Jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0

Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno

IBM Centennial Icon of Progress

Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com
Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward OF THE
(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) NBIC(S) 2.0
Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2
Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012

© 2012 IBM Corporation

Today’s Talk
 What’s NBIC(S) 2.0?
– Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”
– Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social?
– A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”)
– What has changed in 10 years?
• Social Media & Business (Collaborate)
• 3D Printing (Even More Real Now)
• Google Glasses (WorldBoard)
• Drones (Telerobotics)

 What’s next?
– Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days
– Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving
– Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back
– Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx
– Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds
– Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.

 What’s important?
– Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.)
– Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience
– Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes)
– Education: T-shaped people

2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

NBIC(S)2

Social
http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf

Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet
Watson Jeopardy!
Cloud Computing, Analytics
Service Science
Social Business
CyberSecurity…

IBM title

Google & Apple
Microsoft
WordPress
LinkedIn
Twitter

HP, Oracle, SAP,
Facebook,
Etc., etc.


Accelerating Change 2004

50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of
information (created by people) into larger networks
3.00E+17
Growth rates for:
2.50E+17

2.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second
1.50E+17
transistors

1.00E+17
Bio: Gene sequenced per second,
Cell divisions observed per second,
5.00E+16
fMRI regions scanned per second
0.00E+00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

About 10 billion transistors made per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
in 2004, doubling each 18 months
Worldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second
ICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and
Cognitive Science
by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)

5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation


200 year view: Services dominate

Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size
(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)
A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004
Labor A G S delta S United States
China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture:
Value from
harvesting nature
India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods:
Value from
making products
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services:
Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing,
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things

Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway,
driven by urbanization,
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
global communications,
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.


Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Human System Tool System

Service provider helps The choice to
the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices
of it for them (incentives) (tool)
(in a custom way)
requires answering

Z
1 2 four key questions:

Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value)
- Can we? (Technology)
the client by doing all Delegate Automate
of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance)
(in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities)
3 4
Incent People Harness Nature
(Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)
Example: Call Centers

Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate
(1970) (1980) (2000) (2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system

Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing
by Thierry Bardini
“Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”



Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
 FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are
Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow”
http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all
…Detective story from a family with
inferences are shallow”
slurred speech to genes that influence
 Relationship oriented computing tools
brain development and enable speech
Amazon – Recommendation system
(Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics,
embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system
anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking

The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs
Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold
and the Brain
by Terrence W. Deacon

Open Innovation The Cathedral &
by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar
by Eric S. Raymond



WorldBoard
Collaborate (continued)

Connections
by James Burke

Six Degrees: The Science
of a Connected Age
by Duncan J. Watts

Emergence: The Connected
Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities,
and Software
by Steven Johnson


Augment: Telerobotics

Doctor: United States Patient: France

First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001
Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds

Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us
by Rodney Brooks
“The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-
presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will
not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for
many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor
economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)



http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
Delegate: Outsourcing

60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
Measure freedom Measure money

Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree:
Understanding Globalization
by Amartya Sen
by Thomas L. Friedman

1998 Nobel Prize
Winner Economics


Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)

BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull
regenerates better with a new
bone-promoting scaffold (left)
than with a less-sophisticated
Printing Organs
scaffold (right).
F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich

“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone
crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of
PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping
material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted
this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block,
and then let the engine run for about 80 hours
to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype
filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases
containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets
combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics
except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear
to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould

Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and
Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling
by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham

What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0?

– Energy 2.0:
• 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days
– Manufacturing 2.0:
• Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving
– Agriculture 2.0:
• Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back
– Education 2.0:
• Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX &
TEDx
– Life 2.0:
• CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds
– Smart 2.0
• SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.


Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly

China Broad Group:
30 Stories in 15 Days


Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service

Ryan Chin:
Urban Mobility


Self-driving cars

Steve Mahan:
Test “Driver”


City challenge: buildings and transportation

Ryan Chin:
Smart Cities


Cities: land-population-energy-carbon

Carlo Ratti:
Senseable Cities


Universities key to regions
Nation

 Three Streams State/Province
City/Metro
– Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE
Job Creator/Sustainer
– Create knowledge Cultural &
Conference
University
Hospital
Medical
College
Hotels Research
K-12
– Apply knowledge
to co-create value Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)

 Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
– Development
Third Stream is about U-BEEs =
– Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial
Ecosystems


Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:
Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worlds
http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056

Innovations Nation
Universities/ “The future is already
State/Province here (at universities),
Regions City/Region
Calculus (Cambridge/UK)
For-profits
it is just not evenly
Physics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEE
Computer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”
Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/Sustainer
Yahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital
Cultural & University
Google (Stanford/CA) Medical
Conference College
Facebook (Harvard/CA) Research
Hotels K-12
“The best way to
Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
predict the future
is to (inspire the next
generation of students
to) build it better.”

