Irrigation reforms in Asia: A systematic review of 108 case studies of IMT/PIM (Aditi Mukherji)

1. Aditi Mukherji, Blanka Fuleki, Tushaar Shah, Diana Suhardiman, Mark Giordano and Parakrama Weligamage Irrigation reforms in Asia: A systematic review of 108 case studies of IMT/PIM Presented at IFAD Rome 18 th April 2011

5. 6 Step Research Method

6. Indicators of success Name of the indicator Scoring system Outcome indicators Irrigation service fee collection rate 1= if it has gone up 0= no change or declined Financial viability of WUA 1= if it has improved 0= no change or deteriorated Functional condition of infrastructure 1= if it has improved 0= no change or deterioration Equitable distribution of water 1= if it has gone up 0= no change or declined Reliability and adequacy in water distribution 1= if it has gone up 0= no change or declined Popular awareness and participation in WUA activities 1= if it has gone up 0= no change or declined Reduction in frequency of disputes 1= Yes 0= No or got worse Impact indicators Crop related impacts (production, yields, cropping pattern, cropped area) 1= If any one of these registered an increased after transfer 0= Otherwise Livelihoods and household parameters (income, wage, employment, poverty reduction, reduction in forced migration) 1 = if any of these have gone up after transfer 0=Otherwise

7. Distribution and location of cases

8. Methodological critique of cases Very few studies that combine before after and with-without 1/3 rd of them are short term assessments

9. Distribution of success/failure as per CSS Region Success Failure S Asia 18 20 E Asia 7 2 SE Asia 12 24 C Asia 4 14

10. Finding patterns in success: Success by type Lift and pump schemes succeed marginally more

11. Success by size of system Schemes serving lesser number of farmers succeed marginally more Small schemes succeed marginally more

12. Success by complexity Simple schemes succeed marginally more

13. Success by crops grown Non-paddy systems succeed significantly more than paddy systems

14. Rehabilitated systems fare better than non-rehabilitated ones

15. Cases where full O&M is transferred fare better

16. PIM, when implemented on ground by government staff are more likely to fail

17. Multivariate analysis: Logit regression Correctly predicts 76.1% of the cases coefficient std. error t-ratio slope Constant -2.83790 1.63066 -1.740 STORAGE 0.118054 1.33783 0.08824 0.0292580 SIZE 0.359527 0.757043 0.4749 0.0888251 CROP 1.69093 0.885667 1.909** 0.388653 NEWREHAB 0.233163 0.965311 0.2415 0.0581703 IMPLMNT 2.01105 0.846505 2.376* 0.457774 LVLTR 0.0510247 0.776525 0.06571 0.0126965 ELECT 0.147760 0.783830 0.1885 0.0366978

19. Courtesy: Randolph Barker

20. Rise of atomistic irrigation and its implications for PIM/IMT

21. Rise of the atomistic irrigation in South Asia.. This calls for entirely different paradigm of water management Whither PIM/IMT? Contours of irrigation is fast changing Net irrigated area under surface irrigation (000’ha) Net irrigated area served by groundwater (000’ ha) 1993-4 2000-1 % change 1993-4 2000-1 % change Andhra Pradesh 2523 2269 -10.1 1678 1829 +9 Bihar & Jharkhand 1762 986.8 -44.0 2029 2111.5 +40.7 MP & Chattisgarh 2140 1279.1 -40.2 1535 2300.9 +49.9 Punjab 1283.4 1168.7 -8.9 2622 2438 -7.1 Rajasthan 1815 1439 -20.7 2702 3450 +27.7 UP & Uttaranchal 3837 2106.6 -45.1 5630 8493 + 50.8 Pakistan Punjab 4240 3740 -11.8 8760 10340 +18 Sind 2300 1960 -14.8 140 200 +42.9 Bangladesh 537 480 -10.7 2124 3462 +63 All areas 22709 17215 -24.2 28437 35762 +25.8

22. PIM/IMT will be difficult to sustain because surface irrigation as a technology of water mobilization and application is being crowded out by atomistic irrigation. Strategy? Reinvent surface systems to support atomistic irrigation Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? FAVORABLE CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH HOMOGENEOUS LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW LOW BRIGHT South Asia Weak Welfare Impossible Diverse; High Egalitarian Very high; intensification and diversification. High BLEAK

23. Best bet for farmer-participatory irrigation management. Larger farms, better levy crop prices and ‘ right’ capitalization will promote PIM. Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH MONO CROPPING LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW LOW CENTRAL ASIA STRONG Welfare +Taxes+ Exports? ??? COTTON/WHEAT; HIGH taxes; LOW? STATIST? lOW; LOW? GOOD

24. Some of the arguments in this section are developed in this book..

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