QoLife =
– QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent)
• Education
– T-shaped people
– Breadth and depth
• Universities
– Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value
– Rankings “should” change more (for equity)
22 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

23. Four measures
 Innovativeness
 Equity
 Sustainability
 Resiliency
23 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

24. T-shaped professionals
depth & breadth
Many cultures
Many disciplines
Many systems
(understanding & communications)
BREADTH
Deep in one discipline
Deep in one system
Deep in one culture
DEPTH
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
24
24 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

25. Accelerating Change 2004
Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline to
accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work
innovations
Industry-Academic-
Government
Collaboration Needed
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com)
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr

26. Accelerating Change 2004
Today’s Talk
 Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing?
12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture
12,000 year view – rise in human population
200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services –
what’s that all about?
 Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting?
Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy
Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services
Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy
Emergence of Service Science discipline
 Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?
From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe)
Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)
26 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

27. Accelerating Change 2004
Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change
 What’s really changing?
 12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture
 12,000 year view – rise in human population
 200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing
called services
– what’s that all about?
27 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

28. Accelerating Change 2004
12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating change
Billion Years Ago Natural Capabilities Generations Ago Human Capabilities
12 Big Bang (EMST) 100,000 Speech
11.5 Milky Way (Atoms) 750 Agriculture
8 Sun (Energy) 500 Writing
4.5 Earth (Molecules) 400 Libraries
3.5 Bacteria (Cell) 40 Universities
2.5 Sponge (Body) 24 Printing
0.7 Clams (Nerves) 16 Accurate Clocks
0.5 Trilobites (Brains) 5 Telephone
0.2 Bees (Swarms) 4 Radio
0.065 Mass Extinctions 3 Television
0.002 Humans 2 Computer
Tools & Clans 1 Internet/e-Mail
Coevolution
0 GPS, DVD, WDM
Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century
by Howard Bloom
28 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

29. Accelerating Change 2004
12,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people
200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm
Information Technologies, etc.
Scientific Method, Industrialization
Colonial Expansion & Economics,
Rise of the modern managerial firm
& Politics, Education, Healthcare &
Effects of Agriculture,
The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business
by Alfred Dupont Chandler
29 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

30. Accelerating Change 2004
Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?
 Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy
 Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)
 Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless”
economy
 Emergence of Service Science discipline
30 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

31. Accelerating Change 2004
200 year view: Services dominate
Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size
(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)
A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004
Labor A G S delta S United States
China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture:
Value from
harvesting nature
India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods:
Value from
making products
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services:
Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing,
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things
Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway,
driven by urbanization,
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
global communications,
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.
31 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

32. Accelerating Change 2004
Services in an economy drive up human capability growth
Developing nations that invest in government services, health and education
services, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,
communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their service
economy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doing
valuable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom)
Example: medical, legal,
and IT work in India Extractive
Sector
Business Consumer
Services
Financial & information
Professional & business
Infrastructure Trade
Services Services
Transportation & warehousing Wholesale & retail
Utilities & communication
Public Social/personal
Administration Education & healthcare Services
Manufacturing Leisure & hospitality
Government Sector Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY
Development as Freedom 1998 Nobel Prize
by Amartya Sen Winner Economics
32 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

33. Accelerating Change 2004
Business of production (Solow’s model)
 Production is measure of results or “goals achieved”
Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker
(K) and investment per worker (I)
Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates
over time as capital assets
Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people
throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I
 Innovation impact will be realized in terms of…
More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services
More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services
More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services
Growth Theory: An Exposition
by Robert M. Solow
33 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

34. Accelerating Change 2004
IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth
 Worldwide IT spend
36% Financial and Information Services
13% Government
9% Retail and Wholesale
8% Professional and Business Services
(20% manufacturing)
 US CAGR in Labor Productivity
4.4% Financial and Information Services
3.8% Government
3.8% Retail and Wholesale
2.9% Professional and Business Services
(1.4% manufacturing)
Source: Gartner WW IT Spend
Industry Report (December 2003)
34 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

