The Real Estate Report June/July, local market trends San Francisco: "Buyers' Fatigue?" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. local market trends
The Real Estate Report
SAN FRANCISCO
Buyers' Fatigue?
After batting their heads against the wall for the
past year, buyers are increasingly dropping out of
the market.
While multiple offers are still quite common, the
number of offers on any property have decreased.
Although closed sales of single-family homes were
up from April, they were still below year ago levels.
It’s tempting to say we’re heading into a correction,
but I believe we will experience a flattening of the
market for the next six months.
MAY MARKET STATISTICS
Prices of homes were essentially flat in May, while
the prices for condos/lofts rose with the average
price reaching a new high. The median price for
single-family, re-sale homes was up 3.8% from last
May, while the median price for condos/lofts rose
14.7%..
Single-family, re-sales home sales fell 6.1% year-
over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes has
been over 100% for twenty-six of the past twenty-
seven months. It was 114.2% last month.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes continued to drop, falling 0.5 of a point
to -11.9. Sales momentum for condos/lofts
dropped 4.6 points to -2.7.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes was down 2.1 points to
14.8. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was
down 0.3 of a point to +11.8.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
The median price of condos/lofts rose 5.5% from
April. Year-over-year, the median price was up
14.7%.
Condo/loft sales dropped 21.7% compared to last
May.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the twenty-seventh month in a row: 107.6%.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and your options.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
JUNE/JULY 2014
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2
> HOME STATISTICS ..............................2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4
May 14 Apr 14 May 13
Home Sales: 217 207 231
Median Price: 1,100,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,060,000$
Average Price: 1,495,170$ 1,500,863$ 1,549,607$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 114.2% 111.8% 108.0%
Days on Market: 25 35 31
May 14 Apr 14 May 13
Condo Sales: 285 305 364
Median Price: 955,000$ 905,000$ 832,500$
Average Price: 1,177,371$ 1,122,513$ 988,099$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 107.6% 107.3% 104.7%
Days on Market: 29 31 37
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 12% 14% 70% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 4% 9% 43% Apr-08 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 12% 20% 57% Jul-08 Jan-12
12-month 5% 16% 40% Aug-08 Jan-12
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2014 & Peak & Trough
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
9
FMAM J J A S OND 1
0
FMAM J J A S OND 1
1
FMAM J J A S OND 1
2
FMAM J J A S OND 1
3
FMAM J J A S OND 1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com

2. Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the Na-
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as
compiled by HSH.com. The av-
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Mortgage rates see first increase in weeks
June 6, 2014 -- For the most part, interest rates have
defied gravity this spring, or at least seem to be
bending some economic laws, as they have man-
aged to slide to year-ago levels despite an economy
which is obviously moving at a quicker pace than the
backwards one from the first quarter of this year. If
the economy is growing and continues to, and if the
Federal Reserve continues its regular trimming of
QE, it only stands to reason that mortgage rates
would be more likely to firm than not. However, any
number of events have worked to the benefit of mort-
gage shoppers so far this year, but it would be wrong
to think that this will last forever.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --
found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-
rate mortgages increased by three basis points
(0.03%) to 4.21%. The FRMI's 15-year companion
sported a rise of four basis points (0.04%) from the
prior week's value, increasing to 3.42%. The popular
FHA-backed 30-year FRM moved up two basis
points nudging it to 3.93% for the week. The overall
5/1 Hybrid ARM increased by four basis points
(0.04%) to 3.05% for the week.