U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City

Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important
% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)
9

Japan
8

7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534
R² = 0,719 China
6 Germany

5
France

4 United Kingdom
Italy
%
G
D
o
b
P
a
g
l

3
Russia Brazil Spain
Canada
2 India
Mexico South Korea Australia
Turkey Netherlands
1
Sweden

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% top 500 universities


What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0
– Theory is important (object of study)
• Whole Service Systems
– individuals, family, cities, etc.
• Measures
– Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience
– Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities)
• Balance WTA & IWL policies
• global grand challenges, X-Prizes
• Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link
– Quality-of-Life focus is important
• QoLife =
– QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent)
• Education
– T-shaped people
– Breadth and depth
• Universities
– Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value
– Rankings “should” change more (for equity)


Four measures

 Innovativeness

 Equity

 Sustainability

 Resiliency


T-shaped professionals
depth & breadth

Many cultures
Many disciplines
Many systems
(understanding & communications)

BREADTH

Deep in one discipline

Deep in one system
Deep in one culture
DEPTH

(analytic thinking & problem solving)

24


Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline to
accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work
innovations

Industry-Academic-
Government
Collaboration Needed

November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com)
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr


Today’s Talk

 Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing?
12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture
12,000 year view – rise in human population
200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services –
what’s that all about?
 Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting?
Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy
Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services
Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy
Emergence of Service Science discipline
 Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?
From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe)
Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)



Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change

 What’s really changing?

 12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture

 12,000 year view – rise in human population

 200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing
called services
– what’s that all about?



12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating change
Billion Years Ago Natural Capabilities Generations Ago Human Capabilities
12 Big Bang (EMST) 100,000 Speech
11.5 Milky Way (Atoms) 750 Agriculture
8 Sun (Energy) 500 Writing
4.5 Earth (Molecules) 400 Libraries
3.5 Bacteria (Cell) 40 Universities
2.5 Sponge (Body) 24 Printing
0.7 Clams (Nerves) 16 Accurate Clocks
0.5 Trilobites (Brains) 5 Telephone
0.2 Bees (Swarms) 4 Radio
0.065 Mass Extinctions 3 Television
0.002 Humans 2 Computer
Tools & Clans 1 Internet/e-Mail
Coevolution
0 GPS, DVD, WDM

Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century
by Howard Bloom



12,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people
200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm
Information Technologies, etc.

Scientific Method, Industrialization
Colonial Expansion & Economics,

Rise of the modern managerial firm
& Politics, Education, Healthcare &

Effects of Agriculture,

The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business
by Alfred Dupont Chandler



Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?

 Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy

 Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)

 Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless”
economy

 Emergence of Service Science discipline



200 year view: Services dominate

Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size
(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)
A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004
Labor A G S delta S United States
China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture:
Value from
harvesting nature
India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods:
Value from
making products
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services:
Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing,
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things

Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway,
driven by urbanization,
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
global communications,
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.


Services in an economy drive up human capability growth
Developing nations that invest in government services, health and education
services, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,
communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their service
economy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doing
valuable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom)
Example: medical, legal,
and IT work in India Extractive
Sector
Business Consumer
Services
Financial & information
Professional & business
Infrastructure Trade
Services Services
Transportation & warehousing Wholesale & retail
Utilities & communication

Public Social/personal
Administration Education & healthcare Services
Manufacturing Leisure & hospitality
Government Sector Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY

Development as Freedom 1998 Nobel Prize
by Amartya Sen Winner Economics


Business of production (Solow’s model)

 Production is measure of results or “goals achieved”
Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker
(K) and investment per worker (I)
Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates
over time as capital assets
Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people
throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I
 Innovation impact will be realized in terms of…
More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services
More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services
More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services

Growth Theory: An Exposition
by Robert M. Solow


IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth

 Worldwide IT spend
36% Financial and Information Services
13% Government
9% Retail and Wholesale
8% Professional and Business Services
(20% manufacturing)

 US CAGR in Labor Productivity
4.4% Financial and Information Services
3.8% Government
3.8% Retail and Wholesale
2.9% Professional and Business Services
(1.4% manufacturing)

Source: Gartner WW IT Spend
Industry Report (December 2003)



Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value Growth
Economic Commodity Packaged Commodity Consumer Business
Offering Goods Goods Services Services++ Services++
Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation

Economic Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value
Function growth
Nature of Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual
Offering
Key Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth
Attribute relationship
Method of Stored in Inventory of Delivered Reveal over Sustained over time
Supply Bulk product On Demand duration
Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator

Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator

Factors of Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities
Demand (Cultural Values)
Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170.

The Experience Economy
by B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore



What you may not know… IBM led in the creation of
Computer Science departments at universities

Now IBM is working to
Establish Service Science

The biggest costs were in changing the organization.
One way to think about these changes is to treat the
Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset.
Firms make investments over time in developing a new
process, rebuilding their staff or designing a new
organizational structure, and the benefits from these
Investments are realized over a long period of time.”
Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”



Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:
The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture

1. Service Engineering 1990-2004 1900-1960 14. Computer &
2. Service Operations Process: Information Technology Information Sciences

3. Service Management 15. Management of
Innovation
4. Service Marketing
16. Organization Theory
5. Social Complexity 14 17. Operations Research
6. Agent-based comput-
18. Systems Engineering
ational economics 28
7. Computational 21 18 19. Management Science
Organization Theory 10 20. Game Theory
1 11
8. Human Capital 5 21. Industrial Engineering
Management (HCM) 13
7 3 2 17 22. Marketing
9. Experimental 6 4 23. Managerial
Economics
8 12 15 Psychology
10. AI & Games
16 27 9 25 22 24. Business
11. Management of 24 Administration (MBA)
Information Systems
People: 23 19 Capital: 25. Economics
12. Computer Supported 20 Business 26. Law
Collab. Work (CSCW) Organizational 26
13. Human Performance Culture Decisions 27. Sociology
Tech. & Measurement
1960-1990 Before 1900 28. Education



Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?