35. Accelerating Change 2004
Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value Growth
Economic Commodity Packaged Commodity Consumer Business
Offering Goods Goods Services Services++ Services++
Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation
Economic Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value
Function growth
Nature of Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual
Offering
Key Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth
Attribute relationship
Method of Stored in Inventory of Delivered Reveal over Sustained over time
Supply Bulk product On Demand duration
Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator
Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator
Factors of Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities
Demand (Cultural Values)
Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170.
The Experience Economy
by B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore
35 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

36. Accelerating Change 2004
What you may not know… IBM led in the creation of
Computer Science departments at universities
Now IBM is working to
Establish Service Science
The biggest costs were in changing the organization.
One way to think about these changes is to treat the
Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset.
Firms make investments over time in developing a new
process, rebuilding their staff or designing a new
organizational structure, and the benefits from these
Investments are realized over a long period of time.”
Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”
36 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

37. Accelerating Change 2004
Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:
The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture
1. Service Engineering 1990-2004 1900-1960 14. Computer &
2. Service Operations Process: Information Technology Information Sciences
3. Service Management 15. Management of
Innovation
4. Service Marketing
16. Organization Theory
5. Social Complexity 14 17. Operations Research
6. Agent-based comput-
18. Systems Engineering
ational economics 28
7. Computational 21 18 19. Management Science
Organization Theory 10 20. Game Theory
1 11
8. Human Capital 5 21. Industrial Engineering
Management (HCM) 13
7 3 2 17 22. Marketing
9. Experimental 6 4 23. Managerial
Economics
8 12 15 Psychology
10. AI & Games
16 27 9 25 22 24. Business
11. Management of 24 Administration (MBA)
Information Systems
People: 23 19 Capital: 25. Economics
12. Computer Supported 20 Business 26. Law
Collab. Work (CSCW) Organizational 26
13. Human Performance Culture Decisions 27. Sociology
Tech. & Measurement
1960-1990 Before 1900 28. Education
37 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

38. Accelerating Change 2004
Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?
 From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new
paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address
complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart
enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with
capabilities)
 Work evolution
Improved collaboration (communications & coordination)
Improved augmentation (tools)
Improved delegation (outsourcing)
Improved automation (self service)
38 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

39. Accelerating Change 2004
Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Human System Tool System
Service provider helps The choice to
the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices
of it for them (incentives) (tool)
(in a custom way)
requires answering
Z
1 2 four key questions:
Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value)
- Can we? (Technology)
the client by doing all Delegate Automate
of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance)
(in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities)
3 4
Incent People Harness Nature
(Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)
Example: Call Centers
Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate
(1970) (1980) (2000) (2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system
Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing
by Thierry Bardini
“Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”
39 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

40. Accelerating Change 2004
Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
 FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are
Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow”
http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all
…Detective story from a family with
inferences are shallow”
slurred speech to genes that influence
 Relationship oriented computing tools
brain development and enable speech
Amazon – Recommendation system
(Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics,
embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system
anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking
The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs
Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold
and the Brain
by Terrence W. Deacon
Open Innovation The Cathedral &
by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar
by Eric S. Raymond
40 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

41. Accelerating Change 2004
WorldBoard
Collaborate (continued)
Connections
by James Burke
Six Degrees: The Science
of a Connected Age
by Duncan J. Watts
Emergence: The Connected
Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities,
and Software
by Steven Johnson
41 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

42. Accelerating Change 2004
Augment: Telerobotics
Doctor: United States Patient: France
First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001
Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds
Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us
by Rodney Brooks
“The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-
presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will
not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for
many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor
economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)
42 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

43. Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
Delegate: Outsourcing
60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
Measure freedom Measure money
Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree:
Understanding Globalization
by Amartya Sen
by Thomas L. Friedman
1998 Nobel Prize
Winner Economics
43 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

44. Accelerating Change 2004
Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)
BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull
regenerates better with a new
bone-promoting scaffold (left)
than with a less-sophisticated
Printing Organs
scaffold (right).
F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich
“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone
crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of
PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping
material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted
this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block,
and then let the engine run for about 80 hours
to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype
filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases
containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets
combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics
except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear
to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould
Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and
Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling
by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham
44 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

45. Accelerating Change 2004
In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…
45 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

