Ivan Kaufman shares with you a Q2 update for the real estate market, noting CMBS issuance, selected interest rates, average asking rent, foreign investment, multifamily properties and more.

1. Ivan Kaufman
Market Update
Q2 2016
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD16
US CMBS Issuance
Source: Arbor, Commercial Mortgage Alert, Trepp
CMBS Issuance
United States, All Property Types, Billions
Through June 2016, CMBS issuance totaled $30.7 billion, an annual pace of $61.4 billion, and 44% below the $54.5 billion volume
completed through the first six months of last year. At the start of the year, issuance for 2016 was estimated to reach $100 billion, although
now those estimates have been cut substantially. For all of 2015, a total of $101.0 billion of CMBS was issued.

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$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volume ($, Billions)
Source: Arbor, Real Capital Analytics
Total US CMBS Upcoming Loan Maturities
Billions of Dollars, As Of May 2016
Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
Source: Arbor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ICE Benchmark Administration
Selected Interest Rates
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy
remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
U.S. Recession 10-Year Treasury 30-Year Mortgage Rate Federal Funds Rate LIBOR 1-Month U.S. Dollar

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
The average asking rent in the U.S. reached $1,252/unit at the end of the second quarter, a 4.1% increase over the $1,203/unit average
reported one year ago and the 27th consecutive quarter of growth. The vacancy rate finished the quarter at 4.5%, up from 4.2% one year
ago, and the highest rate in three years.
Source: Arbor, Reis
Average Asking Rent and Vacancy
United States, Multifamily
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Asking Rent ($/Unit) Vacancy (%)

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
Foreign Investment in U.S. Multifamily Properties
Volume, Billions of U.S. Dollars
$0.0
$4.4
$8.8
$13.2
$17.6
$22.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
YTD16
Source: Arbor, Real Capital Analytics
* Includes $5.4 billion purchase of Peter Cooper Village & Stuyvesant Town

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
U.S. Recession
Source: Arbor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Growth
Total nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 287,000 jobs in June. The largest gains were measured in leisure and hospitality,
health care and social assistance, and financial activities sectors. Employment also increased in information, mostly reflecting the return of
workers from the Verizon strike.
United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted
-900.0
-600.0
-300.0
0.0
300.0
600.0
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
Monthly Change 12-Month Moving Average

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Ivan Kaufman - Market Update Q2 2016
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Apr-33to
Apr-37
Jul-38to
Jan-45
Nov-45to
Oct-48
Nov-49to
Jun-53
Jun-54to
Jul-57
May-58to
Mar-60
Mar-61to
Nov-69
Dec-70to
Oct-73
Apr-75to
Dec-79
Aug-80to
Jun-81
Dec-82to
Jun-90
Apr-91to
Feb-01
Dec-01to
Nov-07
Jul-09to
Current
Time Between Recessions (Months) Average
Source: Arbor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Bureau of Economic Research
Time Between Recessions (1933 to Current)
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Longest Time Between Recessions (Apr-91 to Feb-01): 119 mo.
Average Time Between Recessions: 60 mo.
Time Since Previous Recession: 84 mo.

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About Us
Founded by Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman, Arbor, LLC and Arbor Commercial Funding, LLC are national direct lenders
specializing in loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial
real estate assets. Arbor is a 2013 Top 10 Fannie Mae DUS® Multifamily Lender by volume, a Freddie Mac Program Plus®
Seller/Servicer and Small Balance Loan lender, an FHA Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)/LEAN Lender, a HUD-
approved LIHTC Lender as well as a CMBS, Bridge and Mezzanine lender, consistently building on its reputation for
service, quality and flexibility. With a current servicing portfolio of more than $11 billion, Arbor is a primary commercial
loan servicer and special servicer rated by Standard & Poor’s and holds an Above Average rating from Standard & Poor’s.
Arbor is also on the Standard & Poor’s Select Servicer List and is a primary commercial loan servicer and loan level special
servicer rated by Fitch Ratings.
Arbor, LLC also manages Arbor Realty Trust, a real estate investment trust, (REIT), formed to invest in mortgage-related
securities, real estate-related bridge, junior participating interests in first mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred and
direct equity investments and in limited cases, discounted mortgage notes and other real estate related assets. Arbor is
headquartered in Uniondale, NY, with full-service lending offices throughout the United States. For more information
about Arbor, visit www.arbor.com.
The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news,
research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice;
all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not
warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or
damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past
performance is not indicative of future performance.