Situation development in the context of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict

EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINSEVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS
1.1. RF-MoldovaRF-Moldova
28-30.03.201628-30.03.2016 - visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of RF G.Karasin to Moldova aimed at- visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of RF G.Karasin to Moldova aimed at
discussing cooperation enforcing in the trading sphere (cancelation of RF restriction on Moldaviandiscussing cooperation enforcing in the trading sphere (cancelation of RF restriction on Moldavian
goods export and unhampered rotation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria);goods export and unhampered rotation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria);
Lobbying its interests in Gagauzia RF authorities (unofficially) provided a range of preferences inLobbying its interests in Gagauzia RF authorities (unofficially) provided a range of preferences in
controlling of Moldavian and Gagauzian export to RF to the Russian oligarch Y.Yakubov (originallycontrolling of Moldavian and Gagauzian export to RF to the Russian oligarch Y.Yakubov (originally
Gagauzian). It is expected to have loyal attitude to Kremlin in the region in return.Gagauzian). It is expected to have loyal attitude to Kremlin in the region in return.
2.2. RF-ItalyRF-Italy
25.03.201625.03.2016 -- there was conducted a visit of the Ministerthere was conducted a visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy P.Gentiloni to RF. Heof Foreign Affairs of Italy P.Gentiloni to RF. He
discussed with Lavrov a possibility to resume the dialog indiscussed with Lavrov a possibility to resume the dialog in «2+2»«2+2» format between Ministers of Foreignformat between Ministers of Foreign
Affairs and Defence Ministers and ways of bilateral cooperation in different scopes in the state ofAffairs and Defence Ministers and ways of bilateral cooperation in different scopes in the state of
sanctions imposed on RFsanctions imposed on RF
3.3. RF – Czech RepublicRF – Czech Republic
25.03.201625.03.2016 - there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Industry and Trading of RF D.Manturov to- there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Industry and Trading of RF D.Manturov to
Czech Republic aimed at widening economical cooperation in the state of sanctions imposed on RFCzech Republic aimed at widening economical cooperation in the state of sanctions imposed on RF
SITUATION DEVELOPMENTSITUATION DEVELOPMENT
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICTIN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINSEVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS
1. Information company supported by state bodies and controlled media agencies of RF against1. Information company supported by state bodies and controlled media agencies of RF against
Ukrainian state leadership is still going on.Ukrainian state leadership is still going on. There have been stimulated:There have been stimulated: ««round tablesround tables»» conducting,conducting,
propagandistic expositions and different forums where Ukrainian ex-politicians, who currently hiding inpropagandistic expositions and different forums where Ukrainian ex-politicians, who currently hiding in
RF, were involved. RF mass media widely publicized “facts and evidence of war crimes offended byRF, were involved. RF mass media widely publicized “facts and evidence of war crimes offended by
Ukrainian troops” against local population in Donbas;Ukrainian troops” against local population in Donbas;
2.2. 25.03.201625.03.2016 V.Putin in Moscow at the assembly of Russian union of manufacturers andV.Putin in Moscow at the assembly of Russian union of manufacturers and
businessmen confirmed RF authorities’ readiness to decrease fiscal pressure and to soften criminalbusinessmen confirmed RF authorities’ readiness to decrease fiscal pressure and to soften criminal
responsibility for minor economical offends and indirectly stated that assets withdrawal from Ukraineresponsibility for minor economical offends and indirectly stated that assets withdrawal from Ukraine
was not reasonable.was not reasonable.
3.3. 25.03.201625.03.2016 State Duma of RF passed in the first reading the law “Concerning RF residence permitState Duma of RF passed in the first reading the law “Concerning RF residence permit
providing to the refuges of Ukraine in simplified procedure” in the framework of the Program ofproviding to the refuges of Ukraine in simplified procedure” in the framework of the Program of
demographic situation improvement and decreasing lack of labor force in the problematic Russiandemographic situation improvement and decreasing lack of labor force in the problematic Russian
regions (325 thousand refuges have applied for residence permit)regions (325 thousand refuges have applied for residence permit)
4.4. 23.03.201623.03.2016 in Moscow “the head of the Republic of Crimea” S.Aksionov giving press-conferencein Moscow “the head of the Republic of Crimea” S.Aksionov giving press-conference
devoted to the II Yalta International Economy Forum (14-16.03.16) revealed the way of coping withdevoted to the II Yalta International Economy Forum (14-16.03.16) revealed the way of coping with
international sanctions. It is establishment of enterprises on the inland part of RF and their consequentinternational sanctions. It is establishment of enterprises on the inland part of RF and their consequent
acting in the Crimeaacting in the Crimea
SITUATION DEVELOPMENTSITUATION DEVELOPMENT
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICTIN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