 From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new
paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address
complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart
enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with
capabilities)

 Work evolution
Improved collaboration (communications & coordination)
Improved augmentation (tools)
Improved delegation (outsourcing)
Improved automation (self service)



Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Human System Tool System

Service provider helps The choice to
the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices
of it for them (incentives) (tool)
(in a custom way)
requires answering

Z
1 2 four key questions:

Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value)
- Can we? (Technology)
the client by doing all Delegate Automate
of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance)
(in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities)
3 4
Incent People Harness Nature
(Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)
Example: Call Centers

Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate
(1970) (1980) (2000) (2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system

Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing
by Thierry Bardini
“Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”



Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
 FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are
Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow”
http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all
…Detective story from a family with
inferences are shallow”
slurred speech to genes that influence
 Relationship oriented computing tools
brain development and enable speech
Amazon – Recommendation system
(Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics,
embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system
anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking

The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs
Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold
and the Brain
by Terrence W. Deacon

Open Innovation The Cathedral &
by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar
by Eric S. Raymond



WorldBoard
Collaborate (continued)

Connections
by James Burke

Six Degrees: The Science
of a Connected Age
by Duncan J. Watts

Emergence: The Connected
Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities,
and Software
by Steven Johnson


Augment: Telerobotics

Doctor: United States Patient: France

First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001
Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds

Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us
by Rodney Brooks
“The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-
presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will
not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for
many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor
economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)



http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
Delegate: Outsourcing

60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
Measure freedom Measure money

Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree:
Understanding Globalization
by Amartya Sen
by Thomas L. Friedman

1998 Nobel Prize
Winner Economics


Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)

BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull
regenerates better with a new
bone-promoting scaffold (left)
than with a less-sophisticated
Printing Organs
scaffold (right).
F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich

“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone
crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of
PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping
material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted
this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block,
and then let the engine run for about 80 hours
to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype
filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases
containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets
combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics
except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear
to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould

Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and
Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling
by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham


In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…



In the service economy, work changes rapidly…
Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work.
Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations.

Science Technology Business

New Products & Services drive Business
Tech underlies new Products & Services
Science produces Data, drives Info Tech
Group (outside) Social Science, Financial
Economics, Services, Legal,
Org. Behavior Insurance,
Government
Individual Cognitive Education,
(inside/outside) Science Communication

Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare,
Public

Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare,
Industrial
Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare,
Distribution



Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in
the reconfigurations space…
Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market.
Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is
important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases.
Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economics
are potential future directions.

36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)



Emergence of Service Science
Understand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy

 Economic goals at three levels
1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year
Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc.
2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year
Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc.
3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time
Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of
work experience.

 Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute
1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply
2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs
3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy
4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave

 The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service science
Historically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for
particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries?
Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational
culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors.
As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not
simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.



A Preliminary Definition of Service Science
 Service Science is the study of business methods to create
and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer
processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and People
align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and Human & Organizational
efficiency in the performance of services work. Performance
(PIP = 1.1 to 10)
Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that
technology tools, business methods, and organizational
culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT.
The services industry must be viewed as a collection of Process
interacting systems, where the history of the systems Business Optimization,
(legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding Professional Services Automation
what should, can, may, and will happen next. (PIP = 1.1 to 4)
Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to
the business and efficiency means doing the work according
to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and
efficient performance.
Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) Capital
and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client Value Based Management
can each be individuals, organizations, or automated (PIP = 1.1 to 2)
systems.

PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance



History of Technology Technology Projections

History of Work Coevolution Work Projections

History of Business Business Projections
Service Science
Industry Technology->process change
Academic (also regulations->process change)
Government Business->capital ROI change
Collaboration Work-> people and org. change
(also education->people change)


EXTRA SLIDES



This talk…
 Is about accelerating innovation…
By improving technology and organizations and work
Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business-
technology-work innovations
 Is not about assessing risks…
 Is not about betting on the future...
Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in
the Age of the Machine
by Donald A. Norman
Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models

Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid
Action and World-Class Performance
by Haim Mendelson, Johannes Ziegler
Metric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.


Risks – not today’s talk
 Privacy violations (social issues)
 Unequal access (social issues)
 Censorship (social issues)
 Mischief and crime (social issues)
 Environmental damage (systemic issues)
 Glitches and out of control (systemic issues)
 Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues)
 Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation,
intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues
associated with new technologies of all sorts
throughout the history of humans which is also
(incidentally) the history of technology & organizations)

The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our Midst
See NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott (stevet@oreilly.com)
(also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))


Betting on the future – not today’s talk

 But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing
number of websites dedicated to betting on the future
 Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes
predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing
within the United States will have some form of technology
embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and
identification."
read the argument »

Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now”
Founder, Longbet.org



What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system
 Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools)
Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously
Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy)
Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale
 Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been
driving what has been making things (humans) smarter
Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…
 Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has
been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution
Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom)
Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value)
Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses
 Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving
what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates
Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to
manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand
human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates
been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others
Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis
“Ethnosphere: It's really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions
brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanity's greatest legacy, embodying
everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”


Business Implications: Three examples

 Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective labor
Our Bodies & Our Environment
Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)

 Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective labor
Our Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger)
Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)

 Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of labor
Our Thinking and Perception (Access to Information)
Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)



Healthy

Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the
power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic
pathways, protein structures, etc.)

