Energy Efficiency Investments & Valuations :
           Concepts and Missteps


                        James F. Finlay
           VP, Commercial Real Estate Appraisal Manager
             Wells Fargo Bank – RETECHS Los Angeles
          Chair, Real Estate Finance Committee, USGBC-LA




Penn Institute for Urban Research
  Energy Efficient Building Hub
Urban Outfitters, Navy Yard, Philadelphia PA Jan 14, 2013
Top Ten Value, Investment Hurdles
• Why is investment in energy efficiency not at
  the level that it “should” be?

• What will it take to move the dial, increase
  market penetration?

• Recognize the top conceptual hurdles: can be
  counterintuitive, entrenched, undeveloped
Appraisal, banking
1. “As Proposed” does not equal “As Stabilized”
   construction lending underwriting is vastly
   different than collateral with a 3 year stabilized
   history

2. “Seven Tribes of RE” investment risk cultures
   hurdles and options are different per RE asset class

3. “Don’t know does not = Zero”; Disproving the
   null hypothesis – fallacy that “there is no market
   data so value is zero”
Retrofits
4. “One step” deep retrofits vs low hanging fruit
   first – logic vs human’s tendency to act on personal
   experience

5. Time the EE upgrade to the natural CapEx
   investment cycle – do deep retrofits with balanced
   system design in synch with the capex upgrades

6. Deep retrofits need to consider “value beyond
   cost savings” – income, vacancy, expenses, risk,
   reputation, productivity
Investments

7. “The Simple Payback Fallacy” – not including
   reversion makes no sense, is misleading


8. “Without incentives solar, wind, renewable
   don’t pencil” - what about tax and investment
   benefits for oil, coal, gas, nuclear? Cost per kWh key
Behavior, Historic Solutions

9. “Upside opportunity” is not equal to
   “downside loss” – Emotional impact of potential
   gain is half of the impact of losing what you have


10.Complex credit problems have been solved
   before – SBA, hazardous materials impacts: credit
   enhancement and/or expert reports
Behavior, Historic Solutions

9. “Upside opportunity” is not equal to
   “downside loss” – Emotional impact of potential
   gain is half of the impact of losing what you have


10.Complex credit problems have been solved
   before – SBA, hazardous materials impacts: credit
   enhancement and/or expert reports

James Finlay: Top 10 EE Concept Missteps

  • 1.
    Energy Efficiency Investments& Valuations : Concepts and Missteps James F. Finlay VP, Commercial Real Estate Appraisal Manager Wells Fargo Bank – RETECHS Los Angeles Chair, Real Estate Finance Committee, USGBC-LA Penn Institute for Urban Research Energy Efficient Building Hub Urban Outfitters, Navy Yard, Philadelphia PA Jan 14, 2013
  • 2.
    Top Ten Value,Investment Hurdles • Why is investment in energy efficiency not at the level that it “should” be? • What will it take to move the dial, increase market penetration? • Recognize the top conceptual hurdles: can be counterintuitive, entrenched, undeveloped
  • 3.
    Appraisal, banking 1. “AsProposed” does not equal “As Stabilized” construction lending underwriting is vastly different than collateral with a 3 year stabilized history 2. “Seven Tribes of RE” investment risk cultures hurdles and options are different per RE asset class 3. “Don’t know does not = Zero”; Disproving the null hypothesis – fallacy that “there is no market data so value is zero”
  • 4.
    Retrofits 4. “One step”deep retrofits vs low hanging fruit first – logic vs human’s tendency to act on personal experience 5. Time the EE upgrade to the natural CapEx investment cycle – do deep retrofits with balanced system design in synch with the capex upgrades 6. Deep retrofits need to consider “value beyond cost savings” – income, vacancy, expenses, risk, reputation, productivity
  • 5.
    Investments 7. “The SimplePayback Fallacy” – not including reversion makes no sense, is misleading 8. “Without incentives solar, wind, renewable don’t pencil” - what about tax and investment benefits for oil, coal, gas, nuclear? Cost per kWh key
  • 6.
    Behavior, Historic Solutions 9.“Upside opportunity” is not equal to “downside loss” – Emotional impact of potential gain is half of the impact of losing what you have 10.Complex credit problems have been solved before – SBA, hazardous materials impacts: credit enhancement and/or expert reports
  • 7.
    Behavior, Historic Solutions 9.“Upside opportunity” is not equal to “downside loss” – Emotional impact of potential gain is half of the impact of losing what you have 10.Complex credit problems have been solved before – SBA, hazardous materials impacts: credit enhancement and/or expert reports