MAIN EVENTS IN THE OMAIN EVENTS IN THE OССCUPIED TERRITORIESCUPIED TERRITORIES
1.1. The "DNR" continue to work on implementing the norms of the Russian legislation. Particular
attention is paid to the sphere of customs regulation, freedom of conscience and religion, as well as the
fight against terrorism. At the same time, the leadership of the Russian Federation organized training of
the representatives of "DLNR" in the Russian state legislature organs (nowadays the number of
representatives of "DLNR" study peculiarities of the Russian legislative practice in the upper house of
the Russian State Duma;
2.2. 23/03/2016 A.Zaharchenko within strengthening of "ideological component" announced the
establishment in "DNR" “state” institutions and enterprises the positions of political leaders;
33.. As part of the "international legitimacy“ of "DNR" and the Crimea occupation:
the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia's parliament approved a memorandum of inter-
parliamentary cooperation with the "DNR" (with the “LNR" is planned to do the same in the near future);
in Moscow between the Occupational “Government of the Crimea" and the federal state
enterprise "ITAR-TASS" an agreement on cooperation is signed in the framework of the distribution by
"ITAR-TASS" the "truthful" information about the situation in the Crimea in the global information space;
4. Lack of adequate funding by the Russian Federation leads to a further deterioration in the
socio-economic situation in "DLNR." Suspended payment of full salary and various types of social
assistance, measures are being taken to intimidate the population to limit the exit of "DLNR citizens" on
the territory controlled by Ukraine.
SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OFSITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF
RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTRUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

Up to 2 BTG
1 CTG
РТГрРТГр –– до 11до 11
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
Russian Federation ArmedRussian Federation Armed
Forces composition on theForces composition on the
territories of Donetsk andterritories of Donetsk and
Luhansk (LNR/DNR)Luhansk (LNR/DNR)
–– up to 7 200up to 7 200
–– up toup to 117 (+110117 (+110 atat
storage bases)storage bases)
–– up toup to 460460
air defenseair defense
systemssystems
launcherslaunchers
««TochkaTochka--UU»»
CTGCTG –– up to 9up to 9
Up to 10 BTG
7 CTG
Up to 3 BTG
1 CTG
Up to 1 BTG
RUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCESRUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCES
COMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH UKRAINECOMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH UKRAINE

RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINERF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE
V.Surkov, RF President assistant, has been recognized as.Surkov, RF President assistant, has been recognized as «the main constructorthe main constructor»»
of hybrid warfare regarding Ukraineof hybrid warfare regarding Ukraine ((he is using the termhe is using the term ««the first non-linear warthe first non-linear war»).»). HeHe
keeps the position ofkeeps the position of ««the main curatorthe main curator»» from Putin`s administration on the occupied territory offrom Putin`s administration on the occupied territory of
Donbas and examines the expansion asDonbas and examines the expansion as ««natural state of the sound countrynatural state of the sound country».».
It is V.Surkov, who inIt is V.Surkov, who in 20052005 introduced the termintroduced the term ««Russian peaceRussian peace»» in a present-dayin a present-day
political domainpolitical domain and he was one of the originators of new holiday of Russian peaceand he was one of the originators of new holiday of Russian peace — «— «TheThe
Day of national unityDay of national unity».». The year before Crimean annexationThe year before Crimean annexation,, inin 20132013 it was hanging the map ofit was hanging the map of
Russian empire in the drawing room of V.Surkov, where Crimea has already been the part ofRussian empire in the drawing room of V.Surkov, where Crimea has already been the part of
Russia.Russia.
NowadaysNowadays hybrid warfarehybrid warfare ((another namesanother names –– proxyproxy
warwar,, non-linear warnon-linear war,, soft power theorysoft power theory,, chaos theorychaos theory,,
synergeticsynergetic,, dissipative structure theorydissipative structure theory,, systematicsystematic
theorytheory)) became the name of existing confrontationbecame the name of existing confrontation
between Russia and Ukraine.between Russia and Ukraine.
Peculiarities of this hybrid warfarePeculiarities of this hybrid warfare do not enable to use absolutely the definition ofdo not enable to use absolutely the definition of
aggression, conceived in the resolution of UN General Assembly inaggression, conceived in the resolution of UN General Assembly in 1974:1974: ««ArticleArticle 1.1.
Aggression is the usage of the force of armsAggression is the usage of the force of arms against sovereigntyagainst sovereignty,, territorial integrity and politicalterritorial integrity and political
independence ofindependence of another state or any other way, contradictory to UN Charteranother state or any other way, contradictory to UN Charter,, as it is defined inas it is defined in
the current definitionthe current definition»»..