46. Accelerating Change 2004
In the service economy, work changes rapidly…
Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work.
Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations.
Science Technology Business
New Products & Services drive Business
Tech underlies new Products & Services
Science produces Data, drives Info Tech
Group (outside) Social Science, Financial
Economics, Services, Legal,
Org. Behavior Insurance,
Government
Individual Cognitive Education,
(inside/outside) Science Communication
Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare,
Public
Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare,
Industrial
Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare,
Distribution
46 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

47. Accelerating Change 2004
Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in
the reconfigurations space…
Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market.
Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is
important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases.
Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economics
are potential future directions.
36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)
47 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

48. Accelerating Change 2004
Emergence of Service Science
Understand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy
 Economic goals at three levels
1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year
Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc.
2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year
Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc.
3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time
Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of
work experience.
 Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute
1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply
2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs
3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy
4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave
 The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service science
Historically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for
particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries?
Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational
culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors.
As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not
simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.
48 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

49. Accelerating Change 2004
A Preliminary Definition of Service Science
 Service Science is the study of business methods to create
and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer
processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and People
align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and Human & Organizational
efficiency in the performance of services work. Performance
(PIP = 1.1 to 10)
Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that
technology tools, business methods, and organizational
culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT.
The services industry must be viewed as a collection of Process
interacting systems, where the history of the systems Business Optimization,
(legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding Professional Services Automation
what should, can, may, and will happen next. (PIP = 1.1 to 4)
Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to
the business and efficiency means doing the work according
to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and
efficient performance.
Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) Capital
and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client Value Based Management
can each be individuals, organizations, or automated (PIP = 1.1 to 2)
systems.
PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance
49 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

50. Accelerating Change 2004
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
History of Technology Technology Projections
History of Work Coevolution Work Projections
History of Business Business Projections
Service Science
Industry Technology->process change
Academic (also regulations->process change)
Government Business->capital ROI change
Collaboration Work-> people and org. change
(also education->people change)
50 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

51. Accelerating Change 2004
EXTRA SLIDES
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com)
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr

52. Accelerating Change 2004
This talk…
 Is about accelerating innovation…
By improving technology and organizations and work
Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business-
technology-work innovations
 Is not about assessing risks…
 Is not about betting on the future...
Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in
the Age of the Machine
by Donald A. Norman
Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models
Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid
Action and World-Class Performance
by Haim Mendelson, Johannes Ziegler
Metric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.
52 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

53. Accelerating Change 2004
Risks – not today’s talk
 Privacy violations (social issues)
 Unequal access (social issues)
 Censorship (social issues)
 Mischief and crime (social issues)
 Environmental damage (systemic issues)
 Glitches and out of control (systemic issues)
 Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues)
 Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation,
intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues
associated with new technologies of all sorts
throughout the history of humans which is also
(incidentally) the history of technology & organizations)
The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our Midst
See NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott (stevet@oreilly.com)
(also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))
53 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

54. Accelerating Change 2004
Betting on the future – not today’s talk
 But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing
number of websites dedicated to betting on the future
 Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes
predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing
within the United States will have some form of technology
embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and
identification."
read the argument »
Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now”
Founder, Longbet.org
54 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

55. Accelerating Change 2004
What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system
 Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools)
Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously
Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy)
Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale
 Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been
driving what has been making things (humans) smarter
Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…
 Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has
been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution
Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom)
Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value)
Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses
 Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving
what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates
Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to
manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand
human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates
been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others
Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis
“Ethnosphere: It's really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions
brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanity's greatest legacy, embodying
everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”
55 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

56. Accelerating Change 2004
Business Implications: Three examples
 Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective labor
Our Bodies & Our Environment
Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)
 Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective labor
Our Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger)
Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)
 Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of labor
Our Thinking and Perception (Access to Information)
Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)
56 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

