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IV Global Science Conference on Climate Smart Agriculture Issues/research questions for the agriculture and food systems of 2050

  1. How can co-design of alternative agricultural development pathways help accelerating sustainability transitions in Southern Africa? Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Patricia Masikati, Katrien Descheemaeker, Givious Sisito, Buhle Francis, Olivier Crespo, Elisha N. Moyo, Tariro Chipepera, Roberto O. Valdivia 4th Global Science Conference on Climate Smart Agriculture Issues / research questions for the agriculture and food systems of 2050 28-30 November 2017, Johannesburg, South Africa
  2. WHY sustainability transitions? (Changes in temperature by 2050, A. Ruane) High urgency for new agricultural frontiers in Southern Africa Preparing for deeper change, to an unknown future Governments buy in – new priorities for research, investment, policy directives
  3. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPS) Adapted from Valdivia et al. 2015 National Provincial District Global SSP, Global RAPs, Economic models and socio- economic conditions Prices, production trends Regional Regional RAPS, CCAFS scenarios Key drivers that are likely to affect future bio-physical and socio-economic conditions Drivers Consistency RCP 8.5RCP 4.5 Better understand interplay of key drivers, how these may influence development outcomes
  4. Antle et al. 2015 Regional Integrated Assessments (AgMIP RIA) Protocol-based approach • Integrated modeling framework (climate, crops, livestock, whole farm economics) • Evaluate pathway/scenario uncertainties under future climate, bio-physical, socio-economic conditions • Scaling down, up scenarios, interventions through stakeholder engagement (disaggregation, aggregation) ww j w B. Complex farming systems under different climate change scenarios +2 to 3 oC Precipitation variable: a decrease by 25% is possible Illustrate possible change for multiple farm sub-systems, in particular farming contexts under future bio-physical and socio-economic conditions
  5. Co-learning process, researchers with stakeholders Joint acknowledgement that incremental change is insufficient to lift farmers out of poverty Co-design transitions to more transformative sustainable farming systems Prepare more conducive context for farming, where options cannot be tested in real life situations Inform future-oriented policy and investment processes, at multiple scales and building on and scaling out existing initiatives and partnerships.
  6. Current agricultural systems High poverty (85% below poverty line at 1.25 US/day), with extremely low productivity (maize yield < 500 kg/ha) High potential for integrated interventions (technologies, institutions, policies) to increase on-farm profitability and improve adaptation to climate change. • Step 1. Crop management that increases biomass production per unit land e.g. increasing planting densities, improved dual purpose varieties (>100% increased cereal yields) • Step 2. Reconfiguration of farms for activities that dominate the net returns, e.g. expanding groundnuts; supplementary fodder and concentrate feeding ( > 200% increased groundnut yields) • Step 3. Market incentives that drive improved crop and livestock management, mechanized harvesting and processing (overall 100-330% increased farm net returns) Extremely poor Poor Non-poor 43% 38% 19% extremely poor poor non-poor Extremely poor Poor Non- poor Cultivated land (ha) 1.4 2.0 2.7 Cattle (TLU) 0 5.4 13.9 Family size 6 7 7 Farm heterogeneity in Nkayi district -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 poor Poor poor poor Poor poor poor Poor poor -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 or or or or or or or or or -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 oor oor oor oor oor oor oor oor oor Extremely poor Poor Non poor -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 oor oor oor oor oor oor oor oor oor 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Step1 Step2 Step3 Totalfarmnetreturns(USD) Extremely poor Poor Non poor 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Base Step1 Step2 Step3 Totalfarmnetreturns(USD) Extremely poor Poor Non poor
  7. Future agricultural systems RAP 4: “Green Zimbabwe” Combined with RCP 4.5 and SSP 1, policy orientation towards sustainability - Set more land in value (all) - Expand legumes (all) - Integrate soil fertility management (all) - Increase herd sizes (all) RAP 5: “Grey Zimbabwe” Combined with RCP 8.5 and SSP3, ineffective global institutions, barriers to trade - Market oriented farmers - Expand land and herd sizes - Intensify inorganic soil fertility - Food security oriented farmers - Maintain maize and goats - Work off-farm Climate change adaptation package: Based on transformational changes in context, the adaptation package would consist in the adoption of drought and heat tolerant varieties/ Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS) 5 Now 2050 Business as Usual