Many different views on hybrid warfare were reflected in the following projects ofMany different views on hybrid warfare were reflected in the following projects of
Russian scientistRussian scientist: «: «Hybrid warfare and color revolution in the world policy», «Technologies
of non-bearing settlement of international and internal political conflicts», «Strategies role of
the controlled chaos in formation of new world order», «Ukraine as the general rehearsal:
color revolutions and authority disassembling», «Ukrainian crisis and «controlled chaos»:
trace of «color revolutions» of Arab spring» etc.
A.Manoilo, participating in annual meeting of RF Academy of Military Sciences in
2016, underlined, that the threats of hybrid warfare and color revolutions are real and are
not the propagandist myth, and also some conception elements of confrontation «soft
power» exist in Russian foreign policy, but represented quite schematically and more often
as the copy of the best practices of other countries.
A.Manoilo, doctor of political sciences, professor of
Lomonosov Moscow State University, is one of the
ideologists of the modern Russian state information policy in
specific conditions.
According to his assertion, information and psychological war isinformation and psychological war is
the warfare, planned in accordance with public relations scenariosthe warfare, planned in accordance with public relations scenarios..
Leakage of misinformation and its presentation in the positive lightLeakage of misinformation and its presentation in the positive light
allows to distort the assessment of what is happening, toallows to distort the assessment of what is happening, to
demoralize the citizens and in the short prospect to provide thedemoralize the citizens and in the short prospect to provide the
defection to the side of the informational aggressor.defection to the side of the informational aggressor.

One discussed the ways ofOne discussed the ways of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»» andand ««color revolutioncolor revolution»» threatsthreats
prevention in RF Academy of Military Sciencesprevention in RF Academy of Military Sciences (February-March 2016)(February-March 2016)..
V.Herasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of RF, first deputy MinisterV.Herasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of RF, first deputy Minister
of Defence of RF, gave the main briefingof Defence of RF, gave the main briefing.. According to his words,According to his words, ««the accent of the usedthe accent of the used
methods of confrontation is being shiftedmethods of confrontation is being shifted in the side of wide usage of political, economical,
informational, humanitarian and other non-military measures, realized by means of
involvement of protest potential of the dwellers. All this can be complemented with military
measures of hidden character, including the realization of the events of informational
confrontation and special operation forces activities. One can often use the open force
under the pretext of peacekeeping activity and crisis settlement only at definite stage,
mainly for achieving the final success in the conflict». V.Herasimov also stated that Russia
has got the definite level of mastery in the domain ofin the domain of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»,», in general havingin general having
accumulated and used successfully foreign experienceaccumulated and used successfully foreign experience.. Hereafter, Russia should counterHereafter, Russia should counter
the enemythe enemy,, developing conception ofdeveloping conception of ««soft powersoft power»»..