The economy continues along at a modest pace, but
certainly one running at a faster than the first quarter
retreat we endured just a few short months ago. It
remains an open question whether mortgage and
other interest rates can continue to hold at these low
levels as we continue to chug along. In a troubled
world, investing here remains the safest play, and we
continue to see this in both record-high reading for
stock indexes and downward pressure on rates. If
growth starts to become more of a global expression
than a domestic one, we will start to see rates move
higher as money moves to other parts of the globe in
search of greater returns. For now, though, the influx
of cash remains a favorable happenstance for Ameri-
can mortgage borrowers and should continue to help
provide at least some support for a housing industry
that can still use all the help it can get in many ways.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
0
9
FMAM J J A SOND 1
0
FMAM J J ASOND 1
1
FMAM J J ASOND 1
2
FMAM J J A SOND 1
3
FMAM J J ASOND 1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,100,000$ 1,495,170$ 217 25 114.2% 3.8% -3.5% -6.1% 0.0% -0.4% 4.8%
D1: Northwest 1,550,000$ 1,628,797$ 18 18 117.5% 7.3% -7.5% -14.3% -2.4% -20.6% -10.0%
D2: Central West 979,000$ 1,128,254$ 39 18 118.1% 15.2% 26.3% -4.9% -7.6% -3.4% 2.6%
D3: Southwest 712,500$ 831,694$ 18 27 113.9% -16.2% -9.7% 38.5% -22.8% -20.0% 28.6%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,420,000$ 1,440,935$ 27 21 113.3% 17.4% 5.8% -12.9% 8.2% 0.8% 50.0%
D5: Central 1,775,000$ 1,989,138$ 29 18 115.5% 12.7% 12.6% -17.1% -6.5% -5.4% -9.4%
D6: Central North 2,700,000$ 2,702,080$ 3 17 117.7% -0.9% -1.0% -25.0% 37.9% 33.5% -25.0%
D7: North 3,700,000$ 4,488,742$ 12 14 111.7% 3.1% 1.5% -50.0% -15.3% -20.6% 50.0%
D8: Northeast 7,150,000$ 7,150,000$ 2 136 97.3% 226.9% 226.9% 0.0% 160.0% 177.7% -33.3%
D9: Central East 1,405,000$ 1,424,382$ 18 22 120.8% 42.2% 35.8% -30.8% 39.1% 31.2% -28.0%
D10: Southeast 686,750$ 735,456$ 50 37 112.0% 18.4% 27.4% 51.5% 1.0% 12.4% 11.1%
May Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-06
04-06
07-06
10-06
01-07
04-07
07-07
10-07
01-08
04-08
07-08
10-08
01-09
04-09
07-09
10-09
01-10
04-10
07-10
10-10
01-11
04-11
07-11
10-11
01-12
04-12
07-12
10-12
01-13
04-13
07-13
10-13
01-14
04-14
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-
ess, in San Francisco continues to drop. They were
down 2% in April from March. Year-over-year, notices
were down 12.5%. There were 49 notices in April.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
sale, dropped 32.1% from March, and they were down
66.7% year-over-year. There were 19.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments.
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
There were 19 sales cancelled last month.
Only three homes went back to the bank in March.
There are currently 110 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 28.8% year-over-year. The banks now own ap-
proximately 235 properties in the city.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
0
9
FMAM J J ASOND 1
0
FMAM J J ASOND 1
1
FMAM J J ASOND 1
2
FMAM J J ASOND 1
3
FMAM J J ASOND 1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0
9
FMAM J J A S OND 1
0
FMAM J J A S OND 1
1
FMAM J J A S OND 1
2
FMAM J J A S OND 1
3
FMAM J J A S OND 1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 955,000$ 1,177,371$ 285 29 107.6% 14.7% 19.2% -21.7% 5.5% 4.9% -6.6%
D1: Northwest 1,280,000$ 1,252,462$ 13 32 110.8% 60.0% 45.7% -13.3% 70.1% 59.6% -23.5%
D2: Central West 824,000$ 868,250$ 4 44 113.4% -7.3% 10.3% 0.0% 6.2% 8.0% -20.0%
D3: Southwest 835,000$ 668,200$ 5 19 114.8% 72.2% 53.4% 66.7% 59.0% 11.5% 66.7%
D4: Twin Peaks 600,000$ 708,179$ 7 20 114.6% 29.0% 33.7% -22.2% 9.8% 32.9% -12.5%
D5: Central 1,085,000$ 1,197,032$ 31 26 117.8% 14.2% 19.9% -47.5% 13.1% 12.5% -31.1%
D6: Central North 900,000$ 918,770$ 31 29 111.2% 4.8% 3.2% -13.9% -1.5% -8.7% 24.0%
D7: North 1,300,500$ 1,513,300$ 20 21 106.8% 13.1% 15.7% -50.0% -6.1% -11.6% -54.5%
D8: Northeast 1,015,000$ 1,305,813$ 50 31 103.9% 28.9% 21.9% -19.4% 4.6% 0.0% 22.0%
D9: Central East 950,000$ 1,187,826$ 123 28 105.6% 18.2% 20.8% -2.4% 8.0% 16.8% 8.8%
D10: Southeast 248,469$ 248,469$ 1 197 100.0% -42.2% -38.7% -88.9% -56.6% -53.0% -66.7%
May Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0
8
FMAMJ JASOND0
9
FMAMJ JASOND1
0
FMAMJ JASOND1
1
FMAMJ JASOND1
2
FMAMJ JASOND1
3
FMAMJ JASOND1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0
8
FMAMJ JASOND0
9
FMAMJ JASOND1
0
FMAMJ JASOND1
1
FMAMJ JASOND1
2
FMAMJ JASOND1
3
FMAMJ JASOND1
4
FMAM
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com