Personalized Dru e.g., Modafinil enhances
Pharmaceuticals gs
tr ea
tp
wakefulness and vigilance
he
no
typ
es

1.5 million proteins
alternative splicing turns interacting in complex
40,000 genes into 500,000 networks create hundreds of
messages millions of metabolic
pathways

DNA RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype
40,000 genes (approx.100 million post translational hundreds of millions of
bases) represent less than 3% of modification turns pathways influenced by the
the genome (approx. 3 billion 500,000 messages environment and stochastic
bases). The function of the into 1.5 million processes create 6 billion
remaining 97% remains elusive. proteins different individuals
Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created
a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology
drives the discovery of new lead compounds.
DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data



Wealthy

Material Goods

 Environmentally friendly, sustainable production
 Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc.
 Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials
 Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant
 Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing
 Cars and Vehicles
 Roads
 Houses and Buildings
 Furniture and Appliances
 Foods



Wise Access to information & better investment decisions
Semantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities
APPLICATIONS
Trillions of Calculations per Second
Learning Conversations

----------------------
100,000 Human Like Behavior
“HAL”

10,000 Predictive Modeling

1,000 Protein Folding

100 Nuclear Simulation

10
Chess Playing
1
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015

Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…



50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of
information (created by people) into larger networks
3.00E+17
Growth rates for:
2.50E+17

2.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second
1.50E+17
transistors

1.00E+17
Bio: Gene sequenced per second,
Cell divisions observed per second,
5.00E+16
fMRI regions scanned per second
0.00E+00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

About 10 billion transistors made per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
in 2004, doubling each 18 months
Worldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second
ICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and
Cognitive Science
by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)



Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside Framework
Nature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric?

Relative Position Capability Areas
External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics
Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals
Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed
Mediators - Tools
External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools
Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods
Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors
Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old
Genes – New Species, Devel. Process

Outside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures.



Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & Future
How much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?
 - 100,000 Generations: Speech
New Species (Kind of Agent)
New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)
 - 500 : Writing
New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)
 - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing
New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)
 - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)
 - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet
New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)
 -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
 +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)
New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)
 +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)
New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)
New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)
New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)
New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)
 +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)
New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)

Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright


The evolution of business towards a services economy
(jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills)
U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector
100
90
80
70 Services (Info)
60
Services (Other)
50
40 Industry (Goods)
30 Agriculture
20
10
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement
The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March
Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand



The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business”
Technology and business innovations are coevolving.
Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations.
Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.
Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities.
(see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up.
Characteristics of an on-demand e-business.

Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizations
by Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky



On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.
The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices

Autonomic Virtualized

Integration
Open Standards



Evolving Complexity and Interconnections

Social Technology
Grid Computing
Edge Computing IP-based Network Storage
Telematics
eGovernment Distr and SAN-wide File System
P-M IP WAN
Wireless Physician
Government SAN Mgmt
Life Sciences
Operational Risk (FSS) Metro
Rich Media
Industry Groups ASP Hosted Platform
Wireless LAN
PLM
eBiz Mgmt P-M-P High Performance Computing
eSourcing Storage Virtualization
Business Data Center
Procurement Services Multichannel Wireless
Utility CPG/CRM Mgmt Managed Storage Services M-M
Linux Clusters
P-P Unified Communications Cluster
Division Video Area Networks Policy-based Automation
Mobile Notes M-P-M Autonomic Storage
Rack eLiza
High Volume Linux Interconnects
Department DB2 Everywhere Media Appliance
High end Intel
Box Server Appliance
Pervasive/Mobile Computing
Server Blade Autonomic Client
Workgroup Devi ce Software
Board Wireless Client
Knowledge Mgmt M-P Broadband Game Photonics
Advanced Personal Chip
Person Identity Manager
Digital Video
eLearning Wireless 3G



The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?
From the search for food to the search for information
Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)
Source: Pirolli (2002)

Energy Information

Max [ Energy
Time ] Max [
Useful info
Time ]


Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge?
 Localized in a brain -- yours!
Remind: Capture history and augment memory
Remediate: Practice with simulation games
 Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too!
Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation)
Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration)
 In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others.
Research: Answer question the first time
Reflect: Ask question the first time
 Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no
one’s brain”



Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric

 Knowledge in our minds is soft capability
 Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability
 Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability
 However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and
games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system
 Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can
estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal
given the cognitive capabilities of the system.
 How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?
 How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,
and execution performance?

Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human
Intelligence
by Andy Clark
“…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains
repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)


Meta Trends: Exponential Growth

s
Moore's Law - Miniaturization - Continues
²Processing, Storage, ...
²Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
s
Metcalf's Law - Interconnection - Continues
²Value of a network increases as the square of the number
connections
s
Gilder's Law - Quantization - Continues
²Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months
s
Negraponte's "Law - Digitization - Emerges
²Superiority of "bits over atoms"
²Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas
are ultimate raw material



Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment

Key Megashifts
Switching is shifting from circuits to packets.
Data, then voice; Backbone, then access
Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.
First long haul, then metro, then local access
Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.
IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net
Offerings are moving from products to services.
"Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge
Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico
First Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies



The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence:
It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in
different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns)
System Encoding Processing Replicating

Nano Matter Atoms & Universe to Galactic, Solar,
(Nature) Molecules Atoms Planet Systems

Bio Life DNA Cells to Evolution
(Nature) Ecosystems

Cogno Thought Brains Neural Nets Evolution -
(Nature/Human) Culture
Coevolution

Socio Culture People Organizations Evolution -
(Human) Culture

Techno Technology Artifacts & Bits Computers Design-
(Human) Factories

Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination
Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection


Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table!

Rita Colwell,
Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)


IBM’s business is helping customers transform their
businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth
from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.
•Alternate providers

• IBM’s Industry Solutions
•IBM’s Customers
•IBM’s Services
•Services •Sales
(IGS) (S&D)

•Alternate vendors •IBM’s Partners
•IBM’s Platform

•Middleware/Software •PartnerWorld
(SWG) (Developer Relations)
•(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus)

•Boxes/Hardware
(Servers, Storage, Personal) •Finance (IGF)
•Chips/Technology •IBM Research
(IMD, TG)

IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM Ecosystem
Revenue: $80+ Billion/Year
Employees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-US
IBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries

IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services

TELL ME HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT
WHAT TO DO FOR ME
Strategic
Business Innovation Services
Outsourcing
e-business Strategy Consulting Services
Industry Solutions
Outsourcing
Web Application & Integration Services
Application
Management

Integrated Technology Services e-business
e-business Infrastructure Hosting Services
Hardware Integration Alliances Colocation to
New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless Fully Managed
Services
Technical Support Services
e-sourcing

Learning Services
Learning Services


ODIS 101: On-Demand Innovation Services (ODIS) sets the stage for the next
generation researcher – one that is closely tuned with real-world client issues to
drive and validate innovations, technological-organizational-business
perspectives. Requires new academic collaborations beyond technological.

1970’s-80’s 80’s-90’s 90’s-00’s

Research
Focus Centrally Determined Collaborative Agenda Agenda Linked to
Corporate Issues Determined with Brands Client Issues Create
business
advantage
for clients
Some Joint Some
Researchers In the Lab Development with Researchers in
Clients theResearch in the
Marketplace
Centrally funded Joint programs marketplace On Demand
Innovation
IBM
Offering
Hardware Software Services



IBM Research Worldwide



Thanks for your attention.

Suggestions and ideas are welcome.
E-mail spohrer@almaden.ibm.com or
Jim Spohrer/Almaden/IBM.


Outline
 The Global Opportunity (IBM Perspective)
– 1000’s of Smarter Cities Projects
– Example: Rio De Janeiro
– Analytics, Cloud, Growth Markets, Universities
– Individuals & Institutions Learning Together
– T-Shaped People & Regional Smart Camp Entrepreneurs

 Smarter Planet = Smarter Human-Serving Systems
– Smarter Planet
• Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent
• Internet-of-Things, Cloud Computing, Analytics
– Quality-of-Life (QoL)
• Less waste in flows (energy, materials, etc.)
• More development of capabilities
• Better governance and decision-making

 Service Science, Service Systems & Measurement
– Service = applying knowledge to benefit others (value-cocreation)
– Service science studies human-serving systems (service systems)
– Service systems = configure individuals, infrastructure, institutions, information
– QoL matters, university & urban innovations matter to business & society
– Business Measures = Productivity, Quality, Compliance, Innovation
– Societal Measures = Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience


81 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2

An al yt i c s i s e n ab l i n g c l i e n t s wi t h t r u s t e d
an d r e l e van t i n f o r mat i o n i n REAL TI ME
• For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a
smarter outcome for organizations
• The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize
clients’ business
• Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010

Through to 2015,
more than 85% of
Fortune 500
organizations will fail
to exploit ‘big data’ for
competitive
advantage

--Gartner Predictions
2012


D e ve l o p i n g c ap ab i l i t i e s t h at i mp r o ve
vi s i b i l i t y, c o n t r o l an d au t o mat i o n o f c l o u d
c o mp u t i n g s e r vi c e s

IB MS m artC loud
Business Process as a Service
Software as a Service

Platform as a Service

Infrastructure as a Service

IB MS m artC loud IB MS m artC loud IB MS m artC loud
F o u n d ati o n S e rvi c e s S o lu ti o n s
Private & Hybrid Clouds Managed Cloud Services Cloud Business Solutions
Cloud Enablement technologies Infra & platform as a Service Software & Business Process
as a Service

Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems


C e n tral G re ate r
Au s trali a E as te rn Ch ina In d ia L ati n M i d d le E as t
N e w Z e alan d AS E AN E u ro p e G ro u p S o u th As i a K o re a Am e ri c a Afri c a
Brisbane Seoul Buenos Aires
Sydney Bandar Seri Begawan Sofia Chandigarh
Beijing Daejeon Daegu Cordoba
Auckland Jakarta Zagreb Luanda
Hong Kong Dehradun Kwangju Rosario
Perth Surabaya Prague Qatar
Taipei Delhi Pusan Rio de Janeiro
Adelaide Medan Brno Alexandria
Hefei Gurgaon Salvador
Hobart Makassar Ostrava Cairo
Xiamen Noida Fortalez
Ballarat Manila Tallinn Accra
Chongqing Jaipur Belo Horizonte
Melbourne Cebu Budapest Nairobi
Shanghai Lucknow Uberlandia
Wellington Chiangmai Almaty Casablanca
Beijing Guwahati Recife
Christchurch Bangkok Riga Port Louis
Tianjin Ahmedabad Curitiba
Lower Hutt Pattaya Vilnius Lagos
Fuzhou Indore Porto Alegre
DaNang Warsaw Karachi
Guangzhou Mumbai Campinas
Ho Chi Minh City Wroclaw Islamabad
Shenzhen Kolkata Joinville
Krakow Lahore
Nanjing Pune Anto fogasta
Gdansk Riyadh
Harbin Bhubaneshwar Medellin
Katowice Dakar
Shijiazhuang Hyderabad Cali
Poznan Johannesburg
Wuhan Vizag Guayaquil
Bucharest Pretoria
Zhengzou Bangalore Guadalajara
Timisoara Durban
Changsha Chennai Monterrey
Ufa Cape Town
Changchun Coimbatore Queretaro
Kazan Port Elizabeth
Nanning Kochi Lima
Rostov-on-Don Bloemfontein
Suzhou Nasik
Samara Dar es Salaam
Nanchang Colombo
Perm Tunis
Shenyang Dakkar
Novosibirrsk Abu Dhabi
Dalian
Krasnoyarsk Dubai
E s tab li s h e d Moscow
Taiyuah Ouangadougou
Qingdao
St Petersburg N’Djamena
p re s e n c e i n Ekaterinburg
Jinan Kinshasa
Xi’an
Belgrade Libreville
m an y Bratislava
Chengdu Accra
Urumchi
Banska Bystrica Lilongwe
G ro wth Kosice
Kunming Antananarivo
Hangzhou
Ljubljana Niamey
M ark e t Ankara
Ningbo Seychelles
Istanbul Freetown
c o u n tri e s ... Izmire Kampala
Dnepropetrovsk Lusaka
Kiev
Tashkent
85

Evo l vi n g r e g i o n al t al e n t & s k i l l s
IBM is making long term investments to develop talent for the growth markets
Government Global Placements & Collaboration with
Partnerships Mentoring Universities
Transferring knowledge and IBM works with 5,000 universities
By helping governments to and 10,000 faculties around the
establish new national expertise to the growth markets is
critical. One of the ways we do this globe. We have joint initiatives
research facilities, we are and investments with universities
helping to create new is to move experts into the market to
in Vietnam, Malaysia, India,
industries, helping to develop coach and train local teams. Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt,
long terms skills curriculums China and Africa to encourage
like SSME. the training of skills required.


Our Past, Present, Future:
Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together

TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION
Any Device Learning Primary
School In
div
idu
Secondary al s
PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS School Le
ar Workforce
Student-Centered Processes Higher
nin Skills
g
Education Co
nt
Continuing inu
KNOWLEDGE SKILLS Education um The
Learning Communities Educational
Intelligent Continuum
• Aligned Data u m
GLOBAL INTEGRATION • Outcomes Insight t inu
n
Services Specialization Instrumented Co Economic
in g Sustainability
• Student-centric
rn
• Integrated Assessment
L ea
ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT Interconnected io ns
• Shared Services t ut
ti
ns
Systemic View of Education • Interoperable Processes
I

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html

87 87 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation


Identifies entrepreneurs developing
businesses aligning with our Smarter
Planet vision.

SmartCamp finalists raised more than
$50m and received significant press in
Exclusive Networking and Wall Street Journal, Forbes and
Bloomberg
Mentoring event
-

Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012
Apply by April 27th

SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012
Apply by May 3rd

North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012
Apply by May 25th

apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
88

North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, eapse@us.ibm.com
University Programs lead: Dawn Tew, dawn2@us.ibm.com

What is Smarter Planet?
3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions)

INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT
We now have the ability People, systems and We can respond to changes
to measure, sense and objects can communicate quickly and accurately,
see the exact condition and interact with each and get better results
of practically everything. other in entirely new by predicting and optimizing
PRODUCTS ways.
IT NETWORKS COMMUNICATIONS
for future events.
WORKFORCE SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS


What improves Quality-of-Life?
Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations
* = US Labor % in 2009.

A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 20/10/10
1. Transportation & supply chain
2/7/4
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment2/1/1
7/6/1
3. Food & products manufacturing 1/1/0
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5/17/27
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)
B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
1/0/2
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 24/24/1
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
2/20/24
7/10/3 (wealthy) (21%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting
5/2/2
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)
3/3/1
C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 0/0/0
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
1/2/2
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
0/19/0
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”


Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress
(http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/)
Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008)

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions

Service Service Service Stakeholder The white paper offers
a starting point to -
Innovation Systems Science Priorities
Growth in service Customer-provider To discover the Education
GDP and jobs interactions that underlying
enable value principles of Skills Develop programmes
Service quality cocreation complex service & Mindset & qualifications
& productivity systems
Dynamic Research
Environmental configurations of Systematically Encourage an
Knowledge
friendly & resources: people, create, scale and interdisciplinary
& Tools approach
sustainable technologies, improve systems
organisations and
Urbanisation & information Foundations laid Business
aging population by existing Employment
Increasing scale, disciplines Develop and improve
& Collaboration
Globalisation & complexity and service innovation
technology drivers connectedness of Progress in
Government roadmaps, leading to a
service systems academic studies doubling of investment
Opportunities for and practical tools Policies in service education
businesses, B2B, B2C, C2C, & Investment and research by 2015
governments and B2G, G2C, G2G Gaps in knowledge
individuals service networks and skills

Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate
© 2012 IBM Corporation

US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges
A. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need
1. Transportation & Supply Chain
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech
Provide access to clear water
3. Food & Products
Manager nitrogen cycle
4. Energy & Electricity
Make solar energy economical
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
5. Information & Communication Technology
Enhance virtual reality
Secure cyberspace
Reverse engineer the brain

B. Systems that focus on human activity & development
6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)
Enhance virtual reality
8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting
9. Healthcare & Family Life
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse engineer the brain
10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship
Advance personalized learning
Engineer the tools of scientific discovery

C. Systems that focus on human governance
11. City & Security
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Secure cyberspace
Prevent nuclear terror
12. State/Region & Development
13. Nation & Rights


California Human Development Report 2011:
From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life….

http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf

Imagining quality-of-life innovations…


A Framework for Global Civil Society

 Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to
build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200
years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years
has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and
sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators,
incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and
understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil
society.
– John Sexton, President NYU


Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

 Upcoming Conferences
– July 2012
• ISSS San Jose
• HSSE San Francisco

 More Information
– Blog
• www.service-science.info
– Twitter
• @JimSpohrer
– Presentations
• www.slideshare.net/spohrer
– Email
• spohrer@us.ibm.com


Thank-You! Questions?

“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM
“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org
“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay
“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge
“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov
“Think global, act local.” – Geddes

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer
Innovation Champion &
Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WW
spohrer@us.ibm.com


Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization)

Criminals Government
Agents Users Agencies Insurance Competitors
Intermediaries
Consultants
Customers Web Communities
Managers Third Parties
Shareholders Engineers Banks eBusinesses
Suppliers
Contractors Employees

PEOPLE ORGANIZATIONS
Needs Experience
Aspirations AS-IS OUTCOME Learning Benefits
Wants Target &
Relationships
Context
SERVICE Target &
Context
Gaps
Side Effects
Goals Constraints TO-BE (Value-Cocreation) IF-REDONE Sacrifices
Target &
Disputes
Target &
Responsibilities Context Context
Unintended Consequences
Expectations
TECHNOLOGY/ SHARED Insights

ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION
Procedures
Regulations
Policies
Hardware
Buildings Vehicles Flowcharts Plans
Applications
Diagrams
/ Schematics
Equipment Instructions Rules 98
Tools Templates
Infrastructure Software
Schedules

What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?

Design/
Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
“service science is “a service system is a
the transdisciplinary study of human-made system to improve
service systems & provider-customer interactions
value-cocreation” and value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resource
Marketing access via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,
one piece at a time.”

The ABC’s:
The provider (A)
and a customer (B)
transform a target (C)

Computer Science/
Artificial Intelligence Economics & Law Operations

Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth
systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern
transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare
food & education city state nation
disciplines supply chain water & energy
products & electricity
cloud building & hospitality banking & family
&work secure scale laws
waste construction & finance
behavioral sciences
Customer
stakeholders

e.g., marketing

Provider management sciences
e.g., operations
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
political sciences
Authority
e.g., public policy
learning sciences
Competitors e.g., game theory
and strategy
cognitive sciences
People
e.g., psychology
resources

system sciences
Technology
e.g., industrial eng.
information sciences
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Information
e.g., computer sci
organization sciences
Organizations
e.g., knowledge mgmt

History social sciences
change

e.g., econ & law
(Data Analytics)
decision sciences
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Future e.g., stats & design
(Roadmap)
run professions
Run
e.g., knowledge worker
Transform
value

(Copy)
transform professions
e.g., consultant
Realize Value (To-Be)
Innovate innovate professions
(Invent)
e.g., entrepreneur


IBM’s Leadership Changes

IBM has 426,000
employees worldwide
2011 Financials
22% of IBM’s revenue
 Revenue - $ 106.9B
in Growth Market
 Net Income - $ 15.9B
countries; growing at
11% in 2011  EPS - $ 13.44
 Net Cash - $16.6B More than 40% of IBM’s
workforce conducts business
away from an office

55% of IBM’s Workforce
IBM operates in 170 is New to the company in
countries around the globe the last 5 years
Number 1 in patent
generation for 19
100 Years of Business consecutive years ;
& Innovation in 2011 6,180 US patents
awarded in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth
9 time winner of the 5 Nobel
President’s National Laureates
Medal of Technology
& Innovation - latest “Let’s Build a Smarter
award for Blue Gene Planet"
Supercomputer


Up-Skill = New Venture = Graduates with
Smarter Planet skills
= High-Growth
Cycle = Acquisition = IBMer moving from
Acquisition/
New IBM BU
mature BU to acquisition
(Growing)
= IBMer moving into
IBMer on Campus role
(help create graduates = High-Productivity/
University-Region1 with Smarter-Planet skills, Mature IBM BU
help create Smarter Planet
oriented new ventures; (Shrinking)
Refresh skills

University-Region2
IBM


Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains
World as System of Systems
World (light blue - largest)
Nations (green - large)
States (dark blue - medium)
Cities (yellow - small)
Universities (red - smallest)

Cities as System of Systems
Developed Market -Transportation & Supply Chain
Nations -Water & Waste Recycling
(> $20K GDP/Capita) -Food & Products ((Nano)
-Energy & Electricity
-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)
-Buildings & Construction
Emerging Market -Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment
Nations -Banking & Finance
(< $20K GDP/Capita) -Healthcare & Family (Bio)
-Education & Professions (Cogno)
-Government (City, State, Nation)

Nations: Innovation Opportunities
- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)
- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)


~250 years of infrastructure transformations
Installation Crash Deployment
Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity
• Formation of Mfg. industry
1 The I ndust r i al 1771
Panic • Repeal of Corn Laws 1829
Revol ut i on 1797
opening trade

• Standards on gauge, time
A ge of St eam Panic
2 and Rai l ways
1829
1847
• Catalog sales companies 1873
• Economies of scale

A ge of St eel , Depressio • Urban development
3 El ect r i ci t y 1875
n • Support for interventionism
1920
1893
and Heavy
Engi neer i ng • Build-out of Interstate
A ge of Oi l , Crash
4 A ut omobi l es
1908
1929 highways 1974
• IMF, World Bank, BIS
and Mass Pr oduct i on
Coming period of
A ge of I nf or mat i on Credit Crisis
5 and
1971 2008 Institutional Adjustment
and Production Capital
Tel ecommuni cat i ons
Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).


~100 years of US job transformations

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…
 Four I’s
Cultural Information
– Infrastructure
(Quality-of-Life Measures)
– Individuals
– Institutions
– Information
Individuals Institutions
 Four Measures (Skills) (Rules, Jobs)
– Innovativeness
– Equity
– Sustainability Societal Infrastructure
– Resiliency (Technologies & Environment)

Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge

Learning
To Apply Knowledge

Do It Invent It
Exploitation Exploration

Run Transform Innovate

Operations L Internal Incremental

Maintenance
Copy It External Radical

Insurance Interaction Super-Radical

March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.
Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.


Service Science: Conceptual Framework
Ecology
(Populations & Diversity)

Entities Interactions Outcomes
(Service Systems, both (Service Networks, (Value Changes, both
Individuals & Institutions) link, nest, merge, divide) beneficial and non-beneficial)

Identity Value Proposition Governance Mechanism Reputation
(Aspirations & Lifecycle/ (Offers & Reconfigurations/ (Rules & Constraints/ (Opportunities & Variety/
History) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) History)

Access Rights Measures
(Relationships of Entities) (Rankings of Entities)
lose-win win-win prefer sustainable
lose-lose win-lose non-zero-sum
Resources Stakeholders outcomes,
(Competences, Roles in Processes, (Processes of Valuing, i.e., win-win
Specialized, Integrated/Holistic) Perspectives, Engagement)

 Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information
 Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information
 Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors
 Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation
 Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged
Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or
“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.


14B Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate? 10K
Big Bang In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds… Cities
(Natural Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… (Human-Made
Time
World) To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS)
World)

writing
(symbols and scribes,
stored memory
and knowledge)

written laws

ECOLOGY
(governance and
stored control)

sun (energy) money
earth (governed
(molecules & transportable value
stored energy) stored value,
“economic energy”)
bacteria
(single-cell life)

bees (social
sponges transistor
division-of-labor)
(multi-cell life) (routine
cognitive work) universities
(knowledge workers
clams (neurons) printing press (books
trilobites (brains) 200M 60 steam engine (work)

Measuring Impact

 SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment
– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR
• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better
• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures
• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)
• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)
– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities
– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications
– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations
– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions
– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)

 Service Research, a Portfolio Approach
– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)
– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)
– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)
– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)
– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)
– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional
associations)


Who I am
 Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009
– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)
– Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility
– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)
– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs
 Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009
– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards
– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications
– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines
• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)
– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)
– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)
• I advocate for SRII (“one of the founding fathers”)
• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)
 Other background (late 90’s and before)
– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley
– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)
– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)
– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)


Eleven levels of systems

Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example
0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim
1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington
3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified
5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County
7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA
8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA
9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA
10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN


Societal resiliency includes all levels

Matryoska dolls:
Origin Japanese


What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…

Kurzweilai.net

Jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

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