57. Accelerating Change 2004
Healthy
Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the
power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic
pathways, protein structures, etc.)
Personalized Dru e.g., Modafinil enhances
Pharmaceuticals gs
tr ea
tp
wakefulness and vigilance
he
no
typ
es
1.5 million proteins
alternative splicing turns interacting in complex
40,000 genes into 500,000 networks create hundreds of
messages millions of metabolic
pathways
DNA RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype
40,000 genes (approx.100 million post translational hundreds of millions of
bases) represent less than 3% of modification turns pathways influenced by the
the genome (approx. 3 billion 500,000 messages environment and stochastic
bases). The function of the into 1.5 million processes create 6 billion
remaining 97% remains elusive. proteins different individuals
Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created
a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology
drives the discovery of new lead compounds.
DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data
57 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

58. Accelerating Change 2004
Wealthy
Material Goods
 Environmentally friendly, sustainable production
 Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc.
 Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials
 Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant
 Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing
 Cars and Vehicles
 Roads
 Houses and Buildings
 Furniture and Appliances
 Foods
58 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

59. Accelerating Change 2004
Wise Access to information & better investment decisions
Semantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities
APPLICATIONS
Trillions of Calculations per Second
Learning Conversations
----------------------
100,000 Human Like Behavior
“HAL”
10,000 Predictive Modeling
1,000 Protein Folding
100 Nuclear Simulation
10
Chess Playing
1
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015
Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…
59 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

60. Accelerating Change 2004
50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of
information (created by people) into larger networks
3.00E+17
Growth rates for:
2.50E+17
2.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second
1.50E+17
transistors
1.00E+17
Bio: Gene sequenced per second,
Cell divisions observed per second,
5.00E+16
fMRI regions scanned per second
0.00E+00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
About 10 billion transistors made per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
in 2004, doubling each 18 months
Worldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second
ICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and
Cognitive Science
by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)
60 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

61. Accelerating Change 2004
Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside Framework
Nature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric?
Relative Position Capability Areas
External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics
Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals
Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed
Mediators - Tools
External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools
Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods
Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors
Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old
Genes – New Species, Devel. Process
Outside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures.
61 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

62. Accelerating Change 2004
Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & Future
How much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?
 - 100,000 Generations: Speech
New Species (Kind of Agent)
New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)
 - 500 : Writing
New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)
 - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing
New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)
 - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)
 - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet
New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)
 -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
 +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)
New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)
 +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)
New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)
New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)
New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)
New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)
 +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)
New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)
Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright
62 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

63. Accelerating Change 2004
The evolution of business towards a services economy
(jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills)
U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector
100
90
80
70 Services (Info)
60
Services (Other)
50
40 Industry (Goods)
30 Agriculture
20
10
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement
The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March
Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand
63 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

64. Accelerating Change 2004
The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business”
Technology and business innovations are coevolving.
Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations.
Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.
Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities.
(see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up.
Characteristics of an on-demand e-business.
Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizations
by Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky
64 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

65. Accelerating Change 2004
On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.
The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices
Autonomic Virtualized
Integration
Open Standards
65 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

66. Accelerating Change 2004
Evolving Complexity and Interconnections
Social Technology
Grid Computing
Edge Computing IP-based Network Storage
Telematics
eGovernment Distr and SAN-wide File System
P-M IP WAN
Wireless Physician
Government SAN Mgmt
Life Sciences
Operational Risk (FSS) Metro
Rich Media
Industry Groups ASP Hosted Platform
Wireless LAN
PLM
eBiz Mgmt P-M-P High Performance Computing
eSourcing Storage Virtualization
Business Data Center
Procurement Services Multichannel Wireless
Utility CPG/CRM Mgmt Managed Storage Services M-M
Linux Clusters
P-P Unified Communications Cluster
Division Video Area Networks Policy-based Automation
Mobile Notes M-P-M Autonomic Storage
Rack eLiza
High Volume Linux Interconnects
Department DB2 Everywhere Media Appliance
High end Intel
Box Server Appliance
Pervasive/Mobile Computing
Server Blade Autonomic Client
Workgroup Devi ce Software
Board Wireless Client
Knowledge Mgmt M-P Broadband Game Photonics
Advanced Personal Chip
Person Identity Manager
Digital Video
eLearning Wireless 3G
66 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

67. Accelerating Change 2004
The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?
From the search for food to the search for information
Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)
Source: Pirolli (2002)
Energy Information
Max [ Energy
Time ] Max [
Useful info
Time ]
67 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