  8. Impacts on crop grain yields Maize Groundnuts Cereals Climate change impacts Under improved soil fertility, cereals are sensitive to climate change, regardless of models and soil type • -ve effects RAP 5 > RAP4, soil 3>2>1 with inorganic soil fertility improvement • -ve effects under HD scenarios, +ve effects under HW scenarios Climate change adaptation • Regaining crop life cycle reduces –ve effect of CC on maize • +ve effects RAP 4> RAP 5, DSSAT> APSIM (stronger response to interactions between T, H2O and N) • +ve effects better soil> poor soil Legumes Climate change impacts Legumes are slightly sensitive to climate change under APSIM, stable under DSSAT • -ve effects RAP 5 > RAP4, across soil types • -ve effects under HD scenarios, +ve effects under HW scenarios Climate change adaptation • Drought tolerance reduces –ve impacts of CC on groundnuts • +ve effects RAP 4> RAP 5, DSSAT > APSIM (stronger response to CO2 and available water) Soil type Soil type poor average better poor average better poor average better poor average better
  9. Impacts on farm milk production APSIM DSSAT 1 2 3 1 2 3 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Averageannualmilkproduction(kgfarm−1) labels RAP4_Base RAP5_Base RAP4_HD RAP4_HW RAP5_HD RAP5_HW RAP4_HD_AP RAP4_HW_AP RAP5_HD_AP RAP5_HW_AP Extremely poor Poor Non poor Extremely poor Poor Non poor Climate change impacts • Similar -ve effects under both RAPS and crop model inputs • -ve effects under HD scenarios, +ve effects under HW scenarios • Non-poor hit hard and more at risk • With supplementary feed concentrates – cattle are less dependent on on-farm feed production. Climate change adaptation • Limited effects of crop improvement
  10. Economic impacts of climate change adaptation (HD, HP, DSSAT) Where productivity is currently extremely low, e.g. Nkayi district, investments in sustainability pathways (technologies, institutions, policies) can reduce vulnerability and half poverty by 2050 Lower poverty, and greater impact of adaptation under RAP 4, especially for the extremely poor – gender, food security, nutrition 0 20 40 60 80 100 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 Povetyrate(%ofpeoplelivingfrom lessthan1.25USDperday) current If we continue business as usual if we invest in fast economicgrowth if we invest in sustainable development Farm types Vulnerability (%) Poverty without adaptation (%) Poverty with adaptation (%) % change in poverty rate Extremely poor 26 53 47 -12 Poor 46 25 21 -16 Non poor 38 15 12 -17 Aggregate 37 35 31 -13 Extremely poor 49 84 82 -2 Poor 60 33 29 -13 Non poor 64 22 18 -16 Aggregate 58 53 50 -6 RAP 4 RAP 5 Climate change impacts • Vulnerability RAP 5 > RAP 4 • Extremely poor less vulnerable, for both RAPs • Vulnerability of those with cattle due to feed gaps Climate change adaptation • Lower poverty rate and stronger impact of climate change adaptation under RAP 4, especially for the extremely poor
  11. Discussion: scenarios informing future oriented technologies, institutions, policies Challenge: Prepare enabling environment for scaling climate change adaptation, under uncertain futures Approaches and solutions – clearly acknowledged by decision makers • Scenarios as projections for defining desirable trajectories, research priorities and investment options, prepare future conditions for farming • Having improved farm management today, adaptation to climate change becomes easier • Sustainability pathways to reduce poverty and mitigate destitution, strengthening the link between women, food security and nutrition Possible development outcomes – learning on guidance and influence • Science to fasten decision processes (technical + political) along desired trajectories (credibility, legitimacy, confidence, ownership) • Out of the box testing of transformative interventions, about future worlds that matter, for diverse farming systems • Broader look at food systems, incl. gender, climate change, extreme events, conflict prevention • Bridge communication science and stakeholders, not only on passing information, but analyses and implementation Scale of impact Intensity of impact Farming communities Private sector Support services Enablers
  12. THANK YOU!
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