««Hybrid warfareHybrid warfare»» —— military strategymilitary strategy,, joining togetherjoining together ordinaryordinary,, small and cybersmall and cyber
warfarewarfare.. The key forms ofThe key forms of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»» conduct areconduct are informational activitiesinformational activities,,
psychological actions and cyber attackspsychological actions and cyber attacks directed at structural technical components of statedirected at structural technical components of state
and also its citizensand also its citizens..
««Color revolutionsColor revolutions»» —— collective name of power change processescollective name of power change processes,, such assuch as ««roserose
revolutionrevolution»» in Georgiain Georgia, «, «tuliptulip»» in Kyrgyzstanin Kyrgyzstan, «, «orangeorange»» in Ukrainein Ukraine, «, «jasminejasmine»» in Tunisiain Tunisia
andand ««lotuslotus»» in Egyptin Egypt.. Starting as peaceful meetingsStarting as peaceful meetings, «, «color revolutionscolor revolutions»» as a rule result inas a rule result in
cruel and tough confrontationcruel and tough confrontation stepping out ofstepping out of legal frameworklegal framework..
««Soft powerSoft power»» envisagesenvisages voluntary involvement in its sphere of interests first of all byvoluntary involvement in its sphere of interests first of all by
means of formation of attractive imagemeans of formation of attractive image as a counter toas a counter to ««tough powertough power»,», leaning onleaning on
compulsion and moneycompulsion and money.. It is deemed to be thatIt is deemed to be that ««soft powersoft power»» is actively used by Westernis actively used by Western
countriescountries,, extending values of democracy and human rights along with acquainting wideextending values of democracy and human rights along with acquainting wide
world public with its culture and customer preference.world public with its culture and customer preference.

In hybrid warfare against UkraineIn hybrid warfare against Ukraine,, the aggressorthe aggressor –– Russia – represents itself as aRussia – represents itself as a
victim of Western countries policyvictim of Western countries policy,, forced to protect itself from its expansion on postforced to protect itself from its expansion on post
soviet areasoviet area.. Within this paradigm the actions of RF against Ukraine and worldWithin this paradigm the actions of RF against Ukraine and world
community have been examined as forced.community have been examined as forced.
On the one hand, Ukraine has been examined as the domain of exclusive interestsOn the one hand, Ukraine has been examined as the domain of exclusive interests
of RF, but on the other handof RF, but on the other hand –– as Western instrument implementingas Western instrument implementing ««color revolutionscolor revolutions»»
on post soviet areaon post soviet area.. Agreements signing regarding association between EU and suchAgreements signing regarding association between EU and such
countries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be interpreted as European aggressioncountries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be interpreted as European aggression
act against Russia.act against Russia.
Ideas of protection from supposed threats is used also for formation of domesticIdeas of protection from supposed threats is used also for formation of domestic
conflictconflict.. Threats:Threats: ““juntajunta", “", “fascistsfascists", “", “banderovtsybanderovtsy".". Victims areVictims are ““Russian people inRussian people in
UkraineUkraine".". Besides, no one cares thatBesides, no one cares that ““the victimthe victim"" dies only there, where he/she isdies only there, where he/she is
""protectedprotected"", and feels fine on the territory of, and feels fine on the territory of ““juntajunta"" in places of maximum accumulationin places of maximum accumulation
ofof ««banderovtsybanderovtsy»»..

RF KEY AIM IN CONFLICT WITH UKRAINE is to weaken and decentralize the
country, to place in power prorussian lobby, disrupt Euro-Atlantic course, regaining Ukraine
under the control of Kremlin. Besides, strategy and tactics against Ukraine includes
consecutive steps on realization of examined higher approaches.
UNIQUE FEATURES OF «HYBRID WARFARE»:
aggression without official declaring war with covering-up by country-aggressor its
participation in the conflict;
wide application of irregular military formations (also under the pretext of peaceful settlers);
enemy violation of international norms of combat activities conduct and also acting
international agreements and earlier agreements reached;
activities of political and economical pressure (with formal maintenance of international
economical and other relations between countries);
wide propaganda and counterpropaganda with the usage of «shadowy schemes» with
confrontation in cyberspace.

Analysis ofAnalysis of « «hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»» as a key instrument of Russian geostrategy of revenge  as a key instrument of Russian geostrategy of revenge
has been pictured in more than has been pictured in more than 30 30 publications of well-known Ukrainian politician and publications of well-known Ukrainian politician and
scientistscientist.
The results of strategic researches of V.Horbulin (for the period of 2 years of
Russian-Ukrainian conflict) «irradiate» at secret operations and active events
conducted by RF within the framework of hybrid warfare not only in Ukraine, but also
beyond its borders.
Predictions of V.Horbulin for Ukraine and World community are unpromising – «hybrid
warfare wasn`t started by Ukraine and won`t be finished here. This is just the
beginning»… And the statement of D.Grybauskaite, the President of Lithuania (in
2014!) «If no one stops the terrorist state conducting open aggression against its
neighbor, it will be expanded on Europe and further». And it really has been expanded.
In many sophisticated forms…
                                  Vladimir Horbulin,
advisor of the President of Ukraine, chief of
National Institute of Strategic Sciences,
academician of national Academy of Science of
Ukraine, Doctor of Engineering Science,
professor.
Regularly represents to the world
community the ideas of Ukrainian scientists
regarding undeclared war of Russia against
Ukraine, its geopolitical sources along with
analysis of its new forms and aspects.

In the article of V.Horbulin dated on 25.03.2016 «Hybrid warfare: this is just the
beginning…» there are some key components belonging to the events of the
current Russian practice in framework of «hybrid warfare»:
1.Traditional military measures (usage of permanent military units and equipment
along with special operations forces);
2.Quasimilitary activity (formation and support of illegal armed units, support and
radicalization of separatist movements, formal and informal private military
companies);
3.Operations of non-military influence, by means of special informational operations
and “active events" (including economic pressure, cyberspace operations, diplomacy,
манипуляции manipulations in informational space)

H.Pocheptsov, Ukrainian professor, Doctor of Philology,
acknowledged expert in communicative technologies domain, has
formulated in his projects the name of RF aggression on the
East of Ukraine and Crimean annexation as ««the firstthe first перваяпервая
semantic warsemantic war».».
H.Pocheptsov has stated the following features of
concealed informational and psychological aggression of RF
in South-Eastern part of Ukraine:
military aggression features elimination – «– «green mengreen men, , polite peoplepolite people» ;» ;
features elimination of illegal activities during conquest of powerfeatures elimination of illegal activities during conquest of power – «– «peoples peoples
mayormayor, , everything is our nationaleverything is our national, , peoples self-defencepeoples self-defence, , reunion of historical territoriesreunion of historical territories»;»;
creation ofcreation of negative characteristics of legal authoritynegative characteristics of legal authority – «– «punisherspunishers, , juntajunta, , self-self-
proclaimed Kyiv authorityproclaimed Kyiv authority».».
REVEALED DIRECTIONS OF RF INFORMATIONAL AGGRESSIONREVEALED DIRECTIONS OF RF INFORMATIONAL AGGRESSION
destabilization of social-political situation in Ukraine;
changes provoking in territorial organization of Ukraine;
opposition to cooperation deepening between Ukraine and EU, NATO;
formation of negative image of Ukraine in sight of world community;
discredit of law-enforcement bodies and authorities of Ukraine during fulfillment their tasks in ATO
zone.

CURRENT CONCLUSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OFCURRENT CONCLUSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF
RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTRUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT
1. Leadership of the Russian Federation continues to implement the concept of "hybrid
war" in the phase of maintenance of the low-intensity conflict in the south-east of
Ukraine
2. Kremlin leadership has stepped up measures to deepen the contradictions among the
Western countries on the issue of accepting of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and
recognition of further extension of anti-Russian sanctions;;
3. Economic viability of the "DNR project" within the existing territory entails efforts to
further expand the boundaries of the self-proclaimed "republics" by capturing
Donbass infrastructure on the territory not controlled by them. To achieve this goal the
Russian Federation continues to transfer of military equipment, fuel and ammunition to the
line of demarcation, conducts training of separatists’ units together with troops of the russian
Armed Forces, authorizes the constant bombardment of ATO forces and proactive tactical
groups.
4. The occupied territory of Ukraine turned for Russia in subsidized region, where the
level of industry and agriculture - is low, the proportion of pensioners - is very high, and the
ecological situation - is critical. This leads to frustration of the "republic’s" population

Situation development in the context of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict

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