68. Accelerating Change 2004
Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge?
 Localized in a brain -- yours!
Remind: Capture history and augment memory
Remediate: Practice with simulation games
 Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too!
Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation)
Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration)
 In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others.
Research: Answer question the first time
Reflect: Ask question the first time
 Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no
one’s brain”
68 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

69. Accelerating Change 2004
Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric
 Knowledge in our minds is soft capability
 Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability
 Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability
 However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and
games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system
 Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can
estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal
given the cognitive capabilities of the system.
 How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?
 How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,
and execution performance?
Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human
Intelligence
by Andy Clark
“…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains
repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)
69 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

70. Accelerating Change 2004
Meta Trends: Exponential Growth
s
Moore's Law - Miniaturization - Continues
²Processing, Storage, ...
²Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
s
Metcalf's Law - Interconnection - Continues
²Value of a network increases as the square of the number
connections
s
Gilder's Law - Quantization - Continues
²Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months
s
Negraponte's "Law - Digitization - Emerges
²Superiority of "bits over atoms"
²Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas
are ultimate raw material
70 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

71. Accelerating Change 2004
Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment
Key Megashifts
Switching is shifting from circuits to packets.
Data, then voice; Backbone, then access
Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.
First long haul, then metro, then local access
Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.
IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net
Offerings are moving from products to services.
"Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge
Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico
First Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies
71 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

72. Accelerating Change 2004
The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence:
It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in
different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns)
System Encoding Processing Replicating
Nano Matter Atoms & Universe to Galactic, Solar,
(Nature) Molecules Atoms Planet Systems
Bio Life DNA Cells to Evolution
(Nature) Ecosystems
Cogno Thought Brains Neural Nets Evolution -
(Nature/Human) Culture
Coevolution
Socio Culture People Organizations Evolution -
(Human) Culture
Techno Technology Artifacts & Bits Computers Design-
(Human) Factories
Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination
Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection
72 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

73. Accelerating Change 2004
Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table!
Rita Colwell,
Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)
73 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

74. Accelerating Change 2004
IBM’s business is helping customers transform their
businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth
from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.
•Alternate providers
• IBM’s Industry Solutions
•IBM’s Customers
•IBM’s Services
•Services •Sales
(IGS) (S&D)
•Alternate vendors •IBM’s Partners
•IBM’s Platform
•Middleware/Software •PartnerWorld
(SWG) (Developer Relations)
•(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus)
•Boxes/Hardware
(Servers, Storage, Personal) •Finance (IGF)
•Chips/Technology •IBM Research
(IMD, TG)
IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM Ecosystem
Revenue: $80+ Billion/Year
Employees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-US
IBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries
74 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

75. IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services
TELL ME HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT
WHAT TO DO FOR ME
Accelerating Change 2004
Strategic
Business Innovation Services
Outsourcing
e-business Strategy Consulting Services
Industry Solutions
Outsourcing
Web Application & Integration Services
Application
Management
Integrated Technology Services e-business
e-business Infrastructure Hosting Services
Hardware Integration Alliances Colocation to
New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless Fully Managed
Services
Technical Support Services
e-sourcing
Learning Services
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com)
Learning Services
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr

76. Accelerating Change 2004
ODIS 101: On-Demand Innovation Services (ODIS) sets the stage for the next
generation researcher – one that is closely tuned with real-world client issues to
drive and validate innovations, technological-organizational-business
perspectives. Requires new academic collaborations beyond technological.
1970’s-80’s 80’s-90’s 90’s-00’s
Research
Focus Centrally Determined Collaborative Agenda Agenda Linked to
Corporate Issues Determined with Brands Client Issues Create
business
advantage
for clients
Some Joint Some
Researchers In the Lab Development with Researchers in
Clients theResearch in the
Marketplace
Centrally funded Joint programs marketplace On Demand
Innovation
IBM
Offering
Hardware Software Services
76 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

77. Accelerating Change 2004
IBM Research Worldwide
77 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

78. Accelerating Change 2004
Thanks for your attention.
Suggestions and ideas are welcome.
E-mail spohrer@almaden.ibm.com or
Jim Spohrer/Almaden/IBM.
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com)
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr