The document discusses Israel's strategic profile and security challenges from the past to 2025, analyzing key milestones in Israel's security strategy and dilemmas in managing security. Scenarios for Israel's regional role and security environment in 2025 are explored, including the potential for interstate conflicts or a nuclear arms race depending on trajectories of regional powers and external stakeholders.

1. Israel in 2025
Regional Scenarios and the Challenges of
Strategic Profiling
Dan Claudiu Degeratu
Center for Security Analyses and Prevention

2. Futures Studies/Strategic Foresight
● Forecasting ● Past to Present to
Linear Future
e.g. Simplified
strategic planning
● Scenarios ● Past and Future
Multi-directional into the Present
e.g. Multi-level
strategy

3. Scenario typology (Börjeson L. 2005)
Scenarios
Predictive Explorative Normative
Forecasts What- if External Strategic Preserving Transforming
What can happen? What can happen if we
act in a certain way?

4. Global Studies, Middle East & “scenario-space”
Mapping
NATO Multiple Futures Study
Shell Scenarios 2025 - Middle East: Open Doors & Low Trust Globalisation
DCDC Global Strategic Trends 2040- Pivotal regions: Wider Middle East
EUISS Global Governance 2025 Scenario IV
Walter J. Clemens -From AD 2000 to AD 2025: six alternative futures
US National Intelligence Council - Global Scenarios to 2025 -Fragmented World
The Millenium Project
CERI - What Might de Middle East Look by 2025
M. Ayoob - The Middle East in 2025
The Futurist - The Worst Case Scenario
RAND - ”The Day After...in Jerusalem”
Richard L. RusselL - The Middle East’s Nuclear Future
Dainel Hamilton & Kurt Volker - Transatlantic 2020: A tale of four futures.

5. Baseline scenarios,
The baseline scenario is usually a simple projection forward of
the current situation based on the initial set of drivers and
assumptions.
"History
repeats itself"

6. Nominal Scenarios & Meta-scenarios
Meta-scenario =continuum
of nominal scenario and
rules for generating
scenarios

7. Middle East NATO Multiple US National Intelligence
2025 matrix Futures Study Council
Baseline -large-scale conventional - Large parts of the region will become less
confrontation in the next volatile than today
scenario 15‐20 years is unlikely - arms race
- lethal technology is expected to become
more accessible.
Israel Centrality energy, cyberspace, Resolution of the Syrian and Palestinian
space and maritime security conflicts with Israel
Regional Power destabilisation and - potential new nuclear sates
absence of governance - fragile states with access to nuclear
Grid technology
- Turkey islamic and nationalist model for
other modernising states
Major External NATO to respond to a Potential security guarantees from
wide variety of security international community and/or US.
Stakeholders' challenges
Strategic
Posture
Strategic Diadic potential interstate conflicts - competition for influence within the region,
including via proxies
Interactions - potential nucelar arms race

8. Israeli Security Strategy Milestones
- existential threat in an hostile Arab world & six wars,.
-pre 1967 - pre-emptive strikes to transfer the war on
enemy territory
- after 1973 - Yom Kipur War - new regional balance,
rebuilding IDF as credible capability, defensive posture
+ counter-attack,
- 80s- qualitative Israel’s arms competition with her
Arab opponent, a greater predilection for pre-emptive
strikes was adopted,June 1981 attack on Iraqi reactor
Efraim Inbar (2008): "In order to maintain the credibility
of its deterrent power, Israel has to react to any
infringement of the geographic and strategic status
quo, as defined by Sharon."

9. Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-2
-1989 the end Cold War
- the Iraqi missile attacks in 1991: the Israeli Air Force
(IAF) could no longer protect the rear, Israel lost its
escalation dominance,
-1991 Madrid Conference
- 1992 -Yitzhak Rabin: ‘We live today in a period in which
the threat to the very existence of Israel has been
reduced.’

10. Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-3
- 1992 - international cooperation regimes MTCR, CWC,
United Nations arms registrar,
- December 1995, Peres even suggested a US–Israeli
Defense Treaty
-1994 Israel-Jordan the peace treaty
-1996 Israel -Turkey military agreements- a new balance of
power in the Middle East, power politics despite the
removal of the superpower competition in the area
2000s security challenges:
1. the nuclear threat from Iran
2. low-intensity conflict with Hizballah and thePalestinians

11. Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-4
- 2006 Lebanon War. Strategic Chief of Staff Halutz ‘The
way we finish this will have ramifications for the entire
Middle East’
- 7 strategic errors - Efraim Inbar: lack of preparations,
unrealistic goals, conduct of war and its ending.
- ”The government never declared a state of emergency”
-Halutz remarked that ‘short range rockets are not a
decisive weapon’- strategic cumulative effect
-protecting the home front was not part of the IDF’s initial
strategic planning for the 2006 War and was not even
mentioned in the document on strategic goals
-2008 -Operation Cast Lead in Gaza

12. Security Management Dilemmas
-van Creveld-2006 : "As history since Hiroshima shows, the
best, perhaps the only, way to curb war is to deter it with
such overwhelming force as to turn it from a struggle into
suicide. The best way to mitigate it is to use all possible
means to bring it to a speedy end."
- Dan Meridor 2011: " Despite the Israeli intuition and
emotion based on a preference to be on the offensive, this
response must be based on a defense approach.”
- Winograd Commision
- Goldstone Report- Report of the United Nations Fact
Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict
- INSS- Strategic Survey for Israel 2012-2013: 9 threats, 7
opportunities

13. Security Management Dilemmas - 2
- ”Red lines” versus Proactive policy,
- Synchronized Steps toward the Bi-national
state solution versus unilateral measures for
partial agreements - e.g. Jerusalem
international status
- Moral advantage as strategic advantage ?
(Gray, C. Gray 2010)

14. Strategic Profile and Competitive Strategies
(Porter, 1980)
Strategic Dominance Status quo
Regional
Interests
Survival
Interests

15. Israel Strategic Profile Dynamics
(Wright 1987)
Pre- 2008 2009-2013? 2014 - 2025
Very Good
National
Security
Poor
Low Regional Security Level High

16. Dan Claudiu Degeratu
claudiu.degeratu@gmail.com
www.cbap.cz
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