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- 1. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OFMILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Briefing on the Situation in the South-East of Ukraine (19 – 25.05.2016) 1
- 2. VIOLATIONS OF MINSKAGREEMENTSVIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS BY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCESBY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCES Ceasefire violationsCeasefire violations Russian regular forces and illegal armed groups on the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, weapons and ammo supplies by the RF Russian regular forces and illegal armed groups on the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, weapons and ammo supplies by the RF OSCE SMM activities impedimentOSCE SMM activities impediment Withdrawal of heavy weapons violationsWithdrawal of heavy weapons violations
- 3. CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONSCEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS BYTHE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016 In total,In total, 58985898 ceasefire violationsceasefire violations recorded in 2016recorded in 2016 1205 1661 1549 1483
- 4. USE OF HEAVYWEAPONS BY THE RUSSIANUSE OF HEAVY WEAPONS BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016 Since the beginning ofSince the beginning of 20162016 13191319 violations of withdrawal of heavyviolations of withdrawal of heavy weapons recordedweapons recorded
- 5. VIOLATIONS OF MINSKAGREEMENTSVIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES INBY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 20162016 OSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictionsOSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictions Withdrawal of heavy weapons violationsWithdrawal of heavy weapons violations 11 22 3 4– February – March4 – January 4 – April 1 2
- 6. RUSSIAN FORCES IVO Ukraine’sstate border 3 200 10 65 90 34 IAG RF AF 34 600 6 500 475 227 870 419 585 145 208 91 RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKRRUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKR TERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDERTERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDER
- 7. POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLEFUTURE SCENARIOS THIRD SCENARIOTHIRD SCENARIO –– LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSLARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS FOURTH SCENARIOFOURTH SCENARIO –– FULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSFULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS SECOND SCENARIOSECOND SCENARIO –– LAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEALAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEA FIRST SCENARIOFIRST SCENARIO –– PUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYONDPUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYOND DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONSDONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS
- 8. ARMED FORCES OFUKRAINE COMBAT CASUALTIES AND CIVILIAN CASUALTIES ~ 2000 killed 5000 – 7000 injured up to 150 killed up to 500 injured ~ 750 missing 298killed 80children 1.783 million Internally displaced persons 1992 8251
- 9. IDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFFOF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATIONIDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFF OF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINEFORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINE Commander 3rd dmibde 1 AC Major General Іgor ТIMOFEIEV (nickname - Sokolov) Commander 5th dmibde 1 AC Colonel Іgor KAPLIY (nickname - Kremen) Commander 9 damireg 1 AC Colonel Dmytro BONDARIEV (nickname - Kovalenko) Commander 2 AC Major General Yevgenii NIKIFOROV (nickname - Morgun) Commander 2nd dmibde 2 AC Colonel Andrei RUZINSKIY (nickname – Niefiodov) Commander 4th dmibde 2 AC Colonel Piotr BOLGAREV Commander 7th dmireg 2 AC Colonel Aleksander BUSHUIEV (nickname - Kolosov) Commander 11 motreg 1 AC Lt. Colonel Roman TITOV Commander 2 AC Major General Yevgenii NIKIFOROV (nickname - Morgun)
- 10. SITUATIONSITUATION IN “DLNR”AND CRIMEAIN “DLNR” AND CRIMEA 1. Continued manipulation with the Minsk agreements compliance by the Russian Federation and “DLNR” – O. Zakharchenko statement about the local elections postponed for the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017 and the denial of the possibility of international police mission deployment. 2. Secret involvement of the Crimean criminal groups to the RF State Duma election process in exchange for loyalty of the Russian power structures - 18 - 19.05.2016 informal meeting in Crimea of the RF President Assistant Mr..Surkov with representatives of local criminals. 3. "DNR" authorities declaration of the possibilities to simplify the access of regional entrepreneurs to markets in Russia - 19.05.2016 Director of scientific production Center for Standardization, Metrology and Certification in DNR” Mr. I. Podinovski announced the start of “certificates of DNR production conformity” issueing process.
- 11. ATO AREA SITUATIONATOAREA SITUATION 1. Continued augmentation of forces and means of intelligence and electronic warfare along the line of contact. Reconnaissance activity (UAV DRG), fire weapons (mortars and artillery), jamming (R-330 “Zhytel” and “Leyer-3”) and electronic interception of UAVs at the tactical depth of ATO defense forces formations. 2. The preparatory work for the UAV usage to defeat targets in tactical and operational-tactical depth of ATO defence forces; 1АC UAV company received 250 units of special explosive devices to execute certain tasks. 3. UAV and EW units (1АС, 2АС) training carried out by the RF AF specialists for the application of new attack and reconnaissance UAV, “Арбалет-МР” small interference complexes and multifunctional radio monitoring systems, РП-377ЛА “Лорандит” direction finding and suppression.
- 12. CONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROMTHE SITUATIONCONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROM THE SITUATION WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTWITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT 1. RF leadership continue imposing on international community own approaches regarding formation of the system of European security trying to renew its influence on former soviet countries and avoid further NATO extension to the East of the Europe. 2. RF leadership have activated international political-economical and public- outreach activities with the countries, which didn`t join international sanctions against Russia, in order to minimize the budget loss from the acting restrictions of the West. 3. RF leadership far and wide provides low intensity conflict support on the East of Ukraine with the aim of the usage of its negative consequences on political- economical situation in Ukraine and in the interest of the international legitimization of Crimean annexation. 4. Activation of local combat activities of 1АK and 2АK of “DNR/LNR” possibly will be directed at the attempts to capture separate important infrastructure objects of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (steam power plant and water-storage reservoir), that is impossible nowadays without involvement of the regular RF AF units.
- 13. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OFMILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Thank You for Your attention! 13